债务螺旋、滞胀与比特币为何胜出——对话James Lavish

问题在于你开始看到企业倒闭、违约频发。这种危机具有传染性，这些公司开始裁员，失业率开始攀升。经济陷入衰退，而物价仍在上涨。这太糟糕了。

The issue is that you start seeing companies closing, defaults. There's some contagion there, and they start getting laid off these companies. Unemployment starts to rise. You go into recession, yet prices are still going up. It's awful.

投资者会逃向黄金这类避险资产。我认为他们也会转向比特币，因为通胀率仍在上升。如今我们财政赤字高企，经济衰退只会让赤字进一步扩大。全球都是如此，不止美国。我们的整个经济基础都建立在借贷、杠杆和债务之上。

Investors will flee to things like gold. And I think they would flee to things like Bitcoin because you still have inflation rates rising. Now we're running such high deficits, fiscal deficits, and get into recession just makes the deficits wider. The whole world, it's not just The US. I mean, our whole foundation is built on borrowing, leverage, and debt.

这意味着必须持续扩大杠杆和债务规模才能维持运转。我的密码是2422。该死。对，他们俩都在达拉斯全职工作。

And so that means that you must have expansion of leverage and debt to keep going. Well, mine's 2422. Damn. So, yeah. They're both working in Dallas full time.

他们是做什么的？奥赞特是个网络安全分析师，但也不完全是。他拿钱干的事就是黑进公司系统。靠，这太酷了。

What are they doing? Ozant is a he's a cybersecurity analyst, but not really. He's a he basically gets paid to hack into companies. Damn, that's cool.

像是渗透测试那种？

Like pen testing kind

对，就是他的工作。他是个渗透测试员，但同时也在红队——他们甚至会实地突破物理安防。

of stuff. Exactly what he does. He's a pen tester, but he also He's on red team, so they actually physically break into places too.

卧槽！这简直是最酷的工作了。

No fucking way. That's the coolest job ever.

他简直就是在给我讲故事。我心想，认真的吗，你听起来像杰森·伯恩。

And he's literally like telling me the stories. I'm like, seriously, you sound like Jason Bourne.

这也太疯狂了。所以就像那个

That's so insane. So what like the

另一个红队被抓了。真的。没错。

The other red team got arrested. Serious. Yeah.

所以情况就是CEO会说，你可以攻破它。

So what happens is like the CEO say, you can break it.

对，他们会...好吧，找出漏洞。漏洞然后他，他们会搞定的，懂吧？

Yeah, do they, okay, find Vulnerability. Vulnerabilities and he, they'll figure it out, you know?

然后 然后

And And

他们会用社会工程学手段。如果他们

they'll social engineer it. And if they

如果他们真的破门而入被抓，我猜这些都不能播，因为这他妈太有意思了。

get arrested, if they're like physically breaking in, I assume none of this can be in the podcast because it's fucking interesting.

呃，我们可以播。

Well, we could do it.

我是说，我们正在录音。

If I mean, we're recording.

如果

If

他们真的闯进来然后被捕，我估计啥事都不会发生。

they actually get in and they get arrested, I assume nothing happens.

问题是这样的，那支团队被捕时，他们没设置保护措施。所以他们放任团队被抓进监狱。因为他们不想让在场的公司员工知道实情，对，不想让他们发现这是假的。所以就让那些人被捕入狱，当然最后都被释放了。

Well, that's the thing is like, so when that team got arrested, they didn't have the breakers in place to protect the team. So they allowed them to get arrested and get brought to jail. And then they had to Because they didn't want the employees who were there at the company And to know what was going on. Yeah, to see that it was not real. So they let him get arrested and they had to go to jail and they obviously got released.

所以现在他们设置了保险措施——如果被抓或警察到场，现场总会有人知道内情。

So now they put in fail safe where if they do get caught or arrested or the police come, then there is always somebody on-site who knows what's happening.

这是我听过最酷的工作。

That's the coolest job I've ever heard.

我知道，是不是很疯狂？

I know, isn't that crazy?

太疯狂了。他对比特币感兴趣吗？看起来他

That's insane. And is he into Bitcoin? Seems like he

应该...其实是他带我入门的。真的吗？是的，因为当我...我之前讲过一点这个故事，2020年、2021年我离开德克萨斯的对冲基金时，我是沃斯堡一家对冲基金的运营总监。他不知道我要做什么，他说：'爸，我知道你不知道接下来要做什么，但你应该重新看看加密货币'，因为他知道我之前接触过。那时我开始研究一切，买了些垃圾币，买了卡尔达诺、以太坊，还有一些比特币。

should Well, be into he's actually the one who got me into all this. Oh, really? Yeah, he's the because when I was I've told this story a little bit before but when I was leaving my hedge fund back in 2020, 2021, I was the COO of a hedge fund in Fort Worth and I was leaving because I'd left Texas. And he didn't know he's like, dad, I know you don't know what you're gonna do next, but you should probably give this crypto thing another look because he knows I had seen it before. And that's when I started looking at everything and I bought the garbage, know, I bought Cardano and Ethereum and started and some Bitcoin.

我开始做研究，当然那时候是2021年。当时我的认知远远落后于你们。我只把比特币当作古老无聊的第一代加密货币。我太无知了，即使在华尔街工作这么多年，对它完全一无所知。

I started doing research and of course, back then, this is '21 now. Back then, brain was like I was way behind where all you were at that point. And I just looked at Bitcoin as the old boring first cryptocurrency. I was so ignorant. Even being on Wall Street all those years, just completely ignorant to it.

但那时我开始研究，听你和彼得的节目，看迈克尔·塞勒的所有动态和播客，很快意识到必须把资金从其他币种撤出。于是我卖掉所有那些，全部换成比特币，开始定投，做更多研究，买更多，再研究，再买更多。最终我明白了，我想进入这个世界，因为现在一切对我来说都说得通了。这是其中一件...

But that's when I started doing research, listening to you and Peter and watching anything that Michael Saylor was doing and his podcasts and figured out pretty quickly that I had to get my money out of the other ones. And so I sold all of that and put it all into Bitcoin, just started dollar cost averaging and doing more research and buying more and doing more research and buying more and doing more research. And eventually, was like, I wanna be in this world because this now it all makes sense to me. And so That was one of the things

让我恍然大悟的事，因为我也经历过类似阶段，玩了一段时间的山寨币。直到2018年才真正转向'唯比特币'。我记得当时还在想...

that clicked for me was like, because I did the same thing where I shitcoin for a while. And then like 2018 is when I properly came around to being like Bitcoin only. And I remember thinking like, where are

那些聪明人？那正是我想去的地方。

the smart people? Like that's where I wanna be.

所有这些，真正聪明的人都在比特币领域。刚开始很有趣，那大概是2021年吧？我记得你刚开始在推特上活跃起来，我看到你的帖子就觉得，这人挺有意思。我们当时正考虑第一次邀请你上节目。

And all this, like the really smart people were in Bitcoin. It's funny when you first So was that about 2021? Yeah. I remember when you first like started appearing on Twitter more and I saw your post and I was like, this guy's interesting. We were looking at getting you on the show for the first time.

比特币圈对新人的怀疑总是存在的。我当时就想：这人靠谱吗？我联系了几个人，他们都说没问题，你应该邀请他。我记得在贝德福德和人聊天时还问过：这个James Lavish是谁？

And there's always like a degree of skepticism about anyone new in Bitcoin, I think. And so I was like, is this guy legit? And I reached out to a few people and like, no, this guy's legit. You should get him on. And so that's, I remember being in Bedford and talking to someone being like, who's this James Lavish?

James谁？你当时来势汹汹啊。其实事情是这样的，我开始分享一些东西。这一切源于我做研究时发现，作为对冲基金和机构投资领域出身的人，我掌握的这些知识和经验在圈内没人讨论。

James who? Yeah, you came in firing. I did, well, happened was I was, I just started sharing stuff. It all started actually, I had started doing research and listening and I knew that I had this I was coming from this world of hedge funds and institutional investing. And I knew that I had this knowledge and experience that just wasn't being talked about in the world.

那时我才接触比特币大概五六个月，正深陷兔子洞无法自拔。某个周六早晨，我看到推特空间有个活动叫《比特币的机构投资》，觉得挺有意思。

And then I was sitting there and it was only a few months into maybe five months, six months into my Bitcoin journey and like really getting down the rabbit hole. And I was sitting there on a Saturday morning and there was Twitter Spaces. And it was kinda because we had Clubhouse during the pandemic and then kind of shifted over to spaces. And it was something, the title of the spaces was like institutional investing in Bitcoin. I was like, oh, that looks interesting.

我点进去发现是个叫Mike Alfred的人在主持。我就安静听着，可能同时还在看英超联赛。突然收到通知说邀请我当嘉宾，我整个人都懵了：等等，为什么选我？

And I click on it and there's some guy named Mike Alfred was running it. And I was like, cool. I'm just listening and I'm just like sitting, I'm probably watching Premier League, just sitting there listening and all of a sudden I get this notification that says, you've been invited to be a speaker. I'm like, wait, what? Why?

当时我可能只有500个粉丝，丹尼，其中大部分还是作家——因为我妻子是作家，我关注了她圈子里的人。但我从不在推特活跃，所以发东西基本没人互动。关于这个我稍后讲个故事。

I think I maybe had 500 followers and the vast majority of them, Danny, were writers because my wife being an author. I followed all the people who were in her world, but I wasn't active on Twitter ever. And so I didn't really have any followers. Like if I posted something, might not get any engagement. So I'll tell you a story about that in a second.

总之，我被邀请上台时心想好吧，毕竟我在Clubhouse待过，知道是怎么回事。然后迈克突然说，嘿，你的背景挺有意思的——他其实是在质疑我的资历。于是我开始讲机构投资者合规购买比特币的难题，比如获取密钥和助记词那些事。我记得当时边讲边看着关注数从5人涨到10人。

But anyway, so I get invited up on stage and like, okay, and I had been in clubhouse and so I knew what the deal was. And then Mike just said, hey, your background looks interesting. Basically, he was calling me out saying, are you legit? And so I just started talking about the challenges of institutional investors buying Bitcoin properly, getting keys and all that stuff and getting their key phrase. And I remember I was watching and I started talking and then like five people followed me and then 10 people followed me.

