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传统方法的大问题是，模型每六到十二个月才重新计算一次。
The big risk in traditional is that the models are recalc ed every six to twelve months.
所以刚算完的时候，它的预测准确性通常是最高的。
And so right after they're calculated, they're probably at their most accurate in terms of being predictive.
但随着时间推移，如果不重新计算，你对当初那个结果的可靠性就会越来越没把握。
But as time passes without any additional recalculation, your uncertainty about the validity of that original calculation has to take a hit.
欢迎收听《衡量即管理》，这是NinjaCat出品的关于营销绩效管理、指标与效果的播客。
Welcome to What Gets Measured, a NinjaCat podcast about marketing performance management, metrics, and effectiveness.
因为只有被衡量的，才能被管理。
Because what gets measured gets managed.
我是你的主持人杰克·桑德斯。
I'm your host, Jake Sanders.
获奖的首席营销官兼首席传播官马克·斯图斯，是最早将各类营销投入与复杂长周期企业的收入、利润和现金流影响直接挂钩的领导者之一。
An award winning CMO and CCO, Mark Stouse, is one of the first leaders to connect all types of marketing investments to revenue, margin, and cash flow impact in complex long cycle companies.
2014年，他被《Business Wire》杂志评为年度创新者。
In 2014, he was named innovator of the year in Business Wire magazine.
马克同时也是Proof Analytics的首席执行官，这是一家营销分析平台，帮助首席营销官和首席财务官通过因果分析，清晰展现营销和销售对业务的真实影响与财务价值，从而弥合投资回报率的差距。
Mark is also the CEO of Proof Analytics, a marketing analytics platform that helps CMOs and CFOs bridge the ROI gap by providing cause and effect analytics that show marketing and sales true business impact and financial worth.
马克，今天非常感谢你来参加节目。
Mark, thanks for being on the show today.
你好。
Hey.
很高兴能来。
It's great to be here.
非常感谢。
Thanks so much.
那我们先来个简短的介绍吧，Proof Analytics到底是做什么的？
So let's start with an elevator pitch for Proof Analytics.
你们公司主要在做些什么？
What are you guys doing over there?
你们的服务对象是谁？
Who do you work with?
我们主要服务中型企业的客户，既有B2B，也有B2C。
So we work with primarily with mid range enterprise customers, b to b and b to c.
Proof的核心价值在于，其实多年来，做多变量回归分析的数学方法和数据早就有了。
The kind of the the crux of of the Proof value proposition is that, you know, for years, the math has existed and the data has existed to do multivariable regression analytics.
三十年前，宝洁公司刚开始做市场营销时，就把这叫作营销组合建模。
It's it's what Procter and Gamble thirty years ago started to call marketing mix modeling when you when you apply it to marketing.
但要把这套方法真正用到日常决策里，一直特别困难。
But it has been very difficult to operationalize into the decision making process.
任何试过的人家都知道，这过程慢得要命。
Anyone who's tried knows that it's very slow.
模型重新计算的延迟太高了。
The recalculation of the models is high latency.
基本上得每六个月到一年才更新一次，这显然有问题。
It's like every six to twelve months, so that's kind of a problem.
而且成本极高，一年要花上百万美元。
It's very expensive, meaning millions of dollars a year.
非数据科学家很难理解这些输出结果。
It's very difficult for non data scientists to understand the output.
你只能一直往下做。
I mean, you just keep on going.
对吧？
Right?
正如你开场提到的，我是最早在像霍尼韦尔这样的大公司里全面采用数据分析驱动决策的首席营销官之一，而且做得非常成功，但当时我们还是得靠人力硬扛。
And so we, I was one of the first CMOs, as you noted in your intro, to really adopt an an analytics led approach in big companies like Honeywell and do it very successfully, but we still had to do do it brute force.
对吧？
Right?
我们不得不雇很多数据科学家，才能达到所需的处理速度和产出量。
We had to essentially hire, you know, a lot of data scientists to be able to get the throughput and the speed that we needed.
所以，很明显有个机会可以自动化这一切，一次性解决所有这些问题。
And so there was a real obvious opportunity to automate it and essentially put a stake through the heart of all those problems in one stroke.
这就是Proof所做的。
And so that's what Proof has been.
接下来一周我们有个大消息要公布，就像我之前说的，我很乐意聊聊，因为这真的很重要。
And then I, you know, as I told you, I I you know, we we got big news coming next week, and I'm happy to talk about that because I think it's it's a it's a big deal.
快说吧，快告诉我们。
Please, please.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
这可是你的好机会，赶紧多讲讲。
This is your chance Tell tell us more.
我们都屏住呼吸，等着看呢。
I mean, we're all waiting with popcorn, bated breath.
对很多营销团队来说，这一整套工作都涉及收集和管理各种数据，比如财务数据、不同营销领域的绩效关键指标。
So so part of this whole equation for a lot of marketing teams has involved, you know, the assembly and management of all kinds of data, financial data, performance KPIs in different areas of marketing.
还包括数字资产的管理。
It's also included things like digital asset management.
你知道，这个领域过去十几年来一直被称为MRM，也就是营销资源管理。
You know, we're talking about what has been called, the category has been called MRM or marketing resource management for, I don't know, probably ten or fifteen years.
对大多数人来说，这一直是个成本极高、极其复杂的解决方案。
This has been a very, very high dollar, very complicated solution for most.
如果你看看这个领域的老牌厂商，他们的产品确实很棒，没错。
If you look at the legacy providers in the space and it's great, they're great products, right?
Primo、Alacadia或者其他任何一家都没问题，但它们价格昂贵，实施起来也特别烧钱。
There's nothing wrong with a Primo or Alacadia or any of the rest of them, but they are very expensive and they are very expensive also to implement.
所以专业服务那块，费用高得吓人。
So the professional services side, very costly.
最终你得准备花两百万到三百万美元，具体看公司规模和你要达成的目标。
And so you're you're kind of looking at a $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 bill depending on the size of your company and what you're trying to accomplish.
天哪。
Wow.
我们今天要宣布的是，我们把自动化的营销组合建模功能，整合进了一个完整的MRM工具，而且这个工具是基于Salesforce全新打造的。
And we are announcing, so what we've done here is we have integrated our automated marketing mix modeling into a full scale MRM tool that uniquely is built on Salesforce.
这是唯一一个原生集成在 Salesforce 上的 MRM 工具。
So it's the only one that is native, only MRM tool that's native on Salesforce.
这一点在数据同步和其他各种方面都有巨大优势。
There's huge advantages to that in terms of data synchronization and all kinds of stuff like that.
而且，这也是第一个完整的全生命周期营销管理平台，对吧？
But also, right, it is the first now full life cycle marketing management platform, right?
你不仅拥有规划、预算、审批、合规、数字资产管理、数据管理这些功能，还内置了营销组合建模，每次循环流程时都能为你的规划和预算提供实时指导。
So not only do you have planning and budgeting and approvals and compliance and digital asset management and data management and all that kind of stuff, But you also have the integrated marketing mix modeling, which essentially informs your planning and budgeting every time you cycle through the process.
这真的很了不起，我觉得特别有颠覆性，而且选在这个经济环境下推出，时机简直完美，大家都正面临同样的挑战。
And what's really, really cool and I think very disruptive about this, and timed, I think, very well in terms of the economy, everybody is kind of moving into, what we're all facing.
我们从 Salesforce 那里获得了非常强有力的支持。
So we have had a tremendous amount of support for this from Salesforce.
所以我们现在能做到每人每月 49 美元。
And so we're able to do this for $49 a seat per month.
这么说吧，过去其他所有产品的价格都高于每人每月 2.5 美元。
So to put this in perspective, historically, everybody else is north of $2.50 a seat per month.
对吧？
Right?
而且其他公司都没在Salesforce上，也没人整合过营销组合建模分析。
So and no one else is on Salesforce and no one else has integrated marketing mix modeling analytics.
是的。
Yeah.
