美联储政策转向、比特币与黄金之争及量化宽松回归 | 劳伦斯·莱帕德

所以，如果你考虑大量使用这些含银组件的电动汽车和电池，就会进一步增加需求。

And so if you took a lot of electric cars, a lot of electric batteries with these silver, you know, silver component, there's gonna be demand getting added there.

说到这一点，我认为其中一家公司——可能是三星——找到了我投资的一家公司，说：‘我们愿意以非常优惠的条件投资你们1000万美元，略高于市场价，但作为交换，你们必须同意将全部产量卖给我们。’

To that point, one of those companies, I believe it was Samsung, went to one of the companies I'm invested in and said, we're gonna invest $10,000,000 in you on very preferential terms, slightly above market, but in exchange for that, you're gonna agree to sell all your production to us.

那么，为什么一个白银的使用者要这么做呢？

Now, why does a user of silver do that?

他们确实这么做了，但并不是以固定价格，也不是想通过价差套利。

They do and not at some fixed price, they're not trying to arb the price.

我说，不管市场价是多少，他们真正担心的是供应问题。

I say whatever the market price is, they are worried about their supply.

他们知道供应紧张，因此愿意投资这家企业，帮助其发展，从而锁定稳定的供应来源。

They know supply is tight and they wanna have a guaranteed source of supply so they're willing to make an investment in the company to help them and lock in that supply.

所以，现在正在发生的就是这类事情。

So that's the kind of thing that's going on.

因此，这非常真实，而在比特币圈子里，我见过一些人说：‘看看白银的走势图吧。’

So, this is very real and you know, in Bitcoin land, others I've seen people say, well, know, look at the chart of silver.

这是一条抛物线。

It's a parabola.

这是做空。

This is a short.

它会像亨特兄弟时代那样崩盘，也会像2011年那样崩盘。

It's gonna collapse like it did with the Hunt Brothers, like it did in 2011.

我不太确定。

I'm not so sure.

我的意思是，你问我白银的目标价是多少。

I mean, you asked me my target price on silver.

我的意思是，几天内我们就会达到100美元。

I mean, we'll be at 100 in days.

我的意思是，上涨空间到底有多大？

I mean, how high up is up?

我真的不知道。

I just don't know.

但它被压制了太久，50美元一直是个上限。

But it's been suppressed for so long and 50 was ceiling for so long.

我们突破了那个上限。

We broke through that ceiling.

200美元是有可能的。

200 could be possible.

我见过500美元。

I've seen 500.

这并不疯狂。

It's not nuts.

我的意思是，贵金属很有趣，我经常这么说，人们总会笑，但贵金属没有上限，因为法币没有下限，对吧？

I mean, it's interesting that the precious metals, I say this a lot and people kinda laugh, but the precious metals have no top because Fiat has no bottom, right?

而且我还没预测会出现恶性通货膨胀。

And not predicting hyperinflation yet.

这并不是我的基本假设。

It's not my base case.

我只是觉得高通胀已经深深植根于这个体系中，几乎无法避免，除非让一切崩溃，而我认为他们不会这么做。

I just think high inflation is very likely built into the system and there's really no way to avoid it, I mean, other than letting everything collapse, which I don't think they'll do.

所以你觉得这场商品牛市还远未结束？

So you think this sort of commodity bull run is no way near over yet?

当然。

Absolutely.

我曾经说过，我将在我的信中再次强调，我认为我们现在才进入第二局。

I've said, and I I'm gonna say it in my letter, I think we're in the second inning.

我真的这么认为。

I really do.

这非常困难。

And it's very hard.

我的意思是，看看我的基金，已经涨了很多。

I mean, look, my funds up a lot.

我有投资者说，天啊，我们已经赚了这么多利润。

I've got investors saying, God, we've all these profits.

我们应该拿走它们吗？

Should we take them?

我说，是的，我们拿一小部分吧。

And I'm like, yeah, let's take a little bit.

今年我们实际上向投资者分配了基金的10%。

And we actually distributed 10% of the fund this year to our investors.

我说，是的，为了以防万一我们判断错误，拿走一点利润是明智的。

Said, yeah, let's, you know, it's prudent in case we're wrong to take a little bit of the profit off the table.

但不，我认为这属于我们还处于这类问题早期阶段的情况。

But no, I think that, you know, this is a case of we're in early days of this kind of a problem.

除非我们看到美国政府突然出现负责任的行为，比如预算平衡等等——每当我说这个，人们都会笑，因为这显然不太可能，但你知道，奇怪的事情也发生过，对吧？

Unless we see sudden, and when I say this, people always chuckle because it's not like, if we see sudden responsible behavior out of the United States government, you know, balanced budget, etcetera, that you know, it's well, look, it's not, you know, stranger things have happened, right?

我的意思是，如果他们开始以负责任的方式行事，那我们就得重新评估我们的观点。

I mean, you know, if they got if they started behaving in a responsible fashion, you know, then we'd have to reevaluate our thesis.

但我知道，他们的走向是相反的。

But, know, I mean, I see them going the other way.

正如我所说，特朗普说，他讲这句话的时候我真的很震惊。

Like I said, Trump said, you know, I was shocked when he said it.

他说，我们的国防预算大约刚刚低于一万亿美元。

He said, you know, our defense budget's about just under $1,000,000,000,000.

他说，我们应该把它削减到一万五千亿美元。

And he said, we should take it to one five.

我当时想，先生，这笔钱从哪儿来？

I'm like, sir, where the hell is that gonna come from?

你知道吗

Do you know

我的意思你懂吗？

what I mean?

我的意思是，这简直太疯狂了。

I mean, it's just, it's nuts.

这太疯狂了。

It's nuts.

我的意思是，安全噪声曾经说，对比特币最大的威胁是政府的负责任财政政策，这实际上

I mean, safety noise used to say the biggest threat to Bitcoin was responsible fiscal policy by governments, which really

我同意。

And I agree.

是的。

Yeah.

意味着比特币没有威胁。

Means there's no threat to Bitcoin.

我的意思是，这正是我们大多数人所看到的。

I mean, think that's what most of us see.

我的意思是，但我保持警惕。

I mean, but look, I've got my eyes open.

我的意思是，我以前吃过亏，我不想，你知道的，我不会在这里自欺欺人。

I mean, I've been burnt before and I don't wanna, you know, I'm not believing my own bullshit here.

我的意思是，如果我看到证据，价格开始向我显示我们错了，那我就会做出反应。

I mean, if I see, if there's evidence and the price starts to show me that we're wrong, then I'll react to that.

但对我来说，感觉我们认识很多人，有投资者，我跟很多人聊过，我的圈子，我也认识很多有钱人，但他们大多数都不持有黄金、白银或比特币，而是持有股票。

But it feels to me like, you know, we are, I mean, know a lot of people, have investors, I've talked to people, I mean, my cohort, and I know a lot of wealthy people, most of them don't own gold or silver or Bitcoin, they own stocks.

他们都在谈论，简直气死我了，拉里，我真是太晚了。

They're And all talking to and they're just like, God damn Larry, I'm just too late.

我说，不，你真的一点都不晚，你知道的。

And I'm like, no, you're really not, you know.

正如你我都知道并同意的，比特币总有一天会达到一百万美元，甚至更高。

As you and I both know and agree, I mean, Bitcoin will be at a million someday and then some higher number than that.

我觉得黄金涨到一万美金是完全有可能的。

I think gold 10,000 is very doable.

所以现在以四千的价格买入并不疯狂。

So buying at a four is not nuts.

我的意思是，四千五百。

I mean, four and a half.

这对我来说很有趣，因为你知道，今年早些时候我提到过一件事，他们现在给这种趋势起了个名字，称之为货币贬值交易。

Mean, it's, know, to me it's interesting because you know, remember earlier this year, one of things I pointed out is that they've labeled this now, they've come out and they've called it the debasement trade.

我的意思是，真正大规模启动是在九月，就在市场下跌之后。

I mean, really started in a big way in September, right after the fall came in.

