国际能源署称伊朗战争导致有史以来最大的供应中断

油价再次上涨，因为伊朗袭击了波斯湾的多艘油轮。

Oil rallies yet again as Iran strikes several tankers in the Persian Gulf.

此外，特朗普总统重返关税制定桌，针对多个主要出口国，并且一项新研究发现，人工智能并未减轻工作负担，恰恰相反。

Plus, president Trump returns to the tariff drawing board targeting a number of big exporters, and a new study finds that AI isn't lightening workloads quite the opposite.

因此，结论是人工智能并没有像许多人预期的那样带来如此高的效率。

And so basically, the conclusion was that AI doesn't necessarily create as much efficiency as many had hoped.

它实际上用更多、不同类型的工作取代了原有工作，但工作量依然增加了。

What it instead does is replaces that with even more work and different kinds of work, but more work nonetheless.

今天是3月12日，星期四。

It's Thursday, March 12.

我是《华尔街日报》的卢克·瓦加斯，以下是《华尔街日报新闻》晨间版，为您带来今天影响全球的头条新闻和商业动态。

I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of WSJ News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

根据国际能源署的说法，中东战争造成了有史以来对石油市场最大的冲击。

The war in The Middle East is causing the biggest disruption to oil markets ever seen according to the International Energy Agency.

国际能源署今早下调了石油供应预测，称今年全球石油供应预计仅增长每日110万桶，远低于此前预期的每日240万桶。

The IEA this morning slashed its forecasts for oil supplies, saying it now expects supply to grow by just 1,100,000 barrels a day this year, a dramatic cut from the 2,400,000 daily barrels expected previously.

所有供应增长现在都被预期来自石油输出国组织plus联盟之外，因为冲突迫使主要海湾产油国削减产量，并实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡。

All supply growth is now expected to come from outside of the OPEC plus alliance with the conflict forcing major Gulf producers to curb output and effectively shutting the Strait Of Hormuz.

昨晚，原油价格突破每桶100美元，起因是伊朗袭击了三艘试图通过该水道的货船，并用导弹击中了两艘位于伊拉克水域的油轮。

Overnight, crude prices topped a $100 a barrel after Iran attacked three cargo ships trying to transit the waterway and hit two oil tankers in Iraqi waters with projectiles.

对国际航运的威胁已不再局限于波斯湾。

And the threat to international shipping isn't confined to the Persian Gulf any longer.

伊朗媒体报道称，也门的胡塞叛军可能加入对抗美国及其盟友的战斗，并迫使关闭阿拉伯半岛最南端的一条狭窄航道。

Iranian media is reporting that Houthi rebels in Yemen could join the fight against The US and its partners and force the closure of a narrow passage at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.

曼德海峡是全球第四大航运咽喉要道，船只可通过红海进入苏伊士运河。

The Bab El Mandeb Strait is the world's fourth largest shipping choke point and allows vessels to access the Suez Canal via the Red Sea.

与此同时，在战争爆发第十三天，经济上的赢家与输家正逐渐明朗。

Meanwhile, thirteen days into the war, the economic winners and losers are coming into focus.

这是记者切莉西·杜拉尼一直在计算的内容。

It's something reporter Chelsey Dulaney has been doing the math on.

切莉西，我想我们得先从能源谈起。

Chelsey, I think we've gotta start by talking about energy first.

之前我们提到过每桶原油的价格，但那并不是消费者在加油站实际支付的价格。

Earlier, we quoted the barrel price of oil, but that's not what people are paying at the pump.

请具体告诉我们目前在美国的情况如何。

Tell us what we're seeing there specifically in The US so far.

中东冲突迅速传导至美国消费者的汽油价格。

The conflict in The Middle East has very quickly filtered through into gas prices at the pump for Americans.

在美国各地，自伊朗发动袭击以来，汽油价格已上涨了约20%。

Across The US, gas prices have risen about 20% since the attacks on Iran.

但如果你查看具体各州，涨幅要剧烈得多。

But if you look at specific states, the move has been much more dramatic.

例如，在加利福尼亚州，汽油价格已接近每加仑5.40美元。

For example, in California, gas prices are nearly at $5.40.