这真的特别厉害。
So this is this is really, really cool.
我们对这个特别兴奋。
We're really excited about it.
我们已经对这个做了差不多九个月的A/B测试。
We've been AB testing this for, I don't know, close to nine months.
还有一件事特别有意思，我们听很多公司说，你知道吗？
The other thing that's really cool is that we heard from a lot of companies where they said, Hey, you know what?
我们真的不喜欢ARR这种合同。
We really do not like ARR contracts.
所以这是一种按年付费、 upfront 一次性付清的模式。
So this is this is where there's a certain amount of money paid on an annualized basis upfront.
对吧？
Right?
我们不喜欢这种模式。
We don't like that.
风险太高了。
It's too risky.
当然，如果产品已经验证成功了，那另当别论。
I mean, once the product is proven out and all that kind of stuff, that's different.
但在第一年左右，我们更希望按月收费。
But in the first year or so, we really want MRR.
所以我们听到了这些反馈，接下来我们要发布的所有内容都基于按月收费。
And so we heard that and all of this, everything that we're getting ready to announce on this is MRR.
你可以直接注册10个席位。
So you can, you know, you can sign up for 10 seats.
十个人，每人五十块，每个月也没多少钱。
That's what, 10 times 50, that's not a whole lot of money per month.
对。
Right.
想增加多少名额都可以随时调整。
You can grow it as you want to.
如果觉得不合适，随时提前三十天通知，随时可以取消。
And if it doesn't work out for you at any time on a thirty day notice, you just stop.
真的吗？
Wow.
是啊。
Yeah.
你提到的那种每六个月或一年才付一次的模式，延迟太高了。
Well, and you're talking about, you know, the high latency of of being like every six or twelve months.
可能你得等上六个月甚至一年，才能知道是不是真的合适。
You might not know if it's working for six months or a year.
是啊。
Well, yeah.
所以在这种情况下，我们的延迟取决于你能支持的处理速度。
And so in this case, so on the side, our latency is whatever speed you can support.
如果你的数据是每天、每周，甚至每分钟、每小时更新一次，系统都会自动重新计算所有模型。
So if your data is flowing on a daily basis or a weekly basis or even a minute by minute basis or an hour by hour basis, it's going to automatically recompute all the models.
它基本上会自动运行。
So you you'll just it basically run.
它的运作方式就跟手机上的GPS一样，不仅给你提供你关心的那些投资回报数据，还会主动提醒你：嘿，你知道吗？
It operates exactly like the GPS on your phone at that point, because not only is it giving you all the classic ROI data that you're looking for, But it's actually saying, hey, you know what?
这是你的预测值。
This is your forecast.
这是你当前的实际进度和预测之间的差距。
This is where you are relative to that forecast.
假设你发现那里出了问题。
Let's say that you're you're you got a problem there.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Mhmm.
这里有一些市场上的因素正在拖你的后腿，让你偏离方向，对吧？
Here are some of the things in the marketplace that are causing you a problem, slowing you down, pushing you off course, right?
你可以在工具里直接模拟应对方案，当场调整策略，重新回到正轨。
And then you can war game your response to that right there in the tool and change your mix right there and get back on track, so to speak.
所以，它就是这么做到的。
So it's actually it's that right there.
关键在于，你能够快速循环分析，真正理解的不只是回报，还有考虑时间延迟后的净回报。
The pay that, you know, the your ability to cycle through and really understand not only the payback, but the payback net of time lag is really, really, really key.
太厉害了。
Wow.
所以这真的很棒。
So it's pretty cool.
49美元的费用，我觉得Proof和Salesforce都对这个产品很有信心，觉得它一定会大卖。
And at $49 a fee, I think that Proof and Salesforce are very optimistic that this will be a winner.
这太厉害了。
That's amazing.
我们会在节目笔记里提供Proof Analytics和这个产品的链接。
So we will provide links to Proof Analytics and this specific product in in the show notes.
大家可以点进去看看。
So you guys click through and check that out.
我们再聊聊营销组合建模吧。
So let's talk a little bit more about marketing mix modeling.
这需要大量的数据。
It requires a ton of data.
就像你之前说的，各个规模和行业的营销人员都在忙于整理数据，但真每个人都需要吗？你怎么看？
Like you've already said, marketers of every size and vertical are wrangling the data, but does everyone need Like what what's your thoughts on that?
听着挺高大上的，但这玩意儿适合所有人吗？
Because it sounds fancy, but is it for everybody?
我觉得，大公司和小公司在市场营销上面临的风险是不一样的。
Well, I think that the risks that that you're trying to deal with as a marketer is different in big companies and smaller companies.
对吧？
Right?
比如在小公司，假设你每年的营销预算是500万美元。
In a smaller company, let's say, you know, your marketing budget is 5,000,000 a year.
如果你押错了一次，那就是双重损失——钱花了没效果，还错过了其他可能的投入机会。
If you make a bad bet, is, you're a two time loser on that deal because you've lost what you spent the money on and you have also lost what you could have spent it on.
更重要的是，这对公司的现金流影响特别大，尤其是在小公司，资源本就紧张，这种浪费会非常明显。
But more importantly, from a cash flow impact on the business, this is really, really bad because not only have you bled off resources that are really important and particularly noticeable in a small company's cash flow portrait.
没错。
Right.
而且，一次错误的投资还会拖慢你未来的资金流动。
But also you have inhibited the flow of future cash flow with a bad investment.
对吧？
Right?
这不会带来回报。
It's not going to pay off.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
说到大公司，说白了，你知道吗？
When you're talking about large companies, it's really about, man, you know what?
如果这笔钱是上千万的投入，机会成本可就大了，对吧？
If I it's the opportunity cost on $10,000,000 Right?
不管具体是多少吧。
Or whatever the number is.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
如果你搞错了，那你就是两次都输了。
You are also a two time loser if you get it wrong.
但你的CFO一看这个，肯定要问：这到底在搞什么？
But your CFO is going to look at that and say, what the hell?
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，你有没有想过，如果这1000万美元不花在营销或者其他任何业务上，而是直接算进利润，会对每股收益造成多大的影响？
I mean, do you have any idea what $10,000,000 would do for our earnings per share if we just let that fall to the bottom of the line instead of spending it with marketing or anywhere else for that matter inside the business.
对。
Right.
所以我觉得，这个道理其实同样适用。
So I mean, it's really I think it is equally applicable.
而且
And
这里特别要澄清的是，营销组合模型根本不是人工智能，对吧？
also the really important thing here to clarify is that marketing mix modeling is not AI, right?
这可不是机器学习。
It's not machine learning.
这是一种精简的数据分析方案。
It is a lean data analytics solution.
而且，回归分析其实广泛应用于各种研究领域。
So and it's also, you know, regression math is is used in countless areas of investigation.
世界上大概有八成的问题，都是通过某种形式的回归分析解决的。
Probably 80% of the world's questions are resolved in one form or another by regression.
所以，如果你想想现在大家对AI、特别是机器学习在模式识别这些方面的狂热，
So you don't know, if you think about, you know, the current fascination with, you know, different forms of AI, particularly machine learning for for pattern matching and things like that.
对。
Right.
机器学习需要的数据量，跟运行营销组合模型相比，简直是天壤之别。
The amount of data that you need for machine learning is monstrously huge in comparison to what you need to operate MMN.
对吧？
Right?
所以为了让你有个概念，你所需要的数据量，跟机器学习相比，简直微乎其微。
So to give you a sense of this, right, you're just it's just not even it's a very small fraction of the amount of data that's necessary for machine learning.
我的意思是，这个方法其实非常容易上手。
So I mean, it's just a, I would say that it's actually very approachable.
最关键的是，你得从问题出发，先想清楚你要解决的是什么。
The key thing here, the most important thing I can say about this is that you have to look at this from, you have to start with the question in mind.
我想知道什么？
What do I want to know?
我到底想回答哪个问题？
What question do I want answered?
