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将会有一次活动。
There will be an event.
比如，会有一个时刻，人们对货币失去信心。
Like, there there will be a moment when confidence is lost in the currency.
停止使用彼此的货币，采用一种中立的货币。
Stop using each other's currencies and adopt a neutral currency.
这样，货币就不再是武器了。
And then the currency isn't a weapon.
这样，更有可能实现一种秩序，而不是由某个单一权力掮客——也就是世界大战的胜利者——来主导。
There's a much better chance of order that isn't dictated by one single power broker, you know, being the winner of a a world war.
比特币之所以波动剧烈，是因为它难以理解。
Bitcoin is volatile because it's difficult to understand.
比特币随着时间推移而上涨，是因为越来越多的人使用它。
Bitcoin goes up over time because more people do.
帕克·刘易斯，欢迎回来，老兄。
Parker Lewis, welcome back, man.
是的
Yeah.
我认为是这样，前几天我在推特上读了雷·达利奥的文章，这似乎是目前最重要的宏观地缘政治议题。
The I think so I read Ray Dalio's piece on Twitter the other day, and it feels like the most important sort of macro geopolitical story right now.
我读的时候，文中完全没有提到比特币。
And as I was reading it, there's no mention of Bitcoin.
也很少提及是什么让我们走到这一步。
There's little mention of, like, what's got us to this point.
不过，这显然是他书中的一章，所以我认为他在书的前面部分可能已经阐述过了。
Although, it's obviously a chapter from his book, so I think he probably lays that out earlier in the book.
但在文章中，至少没有提到我们是如何走到今天的。
But in the article, least, there was no mention of how we got here.
我读这篇文章时就想，我得听听帕克对这件事的看法。
And as I was reading that, was like, I wanna get Parker's take on this.
因为他基本上是在描述世界秩序的崩塌、对制度彻底失去信心，甚至可能走向战争。
Because he's basically setting this up as the sort of breakdown of the world order, complete loss of faith in institutions, potentially heading to war.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我知道你打算读它。
I I know you were gonna read it.
你同意他的观点吗，还是觉得这是悲观主义的顶峰？
Do you agree with his take, or do you think this is sort of peak doomerism?
我想从我的书里引用他的一句话，但我认为这确实是悲观主义的顶峰。
So I wanna pull something up from I have a quote of his in my book, but I I think that it's it's peak dimerism.
这并不是说他的方向完全错了，但我确实去读了全文，你知道，我并不是雷·达利奥最忠实的追随者，但我确实关注他。
It's not that it's not directionally on point, But and I did go and and read the whole thing and, you know, it's like I'm not the the closest follower of Ray Dalio, but I do I do follow him.
不只是在推特上，作为投资者我也关注他。
Not just on Twitter, but just as a as an investor.
所以我对桥水基金和他的背景很熟悉。
And so I'm familiar with Bridgewater and his background.
而且我也熟悉曾经在桥水担任高管的人。
And and I'm also familiar with people that used to be executives at Bridgewater.
对我来说，这感觉非常肤浅。
It feels like very to me at least.
非深入的表面思考。
Non deep surface level thinking.
好的。
Okay.
观察一些症状，观察正在发生的事情，并试图解释它们。
Observing maybe symptoms, observing things that are happening and trying to explain them.
在非常表面的层次上，而不深入探究因果关系。
At a at a at a very surface level without getting into cause and effect.
我觉得是这样。
I'd say.
我读完这篇文章后的一个收获是，我记不清它的确切标题了。
One of the one of my takeaways from reading the piece, and I I can't remember exactly how it was titled.
好像是什么‘旧世界秩序已经死亡’之类的。
It was like the the old world order is dead or something like that.
而且，本质上，世界秩序已经崩溃了。
And yeah, essentially, it was like the world order is broken down.
是的。
Yeah.
世界秩序已经崩溃，旧有的世界秩序结束了。
The world the world order is broken down with the world orders over.
我当时就想，嗯，他在文章里举的例子是什么？他甚至没有定义什么是世界秩序。
And I was like, well, what what was the like in his piece as an example, he didn't even define what the world order was.
所以我做了一些研究，他其实只是在旁敲侧击，并没有明确说明，他基本上只是说现有的世界秩序已经崩溃，却没有解释这具体指的是什么，只是说我们正从一个更有秩序的状态走向无序，并谈到了大周期。
And so, you know, research that I did of like the and he I mean, he talks around it, but like didn't you know, it's never talking that way of he basically said the existing world world order is broken down without explaining what that exactly is and just saying that we're going from a place of more order to disorder and and talked about big cycles.
但我也注意到，他根本没有探讨事物为何崩溃的因果关系。
But also, I didn't actually talk about the cause and effect of why things are breaking down.
所以，这是我从这篇文章中获得的一个高层次的感悟。
And and so that was just a high level takeaway that I had from it.
当然，我们可以深入讨论这篇文章的具体内容，它谈到了不同类型的战争，比如经济战争，以及可能演变为实际战争的种种迹象，暗示的大概是美国与中国之间的对抗，但并没有明确点出这一点。
And, you know, we can get into specifics about the piece, but it talked about, you know, there's various different kinds of war and, you know, economic or kind of, you know, leading up to to physical war and really intimating, you know, presumably that it's like US first China, but didn't expressly say that.
他也没有真正提到黄金，只是说债券会贬值。
And he also didn't really have did mention gold at some part and that, like, you know, bonds would deflate.
但同样，没有深入探讨这一切背后的根源原因。
But again, without without just getting into the the root of what's causing it all.
所以，我的意思是，这仅仅是他的书中的一章，我还没读过他的书。
So, I mean, obviously, this was one chapter of his book, and I've not not read his book.
我买了这本书，但还没读。
I've got it, but I've not read it yet.
我想知道他是不是在书的前面部分已经做了一些这类初步的阐述。
I wonder if there's also he does some of that sort of preliminary stuff earlier in the book.
但让我们试着梳理一下，当前的世界秩序究竟是什么样子。
But let's try and, like, lay out what the world order was or is at this point.
因为当我读到的时候，我理解的几乎是后冷战时代的秩序，比如国际货币基金组织、世界银行、北约、联合国这些长期作为规则体系的机构。
Because, like, when I read it, the the what I took from it is it's almost like the post world world order of, you know, the IMF, the World Bank, NATO, the UN, all these institutions that have been, like, the rules based system for such a long time.
我们可能正在逐渐远离这种秩序的有效性。
We're potentially transitioning away from that being as effective.
但我想问的问题是，当人们说联合国、北约、国际货币基金组织、世界银行在当今体系中不再有效时，这意味着什么？
But I guess the the question that I would have is when people say that things like the UN, NATO, IMF, World Bank are no longer working in the system that we're in today.
自从上世纪四十年代这些机构刚出现时，到底发生了什么变化？
Like, what has changed since the sort of nineteen forties when these institutions had start, like, first came onto the scene?
是的。
Yeah.
我的观察是，通常这意味着美国一直是主导性的世界强国，二战后存在一些联盟。
So, I mean, one, like, again, my observation is just that what it generally means is that The US has been the dominant world power and there were alliances that existed post, you know, post World War two.
美国掌控着一切，没有人敢越界。
America was The United States was in control of everything, and nobody would step out of line.
而现在，我们正走向一个权力结构发生变化的时代——我认为他可能在书中提到过，或者我可能参考了其他内容，其中谈到这些重大的全球性转变：当一个新兴强国与现有强国发生冲突时，这种权力斗争就会出现。
And now we're going to a place where, you know, that power structure, like and I think he he might have even mentioned this in the book or or maybe I'm, you know, referencing other things where it talks about these big global shifts is that once there's a, you know, up and coming power that is in conflict with an existing power, that power struggle exists.
一旦新兴强国足够强大，它就不会再接受过去由现有超级大国通过威胁和武力维持的秩序，这种秩序就会瓦解。
And, once the rising power gets large enough, it it doesn't you know, the order that previously existed that came from the existing, essentially, superpower being able to threaten and win is is fractured.
他谈到了一些表象，但并没有明确说明该如何应对，至少我认为他没有提到的是，货币作为导致秩序崩溃的根源性因素。
Again, he talks about symptoms on, like, you know, not really, like, expressly how to position, but, like, one of the things that he didn't address, at least I don't think, is the currency as a causal piece of the order breaking down.
我认为他在其他地方也暗示了这一点。
I think he, like, intimates that in other places.
但举个例子，我刚从书里翻出来，不是为了铺垫，而是说明为什么我普遍不认为雷·达利奥是个特别深刻的思想家。
But, like, one of the examples, I just pulled this up from my book to, like, not set the stage, but, like, an example of why, like, I just generally don't think of Ray Dalio as a super deep thinker.
当然，这并不是在贬低他。
Again, like, not in an insulting way.
有一类投资者属于很广泛的一类。
It's like there's a there's a a broad class of investors.
因为我会说，雷·达利奥曾表示他配置了比特币，但他从未说过任何话表明他真正理解了比特币的运作机制或如何评估它。
Because I would I would say, like, Ray Dalio is someone who has said that he's, you know, allocating to Bitcoin, but nothing that he's ever said indicates that he really understands what's happening or how to evaluate it.
他只是在圈外打转。
He's like, he's around the around the hoop.
对吧？
Right?
他在将各种事物联系起来的模式识别上并不算太离谱，但与此同时，他并没有真正理解核心原则。
Like, he's not far off in terms of what I would call pattern matching of of connecting things together, but also at the same time, not really understanding the core principle.
所以让我找一下这个。
And so me let me just find this.
我书里有几个引述。
I had a I have a few quotes in the book.
哦，这要追溯到2017年。
Oh, so this goes back to 2017.
这对我来说是刚发生不久的事。
This was like right after for me.
我在2016年就开始深入研究比特币了。
Like, I'd gone down the Bitcoin rabbit hole in 2016.
有一天早上我看CNBC时，我已经弄清楚了比特币为何会成为货币。
And I'm watching CNBC one morning and I've I've figured out both why Bitcoin is emerging as money.
我也明白了他们为什么必须印钞，为什么非得印钞，以及印钞带来的问题，还有这种依赖信任的法币体系在交易中的弊端。
I've also figured out why they're always gonna have to to print money and why why they have to print money and the the problems with printing money and the problems with a fiat system that is inherently trust based to people to a trade.
如果你和一个潜在的对手交易，在法币体系下，你不得不使用其中一种货币。
And if you're trading with someone that you're potentially a foe of, you're having to use one of in in the fiat world, you're having to use one currency or or the other.
对吧？
Right?
在过去五十年里，美元主导了全球贸易。
So for the last fifty years, more the dollar has dominated global trade.
但如果你是中国、俄罗斯，或者你看看美国对俄罗斯所做的事——将它踢出SWIFT系统，并实际上冻结了其全部国债，这就把货币推入了政治、经济，甚至可能是一场他所说的军事或武力对抗的中心。
But if you are China or Russia or, you know, if you're looking at the you know, what The United States did to Russia kicking it off of SWIFT and and, functionally, seizing all of their treasuries, that puts the the currency in the center of a political fight, an economic fight, and potentially a what he would call a military fight or a kinetic fight.
但贸易本质上受阻的根本问题，也就是战争的另一面，是货币和货币超发的问题。
But the root a root problem of the the impairment of effectively, like, trade as the other side of of war is is the money and the problem of money printing.
如果你知道与你交易的人、你所接受的其货币，一直在超发，而你又持有大量他们的国债，因为你靠国债收益来对冲货币贬值，但他们持续超发，还不断威胁你。
If you knew that the person that you were trading with and whose currency you were taking was constantly printing it, and you owned a bunch of their treasuries because you were offsetting the debasement in the currency by the yield of the treasuries, but they kept printing it and then they kept threatening you.
那么，你真的不想再用他们的货币进行交易了。
Well, you don't really wanna continue to to trade with your currency.
中国一直在做的一件事，而俄罗斯则更是被迫如此。
And one of the things that that China has been doing and and Russia really out more so out of force.
再次强调，深入这些地缘政治的细节，我当然不是专家，但我能诊断出货币的问题：它们都在面对同一个问题——如果你把俄罗斯踢出SWIFT，迫使它另寻出路，那谁还愿意信任对方的货币呢？
And, again, getting into the the details of the these geopolitics is like, I am certainly not the experts of experts, but I can I can diagnose the the problems of the currency is that they're all looking at the same problem, which is how like, if you cut Russia off of SWIFT and now they're having to resolve that, then no one wants to trust the other's currency?
俄罗斯不会愿意信任中国的货币。
Russia wouldn't wanna trust China's currency.
中国也不会愿意信任俄罗斯的货币。
China wouldn't wanna trust Russia's currency.
他们都不愿信任美国的货币，尽管有关于俄罗斯重返美元体系的讨论。
Neither of them wanna trust The United States currency, even though there's talks about Russia getting back onto the dollar system.
这就像钟声已经敲响了。
It's like that that bell has been rung.
因此，需要注意的是，达利奥并没有深入探讨这个问题的根源。
And so just noting that, like, Dalio didn't really go into the the root of that problem.
这是2017年的一段话，当时我在CNBC上听到他说这句话，我简直惊呆了，不得不录下来，倒回去，用手机重新录了一遍。
And then this was a this was a quote from, like, 2017 when when I heard him say this on CNBC, I was like, I literally had to record it, like, rewind it, record it on my phone.
他说，金融危机会涉及货币和信贷。
And he said, and he's talking about the financial crisis, he says, there's money and there's credit.
