2025：比特币年度回顾 | 持有与奥德尔

时间线是三年吗？

Is the timeline three years?

是五年吗？

Is it five?

是十年吗？

Is it ten?

是二十年吗？

Is it twenty?

是胡说八道吗？

Is it bullshit?

量子计算的纠错技术不真实吗？

Is the error correction on quantum not real?

短程攻击和长程攻击有什么区别？

What's the difference between a short range and long range attack?

这些事情很容易让人困惑。

Like these things get confusing.

这些对我来说很令人困惑，我接触比特币已经很久了。

They're confusing for me and I've been in Bitcoin for a long time.

所以我认为，尼克·卡特最近出来谈了量子计算，这已经到处都是了。

So I think, you know, Nick Carter recently came out and talked about quantum And that's been all over.

至少现在我们不再谈论垃圾信息了。

Like, you know, at least now we're not talking about spam anymore.

所以我们有了新的话题可以讨论。

So we got something new to talk about.

这挺好的。

So that's been nice.

至少我们有这个可以聊。

Got that going for us.

但我确实认为他是对的。

But I do think that he's right.

确实有资本对量子计算感到害怕。

That there is capital that's scared of Quantum.

我认为尼克为了吸引关注而表现得过于危言耸听了。

I think Nick is being incredibly alarmist for engagement.

但作为与他竞争的基金的管理者，他在这一点上是正确的。

But as someone who runs a fund that competes with his, he is correct in that.

我们确实从大型资金配置方那里听到了类似的说法。

I I we have heard this from large allocators.

大型资金配置方确实在考虑这个问题，但并没有真正的答案，因为我认为真正的答案是：这目前并不是一个实际的担忧。

Like, large allocators are thinking about it, and there's not a real answer because I think the real answer is it's not a real concern right now.

一切都会好起来的。

And every it'll be fine.

但这种说法并不能让人满意。

But that's not satisfying.

他们真正想看到的是，为那些希望增强抗量子能力的人提供一些切实可行的技术方案。

What they what do they wanna see is they wanna see some tangible technical option for people that want more quantum resistance.

我的意思是，现在如果你持有比特币，并且遵循最佳实践——自己保管比特币、不重复使用地址——那么你目前对这种纯粹理论上的量子突破有着非常好的保护。

I mean, right now, if you hold Bitcoin, and you're doing it under best practices, you're holding self custody Bitcoin, you're not reusing addresses, you're you're very well protected from some kind of quantum breakthrough that is purely theoretical right now.

但这对他们来说不是一个简单的答案。

But that's not an easy answer for them.

我认为这确实给市场带来了一些压力，加剧了本已存在的不确定性。

I do think it's it's it probably it's weighing down the market a little bit and is adding a little bit more uncertainty where we already had Mhmm.

你知道，不确定性。

You know, uncertainty.

但我认为黄金的关键在于，这并不是由散户推动的上涨。

And I think the key here though with gold is gold is not I don't think it's a retail driven rally.

我认为黄金是来自机构和主权基金的买入。

I think gold is institutional sovereigns.

这是非常非常大的资产配置者。

This is very, very large allocators.

对他们来说，配置黄金实际上更容易。

And for them, it's actually easier for them to allocate to gold.

首先，职业风险要低得多。

First of all, there's way less career risk.

大型配置者已经有多种途径可以大规模配置黄金。

There's already a bunch of different avenues for large allocators to move into gold in size.

这个故事非常清晰。

The story is very clean.

你知道，这是一种拥有数千年历史的资产，历史上一直被视为避险资产。

You know, it's it's multi thousand year asset that is has historically been a safe haven.

而比特币是新的，很难理解。

And Bitcoin is, you know, is is new, and it's it's it's hard to understand.

不过，有趣的是，我顺便说一句，这可能是我一生中第一次感受到黄金的FOMO（错失恐惧症）。

The the interesting thing, though, by the way, and I'll just hand up, probably first time in my life that I've ever felt any kind of gold FOMO.

你知道，正如我们所说的一切都是真的，但黄金和白银真的在暴涨。

And, you know, I was it's just create it's like it's like everything we said is true, but but gold and silver are fucking ripping.

我感觉自己被边缘化了。

And we I feel sidelined.

我在某种程度上感到被边缘化了。

I feel sidelined to a degree.

对于小规模投资者来说，没有简便的方式可以配置黄金。

There's no easy way for for smaller people to allocate to gold.

说实话，我甚至都没法，我曾在《Rabbit小结》里开玩笑提到过这事。

Like, I don't I don't even I was I joked about this on Rabbit Little Recap.

就好像，我需要一个BTC Sessions的视频，教我如何验证实物黄金。

It's like, well, I need, a BTC sessions video on how to verify physical gold.

我只是假设，如果我出去买任何合理数量的实物黄金，我很可能买到一堆中国假货。

Like, I just assume that if I go out and try and buy physical gold in any reasonable size, then it's going I'm I'm probably gonna get a bunch of Chinese fakes.

对我来说，比特币在这些中等规模的投资区间里要容易配置得多。

And and to me, Bitcoin is is way easier to allocate in those, like, middle ranges.

对吧？

Right?

比如50万美元到200万美元这个区间。

Like the like the 500,000 to $2,000,000 ranges.

你可以出去买比特币，自己保管，用Strike平台，三十分钟内就能完成完全验证。

You can go out and get self custody Bitcoin on strike and, you know, have it in fully verified, you know, in in thirty minutes.

顺便说一下，廉价又简单的黄金检测方法是用冲击钻直接钻进去。

By the way, the cheap easy way to assay gold is you take an impact drill and you you just drill into it.

但那不会降低它的价值吗？

And But doesn't that hurt the value in there?

我的意思是，你确实会破坏一部分黄金。

Mean, you're destroying some portion of the gold.

总之，为了明确一下，我决定完全不投资黄金。

Anyway, I decided to just just for to be clear here, I've decided that I'm not gonna allocate to gold at all.

相反，我的比特币对冲方式是大量购买弹药，这要容易验证得多。

And instead, my Bitcoin hedge is just large quantities of ammunition, which is much easier to verify.

威士忌、处方药、弹药。

Whiskey, prescription pills, ammunition.

绝对没错。

Absolutely.

我知道你现在脖子上戴着一些黄金，奥德尔，但我们应该谈谈

I know you've got some gold around your neck right now, Odell, but we should talk about

做成了金饰。

the made x jewelry.

我们应该谈谈量子计算的事。

We should talk about the quantum thing.

因为，说实话，我可能让你对这个话题听腻了，马特，但从我的角度看，它在我有生之年很可能会成真。

Because, like, I may be I I know you kinda get sick of the conversation, Matt, but, like, it from my perspective, it probably will be true in my lifetime.

我还没有能力给出一个具体的时间框架，但我估计它会在我的有生之年发生。

I'm I'm not anywhere near competent enough to put a kind of time frame on it, but I would imagine it happens in my lifetime.

所以我们确实需要以一种合理的方式开始讨论这个问题，因为你说如果你自己保管，不重复使用地址，就相当安全，但这并不是主要威胁。

And so I think we do need to start having the conversation in a reasonable way because, like, you saying that if you hold it in self custody, you're not reusing addresses, like, you're pretty safe, But that's not really the big threat.

主要威胁是，那些旧的比特币会怎么样？

The big threat is, like, what happens to all the old coins?

这会对比特币的价格产生什么影响？

What does that do to, like, the price of Bitcoin?

所以，是的。

So so yeah.

是的，没错。

There's yeah.

正确。

Correct.

有两件事。

There's two things.

所以，如果你担心量子计算会窃取你的比特币，那你不用担心。

So if you're if you're concerned about quantum is someone stealing your own Bitcoin, you're gonna be fine.

我们世界上一些最聪明的头脑正在研发更先进的量子安全方案，即比特币的签名方案，这些方案是可选的，人们可以根据需要切换使用。

We have some of the smartest minds in the world working on more advanced quantum protected schemes, signature schemes for Bitcoin that will be opt in that people can move to if they want to.

在短期到中期，也就是五到二十年内，当前的SegWit哈希地址可能仍然是安全的，因为你只有在花费比特币时才会面临攻击风险。

In the short to medium term, and that's, like, five to twenty years, the current hashed addresses on SegWit are probably fine, you know, because you're only subject to an attack at the point of spend.