我当时就觉得，哇，这有点意思。原来通过这种语音空间真的能建立社群。我很快意识到自己谈论的是个鲜少被提及的话题——那些投资委员会闭门会议里的真实运作机制，集体决策流程，繁文缛节，以及机构特有的龟速行动力。对，事情就是这么开始的。

Was like, wow, okay, this is kind of interesting. So if I get on these spaces, I can actually start forming a community. And I realized really quickly that what I was talking about hadn't been talked about much. And the real behind the scenes, how this stuff actually works in the investment committee meetings and how they come to a decision and it's collective and there's a lot of red tape and sometimes it's glacial because these institutions are, they just move very slowly. So yeah, so that's kinda how that came about.

有意思的是，当时你谈论机构接纳比特币的议题（毕竟萨尔瓦多买入后这成了热点），大家都以为会有大批公司跟进，但直到最近才真正爆发。现在这些问题还存在吗？那些官僚程序是否已经消除了？

It's interesting because back then I assume when you're talking about institutional adoption of Bitcoin, this is since Sailor bought really, this has been like a topic that everyone's talked about. And everyone thought that after Sailor we'd have tons and tons of these companies piling in and it never really happened until quite recently. And it does seem like that's now snowballing. When you talked about the issues of institutional adoption then, are those issues now no longer relevant? Do you think that kind of red tape has been removed?

ETF一举解决了这些问题，快得惊人。这本质是操作难题——机构投资者既要履行受托责任，又要承担个人职业风险。有时候你会用职责当挡箭牌，毕竟谁都不想担责。具体什么意思呢？

It has with ETFs. One fell swoop, so, so fast. That's the operational issue because when you're institutional investor, you've got fiduciary responsibility and then you've got like this personal risk as well when you're doing this stuff, which is professional risk. So you've got to perform your duty and you kind of hide behind that sometimes because if you don't wanna take on this professional risk. What do I mean by that?

比如你要买实物比特币并持有助记词，那么问题来了：谁来掌控这个钱包和签名设备？是你自己？和首席投资官共管？还是需要法务团队介入？

I mean, if you're going to buy Bitcoin, real Bitcoin, and you're gonna have your key phrase. Well, okay, well, who's gonna take control of that wallet, that signing device? Is it gonna be you? Are you gonna do it with a chief investment officer? Are you gonna have your legal counsel involved?

这还只是第一个关卡。实际操作中人们最先考虑的其实是：这玩意儿到底是什么？在哪里交易？虽然开会时这些议题会被往后排。

I mean, like that's just the first thing. Like how is that really gonna work? And that's actually what people think about first, but when you're sitting in those meetings, that's kind of down the line. It's first of all, it's like, what is this thing? Where does it trade?

我愿意承担职业风险？没错，因为首要问题是——就算你作为基金经理理解并看好比特币，交易渠道呢？Coinbase？Kraken？2021年那会儿Coinbase虽然存在，但机构根本不熟悉，后来FTX又暴雷...

I'm willing to take career risk. Well, yeah, because that's first, like even if you think you love it, even if you're an investor and portfolio manager understands it and gets it and loves it, wants to invest in it. The problem is where are you gonna trade it? Coinbase, Kraken, like what are these things? Back then 2021, yeah, Coinbase was there, but institutional wise, don't really know that we had, then you had FTX happen, everything.

所以这确实很可疑。那是个需要克服的大障碍。然后你们怎么处理，比如谁来持有？通常你们不负责托管。这些机构喜欢的是通过大银行和对冲基金来帮他们解决托管问题。

So it was really sketchy. And that was just a big hurdle to get over. And then where do you, like who holds it? Like you don't custody normally. So what these institutions love is they love having custody taken care of for them through, least with the big banks and hedge funds.

希望他们的主经纪商来处理

Want like their prime broker to take care of

对他们来说。有趣的是这正是他们想要的，因为多重签名在这方面似乎很完美，比如CEO、CIO、CTO、CFO以及法务等人都可以持有一把密钥，采用三选五或类似机制。看起来完美，但他们就是不愿意碰这个。

that for them. It's funny that that's what they want because multi sig seems perfect in that sense where like CEO, CIO, CTO, CFO, like legal all these people can have a key in like a three or five or whatever. Seems perfect, but they're just not willing to touch that.

但如果他们都在飞机失事中遇难呢？因为这些高管经常一起出行。所以在董事会上就会提出这些问题，然后大家就说，好吧，怎么办？我也不知道。干脆先搁置吧。

But what if they all go down in a plane? Because they often travel together, these executives. So it's like all that stuff comes up in boardroom and it's like, well, what? Okay, I don't know. Just let's just Put pin it it over.

然后ETF产品推出后，砰，一切都变得如此简单。就像，我们知道这是贝莱德、富达、Bitwise发行的，没问题。我们知道这些机构是谁。拉里·芬克的认可印章。对，我们知道发起人是谁，但它在哪里交易？

And then you had the ETFs come out and boom, it was so simple. It was like, well, we know it's issued by BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, fine. Okay, so we know who those institutions are. The Larry Fink stamp of approval. Yeah, so we know who the sponsors are, but then where does it trade?

在纽约证券交易所。在哪里结算？在你的主经纪商那里通过DTC。托管在谁那里？你的主经纪商。

On the New York Stock Exchange. Where does it settle? DTC at your prime broker. Who's custody in? Your prime broker.

就像买普通股票一样。就像买标普ETF，没什么区别。而且据说它持有底层比特币，所以与资产挂钩，你可以看是否有溢价。我是说，这一切都很简单。因此这很快吸引了一些观望的机构和大量对冲基金入场。

It's just like buying a regular stock. It's like buying the spiders, there's no difference. And it supposedly owns the underlying Bitcoin, so it's attached to the asset and you can see if it's a premium or not. I mean, it's all very simple. And so that brought in some institutions who were sitting on the sidelines and a lot of hedge funds really quickly.

可能是这样

This might be

这或许是个关于比特币的愚蠢问题，不太理解这些机构实际如何运作。但他们可曾考虑过，他们实际上并未像对待证券那样托管这些资产，本质上就是在承担风险？

a stupid like Bitcoin a question, not understanding how these like institutions actually work. But would they ever consider the fact that they're not actually taking custody of this being like a security, like basically being a risk?

是的。我们都知道这是有风险的，非零风险。大体上，他们多数人不会考虑这点，因为对他们个人而言保管密钥风险更大。而且从可能性来看，像贝莱德这样的机构丢失密钥的概率更高...确实如此。所以他们不会那么想。

Yeah. It is, we all know that it's a risk, it's a non zero risk. By and large, most of them are not thinking about that because it's a bigger risk for them personally to hold keys. And that it's much more likely in the realm of possibility that they lose keys BlackRock doesn't have the Yeah, that's really true. Yeah, so that they're not thinking that way.

这是更高的职业风险。如果你弄丢了价值1亿美元投资组合的密钥，你就出局了。彻底完了。这是个严重问题。

It's higher career risk. You lose keys to a $100,000,000 portfolio, You're out. You're done. That's a That's a problem.

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CoinKite make the best, the most secure Bitcoin hardware wallets that you can possibly buy. So they have this one right here, which is the coal card mark four. They're Bitcoin only. They have two secure elements, verifiable source code, completely air gapped by design. They really are the best hardware wallet that you can buy.

他们刚推出的Coldcard Q同样出色（展示实物），具备Mark Four全部安全特性，还新增多项功能：全QWERTY键盘（外观像老式黑莓手机）、更大屏幕显著提升操作便利性、NFC读写器、二维码扫描器，甚至内置了我非常喜欢的加密密码管理器。

And they've also just come out with the Coldcard Q, which is this one here. It has all the same security features as the Mark four, but it has a few new features. So it has a full QWERTY keyboard. If you're listening, this thing looks like a old school BlackBerry, much bigger screen, which makes it way easier to use. It has an NFC reader, a QR code scanner, and it even has a secure password manager built in, which I really love.

没错，如果你还没有Coldcard，那你就做错了。不仅如此，总有人问我身后这个——这是实时显示比特币价格的Block Clock，现在显示10.5万美元/枚。

Yeah. If you don't have a cold card, you're doing it wrong. Not only that, people keep asking me about this behind me. This is the block clock right now. It's telling me it's a $105,000 Bitcoin.

这也是CoinKite的产品。访问coinkite.com，使用优惠码WBD可享全店95折。回到你接触比特币的经历...

That's also made by CoinKite. So head over to coinkite.com. If you use code WBD, you get 5% off store wide. So go to coinkite.com and use code WBD. So back to like you coming into Bitcoin.

我一直特别欣赏你能把复杂话题拆解透彻——比如在接触比特币前我对宏观经济一窍不通，是你的解读让我进入这个领域。最近你写的两篇通讯让我受益匪浅。

One of my favorite things that you've always done is break down these pretty complex topics. Like, I I never knew a fucking thing about macro before Bitcoin. Like, this was my introduction to this whole world. And you break these down so simply. And you've done two newsletters recently that I really enjoyed.

其中一篇是关于穆迪下调美国债务评级的分析。

One, which is on The US debt being downgraded by Moody's.

所以我

So I

想谈谈这个。穆迪是最后一家下调评级的机构，对吧？

wanna talk about that. So Moody's were the last ratings agency to downgrade it, is that right?

是的。另外两家标普和惠誉在过去几年里已经下调了评级，而穆迪一直按兵不动。我们说的是什么？债务的最高评级是AAA。

They were. So yeah, the other two had already downgraded, S and P and Fitch had already downgraded them over the last number of years. And then Moody's just sat on the sidelines. So what are we talking about? Well, the highest rating in debt is AAA.

那是顶级评级，对吧？美国一直是全球储备资产，美国国债。所以你

That's prime, right? And so The US was always, I mean, it's the global reserve asset, right? The US Treasury. So You

肯定找不到更好的债务了。

surely can't get better debt.

确实找不到更好的债务了。这应该是无风险的，十年期美国国债本应是无风险的。重点就在这里。后来发生了几件事，其中之一是预算之争。

Surely you can't get better debt. Like this is riskless. Like this is supposedly the ten year US Treasury is supposed to be riskless. That's the point. Well, then we had a couple of things happen and one of them was a budget battle.

如果我没记错的话，我记得是标普首先下调了它们的评级。

And I believe it was S and P that downgraded them first, if I remember correctly.

显然，这里的S和P并非指实际的S&P，那只是标准普尔的简称

And Just S and P obviously is not the actual S and P. That's standard

标准普尔是同一家公司，只是业务领域不同，属于不同部门

Standard and it's the same company. Just that this is a different area, different division.

对，就是这么回事

This is that, yeah.

