债券市场正在反抗——下一步会是印钞吗？

债券市场正在全面反抗。

The bond market is in complete revolt.

这些都是完全前所未有的事件。

These are all totally unprecedented events.

我们正在走向收益率曲线控制，这基本上就是轻量版的印钞。

We're moving towards yield curve control, which is essentially money printing light.

这就是你一直等待的机会。

This is the opportunity you've been waiting for.

你好，欢迎来到Wealthion，我是Maggie Lake。

Hello, and welcome to Wealthion and Maggie Lake.

今天和我一起讨论美联储和财政部的最新动态，以及这对黄金意味着什么的，是GBI的首席经济学家Trey Reik。

Joining me to bring us up to date on what is happening with the Fed Treasury and what it all means for gold is Trey Reik, GBI chief economist.

嘿，Trey。

Hey, Trey.

感谢你来做客，帮我们理清这些铺天盖地的头条新闻。

Thanks for coming on and helping us make sense of all of these headlines that have been coming at us fast and furious.

我们有很多要关注的事情。

We have a lot to, a lot to focus on.

而且，现在有很多相互矛盾的因素，我们在频道上的对话中也经常提到这些。但我们觉得，还是请Trey来聊聊吧，因为我们自己内部也经常讨论这些编辑方面的话题。

And listen, there are a lot of crosscurrents, and they've been coming up in conversations that we've been having on the channel, but we're like, let's get with Trey because we have a lot of these conversations between ourselves, these editorial conversations.

我觉得先给大家梳理一下背景会很有帮助。

And just sort of set the table for everybody, I think is helpful.

所以我想从我们接下来要关注的一些事件开始。

So I want to start with some of the sort of events that we're going to be watching.

我们先从美联储说起。

Let's start with the Federal Reserve.

央行政策委员会这周要开会。

The Central Bank Policy Committee meets this week.

大家的共识似乎是他们会加息。

The consensus seems to be that they are going to raise rates.

你觉得这会发生吗？

Is that what you think is likely to happen?

你听到的消息是怎么说的？

What is the chatter you're hearing?

好的，这个问题非常重要。

Okay, so that's a really important question.

如果你上周五问我，我的答案会不一样。

If you had asked me last Friday, I would have had a different answer.

而且你知道，从我们之前的讨论来看，简单来说，有三个基本因素使得加息不太可能或不是最佳选择。

And you know from our past discussions that just very briefly, there are three sort of underlying underpinnings, make a rate hike unlikely or probably not the best decision.

一是未偿债务负担，还有负的国民净储蓄率等等。

One or outstanding debt loads is the negative net national savings rate, etc.

以及美国的负储蓄率。

And the negative US savings rate.

但过去三四天，也就是上周最后五天，加息125个基点的概率已经上升到90%。

But what's happened in the past three or four days, five days of last week, probabilities are now up to 90% for a 125 basis point rate hike.

而且我觉得沃什现在的情况是，如果不跟进市场预期，可能会带来负面影响。

And I think Warsh is in a position where not to follow through with those market expectations would probably be a negative.

所以如果你上周问我，我会说五五开。

So if you'd asked me last week, I would have said fiftyfifty.

但周末看了看新闻，再看看目前的市场概率和发生的一切。

But just looking and reading over the weekend and seeing the current probabilities in everything that's happened.

我觉得他基本上是被迫要加息了。

I think he's pretty much forced into a rate hike.

对，通胀数据出来后，信誉就悬了。

Yeah, credibility on the line after the inflation readings.

我们可能会看到市场在推着他往那个方向走。

We could see the kind of market pushing him that way.

他说过他会听市场的。

He said he was going to listen to the market.

现在，我觉得大家在看这个，然后想，好吧，美联储会说他们得关注物价稳定。

Now, I think that folks are looking at that and okay, we have the Fed's going to say they've got to watch out for price stability.

他们必须对通胀数据做出反应。

They've got to react to the inflation data.

数据比他们预期的要热一些。

It's coming in a little hotter than they would like.

