白银涨至500美元？可能引爆下一轮行情的贵金属交易

我有一个理性的预测，说银价应该能到300到500美元。

I have a rational one that says silver ought to be 3 to $500.

矿业股可能是美国股市里最赚钱的板块。

The miners are probably the most profitable sector in The US stock market.

这是一个长期的强烈信号，表明贵金属板块即将大幅上涨。

That is a long term table pounding signal that the monetary metals complex is about to go eight.

我们通过用一盎司白银除以一盎司黄金，再把结果换算成百分比，来衡量白银相对于黄金的表现。

We measure the relative performance of silver versus gold by dividing an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold and expressing the answer as a percent.

如果你回顾过去五十年的价格走势，峰值分别出现在50美元、19.80美元和20.11美元，但1980年白银相对于黄金的表现只有6.5%。

If you go back and look at that fifty year range on price, peaks at $50, $19.80 and $20.11, so but it's relative performance to go back in 1980 was 6.5%.

记住这一点。

Remember that.

然后在2011年，当银价再次涨到50美元时，它只有黄金价格的3.1%。

Then in 2011 when it went up to 50 again, it was 3.1% of the price of gold.

现在，我们大概只有黄金价格的1.6%。

Right now we're like 1.6% of the price of gold.

如果白银和黄金之间的价差关系也上升，并突破过去五十年的高点，那会怎么样？

What if the spread relationship between silver and gold also goes up and takes out the highs of the last fifty years?

价格已经突破了，为什么相对表现不能呢？

Price did, why not relative performance?

也许白银会涨到黄金价格的10%，彻底突破1980年的高点。

Maybe silver goes to 10% of the price of gold blows out that 1980 high.

别惊讶，因为它相对于黄金的价值已经高得离谱了。

Don't be shocked because its relative value to gold is off the page.

黄金和白银矿业公司也是如此，甚至更甚。

Same is true with gold and silver miners, even more so.

它们相对于从地下挖出来的东西来说，价格低得简直可笑。

They are so underpriced to that which they get out of the ground, that it's almost laughable.

你几乎可以看看矿业公司相对于黄金的价差图，追溯到八十年代的XAU指数。

You almost look at the miners relative to gold on a spread chart, going back nineteen eighties with XAU index.

过去平均是黄金价格的25%。

It used to be on average 25% of the price of gold.

XAU除以一盎司黄金的价格是25%。

XAU divided into an ounce of gold was 25%.

它一度涨到35%，后来又跌到18%，但大体上就在这个区间波动，平均是25%。

It was up to 35 at one point and down to 18% at another, but it lived in this range, average 25%.

2015年的时候，它跌到了4%。

It went to 4% in 2015.

我的意思是，为什么不能跌到零呢？

I mean, why not go to free?

对。

Okay.

而且它在一个长达十三年的区间里波动，上限大约是8.5%。

And it lived in a in a thirteen year wide range that is capped off about eight and a half percent.

这仍然远低于八十年代、九十年代、2000年、2008年等时期的实际情况。

Still well, well below the reality that existed in nineteen eighties, nineteen nineties, 2000, 2008, etcetera.

GDX和黄金的关系也是如此，这是更受欢迎的矿业股。

Same is true with GDX versus gold, more popular mining.

另外，这里面还有20%的银矿股。

Also, it's 20% silver miners in it.

现在它的交易价格是金价的2.07%。

It's trading right now at two point o 7% divided into gold.

如果你看它在图表上的价差关系，它的估值是每个月按金价来计算的。

If you look at its spread relationship on a chart, its valuation is plotted each month divided into ounce of gold.

2008年到2015年有一次崩盘，跌到了难以置信的低点，而且在那里待了十三年，真的，因为它在2013、2014年就进入了那个区间。

There was the collapse that occurred in 2008 through '15, where it went to, you know, unbelievably low levels and lived there for thirteen years, really, because it entered that range in twenty thirteen, fourteen.

但不管怎样，GDX相对金价有三次涨到2.2%的区域。

But anyway, you had three run ups to 2.2% area divided GDX into into gold.

二月份，我们又到了那个位置，2.2。

February, we got up there again, 2.2.

最近因为金属本身下跌，出现了急剧下跌。

We had a sharp drop recently because of the drop in the metals themselves.

矿股也回调了一些。

The miners pull back some.

现在它们又回到了2.07%，这是我最近一次计算的结果。

Now they're back up to two point o 7% today, last calculation I ran.

它们正在向那个三次高点的完美矩形区域移动，如果你是技术分析师，看到那张图表，你会说，天哪，一旦突破，我必须买入。

They're moving back toward that what is three highs in a perfect rectangle that if you're a technician and you looked at that chart, you'd say, golly, I gotta buy that guy when he breaks out.