唯一重要的是支出。
The only thing that matters is spending.
你可以花现金，也可以花信贷。
And you can spend money and you can spend credit.
当信贷下降时，你最好向系统注入现金，以维持相同的消费水平。
And when credit goes down, you better put money into the system so you can have the same level of spending.
他们通过金融体系就是这样做的，而且这个方法奏效了。
That's what they did through the financial system, and that thing worked.
自从听到他说这句话后，我之后听到的他关于比特币或世界秩序崩塌的任何言论——我认为世界秩序确实在崩塌——都让我有了新的理解。
And ever since I heard him say that, then anything else that I heard him say since then as it relates to Bitcoin or in this case of of the world order breaking down, which I I think that it is as well.
但如果你无法认识到货币体系本身被用作武器这一核心问题，那么你该如何理解？我们曾经经历过金本位。
But if you're not able to see, you know, the the currency system as an and and it being weaponized as a a chief problem, then how do you and we've come from a gold standard.
我们曾经经历过布雷顿森林体系。
We've come from Bretton Woods.
如果你只说‘有货币，有信贷’这样的观点，你又该如何理解我们正走向何方，以及这一切将如何发展？
How do you navigate through to the other side of, like, where are we actually going and how does this play out if you're making comments like there's money and there's credit.
如果信贷下降，你最好增加货币供应。
And if credit goes down, you better put more money.
顺便说一下，量化宽松是有效的。
And and by the way, quantitative easing worked.
对。
Right.
因为他所说的其他事情其实都很到位，比如我们存在财富差距，而这个差距是个问题。
Because everything else he said is like he he says other things that are that are kind of on point, which is like, oh, we we have this wealth gap and the wealth gaps a problem.
你怎么就是不把这两者明确联系起来呢？
It's like, how how how are you not expressly connecting these two?
你知道吗？你怎么不把你在美国内部看到的那些表象问题——比如不断扩大的财富鸿沟——和货币体系联系起来呢？
You know, how are you not how are you not connecting the the symptomatic problems you're seeing just like, say, within The United States and the the problem of expanding wealth caps to the currency?
同样地，你怎么不把这种地缘政治秩序的瓦解——无论他们如何定义现有世界秩序——与货币体系联系起来呢？
And then similarly, how are you not seeing this geopolitical breakdown of what whatever or however they define the existing world order to the currency system.
对吧？
Right?
如果你不这么做，那你本质上就不可能真正理解。
If you don't do that, you're not you're inevitably not really maybe understanding.
再说一次，我知道这超出了货币的范畴。
Again, I know it goes beyond currency.
我并不是说世界上的一切，比如地缘政治对手或潜在的战争对手，都归结于金钱。
I'm not saying that everything in the world between, you know, geopolitical rivals or potentially war rivals in war comes down to money.
它涉及更多因素，比如国家资源和权力。
It comes down to more things than that, national resources and power
但金钱是很大一部分原因。
But money is a big part
这一点。
of that.
以及安全。
And security.
但货币是贸易的基础。
But money money is the basis of trade.
所以你要么是为了资源与某人交易，要么是为了安全与某人交易。
So either you're going to trade with somebody for resources or trade with somebody for security.
否则，如果这行不通，你就可能发动战争。
Or if if if that doesn't work, then you might go to war.
对。
Right.
比如。
Like.
以俄罗斯为例，我不是说这是战争的根本原因，但比如。
In Russia's case, like and I'm not saying this is the basis of the war, but like.
他们可以贸易获取天然气，也可以掠夺天然气。
They could trade for natural gas or they could plunder for natural gas.
如果他们同时感到自身的安全受到威胁，那么在权衡战争与贸易、战争与谈判时，你会想，如果你有一个可靠稳定的贸易伙伴，战争会彻底摧毁资本。
If they also feel threatened at the same time for their own security, then when they're thinking about the calculus of war versus trade, war versus negotiation, it's like, well, you know, if you were trading and you had a good reliable trade partner, wars destroy capital 100.
对吧？
Right?
比如，破窗理论说战争能创造经济活动，这完全是客观上错误的。
Like, the the broken window theory and that that war creates economic activity, 100% objectively false.
战争可能在某种意义上是有利可图的，比如你虽然有损失，但获得的收益大于损失，但百分之百的战争会摧毁资本。
War could be profitable in the sense of, like, you have some loss, but you get a gain that's larger than loss, but a 100% destroys capital.
如果你，你知道的，往别人的桥上扔一颗炸弹，然后说，哦，桥得重建了。
If you if you, you know, drop a bomb on somebody else on a bridge, say, well, bridge has to be rebuilt.
那原本就是资本。
That that was capital.
所以，只是指出，货币和贸易——如果你和某个伙伴有深厚的贸易关系，你们彼此提供有价值的东西。
And so just just noting or flagging that the money and trade, if you have a deep trading relationship with a partner, they're giving you something of value, you're giving them something else of value.
这个世界更有秩序，你更不可能发动战争，因为你依赖对方提供有价值的东西，而贸易的基础是互惠的。
There's more order in that world, and you're less likely to go to war because you're relying on them for something valuable if it's and and the basis of trade is mutual.
但如果一方面你使用的是某个国家的货币，而另一方面这个国家正在主动贬值它，同时又将其武器化，那么这一切在根本层面上就被打破了。
Now all of that gets broken up at a foundational level if, on one hand you're using one country's currency, and on the other hand, that country is debasing it, actively creating this natural impetus to to shift away from it at the same time as being weaponized.
我认为，这些正是Dalio的文章中没有直接关注的要素，他没有深入因果关系。
And I think that those those were the pieces that both are not, like, directly in Dalio's piece of keying in on cause and effect.
他基本上是在说，事情正在崩溃，而事实确实如此。
He's basically saying things are breaking down, which they are.
这并没有那么有价值，因为如果不弄清楚因果关系，你就无法真正决定接下来该走哪条路。
It's just not not that valuable because without getting to the cause and effect, you can't then really decide, well, well, what is the path?
出路在哪里？
What's the path out?
无论你是从金融角度思考，还是从如何避免事情演变成第三次世界大战的角度来看。
Whether you're thinking from a financial perspective or from a how does this thing not go into a a World War three type scenario.
如果你能同时降低你的税单并积累比特币呢？
What if you could lower your tax bill and stack Bitcoin at the same time?
通过使用Blockware挖矿，你就可以做到。
Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can.
来自《大美法案》的新税务指南允许美国矿工在单个纳税年度内全额抵扣其挖矿硬件的成本。
New tax guidelines from the big beautiful bill allow American miners to write off a 100% of the cost of their mining hardware in a single tax year.
没错。
That's right.
100%的全额抵扣。
A 100% write off.
所以，如果你有十万美元的资本利得或收入，你可以购买十万美元的矿机，完全抵扣掉。
So if you have a $100,000 in capital gains or income, you can purchase a $100,000 of miners and offset it entirely.
Blockware的矿机即服务让你无需动手即可立即开始挖比特币。
Blockware's mining as a service enables you to start mining Bitcoin right now without lifting a finger.
Blockware负责一切，包括保障矿机安全、采购低成本电力以及配置矿池。
Blockware handles everything from securing the miners to sourcing low cost power to configuring the pool.
他们包办所有事情。
They do it all.
你每天都能以折扣价积累比特币，同时在报税季大幅节省开支。
You get to stack Bitcoin at a discount every single day while also saving big come tax season.
立即访问 mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd 开始使用。
Get started today by going to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd.
当然，这些都不是税务建议。
Of course, none of this is tax advice.
请咨询你的会计师或税务顾问，了解这些规定如何适用于你，然后前往 mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd，每购买一台托管矿机，你将获得一周的免费托管和电力。
Speak to your accountant or tax adviser to understand how these rules apply to you, and then head over to mining.blockwaresolutions.com/wbd, and you'll get one week of free hosting and electricity with each hosted miner purchased.
你是否希望能在不卖出比特币的情况下获得现金？
Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin?
Ledden 让这成为可能。
Well, Ledden makes that possible.
他们是全球领先的比特币抵押贷款服务商，自2018年以来已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，且始终完美保护客户资产。
They're the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets.
使用 Ledden，你可以获得全额托管贷款，无需信用审核或月度还款，只需轻松获得美元，而无需卖出一个聪。
With Ledden, you get full custody loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT.
自7月1日起，Ledden 仅接受比特币，意味着他们仅提供以比特币为抵押的贷款，所有抵押品均由 Ledden 或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。
As of July 1, Ledin is Bitcoin only, meaning they exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by Ledin directly or their funding partners.
你的比特币永远不会被借出以产生利息。
Your Bitcoin is never lent out to generate interest.
我最近在 Ledden 办理了一笔贷款。
I recently took out a loan with Ledden.
整个过程非常简单。
The whole process was super easy.
申请过程不到十五分钟，几个小时后我就把钱到账了。
The application took me less than fifteen minutes, and in a few hours, I had the dollars in my account.
整个过程非常顺畅。
It was really smooth.
所以如果你需要现金但不想卖出比特币，去 leden.io/wbd 注册，你的首笔贷款可享受 0.25% 的折扣。
So if you need cash but you don't wanna sell Bitcoin, head over to leaden.io/wbd, and you'll get point 25% off your first loan.
那就是 leden.io/wbd。
That's leaden.io/wbd.
移动网络从未将隐私视为优先事项。
Privacy was never a priority for mobile networks.
对于像 AT&T、T-Mobile 和 Verizon 这样的公司来说，数据收集和变现是默认做法，但 Cape 正在改变这一点。
For companies like AT and T, T Mobile, and Verizon, data collection and monetization is the default, but Cape is changing that.
Cape 是一家全美覆盖的高端移动运营商，从底层设计之初就将隐私和安全作为核心。
Cape is a premium US mobile carrier with nationwide coverage designed from the ground up with privacy and security at the core.
注册时，Cape 只收集最必要的数据，存储时间尽可能短，且从不出售这些数据。
When you sign up, cape collects the absolute minimum data required, stores it for the shortest time possible, and never sells it.
它们还让你在网络层面更难被追踪，并防范SIM卡交换攻击，而这种攻击正成为越来越严重的安全风险，尤其是对比特币用户而言。
They also make you significantly harder to track at the network level and protect against SIM swap attacks, which are becoming one of the biggest security risks out there, especially for Bitcoiners.
Cape的SIM卡交换保护机制从根本上不同。
Cape SIM swap protection is fundamentally different.
你的账户不是通过用户名和密码保护，而是使用一个24词的助记词，类似于比特币钱包的工作方式。
Instead of usernames and passwords, your account is secured by a 24 word passphrase similar to how Bitcoin wallet works.
除了你本人，没有人能发起SIM卡交换或控制你的手机号码。
No one can initiate a SIM swap or take control of your phone number except you.
这并不是一种一次性手机或临时解决方案。
This isn't a burner phone or a workaround.
这是一种真正被正确构建的正规移动服务。
It's a normal mobile service built properly.
如果你重视隐私和安全，没有比Cape更好的移动运营商了。
If you care about privacy and security, there is no better mobile carrier.
要了解更多信息并享受前六个月33%的折扣，请访问cape.co/wbd，并在结账时使用代码wbd。
To learn more and get 33% off your first six months, head to cape.co/wbd and use code w b d at checkout.
那就是 cape.co/wbd。
That's cape.co/wbd.
由于法币持续贬值，财富保值已非可选之举。
With fiat money constantly debasing, wealth preservation isn't optional.
因此，我推荐 Swan Bitcoin，这是一支由专注比特币的人士组成的团队，他们帮助家庭和企业通过比特币构建和保障代际财富。
That's why I recommend Swan Bitcoin, a team of dedicated Bitcoiners who work with families and businesses to build and secure generational wealth with Bitcoin.
与客户建立牢固的关系是 Swan 所有工作的核心。
Strong relationships with clients are at the center of everything Swan does.
一位专属的 Swan 私人财富顾问——一位你可以发短信或打电话的真实人员——将帮助你利用 Swan 全面的比特币服务平台制定比特币财富策略，包括具有税收优势的退休账户、采用协同自托管的高级比特币冷存储、结合信托和实体账户的遗产规划、税务损失收割、资产抵押贷款等。
A dedicated Swan private wealth representative, which is a real person that you can text and call, will help you build a Bitcoin wealth strategy using Swan's comprehensive platform of Bitcoin services, including tax advantage retirement accounts, advanced Bitcoin cold storage using collaborative self custody, inheritance planning with both trust and entity accounts, tax loss harvesting, asset backed loans, and more.
自 2020 年以来，Swan 已帮助超过十万名客户。
Swan have helped over a 100,000 clients since 2020.
如果你认真对待比特币的获取与安全保管，我推荐 Swan。
And if you're serious about acquiring and securing Bitcoin, I recommend Swan.
前往 swan.com/wbd 了解团队，也就是 swan.com/wbd。
Meet the team at swan.com/wbd, which is swan.com/wbd.
在这篇文章中，他将五种不同类型的战争都纳入其中。
In the piece, he puts five different types of war in that.
所以有贸易战争、科技战争、地缘政治战争、资本战争和军事战争。
So there's trade war, technological war, geopolitical, capital war, and military.
如果你仔细分析这些，我认为你几乎可以论证我们已经至少身处其中四种了。
And if you look through them, I think you could probably argue that we're in at least four of them already.
比如，就贸易战争而言，关税很可能就是其中的一部分。
Like, I think in terms of trade war, like, tariffs are probably a part of that.
