比特币被低估，但底部尚未到来 | Rational Root

对吧？

Right?

因此，我们所经历的这些事件实际上导致了下跌。

And so, events that we have seen actually now made us drop.

所以，在这张图表中，我根据短期持有者的亏损基础设定了几个水平，这些水平大致表示短期持有者能承受多少损失。

So, in this chart, I actually have some levels based on the short term Holocaust basis, And basically, those levels are, you know, how much loss can a short term holder sustain.

因此，我们有短期持有者支撑位和中间层水平。

And so, we have this short term holder floor and the mezzanine level in between.

在2月5日的下跌中，我们几乎触及了这个水平——这是日线收盘数据，但如果看实际价格，我们几乎碰到了短期持有者支撑位。

And so, with February 5 drop, we nearly reached, so this is actually daily close data, but if you would look at the actual price, we nearly touched that short term holder floor level.

现在我们又回升了，大致回到了中间层水平之上。

And now we kind of moved up again about, you know, above that mezzanine level.

所以我们现在处于这两个水平之间，如果我们回顾比特币的历史，这是一个非常常见的位置。

So we're in the middle of those levels, which is a very common level to get to if we look at Bitcoin's history.

通常来说，比如在新冠疫情时期，我们就触及了这个短期持有者支撑位。

And usually, so for example, with COVID, we reached that shorter molar floor.

但在2019年的熊市中，我们仅仅触及了那个夹层水平。

But during that twenty nineteen minutei bear, let's say, we only got to that mezzanine level.

如果不是因为新冠疫情，我们可能就会停留在夹层水平附近，然后再次小幅回升。

If it wasn't for COVID, we would have probably stayed around that mezzanine level and slightly moved up again from there.

但在熊市中，你可以看到我们可能会多次触及底部水平。

But in the bear market, you see we can hit that floor a couple of times.

实际上，我们在2022年6月就做到了这一点。

And so we did that actually in June '22.

我们也达到了那个水平。

We also reached that.

所以，这与2022年6月的情况非常相似。

So again, very similar to the June 22.

然后，我们开始回升。

And then, you know, we started moving up.

我们仍然经历了一波最终的下行，但那次仅跌至夹层水平。

We still had a final leg down that was again only to the mezzanine level.

但正如你所见，这个底部水平也大幅下移。

But as you see, like that floor level moves down also heavily.

所以我认为这张图表非常有用。

And so I think this is a very useful chart.

我认为我们现在处于夹层水平，可能在未来几个月，甚至下个月左右，会再次测试短期成本线，就像2022年6月之后那样。

I think so we're now at the mezzanine level, and I think we might have another retest in the next, you know, couple of months maybe, or in the next month or so towards that short termolar cost basis, just as we did after June 2022.

我们曾在夹层水平和短期成本线之间反复徘徊了好几次。

We kind of hovered between the mezzanine and short to molar cost basis a couple of time.

但我认为，我们很可能仍会在短期成本线处遇阻，因为这是一个关键水平，在熊市中，人们往往会在此时退出市场，即使他们原本打算继续持有投资。

But I think it's likely that we'll still reject off that short to molar cost basis because it's an interesting level and a bear market to take, you know, people are actually even then with their investments, and so it's often a reason why they get out of the market.

所以我认为，这些水平当然还会继续下移。

So I think that it's still possible to, of course, those levels will be moving down.

因此，我认为最可能的情况是：先再次测试短期成本线，然后可能再次试探夹层水平，之后再向上突破。

And so I think a retest of the shorter model cost basis, and then maybe again another tryout to the mezzanine level and then up from there.

在我看来，这是最有可能的结果。

Is the most probable outcome in my opinion.

如果你还没试过CLUB ORANGE，那现在就是时候了。

If you haven't tried out CLUB ORANGE yet, then now is the time.

每当我旅行时，CLUB ORANGE都是我寻找比特币爱好者的地方。

It's my go to place to find Bitcoiners whenever I'm traveling.

CLUB ORANGE是一款专为比特币爱好者打造的社交应用，你可以通过它找到附近的聚会和活动，以及接受比特币的商家。

CLUB ORANGE is a social app built for Bitcoiners where you can find meetups and events in your area and find merchants that are accepting Bitcoin.

上面已经有超过19,000名比特币爱好者，无论你是在家还是在旅行，它都是与全球比特币爱好者保持联系的好地方。

There are over 19,000 Bitcoiners on there, and whether you're at home or traveling, it's a great place to keep in touch with Bitcoiners from all over the world.

自从它还是Orange Pill应用时，我就一直在使用CLUB ORANGE，真的非常棒。

I've been using CLUB ORANGE since it was Orange Pill app, and it really is awesome.

所以如果你在上面，给我发个私信打个招呼吧。

So if you're on there, drop me a DM and say hi.

如果你想了解更多并下载应用，请在应用商店搜索CLUB ORANGE，或访问cluborange.org。

And if you wanna find out more and download the app, just search for CLUB ORANGE on your app store or go to cluborange.org.

如果你已经自己保管比特币，那你一定知道硬件钱包是怎么回事。

If you already self custody Bitcoin, you know the deal with hardware wallets.

复杂的设置、笨拙的界面，以及可能丢失、被盗或遗忘的助记词。

Complex setups, clumsy interfaces, and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen, or forgotten.

嗯，BITKEY 解决了这个问题。

Well, BITKEY fixes that.

BITKEY 是由 Square 和 Cash App 团队打造的多重签名硬件钱包。

BITKEY is a multisig hardware wallet built by the team behind Square and Cash App.

它将加密恢复系统和内置继承功能融入一个直观易用的钱包中，无需为助记词担忧。

It packs a cryptographic recovery system and built in inheritance feature into an intuitive, easy to use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat over.

它实现了简单而安全的自托管，且无压力，Time 将 BITKEY 列为 2024 年最佳发明之一。

It's simple, secure self custody without the stress, and time named BITKEY one of the best inventions of 2024.

在 bitkey.world 使用代码 w b d 可享受 20% 折扣。

Get 20% off at bitkey.world when you use the code w b d.

就是 bitkey.world，使用代码 w b d。

That's bitkey.world and use the code w b d.

你是否希望能在不卖出比特币的情况下获取现金？

Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin?

嗯，LEDN 让这成为可能。

Well, LEDN makes that possible.

他们是全球领先的比特币抵押贷款机构，自2018年以来，已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，且始终完美保护客户资产。

They're the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets.

使用 LEDN，你可以获得全额托管贷款，无需信用审核或月度还款，只需轻松获得美元，而无需出售一个比特币。

With LEDN, you get full custody loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT.

LEDN 仅提供比特币抵押贷款，所有抵押品均由 LEDN 或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。

LEDN exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by LEDN directly or their funding partners.

你的比特币永远不会被借出以产生利息。

Your Bitcoin's never lent out to generate interest.

我最近在 LEDN 办了一笔贷款。

I recently took out a loan with LEDN.

整个过程非常简单。

The whole process was super easy.

申请只花了我不到十五分钟，几个小时后，我就把美元到账了。

The application took me less than fifteen minutes, and in a few hours, I had the dollars in my account.

整个过程非常顺畅。

It was super smooth.