所以，你只是在想象有人拥有一个理论上近乎魔法的计算机，能在十分钟到一小时内攻击你，这根本不可能发生。

And so, like, you're, like, imagining someone with a theoretical, like, magic computer, basically, that is able to, like, attack you within 10 to in a ten minutes to an hour, which is just not gonna happen.

那么，人们真正担心的是什么呢？

So then what's the real concern that people have?

人们真正担心的是旧币和丢失的币，这两者被混在一起了。

The real concern people have, and these two things are mixed together, is old coins and lost coins.

对此最简单的网络迷因式说法就是中本聪的比特币。

And the easy meme way to talk about this is Satoshi's Bitcoin.

中本聪拥有一百万枚比特币，正静静地躺在那里，等着量子攻击者来拿。

Satoshi's got a million Bitcoin that's just sitting out there for a quantum attacker.

这就是你选择比特币时所要承担的风险。

I like, this is this is what you sign up for with Bitcoin.

这也是你选择黄金时所要承担的风险。

This is also what you sign up for with gold.

如果有人偷了别人的黄金，这并不会否定黄金的价值主张。

Like if someone steals someone's gold, it doesn't invalidate the gold's value prop.

如果有人偷了别人的比特币，这也不会否定比特币的价值主张。

If someone steals someone's Bitcoin, it doesn't invalidate Bitcoin's value prop.

今年早些时候，人们还在为战略比特币储备欢呼，而这个储备本质上就是建立在被盗比特币之上的。

We earlier in this year, people were cheering on the strategic Bitcoin reserve, which is literally designed to be built on stolen Bitcoin.

他们为此欢呼。

And they cheer that on.

但如果出于某种原因，有人取得了重大突破，成功制造出真正管用的量子计算机，并且获得了某些比特币——顺便说一句，他们如果大规模抛售，反而会摧毁自己创造的价值。

But if for some reason, someone has a massive breakthrough and is able to create a quantum computer that actually fucking works, And they get some Bitcoin, which by the way, they can't dump in size without destroying the value that they created.

人们会彻底疯掉，开始鼓吹我们从未在比特币历史上实施过的资产没收。

People lose their fucking mind and and start advocating for seizures that we've never done in Bitcoin's history.

比特币已经十七年多没有发生过任何一次没收，也从未在协议层面阻止过任何一笔交易。

Bitcoin has gone seventeen plus years without a single seizure and without a single transaction blocked at the protocol level.

是的，确实发生过一些没收事件，比如有人窃取了别人的私钥，或者政府介入逮捕你，用枪指着你的头逼你交出私钥。

Like, yes, there's been seizures where people take people's private keys or governments come in and arrest you and put a gun to your head and force you to give them the private keys.

这是不可避免的。

That's unavoidable.

这属于物理世界的问题。

That's in the physical realm.

但作为一个数字协议、一个原生于互联网的协议，我们从未有过任何没收，也从未封锁过任何交易，这简直令人惊叹。

But as a digital protocol, as an internet native protocol, we've never had a seizure and we've never had any transaction block, which is absolutely phenomenal.

人们并不理解这一事实。

People do not appreciate that fact.

因此，为了防止别人偷走比特币而提前试图窃取比特币，在我看来是疯狂的。

And so to throw that out and basically preemptively try and steal Bitcoin because you're afraid someone else might steal it is insane to me.

这是一种奇怪的执念。

And it's it's a weird obsession that people have.

我认为，从叙事角度来看，最清晰的做法是，如果大型持有者担心大量比特币进入市场会对市场造成影响，那就应该明确公开声明：这种情况不会发生。

And I think the cleanest the cleanest thing to do here, narrative wise, if the concern is that large allocators are worried about protect potential market impacts on that hitting the market is being very loud about the fact that that will not happen.

我们不会提前窃取任何人的比特币。

We will not be preemptively stealing people's Bitcoin.

因为我要告诉你，事情还有另一面。

Because I'll tell you, there's also the opposite side of the equation.

中本聪本可以销毁他的比特币。

Satoshi could have burned his Bitcoin if he wanted to.

大额持有者本可以销毁他们的比特币。

Large holders could have burned their Bitcoin.

那些持有旧地址中比特币的原始持有者，如果他们愿意，本可以烧毁他们的比特币。

OG holders that are in old legacy addresses that are vulnerable to this theoretical attack could have burned their Bitcoin if they wanted to.

但他们选择不这么做。

They chose not to.

他们中的一些人可能因为担心市场影响而没有转移他们的比特币。

Some of them might not be moving their Bitcoin because of concerns over market impact.

这种实际的移动，这种散布我们即将提前没收中本聪币的叙事。

This actual movement, this idea of spreading this narrative that we're gonna preemptively seize Satoshi's coins.

如果中本聪现在真的还活着，我他妈早就转移我的比特币了。

If Satoshi's actually alive and out there right now, I'd fucking move my Bitcoin.

因为你的这种提前恐惧，反而可能真的引发你所害怕的市场影响。

Like, you might actually force the market impact that you're so scared of because of of that preemptive fear.

是的。

Yeah.

但当我这么说时，我们不该谈论这些事，这正是我的意思。

But when I say this is stuff we should be caught talking about, this is exactly what I mean.

这正是我们该进行的重要对话，因为从另一个角度看，这种想法也极其短视——比特币的关键价值之一就是财产权，你不能对别人的比特币做任何事。

Like, this is this is the important conversation to have because, like, I think it's also really shortsighted for another way where it's the one of the key values of Bitcoin is property rights and the fact that you can't do anything with anyone else's Bitcoin.

即使有一部分市场认为我们应该没收比特币，因为他们觉得短期内对价格图表有利。

And even if, like, there's gonna be a portion of the market that think we should seize Bitcoin because they think short term, it'll be better for the price chart, essentially.

但如果我们已经证明，在这些极端情况下可以偷走别人的比特币，这对比特币的长期价值主张会有什么影响？

But, like, what does that do to the long term value proposition of Bitcoin if we've proven at once under these, like, extreme circumstances we can steal people's Bitcoin?

我觉得人们没有考虑到这件事的第二层和第三层后果。

Like, I think people aren't thinking of the second and third order consequence of this.

是的。

Yeah.

可能有很多人没经历过比特币早期那些混乱的时期。

There's probably a lot of people who haven't been around for some of the messier times in Bitcoin too.

你知道，2017年是比特币非常混乱的一年。

You know, like where, 2017 was a very messy year in Bitcoin.

当时爆发了一场全面的区块大小战争。

We had a full on block size war that was raging.

当时充满了不确定性。

There was a lot of uncertainty.

还有各种空投之类的。

There were all these air drops, etcetera.

但你知道，比特币挺过来了，事实上那年的价格还大幅上涨了。

And you know, Bitcoin survived and in fact the price ripped that year.

我认为人们希望对这些问题得到简单的答案，而像‘我们在威胁出现前就部署量子安全加密方案’这样的想法，本身可能就会带来和‘未能及时部署’一样大的风险。

And I think people want easy answers to some of these things and the question, you know, like the idea that we're gonna put in a quantum secure encryption scheme before the threat is prevalent and we might make a mistake is in and of itself just as big a threat as if we don't get there in time.

所以你无论做还是不做都会陷入困境，因此必须谨慎行事，密切关注事态发展，然后在恰当的时机部署这些方案。

So you put in, you know, you're kinda damned if you do and you're damned if you don't, so you have to be prudent and watch what's going on and then put in these, you know, schemes at the right time.

此外，还值得深入探讨马特提到的短期攻击与长期攻击的区别。

And then on top of that, also have, you know, think it's worth double clicking on what Matt was talking about with the short range versus long range attacks.

比如，如果你使用的是P2WSH多签、哈希保护的地址，那你就是安全的。

Like if you are in like a P2WSH, like multi sig, you know, hash protected, like you're good.

你知道，量子计算无法破解这种方案，这属于长期防护。

You know, quantum is not gonna get you and that's long range.

所以，如果他们试图获取所谓的持有型、哈希保护的比特币，这就属于长期攻击。

So that would be a long range attack if they were trying to get, you know, hodl Bitcoin secure, hash protected Bitcoin.

