现在是买入Salesforce股票的好时机吗？顶级SaaS股票分析（CRM股票分析）

在今天的节目中，我们将深入了解Salesforce这家公司。财报发布后其股价上涨26%，并有重大消息称该公司将入选道琼斯30指数。我将从以下几个方面展开分析：首先快速概述公司及其财报情况。

On today's episode, we are gonna take a look at Salesforce. This company is up 26% after their earnings and some big news that this company is entering the Dow 30. So I'm gonna take a look at the company. The episode is gonna be broken down into the following. First, I just went through a quick overview of the company and their earnings.

接着我想探讨其未来增长前景。这家公司在未来几年预计如何发展？是否仍有增长空间？同时我也会回顾其过往增长轨迹。

Then I want to take a look at their future growth. How is this company expected to grow in the upcoming years? Is this Is there still room for this company to grow? I also want to take a look at their past growth to see where this company has been. Next, I want to take a look at highlights from their earnings.

最后我将简要分析其资产负债表以确保财务稳健性。节目结尾我会分享对公司的整体看法，并判断当前是否值得投资Salesforce。若您希望早在本视频前、在27%涨幅前就了解这家公司，请务必点击订阅。上季度财报后我曾讨论过Salesforce，当时其股价实际下跌3%，而短短一个季度形势就发生逆转。

Finally, I want to do a quick overview of their balance sheets to make sure this company is financially stable. At the end, I just want to give my overall thoughts on the company and want to see if I'm willing to invest in Salesforce right now. And if you wish you would have known about Salesforce before this video, before the 27%, make sure to hit that subscribe button. I talked about Salesforce before last earnings where it was actually down 3% after earnings. And look how things changed in just a matter of a quarter.

如今涨幅达27%，自上次财报（约三个月前）至今累计上涨约65%。新观众若您是长期投资者，想了解黄金股投资，请点击订阅。老观众们衷心感谢你们的支持。想联系我可通过YouTube评论、Twitter、Discord频道、Twitch或每周通讯等多种方式。

Now it's up 27% and since last earnings, I want to say that was about three months ago, this company is around right now 65% up. So if you are new to my channel, you are long term investor, if you want to learn about gold stocks, make sure to hit the subscribe button. To all my returning viewers, thank you so much for the support. I truly appreciate it. If you guys ever want to get in contact with me, can find me on the YouTube comments, you can find me on Twitter, my Discord channel, Twitch, my weekly newsletter and so much more.

所有联系方式详见置顶评论。但请注意这些信息均为免费提供，我并非专业人士，内容不应视为投资建议。进行财务决策前请务必咨询理财顾问。好的，让我们首先来看Salesforce。

All the information should be on the pinned comments. But remember all this information is free. I am by no means a professional so none of this should be taken as advice. Make sure to talk to a financial advisor before making any financial movements. All right, so first let's take a look at Salesforce.

关于Salesforce首先要理解其业务本质。很多人称其为SaaS或软件公司，但在我看来这种说法过于笼统——因为SaaS和软件公司涉及不同细分市场，这无法准确界定Salesforce的业务范畴。

And the first thing I want to talk about Salesforce is try to understand what they do. Many people call Salesforce a SaaS company or a software company. And to me that's such a wrong way to say it, right? Because SaaS companies, software companies all hit different markets. So that alone doesn't really break down what Salesforce does.

Salesforce实质上是家CRM公司。CRM工具全称客户关系管理系统，其核心功能是帮助企业管理潜在销售机会，整合所有客户数据。这类数据能协助企业洞悉客户偏好、产品主要销售区域、购买人群特征、潜在爆款产品及大客户资源等。具体功能包含邮件集成、关系管理、销售呼叫、邮件营销等模块。

Salesforce is a company that deals with CRM. All right, so let me explain to you guys what CRM tools. So CRM tool stands for customers relationship management and pretty much what CRM tools are to help businesses be able to manage potential sales, to pretty much have all this data within the company about their customers. And this type of data will help the company with so many things like understanding what products their customers like, understanding where their products are mainly sold, who buys their products, what would be a great leading product to sell, who would be great potential big clients. So it's, for example, they have email integrations, they have relationship management, sales call, email marketing.