然后你再反过来推，整个模型都会根据你的问题来决定你需要哪些数据。
And then you back down all the way through the model and then the model dictates the data that you're going to need.
如果你一门心思只纠结于‘我有没有数据’——
If you get all obsessed with, do I have the data?
我有没有数据？
Do I have the data?
我的数据够不够好？
Can, you know, is my data good enough?
如果不先用分析的思路，不按我刚才说的方式去想，你根本达不到目标。
And all this kind of stuff Without using analytics first, without thinking about it in the way that I just outlined, you'll never get there.
这个
The
先看数据的策略行不通，任何数据科学家都会这么说。
data first strategy is a bust and any data scientist will tell you that.
真的吗？
Wow.
他们甚至可能在劝自己别干这行了，也许吧，
And and they they might even be talking themselves out of work, maybe,
你知道的，或者也不是。
you know, but or No.
我的意思是，我想告诉你，这里其实有两件大事在发生。
I mean, I'm I'm here to tell you, you know, there's there's two big things here that are going on.
第一，企业真的懂营销吗？
One is does the business understand marketing?
营销又真的懂企业吗？
And does marketing understand the business?
其实上周我刚在领英上做了一个关于这个问题的调查。
In fact, I just I just did a survey on LinkedIn late last week on that question.
哪个更重要？
Which is more important?
两者都非常重要。
They're both really important.
但我认为，尤其是考虑到谁在付钱，营销人员更应该理解他们所服务的业务。
But I would submit to you, particularly given who is paying the bills, that it is far more important for marketers to understand the business that they serve.
这样，他们才会觉得你真的懂营销，对吧？
That is the shortcut to having them understand you understand marketing, right?
所以，如果你在接下来的两年内没法证明自己的价值，那麻烦就大了。
So and if you can't prove your value in the next twenty four months, you're going to have a big problem.
我的意思是，高管们会怎么看，毕竟我本人是从首席营销官转任首席执行官的。
I mean, they're going to they're going to look, the reason why C suites and I'm a I'm a CMO turned CEO.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Right.
说得对。
Good.
所以我能从两个角度都理解。
So I kind of see it both ways.
对。
Right.
高管们之所以优先削减市场部门，主要有两个原因。
The reason why C suites cut marketing first is there's two main reasons.
第一，在大多数公司里，市场预算的数额都很大。
One, in most companies, the marketing spend is a large number.
从百分比来看，营销支出在总开支中占比确实很高。
Certainly in percentage terms, it's a large percentage of the total spend.
所以从第一天起，它就等于被贴上了靶子。
So it has a big target painted on its back just, you know, from day one.
对。
Right.
第二个原因是，他们根本不清楚之前投入营销到底带来了什么回报，尤其是考虑到时间延迟，更不知道一旦削减营销预算，会损失多少。
The second one is, is that because they don't know what they've been getting, particularly net of time lag for their marketing investment, They also have no idea what they're going to be losing when they cut marketing spend.
重磅炸弹。
Quote bomb.
而且这里确实存在时间延迟。
And look, there's time lag here.
对吧？
Right?
那你说会怎样？
So guess what?
如果他们今天削减营销预算，你们目前的所有投入都会继续产生影响。
If they cut marketing spend today, all your current investments, they're going to carry forward.
所以从企业的角度看，短期内不会立刻出现负面效果，对吧。
And so from the business's point of view, there won't be an immediate negative impact, Right.
可能要过九个月，事情才会突然变得一团糟。
It might be nine months before all of a sudden things kind of go to crap.
所以，这真的值得好好想想。
And so, you know, that's just something to really think about.
还有一个特别直观的例子，很多人都会提到，就是美国总统或者总理更替的情况。
And there's a really easy illustration of this that a lot of people talk about, and that is with different presidents of The United States or prime ministers.
哦，明白了。
Oh, okay.
对，没错。
Yeah, yeah.
他们上任的时候，对吧？
They come into office, right?
他们在任的头两年，经济表现如何，跟他们一点关系都没有。
And whatever the economy is doing for the first two years of their first term, they have absolutely nothing to do with that.
他们可能会因此得到很多赞誉，或者背很多黑锅，对吧？
They might get a lot of credit or a lot of blame, okay?
但事实上，他们根本没时间对经济产生任何影响。
But the reality is, is that they haven't had any time to have had an impact on the economy.
不管好坏，他们任期头两年到两年半的经济状况，全都是前任留下的结果。
That for good or bad, that what's going on in the first two, two and a half years of their presidency is all based on what their predecessor did.
营销也是同样的道理，对吧？
And this is the same thing with marketing, right?
这里面有个时间延迟。
There is a time lag here.
我们经常看到，首席营销官干不了多久，通常撑不过两年，就是因为等他们把事情都理顺了，时间也差不多到了。
And one the problems that we see all the time with CMOs is that the reason why they don't last much longer than two years is that by the time they get everything going, they're out of time, right?
他们的所有举措见效都太慢，结果头两年没用对地方。
The time lag on all their stuff is so long and they use the time, the first two years, not in an optimal way.
大概十八个月左右，高管层就开始觉得：这事儿怎么没起色啊？
And so somewhere around eighteen months, the C suite goes, Man, this is not working, right?
一点正面效果都看不到，根本没进展。
This is not working, not seeing any positive inputs here at all.
于是他们就开始盘算怎么把首席营销官给换掉。
And they start plotting the exit of the CMO.
我们其实做过很多后续分析，结果证明这位首席营销官没错。
And we've actually done a lot of analytics after the CMO has left that validated the CMO, right?
说白了，这位首席营销官根本不该被炒。
And basically the CMO should not have been fired.
他干得相当出色，只是没法让别人看清营销效果的滞后性。
The CMO was doing a great job, but the CMO had no ability to give transparency to the time lag impact.
天哪。
Oh my gosh.
这太有意思了。
That's amazing.
这让我想起我在史蒂文·福克斯的广告史里读到的一个故事。
Well, it it reminds me of a story I read in Steven Fox's history of advertising.
那本书叫《镜子制造者》。
It was a book called the mirror makers.
真的特别精彩。
It's really, really amazing.
但书里早期讲的一个故事是关于桂格燕麦的。
But one of the stories that they tell early on is Quaker Oats.
19世纪末，那家公司有两个老板，其中一个特别推崇桂格这个形象，还到处办展览，有点像P.T.巴纳姆那样，搞得很热闹。
In the late eighteen hundreds, They had, like, two owners, and one of them was really leaning into the Quaker thing and used that as an icon and would kinda go around and have shows and, you know, sort of like a PT Barnum thing, like, kinda bringing the shows to it.
另一个创始人却觉得这纯属浪费，直接把那人给开除了。
And the other founder was really upset about this, thought it was a big waste, and fired that person, you know, and got rid of them.
接下来大概九个月，公司一点变化都没有。
And for about nine months or something, nothing changed.
于是他们就觉得，我赶走那些花里胡哨的东西真是做对了，什么展览、桂格标志，全滚蛋吧。
And so they were like, I made the right decision by getting rid of all that nonsense, you know, the showmanship, the Quaker icon, like, get out of here.
我们只是卖燕麦而已。
You know, we just sell oats.
但一旦销量开始下滑，人们不再购买，那是因为燕麦已经从他们的记忆里消失了，不再存在于他们的日常认知中。
But once the thing started to tank, once people weren't buying it, it's because it wasn't in their popular consciousness, it wasn't in their memories.
这真是太惊人了。
It's amazing.
后来他又把那个人请了回来，继续沿用那个贵格派的风格。
And he hired back the person, and then they kept on doing the Quaker, you know, vibe.
于是现在，我们能在货架上看到贵格燕麦。
And then here we have Quaker Oats on a shelf, you know.
令人惊讶的是，早在十九世纪末，就已经有营销人员和企业领袖在面对同样的问题，经历同样的效果。
But it's it's amazing that in the late eighteen hundreds, there were marketers and business leaders dealing with this same problem and experiencing these same effects.