但如果你在交易的那一刻进行交易，一旦存在量子计算者，你可能会面临风险。

But if you are transacting at the moment of transaction, you might be vulnerable to some sort of quantum actor if one exists.

所以目前这仍然纯粹是理论上的。

So right now it is still purely theoretical.

我认为这其实并不是什么大问题，对吧？

And I think that that's really not that big of a concern, right?

所以你可以暂时搁置它，因为它并不重要。

So you can kind of table it because it's not a big deal.

大多数人 anyway 都只是持有他们的币。

Most people are just hodling their coins anyway.

这并不会破坏比特币的价值主张。

And it doesn't like destroy the value proposition of Bitcoin.

但如果有人能获取你的币，那显然就是个大得多的问题。

But if people can get access to your coins, that's obviously a much bigger deal.

而且，你得深入研究量子力学的工作原理，这方面的讨论很多，说实话，我智商不够理解这些，但关于量子态纠错原理的讨论很多，而技术上目前还未能实现对这些机器量子态的纠错。

And then again, you have to dig into quantum, how it works, and there's a lot of talk, you know, I'm not smart enough to understand it to be honest, but there's a lot of talk about the error correction principles, and they haven't really gotten there on the technology side of being able to error correct the quantum state of these machines.

因此，它们目前还不能在实际生产中使用。

And so that means they're not really useful in production yet.

也许随时，或者几年内，就会有突破使这一切成为可能，但目前这仍然只是一种理论上的讨论。

Now there might be a breakthrough any moment or in a couple years or whenever that makes that possible, but right now it is still like, it's a theoretical conversation.

我的意思是，这是公众场合的理论性讨论。

I mean, theoretical conversation in public.

在我看来，我认为我们应该做的一件事是，定期——比如每年——开展一次关于量子技术的讨论，持续更新进展，告诉大家：如果你对比特币社区如何看待量子威胁感兴趣，现在他们正在思考这些。

And I think one of the things we should do in my opinion, my estimation is to basically, we should have like sort of a state of quantum discourse, you know, every year, or whatever, where we just sort of update as we go and say, hey, if you're interested in what the Bitcoiners are thinking about quantum, thinking this.

因为，你知道，尼克·卡特曾说过，开发者们根本没在关注这类问题，诸如此类。

Because, you know, like, one of the things that Nick Carter was saying is like, the devs are not paying attention, know, whatever.

但事实上，在普雷西迪奥比特币大会上，曾专门举办过一场关于这个问题的会议，顶级开发者们详细探讨了量子威胁、其潜在可能性，以及可以采取的措施和各类方案。

But there was a whole, you know, conference about this, like talk about this at Presidio Bitcoin where the devs were going over, you know, our highest level devs were going over the quantum threat, what the potentiality is, like, you know, what can be done, what are the types of schemes.

像亨特·比斯特在这方面已经做了极其出色的工作。

Like Hunter Beast has done an incredible amazing amount of work on this.

很多事情正在发生，但人们却并不知道。

Like there's a lot going on and people just don't know about it.

所以我认为，关键在于我们要做的是，另外一件事我想对比特币爱好者说一下。

And so I think it's really contingent on us to just sort of, instead of being, here's the other thing too about, I wanna like put this out to Bitcoiners.

我们已经用段子化解了很多麻烦。

We've memed our way out of a lot of shit.

比特币没有首席执行官，这事儿你用段子就能应付过去。

So Bitcoin has no CEO, that's just something you can meme your way out of.

比特币没有内在价值。

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.

啥叫内在价值啊，老兄？

What even is intrinsic value bro?

我们或许能用段子化解各种问题，但如果量子计算是真实的，或者将来成为现实，那就会像比特币的千年虫危机一样，不是靠段子就能躲过去的。

Like we can meme our way out of stuff, but if quantum is real or if it becomes real, it's more like a Bitcoin Y2K moment and it's not something that you can meme yourself out of.

顺便说一下，千年虫问题的故事并不是说Y2K无关紧要。

And the story of Y2K by the way is not that Y2K was not a big deal.

这个故事是说，负责更新主系统的人把这当作责任，提前完成了工作，使得千禧年问题最终没有造成任何影响。

The story was that the people that were in charge of updating the mainframe systems took it as a responsibility and did the work ahead time to make it so that Y2K ended up being nothing.

当量子计算真正到来时，比特币也会采取同样的方式应对，但这不是你能靠段子就能解决的问题。

And that is the same type of thing we will do in Bitcoin when the time comes with the quantum thing, but it's not something you can just meme your way out of.

所以我想向推特上那些只觉得‘这很有趣，兄弟’的比特币爱好者传达这个信息。

So I think that's like the message I'd like to get across to Bitcoiners on Twitter who are just like, oh, it's just fun, bro.

它在未来可能真的会成为一个大问题。

Like, it could be a real thing in the future.

但现在它还不是个实际的问题，你知道的。

It's just not a real thing, you know, right now.

有人告诉我，真正要发生的事很可能是自2017年以来首次有争议的分叉，这次是为了没收比特币。

I was told the real thing is going to be likely the first contentious fork we've had since 2017, which will be on seizing Bitcoin.

我想再强调一次。

And I just wanna reiterate this one more time.

如果海豹突击队或三角洲部队找到了中本聪，指控他为恐怖分子洗钱，并持枪抢走他的一百万枚比特币，将其加入国家战略比特币储备，那么根本就不会有人讨论是否要分叉出他们的比特币。

If Navy Seals or Delta Force or whatever found found Satoshi and accused him of money laundering for terrorists and and and took his 1,000,000 Bitcoin at gunpoint and added it to the strategic Bitcoin reserve, there'd be no conversations around forking out their Bitcoin.

如果某个在秘密实验室工作的数学天才发明了一台超强的密码破解计算机来攻击中本聪的比特币，那我们就会进行协议变更来阻止比特币。

If some math genius working in a secret lab somewhere figures out this insane crypto breaking computer to attack his Bitcoin, then we're gonna we're gonna do a protocol change to stop the Bitcoin.

这完全说不通。

That makes no fucking sense.

这在逻辑上根本说不通。

It just logically does not flow.

这要回到以太坊的DAO分叉，当时他们面临一个十字路口，却做出了错误的决定。

So this goes back to Ethereum's DAO fork, which is like, they came to this crossroads and they made the wrong decision.

那是2017年的事，想想看。

And this was back in 2017, think.

不，更早一点，是2016年。

Or no, even earlier, 2016.

他们做出了错误的决定，有人攻击了DAO，里面有很多以太坊，然后社区决定回滚交易，把那些币还给以太坊基金会和其他持有者。

They made the wrong decision and they, somebody attacked the DAO, which had a lot of Ethereum in it, and they made the community decision to roll it back and give those coins back to the Ethereum Foundation and all the other holders.

但那是错误的决定，而且这导致了链的分叉，对吧？

But that was the wrong, and that's and it created a chain split, right?

然后出现了以太坊经典，贝瑞·西尔弗开始大量收购以太坊经典，不管怎样。

And then there was Ethereum Classic and Berry Silver started buying up all the Ethereum Classic, whatever.

那是错误的决定。

That was the wrong decision.

他们在岔路口选择了错误的道路。

They took they hit that fork in the road and they made the bad path.

如果以太坊为我们做了什么，那就是展示了我们不该做什么。

And if Ethereum has done anything for us, it's shown us what not to do.

因此我们可以从他们的例子中吸取教训，避免走上这条错误的路。

So we can learn from their example and just not take the bad path.

如果你能同时降低你的税单并积累比特币呢？

What if you could lower your tax bill and stack Bitcoin at the same time?

通过使用Blockware挖矿，你就可以做到。

Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can.

来自《大美丽法案》的新税收指南允许美国矿工在单个纳税年度内全额抵扣其挖矿硬件的成本。

New tax guidelines from the big beautiful bill allow American miners to write off a 100% of the cost of their mining hardware in a single tax year.

没错。

That's right.

100%全额抵扣。

A 100% write off.

所以，如果你有10万美元的资本利得或收入，你可以购买10万美元的矿机，完全抵消掉。

So if you have a $100,000 in capital gains or income, you can purchase a $100,000 of miners and offset it entirely.

