#42：罗尔夫·多贝里谈如何在喧嚣世界中清晰思考

大家好，欢迎收听新一期的《我们是谁》播客，今天我有幸邀请到一位特别的嘉宾——罗尔夫。

Hi everyone, welcome to another episode of the Who We Are podcast and today I have a very special guest with me, Rolf.

罗尔夫，能邀请你上节目真是莫大的荣幸。

Rolf, it is an absolute pleasure to have you on the show.

你被誉为当代最敏锐的思想家之一，不仅剖析人类决策行为，更从根本上挑战我们对待成功、幸福与效率的认知方式。

You have been described as one of the sharpest thinkers of our time, someone who doesn't just dissect human decision making, but also fundamentally challenges the way we approach successes, happiness, and productivity.

你的著作《清醒思考的艺术》和新书《不为清单》影响了数百万人，促使我们更批判性地思考、更明智地行动，或许更重要的是——戒除那些悄然破坏生活的习惯。

Your books, The Art of Thinking Clearly, and your latest book, The Not To Do List, have influenced millions, urging us to think more critically, act more wisely, and also perhaps more importantly, unlearn the habits that quietly sabotage our lives.

今天我们将超越传统智慧，探讨不仅要做得更多，更要更精要地做得更少。

Today we're going beyond conventional wisdom to explore not just how to do more but how to do less better.

欢迎来到节目，罗尔夫。

Welcome on the show Rolf.

我不是最聪明的人。

I'm not the smartest person.

但你绝对称得上是有史以来最敏锐的思想家之一，今天能与你对话我深感荣幸。

Well, you have to describe for sure as one of the sharpest thinkers of all time and I am so grateful to have you with us today.

但在我们深入探讨认知偏差、决策制定和不做的力量之前。

But before we dive into cognitive biases, decision making and the power of not doing.

我想先聊点个人话题，如果可以的话。

I love to start on a personal note, you know, if that's possible.

你多年来一直致力于将复杂理念提炼为实用智慧。

You've spent years distilling complex ideas into practical wisdom.

但你自己生活中仍在与哪种'不做'的习惯作斗争呢？

But what's one not to do habit that you still struggle with in your own life?

哦，我最大的问题是过度自信。

Oh, my my big one is is is overconfidence.

过度自信是人类的典型特征。

Overconfidence is is a typical human trait.

我可能比其他人更严重些。

I have it probably a little bit stronger than than other people.

这并非理性行为。

It's not a rational thing.

过度自信意味着我们认为自己比实际更聪明。

Overconfidence means we think we are smarter than we are.

我们认为自己比实际更快。

We think we are faster than we are.

我们认为自己比实际更敏捷高效。

We think we are quicker and more efficient than we actually are.

然后通常结果是我们无法完成一天中想要达成的所有目标。

And and then it usually turns out we we don't achieve what we all try to achieve in a in a day.

举个简单的例子。

For take a simple example.

很多人都会做每日待办清单。

A lot of people do to do lists for the day.

你知道的，就是列出'今天我要完成这10件事'或'今天我计划做这些'。

You know, these are the 10 things I wanna I wanna do today or I I aim to do this day.

你真正完成所有承诺事项的情况有多少次呢？

And how often does it happen when you really get all the things done that you promised yourself to do?

这种情况从未发生过。

It never happens.

有趣的是我们不会从中吸取教训，第二天仍然不会调整，清单上还是列10件事而不是5件。

So and the funny thing is we don't learn from this, so we don't adapt to the next day and only put five things on the list instead of 10.

我也有同样的问题。

And I have the same problem.

我一直在与这个问题作斗争。

I grapple with this all the time.

我总是高估自己完成某个项目的速度。

I always think I'm faster than I am with a certain project.

我自以为懂得比实际多。

I'm I know more than I do.

然后我就撞上了现实。

And then I I run into reality.

所以过度自信确实是个我一直都在与之斗争的大问题。

So overconfidence is a really, really big issue I still grapple with.

非常感谢你如此坦诚地分享。

Well, thank you for sharing so honestly.

在我们深入探讨你写的那些精彩书籍之前，我想更多了解你的个人哲学。

And, you know, before we dive deeper also into the books, amazing books that you've written, I wanted to understand more also on your personal philosophy.

是什么样的个人经历或人生关键时刻，让你将决策制定和认知偏差作为工作的核心主题？

What personal experiences or perhaps pivotal moments in your life led you to explore decision making and cognitive biases as central themes in your work?

大约十五到二十年前，美国与以色列的一些心理学领域的科学家开始研究认知偏差。

So about fifteen to twenty years ago, some scientists in the psychology space in The US and in Israel, they started to work on cognitive biases.

这是心理学研究中的一个边缘运动。

It was a fringe movement in psychology, into psychology research.

人们意识到人类并不理性。

People realize that human beings are not rational.

我们有自己的规律。

We have laws.

我们是非理性的，但以某种特定的方式。

We are irrational, but in a certain way.