所以我只是想跟你分享一下这个小故事。
So I I just wanted to drop that little tidbit for you.
但其实也不是。
And and No.
这正是我们刚才讨论的绝佳例子。
It's a it's a great example of what we're talking about.
没错。
Right.
所以，吉百利燕麦由吉百利燕麦亲自推荐。
So and get Quaker Oats brought to you by Quaker Oats.
再想想创新，想想通过一个广受欢迎的角色来卖燕麦，这种做法本身就是一种创新，是一种全新的思路。
So thinking more about innovation, thinking about that approach to selling oats through, you know, a popular character, that's an innovation sort of that's a different way to approach things.
你在营销行业里可是公认的创新先锋。
And you've been recognized as an innovative innovative figure within the marketing industry.
在你看来，创新到底意味着什么？
What does innovation mean to you?
技术是如何既推动又阻碍营销行业创新的？
And how does technology both help and hinder the marketing industry's ability to innovate?
这问题问得真好。
Oh, that's a great question.
对我来说，创新和创造力一样，放到传统的营销体系里来看，本质上就是解决问题而已。
So innovation to me, just like creativity, you know, in a traditional marketing kind of framework is nothing more and nothing less than problem solving.
更准确地说，无论是创新还是创造力，都是跳出常规思维框架去解决问题，也就是大家常说的跳出盒子思考。
And it is, you know, you could say that both innovation and creativity are problem solving by thinking outside of commonly accepted parameters, right outside the box.
我觉得这个说法完全站得住脚。
And I think that that is really true.
在我看来，不管是我也好，还是任何一个称得上有创新精神的人也好，
I think that to the extent that I am innovative, right, or anyone is innovative,
这个问题
it
因为他们能发现很多人出于各种原因都想不到的规律和关联。
because they can see patterns and connections that for whatever reason don't occur to a lot of other people.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，举个比较极端的例子，就是那些博学多才的人。
You know, an extreme example of this is somebody who is a polymath.
对。
Right.
你知道，达·芬奇绝对是个多才多艺的人。
You know, Leonardo da Vinci is was absolutely a polymath.
对吧？
Right?
一个多才多艺的人呢，就是懂的东西特别多，而且这些领域还都差别特别大，对吧？
And what a polymath does is they know a lot about a lot and all that stuff is very, you know, very dissimilar, right?
他既懂科学，又懂艺术，还有各种各样的领域，他全都能掌握。
So you have all kinds of science and you have art and you have, you know, just all kinds of different areas of endeavor that he mastered.
他能把看似毫不相关的东西自由地联系起来，找到别人想不到的解决方案。
And he could see he could free associate between seemingly unrelated things and get to a solution that a lot of other people couldn't do.
所以我觉得，让我想想。
So I think that let's see.
你问题的第二部分是啥？
Part two of your question was what?
技术。
Technology.
比如，技术是帮助还是阻碍了这种能力？
Like how does technology help or hinder that ability?
我觉得这其实非常重要，因为那个老三角模型短期内根本不会消失。
I think it's actually, you know, this is actually huge because, you know, you've got the the old triangle, which is not going away anytime soon.
人如何理解和使用技术。
People process technology.
对吧？
Right?
而这个三角形中最关键的一点是人。
And the long pole of that tent is people.
对吧？
Right?
这可不是个等边三角形。
This is not an equilateral triangle.
这个三角形的每条边长度都不一样，对吧？
This is, you know, every leg of this triangle is a different length, right?
甚至可以说，技术这一条边是最短的。
And one could even argue that the technology leg is the shortest.
但人的智慧，其实只是这个等式的一半。
But as, you know, so the genius of people is just half the equation.
你还要考虑到人的局限性和组织的短板，对吧？
You also have to think about the weakness of people and the weakness of organizations, right?
随着营销技术栈变得越来越复杂，它反而拖累了使用这套系统的人。
And as like a martech stack gets more and more complicated, it inhibits the human beings using that stack.
尤其是当波动性增加、变化速度加快的时候，你想想看。
Because you just you particularly as volatility comes into play, speed of change comes into play, speed I mean, you look.
华尔街的交易平台就是个很好的例子。
I mean, the trading platforms on Wall Street are a great example of this.
确实如此。
Absolutely.
你知道，人类的大脑根本不可能跟得上微秒级的交易速度，对吧？
You know, there was no way that a human brain could keep up with microsecond transactions, right?
没错。
Right.
这根本不可能实现。
It's just not happening.
所以，正是从那时起，人工智能才真正大规模地接管了这项工作。
And so that's when AI really started taking over in a really major way.
我觉得，技术在营销领域的走向会是这样——营销人员肯定不爱听这个，对吧？
I think that really what we're going to see with tech in marketing is, and marketers are not gonna dig this, Right?
他们真的会特别反感这一点。
They're just really not gonna like this at all.
哎呀。
Uh-oh.
但总会有那么一个时刻，他们会把大量决策权交给人工智能，不再由人来做主了。
But there's gonna be a point at which they either turn a lot of it over to AI where they're no longer making the decisions as as human beings.
对。
Mhmm.
或者他们会说，你知道吗？
Or they say, you know what?
这实在没法接受。
That's not really acceptable.
所以营销技术的速度和灵活性终将遇到瓶颈。
And so there will be a there will be a cap on the speed and agility of marketing technology.
这个瓶颈不在技术本身。
And that cap is not about the tech.
而在于人能否跟得上这项技术。
It's about the human being's ability to use the tech.
对吧？
Right?
这种事在历史上一再出现，你总能看到。
And that is that's just you know, you see this over and over and over again in history.
对。
Right.
你知道，这其实就是现实。
You know, it's just a it's it's a reality.
我刚才没细想，但看到你身后那些军刀，突然有了点灵感。
Without thinking I'm thinking just kind of inspired by the the sabers that I see behind you.
第一次世界大战就是一次巨大的技术飞跃，那时候人们还在骑马打仗、戴着手套，结果一战来了，榴弹炮一响，所有以前关于怎么打仗的想法全被打破了，你知道的。
World War one being one of these huge technological leaps where people were fighting wars on horses and gloves and and World War one showed up with a howitzer and just sort of dashed all those thoughts, you know, on how we were gonna
是的。
Yeah.
在战场上，你必须适应，不然就只有死路一条。
Engage on the field.
我的意思是，你必须跟着变，不然就淘汰。
I mean, you know, and and you had to adapt or die.
不是。
No.
确实如此。
It's absolutely the case.
对吧？
Right?
在那种情况下，那些并不在前线的指挥官们，很难放弃他们原有的作战理念。
And and in that particular case, you know, the the leaders who were not necessarily on the front lines, right, had a difficult time turning loose of their doctrine.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
面对技术变革的时候。
In the face of technological change.
比如榴弹炮和空爆弹药，这些在第一次世界大战中造成的伤亡可能比任何武器都多。
So the howitzer, the airburst munition, which that probably killed more people in World War I than anything.
太疯狂了。
Crazy.
然后是机枪。
And then the machine gun.
对吧？
Right?
还有飞机，虽然在一定程度上，这些技术变革来得太快，人类根本来不及适应，结果造成了大量本可避免的死亡。
Though though and and to some limited degree, the airplane, these these are these were huge shifts in technology that that human beings could not accommodate fast enough in order to prevent a lot of unnecessary death.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Yes.
这正好说明了我们一直在谈的问题。
And that that's a great example of what we're what we're talking about.
对吧？
Right?
有句老话这么说。
I mean, it's there's that old saying.
对吧？
Right?
这句老话之所以流传至今，是因为它真的说中了。
And and it's an old saying because it's really true.
我们都还在打上一场仗。
You know, we all are fighting the last war.
说实话，我也一样，我也是人，难免犯这毛病。
I mean, I'm trying really, I mean, I'm as guilty of that because I'm a human being as anybody.
也许唯一的不同是我意识到了，而且我有意识地在努力避免这样，对吧？
Maybe the difference is that I'm aware of it and I actively work to not do that, right?