Blockware的矿机即服务让你无需动手即可立即开始挖比特币。

Blockware's mining as a service enables you to start mining Bitcoin right now without lifting a finger.

Blockware负责一切，从保障矿机安全、采购低成本电力到配置矿池，全部包办。

Blockware handles everything from securing the miners to sourcing low cost power to configuring the pool, they do it all.

你每天都能以折扣价积累比特币，同时在报税季大幅节省开支。

You get to stack Bitcoin at a discount every single day while also saving big come tax season.

立即访问 mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd 开始使用。

Get started today by going to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd.

当然，这些都不是税务建议。

Of course, none of this is tax advice.

请咨询您的会计师或税务顾问，了解这些规定如何适用于您，然后前往 mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd，每购买一台托管矿机，您将获得一周的免费托管和电力服务。

Speak to your accountant or tax adviser to understand how these rules apply to you, and then head over to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd, and you'll get one week of free hosting and electricity with each hosted miner purchased.

您是否希望在不出售比特币的情况下获得现金？

Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin?

Ledden 让这成为可能。

Well, Ledden makes that possible.

他们是全球领先的比特币抵押贷款机构，自2018年以来，已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，且始终完美保护客户资产。

They're the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets.

使用 Ledden，您可以获得全额托管贷款，无需信用审核或月度还款，只需轻松获得美元，而无需出售一个聪。

With Ledin, you get full custody loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT.

自7月1日起，Ledden 仅支持比特币，意味着他们仅提供以比特币为抵押的贷款，所有抵押品均由 Ledden 或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。

As of July 1, Ledin is Bitcoin only, meaning they exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by Ledin directly or their funding partners.

您的比特币永远不会被出借以产生利息。

Your Bitcoin is never lent out to generate interest.

我最近在 Ledden 办理了一笔贷款。

I recently took out a loan with Ledden.

整个过程非常简单。

The whole process was super easy.

申请花了我不到十五分钟，几个小时后，我就把美元到账了。

The application took me less than fifteen minutes, and in a few hours, I had the dollars in my account.

整个过程非常顺畅。

It was really smooth.

所以，如果你需要现金但不想卖出比特币，请前往 leaden.io/wbd，你的首笔贷款可享受 0.25% 的折扣。

So if you need cash but you don't wanna sell Bitcoin, head over to leaden.io/wbd, and you'll get point 25% off your first loan.

那就是 leaden.io/wbd。

That's leaden.io/wbd.

如果你已经自己保管比特币，那你一定了解硬件钱包的麻烦。

If you're already self custody of Bitcoin, you know the deal with hardware wallets.

复杂的设置、笨拙的界面，还有可能丢失、被盗或遗忘的助记词。

Complex setups, clumsy interfaces, and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen, or forgotten.

而 BitKey 解决了这些问题。

Well, BitKey fixes that.

BitKey 是由 Square 和 Cash App 团队打造的多重签名硬件钱包。

BitKey is a multisig hardware wallet built by the team behind Square and Cash App.

它将加密恢复系统和内置继承功能集成到一款直观易用的钱包中，无需为助记词担忧。

It packs a cryptographic recovery system and built in inheritance feature into an intuitive, easy to use wallet with no c phrase to sweat over.

它提供了简单而安全的自托管体验，无需压力，Time 杂志将 BitKey 评为 2024 年最佳发明之一。

It's simple, secure self custody without the stress, and Time named BitKey one of the best inventions of 2024.

在 bitkey.world 使用代码 w b D 可享受 20% 折扣。

Get 20% off at bitkey.world when you use the code w b D.

访问 bitkey.world 并使用代码 w b d。

That's bitkey.world and use the code w b d.

好了，马特。

Alright, Matt.

在我们继续之前，我想要一个单词的回答。

Just before we move on from this, I want a one word answer.

是或否。

Yes or no.

你同意这个类比吗？

Do you agree with that analogy?

什么？

What?

这就像分叉怀疑吗？

That is like the doubt fork?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得已经足够接近了。

I think it's it's it's close enough.

你还记得我们去你家录音的时候吗？

Do you remember when we were recording at your house?

我用了完全相同的类比，你说这是个愚蠢的观点。

I used that exact same analogy, you told me it was a dumb take.

那我当时说这是个什么理由来着？

So What was my re what was my reasoning for saying it was a

愚蠢的观点？

dumb take?

记得吗。

Remember.

那已经是很久以前的事了，但我记得你告诉我那是糟糕的观点。

That was quite a while ago, but I remember you telling me it was a bad take.

当你忘记录音的时候。

When you forgot to record.

卡尔，你看，你总是这样躲躲闪闪。

Carl, you see, you're always just you're slippy.

你在逃避问题。

You're getting out of it.

不过我们该谈谈特朗普了，因为在这方面，马特，当我回听时，你的观点非常糟糕。

We should talk about Trump, though, because this was one area where, Matt, when I was listening back, you had a really poor take.

你说你有90%的把握今年会建立战略储备。

You said 90% sure we would have a strategic reserve this year.

嗯。

Yeah.

好吧，我们没有。

Well, we didn't.

我们有。

We did

是有了，但那是个糟糕的储备。

get one, but it's it's a shitty one.

亨特，你对特朗普第一年整体表现怎么看？

What Hunter, what's your take on Trump's entire first year?

天啊。

Oh my god.

这真的让人非常失望。

It's been it's been wildly disappointing.

就像比特币市场一样，我觉得也很令人失望。

Just like the Bitcoin market, it's been disappointing, I think.

你知道吗？

You know?

我觉得，特朗普的支持者认为，政府的注意力更多放在了地缘政治和外交事务上，而不是国内事务，人们并没有得到他们投票支持的东西。

Seems that the focus I think the big thing that the Trump base feels is that the focus has been much more on geopolitical foreign affairs than it has been here at home, and people are not really getting what they voted for.

因此，人们对这一点感到失望，而特朗普政府则在做一些表演性的举措，比如遣返人数并没有达到应有的水平，于是国土安全部在X平台上用《Little Dark Age》做TikTok剪辑，仿佛在说：‘看，我们遣返这个人时多酷啊。’

And so there's disappointment about that, and then the Trump admin is doing sort of these performative measures, like for instance the deportation numbers are not as high as they should be, and so ICE is doing TikTok edits to Little Dark Age on X and it's like, yo, look how like fucking cool we're being while we deport this person.

对吧？

Right?

根本没人想要这种东西。

It's like nobody actually wants that.

你明明应该去治理国家，干嘛要在X上装酷呢？

That's a I don't know why you're trying to be cool on X instead of governing.

对吧？

Right?

或者说，我们好像正在由播客主持人来管理政府，比如丹·邦吉诺就在播客里说，如果他进入FBI，他就能把它整顿好。

So Or like, you know, we it kinda seems like we have podcasters running the government, Like, Dan Bongino was on a podcast saying if he got into the FBI, he would fix it.

然后他进了FBI，说：这事儿真难搞。

And then he got into the FBI and he was like, this shit is tough.

我还是回去做播客吧。

I'm going back to podcasting.

这他妈是啥情况？

It's like, what the fuck?

我不知道啊，老兄。

I don't know, man.

或者吧，这感觉很奇怪。

Or like, it's weird.

你看，史蒂文·米勒的妻子在做播客，卡什·帕特尔也带着他女朋友上了节目。

It's like I'm watching Steven Miller's wife has a podcast and Cash Patel is on there with his girlfriend.

为什么FBI局长要带着女朋友上播客？

Like, why is the FBI director on a podcast with his girlfriend?

这种打破常规的行为让我觉得特别怪异，尤其是在追捕布朗枪击案嫌犯的关键时刻，这到底有什么意义？

This is just weird norm breaking for me, and it's like what is it accomplishing in the middle of a manhunt for the Brown shooting suspect?

他在做播客。

He's doing the podcast.

现在发生的事真的很奇怪。

It's very odd what's going on.

就像这样，我不知道，整个特朗普政府都特别做作，当然我投了特朗普，你知道，我觉得这比哈里斯执政要好，因为如果是哈里斯执政，我们肯定会完全被逼到墙角，尤其是作为比特币用户。

It's like this, I don't know, the whole Trump admin has been very performative, and obviously I voted for Trump, and you know, I think it's better than what we would have had with Harris, because with Harris we would have been completely under the gun, especially as Bitcoin people.

