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加密货币是世界上赚钱最容易的地方。
Crypto is the easiest place in the world to make money.
但也是最难守住钱的地方。
It's just the most impossible to hold on to it.
最困难的是，每隔三四年就会有一次熊市。
And the most difficult thing is that every three, four years, you have a bear market.
它试图把所有人都淘汰掉，最后只有少数人幸存下来。
It attempts to wipe out everyone, and then a few survive.
在加密货币领域致富，有哪些没人愿意听的秘诀？
What are the secrets to getting rich in crypto that nobody wants to hear?
我之前说过。
I said this before.
秘诀不在于Dan Tapiero，50T基金的创始人。
The trick is not Dan Tapiero, the founder of 50T Funds.
一家17亿美元的数字资产投资公司。
A $1,700,000,000 digital asset investment firm.
一位资深宏观投资者，支持比特币和区块链基础设施。
A veteran macro investor backing Bitcoin, blockchain infrastructure
以及人工智能与加密货币的融合。
And the convergence of AI and crypto.
富人对于金钱的理解，
What do
有哪些是大多数人不明白的？
rich people understand about money that most people don't?
我经常跟我的孩子们说一句话。
I always say something to my kids.
你之所以富有，是因为你拥有钱，而不是因为你花钱。
You are wealthy because you have money, not because you spend it.
当你花钱的时候，钱就没了。
When you spend it, it goes away.
你在社交媒体上看到的所有那些过度消费、私人飞机之类的。
You see in all the social media, all this excessive spending and jets and this and that.
实际上，有钱人会更谨慎、更务实一些。
The reality is wealthy people are a little more careful and more practical.
我们现在处于加密财富周期的哪个阶段？
Where are we in the great crypto wealth cycle?
我们正处于流动资产数字化的第一阶段，但非流动资产数字化才是我们领域的终极目标。
We're in the first inning of the digitization of liquid assets, but digitization of illiquid assets is the holy grail for our space.
到那时人们才会真正理解区块链的价值。
That's when people understand the value of blockchain.
如果我们找到一家年收入在5000万到1亿美元之间、真正在做非流动资产代币化的公司，我们会投入数亿美元。
If we find a company that's making 50 to $100,000,000 in revenue that is doing something in the tokenization of illiquid assets for real, we'll put hundreds of millions into that.
流动资产上链，但目前规模还不大。
This liquid asset coming on chain, but it's nothing big yet.
但在流动资产方面，规模正在变得巨大。
But on the liquid side, it's becoming massive.
有什么好的方式来押注这个趋势？
What's some good ways to bet on this trend?
变分法是一种玩法。
Variational is one way to play that.
我觉得炒作是另一种，而且你还有像……
I think hype is another and you have things like...
大家好。
Hey, everyone.
在《When Shift Happens》，我们最喜欢做的事情之一就是查看数据，以便每周都为你们做得更好。
One of our absolute favorite things at When Shift Happens is to look at our data to improve what we're doing for you every single week.
每周查看数据时，我们注意到的一件事是，你们中有多少人经常看这个播客，但还没有订阅。
And one of the things that we notice every week when going through our data is how many of you regularly watch this podcast but still have not subscribed.
所以，如果你想帮助我们每周请到更好的嘉宾，花两秒钟点击视频下方的订阅按钮吧。
And so if you want to help us get even better guests every week, take two seconds and click that subscribe button just below this video.
感谢你们今天与我们同在，也感谢你们每周的支持。
Thank you for being with us today and for supporting us every week.
现在，让我们开始今天的节目吧。
And now, let's get to today's show.
丹，你在世界上最优秀的一些投资者身边待了三十年。
Dan, you've spent thirty years around some of the world's best investors.
富人对金钱的理解，有哪些是大多数人不明白的？
What do rich people understand about money that most people don't?
富人对金钱的理解？
What do rich people?
嗯，我经常跟我孩子们说，特别是跟我妻子说。
Well, I always say something to my kids and especially to my wife.
我说，你之所以富有，是因为你拥有钱，而不是因为你花钱。
And I say, you know, you are wealthy because you have money, not because you spend it.
所以当你花钱的时候，钱就离开了你。
So when you spend it, it leaves you.
它就消失了。
It goes away.
所以我觉得这就是富人明白的道理，而你在社交媒体上看到的那些过度消费、私人飞机等等，恰恰相反。
So I think that that is something that wealthy people understand that, you know, you see in all the social media all this excessive spending and, you know, jets and this and that.
实际上，有钱人会更谨慎、更务实一些。
And the reality is that wealthy people are a little more careful and more practical.
如果能用合理的方式、花一小部分成本就办成事，他们就会这么做。
You know, if you can do something in a reasonable way that's a fraction of the cost, you do it.
而那些过度挥霍的人……
And the people who are excessive...
听着，我……
I mean, look, I...
我们住在格林尼治。
You know, we lived in in Greenwich.
那里……
It's...
什么样的人都有。
You know, you have all sorts.
有那些非常老派的美国老钱家族，他们的祖先早在1630年或1640年就登陆格林尼治了，他们住在非常朴素的房子里，却拥有大片土地，生活得很节俭。
You have the very, you know, old old money Americans who are descended from the people who landed in Greenwich in sixteen thirty or '40, and, you know, they live in very modest homes and, you know, yet they own big tracts of land in in Greenwich, and they live modestly.
然后还有一些新贵，十年前刚赚到钱，他们就去买四万平方英尺的房子，还有马什么的。
And then you have people who are, you know, nouveau, who've just made money ten years ago, and they go out and they buy the 40,000 square foot house with the horses and this and that.
所以我觉得平衡就是平衡，要有眼光，你得小心点，有点限度，你懂的。
And so I think balance is, you know, balance and perspective, and you have to be a little careful and have some limits, you know.
丹·塔皮耶罗有Instagram吗？
Is Dan Tapiero on Instagram?
因为你提到了社交媒体，还有那些展示自己生活的人。
Because you mentioned social media and all these people showing their lives.
我的女儿们在我刚用Instagram的时候就禁止我用了。
My daughters banned me from Instagram when it came out.
她们说，爸爸，你不能有Instagram账号。
They're like, daddy, you you can't have an Insta account.
所以我没有Instagram。
And so I I don't have Instagram.
为什么？
Why?
我觉得他们只是不想让我看到他们的帖子，因为他们当时还在高中，可能正在派对上发帖，最不希望的就是被我看到，然后我还会抱怨。
I think they they just didn't want me to see their posts because they were in high school, and they're posting at parties maybe, and, you know, the last thing they want is for me to see them, whatever it is, and then I complain.
我妻子也支持这一点，所以我没有Instagram。
And my wife supported that as well, so I have no Instagram.
我只有X（推特），因为区块链加密社区在某种程度上要求我这么做。
I have X only because the blockchain crypto community was in a way demanding.
在2019年我和拉胡尔·鲍威尔做完那次关于比特币的采访后，几周内，他们说收到了很多想联系我的请求。
And after I did that interview with Rahul Powell in 2019 about Bitcoin, within a few weeks, they said they had all of these requests to get in touch with me.
所以我不得不设立一个X账户，这样他们才能联系到我。
And I had to set up an x account so that they could do that.
而且我……
And I...
倒不是说需要……
Not that I need...
我并不需要那么多关注，但后来我真的很喜欢X。
Didn't need all of the attention, but then I really like x.
我经常使用X，也就是推特。
I mean, I I use x Twitter extensively.
我的意思是，无论是新闻推送，还是了解各种事情，不仅仅是加密货币或宏观经济。
I mean, as for news feeds, for, you know, getting a read on, you know, all sorts of things, not just, you know, crypto or macro.
它……
It's...
它太棒了。
I mean, it's fantastic.
那么，什么是
So What are
人们对致富最大的误解是什么？
the biggest myths people have about getting rich?
这不会是一个关于致富的播客。
This isn't gonna be a getting rich podcast.
它说了什么？再说一遍？
What did it say it again?
关于致富最大的误区是什么……
What are the biggest myths that...
嗯，显然，最基本的一个误区就是大家都以为钱能解决一切问题，但实际上它只能解决一部分问题。
Well, obviously, the most basic one is that everyone thinks it will solve everything, and it solves some things.
如今你失去了隐私，因为互联网上的一切都太透明了。
You know, you lose your privacy today because everything is so transparent on the Internet.
现在你只要把任何人的名字输入到……
Now you just put anyone's name into the...
输入到聊天机器人或者任何AI里，它就能查出你的一切。
Into chat or into any of the AIs and, like, it will find out everything about you.
除非你已经85岁了，完全没有留下任何数字足迹。
I mean, unless you're 85 years old and you have no, you know, you have no footprint at all.
所以我认为误区在于，人们以为钱能解决问题。
So I think, you know, the myth is, you know, that it solves things.
它确实能解决一些问题，但同时也带来了很多责任。
It solves some things, but it also brings with it, you know, a lot of responsibility.
而且随着年龄增长，这种情况会更明显。
You know, and as you get older, it's even more so.
比如说，如果你……
Like, if you...
如果你30岁，继承了钱或者自己赚了钱，你仍然有自己的隐私。
If you're 30 years old and you've inherited money or you've made it, you still have your privacy.
到了55岁、60岁，你的社交圈已经相当大了。
At 55, at 60, you have a pretty big network.
你一生中做了很多事，然后你试着简化一下生活。
You've done many things in your life, and you you try to simplify a little bit.
所以你有了一些舒适感，但同时也得处理很多外部的事情。
And so you have some of those comforts, but then you also have, you know, a lot of a lot of external things to deal with.
有什么建议听起来不错，但实际上却让人一直贫穷？
What's an advice that sounds good but actually keeps people poor?
这个问题问得好。
That's a good question.
嗯，我知道这可能是你播客的一个主题……
Well, I know this is probably a theme of your pod...
而且可能有很多主题，比如朝九晚五的工作。
And probably many themes, as that, oh, you know, the nine to five job.
我觉得，我觉得你必须和风险建立一种关系。
I I think I think you have to develop a relationship with risk.
对吧？
Okay?