我们并非毫无规律地非理性，时而偏左时而偏右，而是能明确非理性的方向。

We're not just irrational, once to the right, once to the left, but we know in which direction we are irrational.

像丹尼·卡尼曼（2002年诺贝尔奖得主）和阿莫斯·特沃斯基这样的人，他们开始研究这些现象。

And people like Donnie Kahneman and who got the Nobel Prize in 2002 and Amos Tversky, they started working on these things.

还有约翰·吉尔维奇，以及后来也获得诺贝尔奖的理查德·泰勒。

John Gilovich, you have Richard Taylor who later got the Nobel Prize.

他们开始研究这些课题。

They started working on these things.

最初这确实是个边缘领域，但我对这类研究非常着迷。

It was a real fringe movement at the beginning, but I was kind of fascinating with that research.

当时我想找一本书，能简要总结所有这些认知偏差——有时被称为启发法，有时叫认知偏见，有时又叫思维谬误。

And I was looking for a book that will give me kind of short summaries of all these cognitive biases, of all these sometimes it's called heuristics, sometimes it's called cognitive biases, sometimes it's called thinking errors.

其实这些都是同一类现象。

It's all the same.

它们都是对逻辑的偏离，偏离了我们理论上应有的工作和思维方式。

It's deviations from logic, Deviations from logical way, how we should, in theory, work and think.

于是我开始收集这些内容，发现没人做这件事，就自己动手整理起来。

So I started collecting these things, and I saw that nobody else is doing it, so I started collecting it for myself.

我把这些笔记收藏告诉了朋友们。

I told friends about this collection of notes.

他们说，你为什么不写个报纸专栏呢？

They said, why why don't you write a newspaper column?

后来我确实在德国和瑞士的报纸上开设了相关专栏，这些文章最终集结成书，并被翻译成多种语言。

So I eventually wrote a newspaper column about this in Germany and in Switzerland, and then this got translated into a book, and, and then the book got translated in several languages.

这可以说是第一本系统总结这类现象的著作。

And it was kind of the first book that summarizes all these things.

它就像一本关于思维谬误的百科全书。

It's kind of an encyclopedia of these thinking errors.

这是后来出版的第一本此类书籍。

It was the first book that came out later on.

虽然之后涌现了许多类似书籍，但这是第一本用简明清单形式罗列所有系统性思维谬误的作品。

A lot of books came out, but it was the first one with kind of a short checklist of all these systematic thinking errors.

但如果你了解这99或100种系统性思维错误，你就已经走在正确的道路上了。

But if you know those 99 or a 100 systematic thinking errors, you're already on a good way.

哇。

Wow.

那么，在众多认知偏差中，你认为当今世界最具破坏性的是哪一种？我们该如何防范？

And, you know, among the many cognitive biases, which one do you believe is the most destructive in today's world and how can we guard against that?

其中一个是沉没成本谬误。

So one is the sunk cost fallacy.

沉没成本谬误在企业和商业中很常见，但在小规模

At the sunk cost fallacy, you see that a lot in in companies and businesses, but you see it in the small

的人际关系中也能看到。

scale relationships.

甚至在人际关系中也是如此。

Even in relationships.

当你投入大量时间或金钱在某件事上，结果却发现这是个错误选择时，你会告诉自己：'我已经在这段关系上投入了这么多时间，不能就此放弃。'

So you invest a lot of time or money into something which turns out to be the wrong thing, then you tell yourself, now I invested so much time in this relationship, I can't break it off.

但如果这是段错误的关系，最好及时结束。

But if it's the wrong relationship, it's better to break it off.

如果确实是段错误的关系，有时看起来是错的，但还有挽救的可能。

If it's really the wrong relationship, sometimes it seems wrong, but it could be salvaged.

但如果这是段错误的关系，最好还是切断它。

But if it's the wrong relationship, it's better to to cut it.

或者你在读大学课程或学习，但两年后你发现这对你来说是错误的选择。

Or you are doing a university course or or study, but after two years, you you see that it's the wrong thing to do for yourself.

但人们会继续想，我必须完成这个学位，因为我已经投入了两年的时间。

But people then continue, I need to finish the degree because I've already invested two years of my time in this.

但如果这是错误的选择，最好是停下来去做正确的事。

But if it's the wrong thing to do, it's better to to to stop it and do the right thing.

或者我们已经在这个营销方案、这个营销活动上投入了200万美元。

Or we've already invested $2,000,000 in this marketing approach, this marketing campaign.

如果结果证明这是错误的，最好是及时止损，而不是继续找理由坚持。

If it turns out to be the wrong one, it's better to cut it and not to continue with the justification.

哦，我们已经投入了200万了。

Oh, we already invested 2,000,000.

我们现在不能停手。

We can't stop it now.

或者在股市里，你买了一只股票，它开始暴跌。

Or in the stock market, you you buy a stock, it starts to tank.

股价不断下跌。

It goes down.