我从不认为，我过去做营销或者当企业领导时那一套，现在还管用。
I don't assume that anything that I grew up with as a marketer or even as a business leader is still true.
那咱们能不能多聊聊你亲身经历的一些故事？
So let's get more towards maybe some parables or stories that you can share from your experience working with this.
有没有哪个瞬间，像灰姑娘那样，你用营销数据帮客户取得了惊人的成果？
Do you have a Cinderella moment to share or an instance where the work you're doing with marketing data got just insane results with a client?
那你有没有遇到过事情彻底搞砸的惨痛经历？
And also, you have a horror story where things went real south?
有的，其实那些糟糕的情况通常分两种类型，你知道的。
Yeah, I mean, you know, the horror stories are when they kind of take two forms, right?
一种是客户根本不愿意下功夫去做该做的事。
One is that the customer doesn't really have the will to do the work that's necessary.
对。
Yeah.
不过现在我们很少遇到这种情况了，因为我们在前期跟潜在客户沟通得非常到位。
And we don't have a lot of those anymore because we do a really good job engaging with prospects upfront.
如果明显感觉对方可能有这个问题，我们就会提出来，毕竟我们不希望客户不满意。
And if it's pretty clear that that might be an issue, you know, we raise it up because we don't want an unsatisfied customer.
对。
Right.
但真正最大的问题，是他们不喜欢数据分析得出的结果。
But the really big one is when they don't like the results of the analytics.
好消息是，这种情况其实很少发生。
The good news is that that really doesn't happen very much.
我的意思是，二八法则依然适用，你85%的营销投入里，有80%都在效果爆棚。
I mean, the eightytwenty rule is live well, and 80% of 85% of your marketing investments are probably kicking ass and taking names.
对。
Right.
但确实有15%到20%的投入没达到预期。
But there's that 15 to 20% that's not.
你还得记住，尤其是过去三年，市场环境变化特别快。
And you also have to remember that particularly in the last, say, three years, the market conditions have been changing rapidly.
所以这跟我们刚才说的其实是一回事。
And so this again, this is like we were just saying, right?
三年前管用的办法，现在要么不管用了，要么效果跟以前完全不一样。
What worked three years ago doesn't really work or doesn't work in the same way that it, you know, today.
对。
Right.
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所以啊，人们——也就是营销人员，那些优秀的营销人，不管他们是有意还是无意的，对吧？
So people, you know, marketers, great marketers, they whether they kind of meant to or not, right?
我不是在针对谁，这完全不是个人批评。
It's not I'm not I'm not this is not a personal indictment at all.
明白。
Okay.
对。
Right.
但他们习惯凭直觉来做决策。
But they have adopted kind of an intuitive approach to decision making.
他们清楚自己过去的经验是什么。
And they know what their experience has been in the past.
他们知道哪些方法过去有效，哪些没效。
They know what they think they've seen work and not work in the past.
当然，很多时候这些经验确实有道理。
And a lot of times there's a lot of truth to that, obviously.
但正如我们在新冠期间看到的，如果你看一下Proof公司2019到2022年至今的客户数据，每一年都不一样。
But as we saw during the COVID period, you know, if you look at the analytics for customers of Proof across 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 year to date, they're all different.
如果你用2019年的数据来规划2020年，或者用2020年的数据来规划2021年——这听起来可能更合理，对吧？
If you had used 2019 to plan 2020 or even 2020 to plan 2021, which would have been maybe more logical, right?
对，没错。
Right, oh yeah.
那你可就全盘错了吗。
You would have been way out.
没错。
Right.
我的意思是，你那套计划根本行不通。
I mean, you would have it would have busted.
所以很多人现在都在面对这个现实。
And so a lot of people are dealing with that reality.
所以……
And so.
这很难受。
It's hard.
这对自尊是个沉重打击，你知道吧，每个人在职业生涯的某个阶段都觉得自己是这个领域的主宰。
It's a tough blow to the ego, you know, because we all like to think of ourselves at some point in our career as sort of the master of the universe of our of our domain.
是的。
Yeah.
领域。
Domain.
没错。
Right.
但我得给你泼盆冷水，你知道吧？
But I got a news flash, right?
其实这也不该太让人意外，尤其是经历了过去三年之后。
And it really shouldn't be that big a surprise and more not after the last three years.
过去并不能代表未来。
But past is not prologue.
根本不是这么回事。
It's just not.
所以，如果你做事情不是基于数据分析，也就是说，没有一个预测模型，并且这个预测会随着未来变成现在不断更新，让你能看清现实和预测是否一致，以及为什么一致或不一致，
And so if you are not pursuing whatever it is you're doing on an analytics led basis, and that really means with a forecast, with a computed forecast that then is recomputed as the future becomes the present so that you see whether or not your reality is aligning with the forecast and why or why not.
那你可就麻烦大了。
If you're not doing that, you've got a big problem.
说到逆袭时刻，
Well, talk about the Cinderella moment.
你有没有遇到过哪个客户，之前特别挣扎，结果一下子飞黄腾达了？
Is there a client that you had on and they were struggling and then it just went straight to the moon?
就是那种情况，有吗？
Like like, is there?
有。
Yeah.
没有。
No.
其实呢，同样这类情况，比如江森自控，和霍尼韦尔是竞争对手。
I actually in this in the same kind of vein, you know, Johnson Controls, so competitor to Honeywell.
对。
Yeah.
也是同类型的公司，早就一直是我们的客户。
Same same kind of company, has been a customer for a long time.
他们在2019年底生成的预测模型显示，某些投资在2020年的效果会逐渐减弱。
Their forecasted models or the forecasts generated by the models in late twenty nineteen started to indicate that certain investments were gonna start tapering off in terms of their effectiveness in the 2020.
当然，当时谁也不明白原因。
And of course, nobody knew why.
对吧？
Right?
但你根本不需要知道是新冠，也不用专门去追踪新冠相关的具体数据。
But you don't have to be, you don't have to know that there's COVID and you don't have to be measuring specific things about COVID.
早在2019年10月、11月，这些信号就已经在系统里显现出来了。
Stuff is already filtering through the system as far back as October, November 2019.
是的。
Yeah.
模型能察觉到这一点，对吧？
And the models can pick up on this, right?
比如一个特别明显的例子，事后回头看，人人都会说，
And so that like a super easy one, which every, you know, in retrospect, everybody goes,
这还用说吗。
Oh, duh.
对啊，没错。
Yeah, right.
但在预测层面呢？
But on a forecasted basis, right?
过去，现场营销活动对江森自控来说效果一直非常好。
Historically, field marketing events had really worked great for Johnson Controls.
但后来数据显示，效果开始减弱了。
And then it started showing that it was petering out.
大家都说，哇，你知道吗？
And everyone was like, wow, you know?
所以去年十二月、一月的时候，我们聊了很多，是不是我们的信息出了问题，还是别的地方变了什么。
And so there were a lot of conversations in like December, January about, know, it problem with our messaging, is it a problem with, you know, I mean, something changed.
然后突然间，大家开始真正意识到新冠疫情了。
And then all of a sudden, you know, people started becoming really aware of COVID.
但你要记得，我们对新冠疫情的认知，其实只是事后才看到的，那些市场变化早就发生了。
But remember, our knowledge of COVID is a lagging indicator of all these effects that were already happening in the marketplace, right?
哇，
Wow,
是啊。
yeah.
所以我们总是后知后觉。
So we always realized stuff last.
对吧？
Right?
回头看2020年，虽然那个数字是对的，但他们还是敢于坚持自己的数据分析结论。
And hindsight 2020, although that number checks But they were able to look at that and have the courage of their convictions around the analytics.
真厉害。
Wow.
他们开始撤出那些投资了，对吧？
And they began to divest from those investments, right?
为了退出展会，他们甚至交了违约金。
So they paid penalties to get out of trade shows.
这些事都发生在去年年底到今年年初那会儿，对吧？
They did, you know, this is all in like December, January kind of timeframe, right?