但还有一位财政部长宣布回购债券，因为他想压低利率。

But then you have a Treasury secretary who announced bond buybacks because he's trying to push interest rates lower.

他们现在是不是在互相较劲？

Are they working at odds with each other now?

百分之百。

A 100%.

不过我们回到你刚才说的信誉问题。

But let's go back to your credibility comment.

我非常支持沃什的转变，因为你知道，过去十年我一直对美联储的分析框架和通胀预期持批评态度。

I am a big fan of power to Warsh change over because as you know, I've been sort of a Fed detractor for the past decade and their analytical framework and inflation expectations.

我觉得这些都是非常积极的。

I think that's all very positive.

这也是我原本认为不会加息的原因之一，因为尽管油价很高，沃什喜欢回顾2008年油价147美元的例子，当时美联储和欧洲央行反应过度，美联储推高了长期利率，而欧洲央行实际上加息了，尽管欧盟处于衰退，美国金融体系也开始瓦解。

That's one of the reasons that I thought we wouldn't have a rate hike because even though oil prices are very high, Warsh likes to look back on the 147 oil price in 2008 as an example where the Fed and the ECB overreacted, the Fed talked up the long end of the curve and the ECB actually raised rates even though the EU was in recession and The US financial system was starting to disintegrate.

所以我真的再次相信，沃什会是决定因素，不会关注那个短期问题。

So I really believed again, that Warsh would be the deciding factor in not focusing on that short term.

但我确实认为，你知道，整个油价上涨，一切都到了他可能需要，你知道，加息一次来平息一切、让所有人都冷静下来的地步。

But I do believe that, you know, just the whole oil price rise, everything has just gotten to the point where he needs to maybe do, you know, one rate hike to calm everything, calm everyone and everything down.

哦，我想起来你提到信誉时我在说什么了。

Oh, I remember what I was saying when you said credibility.

那就是我跑题的原因。

That's what got me on this tangent.

我觉得沃什的信誉非常高。

I think Warsh's credibility is very high.

市场正在适应他对信誉的定义。

The markets getting used to his definition of credibility.

我就是在那里跑偏的。

That's where I got off track.

所以我认为他的信誉正在提升美联储的声望。

And so I think his credibility is increasing the Fed's pedigree.

但是市场对他不打算提供那么多前瞻性指引的想法反应非常负面。

But markets reacted very negatively to his concept that he wasn't going to provide as much forward guidance.

现在说到贝森特，他是我以前在索罗斯那里管钱时的老上司，我对他挺了解的。他确实处于那种“我比谁都懂”的状态，他要掌控市场，他知道油价应该在哪里，他也知道日元应该在哪里。

Now with respect to Bessent, who was my old boss when I managed money for Soros, and I know him pretty well, he's definitely in this mode of he knows better, he's going to control markets, he knows where oil should be, He knows where the yen should be.

这些我们就不重复了。

And we won't repeat all this.

但我觉得他上周或者上上周说过，关于日元市场，他说“我是庄家，你在跟我对赌。”

But I think he said last week or the week before, with respect to yen markets, I'm the house, you're betting against me.

我有不对称的优势，对我来说，所有这些事情都是这样。

I have asymmetric and for me, all this type of stuff.

但说实话，我觉得这就是利率涨得这么快的原因之一，因为作为美国财政部长，在七国集团货币上说出这样的话，确实挺吓人的。

But to be honest with you, I think that's one of the reasons that interest rates are rising as rapidly as they have been, because that's a pretty scary thing for a US Treasury Secretary to say on the House on a G7 currency.

总之，这就是斯科特的性格。

Anyway, so that's just Scott's personality.

这些全都暴露出来了。

It's all coming out.

但毫无疑问，斯科特正试图压低利率，而美联储可能不得不加息，这正好与他的意图相冲突。

But there's no question that Scott is trying to bring interest rates down and the Fed may have to raise rates right in conflict with that.

我们频道做的每一件事都有一个目标，就是让你成为更敏锐、更明智的投资者，一个能在主流市场察觉之前就理解影响你财富的宏观力量的人。

Everything we do on this channel has one goal, to make you a sharper, better informed investor, someone who understands the macro forces shaping your money before the mainstream catches on.