所以你之前提到25%，你心里有没有什么预测，那个2%会回升到那个水平，让矿企股重新回到那个位置？

So if if you you you mentioned 25% before, is there any forecast in your mind where where that 2% rises back up to that miners get back up to that level?

我们看XAU，因为它有历史数据，所以我们更关注它，因为GDX是2006年才开始的。

When we look at X AU and it has history, therefore we look at it more because GDX only started in 2006.

但如果你看XAU，就像我说的，它长期处于对黄金价值平均25%的水平。

But if you look at X AU, like I said, it lived in this reality of value to gold at an average of 25%.

现在我们在8%以上。

Right now we're above 8%.

好的，所以你可能只是希望再次回到那个区间的中间。

Okay, so you could like just to get in the middle of that range again.

现在，那个区间的底部，让我们更保守一点，那个几十年的区间底部大约是18%，而且反复出现。

Now, the bottom end of that range, let's get even more conservative of that multi decade range was like 18% repeatedly.

那是他的底线，一个技术上的底线。

That was his floor, a technical floor.

一旦跌破，就崩到了4%。

When you broke it, you collapsed to 4%.

好。

Okay.

假设我们回到18%，碰到旧底线的底部，你知道，旧的支撑现在变成了阻力，我们假设一下。

Let's assume we go to 18% and bump the bottom of the old floor with, you know, the old old support now becomes resistance, let's assume.

说实话，在这之间，图表上除了空气什么都没有。

And frankly, there is nothing between here and there other than thin air on that chart.

如果到了那里，那比我们现在的位置翻了一倍还多。

If you go there, that's more than a double and a half of you know, where we are right now.

可以说是翻了一倍多一点点。

It's a double and a quarter, let's say.

顺便说一句，当这个价差扩大，也就是矿企表现优于黄金时，说实话，过去几年里，它们一直在跑赢黄金。

So if by the way, when that spread advances, meaning when the miners do outperform gold, and frankly, over the last couple years, they've been outperforming gold.

大家都没意识到这一点。

People don't realize that.

它们一直在往那个区间的顶部移动。

They've been moving up to the top of that range.

当突破并且价差飙升，有利于矿商时，这总是会转化为两种金属以及矿商的净价格上涨。

When you break out and and surge on that spread favoring the miners, it always converts into net price gain for both metals, for the metals and the miners.

所以从来不是这样的情况：当价差出现并迅速上升时，即使在我们经历了十三年的那个区间内，即使在那段时间里，金属的净价格也随之上涨。

So it's never the case that when the spread emerges and and shoots up, even even in that range that we had for thirteen years, even in those periods, the net price of the metals went up with it.

它把它拉上去，不是这样。

It drags it up, it doesn't.

对，换句话说，矿商跑赢了黄金，但整体趋势仍然是向上的。

Yeah, in other words, the miners beat gold, but it was still doing a net trend upside.

从来不是在平静的市场或下跌的市场中。

It's never in a calm market or a down market.

总是伴随着上涨的市场。

It's always with an up market.

所以当那个价差突破时，我们现在正在逼近它，如果这个月收盘时超过它，我也不会感到意外，我们会把这个数字更新给我们的订阅者。

So when that spread breaks out and we're pushing toward it now, wouldn't shock me we closed the month above it, that we update our subscribers with that number.

我预计市场上涨的节奏和性质会发生巨大变化，因为那个价差将会爆发。

I expect the tone and nature of the markets advance to change dramatically, because that that spread is going to explode.

我的意思是，如果你把它看作一个价格图表，它就是这样，你把价格除以价格。

I mean, if you saw it as just a price chart, which is what it is, you divide price into price.

它太庞大了，你会说这是我见过的最大的教科书式底部。

It's so massive, you would say that's the biggest textbook base I've ever seen.

对吧？

Okay?

当你突破那个底部时，即使只是达到过去几十年现实的下沿，而且我们知道矿商们正在赚得盆满钵满。

And when you break out of that, even just to get to the bottom side of the prior decades of reality, And we know the miners are are making tons.

你知道，没人谈论这个。

You know, nobody's talking about this.

矿商可能是美国最赚钱的行业。

The miners are probably the most profitable sector in The U.

美国。

S.

股市。

Stock market.

大家都在关注半导体公司的财报什么的。

And everybody's looking at, you know, what's this semiconductor's earnings, etcetera.

对。

Okay.

我很喜欢。

I love it.

我们这个频道做的所有事情只有一个目标，就是让你成为一个更敏锐、更明智的投资者，一个能在主流意识到之前就理解影响你财富的宏观力量的人。

Everything we do on this channel has one goal, to make you a sharper, better informed investor, someone who understands the macro forces shaping your money before the mainstream catches on.

但信息只是其中一半。

But information is only half of it.