真没想到。
Wow.
2020年1月。
January 2020.
结果他们省下了六百五十万美元，后来又更有效地重新利用了这笔钱，对吧？
And so they were able to save $6,500,000 So then fast forwarding and reuse it more effectively, right?
所以快进到2020年七八月，江森自控的财务部门开始大力收紧预算。
So fast forwarding to July, August 2020, finance at Johnson Controls started really tightening the screws big time.
他们提议对市场部门进行一笔比例惊人的预算削减。
And they proposed a gargantuan, in percentage terms, budget cut for marketing there.
我们的客户向他们展示了数据分析，说明了实际情况。
And our customers were able to show them the analytics, show them what was really going on.
最终削减的幅度小得多，小很多。
And the final cut was way less, way less.
他们说，你知道吗？
And they said, hey, you know what?
你们不仅管理得井井有条，而且我们通过这些数据的时间滞后分析发现，如果真砍了，一年半后损失的东西是我们绝对不想丢的。
Not only do you obviously have your act together, but we can see based on the time lag calculations of all this stuff that what we would be giving up in a year or eighteen months is stuff we do not want to give up.
所以我们得去别处找剩下的钱，对吧？
And so we're going to go find the rest of the money somewhere else, right?
哇。
Wow.
如果没有这些数据分析，约翰逊控制公司的市场部门本会是第一个接受全额削减的。
And they would have been the first, meaning Johnson Controls marketing, would have been the first to say that without the analytics, they would have taken the full cut.
太惊人了，真没想到。
Wow, wow.
真了不起，你说过去不能代表未来，但我写过，未来的迹象其实藏在过去，或者正发生在当下。
Amazing because you said the past is not prologue, but I wrote something the signs for the future are in the past or they're happening right now.
没错，这些迹象确实存在。
Yeah, they definitely can be.
所以，未来的迹象就藏在过去。
So the signs of the future are in the past.
但当我们说‘过去是序幕’时，真正意思是人天然容易觉得，既然一直保持稳定，那以后也永远会这样，对吧？
But when we say the past is a prologue, what that really means is there's a natural human tendency to say that because I feel like it's always been at the steady state, that it's always going to be at that steady state, right?
这其实不是政治观点，更像是一种社会现象。
So this is actually, I mean, to be, this is not a political statement, it's more of a social statement if anything.
这就是为什么那么多人长久以来都难以接受气候变化这个概念。
This is why so many people struggled for so long with the idea of climate change.
是的。
Yeah.
所以变化是非常非常缓慢的。
So the change was very, very incremental.
他们看看自己住的地方，就会说，哎，今年跟去年或者前年也没啥区别，完全没错。
And they would look around where they lived and they'd say, man, this year is not all that different than last year or the year before or Totally.
对。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
所以我根本没感觉到。
And so I'm not seeing it.
你知道，我听科学家们说这些，也听到各种说法，但我就是没看到任何实际的证据。
You know, I hear the scientists and everything and I, you know, I hear all this stuff, but I'm not seeing any evidence of this.
所以要相信这件事真的很难。
So it becomes really hard to believe.
对。
Right.
但你忘了，在大多数情况下，尤其是初创公司，对吧？
But what you forget is that in most situations, I mean, about a startup, right?
初创公司刚起步的时候，感觉什么都没发生。
Startup gets going, startup feels like nothing has happened.
没人打电话来，也没人关心，对吧？
Nobody's calling, nobody cares, right?
就在公司所有人都觉得：算了，咱们放弃吧的时候。
And right at the point where everybody in that startup is saying, man, you know what, we should shut this, give up.
对。
Right.
对吧？
All Right?
突然间，好像全世界的人都在那一刻转过身来，想跟他联系。
Of sudden, it feels like everybody in the world turned around in that moment and wanted to talk to him.
但实际情况并不是这样。
Which wasn't the case.
这都是你直到此刻之前付出的所有努力的结果。
It was all the work that you did working up to this moment.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Right.
说得对。
That's correct.
所以这里最大的教训是，你所处的世界并不是线性的。
And so things are not so the big lesson here is you do not live in a linear world.
你生活在一个非线性、多变量的世界里。
You live in a nonlinear world and you live in a multivariable world.
这意味着你不可能看清一切。
And that means that you can't see it all.
人类的大脑本身根本没法理解这一切是怎么串联起来的，尤其是当存在时间延迟的时候。
You can't understand that the unaided human brain cannot understand how it all fits together, particularly when it's time lag.
对。
Right.
所以，这就是营销领域最大的问题，对吧？
So that's the big issue here on marketing, right?
你的解决方案实际上就解决了营销最根本的难题，没有别的了。
I mean, you solve this problem using and you solve marketing's biggest problem, period.
就这么简单，到此为止，明白吗？
End of story, that's it, right?
我经常说，我以前最讨厌当营销人员的一点，就是总得谈预算。
What I say a lot is, the thing that I hated about being a marketer was all the budget conversations.
我的意思是，那些让人不愉快的预算讨论，对吧？
And what I really mean is the negative ones, right?
对。
Right.
这让整个事情变得特别糟糕。
And it made the whole thing suck.
就是缺乏认可，对吧？
The lack of appreciation, right?
公司对市场人员根本没什么尊重，确实如此。
That the business felt for marketers just Yes.
但说到不信营销的公司，比如霍尼韦尔，那真是完全不看重品牌，你懂的？
But as soon as we, I mean, and Honeywell, you wanna talk about a company that didn't believe in marketing, particularly brand, okay?
他们根本不信这一套，可我们还是彻底扭转了局面，对吧？
Did not believe, and yet we completely overcame that, right?
天哪。
Wow.
因为我们用数据分析贴近了他们的实际需求，对吧？
And it was because we met them where they were with analytics, right?
这些全是霍尼韦尔的业务负责人，都是工程师。
These are all, you know, the business leads at Honeywell engineers.
他们都是科学家。
They're all scientists.
每个人都特别讲逻辑。
They're all incredibly logical.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们是顺着他们的思路来，而不是硬塞什么营销创意给他们。
So we met them where they are instead of trying to sell them, you know, the creative vision of marketing.
没错。
Right.
当他们发现，品牌效应虽然见效慢，却是推动业务运转的润滑剂时……
And when they started to see that brand, for example, was heavily time lagged, but that it was grease on the wheel of the business.
强大的品牌带来的主要好处是单笔订单更大、成交更快，而不是订单数量更多。
So the primary benefits of strong brand are bigger deals and faster deals, not more deals.
他们一看见这个，就惊了，说：‘等等，你是说……’
When they saw that, they were like, Woah, you know what?
我们搞错了，这其实是个挺了不起的转折点，
We were wrong, which was kind of an amazing event all Huge, by
特别重大，非常重大。
huge, huge.
从那以后，我们开始彻底改变投资的思路。
And then we started really changing the investment paradigm.
就像慢慢调高恒温器，找到刚刚好的温度，让大家都能舒服。
And just cranking up that thermostat just to adjust it the right amount and everybody feels comfortable.
天啊，真厉害。
Oh man, wow.
这些故事太棒了，都是真实的案例，还跟很多方面都连上了。
Okay, those were amazing stories, real examples, and tied into a lot of different places.
能跟你聊这么广博的话题，我真的很高兴，因为你不是在讲理论，你就是在践行你所说的，把这么多看似不相关的东西串起来，揭示出很多企业主和营销人真正面对的问题。
I'm so glad that I'm having this polymathic conversation with you because you are you or you're living what you're kind of telling, bringing these disparate places to kind of expose just the truth of what a lot of business owners, a lot of marketers are facing.
我真的很感谢你能分享这些。
I'm just so grateful for that.
那我们来谈谈吧
So let's
对我来说，从心理和情感上讲，这真的特别让人兴奋，对吧？
Well, me also just say It is so for me, psychologically, emotionally, it's a thrill, right?