而且在未来的民主党政府下，我们可能还是会这样，所以现在最好保持低调。

And we probably still will be in a future Democrat administration, so keep your nose clean now.

你不懂我的意思吗？

Don't you know what I mean?

比如，别再发那些你讨厌的民主党参议员的推文了。

Like, maybe don't tweet that thing about the Democrat senator you hate.

但没错，这确实让人失望。

But, yeah, it's been disappointing.

令人失望。

Disappointing.

嗯。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我同意这一点。

I'm I mean, I agree with that.

有趣的是，作为一个局外人，你只要说一句特朗普的坏话，就会被说成是‘特朗普妄想症’。

Like, the funny thing is, though, as especially as an outsider, you can't say anything negative about Trump without, like, being told you have Trump derangement syndrome.

但今年看起来简直是一团糟。

But this year seems like a shit show.

我还没看到他竞选以来有什么特别积极的成果。

Like, I I don't see that much positive stuff that's come out of his his campaign so far.

我同意哈里斯可能更糟，但这并不意味着特朗普就做得好。

And I agree that, like, Harris might have been worse, but it doesn't mean Trump's been good.

还有，马特，我要说说你那个战略储备的电话。

And, Matt, I'm giving you shit about the strategic reserve call.

我也觉得是这样。

Like, I thought the same thing.

显然，你从来都不会知道。

Obviously, you were never gonna know.

但你觉得现在第一年快结束了，好的比特币政策理念是不是已经结束了？

But do you think now that, like, first year is nearly up, that the kind of idea of good Bitcoin policy is over?

还是你觉得这事儿还有潜力？

Or do you think there's still legs in it?

首先，我还在想着道指分叉的事，我想向你道歉。

Well, first of all, I'm still thinking about the Dow fork, and I just want to apologize to you.

我原谅你，马特。

I forgive you, Matt.

但很明显，人们的观点会改变。

But, clearly, people's opinions change.

上次我们聊天时，我还没怎么考虑量子计算，但现在我得一直不停地谈论它。

I would tell you, when we we chatted last, I wasn't thinking about quantum as much, and now I have to talk about it all the fucking time.

所以你看。

So look.

我认为在特朗普这边，首先比哈里斯好太多了。

I think on the Trump side, first of all, way better than Harris.

根本没法比。

Like, it's not even close.

完全没法比。

Absolutely not even close.

我们曾经濒临这样的境地：我和我们的朋友、全国各地的重要企业以及比特币用户，都会被联邦机构持枪突袭家门。

I, we were on the verge of like us and our friends and important businesses and Bitcoin throughout the country, having the feds, like, raid their houses at gunpoint.

真的非常非常糟糕。

Like, it was really, really bad.

但我们让罗斯获释了。

And we got Ross free.

罗斯自由了。

Ross is free.

这是个巨大的胜利。

That's a huge win.

我真希望看到那些武士开发者获得赦免。

I would love to see the samurai developers get pardoned.

我认为这对政府来说，是比特币方面另一个简单而切实的胜利。

I think that's another easy tangible win for the administration on the Bitcoin side.

我觉得，特朗普本人以及他身边很多人都是非常务实的。

I think, you know, the Trump administration himself and a lot of the people around him are very, very transactional.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们似乎一直在充实自己的腰包，而不是充实美国政府的国库。

And it seems like they've been filling up their own coffers rather than filling up the US government's coffers on Bitcoin.

我的意思是，他的儿子直接拥有一家自己的美国比特币公司。

I mean, his son literally has his own American Bitcoin company.

特朗普有特朗普媒体。

Trump has Trump media.

顺便提一下，你提到那个棕色皮肤的人。

You mentioned the brown guy, by the way.

特朗普媒体不仅在囤积比特币，而且就在我们顶尖聚变研究员在家被他妈的谋杀后，他们立即与自己的聚变公司进行了五五合并。

Like, Trump media is not only stacking Bitcoin, but they're also doing a fifty fifty merger with their fusion company right after our top fusion researcher gets fucking murdered in his house.

所以，你知道，也许是可口可乐，也许不是。

So, you know, maybe it's Coke, maybe it's not.

但我认为，存在一种策略：当你看到他们和他们的亲信把袋子装满后，才开始实施战略性的比特币储备计划。

But the I think there is a play where you see the strategic Bitcoin reserve stuff happen after he has, him and his cronies have their bags fully packed.

但正如哈德尔所说，我们从技术上讲确实拥有一个战略性的比特币储备。

But as Huddl said, we do technically have a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

但它主要只是不卖出我们已经偷来的比特币。

It's mostly just not selling Bitcoin that we've already stolen.

我不喜欢这种先例：被偷的比特币被用来充实储备，并将被用作储备。

I do not like that the precedent is being set that stolen Bitcoin is seeding the reserve and will be used to reserve.

我更希望看到一项法律明确规定，被偷的比特币必须被销毁。

I would I would much rather see a law in the books that says stolen Bitcoin has to get burned.

不过，我并不主张通过协议变更来强制执行这一点。

I would not advocate for a protocol change to force that, though.

那就是我们所有人重新聚在一起的地方。

And that's where we all come back together.

但我要说，不管怎么讲，拜登去年和今年相比，比特币的情况要好得多。

But I will say that look, no matter how you cut it, you know, the last year Biden versus this year, it's just been way better for Bitcoin.

比特币的情况好了太多了。

It's been so much better for Bitcoin.

在政策方面，我认为BPI的那群人做得非常出色。

I'll say on the policy side, I think, you know, the guys at BPI are doing an incredible job.

随着时间推移，他们似乎变得越来越优秀。

They only seem to be getting better and better as time goes on.

能拥有一个由聪明、有抱负的年轻人才组成的智囊团，他们在华盛顿做了大量基础工作，这真不错。

And it's been nice to have our own think tank of really intelligent, you know, smart, young, ambitious guys who are doing a lot of that legwork in Washington.

我对他们的团队非常看好，我认为未来还会有更多政策上的胜利。

And I'm very bullish on their team and you know, I think there are more policy wins ahead.

我知道他们正在忙很多事。

I know they're working on a lot of stuff.

显然，在华盛顿推动事情进展并不容易，这需要巨大的努力，是一场日复一日的苦战。

Obviously, it's not so easy to get you know, things accomplished in Washington And it's big effort and it's a fucking you know, daily grind.

你必须亲自出马，四处奔走，与人交谈、握手、甚至亲吻婴儿。

You gotta show up and really pound the pavement, talk to people and shake hands and kiss babies.

所以，是的，我认为我们会看到更多的胜利。

So yeah, I think that we are gonna see more wins.

只是你知道，我们必须保持耐心。

It's just you know, we're gonna have to be patient.

我想说的是，在SBR方面，不仅SBR成功设立，我们还创建了一个主权财富基金。

I will say, on the SBR side, not only did we have technically the SBR get created, but we also had a sovereign wealth fund get created.

而最重要的是，我认为我们收购了英特尔大约10%的股份。

And and the big one was I think we bought, like, 10% of intel.

是美国政府做的。

The US government did.

这当然不是一个无关紧要的举动，但我对这个判断完全没有把握。

Now this is a nonzero call, but not I'm definitely not confident in this call at all.

但我只是想直接出击，争取一击制胜。

But I'm just gonna I'm just gonna point and try and hit the home run.

明年，为了阻止比特币市场的持续下跌，如果美国政府以折扣价收购微策略公司20%的股份，会不会就此扭转整个局面？

Next year, to stop the bleeding of the Bitcoin market, what if the US government goes out and buys 20% of MicroStrategy at a discount and turns the whole fucking thing around.

这在我看来并不是最离谱的设想，实际上可能会带来积极得多的结果。

That would be I I don't think that's the most far fetched scenario to to play out and actually would probably be way more positive.

我肯定会更看好这种做法，而不是去偷窃人们的比特币并把它们放进SBR。

I would definitely be way more positive than going and stealing people's Bitcoin and putting it in the SBR.