那时，狗狗币已经死了，很明显，那项宏伟的法案已经通过，他们将额外支出三四亿美元，而埃隆也放弃了，因为你知道，他是个聪明人，意识到自己无法修复它。

At that point in time, Doge was dead and it became very clear and the big beautiful bill had passed and so they're gonna spend another 3 or $400,000,000 more than they thought and it became and Elon had given up on it all because you know, he's a smart guy and he realized he couldn't fix it.

所以他抽身退出了，是的，就在那时，黄金和白银突然醒悟过来，说：好吧，我们知道接下来会发生什么，我们走吧。你知道，那些问我是不是太晚了的人。

So, he walked away from it and yeah, so, you know, at that point in time, you know, Gold and Silver just woke up and said, okay, we know what comes next guys, know, we're, let's go and you know, think that these people who ask me, am I too late?

我只是对他们说，这根本不是一笔交易。

I just, I say to them, you know, it's not a trade.

他们称之为贬值交易。

I mean, they call it the debasement trade.

这不是交易，而是一种趋势。

It's not a trade, it's a trend.

这是一种持续多年的趋势。

It's a multi year trend.

我不知道顶部会在哪里。

And I don't know what the top is.

会有什么回调吗？

And will there be corrections?

当然会。

Sure.

你知道，这些资产都会出现回调，但我认为所有健全货币资产——白银、黄金、比特币——的趋势都强劲地上行。

You know, there'll be corrections in all of these assets, but I think the trend in all sound money assets, silver, gold, Bitcoin is up and to the right strongly.

所谓的交易意味着你最终会想把它卖回成美元，

The idea of a trade implies that at some point you're gonna wanna sell it back for dollars,

尤其是比特币。

which Especially with Bitcoin.

我确实考虑过这个问题。

And, I thought about that.

我想过，我是不是该卖掉一些我的黄金和白银持仓？

Thought, should I sell some of my gold and silver stock?

那我把钱放哪儿呢？

Where would I put it?

现在，有趣的是，就我而言，因为我在这两个领域都有资产。

Now, it's interesting, in my case, because I've got assets in both of these camps.

你知道，在整个这个该死的健全货币世界里，我最难做到的一件事就是：比特币支持者骂我是抱着石头的老人，而石头派又骂我迷信网络魔法货币，我还在推特上被一堆喷子围攻。

As you know, one of the hardest things I've had to do in this whole goddamn, you know, sound money world is, you know, got the Bitcoiners, you know, criticizing me for being a boomer with rocks, and I got the rocks guys, you know, criticizing me for believing in magic internet money, and I get all these trolls on Twitter.

相信我，简直疯了。

Trust me, fucking nuts.

但拥有这两种资产的平衡，好处之一就是，现在我正在减持一些银矿股以及部分白银和黄金头寸，转而买入MicroStrategy，因为在我看来，1.7美元的MicroStrategy简直就是钱躺在地上没人捡。

But you know, is the one nice part about having that balance of these two assets is like right now, I am trimming some silver mining, some silver and gold positions, and I'm buying MicroStrategy because to me, MicroStrategy at 1.7 is just money laying on the floor.

就是去捡起来啊。

It's like, go pick it up.

我的意思是，MNAV已经被严重压缩了。

I mean, the MNAV has gotten completely compressed.

这个投资逻辑本身没有任何问题。

There's nothing broken with the thesis.

我真心相信Sailor是个天才，他会继续做他正在做的事，这只股票最终会涨到一千美元。

I sincerely believe that Sailor is a genius and he will continue to do what he's doing and that this will be a thousand dollar stock.

所以，从相对角度来看，目前比特币和MicroStrategy对我来说比黄金和白银在货币贬值交易中更便宜。

So, you know, on a relative basis, you know, Bitcoin and strategy are cheaper to me right now than gold and silver in the debasement trade.

还有个有趣的地方，丹妮丝，我想指出一点。

It's interesting too, Danielle, point something out.

你知道，三年前，比特币一路飙升，而黄金和白银股票却跌入谷底，人人都讨厌它们，那时很多比特币支持者说：你干嘛不把那些垃圾抛掉？

You know, three years ago, Bitcoin was flying and gold and silver stocks were in the sewer and everyone hated them, that was when a lot of Bitcoin said, Why don't you just dump that shit?

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you know what I mean?

我也不确定。

It's like, I don't know.

我觉得这雪茄还剩几口没抽完。

I think we got a couple more puffs in the cigar.

我不会放弃的，你知道的？

I'm not gonna give up, you know?

而如今，事情还真就朝着这个方向发展了。

And here we are, and it's kinda worked.

现在，我有很多施密夫和其他那些黄金派的人说：看吧，比特币的理论破灭了。

Right now, I got a lot of Schiff and all these other gold guys are like, Hey, see, the Bitcoin thesis is broken.

一切都结束了，你知道吗？

It's all over, you know?

它并没有产生相关性。

It hasn't correlated.

我们经历了五年的平庸表现。

We got five years of flat performance.

我的意思是，卢克·格罗门，我非常欣赏他，觉得他非常聪明，从他那里学到了很多，就连他也稍微退缩了。

I mean, Luke Gromen, who I love and think is brilliant and I've learned a ton from, you know, even he kinda backed away from it.

好吧，我不确定。

Well, I don't know.

你知道，也许他放松了一些。

You know, maybe, you know, he lightened up.

我只是觉得，天啊，各位，这感觉就像《纽约时报》的那篇文章，对吧？

And I'm just like, gosh guys, you know, to me that just feels like, you know, this New York Times piece, right?

对Sailor的全面攻击，完全是一篇卑劣的抹黑文章。

The totally attack, total cheap shot hit piece on Sailor.

对我来说，这就像杂志上的指标一样，通货膨胀已死，或者黄金不过是块宠物石头。

I mean, to me, that's gonna be like the magazine indicator, you know, inflation is dead or, you know, mean, gold is a pet rock.

我的意思是，那本期刊在2015年就刊登过一篇题为《黄金是块宠物石头》的文章。

I mean, the journal published an article, Gold is a Pet Rock, right at the bottom in 2015.

他们几乎精准地预测到了黄金价格跌至一千美元的低点。

I mean, they almost nailed the low price of gold at a thousand bucks.

而我们现在却已经到了四千五百美元。

And here we are at 4,500.

所以他们攻击Sailor，但我认为两年后，Sailor会笑到最后，而比特币也会苏醒过来，就像克里斯托弗·沃肯那只狮子，突然现身，让所有人知道谁才是真正的老大。

And so, you know, they're attacking Sailor and I think in two years, Sailor's gonna have the last laugh and think Bitcoin's gonna wake up and you know, it's like the Christopher Walken's lion, it's gonna wake up and just show everybody who's boss.

因此我对这一切非常乐观，但这是因为我已经在这个领域很久很久了，见过太多这种心理波动，不过是老生常谈罢了。

So I'm very sanguine about it, but that's because I've been at this for a long, long time and I've seen these, you know, these psychological swings occur and it's just like same old, same old.

你有没有想过，能不能在不卖出比特币的情况下获得现金？

Do you wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin?

Ledden 让这成为可能。

Well, Ledden makes that possible.

他们是全球领先的比特币抵押贷款机构，自2018年以来已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，且始终完美保障客户资产。

They're the global leader in Bitcoin backed lending, and since 2018, they've issued over $9,000,000,000 in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets.

使用 Ledden，你可以获得全额托管贷款，无需信用审核或月供，轻松获得美元，而无需卖出一个 SAT。

With Ledin, you get full custody loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT.

自7月1日起，Ledden 仅接受比特币，意味着他们只提供比特币抵押贷款，所有抵押品均由 Ledden 或其资金合作伙伴直接持有。

As of July 1, Ledin is Bitcoin only, meaning they exclusively offer Bitcoin backed loans with all collateral held by Ledin directly or their funding partners.

你的比特币永远不会被借出以产生利息。

Your Bitcoin is never lent out to generate interest.

我最近在 Ledden 办了一笔贷款。

I recently took out a loan with Ledden.

整个过程非常简单。

The whole process was super easy.