这种跨领域的思维方式——我不是说谁是天才，你也不是，没人是天才。
The polymathic process, which is, you know, I'm not saying I'm a genius or you're a genius or anyone's a genius.
明白。
Okay.
我的意思是，
Well, I mean,
能把这些点连起来，从而做出更好的决策，这简直太让人激动了。
the ability the ability to connect all these dots and make better decisions as a result is a total thrill.
真的太让人激动了。
Total thrill.
我跟几个月前聊过一位首席营销官，他说：‘我最喜欢这一点，因为它意味着我永远不会错。'
I mean, you you just you because I mean, like one this one CMO that I was talking to several months ago, he said, Look, he goes, you know, the thing I really like about this is that it means I'm never wrong.
对吧？
Right?
我听了之后停顿了一下。
And I kind of stopped for a second.
我得好好想想这话的意思。
I kind of had to think about that.
然后我才明白他想表达什么。
And then I realized what he was talking about.
所以呢，这个Proof啊，就像你手机里的导航一样。
So this is, you know, a lot like Proof is a lot like a GPS on your phone.
没错。
Right.
你用导航的时候，会出错吗？
And are you ever wrong using your GPS?
不会，对吧？
No, you're not, right?
因为如果没到目的地，那才是真的错了。
Because wrong would be you don't arrive at your destination.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
所以GPS会告诉你，你现在在这儿。
So the GPS will say, okay, this is where you are.
你要去的地方在那儿。
This is where you need to go.
它在追踪你的进展，也监控着周围所有可能影响你进度的因素。
It's tracking your progress and it's tracking everything around you that might impede or accelerate that progress.
然后突然它说：嘿，前面出车祸了。
And then all of a sudden it says, hey man, there was an accident up ahead.
前面堵得厉害。
All this traffic is stacking up.
我们得给你重新规划路线，比如左转、右转、再左转，你知道的。
We need to reroute you, you know, take a left, take a right, take a left, you know.
他就是这个意思。
That's what he meant.
而不是像以前那样拿着地图，到处问路，对吧？
As opposed to holding an old style map, right, and asking for directions
对。
Right.
那样的话，你肯定会走错。
Means you are going to be wrong.
或者你只是会花更长时间才能到达目的地。
Or you'll you'll just take longer to get to the places you need to go.
我的意思是，你也许最终还是能到。
I mean, you might get there.
对。
Right.
但如果你有个商务晚餐，结果迟到了一小时，就因为你判断错了路线，我敢说，跟你见面的那个人根本没心情听你推销。
But but if you're but if you're if you've got a business dinner and you're an hour late because you've made bad calls, something tells me that your whoever you're meeting with is not gonna be optimized to listen to your sales pitch.
马克，你这话说得还挺委婉的。
That's a generous way of phrasing that, Mark.
我们今天聊了这么多精彩的话题。
So we've hit on all these amazing topics.
你分享的那些真实案例和营销组合建模的方法，真的让人觉得它是个帮手。
You've given us amazing stories that are applicable and approaches for marketing mix modeling that that make it seem like an aid to help.
不是盲目照搬，而是用它来提出正确的问题，与其说是解决问题，不如说是发现真正的问题。
Not only just blindly follow it, but fill it with the right questions and more like not problem solving, but more like problem finding.
这些都很好，但马克，如果你要给营销人一句话，做成贴纸那种，你会说什么？
So all of that's great, but if you, Mark, had to create just a bumper sticker for marketers about analytics?
关于我们今天聊的这些，你给听众的唯一建议是什么？
What what's your one piece of advice for the audience in regards to what we've talked about today?
其实，我建议的不一定跟数据分析直接相关。
Well, it wouldn't it wouldn't necessarily be about analytics.
大概会是这样的，对吧？
It would be it would be something like this, right?
责任加上可预测性，等于成功，对吧？
That accountability plus predictability equals success, right?
企业希望看到的是，你的财务状况清晰、数据管理规范，数字资产的使用也符合合规要求。
So what the business wants from you is they want to see evidence that your finances are in order, your data's in order, that you are within compliance parameters on how you're managing your digital assets.
这些统统都属于营销资源管理，对吧？
So all that kind of stuff, that's MRM, Right?
而另一部分则关乎成效的证明。
And then you've got which is all about proof of impact.
核心就是可预测性。
It's all about predictability.
关键在于能提前预判、准确把握趋势。
It's all about being able to forecast and call the shot.
对吧？
Right?
我是说，上周末我看了《壮志凌云2》，那部电影真棒。
I mean, I I saw Top Gun, Maverick, you know, last weekend of awesome movies.
是啊。
Yep.
对。
Yep.
没错。
Yep.
真不可思议，时隔三十四年，续集居然比原版还出色。
Amazing that thirty four years later, the sequel's better than the original.
我也是这么听说的。
That's what I've heard.
过去并不只是序章，朋友们。
That like Look at the past is not prologue, friends.
你好。
Hello.
过去不代表未来。
Past is not prologue.
对吧？
Right?
但他呢，你知道，他看着这一切，想着——汤姆·克鲁斯。
But he, you know, I mean, he was he was looking at all this and saying I mean, Tom Cruise.
没错，没错，当然。
Right, right, Yeah.
他看着这些，心里琢磨：怎么才能把这部续集做得比原版好太多，好到从商业角度来说，彻底打破所有人的预期，成为一场巨大的票房成功？
Was looking at all this and saying, How can I make this so much better than the old one that from a purely business point of view, it's gonna override everybody's expectations to such an extent that this is gonna be a huge financial success?
作为营销人员，这不就是你真正想达到的目标吗？
That is really what you're after as a marketer, right?
你得能理解过去，还得准确预测未来，不是那种死板的预测，对吧？
Want to be able to understand the past and you want to be able to accurately predict the future, not just in a static way, right?
而是动态的——不断预测、再预测、再预测、再预测。
But dynamically, which means you predict and you re predict and you re predict and you re predict.
所以，这其实就是GPS类比的精髓，对吧？
So this is the GPS analogy in a nutshell, right?
没错，我看过他的采访，他确实提到过，他说自己花了三十年才拍出这部电影，是因为他慢慢意识到该怎么做，而且是一步一步想明白的。
That's exactly what, I mean, Cruz was actually talking about this on the interview that I saw because he said, you know, one of the reasons why it took me thirty years to make this movie is that I realized what needed to be done, but I realized it very incrementally.
对吧？
Right?
你之前说的那些小步调整，而不是大转弯，正好说明了这个过程是怎么运作的，对吧？
So what you said earlier about making lots and lots of incremental changes as opposed to a harder right turn, That's the way that this operates, right?
你就是在不断调整，不停地调整。
You're just constantly adjusting, constantly adjusting.
所以，这两点——问责和可预测性——加在一起，对高管层来说简直是无价之宝，对吧？
And so that right there, those two things together, the accountability and the predictability, that is solid gold to your C suite, right?
如果你真能这样做事，根本不用担心出问题。
I mean, like, if you are operating in that way, you will have no problems.
这又回到你之前说的那个人了，他说自己从不出错。
And that goes back to your guy saying, I'm never wrong.
也不是说他从来不会错。
It's it's not that it's not that he's, you know, never wrong.
他只是有个参照点，能给他启发。
He just has something, a touchstone to inspire.
我写的是，你要不断感知周围环境，来为你的行动提供背景。
And what I wrote was that you keep pinging your environment to bring context to the content.
如果没有这个，你就做不出什么明智的决定，可大家都只盯着那个关键性的大动作。
So without that, you're not gonna make any good moves, but everybody's obsessed with a big pivotal move.
非得做点什么，赶紧做点什么。
We gotta make a move, make a move.
但如果你能慢慢调整，慢慢校准方向，反而更容易走上成功的路。
And you're like, if you can adjust slowly and then you bring it to the right course, you're much more set on the path of success.
对。
Yeah.
而且你的风险也会大大降低。
And your risk levels are also reduced tremendously.
对吧？
Right?