在一些地区，价格会低一些，比如中西部部分地区。

In some areas, it's less than that, parts of the Midwest.

但这种影响正迅速渗透到人们的日常生活中，并带来巨大的经济后果——你花在汽油上的钱越多，可用于其他消费的钱就越少。

But this is very quickly filtering through into people's everyday lives, and that has a big economic consequence because the more you spend on gasoline, the less you have to spend elsewhere.

对家庭来说是坏消息，对其他依赖燃料成本的企业也是如此。

Bad news for households and then probably other businesses reliant on fuel costs as well.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，对许多行业来说，能源价格是一个巨大的投入成本。

I mean, for companies, energy prices are a huge input for a lot of industries.

因此，如果你考虑旅游运营商、游轮公司、航空公司，它们都因中东冲突而受到严重打击。

So if you think about tourism operators, cruise lines, airlines, they have been hit pretty hard by the conflict in The Middle East.

这会迅速推高它们的价格。

It'll very quickly raise their prices.

我们已经看到机票价格在上涨。

We're already seeing airfares going up.

对于那些在生产中大量使用能源的企业，比如钢铁公司和工业领域的企业，这也产生了重大影响。

For companies that use a lot of energy for production, steel companies, companies in the industrial sector, this also has a big impact.

这场冲突持续的时间越长，其影响就越广泛地渗透到各个领域。

The longer this goes on, the more it filters through to everything.

因此，我们生活中几乎所有的物品都是通过船运或卡车运输到我们这里的。

So pretty much everything we have in our lives is transported to us by ship, by truck.

只要燃料价格上涨，所有这些商品的价格都会上涨。

All of those prices go up whenever fuel prices go up.

好的。

Okay.

所以这就是我们的通胀风险。

So there's our inflationary risk.

除了美国之外，能源领域其他受损方也毫不意外。

Beyond The US, there are other losers on the energy front unsurprisingly as well.

是的。

Yes.

世界上大多数国家都会因为这场危机而经历通胀上升，尤其是像日本这样依赖进口的国家。

Most of the world will see inflation rise because of this, especially import dependent countries like Japan.

中国是全球最大的原油进口国。

China is the largest crude importer in the world.

他们正在经历更高的能源价格。

They're seeing higher energy prices.

特别是欧洲，其能源供应的约60%依赖进口。

Europe, in particular, depends quite a lot on imported energy for about 60% of its energy supply.

因此，这些国家都面临能源价格上涨，这预计将推高通胀并抑制经济增长。

So all of these countries are seeing energy prices go up, and that is expected to drive up inflation, and that is expected to contract growth.

海湾地区也受到严重冲击，尽管在冲突中，其能源出口国的地位曾为他们提供了一些缓冲。

The Gulf, particularly hard hit as well, even though often in conflicts, their energy exporting status has been a bit of a cushion for them.

海湾地区是全球受此影响最严重的地区，这并不令人意外。

It's probably no surprise that The Gulf is the most exposed part of the world to this.

显然，海湾地区的许多国家是主要的能源出口国，但由于霍尔木兹海峡的船只频繁遭到袭击，他们实际上无法出口石油。

Obviously, a lot of these countries in The Gulf are major energy exporters, but they can't actually sell it because the ships are getting attacked in the Strait Of Hormuz.

他们的设施也遭到袭击。

Their facilities are getting attacked.

因此，许多国家已经停产或大幅减产，这意味着他们根本无法从这场能源价格上涨中获益。

So a lot of them have shut down production or drastically pared it back, which means they actually can't capitalize on this rise in energy prices at all.

这将对海湾国家的经济产生影响。

And this will have an economic impact for economies in The Gulf.

如果这场战争持续时间较短，根据资本经济公司的预测，今年这些国家的经济可能会收缩约2%。

If this war is brief, they could see their economies contract by about 2% this year according to capital economics.

但如果战争持续下去，而这种情况越来越可能成为现实，收缩幅度可能达到15%，这相当惊人。

But if this drags on, which increasingly looks like it will, that could move to a 15% contraction, which is quite dramatic.