你甚至可以访问销售网站，比如salesforce.com，他们会告诉你他们提供的产品。借助全球第一的销售平台，他们能帮助你更快速、更智能地销售。他们提供客户支持、市场营销、商务往来和互动参与等服务，让你能与客户的平台对接，并与其他应用集成。他们还提供数据分析服务，为你呈现数据结果。尤其是在当今客户遍布全球的背景下，理解来自客户的数据至关重要。

You can even go to sales websites, salesforce.com website, and they tell you the products they do. They help sell faster and smarter with the world's number one sales platform. They have services to help manage your customer support, marketing, commerce, engagement to allow you to engage with your customers' platforms, integrations with other apps. They have analytics to give you the results of their data. And especially now, in the world where your customers are worldwide, you need to understand the data coming from them.

需要有能力生产，为他们提供优质服务，进行出色的市场营销。因此，Salesforce无疑处在一个我认为非常看涨并将持续增长的市场中。好了，现在让我们看看Salesforce最近的财报。他们的收入达到了51亿美元，同比增长27%，比预期高出约2亿美元。按照GAAP标准，每股收益为2.85美元，实际上超出了2.86美元——这在我看来简直不可思议，他们远超预期这么多。根据分析师的观点，他们原本预计今年会是亏损的。

Need to be able to produce, to have great services for them, to have great marketing. So Salesforce is definitely in a market that I feel is very bullish and will continue to grow. All right, so now let's take a look at Salesforce most recent earnings. They did revenue of $5,100,000,000 and that's up 27% year over year and that'd be estimation by about $200,000,000 We have GAAP earnings per share of $2.85 which actually beat by $2.86 That to me is crazy that they beat expectations by that much. They were actually expected to be negative this year from what it looks like based on analysts.

由此可见，他们的盈利表现非常出色，难怪这家公司今天股价上涨了近30%。目前势头正猛，我们可以看到其市值达到了2450亿美元。好了，现在让我们看看分析师对Salesforce未来增长的预期。我们已经知道分析师并不总是对的，但他们大致给出了预期的范围。未来三年，Salesforce的年均收入预计将增长15.5%。

So here we can see they did great earnings and no wonder this company is up almost 30% for the day. It's just kicking butt right now, but we can see this market cap of $245,000,000,000. All right, so now let's take a look at the future growth that analysts expect for Salesforce. We can already see that analysts are not always right, but they kind of give us a ballpoint of what's expected. Salesforce for the next three years is expected to grow its revenue annually on average 15.5%.

这并不意味着每年都会增长15.5%——可能某一年增长45%，某一年20%，某一年5%。但在这三年内，平均增长率会是15.5%。许多我关注的投资者认为15%的增长属于高增长公司。因此，看到这家市值已达2450亿美元的公司未来三年仍能保持15%的平均增长，确实令人印象深刻。

That does not mean every year is gonna grow 15.5%. Maybe one year might be 45, maybe one year might be 20, maybe one year might be 5%. But on average within those three years it'll be 15.5%. Many people and many investors I follow consider a 15% growth to be a high growth company. So that's really impressive to see this company that's already a $245,000,000,000 market cap still growing 15% on average for the next three years.

这一增速不仅快于行业水平，也超越了整体市场。接下来，我们预计其未来三年的平均盈利增长将达到52.5%。再次强调，这既快于行业，也快于市场。通常，看到一家公司收入增长超52.5%时，你会预期它尚未盈利——但Salesforce并非如此。目前它已经盈利，并且未来几年将持续盈利。

And this is faster than the industry and this is faster than the market. Next, we're expecting their earnings growth to be 52.5 on average for the next three years. And again, this is faster than the industry and this is faster than the market. And normally when we see a company that's beating revenues growth by 52.5%, you would expect the company to be not profitable, but that's not the case. Right now Salesforce is already profitable and they are going to continue to be profitable in the upcoming years.

