商品转变、信贷危机与比特币 | 埃里克·亚克斯

你知道，这现在对我们来说是一个制约因素。

You know, that that's a constraint for us now.

我认为，这就是为什么这对我们来说是一个制约因素？

And I think that, you know, this why is this a constraint for us?

这是一个制约因素，因为许多听这个播客的人可能都很清楚，当尼克松在1971年废除金本位制时，我们经历了著名的尼克松冲击，随后转向了法币体系。

It's a constraint because, you know, as many people who listen to this podcast probably are well aware of when Nixon repealed the gold standard in 1971, and we had the famous Nixon shock, and we went on to a fiat denominated system.

自那以来，全球协调的央行政策推动了政府以及更广泛的私人体系中的债务扩张，使其占GDP的比例达到了历史最高水平。

And since we've had globally coordinated central banking policy that's expanded debt through governments and and and more broadly in private systems as well to the largest proportion against GDP it's been in history.

嗯。

Mhmm.

债务达到了历史最高点。

So debts at all time highs.

以前债务相对于GDP的比例也曾很高，但这是第一次。

And for the first time, what's novel, we've we've had debt be very high before proportional to GDP.

但这一次，它是全球协调的。

But for the first time, it's globally coordinated.

这是普遍的。

It's universal.

这意味着当全球协调一致时，就没有释放压力的途径了。

And that means that there's no escape valve when it's globally coordinated.

这就是全部了。

This is it.

而释放压力的途径意味着它会收缩。

And the escape valve means it deflates.

而且

And

它无法收缩，或者已经结束了。

And it can't deflate or is over.

而且它无法

And it can't

收缩，否则就完了。

deflate or it's over.

所以，真正独特的是，你可以玩这个游戏，之前只是觉得，好吧。

And and so, like, that's what's really unique is you could play this game where it's like before it's just like, okay.

但它可以有泄压阀，价值可以转移到其他地方。

Well, it can have an escape valve and the value can move somewhere else.

但现在我们讨论的是整个世界。

But now it's just like we're talking about the world here.

所以这就是不同之处。

So that's that's what's different.

这就是它变得如此巨大的原因。

That's what makes it so much bigger.

而且这类似于你可以用类似的论点来说明美元的主导地位。

And and it's similar to like, you you can use a similar argument, however, for dollar dominance.

我认为，当人们说，好吧，你知道，国债迟早会崩盘时，这就是其中之一。

And and I think that that's one of, like, when people are like, okay, well, you know, treasuries have to go bust.

看看政府在做什么。

Look at what the government's doing.

看看我们的联邦赤字支出等等。

Look at our federal deficit spending, etcetera.

问题是，如果你把它看作一个简单的市场，你会想，美国国债的需求在哪里？

The question's like, okay, well, if you think about it as like a simple market and you say, what's the demand for US treasuries?

它们存在于哪里？

Where where do they exist?

现实是我们还没有消耗掉整个市场。

The reality is is we haven't consumed that entire market.

所以，如果由于某种原因，有大型潜在的国债购买者，比如我们说，好吧，我们想让你重新回来。

So if there were say, for some reason, some large potential buyer of treasuries, maybe it's somebody like a rush where we say, okay, we wanna let you back in.

然后这突然释放出更多对我们的债务的需求。

And then that all of a sudden unlocks quite a bit more demand for our debt.

除非我们已经消耗掉了整个市场。

Unless we've consumed that entire market.

但它们还会以如此规模回来吗？知道任何时候都可能不会。

But would they ever come back in size knowing that at any point Probably not.

他们想要，但随时可以被切断。

They want it, they can just be shut off.

可能不会。

Probably not.

我不知道转折点在哪里。

I don't know what the inflection point is.

对吧？

Right?

但我的意思是，直到我们消耗掉——直到全世界都持有美国国债之前，这个体系都可以围绕对它的需求而扩张。

But what I'm saying is more that until we've consumed, like, until the entire world owns US treasury, the system can expand around demand for it.

这个变量依然存在，这意味着我们仍然可以将自身的通胀输出到其他国家。

Like, that variable still exists, which means that we can still export our own inflation to other countries.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，某种程度上，另一面是，它在某个维度上还没有被完全消耗掉。

And, like, so so that's kinda like the other side, I guess, of it is that that isn't fully consumed at one dimension of it.

但现实是，每个人都按照这个高杠杆的新体系行事，这是历史上杠杆率最高的体系，而它并没有消失。

But the reality of that, everybody's kind of acting in accordance with this new system that's highly levered, the most levered in history, you know, that hasn't gone away.

自从我们走上这条道路以来，信贷就扩张到了这种水平。

So ever since we've kind of gone this direction, we've expanded credit to these levels.

现在我们处于这样一个境地：人们唯一的替代选择就是某种替代体系，嗯。

Now we're in a position where the there the only alternative for people is, you know, some sort of alternative system Mhmm.

玩这些信贷游戏。

Playing these credit games.

而商品趋势正是由此而来的。

And and that's that's where the commodity trend has come in.

商品趋势是一种退出信贷游戏的行为，而且是成比例的。

The commodity the commodity trend is an opting out of the credit game and and proportionately so.

所以，回到去年黄金价格上涨这件事上。

So, like, tying this back to gold running up last year.

从结构上看，我们看到的是人们更多地参与商品游戏，这是一个更大的转折点。

Like, structurally, that's what we're seeing is just a greater inflection point in people playing the commodity game.

这本就在预料之中，几十年来大家一直在讨论这个问题。

To be expected been you know, this has been talked about for decades.

每个人都只是在等待，第三次世界大战什么时候爆发？转折点在哪里？

Everybody's just been waiting for what is the when World War three, what's the inflection point?

当人们走投无路时，就不得不采取这样的行动。

When people get desperate, they have to do things like this.

我们必须保护这类体系。

And and we have to protect these types of systems.

所以，从宏观层面来看，我没有觉得有什么特别出乎意料的地方。

So I there's nothing I would say that at a at a high level has been necessarily surprising.

在我看来，很多事情都是一种必然的结果。

It's kind of been an eventuality is the way I viewed a lot of this.

但也许特朗普把这一进程加快了一点。

But maybe Trump sped that timeline up a little bit.

没错。

Exactly.

可以成为推动这一切的催化剂。

Can act as like a catalyst with a lot of this.

然后还有人争论，他是如何能够应对其中一些问题的。

And then there's arguments for, you know, how he's even able to handle some of it.