但信息只是其中一半。

But information is only half of it.

另一半是付诸行动。

The other half is acting on it.

这正是 Wealthion 会员服务的意义所在。

And that's what Wealthion membership is for.

它让你从观看这些对话，转变为在自己的投资组合中实践这些理念。

It's how you go from watching these conversations to putting them to work in your own portfolio.

会员服务为你打开三扇门：获得顾问的指导，帮助你把实物资产纳入投资组合，以及为合格投资者提供接触专业基金的机会。

Membership opens three doors: access to advisors, helping build real assets into your portfolio, and for accredited investors, access to specialized funds.

想了解更多，下方描述框里有成为会员的链接。

To learn more, the link to become a member is in the description box below.

我的意思是，你知道，美联储的联邦基金利率会瞄准曲线的短端。

I mean, and, you know, the Fed's gonna the Fed funds rate is gonna be targeting the shorter end of the curve.

对吧？

Right?

而且我觉得，你可能会说斯科特是想降低消费者和房贷利率。

And I I suppose you could argue that Scott's trying to bring rates down where they hit the consumer and those mortgage rates.

也许在理想情况下，如果美联储加息，他们会瞄准短端。

Maybe if the Fed raises in an ideal world, they would be they would be targeting the shorter end.

但我觉得所有这些，如果我在听你说的话，可能都指向一个事实，那就是经济中存在一些紧张，因为短期压力在积聚，尤其是现在油价上涨了。

But I think all of this probably and if I'm listening to what you're saying, probably points to the fact that we've got some tension in the in the economy because you've got these short term pressures that are building, especially around oil now that we've seen that rising.

就像几个月前，这并不在计划之中。

Like that wasn't really in this in the playbook of a couple months ago.

我们都以为战争会结束，希望油价会开始下跌。

We were all thinking we were going through the war and that hopefully they would start to come down.

现在油价却飙升了。

Now you've got them spiking.

听起来你担心经济有一些潜在的疲软，所以觉得他们不应该加息。

It sounds like you're concerned about some underlying weakness in the economy in terms of why they shouldn't raise rates.

是的，可能我之前说得不够具体。

Yeah, so I may have not been specific enough.

其实我觉得经济还是挺稳健的。

So I think the economy is actually pretty solid.

你用的那个词最关键，就是“紧张”。

The word that you use that is most important is tension.

我在这一行干了四十年，从来没见过这么多相互矛盾的压力和地缘政治担忧，等等。

I think in my four decades in the business, I've never witnessed so many countervailing pressures and geopolitical concerns, etcetera.

所以“紧张”是关键。

So tension is the key.

关于利率，我不是专家，就像我们一开始说的，十年期国债收益率刚刚突破5%，这是2023年以来的最高点，但实际上，最高点也是2007年以来的最低点。

With respect to interest rates, on which I'm not an expert, as we started, the ten year just ticked above 5%, which is the highest since 2023, but actually the high tick, the lowest since 2007.

所以债券市场完全在反抗。

So the bond market is in complete revolt.

我猜这主要跟赤字有关，而且现在每年的利息支出已经——你看，我们讨论赤字问题已经二十年了，对吧？

I assume that it has to do mostly with the deficit and the fact that annual interest charges are now Look, we've been talking about the deficit problem for two decades, right?

我们，你，我，所有参与黄金交易的人，这确实有影响，黄金在那段时间表现相当不错。

We, you, I, everyone who's involved in the gold trade, and it has mattered, gold's done fairly well over that time.

但我们还没有真正到达那个转折点，就是美元偿付能力受到质疑的时候。

But we haven't had that real inflection point where the dollar's sort of solvency comes into question.

举个完美的例子，今年前三个季度，福利支出、利息和退伍军人事务，这部分联邦预算赤字占到了总收入的105%，而且这还没算其他所有开支。

And as a perfect example, in the first three quarters of this year, entitlements, interest, and veteran affairs, that portion of the federal budget deficit was 105% of total receipts, and that's without everything else.