在上个季度（截至4月29日），他们确实报告了盈利亏损，我猜这就是分析师此前看衰本次财报的原因。但最终，他们今年和本季度的GAAP每股收益都实现了正值。可见随着收入持续增长，这家公司的盈利也在同步提升。我们面对的是一家兼具强劲增长与盈利能力的公司。但Salesforce一直如此吗？2019年其收入同比增长29%，

Their last quarter, which was April 29, they did report a loss in earnings and I'm guessing that's why analysts might have expected this earnings to be bad, but at the end of the day they were positive on this year's GAAP, on this quarter's GAAP earnings per share. But we can see earnings for this company is continuing to grow as the revenue continues to grow. So we have a strong growth company with strong earnings coming up. But has this always been the case for Salesforce? In 2019 Salesforce grew its revenue 29% year over year.

2018年增长26%，2017年增长25%。这无疑是一家持续强劲增长的企业。而就在本季度，其增速又超出预期27.5%。这告诉我，尽管如我所言，Salesforce已是市值2500亿美元的巨头，但丝毫没有放缓的迹象。还有一点我尚未提及：Salesforce已入选道琼斯三十指数，对于交易者或短期投资者而言，这可能是利好消息，因为这进一步强化了其看涨的声誉。

In 2018 they grew 26% year over year and in 2017 it grew 25% year over year. So this is definitely one with constant strong growth and just this quarter we see a 27.5% beat. This tells me that Salesforce is still not slowing down even though, like I mentioned, it's a $250,000,000,000 market cap company. It has no signs of slowing down. One thing I haven't mentioned yet is Salesforce has joined the Dow thirty and for as a trader or as a short term investor, that might be great news because it kind of gives more of a bullish name to Salesforce.

但对我这样的长期投资者而言，加入道指三十强并未真正改变公司的基本面。公司的核心要素依然如故。作为长期投资者，看到这种情况固然不错，但这不会影响我是否持有Salesforce的决定。现在让我们看看他们公司的亮点，接下来我们来看看本次财报的亮点部分。

But for me as a long term investor, them joining the Dow thirty doesn't really change much in the fundamental aspects of the company. The fundamentals of the company still stay the same. So as a long term investor, something like that, it's good to see, but it's not something that changes my mind in getting in or out of Salesforce. All right, so now let's take a look at some highlights of their company. All right, so now let's take a look at some highlights for this earnings.

正如我提到的，Salesforce本季度营收接近50亿美元。其中销售云业务贡献了12.8亿美元，同比增长13%。正如我们所见，销售云是帮助企业拓展客户销售的集成方案。他们还拥有服务云产品线用于客户支持，该业务创造了13亿美元收入，同比增长20%。

Salesforce right now, like I mentioned, did close to $5,000,000,000 on earnings this quarter. Dollars 1,280,000,000.00 of that came from Sales Cloud. That is up 13%. And like we saw, Sales Cloud is integration that helps companies grow their sales within their customers. They also have the Service Cloud products for customer support, which delivered 1,300,000,000 That revenue is up 20%.

可以看出这两个业务板块——销售云和服务云（即客户支持业务）贡献了公司近半总收入。公司平台及其他类别包含Tableau数据可视化业务。如果各位看过我关于AYX的视频，Tableau正是AYX能集成的产品之一，我此前确实不知道Salesforce已收购他们。Salesforce去年以148亿美元收购Tableau后，来自平台及其他类别的收入达到15亿美元，同比激增66%。可见Salesforce所有业务板块都实现了两位数可观增长。

So we can see those two sectors, just the cloud sales, sales cloud, and we have the service cloud, which is their customer support, delivered close to half of this company's total revenue. The company's platform and other category, which includes Tableau data visualization. If you guys have watched my AYX, Tableau is one of the products that AYX can integrate with, and I actually did not know that Salesforce owned them. And Salesforce acquired them last year for $14,800,000,000 and that came to a $1,500,000,000 revenue coming from the company's platform and other categories, which is up nearly 66%. So we can see all the categories that Salesforce is in is up a nice amount, double digits.