海湾地区另一个非常脆弱的领域是旅游业。

And one of the other areas where The Gulf is very vulnerable is on tourism.

目前，旅游业已经完全停滞。

Right now, that's ground to halt.

航班已被取消。

Flights have been canceled.

因此，旅游经济机构预计，今年前往中东的国际游客人数可能下降多达30%。

And so tourism economics is now expecting that international visitors to The Middle East could fall by as much as 30% this year.

这将造成巨大的收入损失。

And that would be a huge loss of revenue.

他们表示，这些经济体将损失约560亿美元的收入。

They say about $56,000,000,000 in lost revenue for these economies.

切丽西，至于赢家，我一时想不出明显的，但我知道你发现了一些。

Chelsey, as for winners here, none immediately come to mind, but I know you've found a few.

是的。

Yeah.

所以有几个地方可能会受益。

So there are a couple places that stand to win.

最明显的是俄罗斯，它一直被排除在全球能源贸易之外。

The most obvious one is Russia, which has been sort of shut out of global energy trade.

他们有一些买家，比如中国和印度，但由于其他主要石油供应国出现诸多中断，俄罗斯重新回到了人们的视野。

They've had some buyers like China and India, but the fact that there are so many disruptions from other major oil suppliers has really put Russia back on the map.

现在人们都想购买他们的石油。

People wanna buy their oil now.

对俄罗斯而言，这意味着他们能获得更多的收入来资助在乌克兰的战争。

And for Russia, that means they're bringing in a lot more revenue to fund the war in Ukraine.

因此，分析师通常估计，俄罗斯需要油价维持在每桶59美元左右才能实现预算平衡。

So analysts usually estimate that Russia needs oil to be about $59 a barrel to balance its budget.

而现在油价远高于此水平。

It's far above that now.

所以对俄罗斯来说，这是一次巨大的胜利。

So for Russia, this has been a big win.

一些拉丁美洲经济体，特别是委内瑞拉，正重新融入全球石油贸易，开始增加产量，也可能从中受益；加拿大和挪威也可能出现一定程度的增长影响。

Some of the Latin American economies, Venezuela in particular, which is kind of also being reintegrated into the global oil trade, starting to increase production again, could benefit Canada, probably see a bit of a growth impact Norway as well.

但许多这些经济体也会经历一定程度的通胀，因为即使它们自身生产大量能源，全球市场仍相互关联。

But a lot of these economies as well will see a little bit of inflation because even though they produce a lot of energy themselves, it's still a global market.

因此，它们的加油站油价和机票等费用仍会上涨。

So they still will also see prices rise at the pump and higher prices for things like airfare.

我刚刚采访了《华尔街日报》的记者切莉西·杜拉尼。

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporter, Chelsey Dulaney.

切莉西，一如既往，谢谢你的分享。

Chelsey, thanks as always.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

我们想知道能源和大宗商品价格的波动如何影响您或您的业务。

And we wanna know how volatile energy and commodity prices are affecting you or your business.

您是否在重新考虑您的计划？

Are you rethinking your plans?

您的利润是否受到影响？

Is your bottom line being impacted?

那您的定价策略呢？

And what about your pricing strategy?

请通过发送语音留言至 wnpod@wsj.com，或拨打 (212) 416-4328 留言告诉我们您的看法。

Let us know by sending a voice note to wnpod@wsj.com or by leaving us a voice mail at (212) 416-4328.

请务必注明您的姓名和所在地区，以便我们在节目中使用您的评论。

Just make sure to include your name and your location so we can use your comments on the show.

德克萨斯州共和党参议员约翰·科宁支持总统特朗普废除议事阻挠规则的呼吁，该规则要求至少60票才能推进大多数立法。

Texas Republican senator John Cornyn is backing president Trump's call to eliminate the filibuster rule requiring 60 votes to advance most legislation.

特朗普一直在敦促参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩寻找方法通过《拯救美国法案》，该法案将在全国范围内实施严格的选民身份证明要求，特朗普称这对共和党在中期选举中取得成功至关重要。

Trump has been pushing senate majority leader John Thune to find a way to pass the Save America Act, which would impose strict new voter ID requirements nationwide in which Trump has called critical to GOP success in the midterms.