科技战争，比如人工智能领域的竞争，就符合这一定义。
Technology wars, like, the sort of race for AI seems to fit that bill.
地缘政治方面，我认为特朗普在委内瑞拉的所作所为，以及他可能想在格陵兰采取的行动，都属于这一类。
Geopolitical, like, I think the stuff that Trump's done in Venezuela and is potentially wanting to do in Greenland, like, they fit there.
至于资本战争，回头看，冻结俄罗斯国债无疑是美国最大的自损行为，甚至在当时就已严重动摇了人们对美元体系的信任。
And capital was, like, the freezing of the Russian treasuries in hindsight, and maybe even at the time seems like the biggest own goal for The US and, like, destroys the faith in the sort of dollar system in a in a lot of ways.
你觉得我们是否已经符合了这四项标准，而唯一剩下的就是全面的军事冲突了？
Do you think we those we kind of fit those four criteria, and then the only one left is actual all out walls.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，在某些情况下，如果你看看美国对俄罗斯或中国的情况，这些条件都已满足。
I mean, I think in in certain cases, if you look at, you know, The US vis a vis Russia or China, that all of those are are checked.
我认为，甚至在军事方面，和俄罗斯的关系也是如此，你说是吧。
I think that, like, you know, even on, like, the military side, it's like with Russia, you say, hey.
美国并没有直接与俄罗斯开战，欧洲也没有直接与俄罗斯开战。
The United States is not directly at war with Russia, and Europe is not directly at war with Russia.
但如果你提供
But if you're providing
这是一场代理人战争。
It's a proxy.
武器和资金，难道不是吗？
Weapons and money, like, are are you not?
你知道的？
You know?
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
所以我认为这是另一个层面，我读过一本很棒的书。
And so I I'd say that's another degree where and I I read this great book.
我甚至不觉得它还在出版，但我还是会推荐给别人。
I don't even think it's still in publication, but I recommend it to people.
它叫《债务中的世界》，作者我觉得叫蒂尔登·弗里曼。
It's called A World in Debt by I think the guy's name is Tilden Freeman.
但他梳理了各种债务关系，比如个人是债务人，国家是债务人，其中有一章专门讲债务与战争。
But he goes through all of the the different relationships of debt of like, you know, individual is debtor, nation is debtor, but one of the sections is on debt and war.
在这一章中，他给出了一个清晰的逻辑解释，说明是什么驱动了战争。
And in that, he provides a, like an actual logical explanation for what drives war.
他并没有说战争有不同的类型。
And he distinguishes like he doesn't say like there's different kinds of war.
他讨论的正是战争本身。
He's talking about specifically war.
我们就要开战了。
Like, we're going to war.
那它的动机到底是什么？
Like, what what are the what are the motivations of it?
因为如果你不讨论经济战、贸易战、科技战的动机，那么当你想看看——
Because if you're not talking about what are the motivations for an economic war, a trade war, a technological war, then, again, if you're looking to see, hey.
我们是否正在走向实际的军事战争时，
Are we progressing to this kinetic military war?
你根本没有从因果层面去解释这些事情。
You you're you're you're you're not trying to explain things at the cause and effects level.
因为如果你不从因果层面出发，那你又怎么去给他人提建议呢？
Because if you're not at the cause and effect level, then how do you, you know, advise somebody?
我不确定瑞·达利欧有没有接触到特朗普政府的核心，但他只是在公开场合这样说。
Like, I I don't know if Ray Dalio's, you know, got the ear of the Trump administration, but, like, he's just, like, saying this out in the ether.
但他是一个非常有影响力、极其富有的人。
But he is a very powerful, like, extremely wealthy person.
就像是，嘿。
It's like, hey.
如果你有一些见解，那你建议如何才能缓解所有这些紧张局势呢？
If you have some insight, like, what what do you recommend is the path out of deescalating all of these things?
但如果你不试图探究根本原因——是什么在驱动所有这些行为者？
But if you're not trying to get to the root of, well, what's motivating all the different actors?
在这本书中，蒂尔顿·弗里曼基本上指出——这本书写于第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战之间的大萧条时期——通常被接受的两个理性战争动因，也就是人们常说的那些理由。
And in this book, Tilton Freeman basically laid out, like and this was written around the Great Depression between World War one and World War two, that the the two generally accepted, like, rational reasons for war, the the ones that are, like, typically said, like, hey.
我记得，一个正当的开战理由是保障贸易航线，以及任何国家维持自身生存所需的东西。
You know, this is a good reason to go to war is, if I remember, security in, like, securing trade lines and and and anything that, you know, your country would need to sustain itself.
或者，我觉得更奇怪的是这一点。
Or and this was the one that I felt was more strange.
扩张主义。
Expansionism.
帝国。
Empire.
帝国的欲望，或者你有不断增长的人口，就需要扩张。
Empire desires or, you know, you have a growing population you need to to expand.
所以，安全方面的考量可能是来自他人的威胁，或者你需要资源来保护自己的主权，而也许就在国境另一侧的人拥有这些资源。
And so, you know, the the the security side would be either the security of someone else that that's threatening you or, you know, you need resources to protect your sovereignty, and maybe someone just on the other side of a border has those resources.
再者，贸易是一条途径。
Again, trade is one route.
这是一种更资本高效的途径。
It's a more capital efficient route.
但如果有人不思考这些深层次的原因，比如，为什么中国和美国会走上这种碰撞的道路？
But if someone is not thinking about those levels of, like, well, why, you know, why would the China why would China and The United States be on this collision course?
对吧？
Right?
不仅要思考通过我们接收的渠道传播的地缘政治宣传，还要真正地问：好吧。
And thinking about the not just like the geopolitics that come through our wavelengths that are propaganda on either side, but, like, really saying, okay.
是什么在把我们推向悬崖？
What what's driving us off this cliff?
我只是觉得，这有点像，是的。
I just I don't think that it it's kinda like, yeah.
我们都明白，现状正在崩溃，感觉很疯狂。
We we all get that the shit is breaking down and feels crazy.
世界该如何应对，以防止更糟糕的结果发生？
What is the world to do about it to to prevent a worse outcome?
我对这个问题的解释是，嘿。
My my explanation for that would be, hey.
停止使用彼此的货币，转而采用一种中立货币。
Like, stop using each other's currencies and adopt a neutral currency.
这样，货币就不再是武器了。
And then the currency isn't a weapon.
货币体系就不再是武器了。
The currency system isn't a weapon.
我从两个角度来看待这个问题。
One doesn't, you know because I I I view it in two ways.
货币作为武器，就像是，好吧。
The the currency as a weapon being like, okay.
我们可以印钞，而你们不行。
We can print it and you can't.
我们基本上是在向你们出口，用我们凭空创造的钱换取你们的商品和服务，而不是把货币系统看作是交易的基础设施——嘿，我们不仅在使用自己的货币系统，还要切断你们接入它的途径，从而武器化你们利用它向他人转账的能力。
And we're basically exporting to you, taking your goods and services for money that we create out of thin air versus the currency system being the rails of of looking and saying, oh, not only we're using our currency system, but, hey, we're gonna cut you off from it and and weaponize your ability to to to leverage it to send money to other people.
这会不会是全世界能做的最了不起的事，让贸易重回核心，从而满足各国感受到的某些被威胁的需求和愿望？
That that would be the single greatest thing the world could do to put trade back in the front to satisfy potentially some of those needs wants that various different countries feel threatened by?
是的。
Yeah.
我的问题可多了，都跟这个有关。
I mean, I've got a ton of questions in in that.
但如果我们先从最基本的问题开始：世界需要一个新的秩序吗？
But if we just start with, like, does the world need a new order?
因为，如果你看看当前塑造世界秩序的那些东西，大多数都是战后建立的。
Because, like, if you look at the things that are sort of creating the order in the world right now, most of those were created sort of postwar.
世界已经大不相同了。
The world is a very different place.
这种以法定债务为基础的体系，是不是已经走得太远，我们需要彻底调整了？
Does, like, the fiat debt based system mean that at this point, it's gone too far and we need a shuffle?
我们需要重新调整一下。
We need to change things around.
因为如果回顾一下近现代历史，两次世界秩序的变革，比如布雷顿森林体系，以及可能的1971年石油美元体系。
Because I guess, like, historically, if you look back over, like, recent history, the two changes in world order, like the Bretton Woods and then potentially, like, 1971 petrodollar system.
是的。
Yeah.
但我想说得更深入一点，我觉得雷达利亚所描述的是，当一场大战爆发，一个超级大国压倒另一个时，秩序就发生了转变。
But I would I would say more, and this is I I feel like, you know, the what Redalia was outlining was that the the order shifted when, like, essentially, there was a great war and a one power went out over the other.
而胜利的一方则确立了规则。
And then the winning the winning power essentially Set's the rules.
规则由它制定，并由它主导。
The rules and and dictates it.
对吧？
Right?
而且我认为，你知道，目前还不清楚我们是否正走向同样的道路，因为你可能会说，中国是崛起中的强国，而美国是衰落中的强国。
And I think that, you know, it's still unclear whether we're heading down that same path because you could say, well, China's a rising power in The US is a declining power.
或者至少这可能是一个 headline。
Or at least that might be a headline.
但我并不一定认同这一点。
I don't necessarily ascribe to it.
但如果你从这个角度来看，你会说，如果中国赢得了一场战争，那么它们就会确立世界秩序。
But, you know, if you looked at something through that lens, you'd say, well, if if China won a war, then they then they set the world order.
我认为另一种看待方式是，这正是你可能会根据雷·达利奥所提出的模式进行模式匹配时所定义的。
I think another way to look at and and that's what that would be what how you would define it if you were looking maybe at the the the pattern matching or or looking at the patterns that Ray Dalio had had had put forward.
但在那样的世界里，总是有一个国家或一组盟友赢得战争，然后向其他人强加规则。
But it but in the in that in that world, it was always like one one country or one set of allies that have won a war then dictating the rules to everybody else.
如果所有法币体系都崩溃了，就会出现一种中立货币。
If all fiat systems die, then there's a neutral currency.
世界上贸易的方式在功能上与以往任何时期都不同。
Well, the the way that trade occurs in the world is functionally different than it ever occurred before.
因为在此之前，严格来说，我就说过去三百年左右吧。
Because ever before, practically speaking, and I'm talking about in the last three hundred years, say.
黄金作为一种基础商品金属，或者白银，但依赖于由王室或政府铸造的各种不同货币。
Gold as a as an underlying commodity metal or silver, but leveraging various different types of currencies that were being coined by crowns or governments.
而且，即使在那些过程中，也不存在真正中立的贸易平衡。
And, again, even in those processes, there was it wasn't a truly neutral trading balance.
因此，我的观点是，贸易将带来大量秩序，而且这并非天真之举。
And so my view of it is that there's a lot of order that will come via trade without, you know, again, and it's not naive.
我的意思是，总是会存在一些问题，我不知道是谁说过，原话是什么，但大概是说，人在自然状态下总是会担忧之类的，意思是，仅仅拥有中立货币，并不意味着一切都会万事大吉，一个人依然会想抢另一个人的石油，或者其他资源、土地，你知道的，无论是裸露的金属还是任何崛起国家所渴望的资源。
It's like, hey, there are always, you know, like, I don't know who said it, what the quotes were, but like man in his natural state is worrying or something along those lines of like, hey, this isn't just if we have a neutral currency, everything will be hunky dory and one man is not going to want to steal another man's oil or whatever other resource land, you know, with, you know, bare earth metals or what what whatever is desired for whatever whatever the goal might be of a rising, growing nation.
但即使在那样的世界里，人们也能意识到，如果贸易的基础更加稳固，不只是在边际上，而是从根本上，与当今世界的贸易模式相比，就更有可能形成一种秩序，这种秩序不会由某个单一强国——即世界大战的胜利者——来主导。
But even in that world, someone could recognize, well, if there was a greater basis for trade, then not just on the margin, but categorically versus how the world exists today from a trading perspective, there's a there's a much better chance of order that isn't dictated by one single power broker, you know, being the winner of a world war.
可能会出现大量秩序，以及大量更加富有成效、远没那么敌对的双边关系，而不是必须由一方掌控或占据主导地位。
It's there could be a lot of order and a lot of bilateral relationships that are far more fruitful, far less antagonistic than necessarily having one side be in a control or power position.
这件事让我想到的一点是，如果我们正朝着世界变得更加混乱的方向发展。
One of the things that this piece made me think is, like, if we're moving towards like, the world is getting more chaotic.
这毫无疑问。
That's for sure.
那么，建立一种新的世界秩序会是更好的结果吗？
Would it move to, a new world order be a preferable outcome?
如果你看看这两种可能性，我想要么我们退回去，避免全面战争，法币体系继续存在，我们今天的制度也继续维持，尽管它们已经从过去的状态有所衰退。
Like, if if you look at the two possibilities, I guess it's either we kind of wind this back, move away from sort of all out war, and the fiat system continues and the institutions that we have today continue even though they're sort of eroded from where they used to be.
这是更理想的结果吗？还是说，现在承受痛苦，以便在另一边获得更好的结果，才是更理想的？
Is that a preferred outcome, or is going through the pain now to come out something better on the other side a preferred outcome?
这确实很难去
And it is something that's quite hard to kind of
平衡。
balance.
我描述它的方式是，不管他是否认同正确的因果关系，都像是在一段时间里，世界在相对意义上是有秩序的，但现在秩序减少了。
Way that I describe it would be, it's like, regardless of whether or not he's keen on on the right cause and effects, it's like the world for a period of time had order order on a relative basis and there there is less order.