他们不仅在营收表现优异，更为下季度及全年提供了极其亮眼的业绩指引。上季度股价下跌的主因就是下调了指引，而这季度调低指引后他们承认判断失误，现在又重新上调了预测。目前预计全年营收约207亿美元，接近208亿美元，而市场普遍预期仅为200亿美元，这相比分析师预期是个巨大飞跃。

Not only did they do great in the revenue, they also gave amazing, amazing guidance for next quarter and for the full year. And last quarter, one of the main reasons this company was down last quarter was because they lowered their guidance. But now after lowering the guidance this quarter they say, hey, they were wrong. We're raising our guidance back up. They are forecasted to have somewhere about $20,700,000,000 for the year, close to 20.7 to $20,800,000,000 The overall consensus was about $20,000,000,000 So that's a pretty big jump based on what analysts expected.

他们还上调了每股收益指引，从去年同期的2.93美元提升至3.72-3.74美元区间，近1美元的跃升。市场普遍预期仅为2.96美元。可见Salesforce不仅本季财报惊艳，其业绩指引更是全面超越分析师预期，这些利好共同推动股价上涨。现在让我们快速浏览他们的演示材料，看看有什么亮点。可以看到我们讨论过的四大创收产品线。

They also raised their guidance on earnings per share. Now they give $3.72 to $3.74 when the overall guidance last quarter was $2.93 So almost a dollar jump there. The overall consensus, which is what analysts expected, was $2.96 So we can see not only does Salesforce do amazing earnings this quarter, it also is reporting great guidance better than what analysts have expected, and all of this added together is driving the stock price up. So now let's take a quick look at the presentation they had just to see if there's anything cool that they have. So we can see there are four products that we talked about that Salesforce is in where they collect their revenue.

他们拥有销售云、服务云、Salesforce平台及其他业务，还有营销云和商务云。所有这些业务都实现了两位数增长。在我看来平台及其他业务66%的年增长率令人惊叹，但我认为这主要得益于收购Tableau的贡献。Tableau...关于Tableau，我上期视频讨论时有人纠正过我的说法，很抱歉当时没听进去。

They have Sales Cloud, they have Service Cloud, they have Salesforce platforms and others and they have Marketing Cloud and Commerce Cloud. And we can see all of these are up double digits. To me it's pretty impressive for Salesforce platform and others to be 66% year over year, but I do believe a huge portion is because of that acquisition with Tableau. Tableau, Tableau, I know someone in my last video when I talked about them corrected me. I'm sorry for not listening.

请务必原谅我。这里我们还能看到各区域增长情况，他们在全球范围都实现增长：美洲地区、欧洲中东非洲地区、亚太及中国地区均呈现增长态势。

Please, please forgive me. Here we can also see what regions they are seeing growth in and they are seeing growth all over the world. They are seeing growth in Americas. They are seeing growth in Europe, Middle East and Africa. They are seeing growth in Asia Pacific and China.

这向我展示了这家公司是如何在全球范围内发展的。再次强调，观察盈利情况的一大好处是能帮助你理解整体市场的反应。如果所有这些国家目前都在Salesforce销售方面表现良好，那么在这些市场中若有公司触及相似的细分领域、相似的市场和产品，我预计它们也会表现不错。因此，我认为查看其他公司的盈利情况很重要，这有助于理解全球市场的动态。接下来我想看看他们的资产负债表。

This to me shows how this company is growing all over. And again, this kind of gives the great thing about taking a look at earnings, it kind of helps you understand how the overall market is reacting as well. So if all these countries are doing well right now in form of Salesforce sales, if there's a company that's within these markets that hit similar niches, that hit similar markets and products, I would expect them to do well. So I do believe it's important to take a look at other companies' earnings to just try to understand what's happening around the world in the forms of markets. So next I want to take a look at their balance sheet.

尽管这家公司在盈利，我仍想确认他们拥有稳健的资产负债表以度过困难时期。我们开始吧，这里对比的是当前7月31日和1月31日（约半年前或上个财年末）的数据。现金及现金等价物基本持平，可交易证券大幅增加，总体而言，该公司目前拥有约90亿美元的速动现金。流动资产总额较半年前下降约10亿美元——在我看来变化不大，尤其考虑到该公司仍持有大量现金，这是可以理解的。

Even though this company is making money, I still want to make sure they have a nice balance sheet to be able to survive during bad times. So let's start off and this is comparing right now July 31 to January 31, which was about six months ago or the beginning of or at the end of their last fiscal year. So cash and cash equivalents are pretty much the same. There has been a huge bump up in marketable securities, but overall, so this company right now has about $9,000,000,000 of quick cash. Total current assets compared to six months ago dropped about $1,000,000,000 Not a big change in my opinion, especially that this company still has a huge amount of cash available to them, but that's understandable.