但正如你所说，债务问题现在已经成为全球性问题，没有缓冲余地。

But with the debt, like you're saying this is like a global issue now and there's no escape valve.

那他们还有什么选择呢？

Like what options do they have?

如果债务真的全面收缩，系统就会崩溃，那就完了。

So if they if the debt if that all deflates, the system breaks down, it's over.

是的。

Yeah.

他们可以尝试通过增长来摆脱债务。

They can try and grow their way out of debt.

也许人工智能是其中的催化剂，或者他们也可以通过通胀来稀释债务。

Maybe AI is a catalyst in that, or I guess they can inflate away the debt.

它们基本上是他们仅有的选择吗？

Are they the basically the only options they have?

所以因为，是的。

So because the Yeah.

违约的话，游戏也结束了。

Defaulting on it, game's over as well.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

百分之百。

A 100%.

违约就像是他们在玩一个游戏，而他们所做事情的成本并不由自己承担。

It's it's like defaulting is just like they're they're playing a game where, you know, the cost to what they're doing aren't their own.

这意味着，就像你在玩电子游戏时，你的角色死了，但你自己并不会死。

So that means that it's like, you know, it's like you're playing a video game and your character dies and, like, you don't die.

这基本上就是他们玩的游戏。

Like, that's kind of the game they're playing.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你把这一点推到极致。

Where so you you take that to the end.

你知道，大部分情况下，你可以对这个角色承担任何你想承担的风险。

You know, you're gonna take as much risk with that character as you want for the most part.

而他们认为，显然这会影响你，因为你输了游戏，你不想这样。

And they're like, obviously, it impacts you because you lose the game and you don't want that.

但我认为，由于他们的决策后果存在错位，这最终会促使他们承担尽可能多的风险，以试图赢得游戏。

But I I think because there's a misalignment of the consequences of their decision making that that that will ultimately lead them to taking on, you know, as much risk as possible to try to beat the game, basically.

你认为他们真的有可能通过自身增长摆脱债务吗？

Do you put any real probability on them actually being able to grow themselves out of this debt?

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以我想我们来谈谈人工智能的问题吧。

So I guess I'll let's get into the AI question.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但在那之前，我想总结一下，就是美国、日本，然后是伊朗，以及由此引发的信贷分裂。

So but before that, I think, like, to recap, it's just like, you know, US, Japan, and then Iran, and then credit fracturing that's stemming from all of this.

我们思考所有存在的信贷。

And we think about all the credit that exists.

我们思考消费者信贷。

We think about consumer credit.

我们思考失业问题。

We think about job losses.

这与人工智能部分有关。

This ties into the AI piece.

你知道吗，二月那份失业报告，数字是24464之类的。

You know, the job loss report in, February 24464 or whatever it was.

那可是个大事件。

That was big.

BLOCK的公告。

The BLOCK announcement.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这让我很意外。

That surprised me.

我当时以为，当这个公告发布时，我们大概一年后才会看到这些影响。

I was of the mindset that when that announcement happened, that we would start seeing this in about a year.

公平地说，我认为这正是其中一个情况，但他们的员工人数太多了。

So to be fair, and I think this is one of those, actually, but like, I think their headcount was huge.

我觉得这很可能只是个裁员的借口。

I think it was probably, this was like an excuse to cut headcount.

是的。

Yeah.

但我觉得这也很清楚地表明了这一趋势。

Although I think it also very clearly shows the trend.

我觉得这件事其实有两面性。

I think there's kind of there's two sides of that story.

对。

Yep.

嗯，我认为我同意那种说法，即他们确实人员过剩了。

I well, the reason I think that I I agree that there's, like, the actually, like, they were bloated on headcount type argument.

也许他们人员过剩了，也许没有。

Maybe they were, maybe they weren't.

我觉得要完全下定论有点困难。

Like, I think I think it is a little tricky to totally say.

但无论如何，

But regardless, like

对市场来说，把这说成是你们实际上在裁员，这种说法相当积极。

It's quite a positive spin to put on it for the market that you're actually getting rid these people because

正是我的观点。

Exactly my point.

是的。

Yeah.

正是我的观点。

Exactly my point.

这对每个人来说都是一个积极的说法，大家都在这么说。

It's a positive spin for the everybody's everybody's saying it.

市场上的人都在四处说：‘天哪。’

You got market entries and running around like, oh, no.

我们并没有消除工作。

We're not eliminating jobs.

我们是在消除任务。

We're eliminating tasks.

是的。

Yeah.

就像是，不。

It's like, no.

看看数据。

Look at the numbers.

只会变得更糟。

Like, they're just gonna get worse.

因为工作以合同形式出现，而雇主不再那么在意。

Like, because jobs emerge as contracts and employers don't care as much.

雇主想取消合同，因为合同要花钱。

Like, employers wanna eliminate contracts cause contracts cost money.

是的。

Yeah.

我不明白我们该如何反驳这一点。

And and I don't see how we argue against that.

所以，确实有很多人在这事上说一套做一套。

So, yeah, there's definitely a lot of people talking out of both sides of their mouth on this.

但有趣的是，如今在硅谷，每家公司都在说：我们的人员规模太大了。

But the interesting piece of that is that, like, for every company now in Silicon Valley, that's like, Our headcount's too high.

这让我们花了很多钱。

This is costing us a fortune.

是的。

Yeah.

他们现在可以以一种可能推高股价的方式来操作。

They can now do it in a way that'll probably bump their share price.

是的。

Yeah.

他们可以说，我们裁员不是因为经营困难，而是因为人工智能，兄弟。

They can be like, we're getting rid of these people not because we're struggling, but because of AI, bro.

完全没错。

Totally.

是的。

Yeah.

AI，老兄。

AI, bro.

然后那个

And then the

我们是原生AI公司。

We're AI native.

我们裁员。

We lay off our employees.

是的。

Yeah.

正是如此。

Exactly it.

而且，这种失业趋势真的很可怕。

And, like, so, like, that job loss trend is scary.

这现在对人们来说是个巨大的问号，我觉得。

That's that's a huge question mark for people right now, I think.

而且，与此同时，我们还经历了私人信贷的崩盘。

And and then we had, like, the private credit crash as well alongside this.

是的。

Yep.

而且我认为，这也是另一个巨大的问号。

And like that, I think is that's another huge question mark.

我觉得，AI是个巨大的问号。

I'd say, like, AI, huge question mark.