而且这一点，你知道，再次说明了我为什么说，嘿。
And that and that, you know, again, that's one of the reasons where I was like, hey.
如果你说的是这个意思，好吧。
If that's what you're saying, okay.
我们大家都能普遍感受到，无论是在地缘政治的荒谬现象上，还是在各国国内，都能感觉到。
We all we all can generally see and feel that, you know, at different levels, whether it's geopolitical nonsense, whether it's within countries.
对吧？
Right?
因为这不仅仅是欧洲与俄罗斯、美国与欧洲与俄罗斯，或者美国与中国之间的动态。
Because it's not just, you know, the dynamics between Europe and Russia and US, Europe and Russia, or The US and and China.
它也发生在英国，你知道的，在美国。
It's in The UK, you know, in The United States.
而且，你知道，任何地方——我只能以自己生活在美國的体验来说，因为你能切身感受到，我们正从一个有序的时期走向无序。
And, you know, anyone you know, I can only speak to to living in The United States because you can you can feel it viscerally, is that we're going from a period of order to disorder.
你知道吗？
You know?
并不是说它们没有关联，但从一个纯粹的层面来看，它们与某些地缘政治对手或威胁是完全独立的。
Not to say they're not related, but entirely independent from a from a plane perspective than some geopolitical foe or threat.
所以这确实是事实。
And and so that's just true.
事情曾经是有秩序的，但现在正变得混乱。
It's like things have been ordered and they're becoming disordered.
现在我认为，你可以说，那么，究竟是什么造就了这种秩序呢？
Now I think it's you know, you can say, well, the order what what what was creating the order?
那是二战之后，美国是超级大国，当时没有任何海军能与之抗衡。
Well, it was post World War two, and The United States was the superpower, and it was the you know, there there was no navy that could rival it.
它保护了海上航道。
It protected the waterways.
它保护了贸易航线，因此掌握了主导权。
It protected the trade lines, and therefore, it called the shots.
而这种秩序正是由此衍生出来的。
And a derivative of that was order.
另一种说法是，潜在的波动性可能被压制了，但它一直都在那里。
And and another way to say it was like, maybe maybe the the underlying volatility was suppressed, but it was it was always going to be there.
然后我会从另一个角度看待这个问题：雷·达利奥的文章中缺失了某种东西，那就是他没有说明接下来可能的秩序会是什么样子。
And then I would look at it from the perspective of it's not like because it's it's something else that's absent wanting and absent in Ray Dalio's piece, which is he doesn't say what the likely next order is.
他可能不想说，因为在他看来，如果只是照搬历史，那很可能会爆发一场世界大战。
He might not want to say it because, like, in his mind, if he's just matching history, it would be, well, there's likely gonna be a world war.
而赢得那场战争的人将确立新的秩序。
And whoever wins that war is going to set the order.
它会创造出新的秩序。
It's going to create the order.
在我看来，更多的秩序通常比严重的混乱要好。
In my mind, looking at it and saying, like, more order generally is is is better than great disorder.
以委内瑞拉为例，撇开美国和尼古拉斯·马杜罗不谈，单从经济角度看，当他们的货币崩溃时，国家就陷入了严重的混乱。
And looking at a country like Venezuela, setting aside The United States and having Nicolas Maduro, but just from an economic perspective, it's like, man, when when their currency collapsed, the country went into great disorder.
严重的混乱会带来什么后果？
What happens with with great disorder?
财富被摧毁，人们死亡，这甚至不需要一场实际的战争。
Wealth is destroyed and people die, you know, without a without a kinetic war.
这就是无序的状态。
That that's what disorder is.
这就是从有序走向无序的过程。
That's what order going to disorder from.
即使你正走向无序，如果无序的最低点之后事物开始重新变得有序，而不是继续恶化，那显然会比那种持续不断恶性下滑的状况要好得多。
And it would certainly be better even if you were heading to to a path of disorder, if the bottom of that disorder of of of when things be start to become more ordered rather than less would certainly be better than an alternative where it just keeps spiraling down and down and down and down.
而且，再次强调，在我看来，这并不是说：嘿。
And, again, in my mind, it's not like, hey.
秩序是什么？
What is the order?
谁是统治力量？
Who who's the ruling power?
美国真的需要和中国开战，必须分出胜负吗？
Like, does the does The United States need to go to war with China and one has to win and then the other?
这就像，嗯，你知道，两个生活在真空中、厌倦了风扇的人可能会想，哦，那可能需要发生，而任何坐在外面的人都会觉得，那肯定会更糟。
It's like, well, like, you know, two two people who live in a vacuum who are sick of fans might think, oh, that might need to happen when anybody else sitting outside would be like, certainly, that would be worse off.
如果那真的发生，每个人都会变得更糟。
Everybody would be worse off if that happened.
但中情局里的人，或者，你知道，某些深层政府的人可能会说，是的。
But someone in the CIA or, you know, some deep state thing might be like, yeah.
这就是，这就是我们进行战争推演。
This is this is we got a war game.
事情就会这样发展，就像，你知道的，伊朗会变得疯狂。
This is the way it's gonna go and, like, you know, Iran, nuts off.
但这就像是，它仍然是更多的混乱，也许在他们心中，这种混乱是希望通过它来创造秩序。
But it's like, it's still more it's more disorder, and it is disorder maybe in their minds with a hope of of then creating order from it.
但这就像是，再次强调，如果你不解决这个问题，贸易是合作的基础。
But it's like, again, if you don't solve the like, trade is the basis of cooperation.
它并不凌驾于，你知道的，有人想要建立帝国并需要获取石油之上。
It does not sit above, you know, somebody wanting to build an empire and have, you know, need to acquire oil.
再说一遍，我在这一点上并不天真。
Like, again, like, I'm not naive in that respect.
但如果你能以交易石油为基础，而不是去占领他们的国家，那会让所有人都过得更好。
But if you have the basis for to trade somebody for oil rather than take their country over, that's going to leave everybody in a better place.
如果你没有有效协调贸易的基础，就更可能由一场大规模战争的胜利来决定秩序，而掌控军队的人就会向其他人强加秩序。
If you don't really have a basis to effectively coordinate trade, you're more likely to to have an order that's dictated by a war a large war being won, and then whoever is controlling the military, that one dictating order to everybody else.
这可能就是会发生的事情。
That that that might be what happens.
在当今这个时代，这种情况对地球上所有人的生活来说都不太可能是好事。
That's that's unlikely to be good for everybody living on the earth at this moment in time.
如果你还没试过Club Orange，现在就是时候了。
If you haven't tried out Club Orange yet, then now is the time.
我旅行时去Club Orange找比特币爱好者是首选。
It's my go to place to find Bitcoiners whenever I'm traveling.
Club Orange是一个为比特币爱好者打造的社交应用，你可以找到本地的聚会和活动，以及接受比特币的商家。
Club Orange is a social app built for Bitcoiners where you can find local meetups and events in your area and find merchants that are accepting Bitcoin.
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上面有超过一万九千名比特币用户，无论你是在家还是旅行，都是与全球比特币爱好者保持联系的好地方。
There are over 19,000 Bitcoiners on there, and whether you're at home or traveling, it's a great place to keep in touch with Bitcoiners from all over the world.
自从Orange Pill应用时期我就在使用Club Orange，它真的非常棒。
I've been using Club Orange since it was Orange Pill app, and it really is awesome.
所以如果你在上面，给我发个私信打个招呼吧。
So if you're on there, drop me a DM and say hi.
如果你想了解更多并下载应用，只需在App Store搜索Club Orange，或访问cluborange.org。
And if you wanna find out more and download the app, just search for Club Orange on your App Store or go to club orange dot org.
如果你已经自己保管比特币，那你一定了解硬件钱包的那些事。
If you're already self custody of Bitcoin, you know the deal with hardware wallets.
复杂的设置、笨拙的界面，还有可能丢失、被盗或遗忘的助记词。
Complex setups, clumsy interfaces, and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen, or forgotten.
而BitKey解决了这些问题。
Well, BitKey fixes that.
BitKey是由Square和Cash App团队打造的多重签名硬件钱包。
BitKey is a multisig hardware wallet built by the team behind Square and Cash App.
它内置了加密恢复系统和继承功能，是一款直观易用的钱包，无需为助记词担惊受怕。
It packs a cryptographic recovery system and built in inheritance feature into an intuitive, easy to use wallet with no sea phrase to sweat over.
它实现了简单而安全的自托管，且无压力，《时代》杂志将BitKey评为2024年最佳发明之一。
It's simple, secure self custody without the stress, and Time named BitKey one of the best inventions of 2024.
在 bitkey.world 使用代码 w b d 可享受八折优惠。
Get 20% off at bitkey.world when you use the code w b d.
访问 bitkey.world 并使用代码 w b d。
That's bitkey.world and use the code w b d.
本集由 Anchor Watch 赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch.
让我夜不能寐的是我的比特币冷钱包出现严重故障的可能性，而这就是 Anchor Watch 的用武之地。
The thing that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin cold storage, and this is where Anchor Watch comes in.
通过 Anchor Watch，您的比特币将由您自己投保的A+评级伦敦劳合社保单提供保障，所有比特币均存放在其时间锁定的多重签名保险库中。
With Anchor Watch, your Bitcoin is insured with your own a plus rated Lloyd's of London insurance policy, and all Bitcoin is held in their time locked multisig vaults.
因此，您可以在不放弃控制权的情况下，安心知道您的比特币已获得保险。
So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin is insured while not giving up custody.
因此，无论你担心的是遗产规划、勒索攻击、自然灾害，还是自己的一些愚蠢错误，Anchor Watch 都能为你提供保障。
So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, rent attacks, natural disasters, or just your own silly mistakes, you're protected by Anchor Watch.
全额保险托管的费率低至0.55%，面向美国境内的个人和企业客户开放。
Rates for fully insured custody start as low as point 55% and are available for individual and commercial customers located in The US.
联系 AnchorWatch 获取报价，并了解你的安全选项和保障详情。
Speak to AnchorWatch for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage.
今天就访问 anchorwatch.com。
Visit anchorwatch.com today.
那就是 anchorwatch.com。
That is anchorwatch.com.
雷·达利奥显然具有巨大的影响力。
Ray Dalio is obviously insanely influential.
这并不是什么完全新颖的观点。
It's not like this is completely a novel take.
人们早就一直在这么说。
People have been saying this for a long time.
只是他是个很多人会听从的人。
It's just he's he's someone that a lot of people listen to.
你觉得过去大约十八个月黄金价格的飙升，是否意味着市场认为一场重组即将来临？
Do you think gold absolutely ripping over the last sort of eighteen months has been the market saying that a reordering is is, like, on the horizon?
我不这么认为，我的意思是，我个人不这么觉得。
I don't I mean, I don't I personally don't think so.
当然，说‘是’很容易，因为所有这些事情都在黄金价格上涨的同时发生。
Like, again, it would be easy to say yes because Because all of these things are happening at the same time while the price of gold is rising.
但过去五年，或者说三到五年间，俄罗斯一直在积累黄金。
But for the last five years or three to five years, Russia's been accumulating gold.
中国也一直在积累黄金。
China's been accumulating gold.
是的。
The yeah.
2022年，‘3无。'
In 2022, '3 no.
我想四年前，俄罗斯——我不确定俄罗斯被切断SWIFT系统的确切时间，但那场战争大约是在2022年这个时候爆发的。
I guess four years ago, Russia I don't know exactly when Russia was cut off cut off swift, but that that war started around this time in 2022.
是的。
Yeah.
俄罗斯并没有突然崩溃。
And Russia didn't spontaneously collapse.
你知道，他们找到了绕开制裁进行贸易的方法。
You know, they figured out a way to to to trade around it.
当俄罗斯能够摆脱美元体系时，美元也没有突然崩溃。
The dollar also didn't spontaneous collapse when Russia was able to to navigate off of it.
所以我认为，这更多是货币濒临危机的一种表现——当我说到濒临崩溃时，我不是说它下个月就会崩盘。
And so I think that it's more of a symptom of the currency being on the brink of like, when I say being on the brink of failure, it's like, I'm not saying it's gonna collapse next month.
我的意思是，它正在朝那个方向发展。
I'm saying it's it's heading down that path.
当购买黄金和白银的零售热情达到如今这种程度时，这就像是魏玛德国的景象，因为每个人都在金融资产和衍生品上投机。
And when, you know, buying gold and silver has reached the the retail fervor that it has, that's like, it has Weimar Germany vibes because everyone is speculators in financial assets and derivatives.
区别在于你说，嘿。
The distinguishment because you say, well, hey.
这和比特币是一样的。
That's the same thing as Bitcoin.
在我看来，投机黄金或美元，抱歉，是投机黄金和白银以获取更多美元、更多卢布或更多日元作为通胀对冲，与真正识别出一个切实可行的解决方案，这两者是有区别的。
It's like, the way that I look at it is there's a difference between speculating in gold or dollars or sorry, in gold and silver to get more dollars, to get get more ruble or to get more yen as an inflation hedge versus actually identifying the one thing that can practically be a solution.
我并不是完全否定某些人相信的观点，比如彼得·希夫认为我们会回归金本位。
And I'm not closing out that there are certain people I believe that, yeah, Peter Schiff is somebody who looks at goals as we're going back to a gold standard.
对吧？
Right?
但也有这种情况，他本人不会承认，绝大多数交易黄金的人其实是为了赚取更多美元。
But there's also and he and he won't admit this that the vast majority of people that are trading gold are trading to get more dollars.