而且这部分还在以7.5%的速度增长，而收入增长只有4%。

And it's growing 7.5% and receipts are growing 4%.

所以你可能会问，你想说什么？

So you might say, what's your point?

我只是想说，我们正在接近这个转折点，在研究了这么久之后，我觉得人们真的开始质疑联邦预算和美元的偿付能力了。

I'm just saying we're hitting this inflection point where after studying this stuff for so long, I think people are really starting to question the solvency of the federal budget and the dollar.

这确实很严重。

Which is so serious.

我觉得你说得对，Trey。

And I think that's what I think you're right, Trey.

我觉得这就是为什么人们开始看到这种担忧，一种更大的、根本性的担忧开始真正产生影响，并与短期的市场波动或影响因素形成紧张关系。

And I think that's why people you start to see this concern, sort of larger fundamental concern really starting to weigh in and create that tension with maybe the shorter term, you know, moves that are or factors that are hitting the market.

当贝森特出来回购债券并进行干预时，引起了很大的骚动，特鲁克和米勒还写了篇专栏文章评论这件事。

When Bessent came out and started buying back bonds and intervening, there was a lot of uproar and truck and miller wrote an op ed about it.

很多人开始讨论像收益率曲线控制这样的东西。

A lot of people started talking about things like yield curve control.

为什么人们会对贝森特似乎采取的这些非常规举措如此担心，甚至担心美联储是否有合适的工具来应对这个问题？

Why are people so worried about the sort of extraordinary moves that Bessent seems to be making and and even you know whether the Fed has the right tools to address this.

这种潜在的担忧到底是什么？

What is kind of this underlying concern?

看起来这跟偿付能力问题有关，但你听到了什么？我们需要理解哪些关键术语？

It seems like it is related to this solvency issue, but what are you hearing and what are the kind of terms that we need to understand here?

好的。

Okay.

你教过我怎么不打断别人，所以我刚才没插话。

So you've taught me to learn how to not interrupt, so I didn't.

但你提到了一个非常重要的问题，就是短期和长期的区别。

But you mentioned a very important thing, which is short term versus long term.

如果今天我能传达一个信息给那些对贵金属或相关行业感兴趣的人，那就是黄金总是受短期和长期基本面影响的。

And if there's any message I could convey today for people who are interested in precious metals or the sector or anything that's related, gold is always subject to short term and long term fundamentals.

我一直认为，长期基本面是我们每天来上班的原因，而短期基本面是我们必须应对的。

I always believe that the long term fundamentals are why we come in to work every day, and the short term fundamentals are what we have to deal with.

说实话，十年期收益率突破5%这个短期基本面，我想不出比这更负面的了。

The short term fundamentals of the ten year yield going over five, I don't think I could come up with a more negative, I have to be honest, short term fundamental.

还有高油价，也许美联储会加息。

And we have the high oil price, have, okay, maybe the Fed's going to raise.

这些都是非常重要的短期基本面。

These are all incredibly important short term fundamentals.

我不否认它们的重要性，它们确实会主导短期表现。

And I do not argue their relevance, and they will control the short term performance.

我鼓励大家去思考、去琢磨的是，所有这些短期发展只会让长期基本面变得更加强劲。

What I encourage people to think about or philosophize about or try to think is the long term fundamentals are only increasing by all of these short term developments.

所以我们实际上已经到了财政部无法正常为其债务融资的地步。

So we're actually getting to the point where the Treasury cannot properly finance its debt.

我们实际上已经到了财政部长不得不靠各种花招来维持局面的地步，他甚至说过，他并不是在试图降低利率，而只是在试图减缓利率上升的速度。

We're actually getting to the point where the Treasury Secretary has to resort to gimmicks to keep trying, and he's even said he's not even trying to reduce rates, he's just trying to reduce the rate of ascent.

所以这些真的是很大的转折点。

So these are really big inflection points.

所以讽刺的是，尽管在我看来，当十年期收益率超过5%时，黄金可能会面临一些艰难时期，而且斯科特接下来还会遇到三四件事。

So the irony is that even though, in my opinion, gold's likely to face some rough waters as we go above 5% on the ten year, and Scott comes to his next three or four things.