私人信贷，是个巨大的问号。

Private credit, huge question mark.

私人信贷之所以是个巨大的问号，是因为人们很容易把责任归咎于它。

And the reason private credit's a huge question mark is it's a very easy thing for people to point their fingers at.

因为如果某件事的信息很少，那就意味着人们对它理解起来并不复杂。

Like, it's a very because if if there's not that much information on something, then it means it's not a complex topic for people to understand.

所以人们很容易说，看吧，就是这个问题。

So it's easy for people to say, oh, look at that.

因为这个市场缺乏透明度，就这么简单。

Because it's just like, oh, there's not a lot of transparency in that market.

人们估计这是一个影子银行市场。

It's like, you know, people estimate it's a shadow banking market.

所以，人们估计这个市场的规模大约在两到三万亿美元之间。

So, like, people are estimating size around, like, two to three trillion of this thing.

这个市场的20%是公开申报的财务报告收益。

20% of that market is, like, publicly filed report earnings.

然后，其中大约10%是真正公开交易且流动性好的部分。

And then, like, 10% of that is, like, actual, like, publicly traded liquid.

是的。

Mhmm.

所以市场的其余部分就像一个私密的黑箱。

So the rest of the market is just like a private black box.

比如，我们冒险资本基金的有限合伙人了解我们所做的投资。

Like, you know, us, adventure capital fund, we have an LP base who's aware of the investments we're making.

我们在网站上公布我们的投资组合公司信息。

We report our portfolio companies on our website.

但如果我们不这么做，就没人知道。

But if we didn't do that, nobody knows.

你没必要这么做。

You don't have to.

只有投资者才能了解我们的信息。

You have to be an investor to know our information.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，最聪明的投资者，对私人信贷最有洞察力的人，是那些投资了全国所有私人信贷基金并从所有这些基金获取报告的人。

So, like, the intelligent investor, the guy who has the best perspective in private credit is the guy who's invested in every private credit fund in the country and gets reports from all these guys.

对。

Yep.

也许这样的人确实存在。

Maybe that guy exists.

但要真正了解发生了什么真的很难。

But it's really hard to actually know what's going on.

话虽如此，人们常将当前情况与全球金融危机相比较，并说：看，就是这样。

That said, people draw parallels to GFC, and they say, well, look at this.

某些资产出现了折价。

Here's markdowns in certain assets.

这类资产规模有多大？

How big are these category of assets?

还有更多吗？

Is there more?

这是一件非常容易理解的事，就像私人信贷一直持续扩张一样，你知道，我记得五年前，当我们为风险投资基金募资时，我们会去传统固定收益类的场合。

It's a very easy thing in the same way that private credit has persistently expanded as long as it has, like, you know, I remember five years ago when I would, you know, for, like, fundraising for venture capital fund, we go to the trad fibro type things.

而我现在参加一个资产管理人峰会，所有这些人都在代表高净值客户和机构客户管理资产，谈的全是私人信贷、私人信贷、私人信贷。

And I'm in an RA summit, and all these guys are just like large RAs managing on behalf of, you know, high net worth and institutional type clients and private credit, private credit, private credit.

这是免费的钱，你知道的？

It's free money, You know?

11%到14%。

11 to 14%.

就像没有任何风险。

It's like no risk.

去年有一篇特别有趣的帖子，基本上就是在说私人信贷。

There's this really funny post from last year basically saying that about private credit.

他总能提出很好的见解。

He's full of good takes.

他总是像煤矿里的金丝雀一样，对所有事情都最先预警。

He's just always he's the canary in the coal mine on everything.

而且

And

基本上就是如此。

and it was basically that.

就是一堆人上台，好像我们正在为客户的私人信贷操心似的。

It's just a bunch of people hopping on stage like we're getting our, you know, clients' private credit.

你知道的。

You know?

而且这种情况一直持续，持续到现在。

And, like, that's been persisting and persisting.

我记得2020年参加那个峰会时，心里就想：天哪。

And, like, I remember being at that summit back in, like, 2020 and be like, oh god.

你知道的。

You know?

因为所有人都在谈论这个话题。

Because it's all these people talk about.

结果它就演变成一个巨大的叙事。

And it just becomes, like, this huge narrative.

事实上，我们根本没法像迈克尔·伯里和《大空头》那样看透真相。

The reality is is we can't look into, like, Michael Burry and the big short.

对吧？

Right?

他能够提取大量抵押贷款价值。

He was able to pull a bunch of mortgage value.

而像这些家伙，你得跑遍各地去看这些房子，跟人交谈。

And like these guys, you gotta go run around and look at these homes and talk to people.

这让你足够意识到，哦，这些东西简直一文不值。

And that gives you enough of a sense of like, oh, this shit these things are trash.

是的。

Mhmm.

在私人信贷中很难做到这一点，因为它无处不在。

That's hard to do in private credit because it's everywhere.

你知道，信贷无处不在。

You know, credit is everywhere.

都有哪些不同类型？

What's the different types?

谁拥有什么？

Who owns what?

我们确实可以研究一些非常大的类别。

There's definitely very large categories that we can look into.

但并不是所有信息都是公开报告的。

But it's not all publicly reported.

正因为如此，它才能长期存在，也正因如此，人们很容易对此感到恐慌。

So for the same reason it can persist for a long time is the same reason people can get scared very easily about it.

因为他们一看，嗯，

Because they look at this like, okay.

这些人刚封闭了他们的基金。

These guys just gated their fund.

这很糟糕。

That's bad.

这些人正在更改这里的信贷条款。

These guys are changing credit terms here.

哦，他们只是把这个资产估值调到了零。

Oh, they just marked that one to zero.

比如，有很多情况你都会觉得，这很糟糕。

Like, there's a bunch of things where you'd like, that's bad.

但要说私人信贷会彻底崩溃，

But to be like, oh, private credit's gonna completely collapse.

还是很难下定论。

Still gonna be hard to say.

所以，这完全可能像银行挤兑那样，因为大家都变得恐慌，这就是为什么公众舆论需要被妥善引导。

So it could be very much bank run type mechanics just because everybody gets fearful, which is why the narrative needs to be managed publicly.

因此，人们承受着巨大压力，必须确保自己不会引发对这件事的恐慌。

So there's a ton of pressure on people to make sure that they're not causing fear about it.

但无论如何，我认为这仍然是一个问号。

But in any event, that's a question mark is kind of how I view it.