所以他们下调评级并非认为美国会违约拒付债券。这里人们容易误解。AAA级意味着绝无违约风险，对吧？而AA级则是无限接近AAA，但仍存在些微风险。那么既然美国实质上不会违约，为何还要下调评级呢？

So they downgraded not because they think that The US is going to default and not pay the bonds. So this is where people get a little bit tripped up. AAA is like, there's no risk whatsoever that you're ever gonna default, right? Then you've got AA, which is, it's like as close to AAA as you can be obviously, but there's something there. Okay, so why would they downgrade The US if they're never gonna default really?

即便历史上确实发生过违约——那次预算之争要追溯到...让我查下简报，不想说错时间——是1979年，技术上构成了违约。当时情况是：双方陷入预算拉锯战，要知道1979年所有流程都靠纸质文件处理

And even when they did default because this budget battle, it was back in wanna go back and I've got the newsletter here, I don't wanna quote the wrong timeframe. But it was Yeah, 1979 is when they technically defaulted. So what happened? So they were in this budget battle. And back in 1979, everything was done by paper, right?

政客们反复扯皮，不愿提高债务上限。终于在午夜时分达成协议，但留给财政部的时间太紧，来不及完成利息支付的信封盖章和寄送，导致短暂逾期——不过很快就全额补上了

So they're in this battle and the congressmen are going back and forth and they're fighting about it, fighting about it. They didn't wanna raise the debt ceiling. Finally, they get to a solution and they raise it, but it was at like the midnight hour. And it didn't give the treasury enough time to stamp the envelopes and get them out the door with their interest payments. And so they tripped the payment and they made it up really quickly.

所有债权人最终都获得偿付，但技术上构成了违约。这就是我们讨论的重点。就像林恩常说的：主权国家以本币发债时永远不会真正违约，大不了印钞还债。技术性违约指的是支付逾期后补足，就像1979年那次

They made everybody whole, but technically they defaulted. So that's what we're talking about here. Because Lynn talks about all the time is like, you're a sovereign that issues debt in your own currency, you would never default. You'll just print more currency and buy the debt to make sure that you're not defaulting. But the technical default is that you trip a payment and then you make everybody whole later, which is what happened in 'seventy nine.

实际上没有人，你其实没有对任何人违约。这就像他们政治博弈太久的事实一样。他们决定提高债务上限太晚，结果错过了支付期限，然后才纠正。

No one actually, you're actually not defaulting on the debt for anyone. That's just like the fact that it was politicking for too long. They decided to raise the debt ceiling too late and they missed the payment then made Right.

好的，没错。回顾2011年，类似的事情也发生过。当时是标普先动手的——其实是惠誉先降级，然后标普跟进。

Okay. Right. And then back in 2011, it's the same kind of thing happened. That's when S and P, so it was Fitch who did it first and S and P did it.

做了什么？

Did what?

不，不，抱歉。标普在2011年金融危机后率先下调了美国评级。是的，2011年那次，然后2023年惠誉加入了他们的行列。好吧。

No, no, I'm sorry. S and P had downgraded The US first. In 2011 after the financial crisis. Yes, in 2011, then 2023 is when Fitch joined them. Okay.

但这为什么重要？你为什么会关注这个？你看债券投资者对此感到担忧。你怎么知道他们担心？通过期限溢价就能看出来——这意味着债券以高于正常水平的收益率交易。

But why does that matter? Why do you see that? So you see bond investors get worried about this. And how do you know that they're worried? Well, you see term premium, see premiums that meaning that the debt trades at a higher yield than it normally would.

因为（你可以计算出来）目前十年期国债的期限溢价大约在80到90个基点，本应更高——我们稍后会讨论。出现这种情况是因为投资者担心通胀和债务洪流：谁来接盘？这意味着他们要求为即将到来的债务潮获得补偿。我们看到人们有点担心通胀，这就引出了滞胀问题。我们可以稍后讨论，但人们和投资者都在担忧，债券投资者更是不愿重蹈2022年覆辙——当时利率上升导致债券贬值，他们持有的投资组合市值缩水20%-30%。他们如何自我补偿和保护？

Because, and you can calculate it out, the term premiums are somewhere around 80 basis points or 90 basis points right now for the ten year, it should be higher, but we'll get to that in a second. But the reason that you have that is because investors are concerned about inflation and just this deluge of debt, who's gonna buy all of it, which means that they wanna be compensated for that deluge of debt that's coming. We're seeing that people are a little bit worried about inflation, which gets us to stagflation. We can talk about that in a minute, but the people are concerned about that, investors are concerned about that and bond investors are like, they don't wanna buy ten year, twenty year, thirty year treasuries and have what happened back in 2022 all over again, where interest rates go up, the bond is worth less and they're sitting on this portfolio of marks that are down 20%, 30% again. So how do they compensate themselves and protect themselves?

他们会要求更高利率，这就是债券义警登场的时候。这些市场自发力量会说'没门'——倒不是有组织行动，而是投资者环顾四周后达成共识：'这里需要更高利率'。他们并非合谋，但彼此心照不宣。

Well, they demand a higher rate and this is where the bond vigilantes come in. Bond vigilantes are the ones who are saying, no way. It's not like a group of, it's just that They're investors are looking looking around, they're saying, yeah, we need a higher rate here. And they're not colluding, but they're recognizing each other like, I need a higher rate too.

所有人看到的都是同样的情况。

Everyone's seeing the same thing.

没错，所以接下来你会得到这个期限溢价。最后一部分是，你面临通胀问题，担忧利率风险，保守的利率风险既来自通胀，也来自我们已知即将到来的债务洪流。我喜欢狗狗币。他们正在消除臃肿和欺诈这很好，但他们不会平衡预算。这是当然的。

Right, so then you get this term premium. And the last piece of that, so you've got inflation, worry about interest rate risk, conservative interest rate risk because of both inflation and because of the deluge of debt that we know is coming. I love Doge. It's great that they're getting rid of fat and fraud, but they're not gonna balance the budget. Of course.

这根本不可能发生。现在这一点比以往任何时候都更清晰。你说得对。我是说，我从一开始就在讲这个。太过分了。

It's just not gonna happen. That seems more clear than ever right now. You're right. I mean, I've been saying this for since the start. Too much.

数字上根本行不通。不过没关系。现在的问题是最后一部分——政治派系严重分裂，对吧？民主党和共和党几乎无法...他们甚至不能交流。不像八十年代或至少九十年代那样，他们至少还能对话。

The math is not gonna work. So But that's fine. The issue here is that the last part of that is now you've got this deeply divided political faction, right? So you've got the Democrats and the Republicans just don't They almost can't even They they can't even speak. Like it used to be back in the eighties at least and the nineties, they could at least talk Yeah.

跨党派地保持理性。现在两党之间完全不可理喻。这意味着每个党派都在试图诱使对方削减他们的项目，伤害他们的选民以获得更少的选票。我们都知道，这就是运作方式。

Across the aisle and really kind of be reasonable. Totally irrational. They're totally unreasonable between the two parties now. So that means that each party is trying to trick the other one into making cuts into their programs to hurt their constituents to get fewer votes. We know that, it's the way it works.

但问题在于他们在这场斗争中如此 entrenched（根深蒂固），风险在于我们再次逼近那个时间窗口，窗口关闭时我们可能会触发支付违约。当然他们会弥补，会让所有人不受损失，不会完全违约，而是技术性违约。然后美国债券的信用违约互换价格开始上涨。所以我

But the issue here is that they're so entrenched in the battle that the risk is that we go right up against that window again, it closes and we trip a payment. Of course, they'll make it up and they will make everybody whole and they won't fully default, it'd be a technical default. Then credit why do default swaps on The US bonds start to get more expensive. So I

确实想讨论信用违约互换，但我们能先多谈谈评级吗？因为我想理解的是，他们到底怎么评判这些东西？比如什么是

do wanna talk about credit default swaps, but can we talk a little bit more about the ratings first? Because what I wanna understand is like, how do they actually judge this stuff? Like what is

他们评判的标准是什么？是的，如果你真这么想还挺有趣的。如果你看微软或苹果的债务，他们用来确定你债务的指标非常明确，比如你的偿债覆盖率，也就是你的收入与需支付利息的比例等等。这些都是他们考察的量化指标。但到了主权债务评级，我这里有张图表可以分享（在我的通讯稿里），基本上他们看的是这些主观因素：经济实力、制度和政府实力、财政实力、对突发风险的敏感性，这些因素相互影响，形成评分瀑布图。然后他们还会加入其他考量因素。

the criteria they judge it on? Yeah, it's pretty funny if you did, If you're looking at like Microsoft or Apple debt, it's very clear the metrics they're using to determine your debt, your coverage ratio, like how much you're earning versus how much interest you have to pay and all that. There's all these metrics that they look at, it's pretty mathematical. Then you get to sovereign debt and I've got a, you can share this chart that I've got in the newsletter, but it's basically they look at all these touchy feely things, economic strength, institutions and government strength, fiscal strength, the susceptibility to event risk, and that all feeds into each other and it goes into this waterfall of scoring. And then they add on other considerations.

这是

This is

就像你说的那样，对，基本上就是——我也不知道该怎么形容——全凭感觉？

what you describe as just Yeah, And so it's basically just like, I don't know how's it feel?

就是这么回事。好笑的是，在读你通讯稿前，我对评级机构的全部认知来自《大空头》里那个场景：他们去标普公司，和那位女士交谈后才发现，原来评级机构完全按银行的意思给评级。

Then that's literally it. So the funny thing before I read your newsletter, the only thing I really knew about the ratings agency was that scene in the big show where they go to, I think it's to S and P and they're talking to the lady there and it comes clear that basically they just give the banks whatever rating they want.

没错，因为银行付钱请他们评级。不像我们个人信用评分——不知道澳大利亚情况，但在美国，三大征信机构根本不需要知道你的住址或银行账户，他们只看你的债务覆盖率、负债使用率、营业额等指标，按公式算出分数。而我可没付钱给益博睿让他们给我打分。

Correct, because they're being paid by them to rate them. Yeah, so it's not like us where we're being, I don't know what it's like in Australia, but in The United States, we've got the three credit agencies and they just determine, they don't have your address right. They don't have your banks right.

但

It's just like, but

他们就像...他们只管计算你的债务覆盖率之类的指标，负债率达到某个百分比，营业额多少，按他们的公式直接出分数。但我又没花钱让益博睿给我评分，是他们主动评的。所以这就是...

they're just like, they just determine your debt to coverage ratio or whatever, Your debt usage is a certain percentage, you have this much turnover, whatever it is and they have their metric and then they just give you a score. But I don't pay Experian to give me a score. They just do it. So that's the,

是的。所以他们本应是独立的，但实际上只是与银行合作？

yeah. So are they meant to be independent but in reality, they just work with the banks?