然后你问自己，现在该卖出还是继续持有？

And then you tell yourself, oh, should I sell it now or should I keep it?

但我已经亏了这么多钱，所以宁愿不卖。

But I've already lost so much money with it, so I'd rather not sell it.

这是个错误的想法。

That's the wrong idea.

你必须评估现在股价上涨或下跌的概率。

It you have to look at now what will what is the probability that the stock will go up or down.

无论你为此支付了多少，这种差异被称为沉没成本。

It no matter what you paid for it, and that difference is called sound cost.

沉没成本是指那些无法收回的金钱和时间成本，它们不应该影响你的决策。

Sound costs are costs in times of money that you cannot get back, and they should not play a role in your decision making.

但有趣又错误的是，它们确实在我们的大脑中起作用。

But funny enough and wrongly enough, they play a role in our brain.

这就是我们大脑的运作方式。

That's just how our brains are structured.

所以这是个重要概念。

So that's a big one.

互惠原则是另一个可能被利用的心理机制。

Reciprocity is another one where you can get manipulated in into something.

当有人给你东西时，你会觉得必须回报，这种心理容易被操控。

So some person gives you something, then you think you have to give something back, and people can be manipulated in this.

很多营销手段都会这样，比如送你样品或一小块巧克力。

So a lot of marketing material, they'll send you something, a sample or piece of chocolate.

我不知道亚洲的情况如何，但在欧洲这种现象很常见。

I don't know how you how how it is in Asia, but, you see that a lot in Europe.

然后你会不自觉地感到有义务回报些什么，比如注册服务、付出时间或汇款。

And then you feel unconsciously obliged to give something back to to to sign up for the service or to give time or to send money.

这种互惠心理是个棘手的问题，因为它深深根植于我们的大脑中。

So this rusty prosody thing is is is, it's kind of a tricky one because it's very deep in ingrained in our brain.

这是与生俱来的。

It's hardwired.

所有这100种系统性思维错误都是大脑固有的，但如果我们想避免被操控，就必须警惕这些。

All of those 100 systematic thinking errors are hardwired in our brains, but it's things we have to be careful of if you want to be free of this manipulation.

是的，比如你提到的互惠原则，我认为要让关系正常运转——无论是工作还是私人关系——都需要保持健康的互惠程度才能建立积极的关系。

Yeah and you know like for example your point on reciprocity, I think in order for relationships to work, whether at work or in our personal lives, a healthy level of reciprocity is needed to perhaps, know, build a positive relationship.

你怎么看？

What are your thoughts?

还有如何

And how do

我们怎么知道？

we know?

完全同意。

Absolutely.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们怎么知道，在哪个节点上，就像你说的，这一切都变成了操控？

How do we know, you know, at which point is it all, you know, manipulative, like you said?

对。

Yeah.

从销售角度来看，如果一家公司来找你，或者你作为公司CEO手握大笔预算，这时某个销售主管邀请你享用豪华午餐或晚餐。

So in a in a sales aspect, if a company comes to your or you you are you have a big budget as, you know, CEO of a company, and then some sales executive comes to you and invites you for a big fine lunch or a big fine dinner.

这时候我会非常非常谨慎，因为他想通过这顿饭让你觉得有义务给他们合同、把业务给他们。

There I would be very, very careful because he wants to invite you to the dinner, and then you feel obliged to then give them a contract, to give them the business.

如果是建立在...对，这种关系上的话

If it's if it's relationship, that's absolutely built on on Yep.

在礼尚往来这方面，这确实有效。

On the tit for tat, And and that works.

这已经成为人类数百万年来的生存法则。

And that has been the human condition for millions of years.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

这种方式确实有效，这就是为什么我们如此擅长合作。

This really works, and that's why we are so good at cooperating.

我们人类非常擅长合作。

We, as human beings, are so good at cooperating.

但当涉及到大笔金钱交易时，就要格外小心。

But when it comes to big money, chunks of money, then be super careful.

我绝不会接受那些想从我这里获取合同的人的晚餐邀请。

I would never accept an invitation to a dinner from somebody who wants a contract from me.

绝不。

Never.

我、我想先看看合同，然后再决定做不做。

I I wanna I wanna look at the contract and then decide to do it or not to do it.

等签完合同后，我可以和那个人共进晚餐，但之前不行。

And then once it's signed, I can have dinner with the person but not before.

明白了。

Got it.

嗯，这非常清楚。

Well, that's very clear.

好吧，Rolf，我希望你知道如果你再来新加坡，如果我请你吃饭，你知道你会答应的。

Well, Rolf, I hope you know if you ever come to Singapore again, I if I ask you for a meal, know, you you would.

那不是。

That's no.

好的。

Okay.

我明白了。

I get that.

很清楚。

It's clear.

哇。

Wow.

所以从某种意义上说，你不想欠别人人情。

So in a sense, you don't want to owe a favor to someone.

是这样吗？

Is that right?

没错。

That's right.