所以我能说的最清楚的一点就是，如果你不冒任何风险，我保证你不会赚到钱，也不会成功。
So the clearest thing I can say is that if you don't take any risk, guarantee you're not going to make money or be successful.
所以你必须适应生活在灰色地带，带着不确定性。
So you have to be comfortable living a little bit in the gray with uncertainty.
我不是说你永远不应该违法，因为人生太短了，但你在下注、投资、做研究的时候，必须感到不舒服。
I'm not saying you should never break the law because life is too short for that, but you have to feel uncomfortable when you make a bet, when you're making an investment, when you're doing the research.
必须有一种你可能会错的感觉。
There has to be a sense that you could be wrong.
所以我觉得这就是人们感到困难的地方。
And so I think that that's where, you know, people have difficulty.
人们想要安全感。
People wanna feel secure.
他们想要得到确认。
They wanna have confirmation.
他们希望朋友夸他们聪明。
They wanna have their friends telling them they're smart.
所以你必须适应做一个局外人，在鸡尾酒会上，提出你的想法，然后所有人都说，这家伙疯了。
So you have to be comfortable being an outsider, being at the cocktail party, having your idea, and everyone telling you, you know, oh, that guy's nuts.
就像我刚开始做实物黄金生意GBI的时候。
It was like when I started my physical gold business, GBI.
人们，我的意思是，根本不感兴趣。
People were, I mean, not interested.
他们不在乎。
They didn't care.
就像，你为什么要这么做？
Like, why are you doing this?
有人想要这个吗？
Does anyone want this?
而今天，几乎……
And today, almost...
我想我们某个时候资产管理规模超过了100亿。
I think at some point we were over 10,000,000,000 in AUM.
它是银行系统之外第三大的实物黄金保管者。
It's the third largest vaulter of physical gold outside of the banking system.
而且它很多年都没什么动静。
And it did nothing for many years.
它当时……
You know, it was...
资产管理规模达到了一定水平。
Had a certain amount of AUM.
那时候挺好的。
It was good.
一直在稳步发展。
It was moving along.
我的联合创始人兼合伙人，现在是CEO，他总跟我讲遇到的困难。
My cofounder and partner who's now the CEO, you know, is always telling me the struggles.
然后，当然，黄金从2500涨到5000，眨眼之间，业务就完全变好了。
And then, of course, gold goes from 2,500 to 5,000 in in a nanosecond, and the business is, you know, completely changed in a good way.
所以重点是，很多年里，在格林尼治，人们看着我就像我是个怪人，就因为我那套黄金观点。
So the point is is that I had many years of people looking at me like I was a weirdo in Greenwich with my gold, you know, my gold view.
当然，比特币、加密货币和区块链的情况更糟。
And it's, of course, much worse even with Bitcoin and crypto and blockchain.
人们……
People are...
他们不明白我们在做什么。
You know, they they don't understand what we're doing.
他们觉得这很奇怪。
They think it's weird.
关键是，你必须适应那种持续的不安全感，别人说你偏离正轨等等，这是你最终取得成功的唯一途径。
And the point is you have to feel comfortable that that is the only way you will eventually have success, that you have that constant insecurity, people telling you, you know, that you're, you know, you're off base, etcetera.
所以……
So...
从定义上讲，你总是在做那些不流行的事情。
By definition, you're always doing the thing that's not cool.
因为如果你在正确的时间做，那正是它不流行的时候。
Because if you're doing it at the right time, it's when it's not cool.
所以你会……
And so you will...
如果你在寻求外部的认可，那么创业可能是你最不应该做的事情，因为如果你做对了，投入了时间和金钱，人们永远不会对你感兴趣，因为你是在人们不感兴趣的时候做的，而这正是做这件事的正确时机。
If you're looking for external validation, probably building a business is the last thing you want to do because if you're doing it right, investing your time and your money, well, people will never be interested at you because you're doing it at a time where people are not interested, which is the right time to do it.
没错。
Correct.
这让这个行业在某些方面几乎不可能，尤其是在筹集资金的时候。
Which makes the business nearly impossible in some ways, especially when you're raising capital.
投资者通常会在最糟糕的时候给你钱，也就是当他们读到相关消息并产生错失恐惧症的时候。
The investors want to give you the money at the single worst time usually, you know, when they're reading about it and they have FOMO.
错失恐惧症是财富的破坏者。
FOMO is the the wrecker of of wealth.
我在我们管理的五个基金中看到了这一点，也就是50T基金。
I see it in the five funds that we have, the 50T Funds.
我们最成功的基金，第四号基金，不幸的是，也是我们筹集资金最少的基金，我是在2023年和2024年筹集这笔资金的，过程非常艰难。
Our most successful fund, fund four, also happens to be, unfortunately, our smallest fund in terms of capital raised, and I raised that capital in 2023 and '24, And it was very difficult.
前三个基金已经取得了成功，但随后熊市来了。
We'd had success with the first three, but then the bear market hits.
我们的基金表现相对不错。
Our funds held in relatively well.
当然，最大跌幅大约在10%到15%之间。
Certainly, the max drawdown was like 10 to 15%.
比特币跌了80%。
Bitcoin was down 80.
以太坊也跌了很多。
You know, Eth was down a lot.
那是在22年和23年。
This was in '22 and '23.
我们已经做了投资，我当时想，好吧。
And we'd made our investments, and I thought, okay.
现在是真正大展身手的时候了。
Now is the time to really go big.
我要筹集大量资金。
I'm gonna raise a huge amount of capital.
我们要在熊市阶段部署这些资金。
We're gonna deploy it into the bear phase.
即使我有这样的业绩记录，这仍然非常困难。
And it was very hard even with my track record.
在投资界摸爬滚打了三十五年，管理的资产已经超过十亿美元了。
You know, thirty five years in the investing world, already had over a billion dollars of AUM.
但人们，甚至是我自己的投资者，那些认识我三十年的人，都会说，丹，我们心里没底。
And people, even my own investors, people who'd known me for thirty years were like, Dan, we don't know.
FTX这件事真的很糟糕。
This FTX thing is really bad.
这是不是……
Is this...
而且有一些非常成功、非常知名的投资者对我说，这个领域还会复苏吗？
And I had very, very successful, well known investors say to me, well, you know, is the space going to come back?
我当时就想，还会复苏吗？
And I was like, is it gonna come back?
这还没真正开始呢。
It hasn't even started.
你懂吗？
You know?
它会回来吗？
Is it gonna come back?
所以那个基金的收益率已经超过了250%，而且我已经返还了30%的承诺资本。
So, you know, that fund for it, you know, is up over 250% gross, and I've already returned 30% of the committed capital.
那是一个十年期的基金。
That's a ten year life fund.
在基金运作的十八个月里，我们就有了一些大的成功。
Eighteen months into the life, we had some big hits.
我们有Figure，去年IPO了。
We had Figure, you know, which IPO ed last year.
我们有Derabit，被Coinbase收购了。
We had Derabit, which got bought by Coinbase.
想象一下，你进入一个十年期的基金，已经收回了30%的资本。
So imagine you're going into a ten year life fund, and you got 30% of your capital back.
这……
It's...
我们属于私募股权基金中顶尖的千分之一或百分之一。
We're top one tenth of 1% or top 1% of private equity funds.
但那是……
But that's...
这非常艰难。
It was very hard.
我的重点是筹集资金、说服别人，而那就是我。
My point was to raise money to convince people, and that was me.
我会认为，一个更年轻、经验更少、没有基金背景的人，这几乎是不可能的。
I would have thought that someone younger with less experience with no fund, it's virtually impossible.
那你怎么办？
So what do you do?
对，是的。
You Yeah.
在大家有FOMO（错失恐惧）的时候筹集资金，但你不投资那些钱。
Raise when there is FOMO, but you don't invest that money.
你试着这么做。
You try to do that.
对。
Correct.
投资者不会施压说，
There is no pressure from the investor saying,
我要你
I want you to
把我的宝贵资金搞砸。
lose my precious money.
是有压力的。
There is pressure.
时机不对。
The wrong time.
有……
There is...
对。
Correct.
确实有压力，而且你必须……
There is pressure, and you have to, you know, you...
只要你坚持自己的流程和纪律，你在投资时……
As long as you stay within your process and your discipline, you invest at a certain...
我们会加一定的倍数。
We add a certain multiple.
我们通常不会投资超过营收的五到十倍。
We don't really invest at more than five to 10 times revenue.
我们就直接告诉投资者这一点。
We just tell that to the investor.
但在2022年，有投资者跟我说，丹，你必须投资。
But in '22, I had investors telling me, Dan, you have to invest.
我自己的人，你必须投资FTX。
My own people, you have to invest in FTX.
这是前沿领域。
It's the leading edge.
他是最聪明的人。
He's the smartest guy.
我和他一起做过几次演讲，当时就发现了一些危险信号。
And I did a few talks with him, and, you know, there were some red flags.
我并不认为他是完全骗人的，但我绝不会以50倍营收的估值去投资。
I didn't think he was a complete fraud, but I was never gonna invest it, you know, 50 times revenue.
而且我们当时投资的是Derabit，我买入Derabit时是净利润的6到7倍，而那边是50倍营收什么的。
And we, at the time, were investing at Derabit, and I was buying Derabit at six to seven times of net profit, net profit versus 50 times revenue or whatever it was.
所以我可以向有限合伙人解释，我们……
So I could make the excuse to the LP that we...
这超出了我们的估值范围。
You know, this is outside of our valuation range.
我觉得这才是关键，如果你有一套流程，并且花了很多时间在上面，你就能有理有据地说明为什么不做某件事，过去六年我们拒绝了400多笔交易。
I think that that's really the key, that if you have a process, you spend a lot of time on it, and you can argue for why you're not doing something, and we've passed on over 400 deals in the last six years.
然后他们就不会再来打扰你了。
Then they leave you alone.
但奇怪的是，有几个有限合伙人绕过我，直接投资了FTX。
But oddly enough, you know, I had several LPs that went around me and invested directly into FTX.
所以这就是我说的。
So that's what I said.
我说，听着。
I said, look.