某种程度上是的，他们本该独立。理论上独立，但你能看出其中有些

Kind of, they're meant to be independent. They're supposedly independent, but I mean, you can see there's a little bit

冲突存在。那么从AAA评级降到AA级，实际意味着什么？这会改变银行购买这些债券的运作方式吗？还是说本质上

of a conflict there. So in terms of going from AAA to AA rated, what does that actually mean? Because does it change any of the dynamics for like the banks buying these bonds or is it kind of just

美国失去AAA评级更多是象征性的。真正对主权国家造成伤害是当评级跌至投资级以下，比如BB+。抱歉更正一下，BBB+或BBB、BBB-才是投资级。BB+属于非投资级。一旦跌破投资级，低于BBB-进入BB级时——评级顺序是AAA、AA...这时机构就不能持有你的债券了。

still the The US losing its AAA status is more symbolic than anything. So no, the only time it starts to really hurt a sovereign is when you fall below that investment grade, double B plus. Once you fall I'm sorry, the triple B plus or triple B, triple B minus. The double B plus is non investment. So once you fall below investment grade, below triple B minus, so when you go to double B, so it goes triple A, double A, Then they're just institutions that can't hold you.

因为你不再是投资级。比如养老基金就不能将其纳入投资组合。

Like you're not investment grade. So they can like pension funds or they can't put them in their portfolio.

所以你会被归类为投机级而非投资级。没错。顺便好奇问下，MicroStrategy的债券会是什么评级？你

So you go to being like rated as speculative rather than investment. Exactly. And like, just interestingly, what would a micro strategy bond be rated at? Do you

知道吗？他们评级一直不好。我记得他们干脆撤销了评级申请。

know? They haven't been rated well. So I think they just withdrew the ratings is what they did.

我明白了。

I see.

问题在于，对他们来说，他们目前可能并不寻求——虽然最终显然会希望养老基金参与。是的，迈克尔面临的挑战就在这里，你刚才也提到了——他的债券属于投机级或无评级。关键在于，他已成功进入对冲基金主导的大规模可转债市场，但要真正吸收420亿美元甚至更多的债务（比如700亿），就必须突破这个圈子。

The issue So for them but they're not looking for Maybe eventually they want pension funds to be obviously. Yeah. You're gonna need So the challenge for Michael, this is his challenge and you you kinda hit on it right away here with the speculative grade of his or no grade. The issue is he's tapped into this massive convertible bond market with the hedge funds, but he needs to move outside that to really be able to soak up $42,000,000,000 more of debt, you know? And so, or even more than that, he's like 70,000,000,000.

所以问题在于，他必须找到方法转向不同类型的证券，让这些机构能够购买。为此，他需要更大的资金池，必须离开对冲基金的投机领域，进入真正有实力的养老基金和捐赠基金市场。最终他还是需要获得评级，但他通过发行永续优先股巧妙地绕过了这个问题——这些虽不是债务，却能支付票息。

So the issue is that he's gotta find a way to to move out into different, know, securities that that these institutions can buy. So because of that, he needs a larger pool of capital and he's gonna move out of that hedge fund speculative space and get into pensions and endowments that can actually do it. So he'll have to eventually get ratings. But he's kind of found a way around that that's actually ingenious in that he's got these, the perpetual preferreds. And those are not debt, but they do pay a coupon.

机构可以持有这些优先股并获得可观回报。这是个有趣的解决方案，而且股权稀释效应更小。

And institutions can own those and get a nice rate of return on those. So it's an interesting way to get around that. And it's actually less dilutive.

有意思。我一直不太理解优先股——当人们谈论垃圾债券时，到底什么情况下债券会变成垃圾债？

Yeah, that's interesting. I've never quite understood the preferred, so when people talk about like junk bonds, when does something become a junk bond?

当你进入B评级范围时就算垃圾债了。任何投机级的投资都属于这个垃圾领域。

Trips over junk when you're in the, like the B rating. Okay. Right? So it's like anything is like that investment and it's speculative, that's kind of junk area. Okay.

这里人们常会混淆——垃圾债与困境债的关键区别在于：一旦跌到CCC-级，你就成了垃圾债。这意味着你已停止支付利息，违约后就被定义为垃圾/困境债。这时候你实际上已处于违约和财务困境状态。

The difference between, and this is where people kind of get mixed up. The difference between, the important difference between junk and distressed is like, once you hit like triple C, like minus is then you're Now you're junk. Meaning you're not paying your interest payments. You've tripped interest payments and now you're declared junk and distressed. So I mean, yeah, you're in default, you're in distress.

所以你从垃圾债或投机性垃圾债转向了困境债券，现在你正处于死亡螺旋中。你的债务深陷困境，作为投资者，你知道自己拿不到利息支付了。早期在对冲基金时，我们交易和投资了大量困境债券。

So you've gone from junk or speculative junk to distressed and now you're, you know. You're in the death spiral. You're the debt, you're in deep trouble. So now you know as an investor that you're not getting your interest payment. So if you're in, we traded and invested a lot of distress in my early days in the hedge funds.

比如我们曾持有TWA债券，它们最初是投机性垃圾债，后来陷入困境。但你以低于面值的价格买入——关键在于，如果你以折价买入债券并在到期时获得面值偿付，就能赚取差价。比如以70美分买入1美元面值，就能赚30美分，回报率极高。即使没有票息，只要相信能拿回面值，也可能获得可观回报。

And what you would do like TWA for instance. We owned TWA bonds and they were speculative and junk and going into distress. But you buy them for less than par, which means that if So the calculation for people to understand is that if you buy a bond for less than par and it matures and you get par for it, well, you've made that. So if you bought it for 70¢ on the dollar, you just made 30¢ on the dollar, which is a huge return. And so you can have some great returns even if you're not getting coupon, if you believe that you're gonna get par back.

困境债券极少能按面值偿付。你必须确保有足够资产覆盖——要么通过资产变卖清算，要么被收购使债券得以全额偿付，但这概率极低。你购买的债券可能在资本结构任何层级，从有全部资产担保的优先债券到次级担保债券，但本质上都是对资产的追索权，所以资本结构中的层级至关重要。

With the distressed stuff, you don't ever get par or very rarely you get par. You have to have enough asset coverage that they sell off the assets and liquidate or whatever or get bought out or something that they make the bonds whole, really unlikely. Even though the bonds you're buying are anywhere on that capital structure, right? So you can buy fully secured bonds that are secured by all the assets down to subordinate, but secured, but they're secured by assets, but it's a claim on them, right? So you're gonna have tiers of where you are in the capital structure.

这就是为什么人们需要明白股票处于最底层。如果你买入的公司债务已陷入困境，意味着一旦破产，股票很可能归零。好，回到困境债券投资——

And this is why people need to understand the stocks is like, they're at the bottom. They're at the very bottom. So if you're buying something that a company that's debt is distressed, that means that if the company goes bankrupt, the stock is likely worthless. Yep. Okay, so back to buying distressed bonds.

作为困境投资者，你需要计算回收概率和预期回报，深入研究资产负债表、债务优先级等所有可能优先于你对资产追索权的因素。通常银行债务会排在最前面，比如花旗的信贷额度必须优先偿还。回到TWA案例，我们持有的困境债券原本通过清算能获得丰厚回报（当初是以极低价买入），结果一架飞机坠毁了。

So what you would do is you're going to determine what the probability is and how much you would get back and all that. But you're really looking at when you're distressed investor, you're digging deep into balance sheets and obligations and other debt and all these, anything that may come before you as a claim to those assets if you're going to liquidate the company. Likely the one thing that will come ahead of you is bank debt, which is totally secured and it's like they got this line of credit from Citibank or something that's got to be paid first. So, but back to TWA, so we had this distressed debt and it looked like a liquidation was like we were gonna be paid handsomely against what we bought it for, for pennies on the dollar. And then a plane crashed.

天啊！简直疯狂。这些债券价格剧烈波动——从20美分飙到30美分又跌到15美分。丹尼，这可不是纽约证券交易所的正常交易。

Oh shit. It was crazy. And so you see this debt and it would just trade like mad. Like you go from 20¢ to 30¢ to 15¢. This is Danny, this isn't like trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

这完全通过电话交易，市场透明度为零，纯粹是混乱博弈。当年迈克尔·米尔肯就是靠这个发家——他操纵着这个市场，在这边8美分买入，那边38美分卖出，而没人知道真实行情。

This is all phone calls and you don't know where the market is and you're trying to pure chaos. So, and that's where Michael Milken made a killing back in the day because he was trading this stuff and he was he was the man making the markets. He would buy it over here for 8¢ on the dollar, sell it over here for 38¢ on the dollar. And nobody knew the market.

是啊，太疯狂了。后来发生了什么？就这样结束了吗

Yeah, it was wild. And what happened? Did that end

归零了吗？哦，TWA？不，我们拥有它的债权。具体是什么债权我记不清了，但确实有。

up going to zero? Oh, the TWA? No, we got claims on it. I can't remember exactly what the claims were, but yeah.

那么回到美国被降级这件事，现在这种降级是否纯粹是象征性的，实际上无关紧要，只是个信号？没错，正是这个意思。

So back to like The US being downgraded, is this sort of purely symbolic at this point and doesn't actually matter, it's just like a signal? Yes, that's the point.

关键在于除非跌破投资级，否则确实不重要，但也不太可能跌破。我是说...当然不能保证。重点是标普、穆迪和惠誉这些机构一致认为我们的债务发行失控了。显然我们必须大量印钞来维持这场闹剧，因为我们根本没有能力偿还发行的债务。这显然是个问题。他们在债务发行说明里也明确指出了这点。

The whole point is unless it falls below investment grade, it doesn't really matter, but it's not going to, I mean Yeah, not guaranteed. The whole point is this was the S and P, Moody's and Fitch, you know, agreeing that our debt issuance is out of control. And we clearly must print a lot to keep this whole charade going because we're not making, we're not covering the debt we're issuing. So it's clearly, it's a problem. So, and they've said that in their issuance.

而且我认为这不只是美国的问题，全球都在发生主权债务危机。那么所有国家都被降级了吗？不不，德国应该还是AAA级。但美国确实被降级了，这涉及到整个特里芬难题，周三我会在Nakamoto舞台上和Lynn、Mark Moss详细讨论这个问题。

And I assume this isn't just a US problem because this like sovereign debt crisis happening all over the world. So are all this nation states getting their debt downgraded? No, no. I think Germany is still AAA. So it's a, yeah, no, The US is getting tagged and this goes into the whole Triffin dilemma, which I'll be talking about with Lynn and Mark Moss on Wednesday on the Nakamoto stage here.