如果他们收购了微策略10%的股份，这会不会本质上为将来 outright接管微策略铺平道路？

If they went and bought a 10% of strategy, would that basically just lay the groundwork for them going in and stealing strategy in the future?

本质上，就是通过以折扣价收购微策略来拯救整个行业。

And basically, like, bail out the entire industry by buying MicroStrategy at a discount.

是的。

Yeah.

既然他们可以印钞，我觉得他们根本没必要去偷比特币，对吧？

How do we I don't think there's an for them to steal coins when they can print currency, you know?

战略储备之所以用被盗的比特币或执法调查所得的非法收益来填充，是因为他们认为这是一种简单干净的方式，既能兑现对比特币支持者的承诺，又不会触怒华盛顿的权贵。

Like, the the reason that the the strategic reserve is being seeded with, you know, stolen Bitcoin or, you know, the the investigation sorry, the the proceeds, criminal proceeds from law enforcement investigations is because they thought that that was an easy clean way that they could win on this and give the Bitcoiners what they promised us while also not stepping on toes in Washington.

对我们来说，我们看到了这一行动长期的负面连锁反应，但对他们而言，这不过是‘嘿，这很简单，把比特币给比特币爱好者吧’。

And to us we see the negative long term downstream consequences of that action but to them it was just like, hey here's an easy one, give the Bitcoiners this.

我们已经拥有这些币了，它们是从罪犯手里没收的，直接把它们放进储备金里就行了——我觉得，作为MicroStrategy的股东，我至今仍持有MicroStrategy，已经持有五年了，有时我独自一人时会想，我们其实正在参与一项为美国积累比特币的工程。

You know we already have it, we already took it from the criminals, just give it to them and put it in the reserve or I think that I have said this as a MicroStrategy shareholder and I still own MicroStrategy, I've owned it for a while now, like five years now, that I kind of think sometimes to myself when I'm alone that we're just engaged in this project of stacking America's Bitcoin.

这正是我们作为MSCR股东正在做的事情。

That's kind of what we're doing as MSCR shareholders.

我认为马特的预测很可能会被时间证明是正确的：未来MicroStrategy与美国政府之间，可能会形成类似英特尔与政府的那种关系。

And I do think Matt's call is probably gonna age well that there will be some type of relationship between MicroStrategy and the US government similar to the Intel relationship.

但我的问题是，坦率地说，你是否真的担心美国政府某天会出手夺取MicroStrategy的比特币？

But, like, my question on that though is, like, do you have a like, real realistically, be very honest, do you have a fear that the US government steps in and tries to take Strategy's coins at some point?

我不认为他们会直接这么做，因为那样等于放弃了美国资本主义的幌子。

I I don't think they're gonna do it outright like that because it gives up the game of American capitalism.

只有当他们陷入真正绝境、游戏即将结束时，才可能孤注一掷地这么做。

So that would be they're in truly dire straits, and it's a hail Mary effort, you know, at the very end of the game.

我认为更有可能的是这种缓慢而无力的方式，就像马特指出的那样，你先拿一块牛排，然后拿大一点的，再拿更大一点的，全部用印出来的钱，你知道，这就像是不劳而获。

I think much more likely it's gonna be this slow, insipid thing, kinda like Matt pointed out where it's like you take a steak and then you take a slightly larger steak and then take a slightly larger, again all with printed money and then you know, that's like getting something for nothing.

所以，当你能慢慢侵蚀、随着时间推移最终获得全部储备时，为什么还要像持棍暴徒一样一次性抢走呢？

So why do you need to come in as like jackboot thugs and steal it all in one go when you could just like sort of transgress slowly over time and end up with the entire hoard anyway?

这是一家美国科技公司，将他们的比特币存放在多家美国金融机构中。

Yeah, it's an American technology company that's holding their Bitcoin with multiple American financial companies.

另外，我不知道现在的MNAV具体是多少，但它的交易价格已经非常接近折价，甚至可能已经折价交易了。

That's also I don't know what the exact MNAV is right now, but it's pretty close to trading at a discount if it's not already trading at a discount.

所以你可以介入。

So you can come in.

股东们在这一年之后，我认为会非常积极。

The shareholders would actually be very I think would be positive after this year for MicroStrategy.

如果特朗普宣布以略低于市价的价格收购了20%的MicroStrategy股票，我认为股东们会欣喜若狂。

I think shareholders would be ecstatic if Trump came out and announced that he bought 20% of MicroStrategy at a slight discount to market price.

我认为大多数人会感到高兴，而不是像哈德尔所说的那样，直接采取强盗式的 authoritarian 行为，把所有比特币都抢走。

And I think I think I think most people would be happy as opposed to as as Huddl said, which is like, pretty obvious, like authoritarianism move of just stealing all the Bitcoin.

我现在想再次强调一下，美国政府也可能通过一台秘密的量子计算机来攻击中本聪的比特币，从而获得SBR。

Now I just wanna put this out there once again that, you know, the US government could also see the SBR by having a secret quantum computer that attacks Satoshi's Bitcoin.

这很有趣。

And it it's interesting.

比如，我不知道是否真的存在这种情况，我还没和别人讨论过这个问题，但我计划去谈，因为我觉得这将是一个会持续很久的漫长对话。

Like, did the I wonder if and I haven't had these conversations yet, and I plan to have it because I think this is gonna be a very long conversation that happens for a while.

但对于那些支持冻结资产的人而言，情况会因谁夺取了比特币而有所不同。

But with the proponents of the the freezing stuff, if it changes depending on who seizes it, who who who steals who steals the Bitcoin.

如果是美国政府将其没收并纳入SBR，他们会对此感到满意吗？

If it's the US government and it gets seized into an SBR, are they cool with it?

如果是中方政府，他们就不认同了吗？

If it's the Chinese government, are they not cool with it?

如果是初创公司，他们就不被允许拿走吗？

If it's a startup, do they are startups not allowed to take it?

这很有趣，因为我觉得这会改变人们看待这个问题的角度。

It's interesting because it it kinda change I think it changes people's framing on how they think about it.

但话说回来，不管他们是否购买了MSTR的股份，从实际角度来看。

But, yeah, I mean, for all intents and purposes, regardless regardless if they buy if they buy if they buy a stake in MSTR.

MSTR的比特币是美国境内的比特币，可以被征税、收割和利用，你根本不需要实际没收它。

MSTR Bitcoin is American domiciled Bitcoin that can be taxed and harvested and taken advantage of regard you don't have to actually seize it.

没错。

Right.

正是如此。

Exactly.

我想聊聊关于武士开发者的事，奥德尔。

I wanna talk a little bit about the samurai devs, Odell.

这个话题特别适合你。

This one's right up your alley.

显然，这件事并不是在特朗普执政时期开始的。

Like, I so this obviously didn't start under the Trump regime.

这是在拜登时期发生的。

This was under Biden.

但当案件进入法庭时，我原本以为他们会得到比实际更轻的判决。

But when it went to court, I did expect them to get a more lenient sentence than they got.

我觉得他们面临的刑罚已经是最高限度了。

Like, it was the absolute maximum I think they were they were up for.

你认为他们获得赦免的可能性有多大？现实一点说。

Do you think there's any chance, like, realistic chance of a pardon for them?

他们被指控犯有洗钱阴谋罪，最高可判二十五年。

Well, they were being charged with conspiracy for money laundering conspiracy, which had up to twenty five years.

他们还被指控从事未经许可的资金传输业务，这相当于没有对金融机构进行KYC审核，最高可判五年。

And they were being charged for unlicensed money transmitter business, which is basically, like, not running KYC on, like, a financial institution, which had a charge of five years.

他们通过认罪协议承认了未经许可的资金传输业务罪名，以换取洗钱指控被撤销，但随后仍被判处了该罪名的最高刑期。

And they they pled guilty in a plea deal for the unlicensed money transmitter business to drop the money laundering charge and then got got hit with the max sentencing for that.

所以他们被判了五年。

So they got five years.

所以，严格来说，他们并没有被判处最高刑期。

So they didn't you know, technically, they didn't get the max sentencing.

现在这是一个自托管钱包。

Now it's a self custody wallet.

比如，FinCEN自己也说他们不是资金传输业务。

Like, FinCEN themselves said they are not a money transmitter business.