传统做法的大问题是，模型每六到十二个月才重新计算一次。
So the big risk in traditional is that the models are recalc ed every six to twelve months.
刚算完的时候，预测准确性可能是最高的。
And so right after they're calculated, they're probably at their most accurate in terms of being predictive.
但随着时间推移，如果不重新计算，你对原来那个结果的信心就会越来越低，对吧？
But as time passes without any additional recalculation, your uncertainty about the validity of that original calculation has to take a hit, right?
等六个月或一年后再算一次，每次都像从头再来一样艰难。
And so then when you calculate it six or twelve months later, it's always a hard write.
问题还在于，等你算出来的时候，已经太晚了，对吧？
The it's problem is that it's also too late, right?
传统方法的难点在于，当你拿到预测结果、每六个月或十二个月重算一次时，这些预测本身早就过时了，对吧？
So one of the things that's really tough about traditional is that when you get the forecasts and you're recalcating every twelve months or every six months, The forecast, even the forecasts are in the past, right?
这根本不是它该有的运作方式。
That's not the way it's supposed to operate.
这根本创造不了价值，对吧？
That's not creating value, right?
所以，这就是Proof的厉害之处，对吧？
And so, you know, that's the virtue of Proof, right?
你得跟业务的节奏同步，甚至还得更快。
You've got to be as fast or faster than the clock speed of the business.
大多数企业都是按自己的节奏来衡量数据的。
And most businesses measure stuff at their clock speed.
如果你能用这个节奏作为模型重新计算的触发点，那就完美了。
So if you can use that as the trigger for the recalc of the models, you're gold.
天啊，这真是太棒了。
Man, this has been amazing.
真的太感谢你了。
I can't thank you enough.
有些人可能想进一步了解Proof Analytics，了解Mark，还有你的方法和思路。
People maybe wanna connect and learn more about Proof Analytics, more about Mark, more about your approaches and and thinking.
大家在哪里能找到你，更多地了解你呢？
Where can people find you online and learn more about you?
首先，公司的网站是 proofanalytics.ai，名字就是这么直接。
So, first of all, company, website is proofanalytics.ai, just like it sounds.
我在领英上非常活跃。
I am really active on LinkedIn.
你随时都可以在那儿联系我，不管是私信还是公开留言都行。
And so you can reach me there, you know, at any time privately or not.
我一定会回复的。
And I will I will answer.
你完全可以放心。
You can absolutely be depend.
我也在推特上。
You can depend on that.
我也会回复的。
I'm also on Twitter.
我的推特账号是 Mark Stouse，拼写是 M-A-R-K-S-T-O-U-S-E。
It's my my Twitter address is Mark Stouse, M A R K S T O U S E.
所以，联系我的最好方式就是这两个平台，期待你的消息。
And so those are probably the two best ways to reach me and hope to hear from you.
我觉得我们真的能做到。
I think we can really do it.
我们帮过那么多个人和团队，每当有人不愿意接受帮助，或者觉得我们帮不上忙，我都觉得特别遗憾——因为我们真的能帮上忙。
We help so many people and so many teams that it it's kinda it's always a bummer when somebody doesn't wanna be helped or doesn't think we can help them because it we really can.
奶酪还是巧克力？
Cheese or chocolate?
克林特，你准备好了吗？
Clint, are you ready?
当然，没问题。
Yeah, sure.
好的，那奶酪还是巧克力？
Okay, so cheese or chocolate?
奶酪。
Cheese.
摇滚还是古典？
Rock or classical?
这可真难选。
Oh, that's tough.
我得选摇滚，但我特别喜欢歌剧，那时候歌剧就跟现在的摇滚乐一样火爆。
I would have to go with rock, but I'm a huge opera fan, which at the time was the equivalent of rock and roll.
完全没错。
Totally.
特别火。
Huge.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
就像Kiss乐队演出时那样，烟火特效，全都有。
Like Kiss on stage, pyrotechnics, all that stuff.
是的，完全没错。
Yeah, absolutely.
夏天还是冬天？
Summer or winter?
哦，这真是个好问题。
Oh, that's a really great question.
说实话，我大半辈子都更喜欢冬天，但如今我特别享受夏天。
You know, I think for most of my life I would have said winter, I really enjoy summer today a lot.
不过呢，住在亚利桑那，夏天有时候确实挺难熬的。
And but I, you know, I kind of you know, living in Arizona, summer can be a little daunting from time to time.
对啊。
Yeah.
所以，像拉古纳比奇这样的夏天，才是我最喜欢的吧？
So, you know, summer how about summer in Laguna Beach is kind of my thing?
我觉得这应该是每个人的心头好。
I think that's everybody's thing.
好的。
Alright.
下一个，葡萄酒之旅还是关于葡萄酒的旅行？
Next one, wine tour or wine about tours?
我可是个葡萄酒迷。
Well, I'm a huge wine guy.
那我肯定会选葡萄酒之旅。
So I would have to say the wine tour.
你知道的，就是那个。
You know, the the yeah.
我还是选这个吧。
I would have to go with that.
之前我们还聊过历史的事儿。
I have, you know, so you and I were talking about history earlier.
平时呢，我是个中世纪历史学者，真真正正的那种。
So avocationally, I am a medieval historian, like a like a real one.
对吧？
Right?
挺酷的。
Cool.
我经常接触原始文献，主要研究15世纪到16世纪初的法国和英国。
So I work with a lot of original texts and I kind of specialize in the fifteenth and early sixteenth century, primarily in France and England.
没错。
Right.
我老婆老拿这事笑话我，但有时候遇到导游自己都不懂还讲得无聊，我就忍不住插嘴，简直气死我了。
And and I have been known, like my wife gives me a really super hard time about this when it happens, but I've been known to take over tours where the tour guide doesn't know what they're talking about or generally is boring, and it and it just frustrates the hell out of me.
结果呢，我就老不自觉地又干了同样的事。
And so I I just kind of tend to slide into the into the same problem.
所以我觉得，还是选葡萄酒之旅吧。
So I think it's probably wine about wine tours.
这或许就是你的答案。
Maybe that's your answer.
一种混合型的解决方式。
For a hybridized solution.
你能想到这一点，真有意思。
Very interesting that you came to that.
好。
Alright.
接着说。
Keep going.
史蒂薇·温德还是史蒂薇·尼克斯？
Stevie Wonder or Stevie Nicks?
史蒂薇·尼克斯。
Oh, Stevie Nicks.
行。
K.
这答案可太明显了。
That's a landslide answer.
最后一个问题，是去棒球赛上投球，还是向投资人推介项目？
And finally, pitch at a baseball game or pitch to investors.
哦，我觉得很多人会选第二个，因为我在这方面一直挺成功的。
Oh, well, I think I think a lot of people would say that would say pick number two because I generally have been pretty successful with it.
但我其实并不太喜欢做这个。
But I I actually don't enjoy it very much.
是的。
Yeah.
我也不太喜欢那种特别推销的感觉，真的那种硬销。
And I and I don't really enjoy selling a whole lot, like real selling a whole lot.
我更偏向于提供咨询的那种方式。
I'm more of a consultative person.
所以我几乎从不在领英上发商业推广内容，因为那会妨碍我帮助别人。
And so like, you know, I hardly ever go commercial on LinkedIn because to me that gets in the way of my ability to help people.
因为一旦他们看到，就会用商业的眼光来看我所有的评论。
Because they see it they'll start to see all my comments through this commercial lens.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我更愿意去棒球赛上做推介。
So so I would I would say that I would rather pitch at a baseball game.
我特别喜欢棒球，所以这对我来说也挺自然的。
And I love baseball, so that makes that also pretty easy.
不过说实话，认识我的人可能不会觉得我是个低调的人，但说到推销，我确实比一般销售员要低调多了。
But but, yeah, no, I I just I'm I'm kind of a I don't think anyone that knows me would say that I am a low key individual, but when it comes to selling, I am pretty low key compared to your average sales guy.
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