你可以这么做，但我们更喜欢Dare一点。
You can do it, but we like Dare a bit better.
你明白吗？
You know?
当时听起来挺无聊的，但……
Which sounded boring at the time, but...
然后就是
And then been
其实我觉得那挺刺激的。
doing I thought it was very exciting, actually.
但是……
But...
和……相比，和……相比。
Compared to Compared.
对。
Correct.
嗯，他们现在刚在Netflix上出了关于整个FTX事件的剧集。
Well, they just released the Netflix series now about the whole FTX saga.
哦，那简直看不下去。
Oh, it's unbearable.
我根本没法看那个。
I couldn't possibly watch that.
他们应该拍关于Deribit的Netflix剧集，而不是FTX的，不过算了。
They should do the Netflix series about Deribit, not FTX, but Yeah.
但就像你说的，这没那么吸引人。
But as you said It's less sexy.
对。
Correct.
不过……
Even though...
想象一下，一家公司垄断比特币和以太坊期权交易长达六七年。
I mean, imagine a company for six, seven years has a monopoly on Bitcoin and Eth options trading.
那太了不起了。
That's phenomenal.
多么惊人的商业故事啊。
Like, what an incredible business story.
两个来自阿姆斯特丹的交易员，在阿姆斯特丹交易所交易期权，他们是怎么想出这个主意的。
How do two guys from Amsterdam who are trading options on the Amsterdam exchange come up with this idea.
这家公司很多年规模都很小。
The business was very small for many years.
他们在市场低迷期坚持了下来。
They persisted through bear phases.
这位是约翰·詹森。
This is John Jensen.
最终把公司卖给了Coinbase，这是历史上最大的一笔并购交易。
And, you know, end up selling to Coinbase in the largest m and a transaction in the history of the market.
所以，这让我很兴奋，但……
So, like, that's exciting to me, but, you know, it's...
就是没什么戏剧性。
There's no there's no drama.
没有那种一群人在房子里吸毒、孩子发疯的场面。
There's no drugs and kids in a house together going crazy.
对。
No.
但波动性很大。
There's lots of volatility.
比如说，你可以……
Like, you could...
如果你采访约翰，他其实不太爱说话，但如果你公开地，但如果你采访他，他会告诉你所有那些熊市阶段、焦虑，还有……
If you interview John, and he doesn't he doesn't really talk much, but if you, you know, publicly, but if you interviewed him, he would tell you through all the bear phases, the angst, and the...
想象一下，比特币单日暴跌50%，而你还有一个庞大的期权业务。
You know, imagine living through a 50% single day Bitcoin drop, and you have a massive options business.
但他们非常熟练，决定把公司卖给Coinbase。
But they were very skilled, and they decided to sell to Coinbase.
所以那对我们来说是个巨大的成功。
So, you know, that was a a big hit for us.
在大多数交易平台上，加密货币在一个应用里，股票在另一个应用里，而黄金和石油这样的商品又在完全不同的地方。
On most trading platforms, crypto lives in one app, stocks in another, and commodities such as gold and oil somewhere completely different.
Variational把永续合约放在所有这些资产上。
Variational puts perps on all of it.
加密货币、股票、大宗商品、外汇，甚至IPO前的公司，都在一个账户里，所有市场、任何规模，交易费用都为零。
Crypto, equities, commodities, FX, and even pre IPO names in one single account with zero trading fees on every market at any size.
访问 variational.io，看看为什么 Variational 迅速成为最大的链上交易平台之一。
Visit variational.io to see why Variational has quickly become one of the largest on chain trading platforms.
非常感谢我在 Bitwise Asset Management 的朋友们支持今天的对话。
Big thanks to my friends at Bitwise Asset Management for backing today's conversation.
Bitwise 是一家全球加密资产管理公司，拥有 110 亿美元的客户资产和超过 70 种加密解决方案。
Bitwise is a global crypto asset manager with $11,000,000,000 in client assets and more than 70 crypto solutions.
这包括 ETF、指数基金、SMA、定制期权策略、质押、保险库等等。
That includes ETFs, index funds, SMAs, custom option strategies, staking, vaults, and more.
无论你想如何投资加密货币，Bitwise 的专家都能满足你的需求。
However you want to invest in crypto, the experts at Bitwise have you covered.
如今人们在优化什么，而他们不应该优化？
What are people optimizing for today that they shouldn't be?
你是什么意思？
What do you mean?
在我们这个领域？
In our space?
或者你是什么意思？
Or what do mean
一般来说，在生活中。
In general, in life.
你是指什么？
What do you
生活。
life.
嗯，他们在优化什么？
Well, what are they optimizing for?
我不知道有多少。
I don't know that many.
比如，我很难代表大众说话。
I mean, like, it's hard for me to speak to the general population.
我没有Instagram。
I don't have Instagram.
所以，他们需要一个空间。
So Well, they need a space.
在这个空间里，他们优化的是什么？
In the space, what are they optimizing for?
他们不应该这样。
That they shouldn't be
嗯，很明显是追求快速收益，我不怪他们。
Well, it's obviously the quick the quick gain, and I don't fault them.
年轻人想快速做出东西，但现实是，十年并不长。
Young people wanna make things very quickly, but the reality is, like, ten years is not very long.
如果你才26岁……
And, you know, if you're 26 years old...
听着。
Look.
我在二十多岁时也犯过类似的错误，试图优化一些短期的东西。
I made a very similar mistake in my twenties to try to optimize for something that was a little short short term.
我觉得不到三十岁，人很容易犯错，而这种错误很大程度上是因为你什么都想立刻得到。
I think until you're 30, you're very prone to error, and that largely drives the error that you you want it all now.
这种心态几乎注定会失败。
That feeling is almost a guarantee of failure.
比如，一旦你有这种感觉，那就注定会失败。
Like, you start feeling, it's a guarantee.
但那是
But That's
你学到的。
what you learn.
很多人会说，哎呀，那些持有比特币的人只是运气好。
The the the value almost people said, well, oh, you know, holding Bitcoin, you know, those people got lucky.
那些在一百美元、一千美元时买入比特币的人。
The people who bought Bitcoin at a $100, at a thousand dollars.
而我会说，不是的。
And I would say, no.
他们不是运气好。
They they didn't get lucky.
他们是靠耐心赚到的。
They were paid for their patience.
那种能持有比特币十年的耐心，是一种技能，也是一种世界会奖励的性格特质。
And that patience to hold Bitcoin for ten years is a skill and the character trait that the world rewards.
而且很难理解，世界到底奖励什么？
And it's very hard to understand, like, what is the world reward?
它奖励是因为这种特质极其罕见。
And it rewards it because it's extremely rare.
这整个游戏基本上就是，你要寻找那些稀有又有价值的东西。
And that's what this whole game basically comes down to, is you're looking for things that are rare that have value.
然后你等待那个价值实现，当你在报纸上看到它的时候，就是该卖掉的时候了。
And you wait until that value is realized, and then when you read about it in the newspaper, it's time to sell.
所以你提到耐心是其中一个重要问题。
So you mentioned patience is one of the big issues.
除了耐心，你还见过哪些在二十多岁和三十多岁时犯下的代价高昂的错误？
What's what's one other or two other mistakes, expensive mistakes that people make in their twenties and in their thirties that you've seen?
我就说说我自己的经历吧。
I mean, I just talk from my own experiences is that.
但是……
But, you know, I...
你看。
Look.
你本应该承担……
You're supposed to be taking...
我不想说这是过度冒险，但当你年轻的时候，管理金钱或投资时，你应该承担风险，因为你有很多年可以从中恢复。
I don't wanna call it excessive risk, but when you're managing money or making investments when you're young, you're supposed to be taking risk because you have many years to recover from it.
问题是，这种风险，这种失败，有时候人们无法从中恢复。
The problem is that that risk, the failure, sometimes people don't recover from.
它比你想象的要痛苦得多。
It's it's a lot more painful than you think.
你有一个想法。
You know, you have an idea.
比如，有年轻的分析师来为我工作，然后他们跟我说，哦，丹，区块链加密货币的成长股权。
You know, like, have young analysts who come to work for me, and then they they say to me, oh, Dan, growth equity in blockchain crypto.
哦，你在买Ledger和Kraken，还有QuickNote。
Oh, you're buying ledger and Kraken and quick note.
这太无聊了。
This is so boring.
我需要去搞点疯狂的，我要在DeFi里搞点东西，然后YOLO。
I need to go off and go full degen, and I'm going to, you know, launch something in DeFi and YOLO.
你知道吗？
You know?
想法就在那里，他们对此非常兴奋。
And the idea is there, and they're very excited by the idea.
但他们愿意承担风险，这是好的。
But they're willing to take the risk, which is good.
他们从我们这里，从我这里学到了一些投资方面的东西。
They've learned some things about investment from us, from me.
但现实是，他们无法想象损失和失败带来的痛苦，而且这种痛苦会持续一段时间。
But the reality is is they can't imagine, you know, the pain that comes with the loss and failure, and it goes on for a while.
你知道吗？
You know?
你可能会连续多年亏损。
You could lose over multiple years.
所以……
So...
然后你还得从亏损中恢复过来。
And then you have to recover from the losing.
在我三十五年的职业生涯中，我经历过多次亏损，然后不得不从亏损中恢复。
So in my career, you know, thirty five years, I had multiple episodes where I've had loss, and then I had to recover from that loss.
这并不愉快。
It's not pleasant.
我不太希望我的孩子们经历这些。
I mean, I don't particularly want my children to go through it.
我……
I...
这适合我的性格，但我不太推荐别人去做。
You know, it suits my personality, but I don't really recommend it for people.
比如说，我会觉得无聊。
Like, I get I get bored.
我有时候容易觉得无聊，需要不断向前。
I get bored, you know, easily sometimes, and I need to be moving forward.
所以……
So...
你懂吗？
You know?
但我觉得这不是适合所有人的。
But I don't think it's for everybody.
加密货币能实现民主化，这挺好的。
I mean, it's nice that crypto democratizes.
我们现在有数字钱包了。
We have digital wallets now.