这很可能会成为另一次金融危机，但你知道，没人真的清楚。

It could very much be another financial crisis, but, you know, nobody just really knows.

我们可以观察市场中约20%的部分，并据此对一些事物做出投资判断。

We can look at like 20% of the market and start making bets on a few things based off that.

我最近和杰夫·斯奈德做过一期节目，他谈到了私人信贷这个问题。

I did a show with Jeff Snyder recently, and he was talking about this private credit issue.

他说他也不确定，但确实有一些细微的迹象表明，这可能会演变成一场真正的金融危机。

And he was saying that he's not sure, but there's, like, there is just maybe small signs that this could escalate into being, an actual financial crisis.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，冻结资金、它们所经历的减记金额，这些都是一些严重的数字。

I I mean, gating gating funds, the amount of write downs that they've had, like, these are serious numbers.

对于那些关注过这个市场的人来说，这是显而易见的。

It's intuitive to people who have looked at this market.

而且，我觉得当你身处其中，和很多配置这些资产的人交流时，比如你跟那些直接管理大额资金的金融配置者交谈，他们会说：我们会把百分之多少的资金配置到风险投资，百分之多少配置到对冲基金，百分之多少配置到股票市场。

And, like, I I think when you're on the inside talking to a lot of people that allocate to these things, Like, when you talk to financial allocators, these are guys who are working with the person who has a lot of money directly, and they're saying, we're gonna allocate you x percentage into venture capital, x percentage into head funds, x percentage into the stock market.

而且他们会对很多事情形成自己的金融观点。

And and they kinda form financial opinions on on a lot of things.

我觉得我有点一个观点，那就是金融危机会由资金配置者引发，因为他们对全局有宏观的视角。

I think I kinda have a bit of a thesis that, like, financial crises are driven by allocators just because they have a very bird's eye view of everything.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们自以为足够了解这些风险，却又完全不了解自己配置资金的各个类别。

Enough to think they know about them and enough to also completely not understand, like, all all the categories that they're allocating into.

但他们的行为可能引发某种危机。

But their actions can spark something.

但他们的行为实际上决定了资金流向哪里。

But their actions are actually consequential in terms of what gets allocated to.

这些身处顶层的人全都把钱投向了私人信贷，因为他们依赖的是纸面数字。

These are the people at the summit who are all, like, you know, pushing all their money in private credit because these people rely on paper.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们依赖纸面上的东西。

They rely on what's on paper.

因为首先，他们缺乏深入查看底层资产的专业知识。

Because they don't, one, have the expertise to go look under the hood.

其次，他们也没有时间去深入查看底层资产。

Two, have the time to go look under the hood.

而那些运营私募信贷基金、承担巨大风险的人，他们是怎么思考这些问题的呢？

And the games the guys who are, like, a guy running a private credit fund who's taking on a lot of risk, How is he thinking about things?

他会想，好吧，我的基金大概能拿到十比一的回报条款。

He's like, well, you know, I'm gonna get my probably, like, one in 10 type terms on my fund.

我想募集资金并向这些人报告良好的业绩，因为这意味着会有更多资金流入。

And I wanna raise and report good numbers to these people because that means more money comes in the door.

从历史上看，我们一直能够管理这种开放式或封闭式基金，通常只有10%的份额会赎回。

Historically speaking, you know, we've been able to manage this, like, open ended fund or closed ended fund at, you know, or open ended funds at, you know, 10% of the float will ever withdraw.

所以只要我们能保持部分投资的流动性以应对这种情况，我就靠1%的管理费稳赚，再加上绩效分成的收益。

So as long as we can stay pretty liquid on some of our investments for that, I'm just like printing money on my 1% fee and then, you know, we'll make some money on the carry upside.

但他们并没有考虑自己是否正在引发一场金融危机，或者承担了过多的风险。

But, like, they're not thinking in terms of, am I starting a financial crisis and taking on too much risk?

他们想的是要打造一个能赚大钱的大型基金。

They're thinking in terms of I wanna have a big fund where I make a lot of money.

很多人的想法都是这样的。

A lot of guys are thinking this way.

所以我认为，如果管理者看到一份不错的文件并做了尽职调查，但他们并不了解这些实际的投资。

And and so I think that the managers, if they see good paper and they do their due diligence, but they don't know about these actual investments.

他们只看到纸上写的，比如一些抵押贷款看起来不错，或者一些商业贷款看起来不错，那就觉得没问题。

And all they see is on paper if, you know, some of these mortgages look good or some of these business loans look good, that that's good.

让我夜不能寐的是我的比特币冷钱包出现严重错误的可能性。

The thing that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error of my Bitcoin cold storage.

这时候，ANCHORWATCH 就派上用场了。

And this is where ANCHORWATCH comes in.

通过 ANCHORWATCH，你的比特币将由一家评级为 A+ 的伦敦劳合社保险单提供保障，所有比特币都存放在他们的时间锁定多重签名保险库中。

With ANCHORWATCH, your Bitcoin is insured with your own a plus rated Lloyd's of London insurance policy, and all Bitcoin is held in their time locked multisig vaults.

因此，您可以在不放弃托管权的情况下，安心知道您的比特币已投保。

So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin is insured while not giving up custody.

无论您担心遗产规划、勒索攻击、自然灾害，还是自己犯的愚蠢错误，ANCHORWATCH 都能为您提供保障。

So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, rent attacks, natural disasters, or just your own silly mistakes, you're protected by ANCHORWATCH.

完全投保的托管服务费率低至0.55%，面向美国境内的个人和企业客户开放。

Rates for fully insured custody start as low as 0.55% and are available for individual and commercial customers located in The US.

如需获取报价，或了解您的安全选项和保障详情，请访问 anchorwatch.com。

Speak to ANCHORWATCH for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage, visit anchorwatch.com today.

网址是 anchorwatch.com。

That's anchorwatch.com.

您想少交税，多囤比特币吗？

Do you wanna pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin?

当然想。

Of course, you do.

通过使用 BLOCKWARE 挖掘比特币，您就可以做到。

Well, by mining Bitcoin with BLOCKWARE, you can.

根据美国税法第168(k)条，比特币挖矿服务器可享受100%的加速折旧优惠。

Under section one sixty eight k of US tax code, Bitcoin mining servers qualify for a 100% bonus depreciation.