现在举个例子，这个例子与任何地缘政治对手都没有关系，或者至少今天没有，我根本不会这样描述。
Now an example that's not a geopolitical foe of anyone, or at least not today, really, is or I wouldn't describe it this way at all.
但Tether就是这样一个例子。
But Tether was somebody.
他们购买了实物黄金。
They they bought physical gold.
所以，他们显然不只是为了赚取更多美元而交易黄金。
So they they they apparently weren't just trading in it to get more dollars.
他们真正想要的是持有储备。
They actually wanted to hold the reserves.
我只是想说，黄金价格上涨，或者人们转向比特币、黄金等商品货币，是因为认为货币正在贬值，这更多是关于货币本身，而不是世界秩序的崩溃——虽然我并不喜欢这个词，但其实就是指全球金融体系是美元化的。
I would just say that, like, gold rising or people turning to Bitcoin, gold, commodity monies with the thought process that currencies are being debased is about the currency, And it's it's less about the collapse of the world order because the world order and I kind of hate the term, but it's just like the the financial system is is dollarized.
美元以及美国经济，更准确地说，是全球美元经济在跨境贸易中的规模，远超其他任何体系。
And the dollar and the The US economy, but the dollar economy globally, the the cross border trade, dwarfs any other system.
如果真的发生美元崩溃，黄金和比特币在一段时间内都会被抛售。
In in the event of an actual dollar collapse, things like gold and Bitcoin for a period of time will be sold.
所有信贷资产都会被抛售。
Every credit asset will be sold.
所有股票都会被抛售，因为届时会出现对美元的挤兑，毕竟全球存在巨额美元债务。
Every equity will be sold because there will actually be a run on dollars because there's so much dollar debt that exists.
最终，美元将经历超级通胀，所有人都会转向比特币并抛售黄金。
And eventually, the dollar will hyperinflate, and everyone will migrate over to Bitcoin and sell their gold.
但我觉得，我其实没必要解释得这么详细。
But, like, I would explain it less.
比如，雷·达利奥在同一时间发表这样的评论，而当时正值人们对与伊朗开战的担忧加剧，欧洲与俄罗斯、美国与中国之间的紧张关系升级，黄金价格随之上涨。
I, like, basically, maybe, like, Ray Dalio making this comment at the same time that there's fear of going to war with Iran and heightened tension between Europe and Russia and US and China and then gold going up.
在我看来，这就像是一种被随机性愚弄的现象——你可以随便挑出其中任何一个因素，说黄金上涨是因为那个原因。
It's like, to me, it feels like a fool by randomness thing where it's like, you could you could you could pick any one of those things out and say, this is going up because of that.
而从本质上讲，其实是美元在贬值，因为美元存款增加了。
And at the underlying side, it's like, well, know, the dollar's devaluing because there's more dollar deposits.
尽管美联储目前没有创造更多的基础货币，但美元存款、欧元存款或日元存款却在不断增加。
Even though the Fed isn't creating more base money at the moment, there's more and more dollar deposits or more and more euro deposits or more and more yen deposits.
归根结底，问题出在货币本身。
And it's the currency stupid.
你知道的。
You know?
而且，全球秩序和全球贸易体系及既有合作关系的瓦解，可能才是货币贬值的根本原因。
And it's like and then maybe the fracturing of the the global order and the global trade systems and and partnerships that existed breaking down might might, you know, be underlying about the currency losing its value.
所以我不是说这和那个没关系。
So I'm not saying it's not related to that.
只是它恰好发生在了一个容易归因的时机。
It's just that it's coinciding at a time that's easy to stick it to.
而且，你知道，两年前你就可以这么说。
And it's like, you know, but you could have said that two years ago.
对吧？
Right?
想象一下同样的情况。
Imagine the same thing.
比如，中国在积极购买黄金，俄罗斯也在积极购买黄金。
Like, China's actively buying gold and Russia's actively buying gold.
那为什么金价当时没涨呢？
Well, why wasn't the price going up?
对吧？
Right?
当时世界秩序不是也在瓦解吗？
Like, what was the was the world order not fracturing then?
你知道的。
You know?
所以现在黄金价格确实在上涨。
So it's like, yes, goals going up now.
是的。
Yes.
世界秩序正在瓦解。
The world the the order in the world is fracturing.
但货币也在失去价值。
But it's also just the currency is losing its value.
黄金也是如此，是的。
It's like so as is gold go yeah.
你可以这么说，就像股市上涨时他们印钞一样，当时你也可以这么说。
Like, you could basically, you could have said the same when the stock market went up because they printed one.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道吗，这是世界秩序正在崩溃的迹象吗？
You know, is this a sign of the world order falling apart?
没人想持有现金。
No one wants to be in cash.
他们想要股票。
They want equities.
所以我觉得，把这一切归因于这一点太简单了。
And so I just I think it's easy to to point it to that.
更合理的解释是，人们只是想摆脱美元。
And the more logical thing is just people are trying to get out of the dollar.
你知道吗？
You know?
很多人这么做是因为他们生活艰难，不得不通过投机来试图保持领先。
And a lot of them are doing it for reasons that they're struggling to get by, and they need to speculate in something to try to stay ahead.
而在另一些情况下，是的，你知道，中国和俄罗斯正在摆脱美元，因为他们不想被美元霸权所束缚，这也很合理。
And then in others, yeah, you know, China and Russia are diversifying away from the dollar because they don't want to be tied to the dollar hegemony, and that that also is rational.
但还有一种更高层次的因素在主导着这种分裂。
But there's something at a higher order that's dictating the the the the fracture.
是的。
Yeah.
这很有道理。
That makes sense.
我有个问题要问你，这个问题几乎无法回答，但我还是要问。
I I've got a question for you that is pretty much impossible to answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway.
你说美元的法币体系正在崩溃，这一点我完全同意，但这是一个过程，而不是一个事件，我认为。
Like, you say that sort of the dollar fiat is failing, which which I totally agree with, but it it's a process, not an event, I think.
它不会明天就崩溃。
Like, it's not gonna fail tomorrow.
嗯，这会是一个事件，它不会明天就崩溃。
Well, it will it will be an event, it's not gonna fail tomorrow.
好的。
Okay.
但我之所以说这是一个过程，是因为你可能会说美元从2008年就开始衰落了。
You so but the reason I say it's a process is because, like, you could probably say the dollar started failing in 2008.
你或许可以挑出很多不同的时间点，但2008年可能是一个合理的选项。
You could probably pick a load of different dates, but that might be one that you could pick.
你觉得它还能撑多久？
How long do you think it can last?
我不知道。
I don't know.
市场保持非理性状态的时间，可能比你撑得住的时间还要长。
Markets stay markets can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
就我个人而言，很难相信它还能再持续十年。
Personally, it's hard for me to believe that it goes on for another ten years.
我得出这个结论的部分方式是思考比特币和比特币的采用。
Part of the way that I get there is thinking about Bitcoin and Bitcoin adoption.
但另一方面，也许我关注的一个例子是委内瑞拉。
But also, you know, maybe one one thing that I look at is Venezuela.
这是我经常用到的一个例子。
Like an example that I use.
很多人想谈论委内瑞拉因为制裁而出现恶性通胀。
That a lot of times people wanna talk about, you know, Venezuela hyperinflated because of sanctions.
这完全是荒谬的。
And that's just like totally farcical.
委内瑞拉的恶性通胀是因为印钞。
Venezuela hyperinflated because of money printing.
真正开始限制委内瑞拉出售石油能力的制裁，我认为是在2019年或2020年。
The the the the sanctions that actually, like, started cutting off Venezuela abilities to sell oil was in, I believe, 2019 or 2020.
通用汽车这家公司，总部位于美国的汽车制造商，曾在委内瑞拉有业务。
GM as a a company, GM, the auto manufacturer that's based in The United States, they had operations in Venezuela.
他们在2013年，我认为，记减了他们在委内瑞拉的资产。
And they in 2013, I believe they they, like, wrote down their their Venezuelan boulevards.
因为如果你想想通用汽车在委内瑞拉的业务，通用汽车当时在该国拥有汽车制造业务。
Because if you if you think about GM's operations, GM had auto manufacturing in the country of Venezuela.
他们不是仅仅从美国向委内瑞拉出口汽车。
They weren't just exporting cars from The United States to Venezuela.
他们进口零部件，并在委内瑞拉组装通用汽车。
They were importing parts and building GM vehicles in Venezuela.
他们持有玻利瓦尔，以便能够进行交易。
And they were they were holding boulevards to be able to yeah.
他们接受玻利瓦尔作为购车的现金支付。
They they were they were accepting boulevards as as cash for cars.
他们支付玻利瓦尔。
They were paying out boulevards.
然后他们持有外汇储备，因为他们必须将玻利瓦尔兑换成美元，以向他们主要位于美国的制造商采购零部件。
And then they had FX reserves because they were having to convert boulevards to dollars to buy parts from their manu you know, largely US based manufacturers.
他们是在2013年首次将委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔减值，大约减了10%到20%。
Well, they wrote down I think they've they first marked down their Venezuelan boulevards in 2013 by, like, 10% or 20%.
然后第二年，我可能记错了一年。
And then the next year and I might have it off by one year.
可能是2014年第一次减值，2015年是下一年；或者2013年是第一次，2014年是下一年。
It might be, like, 14 was the first year and 15 was the next year or 13 was the first year and 14 was next.
第二年，他们把价值直接减到了100%。
And the second year, they they wrote it down a 100%.
99%。
99.
如果你去谷歌搜索委内瑞拉何时开始恶性通胀，会看到说是2016年或2017年。
And then if you Google when did hyperinflation start in Venezuela, it was it'll say, like, 2016 or 2017.
所以，在通用汽车彻底减记所有玻利瓦尔并不得不离开该国之前，已经过去了好几年，因为他们无法再继续生产汽车。
So multiple years before GM wrote down all of their boulevards and literally had to leave the country because they couldn't continue to manufacture cars.
他们关闭了所有业务。
They shut down their operations.
在委内瑞拉真正进入恶性通胀之前，这段时间里，其货币相对于美元已经贬值了50%，持续了三到四年。
And over that period of time before Venezuela actually entered hyperinflation, their currency had devalued by 50% against the dollar over over, like, three or four years.
而且，在美国，你所需购买的许多东西——尤其是食品——在过去四五年里价格上涨了40%到50%以上。
And a lot of things that you need to at least in The United States that you need to purchase, particularly food, have over the last four to five years lost 40 to you know, things are are more than 50% more expensive.
所以，这其中存在一些相似之处。
And so it's like there are parallels.
现在，我并不一定认为三年后就会出现恶性通胀。
Now, I don't necessarily think that, you know, three years from there, there's gonna be hyperinflation.
但如果你观察一些数据指标，比如股市，像道琼斯指数这样的指标，看到这些极其成熟的企业股价出现了这种曲棍球棒式的飙升。
But if you're looking at data points of, like, what types of things happen, like looking at the stock market, like a an index like the Dow and seeing it have this hockey stick, these incredibly mature companies.
对吧？
Right?
这些可不是现金流快速增长的初创科技公司，而是看到它们的估值开始模仿当年魏玛德国可能发生的情况。
These aren't startup tech companies that, you know, have huge ramps in cash flow, but, like, seeing their valuations start to to mimic what might have been happening in Weimar Germany, as an example.
这就像墙上的文字一样明示了征兆。
It's like the writings on those that wall.
当我展望未来时，因为这将是一个事件。
And then when I think forward to, like because because it will be an event.
当人们对货币失去信心时，就会出现一个关键时刻，那时货币会变得足够动荡，导致大量企业倒闭，进而扰乱供应链，使超市货架上的食品开始变得稀缺。
Like, there there will be a moment when confidence is lost in the currency, And that is that is likely at a point where the the currency starts to get sufficiently volatile that it causes a bunch of businesses to go out of business, which then disrupt supply chains, which then causes things like food on the grocery shelves to become start to become sparse.
因此，如果你把货币问题的这一面看作独立的，然后说，比特币虽然价格下跌了，但其市值仍介于13400亿美元到2万亿美元之间。
And so if you think about that as one side of the currency problems independent, and then you say, here, Bitcoin is, yeah, it's traded down, but between, you know, 1,340,000,000,000.00 to 2,000,000,000,000 in value.
如果我们展望十年后，世界变得更加混乱，人们试图弄清楚：最终的结局会是什么？
And we go out ten ten years of a world becoming more disordered and people trying to figure out, well, what what's the end game here?
答案是什么？
What's the answer?
我认为，在比特币再经历两次减半、加上人类与生俱来的生存本能作用下，我看不到其他可能性——因为达利奥文章的结尾基本上是说：
Then I don't see how with two more full halvings in Bitcoin and just this natural survival instinct of people because, like, at the end of Dalio's piece, he was basically like, hey.
世界正在崩坏。
You know, the world's going to shit.
你或许该考虑别再持有债券了。
You might wanna think about not being in bonds.
就像是，你知道的，也许可以想想黄金。
It's like, you know, maybe think about gold.
但当人们深入探究因果关系时，他们会意识到黄金也有同样的问题。
But but as people follow the the the rabbit hole of the cause and effect, they'll realize that that gold has the same problem.
这一切都始于布雷顿森林体系下的黄金。
Like, all of this started with gold in in Bretton Woods.
而且，即使你回到金币时代，一方面，这极其低效；另一方面，金币是以某个国家的货币铸造的，人们不得不来回兑换。
And, you know, even if you went back to gold coins, one, it's incredibly inefficient, but two, it's like it's coined in some some country's currency that that people are having to to trade back and forth.