申请只花了我不到十五分钟，几个小时后，我就把美元收到了账户里。

The application took me less than fifteen minutes, and in a few hours, I had the dollars in my account.

整个过程非常顺畅。

It was really smooth.

所以如果你需要现金但不想卖出比特币，去 ledden.io/wbd 注册，你的首笔贷款可享受 0.25% 的折扣。

So if you need cash but you don't wanna sell Bitcoin, head over to ledden.io/wbd, and you'll get point 25% off your first loan.

就是 ledden.io/wbd。

That's ledden.io/wbd.

本集由 Anchor Watch 赞助播出。

This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch.

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The thing that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin cold storage, and this is where Anchor Watch comes in.

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Visit Anchor Watch dot com today.

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至于Luke Groman的那个观点，我同意。

And the Luke Groman one, I'm with you.

我觉得Luke非常出色。

I think Luke's brilliant.

我从他那里学到了非常多的东西。

I've learned an absolute ton from him.

我非常喜欢他的通讯简报。

I love his newsletter.

我真的很喜欢让他上节目。

I really enjoy having him on the show.

但他几个月前至少卖掉了一部分他的比特币。

But he's he sold at least a a portion of his Bitcoin a couple of months ago.

是的。

Right.

原因是他认为四年周期仍然有效，但我认为这已经过时了。

And the reason being was that he thought the four year cycle was still a thing, which I just think that's out the window.

我越来越觉得，也许这个周期根本就不存在。

I I'm more and more coming around to the fact that maybe it never really existed.

也许那只是流动性周期而已。

Maybe it was just sort of liquidity cycles.

说实话，我也不确定。

Like, I don't really know.

我不确定那是他的理由。

I'm not sure that's his reasoning.

当我听到他谈论这个时，我觉得他的理由更多是它仍然像股票一样交易。

When I heard him talk about it, I think his reasoning was a little bit more that it was still trading like an equity.

它并没有像中性储备资产那样交易。

It wasn't trading like a neutral reserve asset.

你知道，我接受这一点。

You know, I accept that.

这是事实。

Which is true.

确实有一部分是这样。

There's some of that.

我的意思是，它开始与三Q脱钩，而且很明显，它属于风险偏好型，与更偏向风险规避的黄金不同。

I mean, it started to detach from the triple Qs, but, and it is, it's clearly risk on, you know, versus gold, which is more risk off.

但关键是，卖出一个具有如此大不对称性的资产，意味着他是在90年代卖出的，得缴税。

But, you know, the thing about selling an asset with this much asymmetry to it, mean, you know, so he sold it in the 90s, gotta pay tax.

所以现在，他得等到价格跌到60或70美元左右，才能在缴完卖出部分的税后，重新买回同等数量的比特币，对吧？

So now he's, you know, it's gotta drop into the 60s or 70s to just get the same amount of Bitcoin after he pays his taxes on what he sold, Right?

所以对我来说，你就像在蒸汽压路机前捡镍币。

And so to me, you're picking up So nickels in front of a steamroller.

你指望它涨到50？

You're hoping it'll go to 50?

顺便说一下，它可能会涨到50。

And by the way, it might go to 50.

它也可能涨到60。

It might go to 60.

我的模型里确实考虑过这种可能性。

I mean, I have that in my model.

我和我的合伙人经常讨论这个问题。

I my partner and I talk about this a lot.

我们认为，比特币这一轮调整还没结束，未来三个月内还可能有一次彻底的清洗式下跌，之后才会迎来真正的大幅上涨。

We have it as about a 30% chance that we're not done with this Bitcoin correction, and there's one more cleansing flush sometime in the next three months before the real big print comes.

但我认为，正如我之前所分析的，我认为那波大行情已经近在眼前，而且我确信

But I think that, you know, as I mapped out earlier, I do think that big print's on deck, and I do

我认为，当它到来时，比特币将会做出反应，并且会猛烈地反弹。

think that when it comes, Bitcoin will respond, and it will respond ferociously.

你知道，克鲁格写了一本非常好的书，我经常推荐，叫《比特币一百万美元》，书中有一个非常有趣的统计数据：从2018年到2024年，比特币上涨了七到八倍。

You know, I mean, Kruger wrote a really good book, which I recommend a lot, called Bitcoin 1,000,000, And in that book, he had a very interesting statistic, which is that from '18 to '24, Bitcoin went up seven or eight x.

你错过了最好的十天。

You missed the ten best days.

你一分钱都没赚到。

You didn't make any money.

我的意思是，你该怎么去把握这个资产的时机呢？

I mean, so how do you, you know, how do you time this asset?

所以，这对我来说是个经典案例，因为我觉得你上次和水手的访谈非常棒，我的看法是，他那天只是状态不好，可能对我有点过于苛刻了。

And so, it's a classic to me because as your, you know, I thought your last interview with Sailor was really great, and I, you know, my take is he was just having a bad day, I think he was a little hard on me unnecessarily.

我不确定他是不是真的明白，我觉得你们俩其实是在各说各话，因为他没错，任何买入比特币的人都应该得到支持，但你也对，不是所有这些比特币储备公司都能挺过来，有些确实相当糟糕，说实话。

I'm not sure he really I think you guys were kinda talking past each other, because he's right that anyone buying Bitcoin we should support, but you are right that not all of these, you know, Bitcoin treasury companies are gonna make it, and some of them were pretty poor to be fair.

但你知道，这种情况是，总有一天，这个资产的涨势会变得极度不对称，直接爆炸式上涨。

So but, you know, it's a situation where, you know, at some point the thing is so asymmetric, just gonna explode to the upside.

所以我搞不懂。

So I don't get it.

我的意思是，就像我说的，克鲁格说过，你错过了十天，就亏了钱。

I mean, you know, like I say, Krueger said that, you know, ten days, you missed ten days and you lost the money you lost money.

我的意思是，我不想知道自己什么时候该在场，我想表达的是，我不想错过。

I mean, I don't wanna know when those I I don't wanna not be there, I guess, is the point I'm making.

对吧？

Right?

百分之百。

A 100%.

我不是那种能预测比特币价格的人，如果它跌回5万美元，我会很惊讶。

And I'm not someone who can predict the price of Bitcoin, I would be surprised if it went back down to $50.60 k.

有可能。

It could.

也可能。

And could.

如果真的跌到那里，我会再买一些比特币。

And if it does, I'll buy more Bitcoin.

但这并不是我的基本预期。

But it's not my sort of base case.

所以我想问卢克的问题是，如果价格没有跌到那个水平，他什么时候才会认输并买回来？

So the the question I'd wanna ask Luke is, when does he sort of if it doesn't go down there, when does he capitulate and buy back it?

我仔细听了他的话，他说他认为价格会跌到那里。

I I listen to him carefully, and he said he thinks it'll go down there.

你知道，他预期——我的意思是，我认为另一个原因，而且公平地说，他可能在这方面是对的。

You know, he he he expects I mean, I think the other reason and to be fair, he may be right about this.

他预期会出现某种崩盘和真正的通缩出清，我认为这会引发大规模印钞。

He does expect something breaking and a real deflationary flush that I think then leads to the big print.

我认为这更符合他的模型：市场会像新冠时期或2008年那样，而在那种环境下，你可能会看到60、50，或者其他任何价位，那时他就会买入。

I think that's more his model, that it's gonna look like COVID or it's gonna look like 2008, and that in that environment, you might see 60, 50, whatever it might be, and he would buy it.

他还曾在最近的一次访谈中提到过，因为我听了他说的每一句话。

He also, in a more recent interview I listened to, because I listened to everything he says.

正如我所说，他非常聪明。

Like I said, he's brilliant.

你知道，他说，如果行情反转，他们开始疯狂印钞，货币供应增加，价格涨到1.1万或1.15万美元，我得花更高的价格买回来，那也没关系。

You know, he said, look, if turns around and they start printing like crazy and the print comes and it goes to $1.10 or $1.15 and I gotta buy it back slightly higher, fine.

你知道，我会这么做的。

You know, I'll do that.