所以，如果你需要现金但不想卖出比特币，请前往 ledn.io/wbd，你的首笔贷款可享受 0.25% 的折扣。

So if you need cash but you don't wanna sell Bitcoin, head over to ledn.io/wbd, and you'll get point 25% off your first loan.

那就是 ledn.io/wbd。

That's ledn.io/wbd.

不过，你不觉得市场的这种结构会影响它的行为吗？

Do you not think that the sort of structure of the market will change the behavior of this, though?

因为，如果你回顾一下过去两次触及下轨的情况，会发现那是在疫情期间，当时只是短暂触碰后就迅速反弹，这显然是一个影响全球、冲击经济的重大事件。

Because, like, if you look back at the last two times we hit that lower band, it looks like it was COVID, and it that was a very quick touch and then straight back up, basically, which obviously a huge a huge event that have, like, affected the world globally, affected the economy.

然后我们又经历了 FTX 崩盘后的暴跌，那是一次非常具有比特币和加密货币特性的崩盘。

Then we've got the crash after FTX blew up, which was a very Bitcoin sort of crypto specific crash.

那是你不禁会想：这场危机到底有多深？

It was one of those moments where you were like, how deep does this go?

它对整个比特币市场的影响有多系统性？

How systemic to the entire Bitcoin market is this?

在某些方面，这构成了对比特币生态系统内许多企业的生存威胁。

It was, like, in in some ways, an existential threat to a lot of the businesses that ran within Bitcoin.

我们看到太多公司倒闭了。

We saw so many close down.

我认为这次情况不同，因为我们有了ETF中的被动资金流入。

Like, this time's different, I think, in the sense that we have the passive flows in the ETFs.

机构已经入场了。

Institutions are here.

我认为现在人们可能认为比特币的价值非常有吸引力。

I think people are probably looking at Bitcoin right now as being very good value.

我当然这么认为。

I certainly am.

这难道不会改变这张图表的行为吗？

Like, does that not change the behavior of this chart?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，实际上，它可能会。

So, actually, it might.

所以，正如我所说，也许由于被动资金流入这个领域，这将成为低点。

So as I said, like, maybe this will be the low since we have passive flows moving into the space.

从时间上看，我们可能仍然会在这些较低水平附近波动，但也许我们已经在最近的下跌中触及了低点，比如2月5日的下跌，类似于2022年6月。

And maybe time wise, we'll still just move around these lower levels, but maybe we already sat in the low in in in in that recent rent, the February 5 drop, like similar to June 2022.

比如，在2022年6月，如果不是因为FDX，我们可能不会出现另一轮短暂的下行。

Like, so in June, if it wasn't for FDX, we wouldn't have gotten like another lag down, you know, temporarily.

但这一次，宏观不确定性也太多了。

But this time around, there's also so much macro uncertainty.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我的意思是，如果我们现在知道，这会对全球市场产生多大的影响？

I mean, if we now the straight of foremost, like, much effect will it have on global markets?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

你知道吗，如果明年左右出现经济衰退怎么办？

You know, what we do get a recession in the next year or so?

比如，股市真的崩盘。

Like, really a crash in stock markets.

那肯定会成为一个非常糟糕的催化剂，可能导致进一步下跌，比如跌到中间水平，然后再反弹上去。

That would be definitely an awful catalyst to have, like, a potential short, another leg down, let's say, to that mezzanine level, and then go back up from there.

所以我认为，世界上有足够的不确定性，足以成为类似事件发生的催化剂。

So I think there's enough uncertainty in the world to you know, function as a catalyst for something like that to happen.

是的。

Yeah.

这很有道理。

That does make sense.

比如，如果我们看到油价重回每桶100美元以上，经济就会开始剧烈波动。

Like, if we see oil go back above a $100, the economy start really teetering.

已经到一百美元了。

It's already at a $100.

你知道的。

You know?

所以所以是

So so Is

今天回到一百美元了吗？

it back a $100 today?

我

I'm

我只是在正常工作。

I'm just working Okay.

这取决于你看的是哪个指标，但像原油这种，我觉得美国原油大约在96美元左右。

It depends on on which metric you're looking at, but some, like, crude like, I think US crude is at 96 or something.

天啊。

And so Damn.

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我的意思是，在这种情况下，我完全能理解比特币可能会进一步下跌，但我同时也认为，这会增加他们大规模印钞的可能性，至于接下来会发生什么，谁也说不准。

So, I mean, I think in that scenario, yeah, I could totally see Bitcoin going down further, but I also think it increases the chance of them just doing a mega print, and who knows what happened the next.

我

I

我的意思是，是的。

mean Yeah.

所以我想去做那件事。

So I wanna to that.

所以这在很大程度上取决于情况。

So so so that very much depends.

所以，如果特朗普能够解决这场战争，而且你知道，五月我们将会看到美联储主席的更替，我们知道将会有一轮大规模印钞，战争本身就是通胀的。

So if if Trump is able to resolve this war and, you know, in May we're gonna see changes of the Fed chair, and we know that there's gonna be, like, a brick print coming, you know, wars are inflationary.

所以，如果这场战争能在五月之前以某种方式解决，然后五月我们迎来印钞，那么也许我们确实已经见到了低点，2月5日可能是低点，之后我们开始逐渐回升，也许在中期选举前我们不会看到市场崩盘。

And so, you know, but if the war could be resolved somehow, like, before May, and then in May we get the print, you know, then maybe indeed we, you know, we sat in the low, and then maybe the February 5 was the low, and we started, like, gradually moving up, and maybe into the midterms, we won't see a market crash.

这显然是特朗普想要实现的目标。

That's obviously what Trump is trying to do.

但现在它能否奏效，我不确定，因为你知道，他没想到霍尔木兹海峡会被关闭，这就像对全球能源供应造成了一次类似新冠疫情的冲击。

Now if it's gonna work, I don't know because, you know, I I don't think he expected, you know, the the Strait Of Hormuz being closed and, you know, and that's a that's that's a COVID similar type of shock to the world's energy supply.

所以我不知道这件事最终会如何发展。

And so I I don't know how this will unpack.

是的。

Yeah.

我们希望比特币上涨，但不是以这种方式。

We wanna see Bitcoin go up, but not like this.

好的。

Alright.

我们继续下一个话题。

Let's go on to the next one.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我想我们可以聊聊我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段，因为你知道，我们正好处于四年周期之中。

So I I thought maybe we can talk a bit about where we are in the cycle since, you know, we we are exactly within the four year cycle.

所以这里展示的是四年周期，它显示了距离减半还有多少天。

So this is actually the four year cycle displayed here, and it's it showed the the days until the halving.

因此，这些周期与距离减半的天数对齐，而那些虚线代表实现价格，这是一种非常关键的链上指标。

So cycles are aligned here with the days until the halving, and dotted, those dotted lines are the realized price, which is, know, basic, like very key on chain metric.

它是所有流通中比特币的平均购买价格。

It's the average purchase price of all Bitcoin in circulation.

对吧？

Right?

这就是实现价格。

That's the the realized price.