参议院有53名共和党人，而只需51票就能改变阻挠议事规则。

The senate has 53 Republicans, and it would take just 51 to change the filibuster rule.

然而，至少有四位共和党参议员公开表示反对这一举措，另外两位——西弗吉尼亚州的谢莉·摩尔·卡皮托和怀俄明州的辛西娅·卢米斯——昨天也表达了对这一举动的担忧。

However, at least four GOP senators have publicly said they oppose such a move, and two others, West Virginia's Shelley Moore Capito and Wyoming's Cynthia Loomis voiced their concerns about the move yesterday.

我们许多人并不认为应该废除阻挠议事规则，因为它保护了少数派的权利，而总有一天我们会重回少数派。

Many of us, don't believe that, we should undo the filibuster, because it holds the rights of the minority, and and one day we'll be back in the minority.

它还保护了较小的农村州，使其免受更大、更城市化地区的压倒性影响。

It also protects smaller rural states from being overwhelmed, by the larger, more urban areas.

科宁在这一问题上的立场转变，正值他面临一场艰难的初选决选，而特朗普至今尚未对该选情表态支持。

Cornyn's reversal on the issue comes as he faces a tough primary runoff in which Trump has yet to make an endorsement.

特朗普政府已宣布启动新的第301条款调查，以取代最高法院裁定为非法的关税措施。

The Trump administration has announced new section three zero one tariff investigations to replace the duties that the supreme court deemed illegal.

一项调查针对依赖出口的国家的工业产能过剩问题，另一项则预计将调查数十个国家的强迫劳动问题。

One probe targets industrial overcapacity from export reliant countries, while the other is expected to investigate forced labor regulations in dozens of nations.

但正如《华尔街日报》的杰森·道格拉斯所解释的，这些调查实际上为亚洲经济体带来了一些亟需的确定性。

But as the journal's Jason Douglas explains, the probes actually provide some much needed certainty for Asian economies.

因此，包括中国、日本和印度在内的多个主要亚洲经济体正在接受调查。

So several major Asian economies are being investigated, including China, including Japan, and India.

这些经济体都对美国拥有巨大的贸易顺差，它们通过牺牲国内经济来扩大生产，从而导致出口激增，压垮了世界其他地区的制造业。

So the idea that these economies, all of which have these big trade surpluses with The United States, are boosting production production at the expense of their domestic economies, and that creates a flood of exports that is overwhelming manufacturing elsewhere in the world.

这对中国提出的指控并不陌生。

And this is a very familiar charge against China.

这项新的调查为特朗普政府提供了一点额外的筹码，尤其是在特朗普计划于北京与习近平举行峰会之前。

This new investigation does give the Trump administration maybe just a little bit of extra leverage as ahead of Trump's planned summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing.

我认为，这些调查在亚洲并没有引起太大惊讶。

I think these investigations weren't greeted with a huge deal of surprise in Asia.

毕竟，这是特朗普政府试图在最高法院推翻所谓的IEAPA关税后，部分重建原有关税体系的一种方式。

This is after all a way for the Trump administration to try and recreate to some extent the tariff regime that they had before the Supreme Court struck down the so called IEAPA tariffs.

因此，我认为这里的经济体，尤其是那些有贸易协定的国家，正在寻求一种与之前贸易协定时期完全相同的做法。

So I think what economies here are looking for, particularly those that have a trade deal, is something that looks just like what they had when they had the trade deal.

美国贸易代表詹姆斯on·格里尔旨在七月中旬完成这些调查。

US trade representative Jameson Greer aims to complete the probes by mid July.

与此同时，特斯拉正押注其数年来首款新车，计划今年在得克萨斯工厂生产31,000辆无人驾驶网约车。

Meanwhile, Tesla is betting big on its first new car in years, aiming to produce 31,000 driverless cybercabs at its Texas factory this year.

特斯拉记者贝基·彼得森表示，这款完全依赖自动驾驶软件运行的车辆，对首席执行官埃隆·马斯克而言是一次高风险的转型，也对美国安全监管机构构成了重大挑战。

Tesla reporter, Becky Peterson, says the vehicle, which is designed to run exclusively on autonomous software, represents a high stakes pivot for CEO Elon Musk and a major challenge for US safety regulators.