这个难题在于：如果你是全球储备货币，所有人都需要你的美元，因此你不得不持续处于赤字状态。没错，持续的贸易赤字。这会给你带来问题，因为出口量不足，于是就陷入两难境地。那么在持续赤字的情况下如何填补缺口？我们应该谈谈信用违约互换，因为...

But which is if you're the global reserve currency, everybody needs your dollars and so you have to be in know Constant deficit. Yeah, constant deficit, constant, exactly trade deficit. And so it produces issues for you because you're not exporting as much and so you have this dilemma, right? And so how are you covering that while you're running deficits? And so we should talk about the credit default swaps because

这就是交易这个的市场对吧？你是...

that's like the market that trades this, right? Do you

想解释一下那是什么吗？是的，我是说，你们都看过《大空头》，里面提到的信用违约掉期，他们确实解释得很简单，但我们再简单过一遍。信用违约掉期是一种衍生品合约，本质上就是一份合同，一张纸。这些合约由国际掉期与衍生品协会（ISDA）监管。

wanna explain what that is? Yeah, so I mean, you guys all saw the big short, the credit default swaps and they did explain it simply, but let's just go through it really simply. A credit default swap a is derivative contract. It's literally just a contract, a piece of paper. And these things are governed by ISDA, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

标准ISDA协议就是一份文件，规定了这些违约掉期如何运作的标准化条款。然后根据你们的协商加入具体条款。明白吗？就像有个模板协议，然后你们填入具体执行条款。对于国家信用违约掉期来说——这和房地产市场的情况不同。

And so you have standard ISDAs, which is just a document that it's standardized on how these default swaps work. And then you put in the terms according to your negotiation. Okay, so you got kind of a boilerplate agreement and then you put in the terms of how this is gonna go. For credit to swap swaps, credit default swaps for countries. Okay, so it was different with the housing market.

那些是针对抵押贷款支持证券的违约掉期，到处都是，数量庞大。但现在这个，是针对美国所有主权债券的信用违约掉期。如果美国财政部出现支付违约，那就可能触发信用违约掉期的赔付。

Like these are mortgage backed securities that you were getting default swaps on. And now, and those are all over the place, so many of them. But with this, it's like, okay, you're getting a credit default swap on all sovereign bonds of The US. So if the US Treasury trips a payment, well, that likely triggers the credit default swap to be paid out.

所以本质上你是在赌违约？

So you're betting on default essentially?

你赌的就是违约，不管是技术性违约还是实质性违约。根据我上周写那篇文章时的行情，每1000万美元信用违约掉期的价格是5.9万美元。这些交易都是大额进行的，我们个人账户根本买不起。交易金额动辄数千万甚至上亿美元。合同条款就是：只要发生违约（无论是否技术性），你就能获得赔付。

You're betting on default whether it's technical or not. And so you're paying as of now or as the last week or a couple of weeks ago when I wrote that article, it's like $59,000 per $10,000,000 of credit default swap. So these things trade in chunks, you and I couldn't just buy a credit default swap for our PA, your personal account. Like you're trading tens of or hundreds of millions of dollars for these swaps. So that legal contract just says that if they default technical or not, then you get paid out.

那既然知道不会真正违约，你在防范什么？防范的是因华盛顿政治僵局导致的两到四周付款延迟。虽然最终会全额支付，但对冲基金的问题是——即便能拿回全款，首先你可以把这当作赌注。但持有这些的真正原因是：你把这些债券作为抵押品，需要保持流动性。

So why would If you know that they're not gonna really default fully, then what are you protecting against? Well, you're protecting against two to four weeks of non payment because of a gridlock in Washington. We all know you're gonna get made whole, but the problem is if you're a hedge fund, and even if you're gonna get paid whole and made whole, the issue is, first of all, you could just make it a bet. But there's a reason to hold those because you own these bonds as collateral. So you need liquidity.

没错，你可能急需流动性。如果缺乏流动性，这边有笔债务等着用这些证券来偿还，你就会违约。那就变成可控风险了。

And you may need liquidity, exactly. So if you don't have liquidity, then you may miss an obligation over here that you are depending on these securities to have to meet that obligation. Then it's available control.

好的，那么这就是债券的保险。这份简报中最让我感兴趣的是美国信用违约互换（CDS）与其他国家的对比情况。

Right, so. So that's insurance on the bonds. The most interesting thing to me in this newsletter when I was reading that is how The US credit default swaps compared to the rest of the world.

这难道不疯狂吗？

Isn't that crazy?

确实疯狂。放到具体背景下看，比如与英国、德国、法国等主要欧洲国家相比如何？

It's crazy. Like to put it into like context, how does it compare to like the major European nations like The UK, Germany, France, etcetera?

没错，通常美国应该与它们持平或更优，意味着互换交易价格会更低。但今天你看监控屏——这些在彭博终端都能看到，网上应该也能查到世界主权CDS之类的数据。虽然不如彭博实时。彭博数据就是行业交易标准。具体来说，英国目前是22，即每1000万美元需支付2.2万美元。

Yeah, mean, typically The US would be right there with them or better, meaning the swaps would be trading cheaper. But today, you look at the monitors and you can see all this on Bloomberg, and you can all see it on I think World Sovereigns CDS or something online if people wanna look at it. That's not quite as dynamic as the Bloomberg. Like this Bloomberg is like, that's the standard you're gonna be trading off of this. So to give you context, The UK is trading at 22, it's $22,000 per 10,000,000.

法国是...英国这边，德国是13.9或14对吧？瑞典13不错，荷兰13，瑞士11。日本19——尽管他们正经历严重的经济崩溃，这很有趣不是吗？

France is So you have The UK, Germany is trading at 13.9 or 14, right? I mean, pretty good Sweden, 13, Netherlands 13, Switzerland 11. Okay, Japan 19. Even though Japan's going through an absolute Correct, meltdown. Isn't that interesting?

但他们证明了会不惜一切代价托底。每天都会托底。澳大利亚是13.7。那么欧洲较弱的国家呢？

Okay, but they have demonstrated they will Backstop everything. Backstop every single day. Exactly. Australia is 13.7. Okay, so what about the weaker countries in Europe?

我们戏称'欧猪四国'的葡萄牙、意大利、希腊和西班牙，在金融危机时都陷入困境。德国当时...希腊算是被迫债务重组。希腊就像...

So what we call the pigs, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, were back in the great financial crisis, they were all in distress. And so Germany was, I mean, Greece was kind of forced to restructure their debt. Greece is like the

欧洲的经济烂摊子。

economic basket case of Europe.

没错，正是如此。所以你会认为这些国家都比美国更糟，对吧？意大利是55分，记住美国是56分。葡萄牙27分。

Correct, right. So you would think, those would all be worse than The United States, right? Well, Italy, 55. Remember, United States is 56. Portugal, 27.

西班牙36分。而希腊最糟糕，57.7分。太疯狂了。是的。所以美国跟希腊差不多。

Spain, 36. And Greece, the worst of them all, 57.7. That's wild. Yeah. So US is right there with Greece.

所以美国基本上和希腊一样有可能违约。

So The US is basically as likely to default as Greece is.

这就是市场他妈疯了的表现。

That's what That's the market fucking insane.

实际上现实情况是，市场表明如果美国出问题，会有更多人需要保护，这意味着对保护的需求大增。也就是说，对这种保险的需求更大了。

And really the reality is that the market is saying that a whole lot more people need protection if The US trips, which means that there's a lot more demand for protection. That means that, you know, there's just more demand for this insurance.

嗯。

Mhmm.

事实确实如此。但当你匆匆一瞥时，看着它就会觉得，哇，这真的很难看。

That's really what it is. But it when you glance at it, you look at it, you're like, oh, wow. That's really ugly.

本节目也由Iron赞助，这家纳斯达克上市的最大比特币矿企采用100%可再生能源。Iron不仅为比特币网络提供动力，还利用可再生能源为人工智能提供尖端计算资源。我们与创始人Dan和Will合作已久，对他们的价值观印象深刻，特别是对当地社区和可持续算力的承诺。无论您对比特币挖矿还是AI算力感兴趣，Iron都树立了行业标杆。详情请访问iren.com。

This episode is also brought to you by Iron, the largest Nasdaq listed Bitcoin miner using 100% renewable energy. Iron not just powering the Bitcoin network, they also provide cutting edge computing resources for AI, all backed by renewable energy. We've been working with the founders, Dan and Will, for a long time now and have been really impressed with their values, especially when it comes to their commitment to local communities and sustainable computing power. So whether you're interested in mining Bitcoin or harnessing AI compute power, Iron is setting the standard. Visit iron.com to learn more, which is iren.com.

本节目由Anchor Watch赞助。比特币持有者夜不能寐的担忧之一就是冷存储可能出现关键错误，这正是Anchor Watch的用武之地。他们的双重保障包括：时间锁定的多重签名保险库，以及伦敦劳合社A+评级的保险政策。您掌握私钥，Anchor Watch承担风险。

This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch. Now one of the things that keeps us Bitcoiners up at night is an idea of a critical error in your Bitcoin cold storage, and this is where Anchor Watch comes in. With AnchorWatch, you're protected by two things. You have their time locked multisig vault, and you have your own a plus rated Lloyd's of London backed insurance policy. So you get to hold your keys, and AnchorWatch holds the risk.

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So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, rent attacks, natural disasters, or just your own silly mistakes, you're fully protected by Anchor Watch. Rates for fully insured custody start as low as point 55% and are available for individuals and commercial customers located in The US. Speak to Anchor Watch for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage over anchorwatch.com. That's anchorwatch.com. So I did a show recently with Lynn, which was all about the trade deficits.

嗯。关于美国可能故意推动人们放弃美元作为世界储备货币，转向中性资产的观点。这些是否与之相关？这个嘛...

Mhmm. And this idea that The US might be intentionally pushing people to move away from the US dollar as the world reserve currency and looked like neutral assets. Does any of this tie into that? Well, that's

这就是症结所在，对吧？它迫使我们维持贸易逆差，迫使我们持续印钞并承受巨额赤字。问题在于我认为全世界都开始意识到这点。我们曾看到苗头——大约18个月前我们讨论过金砖国家的情况。

the tripping dilemma right there, right? So it's forcing us to keep these trade deficits and forcing us to continue to print and have these massive deficits. And the issue is that I believe the world is catching on. And we saw sparks of this and you and I talked about this, I think eighteen months ago about the BRICS nations.