他在过去三周里已经做了七件事。

He's done seven things in the last three weeks.

他做了日本干预，金额是950亿美元。

So he did the Japanese intervention, which was 95,000,000,000.

我认为那是有史以来最大的一次。

I think it was the biggest ever.

他跟美联储谈过，想把货币互换额度提高到650亿以上。

He's talked to the Fed about increasing swap line limits above the 65,000,000,000.

他还跟阿联酋谈过建立货币互换额度的事，尽管这向来只限于五大央行。

He's talked to The UAE about establishing a credit swap line, even though that's always been limited to the top five central banks.

他说要把定期购买国债从两次增加到四次，但他实际做了六次。

He said he would increase the periodic purchase of treasuries from two to four, but he did six.

他说会用财政部在美联储的9500亿账户来提供资金。

He said he would fund it with the Treasury's $950,000,000,000 account at the Fed.

这些都是完全史无前例的事情。

These are all totally unprecedented events.

然后就像我们之前讨论的，他居然在电视直播上说他自己就是市场。

And then as we were discussing earlier, he actually said on live TV that he was the house.

所以总之，所有这些事情，你知道的，都在明确向市场发出信号：我们正在走向收益率曲线控制。

So anyway, all of this stuff you know, is clearly signaling to markets that we're moving towards yield curve control.

现在，曲线控制，大家都知道，就是美联储印钱去买长期债券，那就是量化宽松，对吧？

Now, curve control, as we all know, is the Fed issues money to buy long term bonds, and that's QE, right?

所以我们还没到那一步，但所有这些都在把我们推向收益率曲线控制的路径，这基本上就是轻量版的印钞。

So we're not there yet, but all of these things are moving us down the pathway of yield curve control flight, which is essentially money printing light.

所以信号都在这里了，实际上比我职业生涯中见过的任何时候都多。

So the signals are all here, actually more than I've ever seen in my career.

但我们还没到真正印钞的那一步。

But we haven't gotten to the exact point where we're printing money.

现在还不是印钞，但我们应该会到那一步，坦白说，这正是黄金目前能稳住的原因，因为考虑到十年期收益率的上升和其他一些因素，我其实很惊讶黄金能这么坚挺。

It's not money printing yet, but we should be there, which is quite frankly what's holding gold where it is, because given the increase in ten year yields and some of these other items, I'm actually surprised that gold's been this resilient.

但是关于

But on

对，我正想说，考虑到所有对它不利的因素，而且顺序很重要，对吧？

the Yeah, was long gonna say given everything that's stacked up against it and sequence matters, right?

所以我们总是跟人说，要理解你的投资视角。

So we always say to people, understand your investment perspective.

如果你是做短线交易的，那是另一种说法。

And if you're short term trading, that's one conversation.

但是很多人都在看他们的长期计划，试图制定一个长期计划，想办法确保自己能够为未来做好准备，保护自己的财富，确保自己准备好迎接即将到来的动荡。

But a lot of people are looking at their longer term plan, trying to come up with a longer term plan and figure out how to make sure that they are kind of future proofing, how to protect their wealth, how to make sure they're ready for turbulence coming.

所以在那个长期视角下，你说的重点确实需要放在这种根本性的偿付能力问题上，而不是一些短期影响价格的因素。

So in that longer term view, that's where you're saying the focus really needs to be on this sort of fundamental solvency issue as opposed to some of the shorter term dynamics that are that are hitting price.

你又一次点到了最核心的动态，也就是现在黄金价格正在发生的事情。

You've just once again hit the ultimate dynamic, which is what's happening right now with the gold price.

大家还在回头看一月份，我们交易到了5540或者不管那个高点是多少，然后回落到51。

Everybody's still looking back at January, we traded at 55, 40 or whatever the peak was, then we got back to 51.

所以所有做黄金交易的人，不管你是持有黄金、黄金股票还是其他什么，大家都还在回头看一月份，我们得摆脱那种心态。

So everyone on the gold trade, whether you own gold, gold stocks, everything, everyone's still kind of looking over their shoulder at January, we got to get rid of that.