所以被判定犯有这项罪名简直是荒谬至极。

So it's a ridiculous fucking charge to be found guilty of.

现在反对观点是，他们认罪了。

Now the counterargument is that they pled to it.

现在，基昂和比尔，基昂已经公开表示，这基本上是被迫认罪。

Now, Keon and Bill, I have Keon has publicly said that it was basically a coerced plea.

就像，他当时就在那里。

Like, he was, like, looking there.

他们都有家庭。

They they have families.

他们不想，他们害怕会被判二十五年监禁。

They didn't wanna they were they were afraid they were gonna get thrown in jail for twenty five years.

他们接受了这项协议。

And they they took the deal.

我希望他们能获得赦免。

I would like to see them pardoned.

我觉得这是一场荒谬的审判。

I think it's a travesty.

我觉得这对美国来说真的很糟糕。

I think it's I think it's really bad for America.

我觉得这对美国的伤害比对比特币的伤害还要大。

I think it is worse for America than it is for Bitcoin.

但作为一名美国人，作为一名在这里创业的人，作为一名在这里建立家庭的人，我希望看到这个错误得到纠正。

But as an American, as someone who builds businesses here, as someone who is building a family here, I would like to see that wrong righted.

但没错，我认为重要的是要再次意识到，我不是律师，但这是联邦法院，是纽约联邦法院。

But yeah, I think it's important to realize, once again, I'm not a lawyer, but this is a federal court, but it's the New York Federal Court.

这是同一个起诉过特朗普的法院。

This is the same court that went after Trump.

在很多方面，我认为这是拜登政府的遗留问题。

This is, in a lot of ways, I think leftovers of the Biden administration.

特朗普手上现在有一大堆事情要处理。

And Trump has got a bunch of things on this plate.

对他来说，提前介入就像一场注定不会发生的空谈。

For him to like preemptively get involved there is like, net was never really gonna happen.

而且我们当时也没有太多资金支持他们。

We also didn't have that much money behind them.

你知道，我确实参与了他们的筹款活动。

You know, like, was involved in in raising their fundraising.

我想我们最终在法律辩护上筹集了大约一百万美元。

Like, I think we ended up getting, like, in legal defense ones, like a little over $1,000,000.

如果你是像郑长锋或孙宇晨这样的人，你可以支付特朗普数千万美元，以确保获得赦免。

If you're someone like CZ, or Justin Sun or whatever, you can pay Trump, like, tens of millions of dollars to guarantee a pardon.

而我们背后根本没有这样的资本。

We just didn't have that kind of capital behind us.

所以我认为，需要讲一个更富有故事性的叙事来打动他，因为我觉得这种方式对他有效。

So it needs to be more of a narrative story, I think, to reach him because I think that does work with him.

而且他最近对此发表过评论。

And he has commented on it recently.

所以希望我们能在这里看到一些进展。

So hopefully, we hopefully, we do see a part in here.

我觉得他们值得获得一次，我觉得这对国家有好处。

I think I think they deserve one, I think it's good for the country.

等等。

Wait.

我没听清那部分。

I missed that.

特朗普对武士案发表过评论吗？

Did Trump comment on the Samurai case?

嗯。

Yeah.

当时有一位专门在白宫的Decrypto记者问他这件事，但他似乎对此一无所知。

There was a decrypto reporter specifically in the White House that asked him about it, and he didn't seem aware of it.

但他表示会去调查一下。

But he said he was gonna look into it.

我看了Keon妻子发布的视频，关于他入狱的过程，还有他们提前吃圣诞晚餐的场景，显然因为他即将被关进联邦监狱，这些画面非常令人难过，你知道的。

I watched the videos of that Keon's wife had posted, you know, of him going into prison, and you know, of them having early Christmas dinner, obviously, because he was going to be in federal prison, and those were very difficult to watch and you know.

我认为，正如马特所说，认罪协议其实是很普遍的。

I think there's a, like Matt said, like the plea thing by the way is the norm.

这种协议是被迫的，但这也正是联邦检察官胜率如此之高的原因——他们迫使每个人都认罪。

It is coerced but that's why the feds have such a high win rate is because they coerce everybody.

所以联邦检察官除非确信能赢，否则根本不会对你提起诉讼，而他们赢的方式就是告诉你：你要坐牢一辈子，或者你可以只服刑五年，五年后就能回归生活。再次强调，如果你有家庭，面对三十年和五年的选择，明智的做法永远是选五年，这虽然不会让你在推特上显得很酷，但当你想到要错过孩子未来25个生日时，谁还在乎推特上的形象呢？

So the feds really don't bring a case against you unless they know they can win it and the way they win it is by being like you're going away forever or you can go away for this five year stretch and get back to your life after five years and like again if you have a family and you're looking at thirty years verse five, the smart play is to take five every time and like it doesn't you know make you cool on Twitter, but who gives a shit about being cool on Twitter when you're talking about missing 25 more birthdays of your children.

对吧？

Right?

所以，他们正在经历的是一种非常残酷的现实。

And so that's a really rough reality that they're going through.

我认为马特提到的这一点对美国来说很糟糕，是因为，嗯，我也不是律师，但在美国，法律的基本原则是，只要一件事没有被明确列为非法，那就是合法的。

I think the thing that Matt was talking about, the reason why it's bad for America is because, you know, I'm not a lawyer either, but in America the law of the land is essentially that if something is not explicitly illegal, that it is legal to do.

就CoinJoin的实现而言，在我看来，它们处于法律的灰色地带。

And in the case of CoinJoin implementations, in my opinion, those were in a legal gray area.

它们从未被明确界定过。

They had not been explicitly defined.

因此，我认为把金融科技领域中那些并非明确违法的初创企业投资者关进监狱，是一场灾难。

And so I think it is a disaster that we're throwing startup investors in jail for doing things in the Fintech space that were not strictly illegal.

明白吗？

Know?

我的意思是，政府声称这些行为基于意图是明确非法的，但我完全不这么认为。

I mean the government's claim is that they were strictly illegal based on intent essentially, but that's not my view at all.

如果你看看罗斯·乌布里希和基翁·罗德里格斯的案例，你知道，罗斯做的明显要非法得多。

And I think like if you look at the cases of Ross Ulbrich versus Kion Rodriguez, you know Ross is doing something that's much more explicitly illegal Totally.

比基翁要严重得多。

Than Kion was.

而且我不是觉得他做错了，或者在道德上有错，我觉得罗斯应该获得自由。

And not that I think it was wrong what he did, or morally wrong, you know, think Ross deserves to be free.

但对我来说，Samurai 案件更清晰，而且我认为这些人就是我们这边的，对吧？

But like to me the Samurai case is even cleaner, and I do think that these are our guys, right?

所以，是啊，推特上吵得不可开交，你知道的，你是 Wasabi 还是 Samurai？

So like, yeah, mean there was flame wars on Twitter, and you know, were you Wasabi or were you Samurai?

谁在乎啊？

Who gives a fuck?

我们都是比特币支持者，这些人是我们的同志，我们不会抛弃任何人，让我们去把他们救出来，你知道吧？

We're all Bitcoiners, these are our guys, we don't leave anybody behind, let's go get them out of jail, You know?

就这样。

Period.

我们把罗斯救出来了。

We got Ross out.

现在去把他们也救出来。

Let's go get them out.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为叙事将非常重要，因为罗斯之所以能获释，显然归功于他母亲、自由意志主义团体和比特币社区的大量出色工作，但同时也得益于一个与特朗普选民产生强烈共鸣的叙事。

I think the narrative's gonna be really important because, like, the reason Ross is free is, like, obviously down to a ton of amazing work from, like, his mom and the libertarian group and then Bitcoiners, but it was also a really strong narrative that resonated with Trump voters.

我觉得我们需要制造大量声势，努力让他关注这个话题。

Like, I think we need to make a lot of noise and try and make him care about this topic.

但是，小田，有没有觉得沮丧？这次筹款只筹集了刚刚超过一百万美元，而我认为Tornado Cash那位人士筹到的金额是这个的十倍？

But, Oda, was it frustrating that this only raised, like, just over $1,000,000 when I think the Tornado Cash guy raised was it 10 times that amount?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你看，我们在幕后和公开场合努力争取支持时，所有聚光灯却都集中在那些名人和意见领袖加入 treasury 公司董事会的事情上，这真的非常令人沮丧。

I mean, look, it was it was super frustrating trying to build support for this stuff behind the scenes and in public while all the all the limelight was on name and influencer joining a treasury company board.