除非是，你知道的，那些我早已认识、信任的朋友们。

Unless it's, you know, people I already know and people I trust and people are friends.

但如果是新认识的人，我总是会主动付账。

But if it's somebody new, I always pay.

我还想聊聊你的书《不做事清单》，恭喜你取得这样的成功。

I also want to talk about your book, The Not To Do List, and congratulations on this success.

要知道，在这本书中，你特意运用逆向思维，通过强调不该做的事来提供建议。

Know, in this book, you specifically use inversion to offer advice by highlighting what not to do.

为什么你认为这种方法比传统的自助方法更有影响力？

Why do you believe this approach is more impactful than traditional self help methods?

是的。

Yeah.

传统的自助方法——市面上99%的书都是如此——

So traditional self help methods, and that's 99% of all the books out there.

它们会告诉你必须绝对要做的事。

They tell you what you absolutely have to do.

所以你必须去做，没错。

So you have to go do Yeah.

比如每天必须慢跑三十分钟，还得在凌晨五点做二十分钟运动。

Go jogging for thirty minutes every day, then you have to do twenty minutes of 5AM.

你还必须进行二十分钟的冥想。

You have to do twenty minutes of meditation.

你得喝茶、吃药片、补充维生素，这只会增加你必须做的事情。

You have to take teas, pills, and vitamins, and it's it just adds stuff you have to do.

我认为更好的思考方式是理解：如果我们减少生活中的负面因素，积极的一面自然会显现。

I believe that it's better to think to to understand that if we decrease the negative stuff in our lives, the the upside will take care of it.

所以与其专注于如何更成功、更快乐等等，不如思考什么会破坏成功和幸福，并将这些因素从生活中剔除。

So instead of working on the upside, what makes me more successful, what makes me happier, and so on, rather think of what destroys success and what destroys happiness and remove this stuff out of your life.

这个理念来自一位在我写书期间不幸去世的人，但他后来成为了我的好朋友。

And the idea came to me from a guy who unfortunately died while I was writing the book, but he became a good friend of mine.

他的名字叫查理·芒格。

His name is Charlie Munger.

他是位极其睿智的人。

He was a very, very wise person.

他在即将迎来百岁生日时去世，当时我正在写这本书。

He died almost just before his one hundredth birthday when I was writing the book.

他是沃伦·巴菲特的商业伙伴，巴菲特是有史以来最成功的投资者，而查理本人也是位极其睿智的人。

He is the business partner of Warren Buffett, which who is the most successful investor of all times, and and Charlie is a very, very wise person.

他虽然没有出书，但发表过不少演讲。

And he hasn't written a book, but he has given speeches.

其中一场演讲是1986年——很久以前了——在哈佛中学做的，不是波士顿附近的哈佛大学，而是洛杉矶的哈佛中学，他做了一场所谓的毕业演讲。

And one speech he gave was in 1986, a long time ago, at Harvard School, not the Harvard University in the near Boston but the Harvard School in in Los Angeles and we gave a talk, a so called commencement speech.

就是那种由学校邀请的知名人士来给全体毕业生做的演讲。

These are the speeches that you know some famous person from that school comes and tells all the graduate students Yeah.

人生建议。

Advice.

这种'你必须这样做才能成功'的建议。

This this advice, this you have to do in your life and then you're gonna be successful.

而查理却反其道而行，他说：'我要告诉你们几件彻底毁掉人生的事'。

And Charlie turned this around and he said, I'm gonna give you couple of things that totally destroy your life.

绝对灵验。

Guaranteed.

只要别做这些事就行。

Just don't do those things.

我认为这是一种很好的方式，通过给出负面建议让他们避免这些，积极的一面自然会随之而来。

And I thought this is a good approach of giving them negative advice, and then you you can avoid this, and then the upside will take care of itself.

只要你不做这些事，生活自然会变得美好。

Life will turn out to be good if you don't do these things.

查理给的一条建议，我也写进了我的书里，那就是做个不可靠的人。

So one advice that Charlie had that I also incorporated in my book is be unreliable.

当然，实际上千万别那么做。

So there and and then, of course, don't do that.

生活中我看到很多人非常聪明，拥有顶尖大学的成绩，出身于优越的家庭和地区，各方面都很完美，但他们就是不可靠。

So there are a lot of people I see in life who are very smart, who have grades from the best universities, who have you know, who come from the right families, the right ZIP codes, who have everything right, but they are not reliable.

我能看到这些人，你也可以在整个人生中观察到他们。

And I see them, and you can observe them throughout life.

起初一切都很顺利，但后来他们往往会因为不可靠而遭遇失败。

And at the beginning, everything goes well, and then sometimes they crash or mostly they crash because of their unreliability.

最终，人们就不再愿意与他们共事了。

Eventually, people just stop doing work with them.

他们不再与他们做生意。

They stop doing business with them.

人们不愿与他们交往，因为他们不可靠。

They don't wanna interact with them because they're unreliable.