另一个重点是应收账款。当前流动资产下降的主要原因是应收账款减少。应收账款是指未来12个月内预期从其他公司收回的款项。目前看来，相比1月31日，欠款的客户数量和金额都有所下降。这让我回想起分析他们盈利报告时的发现。

Another thing is account The main reason the company, the current assets are down right now is because accounts receivables. So accounts receivables is money expected within the next twelve months from other companies. So some of their customers still owe them to pay. So right now it seems like not many customers owe them a lot of money compared to when they do in January 31. And now this is actually bringing back things when I was looking at their earnings.

他们确实提到，Salesforce平均收入（可在经营现金流中体现）存在季度性差异：第四季度和第一季度往往高于第二、三季度。我们现在查看的资产负债表对应的是第四季度数据，而当前处于第二季度——众所周知第四季度表现更优，因此应收账款减少是正常的。

They do mention that Salesforce on average, the amount of revenue they collect, and you can see it in their operating cash flow, depends on the quarter. Quarter four and quarter one tend to be higher compared to quarter two and quarter three. So we can see right though that balance sheet that we're looking at takes place, the one we're comparing it takes place in quarter four. Right now we're in quarter two where we know quarter four is a better quarter compared to quarter two. So that's why those accounts receivables are off.

归根结底，看到现金量增长令人欣慰。应收账款减少对Salesforce这类公司而言不足为奇。我们来看看总资产情况：目前总资产增加约20亿美元，但其中大部分来自商誉增值——这表明该公司近期可能进行了收购。

So at the end of the day, this is to me is a nice jump to see that amount of cash jump up. The accounts receivable decrease is not that big of a deal because it is expected for a company like Salesforce. Let's take a jump at their total assets. Total assets right now have increased by about $2,000,000,000 but most of that $2,000,000,000 is coming from is coming from goodwill. Goodwill to me is this company most likely did some form of acquisition recently and some of that goodwill comes in.

在我看来商誉基本是虚增资产，因此其增长并非好事。不过至少总资产没有减少，这算好消息。现在观察总负债：目前约190亿美元，较两季度前的210亿美元有所下降。

Goodwill is pretty much a fake asset to me. So to see that increase is not not a great thing, but still their total assets at least have not decreased. So that's a great thing. Now let's take a look at their total liabilities. Right now this company has total liabilities about 19,000,000,000 This $19,000,000,000 is lower than they did two quarters ago, which was $21,000,000,000 So there has been a decrease in total liabilities.

需要说明的是，他们存在未实现收入（很多人称之为递延收入）。理解这个概念很简单——以Netflix为例：当你支付年度订阅费时，这笔收入就属于递延收入。老观众应该知道我要如何展开这个例子了。

One thing I want to say is they have unearned revenue. Unearned revenue is what many consider deferred revenue and deferred revenue is very easy to understand. Let's take a look the best if you guys have been watching my channel for a long time, already know where I'm gonna go with this. Imagine Netflix. So you know how you pay for Netflix, you pay for a year subscription.

但假设你只使用了年度订阅中的两个月，尽管Netflix已经收取了全年费用，剩余十个月未提供服务的部分将被记为未实现收入。因为虽然他们已收取这笔收入，但尚未向你提供相应产品来在账面上确认。因此，未实现收入是他们已收取但尚未入账的资金，因为他们尚未交付产品。在我看来，这几乎像是一种虚假负债。如果我们用总负债减去这部分未实现收入，这家公司的实际总负债接近100到110亿美元。

But let's say you've only used two months of that year subscription, even though Netflix has already pulled that money from you, their other the remaining ten months that they haven't given you a service for goes as unearned revenue. Because even though they collected that revenue, they still haven't given you the product to actually collect it in the books. So that unearned revenue is money they've collected but have yet to write it on the books because they have yet to give the product to you. So to me, that to me is almost like a fake liability. So if we reduce this unearned revenue by this total liabilities, this company has close to $10 to $11,000,000,000 of total liabilities.