这意味着你每在挖矿设备上花费一美元，都可以在当年直接抵扣你的收入，无论是企业主还是W-2收入者都适用。

This means every dollar you spend on miners can directly offset your income in a single year, and that's true for both business owners and w two earners.

如果你有10万美元的普通收入，你可以购买价值10万美元的挖矿设备，从而可能完全抵消你的税务负担。

If you have a $100,000 in ordinary income, you can purchase a $100,000 in miners and potentially offset your tax liability entirely.

BLOCKWARE的挖矿即服务模式承担了所有繁重的工作。

BLOCKWARE's mining as a service does all the heavy lifting.

他们负责保障矿机的安全。

They secure the rigs.

他们采购低成本电力，并处理所有日常维护工作。

They source the low cost power and handle all the day to day maintenance.

因此，你可以每天持续积累比特币，同时大幅降低你的税单。

So you get to stack Bitcoin every single day while drastically shrinking your tax bill.

立即访问blockwaresolutions.com/wbd，并使用代码wbd享受首台矿机100美元优惠。

Get started today at blockwaresolutions.com/wbd, and use code w b d for a $100 off your first miner.

这是 blockwaresolutions.com/wbd。

That's blockwaresolutions.com/wbd.

你是否希望能在不卖出比特币的情况下获得现金？

Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin?

LEDN 让这成为可能。

Well, LEDN makes that possible.

他们是全球领先的比特币抵押贷款服务商，自2018年以来已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，且始终完美保障客户资产。

They're the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets.

使用 LEDN，你可以获得全额托管贷款，无需信用审查或月供，只需轻松获得美元，而无需卖出一个 satoshi。

With LEDN, you get full custody loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT.

LEDN 仅提供比特币抵押贷款，所有抵押品均由 LEDN 或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。

LEDN exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by LEDN directly or their funding partners.

你的比特币永远不会被借出以产生利息。

Your Bitcoin's never lent out to generate interest.

我最近在 LEDN 办了一笔贷款。

I recently took out a loan with LEDN.

整个过程非常简单。

The whole process was super easy.

申请花了我不到十五分钟，几个小时后，我就把美元存入了账户。

The application took me less than fifteen minutes, and in a few hours, I had the dollars in my account.

整个流程非常顺畅。

It was super smooth.

所以，如果你需要现金但不想卖出比特币，请前往 ledn.io/wbd，你的首笔贷款可享受百分之零点二五的折扣。

So if you need cash but you don't wanna sell Bitcoin, head over to ledn.io/wbd, and you'll get point two five percent off your first loan.

那是 ledn.io/wbd。

That's ledn.io/wbd.

但我的疑问是，我明白他们的动机是想从资金中获利，为此他们需要吸引更多资本。

But my question there would be like, so I understand their incentive is they wanna make money on their fund, but and to do that, they have to bring in more capital.

他们必须进行更多投资，但什么时候他们的投资会从正常投资变成错误投资呢？

They have to invest more But when does the investments that they're making go from being investments to sort of malinvestments?

是的。

Yeah.

是什么改变了这一点？

Like what changes that?

当有一天我接到电话，说我无法还款时。

When there's a phone call one day that I can't pay.

比如，当你考虑任何一种交易时，比如我们投资初创公司，我们会做尽职调查。

Like it is the When you think about any sort of transaction, like we invest in startups, We do due diligence.

当我们做出投资时，你知道，投资一个创始人后三个月，你就能看清现实了。

When we make an investment, you know, when you invest in a founder, three months into it, you figure out reality, you know, after the investment.

你会更接近真相，比如……

You get a lot closer to, like, okay.

这里有一些藏在暗处的问题。

Here's some of the, like, the skeletons in the closet.

这里有一些主要的问题。

Here's some of the major problems.

这正是任何投资的现实。

That's just the reality of any investment.

尽职调查是非常困难的，除非你极其有耐心。

Due diligence is a really hard thing unless you're incredibly patient.

我认为，真正能做到极其有耐心并完成尽职调查的唯一方式，就是极其富有。

I think the only way to really be incredibly patient and do it is to be incredibly rich.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那些人可以坐着，他们不必非得做成一笔交易。

Those are the guys you can sit they don't have to do a deal.

他们可以闲坐着。

They can sit around.

他们不必靠工作谋生。

They don't have to make a living.

他们可以闲坐着。

They can sit around.

然后他们就只是坐在那里，了解人，了解各种情况。

And then they just like sit there, get to know people, learn about situations.

然后当一个本垒打突然出现时，就会想，咱们就去做这个吧。

And then like when a home run just emerges out of nowhere, it's like, let's go do that.

我认为对其他人来说，更需要的是资本配置。

I think for everybody else, there's more of a, you know, there's a need to allocate capital.

从这个角度来看，这会改变一些激励机制。

And and I think from that perspective, it changes some of the incentives.

尽职调查就是你永远无法掌握所有信息的事情。

Like, due diligence is just something where you're never gonna get everything.

当你缺乏足够的动力时，因为你收到的款项并不那么在意。

And when you don't have as much of an incentive, because the checks that, you know, you're receiving doesn't care as much.

他们只关心纸面上的某些东西。

They just care about certain things on paper.

如果你说这些是好贷款，它们确实是好贷款，他们就会参考一些信用评级机构，我们已经看到了信用评级机构中存在的扭曲激励。

If you say they're good loans and they're good loans, and they look at some credit rating agencies, we've seen the perverse incentives that exist within credit rating agencies.

如果你能操纵文件，你就能操纵资金分配。

If you can manipulate the paper, you can manipulate the allocation.

归根结底就是这么回事。

That's kinda what it comes down to.

当现实与纸面上的东西出现偏差时，危机就会发生。

And and then these crises happen when the reality departs from what's on paper.

实际上真正做尽职调查的人非常少。

And there's always very few people actually doing that due diligence.

迈克尔·伯里所做的，就是试图弄清楚如何让纸面数据与现实相符。

That's what, like, Michael Burry was doing is actually trying to figure out how do I match paper with reality.

在私人信贷领域，没人能完成所有这些工作。

And nobody's gonna be able to do all of that within private credit.

但如果足够多的人感到恐惧和恐慌，比如公开市场中20%的资产真的出现大规模撤资——像贝莱德或黑石在该领域的基金出现45%的赎回，那就将引发恐慌。

But if enough people get fearful and spooked and like, if that 20 of the publicly reported market really does go into, like, you know, 45% withdrawals on, a major BlackRock or Blackstone fund within that area, then that'll cause, a panic.