你看，每个人都是以自己的方式管理资金，这并不是一种信仰。

You know, look, everybody manages their own money in their own way and you know, it's not a religion.

这并不是说，你只是在做基于概率的赌注，而他在很多事情上都错得离谱。

It's not like, you know, this you just, all you're doing is you're making probability based bets and he's been so damn right about so many things.

他这次也可能对了。

He may be right about this one too.

我非常尊重的另一个优秀人物是迈克尔·奥利弗。

Another really good guy I respect is Michael Oliver.

他并不是比特币的支持者，但他是一位非常出色的技术分析师，他的技术模型也显示价格会涨到六万美元。

He's not a Bitcoin fan but he's a very good technical analyst and his technical model show it going to 60 thousands as well.

你知道，如果你用艾略特波浪理论来看，第一波下跌是一个圆形，然后跌到80，又反弹回90左右，这是B浪，接下来的C浪应该会跌破80。

You know, if you kinda look at it in Elliot wave terms, the first wave down was an round then to 80, it bounced back up here into the nineties, that's a b and then the c should take it below the 80.

我不确定我们会不会达到60。

I'm not sure we get to 60.

我觉得跌到70左右可能性很大，但你知道，我昨天买了一些MicroStrategy。

I could seventies probably seems likely, but you know, I bought some MicroStrategy yesterday.

我的意思是，我真的想持有大量MicroStrategy股票。

I mean, I just I mean, I I wanna own a lot of MicroStrategy.

我之前卖了一些白银股票，手头有些现金，所以接下来六个月我会用美元成本平均法逐步买入MicroStrategy，因为我知道，如果比特币涨到50或60，MicroStrategy就会涨到110。

I've got some cash from having sold some silver stocks And so I'm gonna just kinda dollar cost average MicroStrategy for the next six months because I know that at 170, you know, I mean, if Bitcoin goes to 50 or 60, Strategy is going to 110.

但你不能，我的意思是，这就是关键。

But you you can't I mean, that's the thing.

你不可能精准抄到最低点和卖到最高点。

You can't get the absolute tops and the absolute bottoms.

这是罗斯柴尔德说过的话。

That's what Rothschild said.

你知道，你不能太贪心，对吧？

You know, you can't be a pig, right?

我的意思是，当东西价格便宜时，你就买进。

I mean, when things are on the cheap side of the board, you buy them.

当东西价格昂贵时，你就卖出。

And when things are on the expensive side of the board, you sell them.

顺便说一下，这就是我最近在少量卖出白银的原因。

And by the way, that's why I've been selling a little bit of silver.

我觉得白银还有很大的上涨空间，但我也可能错了。

I think silver's still got quite a ways to run, but I could be wrong about that.

所以我卖掉了一些。

So I've sold some.

我买过一些白银，那是八九十年代，每盎司才6美元。

I mean, I've got silver that I bought, you know, in the 80s and 90s for $6 an ounce.

你知道，现在它值多少钱？

You know, I mean, it's What is it today?

我的意思是，现在大概八十多美元。

I mean, it's like 80 something.

我的意思是，

I mean,

这太疯狂了，对吧？

it's nuts, right?

是的，这还不错。

Yeah, that's not bad.

是的，

Yeah,

我现在手里的白银价格是94美元。

I've got silver right now at 94.

我的意思是，这太离谱了。

I mean, this is crazy.

所以，你知道，如果我没卖一些的话，我之所以在投资时努力做到的一点是，因为我从事这一行很久了，也犯过很多错误，就是要尽量减少后悔。

So, you know, if if I didn't sell some I mean, one of things when I look at investing, one the things I try and do is, because I've done this for so long and I've made so many mistakes, is you try to minimize regret.

对吧？

Right?

当你坐在那里看着某样东西时，你会想，嗯，如果，你知道的，好吧。

You think when you're sitting there and looking at something, you say, well, if, you know Okay.

所以白银现在是94，我觉得它会涨到300。

So silver's at 94, and I think it's going to 300.

明白吗？

Okay?

但你猜怎么着？

But guess what?

它也可能再次跌到40。

It can also go down to 40 again.

如果现在是94，而我一点都没卖，那你是什么？

And if it's a 94 and I didn't sell any, what were you?

傻瓜吗？

Some kind of an idiot?

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you know what I mean?

那我要把所有的白银都卖了吗？

So am I gonna sell all my silver?

绝对不卖。

Hell no.

我要卖掉5%吗？

Am I gonna peel off 5%?

是的。

Yeah.

那现在什么东西便宜？

And and then what's cheap right now?

哦，MicroStrategy现在挺便宜的。

Oh, MicroStrategy is pretty cheap.

也许我会卖掉5%的白银，然后买一些MicroStrategy，对吧？

Well, maybe I'll sell 5% of my silver and I'll buy some MicroStrategy, right?

所以，你知道的，我是个专业的投资经理。

So it's just, you know, that's I mean, I'm a professional investment manager.

这正是我的工作。

That's what I do.

对我来说，这一切都关乎概率和几率。

And so to me, it's all about kind of probability and odds.

我们谁都不能确定任何事，但当你觉得自己站在正确的一边时，你可以适当押注，对吧？

None of us know anything with certainty, but you can kind of lean, you know, you can lean into things when you think you're on the right side of stuff, right?

是的。

Yeah.

我的观点可能有点中间路线，关于今年会发生什么，但考虑到中期选举临近，特朗普显然担心，如果他在中期选举中表现不佳，就会被弹劾，诸如此类的事情。

I mean, so one of my this might be a bit of a mid curve take on what's gonna happen this year, but with the midterms coming up, like, Trump is obviously worried that if he doesn't do well in the midterms, he's gonna get impeached, like, all sorts of stuff.

他需要有一个极其出色的一年，这意味着他需要经济强劲运行，你懂的。

He he needs to have an incredible year, which means he needs the economy to be running, like You got it.

绝对火热。

Absolutely blazing.

所以他会尽一切努力，这显然就是他为什么在对美联储采取这些行动的原因，只为让美国经济成为有史以来最好的经济。

So he's gonna do everything in his power, which is obviously why he's doing the stuff he's doing the Fed, to just make the economy the best economy The US has ever You seen,

明白了。

got it.

所以在这种环境下，我不知道该怎么做空比特币。

And so like, I don't know how you bet against Bitcoin in that environment.

面对这种情况，我不知道现在怎么还能卖出比特币。

Like, I don't know how you can sell Bitcoin now with that coming up.

我完全同意你的观点。

I completely agree with you.

我的意思是，这一切的政治因素，比如他提到的委内瑞拉和格陵兰的强硬态度，所有这些。

I mean, it's just, yeah, the politics of it all, I mean, what he said, you know, the aggressiveness of Venezuela and Greenland, mean, all of it.

我的意思是，国防预算的五倍增长。

I mean, it's just, you know, the one five on defense budget.

我的意思是，钱的问题，他们会找到资金，会花掉这些钱，会做到的。我觉得值得注意的一件事是，令人惊讶的是，支撑这一切的基本交易其实是美国十年期国债一直维持在4%左右。

I mean, you know, money is, you know, they will find the money, they will spend the money, they will have And you know, tell, the thing to watch, I think it's kinda surprising to me, but I guess it's the basis trade that's held it together, is that the ten year, The US ten years hung in there at 4%.

我的意思是，我实在无法想象，谁会愿意持有收益率只有4%的美国十年期国债，而政府却已经失控了。

I mean, I just can't imagine who would wanna own a US ten year bond paying 4% when you've got a government that's out of control.

这对我来说毫无道理，但事实就是如此。

It makes no sense to me, but it is what it is.

但终有一天，这种情况会崩溃，那就会成为关键信号。

But at some point, think that will break and that'll be the tell.

这正是我最密切关注的事情。

That's kinda what I that is what I watch most carefully.

所以，如果这是真的，特朗普在今年剩下的时间里继续推行这种极度宽松的政策，资产价格会表现得很好吗？你认为他能在不引发严重通胀的情况下做到这一点吗？

So do you think if this is if that's true and Trump tries to run this incredibly hot going through the rest of this year, asset prices will do really well, do you think he'll be able to do that without inflation coming back in a serious way?