所以他们最终都会发现比特币。
And so they they all will figure out Bitcoin.
而且我再次强调，这不是一种二元对立。
And I again, not a dimerism.
我不希望这种情况发生。
I don't want it to happen.
我只是在观察并说：嘿。
I'm just looking out and saying, hey.
如果未来十年比特币的采用率增长十倍——我认为这已经是很保守的估计了——那么它将成为全球第二大货币体系。
If Bitcoin adoption increased by 10 times over the next ten years, which I view to be conservative, then it it becomes the clearly the second largest currency system in the world.
一旦它明确成为全球第二大货币体系，你就根本不需要成为最大的那个了。
And once it becomes clearly the second largest currency system in the world, it's like you don't even need to become the biggest.
人们会意识到，趋势已经非常明显，共识会自然形成：当比特币规模超过欧元、并明显超过黄金时——其实我并不把黄金视为一个货币体系——在那个上升过程中，比特币将经历一次快速的货币化。
People will like, the writing will be on the wall enough of a consensus will happen that somewhere in that point of that ascension from, like, being larger than the euro and clearly being larger than gold, which I don't really think about gold's currency system, that everyone there'll be a there'll be a a rapid monetization of Bitcoin that happens at that time.
我不试图去精确预测它具体会在什么时候发生。
I don't try to I don't think exactly when it happens.
你知道的吗？
You know?
对我来说，它不会在二十年后才发生。
Like, to me, it doesn't happen in in twenty in twenty years.
很好。
Great.
那将是非常了不起的。
That would be that would be phenomenal.
你知道的？
You know?
我只是在解释它为什么会朝这个方向发展，以及背后的原因，也就是说，我看待问题的方式是：要适应所有季节、所有天气。
I'm just explaining the cause and effect of of where and why it's going that way so that, you know, the way I think about it is survive in all seasons, all weathers.
如果你知道，是的。
If you know Yeah.
了解它将去向何方、为何如此，以及为何它不会回到像黄金那样的体系，为什么今天所有这些问题都源于黄金。
Where it's going and why and why it might not go back to something like gold and why all of these problems that exist today started with gold.
你真的认为，所有这些问题——如果你无法思考，为什么我们会走到今天这个美元的境地，而它最初却是从黄金开始的？
Like, you really think that all these problems, if you if you can't if you can't think about why did all of the why did we get to the dollar as it is when it started with gold?
那么，你怎么会不联想到：如果你从零开始，重新来过，你会做出什么不同的选择？
Then then, like, how are you not connecting of, like, well, if you just if you just tried to go back to ground zero and started over, it's like, what would you do differently?
而且，这不正是它最终必然会走向的逻辑终点吗？
And isn't this the logical place that it ends anyways?
对吧？
Right?
如果是这样，你就不能回到黄金了。
And if that's the case, then you can't go back to gold.
你必须转向一种真正解决导致法币体系出现的问题的方案——比如黄金在结算、安全性上的不足，以及运输黄金的困难，这正是黄金结算的难点所在。举个例子，如果你考虑美国和中国之间的贸易，想象一下每次货船航行时都必须实际结算实物黄金。
You have to go to something that actually solves the problem that caused the fiat system to need you know, caused the fiat system to emerge to solve gaps in settlement, security of gold, the difficulty of transporting gold, which is part of the difficulty of settling gold, you know, over you know, if you're thinking about The US trading with China, and imagine you had to actually settle physical gold every time a ship moved across.
你可以这么做，但黄金会一直停留在一个地方。
You could do that, but the gold's sitting in one place.
它就停在某一岸。
It's sitting on one shore.
你可能会说，那我们把它放在欧洲吧，因为我们彼此不信任，但这样一来，它又只是停留在欧洲。
And you might say, well, we'll put it in Europe because, you know, we don't trust each other, but then it's sitting in Europe.
对吧？
Right?
它就放在某人的海岸边，存放在金库中，因为把黄金物理性地跨国运输成本太高了。
It's sitting in you know, it's sitting on someone's shores and moving in a vault because the moving it physically between countries is too costly.
那么，如果它只是躺在金库里，你可能就不需要在上面再叠加一个法币计价体系，但本质上，你还是建立了一个基于零和一的法币金融系统。
And then what what is that if it's sitting in a vault, you know, you might not have need to have a fiat denomination on top of it, but you essentially have a fiat system, financial system built on top to do all the zeros and ones.
然后你会说：不行。
And you're like, nope.
我们不会回到那种方式了。
That we're not going back to that.
我们要转向这样一种方式：嘿。
We're going to the thing where, hey.
如果美国和中国进行贸易，你们可以发送比特币。
If The US is trading with China, you can you can send Bitcoin.
任何进行贸易的人都可以发送比特币。
Anybody who's trading can send Bitcoin.
他们可以在自己的国家里安全地存储它。
They can secure it in their country.
当他们准备从我们或其他人那里购买东西时，就把比特币发过去。
You know, when they're ready to buy something from us or somebody else, they send it there.
他们通过这种方式解决了黄金如何安全存储的问题。
They're securing you you solve the problem of how gold is secured.
或者不仅是如何保障黄金，还有如何结算贸易。
Or not only how gold is secured, how trade is settled.
你拥有更坚实的贸易基础。
You have a greater basis of trade.
并不是说一切都其乐融融。
Not to say it's all Kumbaya.
我们当然不是生活在乌托邦，但你确实有了更好的机会，更稳固的贸易基础。
We're not living in utopia, but there you have a better shot, better basis of trade.
你不太可能轰炸你的贸易伙伴，或者至少可能性更低。
You're not likely to bomb your trade partner, or you're less likely to.
是的。
Yeah.
所以雷·达利奥在那些文章中给出的可操作建议是：卖出黄金。
So it the the, like, actionable advice that Ray Dalio gives in the pieces, sell that by gold.
显然，黄金并不是唯一的选择。
And clearly, gold is not the only option.
我们认为比特币是更好的选择。
We think Bitcoin is a better option.
但对于像彼得·希夫这样的黄金拥护者来说，他显然对比特币一无所知，但他是个聪明人。
But for the gold bugs, like the Peter Schiffs of the world, who is he's obviously clueless on Bitcoin, but, like, he's he's a smart guy.
我很喜欢他的很多其他录音。
Like, I I quite like a lot of his other tapes.
你为什么认为他们没有充分重视货币层面的问题？他们难道没意识到，如果回到金本位，实际上只是重新创造了法币吗？
Why don't you think they put enough weight on the sort currency side of things, and they don't see that if you go back to a gold standard, you kind of just de facto create fiat again?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我的意思是，就彼得·希夫而言，我认为这是因为我不了解这个人。
I mean, I I in in Peter Schiff's case, I think that it's because, like, I I don't know the guy.
他看起来像是个挺不错的普通人。
He seems like a decently fine human being.
但当你对问题的判断一直很准，却误诊了解决方案，你就变得有偏见，只是在克服这种负面心理。
But when you've been so right about the problems and you've misdiagnosed the solution that you're biased and just overcoming the negative psychology of it.
理性的人会说，这是沉没成本谬误。
The rational person would say, It's a sunk cost fallacy.
对吧？
Right?
但在他的情况下——我认为这并不适用于大多数人——这就是比特币胜出的原因，因为他自身的性格形成了偏见。
But in his case, which I don't think that is the case of the majority of people, which is why Bitcoin wins, is because he has a bias built around his own personality.
他围绕它建立了生意。
He's got businesses built around it.
要退出一个立场并积累比特币并不容易，让我把这句话说完。
It is not easy to exit a position and accumulate Bitcoin or and anyway or or let me just finish that thought.
积累比特币，然后告诉全世界：嘿。
Accumulate Bitcoin and then tell the entire world, hey.
我关于黄金的看法是错的。
I was wrong about gold.
现在拉里·拉帕德是从黄金世界过来的人，虽然我仍然认为你应该持有黄金，但我相信比特币会胜出。
Now Larry Lapard is someone who's, like, gone from the gold world and basically, like, I still think you should own gold, but I think that Bitcoin's gonna win.
在他看来，他并不一定说比特币会胜出而黄金会失败。
And, you know, in in his mind, he doesn't necessarily say Bitcoin's gonna win and and gold's gonna be a loser.
我认为，逻辑上的结论是，这并不意味着拉里同意或不同意。
I think that that, you know, the logical conclusion, not saying that, you know, Larry agrees or disagrees.
但这里有一个区别，我认为这是理性世界与像彼得·希夫这样的人之间的差异，他不仅长期倡导黄金，而且他的银行、企业以及一切都被绑定在黄金最终胜利的结局上。
But there's a difference between that, which I think is is is the rational world versus someone like Peter Schiff, who's, you know, not just been somebody who's advocated for gold, but has banks and businesses and, you know, everything tied to to that endgame happening.
这样的人会越来越少。
And there are there are going to be fewer of those people.
对吧？
Right?
举个例子，当全世界都实行金本位时，中国却采用了银本位。
Like, one example I would give is when the whole world was going on the gold standard, China went on the silver standard.
所以，人们确实可能选错。
And so it's like, people can choose wrong.
然后你可以从两个角度来看待这个问题。
And then they can have you know, you can look at it two ways.
他们的财富可能被剥夺，或者他们的购买力可能下降。
They can have their wealth expropriated from them, or they can they can have their purchasing power decline.
《比特币标准》一书中有一句引言。
There's a quote in the Bitcoin standard.
我想大概是这样的，具体怎么说来着？
I think it's something along this the the lines of you can't what is it?
大概是说，你无法通过使用比别人更弱的货币来保护自己。
Something it's along the lines of you can't insulate or protect yourself from somebody else using a harder currency than yours.
这正是我们当前在比特币和黄金之间所面临的情况。
And that's what that's what we're dealing with with Bitcoin and gold.
我所说的不仅仅是供应上限。
And I'm not just talking about the supply cap.
还有其他使它成为更优越结算网络的特性。
It's the other properties that make it a superior settlement rail.
更快的结算，比如可检验性。
Faster settlement, like ability to assay.
对。
Right.
如果有人拿起黄金和比特币，仔细观察两者，会发现最终只能选其一。
Like if somebody looks if if anybody picks up gold in Bitcoin and looks at them both like, shit, it's going to be one of these two.
然后他们从底层开始分析。
And they and they bottom up it.
最终他们会选择比特币。
They they end up at Bitcoin.
那个，你知道的，就是我。
That, you know, that was me.
我最初必须理解为什么黄金是货币，以及它是如何演变成货币的。
Like, and and where I first had to understand why gold was money and why it had emerged.
然后我用同样的视角来看比特币，你就是在比较A和B，把它们放在一起对比，结果就变得相当清晰、很容易理解。
And then then I was looking at Bitcoins through the same lens and you're you're, you know, a versus b, and you stack them up and it it becomes fairly clear fairly easily.
而且，你知道，Safdine Amuse最近在萨尔瓦多和彼得·希夫进行了一场辩论。
And, you know, there's part of that that say Safdine Amuse had a debate with Peter Schiff in El Salvador recently.
而且，他谈到了这些差异中的许多方面。
And, you know, he talks about a number of of those differences.
我只是认为，理性思维最终会得出这个结论。
And I just think that the the rational mind ends up there.
而且，有人必须决定如何储存每一单位的价值。
And, you know, someone someone has to choose how they're gonna store each unit of value.
你可以两者都用，但每个人都会被激励去最大化自己未来的购买力。
And you can do it in both, but everyone's max everyone is incentivized to maximize their purchasing power going forward.
所以我觉得，这就像彼得·希夫无法看清这一点，因为他太固执了。
So I just think I think it's like not having the ability to see it in Peter Schiff's case because he's so wed.
他对问题的判断非常正确，但现在却固守着他当初预测的解决方案。
He was so right about the problems, and now he's so wed to what he was forecasting to be the solution.
你可能会犯错。
You you can be wrong.
中国在采用银本位制上犯了错误，现在又在购买黄金。
China was wrong about going on the silver standard, and now they're buying gold.
你知道吗？
You know?
而这正是问题的另一面。
And, like, that's the other side of this.
他们又错了。
Like, they're wrong again.
你知道吗？
You know?
如果你预测一个超级大国正在崛起，而美国在衰落，中国将成为新的超级大国，那他们可能选错了货币方向，这或许正是他们整个战略的弱点。
And that's that's that's that that might be why they you know, if you were forecasting that there's a superpower that rises and that the The US is declining and China's gonna be the new superpower, it's like, maybe they're making the wrong currency bet, and maybe that is the weakness of their whole strategy.
这简直就像把彼得·施夫这样的黄金信徒，和某个法定货币狂热者相比——在这种情况中，彼得·施夫反而更令人沮丧，因为他几十年来90%的判断都是对的，却在最后一道门槛上绊倒了，没有转向比特币。
It's almost like if you had to compare, like, a Peter Schiff Goldbug to some Fiat Maxi person, it's almost more frustrating to be Peter Schiff in that situation where if we're right, Schiff has been 90% right for decades and then just got the last hurdle, just tripped at the last hurdle and didn't move to Bitcoin.
他们最终可能会以同样的价格买入比特币。
Like, they might end up buying Bitcoin at the same price.
你为什么
Why do you
你觉得比特币，如果我们在这里说的都是对的——我相信确实是这样——为什么比特币仍然像科技股一样交易，现在价格是67,000美元？
think Bitcoin like, if everything we're saying here is true, which I I believe it to be, why do you think Bitcoin is still trading like a tech stock and we're at, like, $67,000 now?