另一半是付诸行动。

The other half is acting on it.

这就是Wealthion会员服务的意义所在。

And that's what Wealthion membership is for.

它让你从观看这些对话，转变为在自己的投资组合中实践这些理念。

It's how you go from watching these conversations to putting them to work in your own portfolio.

会员资格为你打开三扇门：获得顾问的指导，帮助你在投资组合中配置真实资产，以及为合格投资者提供进入专业基金的机会。

Membership opens three doors, access to advisors, helping build real assets into your portfolio, and for accredited investors, access to specialized funds.

想了解更多，成为会员的链接就在下方的描述框中。

To learn more, the link to become a member is in the description box below.

知道的人越少越好。

Fewer people to know about it, the better.

好的。

Okay.

但一旦突破这个区间，那就是一个长期看涨的强烈信号，表明贵金属板块即将大幅上涨。

But when you break out of that, that is a long term table pounding signal that the monetary metals complex is about to go ape.

我敢打赌，一旦这个价差突破发生，你就会开始听到市场内外传来我们现在还没讨论的那些故事。

And I'm gonna bet that when that occurs, once that breakout occurs on the spread, that you're gonna start to hear on the sidelines in this market and that market stories we're not talking about now.

债务故事、金融市场相关的故事，更多关注美国国债市场的崩溃。

Debt stories, financial market related stories, more focus on the collapsing U.

美国。

S.

政府债券市场。

Government bond market.

如果我们正处在这个边缘，如果你看到这次重大突破的迹象，你预计的时间框架是什么？

If we're on the verge of this, if you're seeing the signs of this major breakout, what, what kind of timeframe are you looking at?

你觉得现在既然开始了，会不会加速？

Is, is, is it, is it your sense that now that it's starting that it's going to accelerate?

这是第三季度、第四季度那种情况，还是很难确定具体时间？

Is this a set, third quarter, fourth quarter type episode or is it hard to pin down the

我敢打赌，这是基于很多经验，但只是他们正在酝酿突破的结构规模如此巨大。

I'm gonna bet and this is based on a lot of experience, but just the nature of the structures that they're pending their breakouts are so massive.

当你经历类似的情况，然后回归到矿企估值与黄金的真实关系，那关系非常好，但它们的价格却处于那样的水平。

When you go through something like that, and and then return and go to the true reality of miners valuation to gold, which is incredibly good, and yet they're priced at levels like that.

会很快发生的。

You'll do it so quickly.

而且我觉得，几个季度之内，你不仅会看到价差爆炸，矿业股的净价也会疯涨，也就是说整个板块的净价会大幅上升。

And I think, know, a couple quarters, you could see not just the spread explode, but the net price of the miners go ape, meaning the net price of the whole complex go up dramatically.

我不是说不会，可能还会继续涨个几年。

So I'm not saying, yeah, you may continue up for a couple years.

但我认为当这个事件发生，加上我们提到的其他事件，尤其是政府债务危机，我们会从根本上进入一个新的现实。

But I think when this event occurs and the other events that we mentioned, especially government debt crisis, we're going to enter a new reality fundamentally.

这可能会改变很多事情。

And it could change a lot of things.

换句话说，这次黄金不会涨上去又跌回来，它会变成货币。

In other words, this time around gold doesn't go up and come back down, it becomes money.

如果我们把焦点拉近一点，你会关注哪些关键价位？

If we pull the focus in a little closer, what are some of the key levels that you're going to look at?

比如，你的目标是什么，你会说，好的，这正如我所预料的那样在发展。

Like, are some of your targets that you're going say, okay, this is this is transpiring as I expected.

我

I

说实话，我没有什么具体的目标。

frankly don't have any.

我有一个理性的目标，就是白银应该到300到500美元。有几种方法可以得出这个结论，比如看铜、铅、锌等金属的价格。

I have a rational one that says silver ought to be 3 to $500 A couple ways you could arrive at that looking at the copper, lead, zinc, etcetera.

所以，白银会追上那些基本金属，你知道，它们供应并不紧张，而且白银还会追上它的“母金属”。

So, well, it's just going to catch up to those base metals that, you know, they're hardly in short supply and it's going to catch up to its mama metal.

白银会说，嘿，我也在这儿呢，妈妈。

You say, oh, I'm here too, mama.

好，你知道，涨个四五倍。

Okay, you know, get up, know, four or five fold.

追上黄金。

Catch up to gold.

对。

Okay.

对，追上黄金。

Yeah, to gold.

是的。

Yeah.

而且你看看黄金的历史，自从它再次合法化以来，天哪，我真高兴它合法化了。

And if you look at gold's history, since it was legalized again, golly, I'm glad it was legalized.

政府允许我们拥有它了。

The government gave its permission to own it.