当我们

When we

我们当时在讨论将比特币作为战略资产来保障债券的博弈论。那时人们普遍在谈论金砖国家要推出自己的货币来与美元竞争，但事实并非如此。实际情况是金砖国家想摆脱对美国国债的依赖，因为他们发现——从基本投资角度看——由于美国的通胀、持续财政赤字以及明显的货币供应扩张，这些债券的实际回报率是负值，他们正在亏钱。这是其一。

were talking about the game theory of adopting Bitcoin as a strategic asset to secure your bonds with. And that was when the people were kind of talking about, Oh, the BRICS is gonna come out with their own currency, it's gonna compete with the US dollar. And that's not really the case. What's happening is that the BRICS nations wanna get away from the US Treasury, meaning the Treasury bonds, because they see how number one, that just in basic investment terms, that they're losing money on real return on those because of the inflation in The United States and because of the relentless and Sorry, the relentless fiscal deficits and obvious expansion of the money supply, which means that they're getting a negative real rate of return on those bonds. And so that's one thing.

当然，第二件事是当我们冻结并没收俄罗斯持有的美国国债时。我在台上多次说过，这简直是史诗级的愚蠢操作，因为我们本需要所有人都持有我们的债券，结果却相当于告诉

Of course, the second thing is when we seized and The Russia locked treasuries. Yeah, the US treasuries from Russia. Again, I've said this on stage many times monumentally stupid play because we need everybody to own our bonds and then we basically told

他们：‘哦，顺便说一句’

them, Oh, by the way,

‘如果我们不认同你的行为，就会收回这些债券。但我们需要你们继续购买。’荒谬至极的政策。总之你会听到这些风声，但真相并非如此。

if we don't agree with what you're doing, we're gonna take them back. We need you to buy them. Yeah. Insane, stupid policy. Anyway, so yeah, so you hear these rumblings, but that's not really the case.

他们只是想要一种无需持有国债并因此亏损的贸易方式。现实就是他们想摆脱这种局面，避免资产被冻结或没收的风险。这就是为什么金砖国家会逐渐远离——对于不了解的人，金砖国家包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非，这些国家联合起来，还有其他国家也想加入。

They just wanna have a way to do business without having to hold treasuries and lose money against them. That's the reality. They wanna get away from that and not have be at risk to being have them being seized or frozen. And so that's why they'll move away from That's why the BRICS nations and for people who are sitting here saying, is the BRICS nations? Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, like those all got together and there's others that are trying to attach on.

他们当时在讨论使用一篮子货币

And they were talking about using like a basket of currencies

对，可能还有黄金。但这永远不可能

and Yeah, maybe gold. It's never gonna

虽然如此，但这不过是又一个象征，不是吗？就像你可以观察到的另一件事，表明世界正在发生变化。

happen but it's still Again, it's just like another symbol, isn't it? It's like another thing that you can look at to be like something's changing in the world right now.

没错，如果你要在某国做生意，当他们开始这样做时——哎呀，现在你就不再使用美元交易了。所以他们不再跨境使用美元，转而信任这些其他货币。你提到了比特债券

Right, so if you're gonna do business in one, then when that they're doing it, oops, well, now you're not doing business in dollars. So they're not cross borders in the dollar. Now it's these other currency that they're trusting. You brought a bit bonds

之前。真正有趣的是看看它们会被如何评级。

before. The really interesting thing that would be to see what they would be rated.

它们可能会是AAA级。是的，我想大概是这样，但这还很遥远。它们暂时不会有评级，会像MicroStrategy那样长期没有评级。

They would be because presumably they'd AAA. Yeah, well, I guess, yeah, presumably, but it's long way down the line. They Yeah. Won't have a rating for a while. They'll be with MicroStrategy with no rating for a while.

即使美国发行比特债券。

Even if The US issued bit bonds.

嗯，这真的取决于他们如何操作和担保。说实话，丹尼，这完全取决于那时全球对比特币的认知程度。因为目前它被严重误解。完全正确。所以回到机构投资者的话题，这才是关键。

Well, I mean, it really depends on how they do it and how they secure it. We're honestly, Danny, really depends on where the understanding of Bitcoin is globally at that point. Because it's so misunderstood right now. Totally. And so that's the big thing going back to institutional investors, that's the big thing.

是的，我们有了ETF，但那不是转折点。真正的转折点是当某个足够大的实体——比如苹果、微软或亚马逊这样的世界顶级公司——理解并接受它，将其纳入财务储备时。那时就会引发连锁反应，让所有人意识到：等等，这东西是认真的，我得赶紧跟上节奏。

Yeah, we got the ETFs, but that's not the watershed event. The watershed event is when you have somebody big enough who understands it, gets it, adds it to their treasury, like an Apple or Microsoft or something like that. Like one of the biggest companies in the world or Amazon. Then it starts this watershed of everybody's like, wait a minute, this thing is really for real. Like I've got to go get up to speed on it.

让我先了解一下情况，顺便买一些。这时候你就能全面理解了，因为很明显这东西会长期存在。这确实是数字黄金。

Let me get some while I get up to speed on it. And that's when you get broad understanding because then it's like, well, is clearly here to stay. This really is digital gold.

有意思的是，我两年来一直坚信Meta会这么做。让我震惊的是他们至今还没行动。我原以为他们会是率先迈出这一步的大公司之一。我也这么想。在讨论滞胀话题前最后说一点——你在通讯稿中提到'结构性特权正在被重新评估'。

It's funny, I've been convinced that Meta are gonna do this for like two years at this point. And I'm constantly shocked that they've not already. I really thought they were gonna be the big companies kind of take that leap. I did too. Last thing on this before we move on to the stagflation stuff, In the newsletter, you said structural privilege is being reevaluated.

我当时不确定你具体指什么。

And I wasn't a 100% sure what you meant by that.

我的意思是，结构性特权指的是作为全球储备货币赋予我们的优势——我们可以用全球储备资产持续维持各种赤字，无论是财政赤字还是贸易赤字。也就是说政府支出超过了GDP创造的收入，对吧？这意味着我们的税收低于支出。这种结构性特权就在于，由于美元的地位，我们可以不负责任地超额支出，因为全世界都需要美元。几乎可以说正因大家都需要美元，他们就需要通过债务来获取。

Well, I mean, meaning structural privilege being the global reserve currency gives us privilege that we get to run all these deficits with the global reserve asset because fiscal deficits, trade deficits, fiscal deficits. So meaning that our government spends more than we create through GDP, right? Which means our tax dollars are lower than what we spend. So the structural privilege is that, well, because we have the US dollar, well, we can be irresponsible over here with our spending because everybody needs dollars. So and almost have to be because everybody needs dollars, they need debt to use it.

所以我们必须持续发债。这种特权让我们能够超额支出。全世界都在被迫接受这些快速贬值的美元，这就是特权所在。这是结构性的。现在越来越多人开始质疑：等等，先暂停一下。

That's we need to keep writing like we just keep issuing debt. And so the privilege is we get to overspend. Everybody has to get these dollars that are being debased rapidly and that's the privilege. It's structural. And it's now people are looking at saying, hold on a second, time out.

这真是我们想要的方式吗？我们真的想持有这些吗？确实如此。Michael Howell最近发布的通讯稿中提出，十年期收益率其实应该已经超过5%了（目前是4.5%）。

Is this really the way we want to Do we really wanna own these? Yeah. Truly. And so, Michael Howell argues that he just put out a newsletter this last few days and he argues that the ten year should be trading above 5% already. It's at 4.5%.

他认为十年期收益率应该更高，因为我们面临的问题其实正通过债券发行方式被掩盖。具体来说，Scott Bissent在竞选期间多次严厉批评耶伦没有延长债务期限。确实，本应该...

But he's like, the ten year should be trading above that because the issues that we have are being They're actually being swept under the rug by the way that we're issuing bonds. And what I mean by that is that Scott Bissent criticized Janet Yellen. Really, he was really critical of her over the last few months before he took over in the campaign. But he was really critical that she had not termed out the debt. Yeah, would have

一直在短期端发行所有债券。

been issuing everything on the short end.

全部集中在短期端。对听众来说，这意味着他们没有大量发行十年、二十年或三十年期债券，而是主要集中于短期国库券。

Everything on the short end. So for your listener, meaning they didn't issue a lot of ten year, twenty year, thirty year debt. They stayed in short belly to the T bills.

比如一到三年这个期限范围。

Like the one to three year kind of range.

没错。甚至可能更短。现在所有债务都在短期端发行，这让投资者更容易购买，因为几乎没有久期风险或利率风险，可以轻松购入。但这其实是人为的量化宽松，某种程度上是收益率曲线控制。

Correct. And so, or even less than that. So now you have all this debt that's being issued in the short end, which makes it easy for investors to buy because there's really no duration risk or interest rate risk so you can buy those easily. And so, but it's artificially, it's kind of QE, it's kind of yield curve control.

因为这些债券比长期债券更具货币属性。

Because those bonds are more money like than the long duration.

对，它们更像货币。当你通过富达账户购买货币市场基金时，实际上就是在购买债券和国库券——这就是回购市场的货币基金运作方式。

Correct, they're treated more like money. The money market, when you buy a money market, your Fidelity account, you're buying bonds, you're buying T bills, That's the money market in the repo, that's what you're buying.

然后同样的人在批评这种做法后，自己也做了同样的事。

And then the same came in after criticizing it for doing that and did the same thing.

他意识到，天啊，我在这里无能为力。

He realized, oh my God, there's nothing I can do here.

长期需求根本不存在。

There's just no demand for long duration.

他原本赌美联储会大幅降息，让他能延长部分债务期限。但他们没有，十年期利率仍维持在4.5%。所以如果他现在开始展期，就要为美国支付利息，锁定已有的财政赤字，利息支出本已高达1.1万亿美元，还会更多。所以他不想这么做。他们仍在和美联储玩胆小鬼博弈。

Well, he made the bet that the Fed was gonna lower rates enough that he'd be able to term out some of it. But they haven't, the ten year is still at four and a half. So if he starts terming out now, he makes the interest payments for The US, he locks in that the deficit we're already running, he makes his interest payments, it's already at 1,100,000,000,000.0, they're gonna be even more. So he doesn't wanna do that. So they're still playing chicken with the Fed.