所以如果我们把市场和这些周期的实现价格对齐，我们会发现，在熊市底部形成期间——在我看来，未来几个月内极有可能发生这种情况——价格会下跌，跌破实现价格。

And so if we so if we line the market, like, we line the realized all these cycles with the realized price, we see that during that bear market bottom formation, which, you know, in my opinion, there's a high probability of that to happen in the next couple of months, we form, we fall, we kind of like fall below that realized price.

因此，这可能会把我们带到某个水平。

And so that that could bring us to levels.

目前，实现价格大约在5.4万美元左右，接近5.5万美元。

Currently, the realized price is around 54 k or nearly 55 ks.

所以，未来几个月内，如果还有一波下跌，我们完全有可能进一步跌破5.5万美元。

So, you know, there's a big reason we could potentially drop below that, below 55 ks still with one more leg down in the next couple of months.

这确实非常依赖于宏观环境，我同意。

And so it depends very much on the macro circumstances, I agree.

我们有被动资金流入，因此我们未必非得跌到那个水平。

We have passive flows, and so we don't have to get there.

但如果你打算入场比特币，我认为最好的策略是在未来几个月内采用定投方式买入，这样或许能抓住另一波下跌的机会。

But, you know, I think if you're looking to get into Bitcoin, it's probably the best strategy is to DCA over the next couple of months into Bitcoin, and maybe you catch that another leg down.

如果你没等到，也没关系——如果我们开始上涨，而你已经处在低位，那就再好不过了。

Like, if you don't, okay, if we start moving up and we already sat in the low, great.

但确实，我认为世界上仍然存在足够的不确定性，足以让市场再经历一次下行。

But, yeah, I think there's still enough uncertainty in the world for for one more leg down to happen.

看这张图表中我想质疑的地方，我愿意大胆预测一下，这可能会像牛奶一样过期，但这张图暗示我们还有一整年的时间会横盘下行，我实在无法相信这种情况会发生。

See, the thing in this chart that I would fade, and I'm willing to put myself out on a limb here and this could age like milk, but this would suggest that we have another year of sort of sideways down, and I just can't see that happening.

我可能完全错了，但我真的看不到这种情况会发生。

I could be totally wrong, but I can't see that happening.

我的直觉告诉我，这不会发生。

My gut doesn't say that's what's gonna happen.

要真正形成底部，最多只需要六个月的震荡调整，然后就开始复苏，顺便说一句，这已经是牛市的开端了。

So so to really form the bottom would only take, like, give and take, six months at most, And then indeed, to kinda start the recovery, which would already be the beginning of a bull market, by the way.

所以，如果我们要回到之前讨论的那个点，我有没有那张图表？

So so if we I mean, going back to do I have a chart on that?

所以回到那个问题上

So going back to that

那么，你认为牛市是从我们触达最低点的那天开始的吗？

So do you consider the bull market starting the day we hit the lowest print?

是的

Yeah.

所以，我的意思是，我们看这个的时候，如果观察牛市趋势，我们也应该从熊市底部开始计数。

So so, I mean, I mean, this is what we look at, like, if we if we if we look at the bull trend, then we also start counting from the bear market bottom.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你在熊市底部附近入场，就会迎来一个三年的上升趋势，一个指数级的上涨趋势。

So if you get in around that bear market bottom, you have a three year trend, like a three year uptrend, an exponential uptrend.

因此，从某种意义上说，在接下来的六个月里，甚至可能只有四个月或三个月，你知道，也许在五月之前，当低点出现时。

And so in a way, in the next six months, and it could also maybe it will be only be four or three, you know, maybe in May, before, like, when the print is gonna happen.

你知道，所以我认为，一旦我们在接下来几个月内确立了低点，然后开始上涨，从某种意义上讲，这已经可以被视为新一轮牛市的开始。

You know, like, so But I think if we once we set in the low in the next couple of months, and then we start moving up, then in a way, you could look at that already as the start of a new bull market.

尽管你其实还不能确定我们是否已经进入牛市。

Although you don't really know if we're in a bull market yet.

我的意思是，我们真的需要上涨，突破那个短期成本线，回踩确认，然后真正稳定地站上去。

I mean, we really have to move up, like, above that short term lower cost basis, get a retest, and actually, you know, stay above it.

这将再次确认牛市趋势的开始。

That would be, like, a confirmation of the start of a bull bullish trend again.

所以，这就是我在未来几个月里关注的重点。

And so so that's what I'm looking for in the next couple of months.

但确实，这意味着我们可能会有更长时间的横盘整理，可能长达一年，因为如果我们在未来三个月内跌至50，然后再次上涨，到八九个月甚至十到十二个月后，价格可能会在八九十左右。

But indeed, that means that we got a bit more, like, sideways price action for potentially a year because we I mean, if we drop to 50 still in in the next three months, and then we start moving again up, and we'll be around, you know, maybe eighties, nineties in in in eight or nine months or or or maybe ten or twelve months even.

是的。

Yeah.

这看起来会非常类似于之前的周期，我认为这是一个现实的结果。

That that would look very similar to previous cycles, and I I think that's a realistic outcome.

我会押注这一次。

I I would take the bet on this one.

如果两年后我们再看这张图表，我认为我们会说，这次可能真的不一样了，但这也可能是自我安慰。

The next next in let's say in two years' time, if we were to look at this chart, I think we will look at this saying this time actually might have been different, but this could be pure cope.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我同意。

I mean, I agree.

你知道，随着商业周期的变化，正如我所说，商业周期实际上正走出衰退状态。

There's there's I you know, with the business cycle changing, and as I said, the business cycle is actually coming out of a recessionary state.

但没错，也许目前正在进行的这些动态——比如贸易摩擦的缓解和能源供应冲击——

But but, yeah, maybe all these dynamics that are currently going on with the trade off from was closed and the supply, energy supply shock.

它可能因为某种原因再次回落。

It could, it maybe it moves again back below for some reason.

我不知道。

I don't know.

不过，确实可能会有一个更长的周期。

I, although, yeah, there could be an extended cycle.

所以也许我们只会经历一个温和的熊市。

So maybe we'll only get a mild bear market.

正如我所说，我们确实也有被动资金流入，但对我来说，最有可能的情况仍然是继续遵循四年周期的路径。

As I said, we do also have passive flows, but for me, I mean, the highest probability is to still continue the four year cycle path.

原因在于，炒作已经从市场中消失了。

The reason being at most because hype is out of the market.

炒作集中在人工智能，炒作集中在黄金，但并不在比特币上。

Hype is in AI, hype is in gold, hype is not really in Bitcoin.

然后世界上还有各种冲突。

Then there's all this conflict in the world.

因此，你知道，比特币的耐心将在未来几个月接受考验。

And then so, you know, Bitcoin's patience will be tested over the next couple of months.

有些人会稍微失去信心，比如：也许比特币没什么前景。

And some will lose faith a bit, like, okay, maybe Bitcoin is not going anywhere.

如果你再看到两个月的横盘价格走势，我认为有些人会失去耐心，他们想追逐利润，于是可能又转向人工智能，就像很多人已经做的那样。所以，如果出现图表中描绘的这种情景，我并不会感到太惊讶。

You know, if we still have another two months of sideways price action, I think, you know, some people will be impatient and and, you know, they they wanna chase profits, and so they maybe they they also flip to AI again, like many already did, but so so I I I wouldn't be too surprised if we if we got such a scenario which is portrayed here in the chart.