阿根廷的人能摆脱比索，持有比特币或稳定币，这真是太棒了，我觉得这是我们这个世界的主要驱动力。
It's wonderful that people in Argentina can get out of the peso and can own Bitcoin or stables, and I think that's a main driver for us in our world.
但现实是，大多数投机的人都会亏损。
But the reality is is that most people who are speculating will lose.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
所以现在有种说法是，人人都是交易员。
So there's this narrative everyone is a trader now.
每个人都在变成交易员。
Everyone is becoming a trader.
嗯，也许吧，也许不是，但如果每个人都成了交易员，而98%或99%的交易员都亏钱，那也许大家真不该都去当交易员。
Well, maybe, maybe not, but if everyone becomes a trader and 99% or 98% of traders lose money, well, everyone maybe should not become a trader.
嗯，那会是我的建议。
Well, that would be my advice.
很难说服一个30岁的人...
It's hard to dissuade somebody who's 30...
30岁以下的人，情况就是这样。
Under 30 that that's that that's the case.
他们喜欢那种刺激。
They love the action.
他们喜欢价格上涨时的感觉。
They love how it feels when it goes up.
但现实是，当你感觉最好的时候——我在职业生涯中经历过很多次——那就是卖掉一切，或者卖掉一部分的时候。
But the reality is is that when you're feeling best, and I've had this many times in my career, that is the moment to sell everything or sell or sell some.
我认为这是一种人们应该拥有但往往没有的技能。
I think that that's a skill that people should have that that they don't.
他们应该能够放弃一部分自己的仓位。
They should be able to part with some portion of their position.
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他们没法完全兼顾。
They can't completely marry.
这就是为什么这么难，因为一方面你得有极强的信念才能坚持住，但另一方面，你也得能放掉一部分。
That's why it's so difficult because on the one hand you have to have insane conviction to hold, but on the other hand, you have to also be able to release some portion.
这可能是最难的部分。
Probably the hardest part.
是最难的。
The hardest.
我以前总有一句……
I always had a sell...
我那时候总有一些简短的小格言，首先，从来没有人因为获利而破产。
A say back in my day of all these little pithy sayings that, first of all, no one ever went bankrupt taking a profit.
如果你获利了，理论上你不会破产。
If you take a profit, you theoretically can't go bankrupt.
所以……
So...
而且，你总是会因为卖出而致富。
And then always that, you know, you you get rich because in the selling.
比如，如果你对自己的做法有信心，那么在情况不好的时候买入会更容易。
Like, it's easier to buy when things are bad if you have conviction in what you're doing.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
好的。
Okay.
但那时你会感到胜利。
But then you're feeling victory.
某样东西涨了五倍，你会想，我现在是个天才。
Something's up five x, and you're like, now I'm a genius.
你的自我价值感与你的胜利挂钩。
And your sense of self worth is tied to the victory that you have.
所以你必须把自己从中抽离出来，这需要年复一年的时间。
And so you have to remove yourself from that, and that takes years and years and years.
我花了十五年时间，从23岁到38岁，才完全确信自己是我自己世界的指挥官。
I mean, it it it took me fifteen years before I had complete confidence that I was a commander of my universe from '23 till '38.
在那段时间里，我为朱利安·罗伯逊、史蒂夫·科恩和斯坦·德鲁肯米勒工作。
And in that time, I worked for Julian Robertson and Steve Cohen and Stan Druckenmiller.
所以我有那些可以学习的导师，但我还是花了十五年。
So I had those guys that I learned from, and it still took me fifteen years.
所以我只能说，祝你好运了。
So I'm just like, good luck out there.
然后我总是说，而且我上次我们谈话时可能也说过，加密货币是世界上赚钱最容易的地方。
And then I always say, and I probably said it the last time we spoke, crypto is the easiest place in the world to make money.
但也是最难守住钱的地方。
It's just the most impossible to hold on to it.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
那就是
That's
因为最大的瘾，尤其是对男人来说，就是那种“我跟你说过吧”的快感，对吧？
Because the biggest drug, especially for men, is like the I told you so part, right?
当你说对了，你会得到那种疯狂的 dopamine。
When you're right, you have like this crazy dopamine.
甚至不是钱的问题，而是那种“我说对了”的感觉。
It's not even the money, it's like being right.
然后如果你等了那么久，受了那么多苦，终于对了，那你现在为什么要卖呢？
And then if you're finally right after waiting so long and suffering so much, why would you sell now?
这完全说不通。
It makes no sense.
对，你必须完全把自己从……中抽离出来。
Yeah, you have to completely remove yourself from...
这就是为什么情绪化的人绝对是最差的投资者和交易者。
And that's why people who are very emotional are absolutely the worst investors and traders.
实际上，他们是极佳的反向指标。
In fact, they're fantastic contrary indicators.
这些年来，我手下有些人跟我工作过一段时间，我把他们当作反向信号来用。因为当他们兴奋起来的时候，我就知道行情到头了。
I've had over the years people who worked for me for periods of time who I used as counter signals because when they were getting excited, I knew it was over.
而他们快要绝望到想自杀的时候，我就知道那是底部了。
And when they were about to shoot themselves, I knew it was the bottom.
顺便说一句，很多知名的对冲基金经理，他们运营的规模更大，其中一些我以前的老上司，也有同样的直觉。
By the way, many of the well known hedge fund managers who have larger operations, some of the guys I used to work for, have that same instinct.
他们会雇一些人，其中一个测试就是看你情绪化到什么程度。
They hire some people, and one of the tests is how emotional are you?
然后他们会说，你被雇是因为你情绪化，这样我就能反向交易。不，
And they're like, you are hired because you're emotional, so I can countertrade No,
但这是可以
but it's can go
在推特上，然后你会看到这些人总是在错误的时刻极度悲观，又在错误的时刻极度乐观，你根本不需要雇人来干这个。
on Twitter and then you'll see all these people are extremely bearish at the wrong moment and extremely bullish at the wrong moment, and you don't need to hire people for that.
我不太清楚现在具体是怎么运作的，毕竟现在都是量化模型和算法，而我二三十年前所在的那个对冲基金行业，如今已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。
I don't know how it works exactly today with all the quants and algos, and, you know, the hedge fund business that I was in, you know, twenty, thirty years ago is dramatically changed today.
但对于那些年长的、确实成功的交易者来说，他们肯定是在利用别人的情绪状态来交易。
But for the, you know, older, certainly successful traders, they definitely trade other people's emotional conditions.
我有个好例子给你。
I have a good one for you.
你只要去我们播客的评论区看看，就能看到那些评论有多糟糕。
You can just go in the comment section of our podcast and you can see how bad the comments are.
这真是市场的一个绝佳指标。
This is an amazing indicator for the market or the market.
那现在它说明了什么？
So what is it saying now?
嗯，现在还不算太糟，但也不算太好。
Well, now it's not too bad, but it's not great either.
好的。
Okay.
之前非常糟糕。
Was extremely terrible.
嗯，几个月前我跟你做那次访谈的时候，正是最低谷的时候。
Well, when I did the the interview with you months ago, it was the bottom.
那时候真的太糟了。
It was so bad.
确实很糟糕。
It was terrible.
超级糟糕。
It was super bad.
那为什么那个视频会有那么多浏览量呢？
So why did that video get so many views?
他们是不是……
Were they...
是不是我给了他们希望和坚持的动力？
Was I giving them hope and inspiration to hold on?
我觉得吧，这既是因为你有名气，再加上我们配的那张漂亮的图片。
Well, I think I think it's a combination of you being known plus this beautiful picture that we put.
那是我拍过的最丑的照片了。
That was the worst picture I've ever had.
它只在标题里，然后所有这些加在一起，就成了一个配方。
It's only in the title, and then all of it together was a recipe The
最丑的照片。
worst picture.
大家都震惊了。
People were in shock.
财富积累中，技巧占多少，耐心又占多少？
How much of wealth building is skill, and how much is patience?
我觉得它们其实是一回事，因为耐心本身就是一种可以习得的技巧。
Well, I mean, I think they're one and the same thing, because patience is a learned skill.
所以你必须得……
So, you know, you have to be...
听着，你必须要有分析能力，而且就像我之前说的，你得适应在不确定的世界里运作。
You know, look, you have to be analytical, and you have to be comfortable, as I said before, operating in the world of uncertainty.
你真的得喜欢风险。
You have to really like risk.
你得，你得感到自在。
You have to you have to feel comfortable.
然后你需要把这一切放到一边，从远处观察，这样你自己的情绪就不会掺和进去。
And then you need to take all of that and put it to the side and observe it from a distance so that your own emotional components is not involved with that.
所以整个过程就是一种技能，只要你愿意让自己经历多年的波动、起起伏伏和考验磨难，你就能学会。
And so that whole thing is just a skill that you learn if you're willing to put yourself through many years of volatility and ups and downs and trials and tribulations.
再说一次，我真的觉得这不适合大多数人。
Again, I just don't think it's it's for most people.
我觉得你可以找一个好的经理，或者找几个人……
I think, you know, you find a great manager or you have a few people and...
他们真的以此为职业，然后你让他们……
Who really do this for a living, and and you let them...
你保留一部分自己来管理，比如10%、15%。
You know, you keep some portion that you maybe do for yourself, 10, 15%.
但我总是说，这就像……
But, you know, I always say this is a...
我们的世界是给专业人士的。
Our world is for professionals.
你会自己给自己做牙科手术，还是去找牙医？
Would you go and do dentistry on yourself, or would you go to the dentist?
我可不会给自己做牙科手术，我……
You know, I'm not doing dentistry for myself and I...
对自己。
On myself.
或者我……
Or, you know, I...
而且我确实经常在想，投资界的那些外行人根本不知道自己有多少不懂的地方，这才是真正的问题。
And I I do think I do think about that a lot that the people who are civilians in the investment world don't realize how much they don't know, and that's really the problem.
而我知道我对牙科有多少不懂。
Whereas I know how much I don't know about dentistry.
这很明显。
It's obvious.
我不会自己拔牙。
I'm not going to extract my own tooth.