这家公司目前持有的现金几乎足以清偿全部负债，在我看来这是非常非常强劲的资产负债表，特别是考虑到他们的债务只有约27亿美元。即使他们只想偿还全部债务，也仍有余力且会剩余大量现金。因此CRM（Salesforce）的资产负债表非常出色。现在来看看我的观点：Salesforce目前市值2500亿美元，他们所在的市场我认为处于牛市，公司增长势头强劲。

This company right now has enough cash, almost enough cash, to pretty much pay off its total liabilities and that to me is a very very strong balance sheet, especially since their debt is only about $2,700,000,000 So even if they just want to pay off their total debt, they still can and have plenty of cash left over. So CRM, Salesforce has a very great balance sheet. Now let's take a look at my thoughts. So Salesforce right now is $250,000,000,000 They are in markets that I believe are bullish. They have great growth in the company.

他们在收入和利润方面都表现出强劲增长，已经实现盈利，并提高了未来几年的业绩指引，资产负债表也非常健康。这样的公司有什么理由不喜欢呢？

They're showing strong growth in both revenue and earnings. They're already profitable. They have increased their guidance for the upcoming years. They have a very strong balance sheet. So what's there not to like?

对我来说，Salesforce——如果你们不知道的话——我把公司分为多个层级。第一层级是我最看好的股票，我会重仓持有；第二层级是我仍然看好但信心中等的公司；第三层级是我认为会成为多倍股但风险较高的公司。正如我所说，这完全基于我的偏好和看好程度。

For me Salesforce, if you guys don't know, I have multiple tiers of company. Tier ones are my best stocks, the ones I go heavy on. Then I have tier two, which I'm like, I'm still bullish in them, but I'm mediumly convicted in. And then I have tier three companies that I believe will be multi baggers, but have the greater risk. And like I said, it's pretty much on my preference and on my bullishness level.

第一层级是我的最爱，我其实做过一个关于我九支第一层级股票的视频，记得去看看。但Salesforce对我来说永远不会进入第一层级视频，尽管它具备所有这些优点，我个人更倾向于进入其他市场而非CRM工具领域。这并不意味着——就像我们看到的——Salesforce没有这些出色的特质。

Tier 1s are my favorite and I've actually done a video of my nine tier one stocks, so make sure to check that out. Salesforce for me will never make it at a tier one video, at a tier one. Even though it has all these great things, personally, I have other markets that I am willing to enter over the CRM tools. This does not mean like we saw. We have all these great aspects of Salesforce.

在我看来，Salesforce肯定可以归为第二层级或第三层级公司。这意味着它可能只占我投资组合的2%到3%。但归根结底，即使这是支多倍股，想象一下2%-3%的多倍股也能带来可观回报。这就是我的市场策略。如果想看我的投资组合，我一个月前做过更新，可能这几天会再更新一次。

To me Salesforce is one that can either be a tier two, for sure be a tier three, a tier three or tier two. So this means it's probably one that will be a small portion of my portfolio, somewhere between 2% to 3%. But at the end of the day, even if this is a multi bagger, imagine a multi bagger, even 2%, 3% gives you a lot of returns. And that's the type of way I play in the market. If you want to take a look at my portfolio, I did an update about a month ago, I'll probably do one in the upcoming days.

但对我来说这种策略很有效。目前我需要重新审视持仓来看持有多少Salesforce。如果觉得还能加仓，我会进行美元成本平均策略，但这不是我现在会全力买入的标的。希望大家喜欢本期内容，像往常一样保重，晚安，下次见！

But to me that style works for me. So Salesforce is one that at the moment I have to relook at my portfolio to see how much it owns. If I feel like I can still add a little bit, I will dollar cost average in between, but it's not a position I will go out right now and buy full force head on. So I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. Like always take care, like always have a good night and see you next time!