这看起来严重严重地被低估了。
Like, that seems deeply, deeply undervalued.
这难道只是我们和世界其他地方之间的信息不对称吗？
Is it is this just like a information asymmetry between us and the rest of the world?
我不是说，如果你看看比特币，觉得所有这些都属实。
It's not that I would say that if if you look at Bitcoin and you say, hey, all these things are true.
当比特币是8,000美元并跌到4,000美元时，这些事实就存在了；当比特币是69,000美元并跌到16,000美元时，这些事实也存在；当比特币是122,000美元时，这些事实依然成立，为什么？
Well, they were true when Bitcoin was $8,000 and crashed to $4,000 They were true when Bitcoin was $69,000 and crashed to $16,000 They were true at 122,000 and why?
今天比特币在66,000美元或别的价格时，这些事实依然成立。
And they're still true today at 66,000 or whoever it is.
所以我认为，解释这一点的原因是：价格就是记分牌。
And so I think that the explanation for that is like price is the scoreboard.
对吧？
Right?
但比特币之所以波动大，是因为它难以理解。
But Bitcoin is volatile because it's difficult to understand.
这让我想起几年前我做过一次演讲，讨论为什么比特币不是一种对冲工具。
And I would liken this very much to when I I gave a talk a few years ago about, like, why Bitcoin is not a hedge.
我最近在同一场合又做了一次同样的演讲。
Like, and I gave a I gave a recent talk in the same venue.
是那个在Unchained YouTube上爆火的视频吗？
Is that the one that went, like, viral on the Unchained YouTube?
观看量特别高。
It was the huge views.
是的。
Yeah.
那场演讲太棒了。
That was an awesome talk.
我当时做了那个演讲，解释说：看，通货膨胀正在发生，而比特币价格却在下跌。
And I and I gave that talk if I explained like, hey, there's inflation happening and Bitcoin's coming down.
这难道不是自相矛盾的吗？
Like, isn't this isn't this contradictory?
但实际上，这完全说得通。
And it's like, It's perfectly explained.
现在的情况也是一样的。
And and the same thing is true now.
就像两个月前，我在同一个场合做了一次演讲。
Like, I gave a presentation at the same venue, like, two months ago.
我真希望我当时做了这个演示。
And the I wish I had done it.
我真希望现在就能做，比如比特币在66000美元的时候。
Like, I wish I could have done it right now, like, you know, with Bitcoin at 66.
因为这其实是一回事。
Because it's the same thing.
就像是，嘿。
It's like, hey.
世界正变得越来越混乱，而你却说比特币是解决这个问题的答案，但它却在下跌。
The world is becoming increasingly disordered, and you're saying that Bitcoin is supposed to be the the answer to that, but it's going down.
它应该上涨才对。
It should be going up.
就像是，你得理解比特币。
It's like, well, you have to understand Bitcoin.
你得先理解这一点，然后等到世界事件发生，再买入它。
You have to understand that and then have the the world event happen and then buy it.
对吧？
Right?
如果你不了解通货膨胀的解释，比如你不知道比特币为何是通货膨胀的解决方案，以及为什么它是长期的解决方案——不是未来五天或十天内，而是它如何真正永久性地解决货币超发的问题。
And if you don't know, like, the in the explanation of inflation, like, if you don't know that Bitcoin is the solution for inflation and why, like the long term one, not the in the next five days or ten days, but why it actually permanently solves the problem of money printing.
然后你去超市，发现物价飞涨，你靠工资过活，每天都为生计焦虑，却没能把这两件事联系起来。
And then you're going to the grocery store and shit's getting real bad for you, and you're living paycheck to paycheck, and you're constantly stressed about it, you don't you're not putting those two and two together.
对吧？
Right?
这个世界也是一样，战火频发，一场大战接着一场。
Same thing with this world's on fire, one large war at risk after another.
如果你看不到比特币与这些事件的关联，那你怎么能把这些事情联系起来呢？
Well, if you don't see the connection to Bitcoin, then how do you how do you put those those things together?
这正是在最高层正在发生的事情。
And that's that's what's happening at the the highest level.
但在宏观或微观层面，人们正在。
But at a mac or at a micro level, people are.
对吧？
Right?
现在很多人正在购买比特币，并突然醒悟，因为四年前，他们第一次听到有人说，比如拉什被Swift封杀，而比特币正是对此的解决方案。
Like, people right now are buying Bitcoin and having the light bulb go off because four years ago, they heard somebody talking about, for the first time, about, you know, Rush getting cut off of Swift and, you know, Bitcoin's the answer to that.
而现在，他们看到了雷·达利奥谈世界变得混乱的这篇文章。
And now they see this piece from Ray Dalio talking about a, you know, world becoming disordered.
他们说：‘没错，他说得对，但不是黄金，是比特币。’
And they're like, yeah, he's right, but it's not gold, it's Bitcoin.
他们正在把筹码放到桌上。
And they're they're putting their chips on the table.
然后比特币的底部会比之前更高，因为会有更多人明白这一点。
And then Bitcoin will bottom at a higher place than it did before because more people will figure it out.
所以，这并不是说比特币在技术上——我不是说它已经触底了。
And so and that doesn't mean for some technical reason that Bitcoin you know, I'm not saying that it already has bottomed.
我只是说，这种更高高点、更高低点的趋势并不重要，比如在2022年，它虽然突破了之前的高点，但随后又创下了更高的高点。
I'm just saying that the trend of that higher highs, higher lows, doesn't matter if, you know, in 2022 that it went through its prior high, then, you know, went far through its higher highs.
而这正是更多人逐渐理解的结果。
And that's a function of more people figuring it out.
但两件事可以同时为真。
But two things can be true at the same time.
更多人正在明白这一点。
More people are figuring it out.
这正在创造更高的均衡水平和更高的高点。
That's creating higher levels of equilibrium and higher highs.
真正理解正在发生什么的人非常少。
Very few people actually understand what's going on.
你知道证据是什么吗？
You know what the evidence of it is?
有70万枚比特币存放在策略基金中，还有70万枚比特币存放在IBET中。
There is 700,000 Bitcoin that's sitting in strategy, and there's 700,000 Bitcoin that are sitting in IBET.
如果你真正理解了当前的情况，我并不是说投资策略基金或投资IBET是坏事。
If you actually understood what's going and I'm not saying, you know, an investment in strategy or an investment in IBET is a bad thing.
就像，这些公司本身并不坏。
Like, the companies themselves are not bad.
它们没有任何问题。
Nothing nothing bad with them.
但如果你没有自己保管比特币，或者没有意识到，比如说iBit，其实你完全可以把比特币存在Coinbase上。
But if you're not self custodying Bitcoin or if you don't realize, like, say say iBit, like, you could just have your Bitcoin at Coinbase.
如果你把比特币存在iBit里，那么你的对手方风险会更高。
You have you have less counterparty risk than you do if it's sitting in iBit.
你选择购买的便利性，大概是因为你在交易它。
You you took the convenience of buying it probably because you're trading it.
这两个工具，尤其是iBit，都是缺乏认知的体现。
Like, those two vehicles, iBit more than strategy, are indicators of lack of knowledge.
我不是说它们是坏产品。
Not like they're good products.
它们是好公司。
They're good companies.
但你可以把你的比特币存在River里。
But, like, you could have your Bitcoin in River.
你可以把你的比特币存在Unchained里。
You could have your Bitcoin in Unchained.
你可以把你的比特币存在冷钱包里。
You could have your Bitcoin in a cold card.
你也可以把你的比特币存在Strike里。
You could have your Bitcoin in Strike.
你会更好受一些。
You'd be better off.
对吧？
Right?
不过，你知道的，所有这些对比特币来说都是好事。
And they're you know, everything's good for Bitcoin, though.
但我只是说，有很多人买了比特币。
But I'm just saying there's a lot of people that bought Bitcoin.
从我的角度来看，举办聚会、参加大会、和感兴趣的人交流、回应人们的咨询，我们从未经历过一波采用浪潮。
And from my vantage point, hosting meetups and going to conferences and talking to people that are interested, people reaching out, we never had a wave of adoption.
从来没有一大群人蜂拥而入，追逐价格。
Like, there was never a fervor of individuals that were rushing in that were, like, chasing price.
这种事情根本没发生过。
Like, that didn't happen.
所以认为周期之类的不会消失，其实是有道理的。
So to think that, like, you know, cycles like cycles are not dead.
人类的心理是一样的。
Human psychology is the same.
只是被随机性迷惑了。
It's just fooled by randomness.
关于目前价格为何如此，我的解释是，据Galaxy称，他们帮人卖出了8万枚比特币，那是本地的高点。
You know, my explanation for this where where prices are is, you know, reportedly according to Galaxy, they helped somebody sell 80,000 Bitcoin that was local top.
如果你有一群购买了比特币ETF但对比特币本身、持有或投机的真实原因了解不多的人，他们就会抛售。
And if you have a bunch of people that have bought the ETF that don't have a lot of knowledge, primary knowledge about Bitcoin, about the real reason to own it or speculate in, they sell it.
你知道，价格开始下跌。
You know, like, it starts to go down.
当比特币价格上涨时，买入很容易，因为上涨从心理上强化了你做出正确决定的感觉。
It's it's easy to buy Bitcoin when it's going up because when it goes up, psychologically reinforces that you made a good decision.
但如果你仍然只有有限的知识，而价格开始下跌，你的第一反应就是再买一点。
But if you're still sitting there with limited knowledge and it starts to go down, your first instinct is, like, buy a little bit more.
当价格进一步下跌时，你就开始恐慌，然后卖出。
And then when it goes down further, you start to panic and then you sell.
我们看到了威斯康星州养老基金的例子。
You know, we we saw the example of the Wisconsin state pension.
他们是在比特币大约6万美元时买入的，买了10个基点。
They bought Bitcoin when it was like about 60,000 and they bought 10 basis points.
迈克尔·塞拉有一句很棒的话：如果你理解比特币，你就不可能只持有1%。
Michael Saylor has this great quote, which is, if you understand Bitcoin, there's no chance that you that you only own 1%.
好吧，威斯康星州养老基金买的量只有这个的十分之一。
Okay, well, the Wisconsin State pension bought a tenth of that.
明白了。
Okay.
然后当价格上涨到10万美元时，他们卖掉了。
And then when it went up to 100, they sold it.
他们像往常一样重新平衡了投资组合，买了IBET。
They they rebalanced their portfolios like they and they bought IBET.
他们真的理解比特币吗？
Did they actually ever understand Bitcoin?
你知道吗，我自己曾经大力提倡，嘿，威斯康星州养老基金买了比特币。
You know, like I myself, I was championing, hey, you know, Wisconsin State Pension buys Bitcoin.
这很棒。
It's great.
但他们其实并不理解它，你知道吗？
They they didn't understand it, you know?
但你也有其他积极的案例，比如 Stake 和 Shake。
But then you have other markers that are they're very positive ones like stake and shake.
对吧？
Right?
他们真的懂。
Like, they get it.
你知道吗？
You know?
我是说，我不知道他们把比特币存在哪儿。
Like, not I I don't know where they hold their Bitcoin.
我其实也不关心。
Don't don't really care.
至少据我所知，他们并不拥有比特币。
They don't own either, at least not to my knowledge.
但我也知道，他们确实接受比特币作为货币。
But I also know just the fact that they're accepting it as money.
他们收到后并不会立即兑换成法币。
They're they're not converting what they receive.
他们主要是在直接购买比特币。
They're buying Bitcoin on a primary basis.
他们和Fold合作，为员工提供比特币奖励。
They're working with Fold to, you know, have a bonus for employees.
他们全面拥抱比特币，并将这种拥抱归因于他们的门店增长速度远超同行。
They're leaning full in to Bitcoin, and they're attributing their leaning into Bitcoin to their same store as growing fast far faster than any of their peers.
这并不是推动它的唯一因素，但他们自己正在主导这一趋势。
It's not the only thing that's driving it, but they themselves are directing it.
你可以观察到，这些人是在过去四年中的某个时候明白了这一点。
You can look at it and say, those people figured it out sometime in the last four years.
他们拥有的比特币数量可能远少于威斯康星州养老基金购买时的量。
And they probably own a lot less Bitcoin than, like, when the the Wisconsin state pension bought it.
我想他们买了大约1.6亿美元的比特币。
Think they bought, like, a $160,000,000.
他们拥有的比特币比Stake and Shake还多。
Like, they had more Bitcoin than stake and shake.
Stake and Shake明白了，他们会保持谦逊，持续积累。
Stake and Shake gets it, and they're just gonna stay humble and stack sets.
越来越多像Stake and Shake这样的人，我不是在说那些将比特币作为支付方式采纳的企业。
And more and more people that exist like Stake and Shake, I'm not talking about businesses, you know, adopting as payments.
我说的是真正理解比特币的人。
I'm talking about people really getting it.
那些人正在积累。
Those are stacking.
比特币的价格会根据真正理解它的人数找到相应的支撑位。
And Bitcoin will will find floors at a ratio relative to the number of people that actually get it.
然后它仍然会很波动，因为怎么说呢，不超过百分之一的人了解情况。
And then it's like, it's still gonna be volatile because no like, the way I would describe is no more than one in a 100 people know what's going on.
如果只有百分之一的人理解，怎么可能不剧烈波动呢？
How could something not be crazy volatile if only one out of a 100 people get it?