所以我不太明白你这句话的意思。

So I don't know what you're saying here.

你是说你觉得这可能是金融危机的开端？

Are you saying you think this could be the start of the financial crisis?

当然。

Certainly.

我的意思是，现在只能说一堆模糊不清的废话，因为除此之外你真的说不出什么。

What what I'm saying is that there's some sort of like, I'm saying a bunch of hand wavy bullshit because that's all you can say.

比如，目前我们缺乏足够数据，只能说已经看到了一些压力迹象。

Like, all you can say right now because we don't have enough in the numbers is that we've seen stressors.

我们看到有人正在撤资。

We've seen people pulling money out.

我们还看到信贷条款在收紧，比如在信贷协议中，你可能处于一种‘契约宽松’的状态，即对信贷的限制很少。

We've seen increasing credit terms on things where, like like, the arguments it's called, like, with with credits, like, either you're in, like, a covenant light type situation where there's not a lot of restrictions on the credit.

这正是人们谈论私募信贷时的一个观点。

Like, that's one of the arguments people say about private credit.

这在信贷领域很多地方都是如此。

It's true of a lot of things in credit.

自从我刚大学毕业成为初级分析师以来，人们就一直在谈论信贷市场中的契约宽松现象，而这种情况此后一直在加剧。

Since I was, you know, a budding analyst coming out of college, people have been talking about the covenant light environment within credit, and things have been going up since then.

但无论如何，这是事实。

But nonetheless, it is true.

然后他们开始改变这些条款，因为人们无法偿还。

And then they start, like, changing the terms on these things where people aren't paying back.

有一种东西叫‘以债付息票据’，也就是支付型票据。

There's something called like a pick note, a payment in kind note.

这意味着你可以选择不以现金偿还债务，而是用更多的债务来偿还。

And that means you have an option instead of paying your debt in cash, you can pay it with more debt.

好的。

Okay.

类似这样的情况正在增加。

And there's like things like that are increasing.

所以我们正在关注所有这些细微因素，它们基本上表明人们没有钱，也无法轻易从这些基金中取出资金，而且他们正在下调部分贷款的估值。

So there's all these little variables we're looking at that that basically say people don't have the money and people aren't able to get their money out as easily from these funds, and they're marking some of the loans down.

但在金融危机期间，问题正是如此。

But, like, during the great financial crisis, like, that was the problem.

如果你还记得《大空头》里的情节，史蒂夫·卡瑞尔当时就说：‘这到底是什么鬼？’

If you kind of remember in the big short one, like, Steve Carell is, you know, like, what the hell?

整个体系都在崩塌，但这些东西却还在按市价计价，对吧？

This whole thing's crumbling and these things are staying mark to market, right?

或者现在它们根本就没有按市价计价。

Or they're not being mark to market right now.

他们说这东西值九毛钱一美元。

They're saying this thing's worth like 90¢ on the dollar.

它根本一文不值。

It's not worth anything.

而我们将在账面上看到的是，人们之所以这么做，是因为越

And like, that's what we're gonna see on paper is like, wants to do this because the more No

越没人愿意承认现实。

one wants to admit the reality of it.

出于系统性原因，也没人愿意承认现实。

Nobody wants to admit reality for systemic reasons too.

所以，这最初是关于这些国家能否靠自身增长摆脱债务？

So this started with like, can these countries around the world grow themselves out of debt?

你在这里的意思是，如果情况如此，那么它们不仅无法靠增长摆脱债务，而且债务还会增加，因为总得有人印钱来填补差额。

Is what you're saying here, if this is the case, then not only can they not grow themselves out, but debt's gonna increase because someone's gonna have to print the difference.

是的。

Yeah.

总得有人印钱来填补差额。

It's just like somebody's gonna have to print the difference.

我认为，更重要的是要理解，高层次的东西其实很简单。

I I I think that, like, it's more important to understand that, like, the high level things are easy.

我之前所讲的更广泛的要点才是关键。

It's it's to the broader points I was making.

债务无处不在。

Debt's everywhere.

它正在各个领域出现裂痕。

It's cracking in all these different areas.

我们正在观察不同的领域，试图找出哪里最先出现破裂迹象。

We're looking at different pockets of it and trying to see where it's cracking earliest.

多个变量的叠加通常会导致结构性衰退。

Multiple variables combined is usually what creates like structural drawdowns.

我们可以从地缘政治层面看到，正在发生通胀现象，这使得我们在未来美联储政策上处于非常被动的境地。

We can see it at a geopolitical level that there's inflationary things happening, which puts us in a very tight position as it relates to fed policy going forward.

因为如果我们在通胀环境下被迫收紧政策，这恰恰与信贷收缩时我们需要的做法完全相反——在伊拉克这样的地方，他们只能印钞。

Because if we have to tighten under an inflationary environment, it's precise opposite thing that we'll need when credit is contracting, hard place in Iraq, they're gonna print.

我想我们都明白这一点。

I think we all know that.

我认为2020年已经证明了这一点。

I think we proved that in 2020.

在某些情况下，他们真的别无选择。

And and there's really no other option that they're going to have through some of it.

因此，由于对债务的高度依赖，这些白领经济体将不得不这么做。

So that's what the white collar economies are gonna have to do, because of their exposure to debt.

而以商品为基础的经济体将大量创造财富。

And then the commodity based economies are gonna be, you know, growing a lot of wealth.

因此，从信贷转向商品是每个人面临的巨大结构性转变。

So the movement from credit to commodities is the huge structural shift for everyone.

这就是

That's the

贸易。

trade.

所以看起来我们正陷入一个极其棘手的困境：如果私人信贷市场崩溃，同时由于油价上涨导致通胀再次上升——而石油几乎是整个经济中几乎所有东西的投入品。

So it seems like we're in a hell of a predicament where if the private credit market is breaking down, if inflation is ramping up again because of like oil prices, which an oil is an input to almost everything in the economy.

与此同时，我们还面临着全球地缘政治的不确定性，比如特朗普不断抛出各种出人意料的举措。

And alongside that, we've got like the geopolitical uncertainty of what's happening in the world, like Trump throwing wild cards out left, right and center.

你觉得今年会大规模印钞吗？

Like, do you think we have a big print this year?

以下是反对这一观点的理由。

So here's the argument against.

先给我讲讲支持的观点。

Give me the argument for first.