我会去找专业人士。
I'll go to a professional.
所以我觉得道理是一样的，但人们不会这样想。
So I feel it's a similar concept, but people don't think about it that way.
嗯，有一种情况是……
Well, there is what people...
这些人不知道自己不知道什么，而那些知道的人却很确定。
These people not realizing what they don't know, and then these people knowing for sure.
他们只会说不是这样，对。
And they're just saying that it's not what Yeah.
真正害你的不是你不知道的东西。
It's not what you don't know that kills you.
真正害你的，是你确信不疑但其实是错的事情。
It's what you know for sure that ain't so.
确实。
That's true.
确实，但我不太完全相信这一点，因为当你投入所有努力去做投资时，总得有点把握，不是说你百分百确定，而是你有极高的信心。
That's true, but I don't quite believe that, though, because, you know, there has to be some sense when you're making an investment after all your work, not that you know it for sure, but that you have extremely high conviction.
我的投资并不怎么分散。
I'm not I'm not very diversified in my, you know, exposure.
所以我需要几乎确定才行，我想这就是我要说的保留意见。
So I need to know almost for sure, I guess, is what the caveat I would I would say is.
或者我得有非常高的信心。
Or I'd have to have a very high conviction.
不过，对，这确实是个……
But, yeah, that's a...
这是个老说法了，那句。
That's an old that's an old phrase, that one.
你提到了耐心，也提到了利润和卖出才是关键。
You mentioned patience, and you mentioned that the rich is in the profit and selling.
但如果人们常常过早卖出赢家，那为什么大家总是这么做呢？
But if people often sell their winners too early, why do people constantly sell their winners too early?
你之前已经给出答案了。
Well, I mean, you gave the answer before.
他们经历了痛苦和煎熬，然后股票终于抬头了，他们就说，谢天谢地。
They've sat through pain and anguish, and then it pops its head up, and they say, Oh, thank goodness.
不用再受苦了，于是他们就退出了。
I don't have to suffer any more pain than they exit.
这是很常见的理解。
That's very commonly understood.
我觉得如果你有计划，事情会容易得多。
I think it's a lot easier if you have a plan.
所以你必须有一个流程和计划，而且必须事先明确。
So you have to have a process and a plan, and it has to be clear beforehand.
比如说，你以1美元买入某样东西。
So let's say you're buying something at $1.
一开始的计划是，价值在什么程度上实现，让你觉得可以舒服地退出。
The plan in the beginning is where does the value get realized to the degree that you're you're now comfortable exiting it.
很多事情会变化，但你可以说，我以1美元买入，我冒1美元的风险，我要赚到5美元。
Now lots of things change, but you can say, oh, I'm buying it at one, I'm going to risk one, and I'm going to make five.
当它到5美元时，就到了。
And when it gets to five, it's there.
如果你不拿一些利润，我总是说，那是对市场之神的亵渎，你会失去一切。
And if you don't take some profit, I always say it's a sin against the market god, and you will lose everything.
如果你有一个计划，并且它实现了，那就是……
If you have a plan and it happens, which is...
要真正做对这件事太难了，如果你不卖，你就会失去……
It's so hard to actually get this right, that if you don't sell, you'll lose...
你最终会失去一切。
You'll end up losing it all.
这就是我的经验，亏损，但亏损是在那笔交易或那项投资上。
I mean, that's been my experience, losing, but losing in that trade or in that investment.
所以基本面在这个过程中是会变化的。
So fundamentals do change along the way.
所以如果从1涨到5，然后你突然发现一些关于这项投资的新情况，也许让你觉得可以涨到10，你就想继续持有。
So if one goes to five and then all of a sudden you find some new things that are new about the investment that maybe make you think you can go to 10, and you wanna hold on.
好的。
Okay.
但到5的时候卖掉一半。
But sell half at five.
你懂吗？
You know?
我……
I...
这只是一个过程。
It's just a process.
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Quick shoutouts to our legendary long term When Shift Happens partners, without whom none of this would be possible.
感谢KAST，我首选的全球货币应用，可以在170多个国家直接使用Apple Pay或实体卡存储、赚取、移动和支出稳定币。
Thank you to KAST, my go to global money app to store, earn, move and spend stablecoins across 170 plus countries directly with Apple Pay or a physical card.
此外，我还可以通过KAST虚拟账户以美元和欧元收款。
On top of that, I can also get paid in USD and Euro with my KAST virtual account.
使用我的促销代码SHIFT和我下方的链接，即可获得会员10%的折扣，每次刷卡消费可获得高达3%的即时美元现金回馈，推荐朋友还可获得最高250美元的现金奖励。
Use my promo code SHIFT and my link below to get 10% off your membership, earn up to 3% instant USD cashback on every card spend and get up to $250 in cash for referring your friends.
没有银行，没有国界，只有随你而动的货币和稳定的现金奖励。
No banks, no borders, just money that moves with you with stable cash rewards.
这是一个加密货币播客。
This is a crypto podcast.
让我们来谈谈加密货币投资。
Let's talk about crypto investing.
我们处于伟大的加密货币财富周期的哪个阶段？
Where are we in the great crypto wealth cycle?
你一开始就给了我们一个提示。
You gave us a hint in the beginning.
关于2023年、2024年，你说，各位，这才刚刚开始。
I mean, about 2023, 2024, and you're saying, guys, this has barely started.
那现在呢，2026年？
What about now, 2026?
所以呢……
So it...
这个领域变化很大，因为我最初在2019年、2020年的观点是，我是个坚定的比特币信徒，现在依然是，但当时我认为我们会有一个广泛的数字资产生态系统发展起来。
The space has has changed a lot because sort of my original view in 2019, 2020 was that I was a hardcore Bitcoiner, which I still am, but that we were going to have this broad digital asset ecosystem grow.
最初的观点，现在正在应验，就是所有关于货币、关于价值和货币的东西都会上区块链。
And the original view, which is now playing out, was that all things of money, all things of value and money were going to be on the blockchain.
我当时不知道会是哪个区块链。
I didn't know which blockchain.
这就是为什么我们的基金投资于数字资产领域公司的股权，也就是那些“卖铲子”的公司。
This is why our funds invest in the equity of the companies in the digital asset world, the picks and shovels.
因为即使在2019、2020年，当我制定计划并形成观点时，我也不知道哪些区块链会在十年内成功，而且有些区块链的特定用途当时还没被发现，甚至还没被发明出来。
Because even in 2019, 2020, when I laid out the process and I had my view, I had no idea which blockchains were going to be successful, like, over a ten year period, and that there were going to be certain blockchains with certain use cases that hadn't even been found, hadn't even been invented yet.
所以这个观点基本上意味着，像稳定币、现金这样的流动性资产会首先上链，这也是我们早期投资Circle的原因之一。
And so the view basically implied that liquid things such as stablecoins, cash, would come on chain first, and that was one of our early investments in Circle.
2020年的时候，稳定币业务基本上还不存在。
The the stablecoin business, you know, in 2020 basically didn't even exist.
然后幸运的是，在2023年熊市期间，我们以非常低的价格，基本上是营收的三到四倍，买到了一批Circle的股票，这简直不算什么。
And then we were fortunate in 2023 during the bear market to pick up a nice block of stock of of Circle at a very low value at basically three, four times revenue, which is which is nothing.
是因为USDC脱钩吗？
Because of the USDCDPEG?
不是。
No.
这个……
It...
不是。
No.
因为当时一切都跌了，有个卖家急需资金，他手里有一些Circle的股票，那就是我给他的报价。
Because everything went down, and there was a seller that needed liquidity, and he had some Circle stock, and that was the price that I bid him.
你明白吗？
You know?
但总的来说，现在我们有现实世界资产（RWA）了。
But the the point broadly is that now we have RWAs.
我们有预测市场。
We have, you know, prediction markets.
现在我们有各种永续合约。
We've got all of these perps now.
Hype取得了巨大的成功。
Hype is fantastic success.
而且关于数字资产世界价值扩大的观点，再说一遍，互联网是思想和信息的数字化，而区块链和比特币是金钱和价值的数字化。
And the view about the broadening value of the digital asset world, again, the Internet was the digitization of ideas and information, and blockchain and Bitcoin is the digitization of money and value.
所以现在这方面进展巨大，但两年前根本不存在。
So that is making huge progress now, but didn't even exist two years ago.
我刚刚在亚洲这里的数字资产峰会上做了一个关于下一阶段的演讲。
And I just gave a talk now at the digital asset summit here in Asia about the next stage.
所以对我来说，我们现在正处于流动资产数字化的第一阶段。
So for me, we're in the first inning of the digitization of liquid assets.
这包括国债和利率，然后现在有了一些大宗商品，比如石油、黄金，以及所有这些资产的永续合约交易。
That's the treasuries and interest rates, and then now you have some commodities, oil, gold, and the trading, the perps trading on all those things.
但最终的圣杯，一直以来都是……
But the holy grail form e, and it has been the whole time, has been...
就是非流动资产的代币化。
Is the is the tokenization of illiquid assets.
比如房地产、土地。
Because real estate, land.
这个想法我已经想了二十五年、三十年了。
And I've thought this for twenty five, thirty years.
我和德鲁肯米勒一起创立了一个农业农田房地产投资信托基金，叫AGCOA。
You know, I had this agricultural farmland REIT that I founded with Druckenmiller called AGCOA.
当时我们相信，美国某些地区种植特定作物能升值，于是我们收购了大量土地，成了最大的私人农田持有者。
And that was a belief that land in certain areas of The US that produced certain crops was going to increase in value, and we aggregated, became the largest private holdings of farmland.
这个项目从06年开始，到13年就卖掉了。
This has started in o six, and we sold it in '13.
我的意思是，当时只有四个这样的基金。
My point is there are only four at the time.
只有四个，而且像那样的大规模农田也不多。
There are only four, and there aren't that many large pools of farmland like that.
我一直想，为什么投资者不能接触这类资产呢？
And I always thought to myself, why shouldn't the investor have access to that asset class?
基本上就是四个基金。
There are four basic funds.
就这些了。
That was it.