嗯，是也不是。

Well, yes and no.

正如你所知，印钞和通胀显现之间存在滞后效应，对吧？

So as you know, there's a lag between the time when you print and the time when the inflation shows up, right?

而且他们可能正试图精准把握时机，比如鲍威尔五月离任，希望他们能尽快任命新的美联储主席。

So, and they're probably trying to time it well, know, the the sense, I mean, Powell's out in May, know, hopefully they get a new Fed chair.

假设他们能把利率降到百分之二或百分之一。

Let's say hypothetically, they can get the rates down to two or one.

我不知道他们是否能做到。

I don't know if they can.

我的意思是，虽然有个委员会，大家都要投票，但我认为他们会狠狠施压美联储的人，逼他们这么做。

I mean, there is a board and they all vote, but I think they're gonna really bully the shit out of the people at the Fed, try and get them.

这将引发一轮又一轮的再融资，带动大量房地产交易，促使人们大量借贷并锁定这些低利率；顺便说一句，这还能降低美国的利息支出，因为我们所有债务都是短期融资，目前平均利息成本约为3.3%。

That would lead to a whole round of refis that would lead to a lot of, you know, real estate transactions, that would lead to a lot of borrowing and locking in those low rates, and by the way, it would bring down The US interest cost because we've financed everything short term, and our average interest cost right now is about 3.3%.

我的意思是，如果短期国债利率降到1.5%，我们每年花在利息上的那一万亿美元就能大幅削减，赤字也会随之缩小。

Mean, if bills got down to 1.5%, that trillion dollars we're spending on interest would get cut, that would make the deficit smaller.

所以，这也是他们需要考虑的另一个因素。

So that's another consideration that they're facing.

你知道，所有这些因素都会在我的看法中导致M2快速增长，但这种增长并不会立即发生。

And you know, all of those things will lead to rapid, in my opinion, M2 growth, but that doesn't necessarily happen immediately.

如果你还记得新冠疫情时期，他们从2020年开始迅速印钱，但通胀高峰却推迟了十二到十八个月才出现。

If you recall with COVID, you know, they printed a lot of money very quickly starting in 2020, but the peak inflation was kind of twelve to eighteen months.

我得回去查一下数据，但这些影响需要一段时间才会显现。

I'd have to go back and look at the numbers but it takes a little while to show up.

所以他们可能会印钱，制造一种乐观氛围，而通胀数据看起来还很正常，于是他们顺利撑过十一月，赢得了席位。

So they might print the money, get the high, feel good and the inflation prints are still okay you know, and so they cruise through November and they get the seats.

但你猜怎么着？

But guess what?

你知道吗，2027年的通胀会反弹，再次逼近两位数。

You know, inflation in 2027 goes back and heads towards double digits.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

我的意思是，他们正在

Mean, that's I can They're

只是不断把问题往后推。

just more kicking the can down the road.

是的，我能想象这种情景。

Yeah, I could see that scenario.

这大概就是我对于事情如何发展的最佳猜测。

That's kinda, that's that's my best guess as to how it plays.

对吧？

Right?

拉里，你可是个自由市场派。

Larry, you're like a free markets guy.

我一直不太明白的一点是，特朗普说他想把利率降到1%。

And one thing that I've never really understood, like, Trump said that he wants to get the rates down to, 1%.

这肯定不应该是资本的成本。

Surely that shouldn't be the cost of capital.

这看起来太低了。

That seems too low.

你觉得资本成本应该是多少？

Like, what do you think the cost of capital should be?

哦，这实在太低了。

Oh, it's way too low.

我们其实谁都不清楚，因为我们生活在一个波将金村式的虚假世界里。

Well, none of us really know cause we're living in a Potemkin artificial world.

没人知道，真正的资本成本是由储蓄和投资需求的平衡决定的，只有在没有美联储、利率真正自由市场的情况下才会出现，但我们离那种状态太远了，简直荒谬。

Nobody, I mean, the real cost of capital is set by, you know, the balance of savings and investment demand and that would only occur if we didn't have a Federal Reserve and we had a true free market for interest rates, but we're so far away from that as to be ridiculous.

我的意思是，如果你看看我们目前的通胀水平，资本成本理应更高。

I mean, if you look at the level of inflation we have, you know, across the capital should be higher.

我无法回答这个问题，因为我根本无从下手，一切都太过扭曲了。

I can't answer the question because I just, I don't even begin to know and things are just so crazy distorted.

但我确实知道一件事，如果你看看自沃尔克以来联邦基金利率的变化图，你知道，他们不断加息、降息、再加息、再降息。

I mean, one thing I do know is true though, if you look at the chart of what the Fed funds rate has done since Volcker, mean, you know, they jack it up, they drop it down, they jack it up, they drop it down.

如果我们干脆把利率固定在4%左右，用自动模式运行，可能反而会更好。

We'd almost be better off if it had just been set on autopilot at 4% or something.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do know what I mean?

这是因为我们经历了如此巨大的波动。

I mean, it's because we've got these enormous swings.

我的意思是，沃尔克曾将利率上调至20%。

I mean, you know, Volcker quote rates up to 20%.

我的意思是，正是这些因素造成了如今的混乱局面，丹尼，这简直一团糟，我在书里经常谈到这一点。

Mean, and setting, I mean, part of what created this mess and has us where we are now, Danny, that's so screwed up and I talk about this a lot in the book.

说资本是免费的，这想法简直荒谬至极。

I mean, the whole notion that capital is free, it's just insane.

荒谬至极。

Insane.

这简直就是同义反复。

I mean, that's like a tautology.

这简直像是一种罪行。

That's like a crime.

这就像对资本主义的严重背叛。

It's like a sharp crime against, you know, against capitalism.

你不可能拥有自由的资本。

You can't have free capital.

好吧，如果利率为零，你等于在说钱没有价值，这一点在法币体系下确实有人会这么认为。

Okay, if say interest rates are zero, you're implying that money has no value, which one could argue that's true when it comes to fiat.

你知道，祖普的情况简直荒唐至极，对吧？

Know, I mean, Zurp was just a It was ridiculous, you know?

这等于给所有能借钱的人提供了免费补贴。

It was a free subsidy to everyone who could borrow money.

这就是为什么这么多亿万富翁发了财。

That's why all these cotillionaires got rich.

所以，你知道，这根本不是管理铁路的正确方式。

And so, you know, this is no way to run a railroad.

这根本就不是管理铁路的正确方式。

It's just no way to run a railroad.

这全都让人非常沮丧，正在撕裂这个国家，你看到明尼阿波利斯各地乃至全美都在发生各种社会问题。

And, you know, that's all pretty depressing and it's tearing the country apart and you see all the bad social things that are happening in Minneapolis, everywhere.

归根结底，这一切都源于货币体系出了问题，而这正是我写这本书的原因。

And you know, it all just comes back down to the money being broken, which again is why I wrote the book.

我希望这个国家能明白这一点，你知道，我认为大多数比特币支持者都明白。

I wish the country understood that, you know, and I think most Bitcoiners understand it.

出问题的是基础层，但这并不是无解的，朋友们。

It's the base layer that's broken and it's not unsolvable, folks.

我的意思是，如果我们回归到一个健全的基础层，你知道，我们拥有这么多先进的技术，即使爆发世界大战，我们也不会互相残杀。

I mean, if we go back to a sound base layer, you know, we've got all this great technology, get and we into a world war, we don't all kill each other.

你知道，一切都会重新组织。

You know, everything will reorganize.

当然，会有人赢，也会有人输。

Now, there will be winners and losers.

持有债务的人将被清零，过渡期会经历大量通胀，但事情最终会好起来。

People who hold debt will get wiped out and there'll be a lot of inflation in the transition, but things will be good again.