我的意思是，我们刚刚谈了私人信贷方面，但你觉得这是你的基本假设吗？

I mean, we've just done on the private credit side, but do you think that is the sort of is that your base case?

我认为当我们看看就业损失和消费者杠杆时，如果你去查看美联储的消费者信贷图表，比如按人均计算的两年后数据。

I think that when we look at like the I think if we look at job losses and consumer leverage, like if you go look at the, like consumer credit chart on Fred type consumer credit Fred, and then type per capita after two.

无论你是看绝对数值还是人均数据，都是这样。

Whether you look at it in absolute terms or per capita, it's just yep.

这太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

所以每个人背的债都比以往任何时候都多。

So everybody has more debt than ever.

因为没有

Because no

任何人拥有任何东西。

one owns anything.

而且每个人都被裁员了。

And everybody's getting laid off.

而且美国的每个人，总的来说，都从事某种类似邮件类的工作。

And everybody in The US is like, you know, generally speaking, some sort of like email job.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这些工作毫无价值。

And those are worthless.

它们早就毫无价值了，是的。

And they've been worthless for a long yeah.

我一直觉得它们早就毫无价值了。

I thought they're worthless for a long time.

只是信贷让公司能够轻易地维持这些岗位的存在。

It's just credit makes it easy for companies to let those exist.

但有了人工智能，这些岗位有多无价值就变得显而易见了。

But with AI, it's just way more obvious how much worth how worthless they are.

我觉得劳动力市场将改变一切。

I this this the labor market is going to change everything.

这就是为什么鲍威尔在很多紧缩政策上一直犹豫不决，我认为？

And that's just why why was Powell kinda holding out, I think, on a lot of the tightening?

因为他一直在关注劳动力市场发生的变化。

Was because he was following a lot of what was happening in the labor market.

我认为他当时说的是劳动力市场非常强劲。

And I think he was saying that the labor market's really strong.

但我认为这一切都将改变。

And and I think that all changes.

比如，我们来看消费者。

Like, so there we have the consumer.

我们有私人信贷。

We have private credit.

我们还有具有通胀压力的地缘政治紧张局势。

We have geopolitical tensions that are inflationary.

这就形成了一个平衡。

So that creates a balance.

如果真的要印钞，那将是他们有史以来最艰难的印钞行动。

It creates if there's going to be printing, it's gonna be the hardest printing they've ever done.

但即便如此，也没有太多其他选择。

But nonetheless, there there isn't much of another option.

还有核选项、侵略性举措、类似第四次转折的氛围，或者我认为源于身处伊拉克困境中的那些做法。

And and, you know, nuclear options, aggression, fourth turning type vibes or things that I think come from being in a hard place in Iraq.

这就是当前的局势。

That's the stage.

拯救我们的关键在于，就像斯科特·贝塞特在谈到特朗普政府去年宣布增加赤字支出时所说的：我们会通过增长来摆脱困境。

The thing that saves us, the thing that, you know, Scott Bessett was saying about when we're announcing, you know, an increase on deficit spending with the Trump administration, you know, last year, it was like, we're gonna grow our way out of it.

是的。

Yep.

这很巧妙。

It was cool.

我真的很喜欢他。

I really like him.

他确实很聪明。

He's definitely smart.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

他很聪明。

He's smart.

他会说这种话。

He'll say shit like that.

而且他经常威胁要揍人。

And he, you know, threatens to punch people in the face.

这太像他了。

It's so My guy.

是的。

Yeah.

我的哥们儿，老兄。

My guy, dude.

他就像是另一个试图管理世界上负债最重的国家的人。

He's just like another trying to manage the most indebted country in the world.

但说实话，我还没觉得我们深入探讨过他们如何可能通过增长摆脱困境。

But like, I don't feel like we've got into how they would possibly grow their way out

摆脱它。

of it.

我知道我一直回避这个问题。

Know I keep dancing around it.

是的。

Yeah.

我知道他们想把大量生产回流到美国。

Like, I know they want to bring a load of production back to The US.

也许这会发生。

Maybe that will happen.

而这会带来更多蓝领工作，这些工作不会被AI这么快取代。

And that's, I guess, more blue collar jobs, which won't be taken by AI as quickly.

但AI是摆脱困境的唯一途径吗？

But is AI the only way out of this?

这取决于生产力会发生什么变化。

It depends on what happens with productivity.

我们不了解的是AI的二级影响。

We don't because like what we don't understand yet are the second order effects of AI.

我认为人们倾向于以负面的方式看待这些问题，因为这样更容易。

And and I think people are framing a lot of those in a negative sense because it's easy.

我觉得每个人，至少从我看到的评论来看，都对AI持有一种以自我为中心的观点，认为在

Like, everybody's very I feel like everybody's been very or at least from the commentary I've seen, like, egocentric about their perspective on AI where In

哪方面？

what way?

我们思考问题的角度是，AI会取代人类吗？

From the perspective we think about it in terms of, like, will AI take over humans?

我们会被AI控制吗？

And, like, will we be controlled by AI?

人们在谈论这个问题。

And people talking about that.

我认为从更务实的角度来看，我们其实多少心里有数，我有个不同的观点，我们稍后可以讨论。

I think from more of, like, a macro perspective or not macro perspective, I think a pragmatic view of it is that we kinda know I I have a different case, which we can get into at the end.

真正重要的不是智能到底是什么，或者当AI真的具备意识时，这对我们的意义是什么。

It's not as important of, what intelligence might actually be and what it means when an AI is actually, like, you know, gonna be conscious or something to us.

但把这些都放一边，我们只知道AI正在进步。

But put putting all that aside, it's just like, okay, we know AI is increasing.

我们知道它的进步速度会显著加快。

We know the rate's gonna increase significantly more.

我们知道它越聪明，就能越快地提升自己，因为我们现在正是通过它来开发它。

We know the smarter it gets, the smarter it can increase its improvement because we're developing it through it now.

所以，任何软件都...

So, like, anything that's software

AI正在构建下一代AI。

AI is building the next AI.

AI正在构建下一代AI。

AI is building the next AI.

这是一个指数增长曲线。

That's an exponential growth curve.

是的。

Yep.

所以这简直太惊人了。

So that's like, woah.

每个人都感到恐慌。

And everybody's freaked out.

我不知道这是否真的值得如此恐慌，我更想思考的是，这对产业的第二层影响是什么。

And I don't know if it's as much of a cause to be freaked out as much as like, what I'm trying to think about is what's the second order impact on industry.