而在2006年，这可是一个万亿级的资产类别。
And this is a trillion dollar asset class back in 2006.
一万亿美元被冻结了。
$1,000,000,000,000 frozen.
所以我一直在想，非流动性资产的数字化是我们这个领域的圣杯。
So I've always been thinking digitization of illiquid assets is the holy grail for our space.
那时人们才会理解区块链的重要性和价值。
That's when people understand the importance, the value of blockchain.
当然，底层是比特币的代码，而理解比特币可能会更复杂一些。
And, of course, beneath that is the Bitcoin code, and, you know, understanding Bitcoin can be a little more complicated.
有一个理论层面。
There's a theoretical aspect.
就像很多人不理解黄金，它的价值来自很多不同的基本面。
It's like many people don't understand gold, that it's benefits from many different fundamentals.
所以我觉得，正如我们在这次会议上看到的区块链的机构化，人们会理解这一点。
So I think you'll get people, as as we've seen at this conference, you know, the institutionalization of blockchain, they understand that.
所以我认为，流动性资产的数字化会很快发生，而非流动性资产的数字化还没有开始。
And so I think that's going to happen very rapidly of liquid assets, and it hasn't started yet for illiquid assets.
所以，你看，如果我们找到一家收入在5000万到1亿美元的公司，这是我们最低的门槛，而且他们确实在做非流动性资产的代币化，我们就会……
So, look, if we find a company that's making 50 to $100,000,000 in revenue, this sort of our bottom threshold, that is doing something in the tokenization of illiquid assets for real, I mean, we...
我们会投入数亿美元。
We'll put hundreds of millions into that.
至少投资1亿美元，但我还没看到这样的公司。
I mean, at least a 100,000,000 will invest, but I don't see anything yet.
所以重点是，那个世界和比特币价格上涨是两回事。
So the point is is that whole world is separate from number go up, Bitcoin.
我认为比特币在这里可以涨到230万美元。
I think Bitcoin, you know, can go up to $2,300,000 here.
也许长期来看，我认为它可以涨到100万，但那是10倍。
Maybe long term, I think it can go to a million, you know, but that's a 10x.
那些在100或1000美元时买入比特币的人，已经赚了100倍。
People who bought Bitcoin at a 100 or a thousand, they've made a 100 x.
他们从这里不可能再赚100倍了。
They're not going to make a 100 x from here.
所以情况会变。
So it changes.
但还有像 Zcash 这样的东西。
But then you have things like Zcash.
Zcash 在过去十八个月里涨了 25 倍。
Zcash is up 25 times in the last, you know, eighteen months.
那你怎么看 Zcash？
So What your thoughts on Zcash?
你觉得它为什么一直在涨？
Why do you think that's been picking up?
嗯，隐私这个卖点非常重要，而且这一切都是在那些黑客攻击之后开始的。
Well, the privacy narrative is extremely important, and it all kicked off after these hacks.
我还认为，比特币通过 ETF 和 DAT 变得机构化，
And I also think institutionalization of Bitcoin through the ETFs, through the DATs,
这消除了……
removes...
这可能会抹去早期比特币爱好者非常看重的隐私特性。
Potentially removes the privacy aspect that the early Bitcoiners really valued.
所以Barry Silbert是Zcash的坚定支持者，那对双胞胎兄弟也是。
So Barry Silbert is a very big proponent of Zcash, so are the Twins.
还有其他一些比特币的元老级人物，他们觉得……
And there are other people who are OG Bitcoin who felt that...
这些都是公开的信息。
And this is all public.
我说的不是什么新鲜事。
I'm not saying anything that's different.
但他们……
But they...
我觉得他们都觉得，如果你的比特币被包装起来，放在摩根士丹利的账户里，那隐私性就大打折扣了。
I think they all felt that there's some component of privacy that has disappeared if your Bitcoin is wrapped and sitting in your Morgan Stanley account.
你懂吗？
You know?
所以，我……
So I...
然后那些……
And then those...
Kelp DAO 和 HACK 以及其他一些黑客事件。
The Kelp DAO and HACK and some of the other hacks.
但是，我，你……
But I You
你个人投资组合里没有持有任何 Zcash 吗？
don't hold any Zcash in your personal portfolio?
没有。
No.
你觉得它重要到你会持有吗？
Do you think it's that important that you would hold it?
还是说，你只是觉得这很有趣，但规模还是太小，不适合你做的事情？
Or it's like you're just saying this is very interesting, but still too small for the kind of thing I do?
我会的。
I would.
我只是没有……
I just didn't...
你不可能什么都做，这就是我的……
You know, you can't do everything, and that's my...
还有一句老话，就是做不到。
That's another saying, you just can't.
我们内部孵化了一个项目，那个项目在Solana上做了去中心化的封装Zcash。
We had a project internally that we were incubating, and that project had decentralized wrapped Zcash on Solana.
它叫Zenrock。
It was called Zenrock.
不幸的是，它被黑客攻击了，我们不得不关闭这个项目。
Unfortunately, it got hacked, we had to close the project.
它非常小。
It was very small.
但我们一直非常看好Zcash，已经有一段时间了。
But we've been very bullish on Zcash for...
我的团队在十八个月前就发过相关文章，因为它确实有价值。
You know, and my team posted on it, you know, eighteen months ago because there is value.
那里有独特的东西，而且非常深入，非常加密原生。
There is value there that's something unique, and it's very deep, deeply crypto.
所以随着旧世界的人，也就是传统金融界的人进入这个领域，这个空间……
So as the old world, the TradFi people come in, the the space...
我一直相信旧世界和新世界会在中间相遇。
You know, I've always believed that the old world and the new world would meet in the middle.
所以现在旧世界的人开始理解比特币、以太坊和索拉纳，他们也有这些债务，但最初的加密人群，
And so the old world is now understanding Bitcoin and Eth and Solana and you have these debts, but the original crypto crowd,
他们，
they,
那些资产对他们来说就不那么有趣了。
you know, those assets are less interesting for them.
你
You
提到了这种非流动性资产上链，但事实并非如此。
mentioned this illiquid asset coming on chain, but it's not the case.
目前还没有什么大动作，但你可以押注在流动性方面，这方面正在变得非常庞大。
There's nothing big yet that you But can bet on the liquid side, it's becoming massive.
有什么好的方法来押注这个趋势呢？
What's some good ways to bet on this trend?
哦，我觉得炒作是个很好的押注方向。
Oh, well, I think hype is a great bet.
从历史上看，我也喜欢证券化。
I'd like to securitize as well historically.
估值一直有起有落。
You know, the valuation has, you know, gone up and down.
你得在合适的价位买入。
You have to buy things at the right price.
我觉得RWA永续交易会变得非常大，市场潜力几乎是无限的，市场规模非常大。
I think RWA perp trading is something that will be very big with a near infinite TAM, a very large TAM.
所以，这变化很大。
So Which is very variational.
变化很大。
Variational.
不。
No.
这是其中一种玩法。
It's it's one way to to play that.
我觉得炒作是另一种，而且还有其他永续合约之类的东西。
I think hype is another, and you have things like, you know, there are other perp...
你难倒我了。
You got me.
我总得试试嘛。
I had to try that.
不。
No.
我……
I...
那还处于早期阶段。
That's in its infancy.
规模还很小，但确实很有道理。
It's very small, but it it makes so much sense.
所以当人们说，哦，这个炒作的东西太大了，被高估了等等，比如已经涨了33倍，你是说整个这个领域跟它可能达到的规模相比仍然非常小。
So when people say, oh, this hype thing is so big, it's overvalued, etcetera, like, it's up already 33x, you're saying all this sector is still super small compared to what it could be.
能玩的方式其实就那么几种。
There's only, you know, only a handful of ways to play it.
想想看有多少中心化交易所。
Just think about how many centralized exchanges there are.
我不是说它们都很好，但比如有币安。
I'm not saying they're all great, but, you know, you have Binance.
还有 Coinbase。
You have Coinbase.
还有 Kraken、Bitget、OKX。
You have Kraken, Bitget, OKX.
中心化交易所其实很多。
I mean, there are a lot of centralized exchanges.
所以永续合约才刚刚起步，我觉得 RWA 永续合约很有创新性。
So this is just the very beginning of, you know, perps, and I think RWA perps because that's something innovative.
你看。
And look.
我是从市场和交易的角度来看这个问题的。
I come at this from the market and trading perspective.
我一直……
I've always...
还有金融。
And finance.
我一直都……
I've always...
那一直是我的兴趣所在。
That's been my interest.
去中心化账本，也就是比特币网络和其他某些区块链，这种不可篡改的特性，对整个经济都有应用价值。
The application of the decentralized ledger that is impenetrable, which is the bit coin network and certain other blockchains, has application to the entire economy.
比如，所有文档最终都应该放在区块链上。
You know, all documentation, for instance, should eventually sit on a blockchain.
区块链作为一切事物的验证和确认系统，这个应用甚至还没开始，而且这跟金融无关。
A blockchain as the verification validation system for everything hasn't even started yet, and that's not financial.
产权数字化，这也是NFT和元宇宙繁荣的部分原因，这个……
The digitization of property rights, which was part of the reason we had the boom in NFTs and metaverse, that's...
它还没完全恢复。
It hasn't quite come back yet.
但背后的理念，我觉得是非常有道理的。
But the the thesis behind that, I think, is very valid.
产权数字化。
Digitization of property rights.
比如说，艺术家可以把他们的作品代币化，然后每次交易时还能赚取持续的费用。
The the the fact that artists, for instance, could have, you know, their their their work product tokenized, but then also earn a recurring fee every time something trades.
只是时机太早了。
It's just it was too early.
你对艺术很热衷啊。
You big into arts.
嗯，我不确定是不是很热衷，但我确实有一些画作。
Well, I don't know if I'm big, but I I have some paintings.
你对NFT的未来有多看好？
How bullish are you on NFTs in the future?
你说过，这太早了。
You said, like, it was too early.
这东西会卷土重来吗？
Is this thing coming back?
嗯，它其实从未……
Well, it never...