我们必须向前看。

We have to look forward.

用那句名言来说，我讨厌总是引用Rick Rule，但用那位著名的Rick Rule的话说，现在发生的一切都是一个巨大的机会，让我们今天能以低于4300的价格买入黄金，能以它们各自的价格买入黄金矿商股，这些价格比一月份低，我们必须认识到这是一个机会，因为我认为，从长期来看，这是非常基础的分析。

In the words of, I hate to always reference Rick rule, but in the words of the infamous Rick rule, everything that's happening right now is an enormous opportunity to be able to buy gold today at under 4,300, to be able to buy gold miners at their individual levels right now down from January, we have to recognize this as an opportunity, because of the, I think, very fundamental analysis of the long term.

这就是黄金的运作方式。

And this is the way gold works.

黄金的问题在于，当它上涨时，每个人都觉得自己错过了。

And the problem with gold is when it's going up, everybody thinks they missed it.

而当它下跌时，每个人都会说，看吧，我早就告诉过你。

And when it's going down, everybody says, I see, I told you so.

当它不动时，又没有人着急。

When it's not moving, there's no urgency.

所以，在所有资产中，从来都没有一个完美的入场时机。

So it's of all assets in the world, there's never a perfect time to step in.

我最后想说的是，当黄金像一月份那样大幅飙升，然后回落时，

My last sort of comment is when gold has had a big spike like it did in January, and then it backs off.

这实际上是最难让投资者建立信心的时期，因为它曾经在这里，现在却跌到了这里。

This is actually the period of time where it's hardest for investors to develop confidence because it was here, and now it's down here.

而每个人都处于两者之间。

And everybody's in between.

我想说的是，这正是你一直在等待的机会。

And we have to, my message would be that this is the opportunity you've been waiting for.

我们经历了那波上涨，现在也回调了，基本面都没变。

We had the spike, we've corrected, all of these fundamentals are intact.

油价方面，你看，今天布伦特和WTI都涨到了110和104，但这不重要。

We have the oil price, you know, look, oil hit, I think it's 110 and 104 on Brent and WTI today, but that's not relevant.

这对黄金交易真的没什么影响。

It's really not relevant to the gold trade.

它不会长期影响美联储的政策。

It isn't going to influence the Fed long term.

我可以展开讲，但那就太细了。

And I could go into details, but that's too much minutiae.

但对于黄金股来说，油价和柴油的重要性被严重高估了。

But for gold equities, the importance of oil prices and diesel is way overstated.

我记得Agnico Eagle第一季度的情况，柴油每涨10%，他们的总现金成本就增加6美元。

I think the answer of instance of Agnico Eagle in their first quarter, every 10% increase in diesel was $6 to their total cash costs.

假设柴油涨了30%，那就是18美元，但他们第一季度的现金成本，我看看第二季度的数据，是11.16美元，所以柴油涨30%对他们的现金成本影响只有1.6%，这还不包括全维持成本，只是现金成本。

So let's say it's up 30%, that's $18 but their first quarter, let me get the second quarter numbers $11.16 dollars of cash costs, so the 30% increase in diesel is, you know, 1.6% in their cash costs, that's not all in sustaining, but just cash costs.

所以我的意思是，黄金被过度惩罚了，矿商因为油价上涨被惩罚得更厉害，这其实是个很好的机会。

So my point is, gold's been unduly punished, Miners have been triply unduly punished because of this rising oil price, and this is a great opportunity.

所以从现在到年底，我觉得真正的信息是，这是积累贵金属的时候，为了未来两年会发生的事情做准备。

So between now and the end of the year, I think the real message is this is the time to accumulate precious metals for what's going to happen over the next two years.

关于能源成本这一点很有意思，因为确实经常被提到。

That's so interesting about the energy input costs because that does come up.

但你说得完全对，Trey。

But you're exactly right, Trey.

我们经常听到这个说法。

We hear this all the time.