因此有人猜测，特朗普试图通过重挫市场来迫使美联储介入表态'好吧我们会降息'，但美联储没有。特朗普真这么打算吗？后来他是否退缩了？因为市场确实暴跌了，美联储却毫无动作，依然表示'我们不在乎股市，只关注通胀和失业率'。我不知道。

And so, some people speculated that Trump was trying to crash the market enough, the Fed would step in and say, oh yeah, we'll lower rates, but they didn't. Trump, was he trying to do that? And then did he blink because the market did crash and there was no movement from the Fed and they still were like, we don't care. We're not concerned about the stock market, we're concerned about inflation and unemployment. I don't know.

这很有意思。特朗普和伯尔森一直在向杰罗姆·鲍威尔施压要求降息，甚至试图找理由解雇他，我相信。

So that's been really interesting. Like Trump and Bersent have been really pressuring Jerome Powell to lower rates, even trying to find ways to fire him, I believe.

显然杰罗姆·鲍威尔更担心通胀问题，这就涉及到你提到的滞胀部分。或许该先定义什么是滞胀，再解释你预见的情况。

So Jerome Powell is clearly concerned about inflation and this kind of gets onto your stagflation piece. Like maybe it's worth defining what stagflation is and then explaining what you see coming.

对没经历过70年代的人来说，滞胀就是高通胀时期——商品价格上涨的同时经济却在衰退或停滞。我们在70年代和80年代初就经历过，当时石油危机和中东冲突导致油价疯涨。记住，石油是所有商品价格的首要构成要素，因为任何产品的运输和生产都离不开它。

Yeah, so for people who didn't live in the 70s, so stagflation is where you have high inflation. So the price of goods are going up while the economy is going down or grinding sideways and lower. And so we saw this in the 70s when I was a kid in the early 80s where we had the oil shock and you had a conflict in The Middle East and the price of oil went up like mad. Now remember, oil is the number one component for prices of everything. Because everything costs money to transport and create.

我们拥有的如此多的商品都是用石油或原油能源制造的，然后它们又通过原油能源运往世界各地。所以所有东西的价格都在飞涨，更不用说汽油价格了。我之前在通讯里讲过这个故事，因为没油，我不得不错过冰球比赛。真的吗？当时根据车牌尾号是奇数还是偶数，规定你只能在特定那周去加油。

So so many of the goods we have are created with oil or crude driven energy and then they're shipped around the world with crude driven energy. So prices of everything were just skyrocketing, not to mention the price of gasoline. I mean, I've told the story in my newsletter before, I had to miss hockey games because we didn't have gas. Really? And so because you were allowed to get, you had even number and odd number and you can go, depending if you were even or odd, you could go that week to get gas.

不会吧。我父母当时都要开车上班，但他们说油不够用。太疯狂了，我不知道还有这种事。好不容易排上队，要等两三个小时才能加满一箱油。

No way. And so my parents were both driving to work and they didn't, they were like, well, we don't have enough gas. That's crazy, I didn't know that happened. And then when you finally did get into line, it was like a two or three hour line to just get your tank, one tank of

太离谱了。

gas. That's insane.

当时确实很疯狂。

It was wild.

显然疫情后我们生活在高通胀的世界里，但与此同时，

And so like obviously after COVID we lived in a high inflation world, but at the

从技术上讲经济表现还不错，

same time, like the economy was like technically doing well as

股市还在上涨。

in stock prices were going up.

因为他们印了一大堆钞票，但是当然，

Because they printed a mother load of Of But course,

在滞胀情况下，你会面临同样的高通胀，但股价、股价可能会下跌。

in stagflation, you would have the same high inflation, but presumably stock prices, share price going down.

嗯，不是的。这实际上取决于具体情况，但没错，你完全可以看到这一点，因为你没有看到经济扩张，所以根据公司的不同，有些公司是逆周期的。所以整体而言，这真的取决于具体情况。但没错，如果你处于滞胀环境中，对一切肯定都不利。

Well, no. Well, it really depends on the situation, but yeah, you could absolutely see that because what you're not seeing is an expansion of the economy and so depending on the company, some companies are anti cyclical. So like across the board, it really depends. But yeah, if you have a stagflation environment, it's bad for everything for sure.

是的，就像我们自新冠疫情以来的那种情况，穷人日子很难过，因为所有东西都在涨价，你又不持有实物资产。在滞胀中，我猜对每个人都很糟糕。因为你既要面对通胀，资产价格又不见涨

Yeah, so in that scenario that we had since COVID, like it sucked to be poor because everything was getting more expensive, you didn't own real assets. In stagflation, it sucks for everyone I assume. Because you have both inflation and asset prices not

是啊，停滞或下跌，没错。所以你为什么会认为

Yeah, grinding or falling, yeah. And so why do you see

这将是即将发生的情况？

that as like the coming scenario?

嗯，我不确定这是否会成为现实。这是一个令人担忧的可能性，也是我密切关注的问题。我正在紧密观察经济指标，看是否有任何迹象。但是丹尼，每次我们得到一个指标，它似乎都与前一个相矛盾。

Well, I don't know if it is a coming scenario. It's one that worries. It's one that I'm concerned about. And I'm watching economic indicators closely to see if we're getting anything. But Danny, every time we get an indicator kinda conflicts with the last one.

目前还没有明确信号显示经济正在下滑或陷入低迷。虽然有迹象表明可能出现这种情况，但同时也存在很多干扰因素。比如观察生产者价格指数——这是能显示生产者为商品支付成本的领先指标之一，这些商品将被用于制造或转售给企业，最终由企业将价格转嫁给消费者。但难以确定的是，过去几个月里有多少商品是因企业试图规避关税而提前进口的，这其中的具体影响很难准确判断。

So it's like there's no clear signal that the economy is rolling over or grinding lower. There are signals that it is and whether But there's a lot of noise around it too. So if you look at producer price index, which is It's one of the leading indicators that you can see what the producers are paying for goods and then they're gonna use them to manufacture or whatever to sell to companies for them to pass on to the pricing to the customers. Well, what's hard to know is like in the last few months, how many of these goods were imported because the companies are trying to get, these producers are trying to get ahead of tariffs. It's hard to tell exactly what all that is.

所以确实存在

So there's been

数据中存在很多干扰因素。这说得通，因为在简报中你将七十年代的石油危机与如今的关税相提并论。这就是你认为这种对比合理的原因吗？

a lot of noise in the numbers. That makes sense because in the newsletter, you compared the oil shock in the seventies to tariffs today. So is that why that comparison makes sense to you?

没错，正是如此。石油危机确实会引发我刚才描述的情况。进口商品也会产生类似影响，别忘了我们是净进口国。这会推高商品价格，并最终转嫁给消费者。问题是企业会尽可能将成本转嫁给消费者。

Yeah, it's exactly why. So if you do, if you have the oil shock would create, it created exactly what I said. And a similar thing would happen with the imported goods, Because remember, we're a net importer, right? So that would impact the price of goods and they would be passed on. Okay, so here's the issue, the companies will pass them on to the consumers as much as they possibly can.

但小企业会被压垮，因为它们最终将无法继续转嫁成本，利润空间将不足以维持运营，进而开始拖欠债务，最终破产。这正是人们担忧的——小企业因高关税而倒闭，因为它们无法将涨价转嫁给客户。这时我们就会面临之前讨论的经济逐渐衰退的局面。要知道，这些小企业实际上支撑着我们的经济，美国经济大体上就是如此。问题在于你会看到企业接连倒闭违约，形成连锁反应——一家违约可能引发另一家违约，因为这些企业之间存在着依存关系。

But the smaller companies are gonna get crushed because they'll have to stop passing them on at some point and then they just won't be making enough of a margin of profit to continue to do business and they'll start tripping their own debt payments and then that's it, they go under. And so that's the worries that the small companies get crushed by high tariffs because they can't pass on that increase in pricing to their customers. And then you start getting into what we're talking about, which is an economy that starts grinding lower. Because remember, these small companies really, they drive our economy, The US economy by and large. And so the issue is that you start seeing companies closing defaults and it kind of rolls because you have this guy default that might trip somebody else default and then because you have this guy's depending on this guy.

这里存在某种传导效应。接着就会出现裁员潮，失业率开始上升，经济陷入衰退，但物价却持续上涨，形成最糟糕的局面。这就是滞胀——市场下跌，万物涨价，这完全与'金发女孩'经济（股市上涨且利率稳定或下降的理想状态）背道而驰。

So there's some contagion there. And then you just start getting people laid off and they start getting laid off these companies, unemployment starts to rise, you go into recession yet prices are still going up and it's awful. And that's where the stagflation is. You've got the market coming down, prices of everything going up and that's literally the opposite of nirvana, which is Goldilocks, which is you have the stock market rising and rates are either steady or lowering.

这简直就是最糟糕的情况。假设比特币不存在，在这种情境下你会如何配置资产来应对？

So it's literally the worst case scenario. So in that scenario, just for a second, assume Bitcoin doesn't exist. How do you like position yourself to do okay during that?

滞胀时期？是啊，你只能硬撑过去。太糟糕了。

During stagflation? Yeah. You weather the storm. It's awful.

没错。真的什么都做不了。

Yeah. There's literally nothing you can do.

真的什么都做不了。投资者会逃向黄金这类资产。我认为他们也会逃向比特币，因为别忘了通胀率还在上升。用股票作为价值储存的问题在于它带有固有的经济风险。如果用黄金或比特币储存价值，它们本身并不产生收益。

There's literally nothing you can do. Investors will flee to things like gold. And I think they would flee to things like Bitcoin because remember, you still have inflation rates rising. So the issue with using stocks as a store of value is that you have inherent economic risk. If you're using gold or Bitcoin as a store value, well, it's not kicking off earnings.

所以人们不指望从中获得收益。他们关注的是公司的健康状况。就像在说'天啊，我得把钱放在某个不会被通胀侵蚀的地方'。长期来看，黄金和比特币显然能保护你免受通胀影响。

So people aren't looking for earnings from that. They're looking for the health of the company. It's like, Oh God, I just got to park my money somewhere that it's not going to get eaten away by inflation. And if you look over the long period of time, obviously gold and Bitcoin will keep you protected from that.

有趣的是，无论我们处于哪种情况——高通胀、滞胀还是你解释的'金发女孩'经济状态。在我看来，比特币在所有这些情况下都表现良好。对对对，它肯定是世界上最独特的资产。

It's funny no matter which of those scenarios we're in, whether it's like high inflation, stagflation or this like Goldilocks zone you explained. To me, when I look at them, it's like Bitcoin does well in all of them. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's gotta be the most unique asset in the world for that.