嗯。

Mhmm.

说得通。

Fair enough.

好的。

Okay.

我们继续下一个吧。

Let's go on to the next one.

你听起来对这个不太高兴。

Don't sound happy about that one.

所以，是的，我并不对此感到不快。

So, yeah, I'm just I I'm not unhappy about it.

我只是觉得这里面有很多动态因素，我不确定是否完全认同这个前提。

I just there's a lot of dynamics in there that I I don't know if I totally agree with the premise on.

比如，我认为我确实同意我们显然没有出现狂热，但我怀疑现在是否有人在关注黄金价格超过5000美元。

Like, I think I I do agree that we've obviously we've not had the hype, but I wonder if there's people now looking at gold being over $5,000.

你知道，你之前展示过那个指标，RSI已经高达九十多。

You know, you showed that indicator before the RSI is way up there in the nineties.

比如说，这些资金中有一部分会不会觉得黄金在某个时候已经见顶了，哪怕只是短期的，然后部分资金开始回流到比特币？

Like, does some of that money you know, does it feel like gold's topping at some point even if it's only short term, and does some of that money start rolling back into Bitcoin?

我认为还有很多其他因素可以分析，可能会指向别的结论。

I think there's a lot of dynamics that you could look at that might suggest something else.

是的，我同意。

Yeah, I agree.

所以，确实，如果我们

So, indeed, it is true that if we

看看任何东西，比如你愿意把钱投到哪里，黄金严重高估，股市也严重高估，但比特币在这个价位非常有吸引力。

look at anything, like where would you want to put money, gold is heavily overvalued, the stock market is heavily overvalued, but Bitcoin is very attractive at these prices.

所以现在我不知道究竟有多少资金在追逐这种有吸引力的投资，因为这也感觉有风险。

And so now I don't know how much money necessarily is now chasing this attractive investment, because it also feels risky.

我们曾面临一些量子威胁。

We had some of the quantum threats.

总有一些不确定性，而且还有这么多冲突，而黄金的表现实际上非常好。

There's just some uncertainty, you know, and then we have all this conflict, and then gold is actually performing very well.

比特币不是。

Bitcoin is not.

所以，有点信心丧失，比特币真的能实现它的目标吗？

And so so a bit of loss of confidence, oh, is Bitcoin really gonna do what it's gonna do?

但如果你仔细看基本面，比特币实际上正在完全实现它的目标。

But if you really look at the fundamentals, Bitcoin is actually exactly doing what it's going to do.

因此，我实际上对比特币非常乐观。

And so, I'm super optimistic actually about Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

比如，好吧，我对接下来的几个月持悲观态度。

Like, okay, I'm pessimistic about the next couple of months.

我甚至觉得我们不一定非得把那个滞后时间缩短。

I I even think we don't necessarily have to get that lag down.

正如我所说，有被动资金流入，所以也许我们不需要。

As I said, there's passive flows, so maybe we don't.

而且，商业周期之所以有所延长，也有这个原因。

And also the reason the business cycle it has a bit of is extending.

也许这也会对比特币产生影响，使其提前触底，或者这已经是最底部了，我们正逐步回升。

Maybe that also will have an impact on Bitcoin and will bottom early, or this was already the bottom and we started gradually moving up.

但如果我们观察链上图表，比如这一张，就会发现它与以往的熊市非常相似。

But if we look at the on chain charts, and for example, in this one, we see such a similarity to previous bear markets.

你看，这些红线代表的是短期利润的规模，这里显示的就是。

You know, we see these red lines, like the amount of short model profits, which is shown here.

你知道，这一点很难忽视。

You know, we it's it's hard to neglect.

它看起来完全就像一个典型的熊市。

Like, it looks exactly like a bear market would.

因此，对我来说，不幸的是，最可能的情况是，它将继续像过去熊市通常表现的那样发展。

And and so, for me, unfortunately, also then the probability is the highest that will continue exactly as how a bear market usually has functioned in the past.

是的，这听起来不太吸引人，但我认为这也是一个巨大的机会，因为我们接下来还有几个月可以抄到极其便宜的比特币，而比特币最终会再次反转。

And, yeah, it doesn't sound that attractive, but I think it's also a big opportunity because, you know, we basically have another few months of checking extremely cheap SADs, and Bitcoin will turn around again.

我的意思是，比特币不会归零。

I mean, Bitcoin is not going to zero.

它实际上是人类更美好未来乃至与人工智能和平共处的唯一希望。

It's literally the only hope we have on a better future for humanity and to even live in peace with AI and to be all, you know.

所以我认为比特币已经被严重低估了。

And and so I think it's it's it's so it's it's Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued.

在我看来，比特币的价值远超20万美元，甚至可能达到数百万美元。

In my my opinion, Bitcoin is worth, you know, much more than 200 k and and and and probably will go into the millions.

但我们需要度过这个阶段。

But yeah, we have to move through this phase.

我的意思是，炒作已经消退了。

I mean, hype is gone.

每个周期我们都会看到这种情况。

We have seen this every cycle.

比特币必须形成底部。

Bitcoin has to form a bottom.

这需要时间。

That takes time.

这其中有个时间因素。

There's a time factor to this.

所以这会花上几个月的时间。

So it will take a couple of months.

但这些月份也同样是机会。

And but but, yeah, those months are an opportunity as well.

完全正确。

Totally.

我认为我可能在某一点上和你有不同看法，不过我要说明一下，你是在依据具体日期来判断。

And I think the place where I I might have some disagreement with you, and to caveat this, you're going off dates here.

我是凭感觉来判断的。

I'm going off vibes.

而且我一向极度看涨。

And I'm also always ultra bullish.

我的意思是，很明显我们现在处于熊市。

Is I like, it's clear we're in a bear market.

这一点无可否认。

No denying that.

这太明显了。

We we it's just obvious.

但我不确定的是，为什么它必须与这种周期理论中的以往熊市完全一致。

But what I'm unsure of is why it has to necessarily rhyme with previous bear markets in this sort of cycle theory.

因为减半的影响比过去大得多，我真的不明白这一年中的几个月究竟凭什么决定了比特币必须下跌或上涨。

Like, I I because the halving impact is so much more than it has been in the past, I just don't know what it is about the sort of months of the year that may that mean that Bitcoin has to go down or up.

我想这就是我的观点。

I guess that's where I'm coming from.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我们确实看到了这一点，我的意思是，回到这些周期上。

And and we saw this, I mean, getting back to the the cycles.

我的意思是，自从比特币诞生以来，它一直呈现出四年周期的走势。

I mean, since the start of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has moved in this four year cyclical pattern.

当然，早期减半的影响非常巨大，但到了现在，这种影响已经微不足道了。

And of course, in the beginning, the having impact had a huge impact, and that is indeed negligible at this point in time.

但在那之前，我们其实也经历过八年周期。

But before, know, before we had also an eight year cycle.

比如，如果我们回顾2008年的崩盘，那次正是一个八年周期的体现。

So for example, if we look at, you know, at the the the 2008 crash, for that to happen, that was an eight year cycle.

因此，我不会排除这次也可能出现延长周期的可能性。

And so I wouldn't necessarily rule out that that maybe we get an extended cycle this time as well.