另一方面，我看到很多人并非最聪明，没有最好的成绩，没上过大学，出身普通家庭，基因不突出，相貌平平，速度不快，但他们一生都极其可靠——这些人最终都过上了成功的生活，也许没成为亿万富翁，但拥有稳定、美好、成功的人生。

On the other hand, I see a lot of people who are not the smartest, who didn't have the best grades, who didn't go to universities, who don't come from the best families, who don't have the best genes, who are not the prettiest, who are not the fastest, but they are totally reliable throughout their lives and those guys have success in lives, maybe not become billionaires but they have a good life, a stable, good, successful life.

因此可靠性是极其重要的品质，却在当今社会被严重低估，因为告诉别人‘只要可靠就能过上好生活’听起来不够吸引人。

So reliability is a really, really big chunk, it's totally underrated in today's society because it doesn't, you know, it doesn't sound sexy to to tell somebody just be reliable and and your life's gonna be good.

这提议确实不够酷，但却是成功极其重要的组成部分。那么这种不可靠性是否消除了这点？

That's not a sexy proposition, but it's a very very important, a very very important ingredient of a successful so did this whole thing of unreliability remove that?

这也是查理·芒格的建议之一。

That was one of, Charlie Munger's ones also.

过去几年我收集了数百条这类‘不该做的事’，并在这本《禁忌清单》中整理了一部分。

So I had collected hundreds of of these things yeah over the past couple of years of things that you should not do stuff that are on the not to do list and I've compiled a couple in this book the not to do list.

这个观点太棒了！感谢你提到可靠性，我记得你在书中比较了可靠性与天才，并论证可靠性比才华更重要。如果我能从你的禁忌清单中再挑几个让我印象深刻的点，或许你可以和我们详细聊聊？

I love that You know, thank you for bringing reliability up because I remember in your book you talk about reliability versus genius and you argue that reliability is more important than brilliance and if I can pick out a couple more that really jumped out at me from your not to do list that perhaps you can talk through with us.

其中一个议题也是关于放弃与坚持的选择。

One of which is also quitting versus persevering.

罗尔夫，你知道，我也认为除了选择与谁共度余生外，人生中最重要的决定之一就是要懂得何时该坚持、何时该放弃、何时该继续推进。

Rolf, you know, I also believe that I think one of the most important decisions we have to make in life besides deciding who we choose to spend the rest of our lives with is to also know when to persevere, when to pull the plug or when to push through.

我认为很多时候‘不要放弃’这种建议过于简单化了。

And I think a lot of times, you know, the advice don't give up is too simplistic.

那么我们该如何辨别何时该放弃、何时该坚持？对于你自己，你个人会用什么标准或建议来做这个决定？

So how can we discern when to quit versus when to persevere and for your yourself, what criteria or advice or criteria do you personally use, to make this decision?

在我们做出这个决定之前，关键点在于你的人生目标是什么。

The key point before we even come to that decision is what kind of goals do you have in life.

所以你必须明确自己的目标。

So you have to be clear about your goals.

如果这些目标不明确，你就无法决定是否应该继续做某件事。

If those goals are not clear, you will have no way of deciding whether you should continue or not continue with a certain thing.

但就像我们讨论过的沉没成本谬误。

But like we talked about the sunk cost fallacy.

如果这是错误的事情，最好尽早放弃并改变方向。

If it's the wrong thing to do, it's better to quit early and give up and change course.

关键在于这始终始于你的人生决策——你想用人生实现什么目标，而这恰恰是经常被误解的地方。

So the main point and that it always starts with your life decisions, what do you want to achieve with your life and that is that is something that is also a lot of times misunderstood.

有些人对人生结果或人生目标有着不切实际的想法。

Some people have crazy ideas about life outcomes or life goals.

你设定什么目标取决于你所拥有的天赋技能。

What goals you set is is dependent on the skills you have, your innate skills.

你可能会制定与自身技能不匹配的人生目标。

You can have life goals that don't fit your skills.

也许你并不擅长运动，却想成为下一个网球界的罗杰·费德勒。

Maybe you're not sporty, but you wanna become the next Roger Federer in tennis playing.

这很可能是个错误的人生目标。

That's probably a wrong life goal.

所以你必须审视自己的技能。

So you have to look at your skills.

查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特在这里提出了能力圈的概念。

And here, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, they set up this circle of competence idea.

能力圈是指你技能高于平均水平的领域。

A circle of competence is where your skills are above average.

理想情况下，你应该待在这个能力圈内，成为这个小圈子里最顶尖的人。

Ideally, you wanna be in that circle of competence, the best in the world in that small circle.

这个圈子的大小并不重要，重要的是你要清楚它的边界在哪里。

It's not important how big that circle is, but it's important that you know where that circle ends.

所以你需要审视自己的人生，看看在哪些方面你比普通人优秀得多，这能很好地提示你可能的人生目标方向。

So you have to look at your life and see and check where have I been better than the average person, much better than the average person, and that gives you a good hint that this could lead you into a life goal.