所以它沉寂了一段时间，但一直在以非常小的规模悄悄增长。
So it died for a little bit, but it's been growing nicely, quietly in a very small way.
所以确实有一些数字艺术家。
And so there are certain digital artists.
你看。
And look.
你可以和Raul Powell做一整期访谈。
You could have an entire interview with Raul Powell.
我知道。
I know.
前几天。
The other day.
他有没有谈到NFT，那个……
Did he talk about NFTs the
全程都在聊吗？
whole time?
聊到NFT，当然会聊一些。
Talk about NFTs, obviously, a bit.
他确实……
He has...
好吧。
Okay.
他非常专注于这方面，我也认识其他几个非常专注于此的人。
He he is very focused there, and I know a handful of other people who are very focused on that.
我们在一家叫Kandi的公司还有一点剩余的投资，那家公司就属于那个领域。
And we have a small residual investment in a company called Kandi, and that is part of that whole world.
它更多和棒球大联盟的卡牌有关，CEO是我们以前的一个合伙人，他做得很好，正在努力把公司带起来。
It has more to do with Major League Baseball cards and, you know, the the CEO the is an ex partner of ours, and he's doing a great job to to lift that up.
但进展很慢，因为这对人们来说不一定自然，而且我觉得这也和代际有关。
But it's slow because it's not necessarily natural for people, and I also think it's generational.
我觉得这是代际差异。
I think it's generational.
我们领域创新很多，但现实是，几乎没有一个60岁的人，50岁的人也很少，会参与其中，或者理解它，或者关心它。
So much innovation in our space, but the reality is is that no one, almost no one 60 and very few people 50 are, you know, are engaged in it or get it or care about it.
他们有……
You know, they have...
所以我去参加了……
So I went to the...
这里，我这周来的。
Here, I came for the week.
我去了福布斯全球CEO大会，那里都是传统人士。
I went to the Forbes Global CEO Conference, and that was traditional people.
整个会议期间，我都没听到有人提到比特币或区块链。
And I didn't hear the word Bitcoin or blockchain mentioned the entire time.
而且这些人非常……
And these are very...
这些人都是亚洲大公司的高管，都是名人，比如Ray Dalio，还有Templeton的Jenny。
These are the CEOs of large Asian companies, famous people, Ray Dalio, know, Jenny from Templeton.
他们就是那个建制派。
I mean, are, you know, the the the establishment.
我去听他们讲……
And I went to go to hear...
我认识他们中的一些人。
I mean, I know some of them.
我有一个好朋友，他多年来一直参加这个会议，说这是最好的会议之一，非常吸引人。
I have I have a good friend of mine who's gone for years and says it's, you know, one of the best conferences, and it's fascinating.
但我觉得他们对这个世界并不真正感兴趣，因为它仍然太奇怪，也太小众。
But they're not really interested in this world, I think, because it's too weird still, and it's too small.
当然，大部分对话都围绕着人工智能，而我认为他们没有意识到AI和区块链是紧密相连的，区块链是所有这些独立自主代理的货币。
And, of course, most of the conversation was just about AI, and I don't think they realized that AI and blockchain really go together, and that, you know, blockchain is the money for all of these independent autonomous agents.
这就是它们之间传递价值的方式。
I mean, that's how they'll be sending value back and forth.
那么，现在有哪些聪明人在哪些事情上搞错了？
So What are some smart people getting wrong right now?
搞错什么？
Getting what?
搞错。
Wrong.
嗯，哪些聪明人？
Well, which smart people?
聪明人总是会搞错
I mean, smart people are always getting
一些事情。
things wrong.
想想最……然后学习。
Think the most And then learning.
最聪明的……
The smartest...
现在大多数加密货币领域的人是不是搞错了什么？
Most of the people in crypto are getting wrong right now?
这个先放一边……
Well, I mean, forget about...
我待会儿再回答这个问题。
I'll answer this a second.
但埃隆·马斯克说三年后就不会有货币了。
But, you know, Elon Musk is saying that there will be no money in three years.
我觉得这不对。
I think that's wrong.
我只是……
I just...
我看不出价值怎么会凭空消失，也看不出三年内人类就不会再喜欢某些东西并想拥有它们了。
I don't see how value is just going to disappear, and I don't see how in the span of three years humans are not going to attach value to things they like and wanna own them.
所以相信无限丰饶是一回事，我觉得那有可能，但我不认为货币会在三年内消失，天哪。
So, you know, it's one thing to believe in infinite abundance, which I think is possible, but I don't see money going away in three years for goodness sake.
你还记得十五年前，人们就在谈论现金会消失吗？
Do you remember fifteen years ago, they were talking about cash disappearing?
现金现在还在。
Cash is still around.
纸质现金。
Paper cash.
所以这挺有意思的。
So, you know, it's funny.
一方面，一切都在飞速发展，但另一方面，事情……
Everything is happening so quickly on the one hand, but then on the other hand, things...
有些事情永远不会像你想象的那样快发生。
Some things never happen, you know, as quick as you think they will.
所以我会说，那个阵营的观点是错的，这就是为什么我认为仍然有巨大的价值。
So I would say that that camp is wrong, and that's why I think there's tremendous value still.
而且，真正理解为什么价值会迁移到链上的人还不够多。
And there aren't enough people who understand why value will migrate on chain.
那为什么这让我感到安心呢？
So why is that comforting for me?
因为这意味着我的观点有足够的时间来长期发展。
Because that means my view has time to run long term.
所以……
So...
那第二个问题是什么来着？
And what was the second?
在加密货币领域，人们都搞错了什么？
What are people getting wrong in crypto?
那个……
What was the
你觉得那些聪明人现在搞错了什么？
What do you think the smart people are getting wrong
现在？
right now?
我……
I...
这个问题太难回答了，因为每个人，每个人……
You know, that's such a tough question because everyone everyone...
加密领域里有很多非常聪明的人。
I mean, a lot of people in crypto are very smart.
他们中的大多数经常犯错，然后不断学习和调整。
Most of them are getting things wrong all the time, and then they're learning and iterating.
有些公司原本走一条路，后来转向了。
We have companies that were going down one path and then they pivoted.
比如，就拿 Circle 来说。
Then, I mean, like the example, for instance, just take a look at Circle.
杰里米在 2016、2017、2018 年的时候，被 Poloniacs 的事情缠住了，差点被拖垮，然后他在 2019、2020 年转向了稳定币。
And, you know, Jeremy in, what, two thousand sixteen, seventeen, eighteen was caught up with the Poloniacs, and that almost pulled him under, and then he pivots to stablecoins in twenty nineteen, twenty.
所以，我觉得那才是更有意思的事情。
So I I think that is the more, you know, interesting thing.
谁在转向正确的方向呢？
Who is pivoting to the right, you know, spots?
比如温克莱沃斯兄弟，双子星的IPO显然失败了。
The Winklevai, for instance, the Gemini IPO was obviously a failure.
交易所的交易量确实下降了，现在他们转向了预测市场，把他们的预测市场产品做成白标。
The exchange has definitely gone down in volume, and now they've pivoted to prediction markets, to white labeling their prediction market product.
我们拭目以待。
And we'll see.
你知道吗？
You know?
我觉得这是个好主意，但还得看情况。
I think it's a good idea, but we'll see.
快速致敬一下Jupiter的传奇团队，那个DeFi超级应用。
Quick shout out to the legendary team at Jupiter, the DeFi super app.
你想在链上做的任何事情，从交易到赚取收益，用Jupiter就行了。
Anything you want to do on chain, from trading to earning yield, you can just use Jupiter.
我个人建议，在手机或笔记本电脑上安装Jupiter钱包。
Personally, I recommend getting the Jupiter wallet on either your phone or your laptop.
比竞争对手快10倍，便宜10倍。
10x faster and 10x cheaper than the competition.
你一定会喜欢的！
You're gonna love it!
感谢Ethena的出色团队对今天对话的支持。
Thank you to the awesome team at Ethena for backing today's conversation.
Ethena是DeFi领域增长最快的项目之一，稳定币供应量超过70亿美元，sUSDe平均年收益率达11%。
Ethena is one of the fastest growing projects in DeFi with over $7,000,000,000 in stablecoin supply and an average 11% APY on s USDe.
重要的是，自推出以来零脱钩，这正是你对稳定币的期望。
And importantly, zero DPEG since launch, which is exactly what you want from a stablecoin.
点击下方描述中的链接去看看吧。
Go check them out by following the link in the description down below.
你说我今天感觉自在，因为很多人仍然不明白价值会……
You said I feel comfortable today because a lot of people still don't understand that value will...
所有的价值都会上链。
All the value will go on chain.
你能简单解释一下，为什么你认为所有的价值都会上链，给那些还不相信的人听吗？
Can you explain simply why you believe that all the value will go on chain to all these people who still don't believe it?
嗯，因为这是你能想到的最简单的事情。
Well, because it's it's the most easy thing you can imagine.
我考虑的是它的便利性。
I think about its ease.
那是什么意思呢？
And what does that mean?
我想的是我的一生，所有的文件，不管是国税局的、法律的、信托的，还是你拥有的各种东西，比如房产和不同的投资组合。
I think about my entire life, all of my documents, whether they're, you know, from the IRS or legal or trust or all the various things you own, properties and your different portfolios.
问题在于它们都分散在各处。
And the problem is is that they're all over the place.
一旦所有东西都迁移到链上，它们就在你的数字钱包里了。
Once everything migrates on chain, it's in your digital wallet.
它都在一个地方，然后它就变得可互换，这太不可思议了。
It's in one place, and then it becomes fungible, you know, which is incredible.
你的意思是？
You Meaning?
意思是，如果你想，比如说，卖掉你的房子，它……
Meaning, if you want to, let's say, sell your house, you know, it's...
房子的价值就在链上。
The value of the house is there on chain.
砰。
Boom.
它可以几乎立即结算。
It can it can be settled almost immediately.
结算要花很长时间。
I mean, settlement takes forever.
这就是为什么我认为在纽约，一笔房地产交易要经过17个不同的步骤。
This is why a real estate transaction, I think, in New York goes through 17 different steps.