当然，这些四年周期受到总统任期周期的影响，而总统任期正好是四年一届。

Of course, these four year cycles are influenced by presidential cycles, which are, you know, based on the four year period.

是的。

And Yeah.

所有这些因素都会对市场产生影响。

So all those dynamics have an effect on the market.

因此，我也完全开放接受这种周期可能发生改变。

And so I'm also totally open to for the cycle to change.

所以，我不是说我们接下来一定会继续维持四年周期。

So I'm not saying we will stay within the four year cycle for the next, you know, we will have that.

我不是说比特币未来还会再经历两个四年周期。

I'm not saying we will have two more four year cycles in Bitcoin coming up.

我只是说，目前我们仍然正好处于这个四年周期的模式中。

So I'm just saying currently, we're still exactly in that four year cycle pattern.

因此，也许未来这种模式会发生变化。

And so, you know, maybe that will change into the future.

就像我说的，比如今年出现历史新高，这可能会否定或证明我们正在偏离这个周期，但目前还没有这样的证据。

Like, as I said, for example, an all time high this year would kind of disprove or would prove that we would be moving away from it, But currently there's no such proof yet.

因此，我们不得不假设它会继续下去。

And so, so we have to kind of assume that it will continue.

现在，有一些指标，比如商业周期，也许会成为我们这次偏离这一模式的理由。

Now, there are some indicators like the business cycle, which, you know, maybe our reason indeed to move away from that this time around.

但到目前为止，比特币还没有显示出这些交易的迹象。

But yeah, so far Bitcoin is not showing any of those trades yet.

我们实际上正处于熊市低点，每个周期大约在中期选举前后都会出现这种情况。

We're actually at bear market lows, which we have, you know, every cycle around that midterms midterms here.

但我认为未来也有可能出现八年周期。

But I also think an eight year cycle is possible into the future.

当然，市场动态确实在发生变化。

Know, dynamics are definitely changing.

感觉现在世界上发生了太多事情，尤其是特朗普上台了，也许市场的动态会发生变化并被拉长。

It feels like so much is going on in the world with Trump now, and so maybe the dynamics of markets will change and will be extended.

是的，有道理。

Yeah, fair enough.

对。

Yeah.

那意味着熊市的跌幅会稍微小一点。

That would just mean, like, a a a bit more reduced bear market.

就像我说的，也许低点已经过去了，我们可以从这里开始逐步回升。

Like, maybe then the low is in, as I said, and we could kinda start gradually moving up from here.

所以我认为这是完全有可能的。

So I think that's that's entirely possible.

有道理。

Fair.

恐怕只能交给时间来验证了。

And only time will tell, I guess.

好的。

Okay.

下一张图表。

Next chart.

接下来我们看什么？

What have we got next?

这些是

These are

和正常的Root有点不同。

a little different to normal Root.

我很享受这个过程。

I'm enjoying it.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Great.

太好了。

Great.

我们还没看到螺旋图。

We've not had the spiral yet.

没有。

No.

我还没加入螺旋图，但你是想看看螺旋图吗？

I didn't include a spiral chart yet, but I mean I mean, you wanna look at a spiral?

我可以打开一个，如果你想要的话，但这些图表本身也很棒。

I can open I can open one if you want, but it these these are great charts as well.

它们反映了比特币的周期性行为。

They they represent the cyclical behavior in Bitcoin.

例如，我们现在看的是链上价值图，在我看来非常有趣。

For example, here we are looking at the on chain value map, this is very interesting in my opinion.

所以我们并没有真正达到那些严重的高估水平，就像这里顶部的红线和红色区域所示。

So we didn't really reach those heavy overvalue levels, which you see here, like the red line in the top, the red band.

因此，也许我们也达不到那些严重的低估水平。

And so maybe also we won't reach those heavy undervalued levels.

而在这里，我们再次看到，还有进一步下跌的空间。

And here again, we see there is still room for another leg down.

所以，这又是另一个理由，让我认为我们不能排除还会再有一轮下跌。

And then, so that's what, again, another reason why I say, okay, we cannot necessarily rule out that we'll have another leg down.

但我认为，如果真的发生，那也将是最后一击。

But I think if we do, that will also be kind of the final nail in the coffin.

然后我们从这里开始上涨。

And then we kind of move up from here.

所以我们基本上有六个月的时间来做这件事。

And so basically we have six months to do to do just that.

现在，由于被动资金流入，这种情况可能不会再出现。

Now maybe it doesn't come again because of passive flows.

我其实希望它不会发生。

I I actually hope it won't.

那会很棒。

It would be great.

这对未来也会令人兴奋。

That would be exciting for the future as well.

比特币正在发生变化。

Bitcoin is changing.

但如果我们真的这样做了，它看起来非常类似于历史模式。

But if we do, it feels very much similar to historic patterns.

所以

So

尽管我非常希望比特币上涨，但我还是会抓住机会买入45000美元的比特币。

As much as I wanna see Bitcoin go up, I'd take the opportunity to buy 45 k Bitcoin.

我我

I I

所以，这实际上也是我可能会把部分资金重新投入的水平。

so this is actually the level that I also probably will move some funds back in.

这价格实在太低了，不可能放着不管。

It will just be too cheap to to leave.

我的意思是，这就像一次新冠疫情带来的机会。

I mean, it's like a COVID opportunity.

你知道的吗？

You know?

我们当时确实看到新冠疫情导致价格跌到了严重低估的水平。

Like, we we literally saw here COVID dropping to the heavy undervalue levels.

我的意思是，在这种水平上买入实在太有吸引力了。

I mean, it it becomes too attractive to buy at such levels.

所以我也认为，如果我们真的跌到那个水平，我也会成为买家。

So so I also I think, yeah, if it would if we would drop there, I would become a buyer as well.

是的。

Yeah.

COVID期间的那次买入是我最自豪的交易，因为那真是一个令人恐惧的时期。

The COVID diff is my proudest buy, I think, because that's that was a a terrifying time.

如果我们再看到类似的情况，我一定会把能卖的全都卖了。

I I if we saw anything like that ever again, I'm just gonna be selling everything I possibly can.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

而目前，我们正经历一些类似新冠时期的状况，比如现在的能源供应冲击。

And currently, we're we're having a bit of issues similar to COVID, like, with now, for example, the energy supply shock.

全球20%的能源正从我们这里流向更远的地方。

20% of world's energy is going to the straighter from us.

所以，这你知道，我不确定。

So that that is, you know, I I don't know.

到目前为止，情况并没有像那样，价格一直在上涨并保持稳定。

So far, it hasn't been like, has been moving up and been stable.

但是，我不确定。

But, yeah, I I I don't know.

我们会看到这场冲突在未来几个月如何发展。

I will we'll we'll see how this conflict will evolve over the next couple of months.

是的。

Yeah.

这就像有人卖给你椅子让你去买比特币的机会。

That's to sell you chairs to buy Bitcoin kind of opportunity.

很棒。

Cool.

说实话，有趣的是，这场熊市在情感上对我的影响最小？

This I I mean, the the funny thing is, like, this this is the bear market that has least affected me sort of in an emotional sense?