这是一个练习。

That's an exercise.

只需要花费你人生中的半小时。

It takes half an hour, out of your life.

你应该去做这个练习。

You should do it.

你应当明确自己的能力圈范围，然后努力成为这个能力圈中最优秀的人，因为这是你在职业生涯中真正取得实质性成功的唯一途径。

You should define your circle of competence, and then try to be the best person in that circle of competence because that's the only way how you're gonna be really, really material successful in in your career.

一旦你设定了这些人生目标，你就能推导出应该在哪些方面投入时间。

And once you have set those life goals, then you can deduct, you know, where should I invest my time?

在媒体消费方面我应该选择什么内容？

What should I consume in terms of media?

诸如此类。

And so on.

通过定义你的能力圈这一练习，可以衍生出许多事情。

A lot of things flow out of that exercise of defining your circle of competence.

所以只要符合你的能力圈范围就是合适的

So it fits if it fits your circle of competence

嗯。

Yep.

这才是真正属于你的能力圈。

And that's really your circle of competence.

你已经完成了那个小练习，并且非常可靠地回顾了你的人生。

You've done that little exercise and gone back in your life very reliably.

你是否比一般人更优秀？

Are you better than average?

如果这是你的能力圈范围，你就不能轻易放弃。

If this is your circle of competence, you don't just don't quit.

你要继续坚持下去。

You just continue on.

哦，一直坚持到底。

Oh, all the way.

一路坚持到底。

Through all the way.

但如果这不符合你的能力圈范围，也就是说，不符合你的人生目标，那么你就应该放弃并改变方向。

But if this is doesn't fit your circle of competence, I e, it doesn't fit your life goals, then you give up and change course.

所以不要执着于某件事，试图去做那些你永远无法成为该领域世界顶尖人物的事情。

So don't hang hang on to something and trying to do something where you're where you have no chance of achieving the status of the best person in the world to do that specific thing.

因此，我们必须从目标出发，这一点至关重要，其他一切都会随之而来。

So it's it's very important for us to start with the goals, and then everything else flows out of it.

明白了。

Got it.

非常清楚。

That's very clear.

如果当今社会常将生产力视为最高美德，为何您在书中反对结构化日程和待办清单？我们该如何重新思考生产力？

If productivity is often framed today as the ultimate virtue, why do you argue against structured days and to do lists in the book and how can we and how should we rethink productivity?

待办清单的问题在于，那些你每天添加的、人生中想完成的10件事，由于过度自信问题再次显得不合理，因为我们并未真正深思熟虑。

So to do lists, you know, these daily things that you add, you know, these 10 things you want to do in your life, that doesn't make sense again because of the overconfidence issue, because we didn't really plan it through.

正确的做法是规划一天时说：好的，

So the way to do it is to plan a day of saying, okay.

我预估这个任务需要两小时，然后你必须把它放进日程表。

I'm estimating this task is gonna take me two hours, and then you have to put it in the calendar.

接着处理下一个重要任务，并思考：这需要多长时间？

And then you take the next task, the next important task, and say, how long is this gonna take?

好的。

Okay.

这需要我三个小时。

This is gonna take me three hours.

我应该把它安排在日历的哪个时间段？

Where I'm gonna place it in the calendar?

当你为待办事项估算好时间并填入每日日程表后，就会发现无法完成所有想做的事。

And then once you estimate the times to those to dos and you place it into the into your daily calendar, you see that you can't achieve everything that you wanna do.

所以你必须认真规划，这样压力也会消失，因为你已经把事项安排妥当，从而摆脱了那种同时处理无数事务的忙碌文化。

So you have to really plan it out, and then the stress also goes away because then you have then you have it in there, and you're you're getting outside of that hustle culture of just powering through a million things at the same time.

你按部就班地做事，并真正预留足够的时间来完成它。

You do step by step, and you really reserve enough time to do it.

压力自然就消失了。

The stress goes away.

我认为压力越小，效率反而会更高。

I think you're more productive if you have less stress.

没有长期压力的生活更美好。

Life is life is better without chronic stress.

所以把它记在日历上，然后去做。

So put it in the calendar and and and and then do it.

人们总是忘记使用日历这件事。

People forget the calendar thing.

他们只列待办清单，但这是不对的。

They just do to do lists, but that's wrong.

说到这个，我也想请教你，罗尔夫，你是如何管理自己生活中的期望值的？因为你在书中提到过设定过高期望是导致痛苦的根源。

Yeah and on this note also I would love to ask you know Rolf how do you manage your own expectations in life because in your book you talked about having high expectations and believing that setting high expectations is a recipe for misery.

那么你是如何管理自己生活中的期望值的呢？

So how do you manage your own expectations in life?

人们总是混淆愿望和期望。

So people always confuse wishes and expectations.

我生活中其实有很多愿望。

So I have a lot of wishes in my life.