在X平台上，马斯克表示，特斯拉将在今年年底前以低于3万美元的价格向客户出售一辆网约车。

On X, Musk has said that Tesla will sell a cyber cab to a customer for less than $30,000 the end of the year.

不过，更密切关注这家公司的人都对这一时间表持怀疑态度。

That said, people who follow the company more closely are skeptical about the timeline.

我采访了一些分析师，他们表示，实际上并不预期特斯拉在多年内会将网约车出售给任何客户，除了其自身的网约车服务。

I spoke with analysts who say they really don't expect Tesla to sell cyber cabs to anyone but its own ride hailing service for many years.

部分原因在于消费者的习惯。

Part of that is consumer habits.

部分原因则在于监管因素。

Some of that is regulatory.

目前，美国的安全法规要求汽车制造商必须获得豁免，才能生产没有侧后视镜等某些安全装置的车辆，且产量被限制在每年2500辆以内。

US safety regulations currently require car companies to get exemptions in order to make vehicles that don't have certain safety measures like side mirrors, and they're capped at making just 2,500 units.

这与马斯克声称特斯拉每年将生产200万辆自动驾驶出租车的目标相去甚远。

So this is far shy of the 2,000,000 cybercabs a Musk has said that Tesla will make each year.

最后，人工智能的一大承诺是它将让白领员工从繁琐工作中解放出来，专注于更高层次的创造性工作。

And finally, one of AI's great promises is that it will free up white collar workers to do more high level creative work.

但职场记者雷·史密斯表示，来自生产力追踪软件公司ActiveTrack的最新数据显示，事实恰恰相反——该机构分析了AI对16万名员工的影响后发现。

But workplace reporter Ray Smith says that new data from productivity tracking software company ActiveTrack shows the opposite is happening after it looked at how AI impacted a 160,000 people.

他们研究了人们在工作中开始使用这些工具前后180天的数字活动情况。

They looked at digital activity 180 before and after people started using these tools on the job.

有趣的是，人们花在电子邮件、即时消息甚至聊天应用上的时间翻了一倍多。

And it's interesting because the time they spent on things like email and messaging and even chat apps, that more than doubled.

就连使用业务管理工具的时间也增加了。

And even things like using business management tools, that rose.

相比之下，人们用于专注工作的时长却减少了。

And the amount of time that people devoted to, like, focus work, in contrast, declined.

而加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院正在进行的另一项研究也证实了这一点，发现使用AI工具的人工作强度增加了。

And that is backed up by another study underway at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business, which found that work has intensified for people using AI tools.

因此，员工在完成原本借助AI的工作后，要么工作节奏更快了，要么承担了更广泛的任务。

And so employees were either working at faster paces or taking on broader scopes of tasks after they had done their original work, if you will, with AI.

他们只是发现了更多可做的工作，有时甚至涉及超出其岗位职责范围的内容。

They just found more work to do, and sometimes it involved work that was beyond their job descriptions.

你知道，理想的目标是AI能让我们腾出时间去做更多创造性、更有吸引力或更深入思考的工作。

You know, the dream goal is AI will free us up to do more creative work or engaging work or more thoughtful work.

但这项研究显示，这一点尚未真正实现。

And this study has shown that that's not quite happening yet.

因此，公司和员工需要找到一种方法，让AI真正解放他们，去做更多创造性和有吸引力的工作，而不是仅仅做更多常规性的工作。

And so companies and employees need to figure out a way to make AI truly free them up to do more creative and engaging work rather than just more run of the mill work.

以上就是本周四早晨的《今日新闻》全部内容。

And that's it for What's News for this Thursday morning.

本期节目由哈蒂·莫耶和丹尼尔·巴赫制作。

Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer and Daniel Bach.

我们的监制是桑德拉·基尔霍夫，我是《华尔街日报》的卢克·瓦加斯。

Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff, and I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal.

我们今晚会带着新节目回来。

We will be back tonight with a new show.

在那之前，感谢收听。

Until then, thanks for listening.