这可能是因为我之前经历过类似的情况，但我们现在谈论的涨跌幅百分比已经毫无意义了。

And that just could be that I've been through these before, but, you know, the the numbers we talk about in terms of percentage up, percentage down are just they're a joke now.

你知道的吧？

You know?

那80%的回撤去哪儿了？

Where's the 80% drawdown gone?

这根本不算什么。

This is nothing.

是的。

Yeah.

甚至不太可能出现70%的回撤。

It's very unlikely to get to a 70% drawdown even.

我已经把这一点分享给了我的粉丝。

And I've showed I've shared that with my followers.

我分享了一些图表，然后我们实际查看了可能达到的回撤水平。

I've shared some charts, and then we actually looked at drawdowns and, you know, levels that will likely would get to.

实际上，在接下来的几张图表中，我们会谈到一些这些水平。

And, actually, we will we'll get to some of those levels in in the next couple of charts.

我其实制作了一些图表，专门用来观察底部形态究竟是什么样的。

I would I actually made some charts to to look really at how what that bottom formation looks like.

然后，我再说一遍，我们不一定非得达到那个水平，但我觉得假设我们可能会到达那里是有好处的，如果没到，那只会更好。

And then, again, I'm I'm saying that, like, we don't have to get there, but this is kinda I think it's a good thing to kinda assume that we might get there, and if we don't, you know, it will only be good.

但确实，我认为70%的回撤可能性非常低。

But, yeah, I think a 70% drawdown is very unlikely.

我们有一些链上水平，这当然也与我们没有出现顶部爆破有关，因为我们的顶部分布非常分散，甚至都没达到那些严重高估的水平。

We have some on chain levels, and this has to do also, of course, because we didn't have a blow of top, you know, because we had such a distributed top, we didn't even reach those heavy overvalued levels.

因此，作为结果，回撤的百分比也比较温和。

So also, you know, as a consequence, the draw, the percentage drawdown is mild.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为我们忽略了一点，你知道，你谈到了黄金和人工智能股票中的散户追涨情绪，但还有国债公司。

I think the thing we've missed in this is that, you know, you you spoke about all the retail FOMO in gold and in AI stocks, but, like, also treasury companies.

很多人只是追涨国债公司，而以前他们可能会买比特币。

Like, so many people were just FOMO ing treasury companies, whereas previously they might have bought Bitcoin.

我认为这确实对上涨造成了抑制作用。

I think that definitely had a dampening effect on the upside.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到的这一点非常好。

That's actually a great point that you mentioned.

我最近也向我的粉丝们解释过这一点。

So I actually recently explained that as well with my followers.

所以，也许我们可以谈谈这个牛市与以往周期的不同之处。

So there's there's the the this was So maybe we can talk about the differences from this bull market to previous cycles.

我们看到了大量逐步的机构采用，因此，与之前资金流入现货交易所从而影响现货价格不同，这次资金实际上流向了国债公司等地方。

So we saw a lot of gradual institutional adoption, and so instead of some of that money flowing to spot exchanges, like to have an effect on spot price, we actually saw money flowing to in the treasury companies, for example.

然后我们看到了迈克尔·塞拉的买入，但这些买入很可能都是通过场外交易柜台进行的。

And then we had buys from Saylor, but those buys are like most likely through OTC desks.

所以他们尽量减少对价格的冲击。

And so they try to kind of like have a minimum impact on price.

你知道，我们该怎么获取比特币呢？

You know, like how can we acquire Bitcoin?

而且，如果你开始大量买入现货比特币，比如买上一万七千枚之类的，一旦在现货市场下单，就会暂时对现货价格造成巨大影响。

And and, you know, because if you if you start, like, buying spot Bitcoin, like 17,000 Bitcoin or something, whatever, you know, if you buy that spot, it will have, like, a huge impact temporarily on spot price.

所以如果你这样买入，其实是在自损，因此你更希望进行场外交易，而这正是ETF在实物赎回时的做法，同时也是 treasury 公司的做法。

So you screw yourself, right, if you're buying, like, so So you want to make these deals OTC, and this is actually what ETFs do, with in kind of redemptions, and also, you know, treasury companies.

因此，随着机构资金逐步流入比特币，这也意味着许多比特币都是通过场外交易购入的。

And so a way, so with this gradual institutional, like gradual money flowing into Bitcoin through institutions, also means indeed that many of those Bitcoins were bought OTC.

现在还有一些元老持有成千上万枚比特币，他们愿意锁定部分利润，确实，他们通常通过这些场外交易柜台出售。

And so there are OGs out there with thousands of Bitcoin, and they're happy to stake some profit, but yes, and they sell often through these OTC desks.

所以在这一轮周期中，这种做法对现货价格的影响可能是最小的，这一点我们也确实看到了。

And so this was probably you know, in this cycle, the least impactful on spot price, and we also see that.

我的意思是，我们当时的价格分布非常分散，价格走势也很分散。

I mean, we had a very distributed price, very distributed price action.

我们没有像2017年那样出现那种由炒作、散户情绪和现货市场驱动的行情。

We we, you know, nothing of the like that we saw in 2017, which was very hype driven, retail hype driven, very spot driven market.

这个市场的现货驱动程度低得多。

This market was much less spot driven.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你在现货市场买入，就会开始平掉空头头寸，然后价格出现剧烈波动，比特币也需要确认它是否能真正维持这个价格。

And I guess if you're buying on the spot markets, then you start, like, liquidating shorts, and then you have the volatile moves up and, you know, Bitcoin has to figure out if it can actually sustain the price.

所以，你意思是，正是由于OTC柜台的存在，这种波动才从市场中消失了，对吧？

And so, like, that volatility was all taken out of the market because of the OTC desk is what you're saying, I think.

对。

Yeah.

因此，许多原本会对比特币价格产生更大影响的现货交易行为，现在因为ETF和 treasury 公司的OTC买入而减少了，而ETF正是这一轮牛市的关键推动力之一。

So a lot of that spot action, which indeed has much more effect on Bitcoin's price, was now reduced because of indeed OTC buys by ETFs, and ETFs were one of the key drivers and treasury companies, you know, of this bull market.

因此，我也认为，我们确实看到了上行价格走势的减弱。

And so so I I think, therefore, also, we have seen such reduced price action, like, to the upside.

嗯。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

好的。

Alright.

你还有什么别的吗

What else have you

要告诉我们吗，Root？

got for us, Root?

对。

Yeah.

也许我们可以深入探讨一下这个底部形态。

Maybe we can go a bit into that bottom formation.

所以我们已经看过这张图表了。

So so we already looked at this chart.

所以这基本上是在将当前的下跌与2022年6月的下跌进行比较。

So this is basically comparing the current drop, like, to the June 2022 drop.

因此，我们在这里实际上会结合一些我之前介绍过的关键链上指标。

And so what we look at here, actually, we're gonna start combining some of these key on chain metrics that I already introduced.

所以这里我们关注的是短期持有者支撑位，也就是基于短期持有者成本价的这个水平。

So we will here, we're looking at the short term holder floor, which is actually, you know, this level of that short term holders, based on the short term holder cost basis.

那么，短期持有者能承受的最大亏损是多少呢？

So, how much of a loss, like what is the maximum loss that short term holders can sustain, basically?

这就是短期持有者支撑位的水平。

That's the short term holder floor level.