这纯粹只是为了分一杯羹。

Like, that's literally just to to get their piece.

对吧？

Right?

他们这么做并不是为了比特币的好。

Like, they weren't doing it for the good of Bitcoin.

咱们坦诚点说。

Let's be honest here.

这没什么。

That's fine.

他们只是为了混口饭吃，奖励自己多年在推特上的发帖。

They were doing it to get their bread and and to reward their family for years of Twitter posting.

他们就是这么做的。

That's what they were doing.

而这种行为却被捧为英雄事迹。

And that was highlighted as being heroic.

人们说，比特币推特变成了领英。

People were like Bitcoin Twitter became LinkedIn.

简直就是：我去加入了一个扯淡的国库公司董事会。

It was like, I'm joining the board of bullshit treasury company.

然后下面的所有评论都在说：恭喜，恭喜，恭喜，恭喜，恭喜。

And then all the posts underneath was like, congrats, congrats, congrats, congrats, congrats.

与此同时，为Samurai筹集资金或获得任何实际支持却一直举步维艰。

And then meanwhile, like, fundraising or getting any kind of real tangible support for Samurai was was really floundering.

我得说，今年这确实令人失望，但最近一个月左右，看到人们逐渐转变态度，支持比预期多得多，真的让人感到振奋。

Now I will say that was very disappointing this year, but the last month or so, it's been really it's been really cool to see people coming around to there's been a lot more support than I've expected.

所以我认为，积极的一面是，过去一个月确实很不错。

So I I think I the positive side, it's been it's it's been good to see in last month.

我还要说，这种趋势已经超越了比特币本身。

I will also say it's been broader than Bitcoin.

比如，我们在自由意志主义圈子中也看到了这种现象。

Like, we're seeing it in libertarian circles.

我们在追求自由理念的群体中也看到了这种趋势。

We're seeing it just in freedom mind in circles.

我的意思是，基恩上了英国的一个电视节目。

I mean, Kean got on a on a television show in The UK.

他们那边痛恨自由。

Like, they hate freedom over there.

但不知为何，他们想支持武士。

But for some reason, they wanted to support samurai.

看到这一点真的非常棒。

And, like, that that was really cool to see.

我需要在这里说清楚：在美国这边，我们当中没有人是律师，存在很多误解。

I wanna be clear here On the American side, you know, there's none of us are lawyers, and there's a lot of misunderstanding.

这在美国并不构成法律先例，因为他们认罪了。

This doesn't set a legal precedent in America because they pled.

如果他们选择抗辩并输了，那才会形成法律先例。

If they tried to fight it and lost, then it would have set a legal precedent.

所以，我们这里不需要担心有任何法律先例。

So there's there's not a legal precedent we have to be worried here.

CoinJoin、自托管钱包、注重隐私的自托管钱包仍处于法律灰色地带。

CoinJoin, self custody wallets, privacy focused self custody wallets remain in a legal gray area.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们现在就处于这种状态。

That's where we are right now.

但发生的事情是，我经常看到这种情况，尤其是在OpenSAT这边，我们支持着来自40多个国 家的350多位开发者，人们在开发自托管和注重隐私的软件时，确实感受到了明显的寒蝉效应。

But what has happened, and I see this all the time, particularly on the OpenSAT side where we're supporting three fifty plus developers in 40 plus countries, is there has been a tangible chilling effect on people working on self custody and privacy focused software, period.

这很好理解，因为没人想被关进监狱。

And that makes sense because no one wants to be thrown in jail.

这不仅仅是被关进监狱那么糟糕。

And it's worse than just being thrown in jail.

他们派了40多名全副武装的联邦特工突袭了他家。

They had 40 plus federal agents with guns raid his fucking house.

像他这样的情况，即使算犯罪，也是非暴力的。

Like, he did there's a nonviolent if he was a criminal, it's a nonviolent crime.

他们却像执行战术突袭一样冲进他家抓人，这太疯狂了。

And they they did, like, a tactical raid on his house to to arrest him, which is insane.

这种寒蝉效应还存在吗？

Is that chilling effect still there?

因为我知道他们被捕后，比如华莱士·东尼退出了美国，凤凰也退出了美国，但我想他们现在都回来了。

Because I know after they got arrested, like, Wallace Toshie pulled out of The US, Phoenix pulled out of The US, but they're, I think, both now back now.

而且，显然，特朗普给了人们一定程度的信心，让他们觉得可以开发这些东西而不必坐牢。

And, obviously, like, Trump gave people some degree of confidence that they could build this stuff without going to prison.

但你觉得这还不够吗？

But do you think that's not enough?

这种寒蝉效应还在发生吗？

Is there still that sort of chilling effect happening?

是啊，老兄。

Yeah, man.

我是Mutiny的投资人。

I mean, I was an investor in Mutiny.

我想马特也是。

I think Matt was as well.

就像Mutiny一样，这件事发生当天，他们就说，我们现在要成为一家以隐私为核心的AI公司。

And like Mutiny, you know, the day this happened, like, came down, they were like, you know, we're gonna be a privacy focused AI company now.

所以他们直接关闭了业务，转而走了另一条路，因为他们原本计划通过CoinJoin实现盈利。

So like, they just completely shut down the business and went a different direction because they were planning to make money on CoinJoin implementations.

是的。

So yeah.

我只是想说

I would just say

确实如此。

It was.

我只是想说，我不确定这个转型是否仅仅因为法律担忧，因为如果我要再做一个判断，我觉得以隐私为核心的AI可能会比隐私为核心的金融更成为热点问题，而且是两倍。

Will just say, I don't know if that pivot was only because of of legal concerns because if I'm gonna make another call, like, I I think privacy focused AI will might become even more of a hot button issue than privacy focused financial But two times.

时间，我不确定这是否是因为你知道的原因？

Time, I'm not sure that was for you know?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得当时有很多幻灭，我不会替他们说话。

I I think there was a lot of disillusionment, and I'm not gonna put words in their mouth.

但我觉得，人们就是觉得，致力于比特币自由使用的企业很难经营，这本身就是一项非常困难的生意。

But, like, I I think there there was just a a feeling that it it wasn't, you know, trying to trying to build a business that is focused on freedom usage of Bitcoin is a very hard business to run period.

这个市场并不大。

There's not a huge market for it.

对。

Right.

我们在这个行业看到的大多数成功案例都是金融服务，比如买卖比特币、提供贷款。

Most of most of the successes we've seen in the industry is financial services is buy, sell Bitcoin as loans.

真正的商业机会就在这里。

That that's where you see the real business opportunities.

对吧？

Right?

比如Strike，简直是碾压性的成功。

Like, strike is absolutely crushing.

那些专注于自由导向的比特币的公司正面临更大的困难。

Companies that are trying to focus on freedom focused Bitcoin are having a much harder time.

至于武士项目，如果你完全失败，或者 somehow 找到了成功，武士项目取得了巨大成功，非常盈利。

And then with the Samurai stuff, it's like if And then so you either completely fail as a business, or if you somehow find success, Samurai found a lot of success, they were very profitable.

然后你就会被关进监狱。

Then you get thrown in jail.

无论哪种情况，你都会输。

It's like you lose in either situation.

至于凤凰和瓦尔多·中本聪这一边，我认为这是非美国公司的一种过度反应，它们认为一个简单的风险管理方案就是直接退出美国市场，但我认为这甚至可能根本帮不上忙，因为它们根本不对用户进行KYC。

And on the Phoenix and the Waldo Satoshi side, was I think that was a bit of an overreaction by non American based companies that thought a very easy risk management solution was to just remove themselves from The US market, which I think it could even be argued that that doesn't really help you anyway because, I mean, they're not doing KYC on users.

所以美国人无论如何都能绕过这一点。

So Americans could get around it regardless.

但这些并不是注重隐私的钱包。

But those aren't privacy focused wallets.

你使用瓦尔多实际上根本得不到任何隐私保护的好处。

You're you're getting no privacy benefits really from using Wallacei.