时机把握对很多人来说很难，因为要么回头看，要么向前看，要么卡在中间，总觉得自己时机不对。

The timing part of this is so hard for people because of what They're you either looking back, looking forward or kind of stuck and just thinking that they've got the timing wrong.

但我听你说要稳步积累，这确实让事情变得不那么神秘了。

But I just hear you say accumulate steadily and you sort of take some of that mystery out of it.

有没有什么价格下跌会让你犹豫，或者让你对动态和目标更担心一点？

Any downside price that would cause you give you pause or cause you to become a little bit more concerned about the dynamics and goals?

比如说，考虑到黄金目前面临一些疲软，我们在支撑位方面应该关注什么？

Like, what are we looking at in terms of support, knowing that gold is facing some weakness?

大家是不是都在关注某个数字，我们需要留意一下？

A Is number everyone's gathering around that we need to watch?

那我直说了，你问的是短期内的担忧吗？

So I'm going to be brutally honest and ask, are you asking me over the short term, My worries.

对，我们就在那个位置附近。

Yeah, we're right there.

所以4270是一个关键点位，不过我一直说，我只在技术面支持我的观点时才提它，而现在技术面并不支持。

So 4,270 is the and I'm not I always say I only mentioned technicals when they support my case, and they don't right now.

但黄金确实是个技术性很强的品种。

But gold is a very technical beast.

这个话题我能聊半小时，因为我觉得用技术分析来交易黄金并不靠谱，毕竟变量太多了，还有各种乱七八糟的因素。

Could go on about this for half an hour because I don't think technicals are the way to trade gold because there's so many variables and blah, blah, blah, blah.

但问题是，很多人认为黄金就是技术性很强的品种，而且它属于大宗商品。

But the problem is there are a lot of people who think it's the technical beast and it's a commodity.

我现在就说，大家都应该关注，我们现在在4270，这是五十天移动平均线。

And I'm just going to say right now, everybody should be watching, we're at 4,270, which is the fifty day moving average.

而且六月份的时候，我们跌破了二百天移动平均线，但现在这些移动平均线全都反转了。

And back in June, we went below the two hundred day moving average, but now all these moving averages 100 have reversed.

我实话实说，如果4070这个位置守不住，那接下来几个月会很难熬。

And I'm just going to be honest and say at 4,070, which is where we are, doesn't hold, we're in for a rough couple of months.

但再说一次，我觉得这就是机会。

But once again, I think that's the opportunity.

你几乎应该盼着它跌，因为那样大家就有机会在4100或者4000左右买入黄金，4000大概差不多。

You should almost be rooting for it, because it will give everyone the opportunity to buy gold at 4,100 or 4,000 or whatever, 4,000 is probably.

但就目前而言，如果有人想在未来一两周交易黄金，我建议还是看看咖啡或者其他品种吧，因为我们现在处境很艰难。

But we're right in terms of if anybody's trying to trade gold in the next week or two, look I at coffee or something else because we're on a tough spot.

这建议真不错。

That's great advice.

这对那些今年早些时候觉得自己错过了、一直在场外观望的人来说，是个好消息。

It's going be welcome news to people who felt like they missed it earlier this year and have been on the sidelines waiting.

对于持有者来说，要有耐心，眼光放长远。

For those holding, be patient and keep your eye on the future.

我们得根据眼前的市场来交易，而不是我们想要的市场。

We got to trade the market that's in front of us, not the market we want.

不过Trey，聊得真不错。

But Trey, fantastic conversation.

我们确实需要这次更新。

We really needed this little update.

非常感谢你抽出时间，分享你的专业知识。

So appreciate you taking the time and sharing all of your expertise with us.

多谢了。

Thanks so much.

大家都得有点骨气，希望这种机会还能再持续一两个月，因为就像我们说的，现在进场很难，但正是时候。

Everybody has to get a little bit of spine here and hope that we continue to have these opportunities for another month or two, because as we've discussed, it's very difficult to step in, but this is the time to do so.

这就是你找到机会的方式。

That's how you got to find the opportunity.

好的，非常感谢，特雷。

All right, thanks so much, Trey.

我们很快再聊。

We'll do it again soon.

好的。

Sure.