是的。

Yeah.

愿望就像天空中飘浮的云朵，这很棒。

Wishes are like clouds somewhere up in the sky, and that's great.

心怀愿望是美好的，我对生活有很多期许。

It's beautiful to have wishes, and I wish a lot of things for my life.

但它们不应该直接转化为期望。

But, they shouldn't translate, directly into expectations.

期望是更沉重的东西。

Expectations is something harder.

无论期望是否被满足，都会在你的身体里产生反应。

Expectations, if they're met or not met, they generate a reaction in your body.

如果期望落空，就会产生压力。

They generate if you don't met them if you don't meet them, they generate stress.

你的身体会分泌糖皮质激素，这对健康有害。

Your body secretes glucocorticoids That's unhealthy.

它会变得悲伤、愤怒或诸如此类的情绪。

It becomes sad or angry or whatever.

于是这就转化成了情绪。

So it turns into emotions.

所以第一步是我们要将愿望与期望区分开，你可以有很多愿望，但要谨慎对待期望。

So this first step is we separate wishes, and you can have a lot of wishes, from expectations.

对于期望，你必须非常小心。

Expectations, you have to be very careful.

通常来说，保持较低的期望比高期望更好。

It's generally better to have lower expectations than higher expectations.

这样你就不会失望。

Then you cannot be disappointed.

通常当我心里有个目标或想要达成某事时，我会问自己：我对这件事发生的预期有多高？

I usually I usually, if I have if I have a goal in my mind of doing something, or of achieving something, what is my expectation that this this thing is gonna happen?

从零期望到10分（极高预期）的范围内评估。

From zero zero expectation to 10, very high expectations.

我通常会预估，比如说八分这样相当高的期望值，然后我会从中减去两三分，以此设定为我实际的期望值。

I usually set I estimate, like, say, number eight, very quite a high expectation, and then I dish then I then I subtract two or three points from that as I set that my set that this as my expectation.

所以人生中保持低期望通常更好。

So it's generally better to go with low expectations through life.

你会少些失望。

You have less disappointment.

生活中压力也会更小。

You have less stress in your life.

愿望可以尽情拥有，这很棒，但期望值要保持低位——这在感情关系中尤为重要。

You can have the wishes as much as you want, that's great, but expectations keep it low and in a relationship that's very important.

人们通常对伴侣抱有过高的期望，更糟的是对方对你也同样如此。

People usually have expectations that are way too high towards the other person and what's even worse, the other person towards you.

所以你必须确保这些期望值足够低，这样你才能达到甚至超越这些期望，让关系中的每个人都感到幸福。

So you have to make sure those expectations are quite low because then you you meet those expectations or exceed them exceed them and everybody is happy in the relationship.

如果开始一段感情时你的期望值过高，这段关系注定会崩溃。

If you get into a relationship and your expectations are too high, that that relationship is gonna crumble.

抱有高期望并不是一件健康的事。

It's not a healthy thing to have high expectations.

这与过度自信的问题紧密相连。

This is married to that problem with the overconfidence.

这是同一种心理回路——期望与过度自信。

It's it's it's the same mental circuit, the expectations and the overconfidence.

人生最好保持低期望值。

It's better to go with low expectations through life.

但同时依然全力以赴。

And then do do still the best.

我的意思是，尽你所能做到最好，然后收获意外之喜。

I mean, do the best you can and then be and then be positively surprised.

我试图以零期望的心态面对生活。

I try to go through life with zero expectations.

这应该就是最终境界了。

So that would be the end state.

那才是智者所为。

That would be the wise person.

我还没达到那种境界，但我相信智者会以零期望面对生活。

I'm not there yet, but the wise person, I believe, goes to life with zero expectations.

当然，你总是会全力以赴。

You always give, of course, your best.

是的。

Yes.

你静观其变。

You see what comes out.

很多事情都超出你的掌控。

A lot of it is outside of your control.

你怀抱最好的希望。

You hope for the best.

尽你所能。

You can.

你希望一切顺利。

You hope for the best.

这就是希望。

That's hope.

那就是云。

That's the clouds.

你可以期待最好的结果，然后看看会发生什么。

You can hope for the best, and you see what comes out.

但要尝试以零期待的心态面对生活。

But try to go through life with zero expectations.

那实际上会是我理想的存在状态。

That will actually be my ideal state of being.

我还没达到那种境界。

I'm not there yet.

我在工作

I'm working

正在努力中。

on it.

我很喜欢这个观点。

I love that.

我很喜欢这个观点。

I love that.

而且你在书中阐述的方式，确实也让我们停下脚步重新思考——或许我们一直在生活中随波逐流，甚至从未停下来想想：这真的对我们有益吗？

And and the way you framed it in this book, it really also gets us to, stop in our tracks to rethink perhaps the way we have been cruising through life without even pausing to think, does this really serve us or benefit us?