我的意思是，所有有生产力的参与者，在激励下都会做正确的事，让世界变得更好得多，所以，你知道，我只等着度过这第四次转折，回归到健全的货币体系。

I mean, are all productive actors who will, with incentives, do the right things and make the world a much better place and so, you know, all I'm waiting for is to get through this fourth turning and return to that sound money.

问题是，你知道，这可能需要危机或准危机状态才能实现，因为普通美国民众，当然还有所有政客，都不会自己带我们走到这一步。

The problem is that, you know, it's gonna take, it's probably gonna take crisis or semi crisis conditions to get us there because, you know, the average boobous Americanus and certainly all the politicians aren't gonna take us there on their own.

不过有一个有趣的可能，我在其他播客里也谈过，就是特朗普或贝森特可能会做一件非常大胆的事，尝试进行一次货币重置。

Although one interesting possibility, and I've talked about this on other pods, is that Trump and or Bissent, you know, do something really, really bold, which is to try and do a monetary reset.

我不知道他们是否有政治空间，也不知道他们是否有这个胆量，但理论上，我们可以跳过让通胀飙升、国家四分五裂、货币崩溃的过程，直接由贝森特某天早上醒来，和特朗普一起宣布：我们将黄金重新定价为每盎司三万美元，将比特币重新定价为一百万美元的硬币，政府现在将用这两种资产兑换你的美元。

And, you know, I don't know if they have the political space, I don't know if they have the guts, but you know, we could theoretically skip the, you know, let's go to super high inflation, the country tears itself apart and currency fails by, you know, Bissent waking up one morning and saying, and Trump's, saying, we're gonna revalue gold at $30,000 We're gonna revalue Bitcoin at a million dollar coin and you know, government will now exchange your dollars for either of those two things.

拿一百万美元来，我们给你一个比特币。

Bring us a million dollars, we'll give you a Bitcoin.

拿一盎司黄金来，我们给你两万五千美元；或者拿两万五千美元来，我们给你一盎司黄金——从此，我们正式进入健全货币体系，就此为止。

Bring us your ounce of gold, we'll give you 25,000 or, you know, give us 25,000, we'll give you an ounce of gold and we are now on a sound money standard, period.

1971年的事情，彻底翻篇了。

And you know, 1971, gone, done.

顺便说一句，我们还要平衡预算，通过这里那里削减开支来实现。

Oh, and by the way, we're gonna balance, you know, we're gonna balance the budget by know, basically cutting expenses here and there.

而且，财政部一般账户（TGA）将被重新估值，其估值溢价将用于偿还政府债务。

And, you know, the TGA would be revalued and that markup of the TGA would be used to pay down the government debt.

我的意思是，如果他们真这么做了，债券持有人将承受巨大的痛苦。

I mean, if they did that, it would be enormously painful for bondholders.

这将带来一次性的巨大通胀，但就像猛地撕掉创可贴一样。

It would be enormously one time inflationary, but it would, you know, so it's like ripping off the band.

会疼得要命。

It would hurt like shit.

但从长远来看，我们实际上会获得一种健全的货币体系。

But, you know, on a go forward basis, we would actually have a sound money solution.

现在，这对我来说只是10%的可能性，因为我根本不确定他们是否有胆量这么做。

Now, you know, that's my 10% case because I just I don't know that they'll have the guts to do it.

甚至我自己也可能想错了。

And even I may be wrong about it.

这可是个令人胆寒的步骤。

I mean, a scary step.

我的判断可能完全错了，关于它最终会如何发展。

I mean, I could be wrong about the way that it plays out.

所以，他们会这么做吗？

So, you know, will they do it?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但我确实知道，只要我们不回归健全的货币体系，通胀就将成为我们这个时代的首要问题。

But I do know this, I do know that until we get back to sound money, I think inflation is going to be the problem of our age.

而且说实话，我认为整件事情更可能的发展路径是，通胀会越来越严重。

And you know, the more likely path on the whole thing is I think inflation just gets worse and worse and worse.

蓝队在2028年获胜，而通胀可能进一步恶化，甚至导致货币体系崩溃，尽管他们采取了各种措施。

The blue team wins in 2028 and inflation really Maybe gets the currency even fails with all their actions.

我之前在其他播客里也说过，我真的相信，存在某种可能性，迈克尔·萨莱尔会站起来说：嘿，你们知道吗？

And then, I've said this in other pods, I really do believe there's some chance that we get, Michael Saylor stands up and says, Hey, you know what?

我知道历史。

You know, I've studied history.

我喝了我的茶。

I went down my tea.

我是个工程师。

I'm an engineer.

我明白这一切是怎么搞砸的。

I understand how this all got broken.

我有证据。

I've got the receipts.

我是世界上最富有的人，因为比特币的价格已经涨到每枚1000万美元。

I'm the richest man in the world because Bitcoin's at $10,000,000 a coin.

我要烧掉我的密钥。

I'm gonna burn my keys.

我对这些全都不在乎。

I don't give a shit about any of that.

我想成为我们这个时代兼具托马斯·爱迪生和托马斯·杰斐逊精神的人，选我当总统，我们将改革宪法，彻底重建这个该死的体系。

I wanna be the Thomas Edison slash Thomas Jefferson of our age and elect me as president and we're gonna reform the constitution and reset this whole goddamn system.

这就是我对孩子们的希望，因为你知道，如果走相反的方向，可能会经历数十年的痛苦，尝试所有那些注定失败的其他解决方案。

And that's my hope for my kids because, you know, going the other direction, you know, it could be decades of pain, you know, just trying all these other solutions that won't work.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

我很惊讶你把百分比和特朗普进行货币重启的可能性定为10%。

I'm surprised you put the idea of percent and Trump doing a monetary reset at 10%.

这对我来说似乎非常高。

That seems very, very high to me.

10是高了，还是低了？

10 seems high, or 10 seems low?

不，10太高了。

No, 10 seems high.

我认为这可能是历史上任何总统做过的大胆举动。

I think that would be the most ballsy move by any president ever, probably.

我觉得没错，但你想想。

I think that's right, but think about it.

你想想。

Think about it.

我的意思是，最终会落到巴桑特身上，而巴桑特 basically 说，我们需要一个新的布雷顿森林体系，我想在它发生时坐在谈判桌旁。

I mean, it's gonna come down to Basant, and Basant basically said, you know, we need a new Bretton Woods, and I wanna be at the table when it happens.

他们明白这一点。

They understand it.

伊朗也明白。

Iran understands it.

我的意思是，特朗普可能会意识到，假设到了2028年，通胀失控，万斯即将败选，蓝队即将获胜。

I mean, Trump might realize that, you know, if he lets, mean, let's say it's 2028 and inflation's raging and it looks like Vance is gonna lose and Blue Team's gonna win.

你知道，为什么不孤注一掷，干脆说：管他呢。

You know, why not throw a Hail Mary pass and just say, Screw it.

咱们干脆把这该死的体系彻底重置一下。

You know, let's try and reset this whole goddamn thing.

当然，他会面临法院的挑战等等，但你知道，尼克松做过，罗斯福做过，林肯也做过。

And, you know, he'd get challenged in the courts and everything else, but, you know, Nixon did it, FDR did it, Lincoln did it, you know.

我的意思是，货币事务本应由宪法规定，也就是宪法第一条第八款赋予国会的权力，但你知道，实际情况并非如此。

I mean, the monetary stuff's supposed to be controlled by the constitution, you know, Article one, Section eight in Congress, but you know, that's not what's happened.

这是一件实际事务，由行政首长来操作。

This is a practical matter, the chief executive has done it.

而且我觉得是十。

And you know, I think it's 10.

我认为存在某种可能性。

I think there is some possibility.

我觉得他们，你知道，你得记住，这些家伙，依我看来，尽管他们也有一些优点，但缺点也不少。

I think they, you know, you have to remember, these guys, I mean, in my opinion, for all their, and there's some good things about them, there's a lot of flaws about them.

我的意思是，别让我谈爱泼斯坦文件的事，但你知道，特朗普币，特朗普和梅拉尼娅币，对吧？

Mean, don't, you know, don't get me started on the Epstein files, but, you know, Trump coin, Trump and Melania coin, right?