然后我们还有实现价格，也就是所有比特币的平均购买价格。

Then we have the realized price, which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin.

我们现在看到短期持有者地板价跌破了实现价格。

We just now have the cross of the short term holder floor falling below that realized price.

如果我们回顾历史上这种情况发生的时间，那大约是在2022年6月。

If we look where that historically happens, you know, that was around June 2022.

因此，从资本化角度来看，当前的下跌与那时非常相似。

So we're like very much the current drop in terms of capitalization.

如果我们从比特币的资本化角度出发，并与以往的熊市进行比较，它看起来非常像2022年6月的那次事件。

So if we look at capitalization in Bitcoin terms and compare that to previous bear markets, it very much looks like this June 22 event.

如果我们观察短期持有者地板价与实现价格的关系，它也与2022年6月的事件非常相似。

If we look at the shorter molar floor versus realized price, it very much looked like the June 22 event.

然后我们可以引入一些更多的指标。

And then we can introduce actually some more metrics.

在这里，这是链上价值图的低点。

Here, this is actually the low of the on chain value map.

链上价值图的低点基于我自定义的一种代币价值天数销毁的实现方式，这个指标最初是由我提出的，但它在确定整个市场的底部方面一直非常准确。

The on chain value maps low is based on one of my custom implementations of coin value days destroyed, which was originally metric that really came up with, but it has been very accurate in actually setting like a floor for the entire market.

这个指标的有趣之处在于它从不下降。

And the interesting thing about this metric is that it never moves down.

我们之前看的短期筹码支撑位，那些区间是上下波动的，但这个币值销毁水平只会上升。

So where we looked at short molar floor, that, you know, those bands, they move up and down, but this coin value, there's destroy level only moves up.

因此，它设定了底部，目前我认为也接近45左右。

And so, so, so that sets the floor and that's currently, I think around nearly at 45 as well.

所以在未来几个月里，它会持续向上移动。

And so that will keep on moving up towards, like, in the next couple of months.

因此，很可能这些四十几的高位仍在范围内，但我认为我们不太可能再跌得更低。

And so it's very likely that maybe, like, these these high forties are still within the cards, but I don't think we'll move much lower.

正如我再次提到的，重复一下，这些被动资金流可能是我们根本不会触及那个水平的关键原因。

And then, as I said again, you know, falling in repetition here, but these passive flows, you know, might be a key reason why we won't even get there.

但我们仍然必须假设，这种情况是有可能发生的。

But we still have to assume that we might, you know?

市场上存在这种可能性。

There's this probability out there.

所以，我实际上将我们当前所处的时期定义为底部形成阶段。

So, then, so what I actually defined is period that we're currently in is the bottom formation.

因此，这些红色条形标示出了这一阶段。

So, are highlighted here by those red bars.

这实际上是当实现价格在 realized price 和短期订单地板与比特币验证的 Troy 水平之间波动的时候。

So, this is actually when the realized price moves in between or when the short term order floor moves in between the realized price and those coin validated Troy levels.

因为我们会看到，短期订单地板会比比特币更低，因为比特币最终会开始向短期持有者成本线靠近，并试图重新回升至该线之上，进入牛市区域。

Because we see that that we we we actually the the the short term order floor moves lower than Bitcoin eventually will because Bitcoin starts moving start actually moving towards that short term holder cost basis again and tries to get back above it in bull territory.

但这条带状区域仍然会跌得更低。

But the band still, they move much lower.

因此，短期摩尔地板是一个很好的参考水平，可以判断我们现在处于严重低估的区间。

And so the short molar floor is a great level to see like, okay, we're currently at heavy undervalue levels.

比如在新冠疫情期间，我们就曾跌至这个短期摩尔地板。

Like we saw with COVID, for example, we dropped to that short molar floor.

实际上，你绝对不应该在这个水平买入。

That's a level that you absolutely don't want to buy at actually.

这是比特币的短期底部，但熊市的最终底部可能更低，历史上曾达到过币值天销毁的水平，我们在本图中也能看到。

It's a short term floor Bitcoin, but the eventual floor of the bear market might be lower and historically has reached levels of coin value days destroyed, which we see here in this chart as well.

因此，我们目前正处于短期底部在实现价格与币值天销毁水平之间移动的阶段。

So we're currently at the stage where the short molar floor moved between the realized price and that coin values days destroy level.

对我来说，这就是底部形成期。

And for me, that is the period of bottom formation.

历史上我们看到，是的，这需要几个月的时间。

Now, historically we see that like, yeah, that takes a couple of months.

我们目前基本上处于2月5日下跌后的第一个月。

And and so, know, we're we're we're in we're now month one month in, basically, since the February 5 drop.

因此，我们还需要几个月才能完成这个底部形成阶段，然后才可能回升。

And and so we still have a couple of more months to to, you know, be in this bottom formation stage before we kind of move back up.

现在是抓住机会买入便宜sat的时候了。

It's time to take the opportunity to get some cheap sats.

谁知道会不会更低，但现在的价值已经很不错了。

Who knows if he'll go lower, but this is good value right now.

Root，没有螺旋图我们没法做这个节目。

Root, we can't do a a show with you without the spiral chart.

来吧。

Come on.

让我们看看。

Let's see it.

好的。

Alright.

让我

Let let me

那个图现在破了吗？

Like, has that chart broken now?

不是说这些圆圈一直在扩大吗？我们现在是不是已经跨过去了？

Because wasn't the idea that the circles were ever expanding, and have we now crossed?

我们还没有跨过去，而且我认为在未来一年半内也不会跨过去。

We have not crossed, and I also don't think we will cross in the next year and a half.

我认为交叉的可能性非常非常低。

I think the chances of crossing are very, very low.

哦，好吧。

Oh, okay.

我们需要看看这个图表。

Let's we need to see this chart.

好的。

Okay.

我调出来了。

I got it up.

顺便说一下，这是三维版本。

So this is the three d version, by the way.

这实际上是基于链上价值地图的。

And so this is actually based on on the on chain value map.

现在看不出我们在哪里。

Can't tell where we are now.

我们现在在哪？

Where are we now?

我们现在在这里。

We're currently here.

啊，好的。

Ah, okay.

哦，我看到这个还没有完全更新。

Oh, I see this one is not completely updated.

我不知道为什么它停在这里。

Don't I know why it stops here.

所以我们得往下走

So, we'd have to go down

到那里。

to that.

合理的数量。

Reasonable amount.

我们现在实际上处于那个表面水平之下。

We're actually now below that surface level.

所以，我们已经移至了下方。

So, so, we're we're we're we moved below.

这个表面其实就是我们刚刚看到的公允价值。

The surface is actually the fair value that we just looked at.

如果我们看价值图，那个绿色层级始终是比特币的公允价格，这就是这里表面所代表的内容。

The the if we looked at the at the value map, that that green level was always the the fair value price of Bitcoin, that is what the surface represents here.

然后我们经历了牛市阶段，也就是整个牛市期间，我们都处于那个表面水平之上，而现在我们又回到了表面之下。

And then we have periods of bull markets, which is, you know, this the the entire bull market, we were above that surface level, and now we move back below the surface.