这不仅仅是人们被裁员那么简单，更重要的是事物成本结构的变化。

It's not just like, okay, people get laid off, but it's what changes in the cost structure of things.

我们该如何应对？因为实际上，我们正在重组整个组织方式。

How are we going because really what's happening is we're restructuring how we organize.

比如，从公司诞生之初，到那些延续了几个世纪的建筑和财产权形式，这些都在发生变化。

Like, if we look at from the inception of, like, the corporation to, like, these very old century old forms of construction and property rights that we've had amongst people, that's changing.

关键问题是，我现在能不能以个人身份创业、运营，并因此致富？

That's the thing where we're saying, can I start a business as a single person now and run it and become wealthy doing that?

是的。

Mhmm.

我的成本结构是怎样的？

What's my cost structure?

我的意思是，我们作为风投基金，经常看到这种情况。

I mean, we see it as a venture fund all the time.

我们和创业者交流时，总是在谈融资。

We talk to our founders, and we're we're talking about raises.

这非常实际、具体，他们说，我们这次融资最初打算将收益的百分之x用于招聘多名开发者。

It's very, like, practical, tangible things where they're saying, we we we're doing this raise where we initially wanted to allocate, you know, x percentage of the proceeds towards multiple developer hires.

我们不再需要这些人了。

We don't need those anymore.

初创公司是你能想到的最高效的事物之一。

Startups are just one of the most efficient things that you could be looking at.

这非常简单。

It's like very easy.

成本低得多。

The costs are so much lower.

因此，个人成为企业家的新模式可能正在出现。

So that there could be a new model emerging for the individual to be an entrepreneur.

是的。

Yep.

然后我们正在见证人们如何围绕这一点进行组织。

And and then we're we're witnessing how people organize around that.

所以人们会说，好吧。

So people are like, okay.

好吧，如果我要自己来做，你会看到大量关于AI的帖子疯传，内容都是教人怎么用AI，比如‘这是如何最好地进行提示’。

Well, if I'm gonna run it myself and you see all these posts going viral of, like, AI slop about how to use AI, people saying, here's here's how you prompt best.

但这一切中确实有非常有价值的东西，因为现在关键技能变成了：如何用英语从这个大语言模型中获取输出？

But there there are really valuable things in all of this because now the skill set is changing to how do I get the outputs using the English language from this LLM model?

所以。

So

我昨天刚和Vora的杰西·波斯纳做了一期关于这个话题的节目。

I just did a show with Jesse Posner on this yesterday from Vora.

他当时也说了一些非常有趣的观点，认为我们今天拥有的开发者将不再是擅长‘感觉编程’的人，因为现在一切都取决于语言。

And he said something really interesting there as well, where he was basically saying the developers we have today are not gonna be people that are good at vibe coding because it's all about language now.

他认为，接下来最有优势的将是哲学家。

And he thinks it's like the philosophers that are gonna have the next leg basically.

完全正确。

Totally.

那些语言能力强的人，我觉得这个观点很有趣。

People who are strong linguists, I think that's an interesting take.

因为语义现在在编程中变得很重要。

Because semantics now matter in coding.

完全对，完全对。

Totally, totally.

我觉得确实，语义在编程中如此重要，这很有趣，因为语义本身就蕴含在训练中。

I think with, yeah, it's interesting how much, yeah, semantics matter in coding because semantics are inherent to the training.

这很有趣。

That's interesting.

对。

Yeah.

这非常有道理。

And and that makes a ton of sense.

对吧？

Right?

所以会有类似这样的连锁影响，我们需要关注。

So there's there's knock on effects like that that we're gonna be looking at.

有多少英语专业的学生，就像那些当咖啡师的穷艺术家？

How many English majors that were, like, you know, starving artists working as a barista at a coffee shop?

也许他们会成为顶尖的氛围程序员。

Maybe they're gonna be exceptional vibe coders.

是的。

Yeah.

像这样的事情。

You know, things like that.

这是一种二级效应。

That's a second order effect.

初创公司会怎么样？

What happens to startups?

就像我现在看到的那样，任何行业，只要你打算开始做点什么，边际成本都会降低。

Like, when we look at it the way I see it now is that the marginal cost any sort of industry, you wanna go start anything.

做这件事需要一些前期投入。

There is some sort of upfront cost that it takes you to do that.

得雇这些人，筹集这笔资金。

Gotta hire these people, raise this amount of money.

有些比其他容易得多。

Some are much easier than others.

在其中一个极端，你只是开一家服务类企业。

At at one end of the spectrum, you just have like, you know, starting up a services business.

你做咨询工作。

You do consulting.

我去跟人交谈，如果他们喜欢我的建议，就会付钱给我。

I just go talk to people if they like my advice, like they pay me money.

没什么固定的创业成本。

You know, not a lot of fixed startup costs.

另一个极端是开一家银行，你得花数百万美元获得联邦特许执照才能入场，还有无数其他事情要操心。

The other end of spectrum, we have something like starting like a bank where you gotta go spend millions of dollars to get a federal charter to even begin to play in the game and a million other things you gotta worry about.

参与某件事的固定成本，在整体层面上正在急剧下降。

The fixed cost to participate in something is kind of, you know, at a at a aggregate level dropping off a cliff.

而对于软件行业内的企业来说，成本更是断崖式下跌。

And and for businesses within software, it's completely dropping off a cliff.

以至于这可能都不再算作一项业务了，因为个人就能创造出这些产品。

So much so that it may not even be a business anymore because individuals can create that.

就像你不需要专门雇人来打扫卫生，因为你自己打扫太容易了。

In the same way that, you know, you don't have a service for, you know, cleaning because it's so easy for you to clean or something.

你知道，我们每天都会做各种各样的事情。

You know, there there's all these different things that we do every day.

而软件正变得越来越像这样——它将变得如此简单，以至于我们可能根本不需要外包了。

And, like, that's kind of what software is becoming is something that we it's gonna become so simple, we may not even need to outsource it.

这一趋势对其他行业、人们以及我们的组织和结构方式产生了深远的连锁影响。

So that that trend has so many knock on implement implications for other industries and people and how we structure and organize.

对我们来说，真正有趣的是，我们如何看待人工智能与创业者之间的关系，以及它如何形成不同的方法论和组织结构。

And and I think what's really interesting for us is, you know, how we've been looking at, you know, AI as it relates to founders for having a playbook of different hierarchies and structures.