百分之一已经算高的了。
And one out of one out of a 100 is high.
其实还不到百分之一。
It's less it's less than one in a 100.
标普500指数中，直接持有比特币的公司不到百分之一，至少直接持有是这样；如果你说的是持有贝莱德的股份，那我可不包括那种情况。
Know, fewer than one in a 100 companies in the S and P 500 own Bitcoin, like in a direct way, at least, like if they if they own shares in BlackRock, you know, I'm not talking about the IBEX.
他们持有的是某家拥有比特币的公司的股份。
Like, they own shares in some company that owns Bitcoin.
这根本不算真正的敞口。
Like, that that's not exposure.
特斯拉持有比特币。
Like, Tesla owns Bitcoin.
Square公司持有比特币。
Square.
Block公司持有比特币。
Block.
是的。
Yeah.
Block公司持有比特币。
Block owns Bitcoin.
我不认为还有其他标普500公司持有比特币。
There I don't think there there's another S and P 500 company.
所以如果只有五家公司持有比特币，那占比也就1%。
So if five companies owning Bitcoin would be 1%.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
那我们还没到那儿。
Then we're not there.
但另一方面，人们只是查看他们当地的、你知道的，他们工作的公司、家人，人们并不理解。
But also, people just check their their local, you know, their company that they work for, their family members, people don't get it.
你知道的？
You know?
所以，就这样吧。
So it's like, it's just fine.
就像，人们必须去学习。
Like, people just have to to learn.
就像，如果比特币容易被看到，更多人就会注意到它。
It's like, if it were easy to see Bitcoin, more people would see it.
而且，正如Safes所指出的，价格才是最终的评判标准——比特币之所以随着时间推移而上涨，是因为越来越多的人理解了它。
And that and to Safes point of, like, the price being the ultimate arbiter is Bitcoin goes up over time because more people do.
更多人逐渐明白了它的价值。
More people figure it out.
这其实才是最重要的。
And that's really all that matters.
只要越来越多的人在理解它，而不是越来越少，比特币就会随着时间推移而上涨。
It's just like, as so long as more people are figuring it out, not less, then Bitcoin goes up over time.
如果比特币长期持续下跌，不断创出新低而无法再创新高，那将是一个信号，表明那些曾经理解它的人开始觉得它出了问题。
If it ever started going down for long periods of time and consistently, you know, hitting lower lows and not make higher making higher highs, that would be a signal that, like, people who had previously figured it out thought that there was something broken about it.
而我们今天所看到的，并没有任何迹象表明情况如此。
And that's not that like, what we're seeing today is, you know, nothing is signaling that.
比特币世界里确实充满了许多负面情绪，但更多人正在理解它，而不是越来越少。
There's a lot of negative energy in the the world of Bitcoin, but it's like more people are figuring it out, not less.
总而言之。
Bottom line.
是的
Yeah.
一个表明人们开始更认真对待比特币的轶事证据是，即使他们不一定完全理解它，但至少态度更认真了：过去每次价格暴跌时，只要知道我是做什么的，当他们问我价格时，脸上几乎总带着一丝讥笑。
One of the, like, anecdotal piece of evidence that people are starting to take this more seriously, not necessarily understand it, but at least take it more seriously is like, every time we've had a price crash in the past, like people who know what I do, when you tell them or when they ask you about the price, there's almost like a smirk in there.
你知道的吗？
You know?
他们几乎想说，庞氏骗局就要归零了。
They they kinda wanna say the Ponzi is going to zero.
但这次不同的是，我几乎每天都会去拳击馆，人们会主动问我比特币、价格之类的问题。
But this time, the interesting is, like, I go to a boxing gym pretty much every day, and people ask me about Bitcoin, ask me about the price and things like that.
而这次的反应却截然不同。
And this time, the reaction has been very different.
有人觉得，现在或许是时候去了解一下了。
It's been maybe now is a good time to look into it.
现在或许是时候入手了。
Maybe now is a good time to buy.
我认为，对比特币普遍存在的这种怀疑态度正在消退。
And I think that that sort of skepticism around Bitcoin generally is going away.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，仍然有一些人想贬低它，比如我不认识的基思·麦卡洛和嗯。
Like, there are still obviously people that wanna dunk like, I don't know the guy, Keith McCullough and Mhmm.
你知道的，彭博社的评论员和彼得·希夫之流，总说比特币会归零。
You know, Bloomberg talking heads and Peter Schiff, like, it's going to zero.
每次这种情况出现，持这种观点的人越来越少，因为大多数人一看就会想：我不会再犯同样的错误了。
Like, there there are fewer than that fewer of them each time because most people look at it and be like, I'm not gonna do that again.
上次我这么想的时候，已经丢过脸了。
I got embarrassed the last time I thought I did that.
你知道，就连大多数对比特币持敌意的人，也开始明白比特币的涨跌规律了。
You know, the majority of of even the Bitcoin haters are getting wise to to Bitcoin's rise and fall.
但说到重点，我也正经历着同样的情况。
But, like, to the point, like, I'm I'm experiencing the same thing.
我是说，现在还没有出现那种一个人接一个人地问我‘我该怎么操作’的情况。
Like, I'm not yet experiencing just, like, you know, person after person, like, being like, how do I do this?
但当我跟人聊天时，尽管比特币已经存在了，大家还是会问：‘我该怎么入手？'
But when I'm talking to people, despite the fact of Bitcoin being here, it's like, how do I get set up?
当然不是说它会归零，这点很清楚。
Not like ribbon, you know, of course, like it's not zero.
举个例子，来说明这种心理：我去了奥斯汀当地一家支持Square支付的杂货店买菜。
But an example, like to give another piece of the psychology, I went and bought groceries at the local grocer that got enabled by Square here in Austin.
我用比特币付了款。
And I bought with I paid with Bitcoin.
收银员说：‘哇，这挺酷的。’
And the person working behind the counter was like, oh, that's cool.
这是我第一次在这里看到有人用比特币付款。
That's the first time I've been here when someone's bought in Bitcoin.
她知道店里接受比特币，但她还是说了一句类似‘我感觉自己错过了什么’的话。
Like, knew that they accepted it, but she she made a comment along the lines of like, I just feel like I missed it.
我太晚了。
I'm too late.
你知道吗，我就坐在那儿买 groceries，可我不想当场变成一颗完整的橙色药丸。
You know, and I'm sitting there just buying groceries and I don't want to like turn into a full orange pill right on the spot.
我当时想，你看，你并不算晚，我们其实非常早，于是我给了她整整三十秒的时间。
I was like, look, you're not, you know, like, we're super early, you know, and I gave her my like, literal thirty seconds.
整个理念就是他们一直在印更多的美元。
Whole idea is that they keep printing more dollars.
这就是为什么食物越来越贵。
That's why food's getting more expensive.
而比特币的核心理念是它无法被印出来。
And the whole idea around Bitcoin is that it can't be printed.
有很多噪音。
There's a lot of noise.
我做的是比特币，但只是比特币，你知道的，就是这种级别的对话。
I work on Bitcoin, but just Bitcoin, you know, like that level of conversation.
我当时就说，你没错过，你真的没错过。
Was like, you're not you're not to you know, you didn't miss it.
你应该上网去了解一下这方面的内容。
You should, you know, go online and read something about it.
你知道吧？
You know?
但她确实感兴趣。
But she was interested.
对吧？
Right?
并不是说价格在崩盘，会不会归零？
Like, it wasn't the price is crashing and is it going to zero?
她说她听说现在是六万八千美元。
It was like, I I I hear it 68,000 now.
我感觉自己错过了，这其实也是心理上很自然的一种反应。
I I, you know, I feel like I missed it, which is also a natural side of the psychology.
随着时间的推移，人们就会慢慢放下这种情绪。
And then over time, people just get over that.
但通常现在活跃的人，并不是上次有意向却没行动的那些人。
But it's usually not like the people that are that are activating right now are the people that had the inclination the last time but didn't.
当价格跌到16000时，我们的这种想法可能进一步被强化了。
And then we're probably reinforced when it went down to to 16,000.
但当价格涨到125000时，他们才意识到：天啊，我犯了个错误。
But then when it went up to 125, they were like, shit, I I made a mistake.
现在价格又开始下跌，他们就想：好吧，这次我不能再犯同样的错误了。
And now as it's coming down, they're like, okay, like, I don't need to make the same mistake.
这就是事情的常态。
And that's that's just what happens.
这其实就是人性的体现，是人类心理与价格信号相互作用的结果。
Like, that's human, you know, combination of human psychology and following signal being price.
是的。
Yeah.
当别人问我是否错过了时机时，我总是说，我觉得自己在2016年、2017年就已经错过了。
The thing that I always say when people ask me if they've missed it is like, I thought I've missed it in 2016, 2017.
而且，这种情况还会继续发生。
And, like, that's gonna continue to happen.
最后，关于你之前提到的比特币作为货币使用这一点，
Just lastly on this point of, like, you you brought up before that Bitcoin being used as money as being, like, a really important part of this.
你为什么认为这很重要？
Why do you think that is?
因为有很多人只把比特币看作一种价值储存手段，并不认为它是交换媒介。
Because there's a lot of people out there that think of Bitcoin as sort of just a store of value and don't necessarily see it as the medium of exchange.
显然，价值储存会先出现，也确实已经先出现了。
And, obviously, like, store of value is gonna come first and sort of has come first.
但为什么让它成为真正的货币如此重要？
But why is moving to being an actual currency so important?
因为它的激励机制会促使它被用作货币。
So it so the incentives of it will dictate that it will be used as currency.
想象有一百个人，其中一个人用比特币储蓄。
Imagine there's a 100 people and imagine one of them is saving in Bitcoin.
用我的方式。
Using my yeah.
不超过百分之一的人理解比特币。
No more than one in a 100 people understand Bitcoin.
我承认，目前有超过1%的人对比特币有一定接触。
And I I recognize that more than 1% have some exposure to Bitcoin at this point.
它不像有些人说的那样，有40%的美国人拥有比特币。
It's not as high as people quoted when they say 40 of Americans own Bitcoin.
是的。
Yeah.
可能大约有35%的人对其有实质性的接触。
It's probably something like somewhere between 35% have some material exposure to it.
但真正理解的人比例很低，比如哈佛大学卖了一些比特币，转而购买了更多以太坊。
But the the percentage of people that actually understand like Harvard sold some Bitcoin and bought more Ethereum.
他们拥有比特币。
They own Bitcoin.
但他们并不理解它。
They don't get it.
对吧？
Right?
但我们就假设每100个人中只有1个人理解比特币，其余99个人都使用法币。
But let's just assume that one out of a 100 people understands Bitcoin and the 99 others are fiat.
对吧？
Right?
如果只有百分之一的人理解比特币，你怎么可能建立一个交易经济？
How do you have a trading economy with only one out of a 100 understanding Bitcoin?
即使你把总数扩大到80亿人，那么理解比特币的也有8000万人。
Even if you put it to 8,000,000,000 people and go down to, you know, 80,000,000.
对吧？
Right?
这正是我想说的，世界上根本没有八千万人真正理解比特币。
Which that's where I say, like, there's not 80,000,000 people in the world that really understand Bitcoin.
但即使这八千万人遍布全球，那么在一个地方，商家和某个人同时理解比特币的可能性有多大呢？
But even though, like, if that's across the world, then what is the likelihood of a of a business and somebody understanding Bitcoin in the same place?
而那个理解比特币的人是个商家，他们已经投资了基础设施，你走进他们的商店。
And and and the one that understands it is a business, and they've invested in infrastructure, and you come to their store.
密度问题是最大的挑战。
It's just the density is the biggest uphill battle.
人们首先理解比特币为何能储存价值，开始储存价值，钱包里有了一些比特币，然后他们来到一家商家那里。
Like people first understanding why Bitcoin stores value, starting to store value, having some Bitcoin in wallet, they show up to a business.
哦，他们接受比特币。
Oh, they accept Bitcoin.
让我试试看。
Let me try this.
但想象一下整个世界，100%的人都搞明白了比特币为何能储存价值。
But go out to a world where a 100% of people have figured out why Bitcoin stores value.
那么，谁在持有法币的这一袋呢？
Well, who is holding the bag of the fiat currency?
如果一百个人里有九十甚至八十个人都理解了比特币，我们不说一百，但假设是百分之九十或百分之八十，那么你作为一家理解比特币的企业主，和那些同样理解比特币的个人之间就会产生重叠。
If a 100 out of a 100 all have figured out Bitcoin, let's not say a 100, but say 90%, you know, or 80%, then the overlaps of like, oh, you're you're a person that runs a business that understands Bitcoin.
你是一个普通人。
You're an individual.
绝大多数走进你店里的个人，也都理解比特币并持有比特币。
By and large, every individual that's walking through your store also understands Bitcoin and has Bitcoin.
如果他们想要使用比特币，为什么还要强迫别人用法币支付，然后再换成比特币呢？
What would be the reason for if they wanted Bitcoin to force somebody to pay them in fiat to then convert it into Bitcoin?
关键在于激励机制：当所有人都把价值储存在比特币中时，就没有人再持有那些糟糕且会贬值的货币了。
It's just the the incentives of like, hey, everyone's storing value in Bitcoin is that nobody else is holding currencies that are shitty and lose their value.
于是就会变成：作为对我商品和服务的回报，直接给我那种可以在互联网上轻松流通的钱吧。
And then it's like, well, just give me you know, in return for my goods and services, just give me that money that's easily exchangeable over the Internet.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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