但你书中写的另一个观点我觉得有些挑衅性：停止阅读新闻。

But the other thing that you wrote in your book, which I think is somewhat provocative, is stop reading the news.

在一个把保持消息灵通等同于负责任公民或知识渊博的世界里，你为什么主张完全切断新闻来源？

And in a world where staying informed is often equated with responsible citizenship or being knowledgeable, Why do you advocate for cutting out news entirely?

不是减少，而是彻底切断。

Not even like decreasing, but entirely cut it out.

是的。

Yeah.

新闻在很多方面都存在诸多问题，为此我专门写了一本书，书名叫《停止阅读新闻》。

So news is problem in in in in a lot of different ways, and I've written a book about this since called stop reading the news.

这就是那本书的标题。

That's the title of the book.

我过去曾是个新闻瘾君子，那是很久很久以前的事了。

So I was a news junkie in the past, a long, long time ago.

后来我终于意识到，自己已经消费了成千上万条新闻资讯。

And then, eventually, I realized that, you know, I've consumed these thousands and thousands and thousands of pieces of news.

我问了自己两个问题。

I asked myself two questions.

第一个问题是：相比没看过某条新闻，阅读后是否让我能为自己的生活、公司、朋友或人际关系做出更好决策？

Question number one is do I make better decisions for my life or my company or my friends or in the relationship if I have if I've read a piece of news as opposed to not having that piece of news.

在我消费过的数万条新闻中，我找不出

And I couldn't think of one piece of news that really helped me make better decisions for my life out of these tens of thousands of news pieces that I've consumed.

另一个问题是：至少通过消费这数万条新闻，我是否对世界有了更深刻的认识？我必须承认并没有。当我阅读深入探讨某个主题的书籍、真正长篇的专题文章，或是与真正了解该领域的专家交流时，我才能学到东西并更好地理解世界。但消费新闻只会让你产生更了解世界的错觉。

And the other question that I ask myself is at least do I understand the world better by having consumed these tens of thousands of news pieces and also there I have had to say no I don't really understand the world better, I understand the world better if I read a book that really goes deep into subject or if I long if I read really long articles which is not news but these are really long long pieces or if I talk to people who really know, to experts or people who really know the subject, Then I I learned something and I understand the world better but consuming news gives you the illusion that you understand the world better.

它给你一种知识错觉，但你并没有真正更好地理解这个世界。

It gives you the illusion of knowledge but you don't really understand the world better.

所以我决定完全戒掉新闻，而且我已经坚持这样做了十多年。

So I decided to cut out the news completely And I've done this for for more than ten years.

我没有再消费新闻。

I hadn't consumed news.

现在由于我在不同层面上，有时需要主持一些与地缘政治专家的对话。

Now I now I because I on a on a different level, I sometimes have to moderate a couple of of talks with experts in geopolitics.

我每天只读大约五分钟的新闻，而且严格控制在五分钟以内，不会更多。

I'm I'm reading about five minutes news per day, but I I I keep it at five minutes, not more.

最低限度。

Minimum.

绝对的最低限度，但这对身体也健康得多。

Absolute minimum, but it's much healthier also for the body.

新闻会引发压力反应，因为大多数新闻都是负面的。

News gives you a stress reaction because most news are negative.

这是有意为之的。

That's deliberate.

世界并非80%都是负面的，是的。

The world is not negative to 80% and Yeah.

只有20%是积极的。

Only 20% positive.

世界上其实有很多积极的事情。

There are just there's a lot of positive things out there in the world.

但当你消费新闻时，你会觉得世界主要是负面的。

But then when you consume news, you have the impression that the world is mostly negative.

这里有战争，那里有特朗普加征关税，还有无数糟糕的事情。

There's a war here, there is tariffs coming from Donald Trump, but there's, you know, million bad things.

那并不是真实的世界。

That's not the world.

那是新闻媒体塑造的，因为大脑容易被负面故事吸引。

That's the news media because the brain is attracted to negative stories.

我们对此反应如此迅速，媒体才能向我们兜售订阅和广告。

We jump on it much faster so the media can sell us subscriptions and advertising to it.

媒体的商业模式就是存在这种负面偏见，这在媒体术语中被称为——

It's a business model of the media to have that negativity bias, it's called in in in media terms.

这是一种负面偏见。

It's a negativity bias.

所以最好完全戒掉新闻，或者将其减少到每天五分钟。

So it's best to cut out the news or to really reduce it to five minutes per day.

你不会错过任何大事。

You will not miss anything big.

人们总是担心，如果我停止看新闻，会有意外发生且情况很糟，而我没做准备——但这种事从未发生过。

People are always afraid that, oh, if I stop reading the news, something will come around the corner and it's gonna be really bad and if I haven't prepared myself, nothing has ever happened that you didn't need.

如果真有什么重要事件发生，你也会及时从朋友那里听说。

And if something really important happens, you will hear it from your friends in due time.

我们真的很幸运能够读到你们两位的书。

We are so blessed to be able to, you know, read both of your books.