是啊，确实如此。经济衰退不好，但人们仍会逃向避险资产。但有意思的是丹尼，现在我们的财政赤字已经很高了，如果进入衰退，赤字会进一步扩大。通常你会看到资金涌入十年期国债，收益率会从5%或4.5%降到2.5%甚至更低，因为这是避险资产。

Yeah, yeah, does. It is, it is. If recession is not good, but again, people will still flee to safe haven assets. But that's a scenario where if you get into recession, it's kind of funny, Danny, because now we're running such high deficits, fiscal deficits and you get into recession, it just makes the deficits wider. So normally, you would see this rush into the ten year treasury and the ten year treasury would go from 5% or 4.5% down to 2.5% or lower because it's a flight to safety asset.

但在我们讨论的这种情况下（这也是为什么会出现期限溢价），天啊，如果进入衰退意味着赤字会更大，十年期国债发行量会增加。而且他们还没完成债务展期。那会发生什么？目前我还没实际研究过...

But in the scenario that we're talking about, which is why we're seeing term premiums is, oh God, if we get into recession, that means that the deficits are gonna be even larger, there's gonna be more ten year treasuries. And they haven't termed out the debt yet. So then what happens? So right now I've not actually looked at the

今天的价格。比特币大概在109，

price today. Bitcoin's at like 109,

110千左右吧。

110 ks or something.

你怎么看比特币未来十二到十八个月的发展走势？

How do you see like the next twelve, eighteen months playing out for Bitcoin?

我认为这完全取决于——这也是为什么我同意Cross Border Capital的迈克尔·豪威尔的观点——他把黄金和比特币这类资产的价值周期与流动性的周期性扩张和收缩挂钩。为什么流动性重要？大家都在讨论M2货币供应量，这确实很关键，但它只是流动性的一部分。流动性本质上是——我们生活在一个债务驱动的经济结构中。不仅是美国，全世界都是如此。

I think it all has to do and this is why I do agree with Michael Howell from cross border capital is he looks at the assets like gold and Bitcoin and really attaches the cyclical values of that to the cyclical expansion and contraction of liquidity. Okay, why is liquidity matter? Everybody talks about M2 and that is very important, it's part of liquidity. But what liquidity is, we're living in a debt like structure economy. So the whole world, it's not just The US.

我的意思是，我们整个经济基础都建立在借贷杠杆和债务之上。因此要继续运转，就必须不断扩大杠杆和债务规模。这是必然的。所以你观察到的就是这种流动性周期，它涉及很多因素。

I mean, our whole foundation is built on borrowing leverage and debt. And so that means that you must have expansion of leverage and debt to keep going. Yeah. By definition. And so what happens is you're looking at this cycle of liquidity and that's a whole bunch of things.

再说一次，这包括央行流动性（比如量化宽松这类政策工具）、不展期的债务操作、影子银行体系（比如对冲基金和欧洲美元市场）等等。影响流动性的因素不仅在于债券发行量，还包括借贷所需的抵押品数量。

And again, it's like, it's the amount of it's central bank liquidity, you know, QE, that kind of stuff or acronyms that create liquidity or, you know, not terming out debt, that stuff. It's shadow banking, which is like hedge funds. And like Euro dollar market. Yeah, Euro dollar, it's all of that stuff. And some of the factors that go into that are not just, the amount of bonds that are out there or whatever, but it's the amount of collateral that is needed to borrow.

当市场出现波动时，波动率上升意味着保证金要求提高。为什么？因为剧烈波动通常伴随着资产缩水。这时银行和主要经纪商会提高最低抵押品要求（即所谓的'折扣率'）。比如你要买苹果或微软这种蓝筹股，通常需要支付6%的保证金，剩余部分可通过组合保证金融资。

And so when you have volatility in the markets, the increase in volatility means that you have an increase in margin. Why is that? Because when you have a really big increase in volatility, it's usually because you're seeing drawdowns. And so you have the banks and the prime brokers raise the minimum collateral, which is called the haircut. So if you're gonna go buy a stock, you're gonna go buy an Apple or Microsoft and blue chip S and P stock, you would typically have to put down 6% for that and you would get portfolio margining on the rest of it.

你可以用它借出94%的价值。但在市场震荡或高波动时期，那6%可能会升至20%、25%，我们在金融危机期间甚至在蓝筹股中也见过这种情况。这意味着你需要更多流动性，需要更多抵押品来支持借款，这会降低借款额度，因为你显然需要出售部分持仓来获取足够抵押品以向贷款方担保。这就会从市场中抽走流动性。所以当你看到高波动性时，这很不利，尤其是债券市场，因为债券是回购市场和影子银行回购市场的基础抵押资产，美联储也是如此。

You could borrow 94% against it. But then in the times of shock or times in high volatility, that 6% might move up to 20%, 25%, which we saw in the great financial crisis, even in blue chip stocks. And so that means that you need more liquidity, you need more collateral for that borrowing, which brings down the borrowing because you're obviously gonna sell part of your position to get enough collateral to secure that position with your lender. And so that draws liquidity out of the market. So when you see high volatility, that's not good, especially in bonds because bonds are the base asset to borrow against in repo markets and shadow banking repo markets, just with the Fed.

所以这很糟糕。当波动率指数走高时。对短线交易很不利。是的。所以，这就是问题所在，对吧？

And so that's bad. When you see the move index get higher. Was talking bad for the quick. Yeah. So, and that's the issue, right?

是的，我和杰克讨论过这个问题。这就是症结所在，也是计算的一部分。好的，回到你的问题——我认为今年比特币会怎样？我仍然认为流动性在扩张，你能看到这点，最近已经显现了。迈克尔的研究表明流动性周期为五到六年。

And so, yeah, I think Jack and I have talked about it. So that's the issue and that's part of the calculation. Okay, so this goes back to your question, what do I think is going to happen with Bitcoin this year? Well, I still think that we're expanding liquidity and you can see it, you've seen liquidity expanding recently. Michael's studies have shown that liquidity goes in five to six year cycles.

上一个周期已在底部，我认为到今年年底正好五年。

The last cycle bottomed out and it's gonna be five years coming at the end of this year, I believe.

所以他的

So his

观点是流动性将在2026年某个时候见顶。那么你会想，这意味着比特币也将在2026年见顶。别急，因为比特币通常会滞后约三个月，十到十二周。所以现在比特币会滞后于这个周期。如果一切如常，没有市场冲击——那我现在说的就全作废了。

point is that liquidity is going to peak at sometime in the 2026. Okay, so you would think, well, that means Bitcoin is gonna peak in the 2026. Not so fast because what happens is Bitcoin lags by about three months, by about ten to twelve weeks. So now Bitcoin is going to lag that. So if all things being equal, we don't have a market shock, which takes everything I'm talking and Throws out the window.

直接完蛋。对，没错。但如果没有市场冲击，我们继续按当前趋势到年底，我认为比特币将在明年上半年某个时候见顶，比如第一季度或上半年。具体数值是多少？

Right out the thing. Yeah, exactly. But if we don't have a market shock and we just keep continuing doing what we're doing through the end of this year, then I think that Bitcoin is gonna peak out somewhere in the first quarter of next year to half, like the first quarter, the first half of next year, it's gonna peak out. What's that number?

我不知道。不过确实有道理。因为最近我脑子里一直有个想法，就是明年中期选举前，特朗普会希望经济非常火热。非常火热。如果真是这样，那这两件事就完美契合了。

I don't know. That does make sense though. Because one thing that I've had stuck in my head for a little while now is that going into the midterms next year, Trump is gonna want that economy running really hot. Really hot. And so those two things then kind of align perfectly if that is how it

发展下去。完全正确。而且他想在中期选举前行动，对吧？是的。所以没错，正是这样。

plays out. It's exactly right. And he wants to write before midterms, right? Yeah. So yeah, exactly.

而且我知道你

And I know you

说不会设定具体价格，但我猜你并不认为150就是顶点吧。

say you're not gonna pick a price, but like I assume you're not thinking 150 is the top.

不，我认为到今年年底我们可能会达到150到180。但我不知道顶点在哪里，因为如果我们遇到那种狂热暴涨的情况，可能是300，也可能更高，我完全说不准。我的意思是，我不是那种会说今年能涨到一百万的人，但对我来说这已经很高了。你可能是错的。

No, I think we're gonna be 150, 180 by the end of this year. Don't I know where the top is because if we get into one of those blow off top instances Euphoria. It could be 300, it could be, I have no idea. Mean, I I'm not the guy who says it's gonna be a million this year but I don't know, it's big for me. You might be wrong.

我是说，我可能错了。我很乐意自己错了。

I mean, I might be wrong. I'd be happy to be wrong.

好的，非常感谢你，詹姆斯。你想让大家去哪里？告诉他们如何订阅通讯。

Well, thank you so much for this, James. Where do wanna send anyone? Tell them how to get the newsletter.

是的，新闻简报在Substack上，叫'The informationist'。你可以在我推特个人资料里找到链接，就是jameslavish.com。当然还有比特币机会基金，刚推出了第二期基金。

Yeah, so the newsletter's on Substack. It's the informationist. You can find the link in my Twitter profile. It's just jameslavish.com. And of course, the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, just launched Fund two.

不错。是的，我们进展顺利。第一个月就完成了募资目标的20%。目标是多少？5000万。对，所以我们目前表现很好。

Nice. Yeah, we're doing well. We've raised 20% of our goal already in the first month What's the goal though? 50. Yeah, so we're doing well already with it.

我们有些疯狂的投资，现在这些项目简直太野了。账面利润非常可观。当然只是账面利润。不过在股票发行前，我还不能具体谈论其中任何一个项目。

We've got some crazy, like these investments are just, they're wild right now. We have some huge paper profits. They're paper profits. Of course. But until shares are issued, I can't really talk about all of them, any of them yet.

但如果你对此感兴趣并且是合格投资者，只需访问bitcoinopportunity.fund填写基本信息。我们可以电话沟通，告诉你最新进展。

But yeah. So, and if you're interested in that and you're an accredited investor, just go to bitcoinopportunity.fund and just fill out your name and stuff. We can get on the phone, talk with you and tell you what's going on.

我太喜欢了。詹姆斯，非常感谢你，这次交流很棒。

I So, love it. Well, thank you for this, James, it's been great.

太棒了，每次来这里都很愉快。拉斯维加斯，宝贝，爱死这里了。

Awesome, it's been great to be here always. Vegas baby, love it.

拉斯维加斯宝贝。这周将会是...

Vegas baby. This week's gonna be an

简直一团糟，但我很兴奋。这会很疯狂的。好的，谢谢

absolute shit show but I'm excited. It's gonna be mental. Right, thank

全靠你了，

All you,

好的，谢了兄弟。

right, thanks buddy.