这太疯狂了，还有公证人。
That's crazy, you know, with notaries.
就像十九世纪的法国，那个公证人。
I mean, it's like nineteenth century France, the notaire.
我们现在还在那儿做公证。
We're sitting around still notarizing things.
我觉得最终，这项技术就会这样被应用。
I think eventually, that's how this technology gets applied.
它就是一个真相的账本，知识的账本，被固化下来，而最重要的是价值被固化。
It's it's the it's the ledger of truth, of knowledge that is cemented, and the most important thing to have cemented is value.
我觉得观点来来去去。
I think opinions come and go.
想法来来去去。
Ideas come and go.
你知道吗？
You know?
有点……
Something...
你不能让你一生创造的价值就这么消失。
You you you can't have it that the value you've created in your life can just disappear.
这么说有道理吗？
So does that make sense?
你信服吗？
Does Are you convinced?
你不用说服我。
You don't need to convince me.
我
I
知道。
know.
我知道。
I know.
我知道。
I know.
我们都相信这一点。
We all believe that.
不然我们也不会在这里。
Wouldn't be here otherwise.
如果今天有人25岁，他们应该把精力放在哪里？
If someone is 25 year old today, where should they spend where should they spend their energy?
哦，向AI学习。
Oh, I mean, learning from, you know, the AIs.
你只要……
You just...
这是最不可思议的事情。
It's the most incredible thing.
就像，我记得当我们……
It's like, I remember when we were...
1994年，在网景公司出现之前，还没有搜索引擎，后来就有了。
In 1994 before Netscape, there was no search, and then there was search.
以前要花几周才能找到的东西，现在就在你指尖。
Things that would take weeks to find were at your fingertips.
现在也是一样的情况。
It's the same thing now.
聊天机器人，随便哪个，Claude，这些……
Chat, whatever, Claude, any of these...
任何一个都了不起，Grok也是。
Any of them, they're phenomenal, Grok.
你就应该坐在那里，尽可能多地提问，向它学习。
And you should be sitting there and learning and asking it as many questions as as you possibly can.
我们在公司内部建了一个机器人，它把我们过去七年硬盘上的所有信息都吸收了，包括我们对这个领域所有公司的了解。
I mean, we've built a bot internal to my firm that has taken all of, you know, the last seven years of information on our hard drive, all of the things we know about all of the companies in the space.
我们还让它读了你所有的访谈，以及这个领域里每个人的访谈。
We've had it ingest every single interview of yours, of everybody in the space.
我们让它读了所有公开领域的信息，它是我有史以来最聪明的分析师，没有之一。
We've had it read everything that's in the public domain, and it's by far the smartest analyst I've ever had.
完全没有可比性。
I mean, it's no comparison.
我坐在我的电报上，就直接问它问题。
I I I sit on my telegram, and I just ask him the question.
我不用在凌晨两点把分析师叫醒，因为我要跟一家公司通话，而我却对它一无所知。
I don't have to wake my analyst up, you know, at two in the morning because I'm doing a call with a company, and I don't know anything about it.
这种力量真是令人难以置信。
The power of that is mind boggling.
所以这真的……
So it's really...
没有任何借口不去学习你感兴趣的领域。
There's no excuse not to educate yourself in any area of your interest.
我们上次一起录的那集在YouTube上还挺火的。
Our last episode together went quite viral on YouTube.
已经超过35万次观看，而且还在涨。
More than 350,000 views and counting.
那集的名字叫《在加密货币中致富的秘诀，没人想听的那些》。
The name of the episode was The Secrets to Getting Rich in Crypto That Nobody Wants to Hear.
大家都很喜欢！
People loved it!
所以丹，给我们讲讲吧。
So Dan, enlighten us.
在加密货币中致富的秘诀，没人想听的那些，到底是什么？
What are the secrets to getting rich in crypto that nobody wants to hear?
我觉得大部分是中国的机器人推高了播放量。
I I I I think it was mostly bots from China that drove up the viewership.
我还是不相信你
I still don't believe You're
太谦虚了。
being too humble.
我不相信那35万。
I don't believe the 350,000.
你知道吗？
You know?
而且我在我们上次的播客里也稍微提过，我当时在想，那之后我还有没有别的可说的？
And I I said it a little bit in the previous podcast we did, and I was thinking, do I have anything left to say after that?
但简单总结一下就是……
But the short summary of it is...
而且我们在这次谈话中也提到过，那就是在这个领域赚钱很容易。
And we've alluded to it during this during this talk, which is that it's very easy to make money in the in the space.
但守住钱几乎是不可能的。
Holding on to it is nearly impossible.
最困难的是，每隔三四年，就会有一个熊市，把所有人都彻底清盘。
And the most difficult thing really is that every three, four years, you have a bear market that completely wipes out everybody.
好的。
Okay.
而且不是所有人。
And not everybody.
我们没有被淘汰，但它试图淘汰所有人，然后只有少数人幸存下来。
We we didn't get wiped out, but it attempts to wipe out everyone and then a few survive.
我之前也说过。
And so I said this before.
诀窍不在于说，好吧。
The trick is not to say, okay.
我要赚100倍，然后我要……
I'm going to make a 100 x, and I'm going to...
在三年内……
You know, you know, in three year...
今年或明年，我要赚到足够的钱，再也不需要工作了。
In this year or next year, I'm going to, you know, make enough money to to to never have to work again.
当你有这种想法的时候，你就知道这永远不会成功。
That's that's when you know it's never gonna work.
关键是要看得更长远，然后说，听着。
It's to take a longer view and to say, look.
这些是我的目标。
These are my objectives.
这是我打算为这个观点分配的资金，我会坚持这个计划。
This is the capital I'm going to allocate to this view, and I'm gonna sit with it.
十年后，这就是我的预期。
And at the end of ten years, this is what I expect.
如果你做不到这一点，我觉得那会非常困难。
And if you can't do that, I just think it's extremely difficult.
或者你也可以设定一个更短的时间框架，比如五年。
Or you can maybe set a shorter time frame, five years.
但问题是，如果你设定了五年的框架，而且你是在22年买入的……
But the problem is if you set a five year framework and if you bought in '22...
所以这确实是个问题，好，现在我们稍微讨论一下这个领域。
So this is really the problem, okay, with our space a little bit now.
我们还没谈到这一点。
We haven't touched on this.
但比特币的价格和五年前基本一样。
But Bitcoin is essentially the same price as it was five years ago.
以太坊也是如此。
The same thing with Eth.
所以我们对核心资产没有热情，因为价格没有变化，而且这些东西不太可能像以前那样涨100倍。
So we don't have enthusiasm for the core assets because there's been no price change, and it's unlikely that those things are going up a 100 times like they did previously.
如果你在2015年或2016年买入，你已经涨了100倍。
If you bought in 2015, 2016, you're up a 100 x.
但如果你看2017年到2022年这五年窗口，也有同样的问题。
But if you look at the five year window between 2017 and 2022, there was the same problem.
价格取决于你什么时候买入，结果是一样的。
The price was the same depending on when you bought.
所以十年期限，对。
That's why ten years Mhmm.
你得一直持有。
You have to hold.
而且我回想起来，那时候真的只有比特币。
And I I I think, you know, back then, it was really only Bitcoin.
我觉得比特币、以太坊、索拉纳，可能还有……
I think Bitcoin, Eth, Solana, potentially, there are...
如果你想稍微分散一下的话。
If you want to have a bit of diversification.
但是……
But what...
现在发生的情况是，因为有上市公司股票、债务和ETF，交易圈和对冲基金界的人把所有资产放在一起交易。
What's happening now is because there are public stocks and their debts and ETFs is that the traders in the trading community, in the hedge fund world, are trading all the assets together.
所以比特币和以太坊按理说应该独立交易，但因为它们是流动性资产，被那些大型机构归到了同一个类别里。
So Bitcoin and Eth potentially should be trading independently, but because they're liquid assets, they're being lumped into that bucket by the very large...
交易界。
The trading world.
大家可能没意识到，对冲基金里有56万亿美元，而且这些资金还被杠杆放大了好几倍。
Like, people don't realize there's $56,000,000,000,000 in hedge funds, but it's leveraged multiple times.
所以当这些对冲基金，很多是基于量化算法的，它们一旦盯上一个资产，就会对整个资产类别下手，即使这并不合理。
And so when those hedge funds, and many of them are quant algo based, when they turn on an asset, they turn on the whole thing, even if it doesn't make sense.
这就是为什么现在Coinbase和比特币的相关性很强，尽管从逻辑上讲……
And that's why Coinbase now has a very strong correlation with Bitcoin even though arg...
按理说，不应该这么强。
Arguably, it shouldn't.
按理说不应该，但事实就是这样。
Arguably, shouldn't, but it does.
所以要保持长远的眼光。
So Keep a long term view.
我知道这听起来很无聊，大家可能不想听
I know it's boring, and people maybe don't wanna hear
这些。
that.
确实有效。
Works.
但是……
But...
或者我会这么说，或者去创办一个你真正相信的企业，或者进入一个尚未完全成熟的行业，在那里你真的能开辟出一片天地。拥有企业的股权是非常强大的，而且也能让你摆脱价格波动的困扰，这是关键所在，因为你会想，好吧。
Or I would say this, or start a business you really believe in or move into a business that is, like, you know, not fully mature where you think you really can carve out a niche, owning equity in a business is very powerful and also removes you from, you know, the the the price volatility, which is the which is the key thing because you're thinking, okay.
我正在努力建立这个企业，而且我相信这个企业。
I'm trying to build this business, and I believe in this business.
当然，如果结果不如预期，那也存在风险，但这是另一种方式。
Now there's risk there if it if it doesn't turn out to be right, but that's another way.
而且我在我的实物黄金业务中也感受到了这一点，它的结构方式确实是一种参与黄金价格的方式，而且没有所有那些……
And I felt that with my physical gold business, that the way it's structured is certainly a way to play the price in gold, and it has without all of the...
另外，就是缺乏耐心。
Also, impatience.
黄金价格有六七年都停滞不前。
Gold price went sideways for six, seven years.
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