黄金已经经历了两次八倍的牛市。

Gold has had two eightfold move bull markets.

75年刚开始交易时是200美元，那是个高点。

'75 had began trading at $200, which was a peak.

那时候它合法化了。

It was legalized then.

跌到了103，差不多100美元吧。

Dropped to a 103, so a $100, let's say.

到2011年，它涨到多少了？

By 2011, it was where?

不对。

No.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

从1976年的低点到1980年，涨了八倍，到了850。然后在2001年和2002年，它触底了，大概在260左右，到2011年涨到了1920，又是八倍。

By 1980, from '76 low to 1980, eightfold move, 850 Then in, two thousand and one and two, it bottomed at about two, I think it was two sixty area and got up to 1,920 by 2011, eightfold move.

但我们只涨了四倍。

But we're only fourfold.

我们从2015年的50以下起步。

We started from below at a 50 in 2015.

所以我们的涨幅相对只有黄金之前两次的一半，而且那两次的条件远没有现在这么艰难。

So we're only half as much gain on a relative basis as gold has done twice before under far less onerous conditions.

对世界来说艰难，但对黄金来说反而是好事。

Onerous for the world, that is, good for it.

那白银会跑赢黄金吗？

So does silver outperform gold?

会的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

我之前提到过矿企股和黄金的价差图表，那个趋势非常明显。

It's I mentioned the spread chart of the miners versus gold, how clear that is.

白银相对于黄金已经突破了十年来的宽幅区间，但目前仍处于非常低的水平。

Silver has already emerged above a ten year wide range in relation to gold, still at very low levels.

再说，1980年白银是黄金的6.5%，2011年是3.1%，而现在大概只有1.5%左右，远低于那些高点。

Again, six and a half percent in 1980, 3.1% in 2011, and we're now, you know, one and a half or something in that order, well below those highs.

所以白银有很大的上涨空间，要回到1980年相对于黄金的水平，白银需要翻倍，甚至接近五倍。

So there's plenty of room to gush to double silver, five fold silver almost, just to get back to where it was in 1980 versus gold.

而且从技术面来看，确实，这个过程已经开始了。

And its technicals argue, yeah, it's already in that process.

我觉得现在的关键就是黄金和白银矿业股。

I think the real key right now is the gold and silver miners.

顺便说一句，我个人更看好白银矿业股，而不是黄金矿业股，虽然两者都会表现不错。

And by the way, I do personally favor silver miners over the gold miners, though they'll both do quite well.

我知道大多数投资者不这么认为，因为他们对矿业股整体持非常负面的看法。

And I know most investors don't think that's possible because most investors have this very sort of negative overall view of the miners.

他们觉得这些股票很垃圾。

They're dogs.

你知道的，总是觉得它们很差劲。

You know, it's always, they're crappy.

但实际上，如果你真的去衡量它们，过去几年它们的表现比黄金好得多。

When you actually measure them, they've been doing a lot better than gold over the last several years.

但没人承认这一点。

Nobody acknowledges it.

算了。

Anyway.

那真是太棒了。

That's, that's amazing.

你会看金银比吗？

Do you do you look at the gold silver ratio?

那是你会用的指标吗，还是……

Is that something that you use or

嗯，我用的是另一种方式。

Well, I use, we do it the other way.

我们不看比率，而是用银除以金，得到一个百分比。

We instead of the ratio, we divide silver into gold and get it as a percent.

但其实就是同一个图表，只是倒过来了。

But it's the same chart upside down.

然后，

And,

我们把它画出来，当我们看到像天花板一样的技术形态，比如金矿股对银矿股、对黄金，那里有个天花板。

and we plot it and when we see technical structures like, you know, a ceiling that's been bumped, like that gold miners versus silver miners versus gold, there's a ceiling.

嗯，也有类似的顶部，但没那么长期，最近这波上涨中它突破了。

Well, had a similar ceiling, less long term, that it emerged above in that recent surge.

即使从一月高点回调以来，这个价差也一直保持在关键水平之上。

Even in the pullback we've had since the January high, that spread is held above certain key levels.

比如，它突破了，然后回调，说，我还在好位置上，现在又开始回升了。

Like, it broke out and then pulled back and said, I'm still holding at good levels and now it's starting to turn up again.

所以，这就是我们关注的东西。

So, that's what we look at.

这些价差关系，我觉得现在非常能说明问题，尤其是当出现突破的时候，因为那时你可以扔掉所有图表，只看价格和动量。

And those spread relationships, I think are very telling right now, especially when we get that breakout because at that point you can throw, I've told our subscribers you could throw all your charts away, price and momentum.

当价差突破时，其他都不重要了，我们会一路涨上去。

It doesn't matter when that spread breaks out, we're gonna go eight.