但你知道，我觉得他们正在思考，什么才是真正对美国最有利的，是维护我们的主权和我们在世界上的领导地位，而不是，你看，我不喜欢我们的政府，但我认为我更爱我们的政府，而不是俄罗斯政府和中国政府。

But, you know, I think they are thinking, you know, about what's truly best for America and maintaining our sovereignty and our leading position in the world versus, you know, a couple of, I mean, look, I don't love our government, but I think I love it more than I love the Russian government and the Chinese government.

所以，你知道，我觉得他们也这么想。

And so, you know, and I think they do too.

而且我觉得他们基本上希望维持我们的领导地位。

And I think they basically want to try to maintain our position of leadership.

你知道，以这种方式恢复健全的货币，在我看来，会让我们继续保持领先地位。

You know, returning to sound money in this way would be, you know, in my view, would keep us in a leading position.

尤其是如果比特币在其中发挥作用的话。

And particularly if they have Bitcoin in the picture.

我的意思是，我不认为中国对比特币做了任何押注，而且我认为中国的黄金储备比他们声称的要多得多。

I mean, because I don't think China has made any kind of a bet on Bitcoin and think China has a lot more gold than they say they have.

所以，在整个解决方案中加入比特币来超越中国，在我看来会是一个巨大的积极因素。

So, you know, leapfrogging China with a Bitcoin piece of the whole solution would be a big positive in my view.

是的，我肯定他们需要权衡的风险是，放弃全球霸主地位是否值得。

Yeah, I mean, the risk I'm sure they would have to calculate is whether it's worth it to give up being like the global hegemon.

但我觉得这将会是一件了不起的事情。

But I mean, I think it would be an amazing thing to happen.

我不知道，不能

I don't know, can't

也许你说得对，泰德，也许吧。

help You it may be right, Ted, maybe.

也许太高了，我的意思是，也许我是个理想主义者，我不确定。

It may be high, I mean, maybe I'm a dreamer, I don't know.

恐怕，可悲的是，我们只会继续在这条路上跌跌撞撞，直到痛苦到所有人都要求一个解决方案。

It's probably, sadly, we probably just keep stumbling along down this road until it gets so painful that everyone demands a solution.

我的意思是，如果我们陷入类似拉丁美洲那样的两位数通胀，你知道，这个国家已经经历了太多，人们痛苦不堪，你已经能在社会结构的诸多指标中看到裂痕了。

I mean, you know, if we get kind of South America style inflation in the double digits, you know, I mean, this country has been through so much and people are hurting so badly and you can already see it, you know, in so many different measures of the social fabric being torn.

我祈祷，在某个时刻，这个国家中仍存的大多数能站出来大喊：该死的，给我们政治，给我们愿意平衡预算、恢复健全货币体系的政客。

You know, I pray that at some point in time, you know, the large remnant within this country will stand up and say, God damn it, give us politics, give us politicians who are willing to, you know, to balance the budget and return to a sound monetary unit.

我的意思是，你可能不知道另一个情况，朱迪·谢尔登是支持健全货币的人，她也是黄金支持者。

I mean, you know, I mean, another data point you may not be aware of, Judy Sheldon is a sound money person, she's a gold person.

她提议发行一种附带黄金条款或黄金Backing的国债，这样你的本金购买力就能得到保障。

She's proposed a treasury bond with a gold piece or gold backing to it or gold exchange clause in it so that you would be protected in terms of the purchasing power of your principal.

你知道，安迪·谢克曼说，谢尔登告诉他，她曾在一次会议上与特朗普会面，特朗普说：这是个好主意。

And, you know, Andy Shechman says Sheldon told him that she was in a meeting with Trump and Trump said, That's a great idea.

也许我们在七月，也就是国家成立二百五十周年的时候，推出这种债券。

Maybe we do that in July when we have the two hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the country, we introduced that bond.

我的意思是，这些想法对当今在位的人而言，并不完全陌生或荒谬。

So, I mean, these ideas are not completely, you know, alien or farfetched, you know, to the people who are in office today.

但这并不意味着他们会这么做。

Now, that doesn't mean they're gonna do them.

我的意思是，像黄金支持的债券或比特币债券这样的想法，对我来说简直是不言而喻的。

I mean, the the idea of, like, a gold backed bond or a bit or a bit bond is seems like a no brainer to me.

这种事我觉得是有可能发生的。

That kinda thing I could see happening.

当然。

Absolutely.

而且我想，这将是朝着恢复健全货币标准迈出的正确一步。

And and I guess that would be a step in the right direction towards returning to a sound money standard.

当然。

Absolutely.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

当然。

Absolutely.

他们明天就应该做这两件事。

And they should do both of those things tomorrow.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这并不痛苦，也不难做到。

I mean, it's and it's not it's not that painful or that hard to do.

我的意思是，这确实是一个步骤。

I mean, that's that's a that's a step.

它没有完全解决问题，但能让你开始思考。

It doesn't fully solve it, but it gets, you know, it gets you thinking.

而且，我的意思是，他们确实尝试过这么做。

And, I mean, they tried to kind of do it.

我的意思是，他们当时希望，贝森特希望这些稳定币能解决这个问题。

I mean, they were, you know, they were hoping, what Bessent was hoping was that these stablecoins were gonna solve the problem.

他们以为会有足够的稳定币需求来吸收所有这些国债。

That there'd be enough stablecoin demand for all those treasuries.

但如果你实际算一下，稳定币市场的规模与国债市场的规模相比，稳定币仍然太小了。

But if you actually run the math, you know, like the size of the stablecoin market versus the size of the treasury bill market, stablecoins are just too small still.

它们的增长速度不足以吸收这些债务。

They're not growing fast enough to absorb it.

所以，这并不能救他们于水火。

So, that's not gonna bail them out.

意思是，他们一直在扔最后一搏的传球，对吧？

Mean, been kind of throwing Hail Marys, right?

我的意思是，他们一直寄希望于一些不切实际的方案，比如狗狗币，埃隆说我们要拯救两万亿美元。

I mean, they've been, you know, Doge was a Hail Marry, you know, Elon, we're gonna save 2,000,000,000,000.

哦，不，好吧，我们至少能救一万亿。

Oh, no, well, we'll save a trillion.

也许这种办法根本行不通。

Well, maybe this kinda doesn't work.

天啊，我受够了。

Oh shit, I'm fed up.

我很聪明。

I'm smart.

我不会在这里浪费时间。

I'm not wasting my time here.

我走了。

I'm gone.

说实话，这是一个非常非常破碎的系统，改革它绝非易事。

Mean, sadly it's a very, very broken system and reforming it is just no piece of cake.

所以，你知道，我相信更高的力量。

So, you know, but I mean, I believe in a higher power.

所以我认为这个更高的力量送给了我们比特币，我认为，比特币不管他们愿不愿意，都会彻底击碎这个系统。

So I think this higher power sent us Bitcoin and I think that, you know, we're basically, Bitcoin's gonna smash the system whether they like it or not.

唯一真正的问题是时间尺度。

And the only real issue is on what time scale.

而且，我觉得这一切，呃，第四次危机周期通常持续二十年到三十年。

And, you know, I kind of think that all this, I mean, fourth turnings tend to last between twenty and thirty years.

这次是从‘18年开始的。

This one started in 'eight.

所以2028年是短期的终点，2038年是长期的终点。

So 2028 is the short end of the line and 2038 is the long end.

我认为，这个问题大概会在三十年代初得到解决。

This will get resolved probably in the early thirties in my opinion.

我们还没到

We're not too

其实也没那么远，如果我们说的是五六年、七八年的话。

Not far that far away actually, if we're, you know, talking, you know, five, six, seven, eight years.

所以，我的意思是，我们正逐渐进入一个认真的阶段，对吧？

So, I mean, we're getting to the point where it's, you know, we're serious now, right?

我的意思是，这些金属的变动都是认真的。

I mean, these metals moves are serious.