但从这里开始，我们还得往下走很远，那些圆圈才会相交。

But we'd still have to go a long way down from here for those circles to cross.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，从历史来看，我们通常在年底看到这种情况，不过这次可能会稍早一些，因为这个螺旋中的一个完整周期代表四年的时间。

So so, historically, we see towards the end of the year, that would be, and this could be slightly earlier because we see that that because one one full rotation in that spiral is represents the period of four years.

所以我们看到了这些低点。

And so so we see those bottoms.

比如，2018年12月出现了低点，当时价格大约是3000美元。

So for example, this was the the 2018 bottom that happened in in December, you know, the price of 3 k.

然后2022年又出现了一次低点，大约在16000美元左右。

Then we had here the 2022 bottom, like 16 k, let's say.

是的，没错。

It was yeah.

那是在11月。

That was in November.

所以，也许这次在10月，我们会迎来一个低点，正如这个螺旋图所暗示的那样。

And so, like, maybe now this time in October, we'll get a bottom that, you know, the the the spiral chart would actually imply that.

而且，我们现在确实已经跌破了这个表面水平。

And so we we we now moved below the surface already.

我不确定为什么这个数据还没有更新。

I'm not sure why this is not updated.

我需要 actually 检查一下。

I need to check, actually.

我得去研究一下这个。

And I'll need to look into that.

但我们现在已经低于那个水平面了。

But we're now below that surface level.

我们知道，目前的价格已经低于公允价值。

We know we are below fair value.

所以我们现在实际上已经过了几个月，因为这个图表正好停在2025年，我看到了。

And so we're actually a couple months because this is exactly I mean, this one stops here at the 2025, I see.

但我们现在已经进入了三个月。

But we're currently already three months in.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我们现在已经在那个水平面之下三个月了。

So we're three months already below that surface now level now.

所以我们仍然有几个月的时间来形成底部，这就是四年周期会呈现的样子。

And and so we still have a couple of months to form that bottom, and this is the this is the four what the four year cycle would look like.

你知道吗？

You know?

是的，我的意思是，我们确实没有出现泡沫顶峰，而是经历了一个较为分散的牛市，但看看这一阶段所有这些绿色点与之前周期的相似程度。

And and, yeah, I mean, so so, yes, we didn't get to we didn't have a blow off top, and we had a bit of, like, a distributed bull market, but look at how similar those those green dots were during this whole phase here compared to previous cycles that we that we did that.

你知道，现在这里看起来非常相似。

You know, that looks very similar now here.

这里是减半事件，而这是减半前的最终高点，你知道，就是ETF获批的时候。

Here was the the halving, and this was actually the ultimate high before the halving, you know, the the ETF approval.

那引发了大量炒作，这是本轮周期的一个关键不同之处。

That was like a lot of hype, that was the first that was a a key difference this cycle.

我们在减半前就达到了最高点，但当时有一个明确的催化剂，一个我们如此上涨的重要原因。

We had an ultima high before the halving, but there was a clear catalyst, you know, big reason why we did.

所以我觉得这是正常的。

And so I think that's that's normal.

所以这是减半事件。

So this this was the the halving.

因此，接下来我们已经低于那个水平面了。

And so so, yeah, what's next is we we are now below that surface levels.

我们会在某个时候形成底部。

We form a bottom at some point.

可能是二月的低点，但那样的话，那个红点就会在这里，从四年周期的角度来看，这仍然有点早。

It could be the February low, but then that red dot would be here, which is kinda still early on the four year cycle basis.

更有可能发生在未来几个月，所以可能会再有一波下跌，然后开始回升，进入下一个减半周期。

It's more likely to happen in the next couple of months, so potentially another leg down, and then start moving back up and, you know, go to the next halving event.

螺旋图仍然有效。

The spiral chart is intact.

螺旋图仍然有效。

The spiral chart is intact.

是的。

Yeah.

Root，这真是太棒了。

Root, this has been amazing.

在我们结束之前，你还有什么想和我们讨论的吗？

Anything else you wanna go through with us before we close everything out?

没有。

No.

一切总是关于概率，所以我不会声称自己知道未来会发生什么。

Everything is always about probabilities, and so I don't claim to know what the future holds.

我们走着瞧吧。

We will see.

也许这次不一样。

Maybe this time is different.

我对所有这些情景都持开放态度，但很明显，我们现在处于熊市。

I'm open to all these scenarios, but but it is clear that we are in a bear market.

很明显，我们正在形成底部。

It's clear that we're undergoing a bottom formation.

你知道吗，也许2月5日是低点，但我仍然认为，未来几个月内还可能再出现一次，概率更高。

You know, maybe the February 5 was the bottom, but I still think there's another like, the probabilities are higher that we'll still see one in the next couple of months.

由于被动资金流入，跌幅可能会有所收窄，之后我们再看情况。

It might be a bit reduced due to passive flows, and yeah, we'll see from there.

但我也持开放态度，我的意思是，如果我们开始突破短期持仓的成本线并重新站上去，我又会变成看涨者，短期看涨。

But I'm also up to I mean, if we start pushing against the short hold the cost basis and we move back above it, I become a bull again, like short bull.

我的意思是，我长期始终是看涨的，但短期我们必须现实一点。

I mean, I'm a long term bull all the time, but, you know, short term, we have to be realistic.

而且，我认为时间是这个熊市中的一个关键因素。

And, yeah, I think time is a factor in this bear market.

我们需要经历这个过程。

We need to go through.

所以我的建议是，如果你是长期持有者，就耐心等待几个月，这将会得到回报。

So my message would be, you know, if you're a hauler, have patience for a couple of months, and and that will be rewarded.

要有耐心。

Have patience.

如果你有现金流，把定投金额加倍、三倍。

If you've got any cash flow, double, triple the DCAs.

现在就是机会。

This this is the opportunity now.

Root，非常感谢你，兄弟。

Root, thank you so much, man.

人们在哪里可以了解更多关于你的工作？

Where can people go to find out more about your work?

是的。

Yeah.

你可以访问 bitcoinstrategyplatform.com，或者订阅我的通讯，地址是 bitcoinstrategy.substack.com。

So you can go to bitcoinstrategyplatform.com or or subscribe to my newsletter, which is bitcoinstrategy.substack.com.

当然，你也可以在 Twitter 上关注我，用户名是 @the_irrational_root。

And you can, of course, follow me on on Twitter and no sir as at the irrational root.

而且，如果你关注我，不妨考虑成为付费订阅用户。

And, you know, if you follow me, you know, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

你将获得所有实时图表的访问权限，我会进一步为你提供更多信息，并和你一起深入分析这个熊市，以及如何精准地在底部区域入场。

You will get access to all the live charts, and I will actually keep you I'll give you more info, and I'll go through you together, like, to kinda dissect this bear market and where where to enter exactly around that bottom area.

太棒了。

Awesome.

谢谢你，兄弟。

Thank you, man.

我很快再和你联系。

I will speak to you soon.

我可能在拉斯维加斯见到你。

I'll probably see you in Vegas.

你要不要和我打个赌，看看拉斯维加斯时的价格是高于还是低于今天？

Do you wanna make a bet on the price by Vegas?

是更高还是更低呢？

What what higher or lower than today?

拉斯维加斯。

Vegas.