我在推特上说过，很多人笑话我，但我当时在推特上说，如果白银是这一轮周期中的雷曼兄弟，会不会很讽刺？

I said on Twitter and a lot of people laughed at me, but I said on Twitter, you know, wouldn't it be ironic if silver was the Lehman Brothers of this cycle?

我的意思是，如果有大银行做空白银，他们可能会破产，一旦发生，他们的政府就得救助他们，这将导致整个系统的杠杆开始连锁崩塌，然后，你知道，这就是大规模印钞的开始，对吧？

I mean, there's somebody, you know, if some big banks are short silver, you know, they're gonna go, they could go BK and if they do, their governments will have to bail them out and then that will lead to, you know, all the leverage in the system could come cascading down And, you know, there's your big print, right?

所以。

So.

拉里，我一直以来都有个问题想问你，但从来没正式问过。

So one of the questions I've always had for you, Larry, I've never actually properly asked you.

从我第一次和你交谈起，你就一直在说黄金价格被压制了几十年。

So since the first time I think I ever spoke to you, you've been talking about how gold price was suppressed for decades.

哦，

Oh,

是的。

yeah.

我想这个问题可以分成两部分。

Do you I guess this is a two part question.

你认为这种压制正在结束吗？

Do you think that suppression is ending?

我认为是的。

I do.

还有，第二个问题是，我们如何避免比特币也出现这种情况？

And also, on the the second question being, how do we avoid that for Bitcoin?

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

是的。

Yeah.

是的，我认为它正在结束，因为人们在要求实物黄金，而你现在正处于这样一个阶段：我们已经看到了幕后的操纵者，不再相信他们，所以我们会说：把黄金给我。

So yes, I do think it's ending because people are demanding the physical and it's, you know, you're at the stage where the, you know, that we can see the man behind the curtain and we don't believe him, so it's like, give me the gold.

所以，回答你的第一个问题，是的，我认为黄金正在发生这种变化。

So yes, I think, to answer your first question, yes, I think it's happening for gold.

有趣的是。

Thing is interesting.

那里有大量的纸比特币。

There's a lot there is paper Bitcoin.

我的意思是，你去看看币安的永续合约，你知道，它的规模已经增长了很多。

I mean, you go to the Binance Perpetual Futures, you know, it has grown a lot.

你可以去购买纸比特币，有人会卖给你纸比特币，你签订的是对比特币价格的合约，但实际上从未真正购买过任何比特币，你只是有需求，但比特币根本没被买走。

You can go and you can buy paper Bitcoin and somebody can sell you paper Bitcoin, and you've got to put a contract on the Bitcoin price and no Bitcoin ever, know, it was demand that you had, but no Bitcoin ever got purchased.

所以这个市场已经增长了很多。

So that market has grown a lot.

詹姆斯·切克，切克马特，你的一位同胞，在这方面做得非常好。

James Check, Checkmate, one of your country mates, has done a really good job of this.

他有一些很棒的分析报告。

He's got some great charge.

你需要订阅一个服务才能获取它们，但我们确实订阅了。

You gotta subscribe to a service to get them, but we do.

整个这个市场已经增长了不少。

And that whole market has grown quite a bit.

我经常说，他们有五十年的时间来完善黄金操纵机制，你知道，他们有开曼群岛的实体，有中央银行持有黄金，有国际清算银行，还有各种其他工具。

I've often said that they had fifty years to perfect the gold manipulation scheme and you know, they had Cayman Islands entities, they had central banks that owned it, they had the BIS, they had all these different things.

比特币是完全不同的东西。

Bitcoin's a different animal.

这要难得多。

It's a lot harder.

第一，它没那么古老。

One, it's not as old.

第二，打压机制还不够成熟。

Two, the suppression mechanisms aren't as developed.

第三，比特币能做的一件事是黄金永远做不到的——比特币可以在六个月内上涨六倍，对吧？

And three, one of the things that Bitcoin can do that gold never can do has done, Bitcoin can go up 6x in six months, right?

所以，当他们面对黄金的问题时，比如遇到糟糕的一年，黄金上涨了20%到30%。

And so, you know, when they had a problem with gold, mean a bad year for them and gold was a go up 2030%.

那时他们会抛售黄金，制造负面叙事，把价格打压下去；即使他们需要印钱来填补这20%到30%的缺口，相对于维持整个体系的运转来说，这笔钱也不算多。

Well, they'd sell into it, create a narrative, drive it back down and even if they needed to print the money to cover the 2030%, that wasn't a lot of money relative to keeping whole system going basis.

当你做空某物而它暴涨六倍时，那就是一个‘向耶稣忏悔’的时刻，对吧？

When you're short something and it goes up six x, that's, you know, that's a come to Jesus moment, right?

我的意思是，如果你用纸比特币来压制它，而价格却如此飙升，事实上，正是因为你突破了26000这个关口，才会看到那些押错方向的人慌乱不堪。

I mean, you know, so if you're suppressing it with paper Bitcoin and the price goes does that, In fact, that's part of what drives it to go up to six x is the fact that you know, when when we break through this 26, you're gonna see people scramble that are on the wrong side of that trade.

华尔街有很大一部分人认为，他们做了一个配对交易，即做多三只QQQ，做空比特币。

I mean, there's a big part of Wall Street that said, you know, they had a pair trade where they're long the triple Q's and short Bitcoin.

这个配对交易确实奏效了，因为QQQ一直坚挺，而比特币却一直表现不佳。

That pair trade has actually worked because the triple Qs have hang in there and hung in there and Bitcoin has failed.

我认为这是个愚蠢的交易，因为QQQ已经被高估了。

I think it's a stupid trade because the triple Qs are overvalued.

我认为比特币被低估了。

I think Bitcoin is undervalued.

但只要它还能赚钱，它就会继续有效，直到他们过度杠杆、冒进得太远，然后局势才会反转。

But as long as it works, it works until, you know, they get too far out over their skis and then it reverses.

而这正是导致比特币像一头狂野的野兽一样剧烈波动的原因。

And that's what causes Bitcoin to trade like the wild animal it trades at.

所以我认为很少有人明白，当这一波真正来临时，价格不会只涨到140。

And so what I think few people understand is how when this thing does hit, when this next wave does hit, it's not going to 140 guys.

它会涨到250美元、300美元，或者350美元。

It's going to $2.50 or 300 or three fifty.

我的意思是，因为届时会有两件事同时发生。

I mean, because there will be so much, you know, there'll be two things happening.

所有空头都必须平仓，否则他们的脸会被撕烂。

There'll be all the shorts who have to cover or else they're gonna get their faces ripped off.

同时还会有一批全新的投机性多头涌入，加杠杆做多，对吧？

Then And there'll be a whole new category of long degens who'll come in and who'll lever it and go long it, right?

这会把价格推高到400，而从400开始，它还会回调到150。

That's what'll shove it to 400, and then from 400, by the way, it'll correct back to 150.

但这就是一种正在被广泛采纳的投机性资产的特性。

But I mean, it's the nature of a speculative asset that's being adopted.

你知道，如果你去看看亚马逊的长期价格走势图——它是一家类似网络效应的公司——它曾多次出现90%以上的回调，也多次出现50%到60%的大幅回撤。

Know, this is And if you go look at a very long term price chart of Amazon, which is a similar network based business, it had multiple, you know, one and ninety percent correction, had multiple sixty, seventy out of 50% corrections.

我的意思是，它要么会统治世界，要么就会消亡。

I mean, either it's gonna take over the world or it's gonna die.

而现在，比特币正处于……你知道的，我们现在听到的说法是，哦，它看起来不像数字黄金，今天早上我刚看到一个黄金投资者发的推文。

And right now, Bitcoin's in the, you know, right now, we're kinda hearing, oh, it's not I I just saw a tweet this morning from a gold guy.

这哪像什么数字黄金啊？

Well, not really looking like digital gold, is it?

我当时就想，你等着瞧吧。

And I was just kinda like, You wait.

好吧。

Okay.

你就等着吧。

You know, just wait.

你且放松点。

You just relax.

你知道，这不是一条直线，但我会站在另一方。

You know, it's not a straight line, but, you know, I'll take the other side