伊朗反击，中东冲突扩大

伊朗在最高领袖被杀后展开反击。

Iran strikes back following the killing of its supreme leader.

随着冲突在中东地区蔓延，我们将带来最新进展。

We'll get the latest as conflict spreads across The Middle East.

目前战斗仍在全力进行，并将持续到我们所有目标达成为止。

Combat operations continue at this time in full force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved.

此外，我们将分析经济影响，因为战斗导致油价飙升并扰乱了全球供应链。

Plus, we'll take a look at the economic impact as fighting sends oil prices surging and upends global supply chains.

今天是3月2日，星期一。

It's Monday, March 2.

我是《华尔街日报》的卢克·瓦加斯，以下是今日《今日要闻》晨间版，为您呈现影响您世界的头条新闻和商业动态。

I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动大规模军事行动48小时后，双方仍在持续作战。

Forty eight hours after launching major combat operations against Iran, The US and Israel are keeping up the fight.

我们报道，他们已共同在伊朗境内打击了2000多个目标。

We report that they have collectively struck more than 2,000 targets inside Iran.

昨晚讲话时，特朗普总统承诺将继续推进，称美国将为上周末阵亡的三名美军士兵复仇。

And speaking last night, president Trump pledged to push on, saying The US would avenge the death of three American troops killed over the weekend.

我们为那些为国家做出最终牺牲的真正美国爱国者哀悼，同时继续他们为之献出生命的正义使命。

We grieve for the true American patriots who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation even as we continue the righteous mission for which they gave their lives.

与此同时，美国并非唯一遭受攻击的国家，以色列、多个海湾国家，甚至拥有英国军事基地的地中海岛屿塞浦路斯，也成为了伊朗反击的目标。

Meanwhile, The US is far from alone in coming under fire as Israel, a number of Gulf states, and even the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, home to a British military base, find themselves on the receiving end of Iranian counterattacks.

现在请来《华尔街日报》中东编辑安德鲁·道威尔，为我们解读当前局势。

Here to make sense of what's going on is Wall Street Journal Middle East editor Andrew Dowell.

德鲁，美军在伊朗境内打击了2000个目标。

Drew, 2,000 targets struck within Iran.

我们知道这些目标具体是什么吗？

Do we know what those are?

我们能开始梳理出究竟达成了哪些成果吗？

Can we start to sort through what has actually been achieved here?

我们如何衡量这场行动的进展？

How are we measuring progress in this campaign?

从外部很难衡量这种进展，因为你们设定的目标非常广泛且难以追踪。

It's difficult from the outside to measure that progress just because the goals that you've set are pretty expansive and difficult to track.

因此，政府明确表示，要确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器。

So the administration's made clear they wanna make sure that Iran doesn't ever get a nuclear weapon.

他们还谈到限制伊朗弹道导弹的生产，甚至明确表示希望伊朗人民起义推翻政权。

They've also talked about limiting their production of ballistic missiles and even made clear that they want the people of Iran to rise up and overthrow the regime.

因此，美国和以色列在冲突初期对伊朗领导层发动了猛烈打击。

So The US and Israel went hard at Iran's leadership at the beginning of the conflict.

他们击杀了最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊以及多名高级军事和政治人物。

They've killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei and a number of other top military and political figures.

他们袭击了全国多地的导弹基地。

They've hit missile sites around the country.

他们声称击沉了多艘伊朗海军舰艇，并以越来越猛烈的攻势打击政权的控制结构，比如伊斯兰革命卫队及其他维持社会秩序所需的安全服务机构。

They've claimed to have sunk a number of Iranian naval ships, and they've been pounding away with sort of increasing ferocity on the structures of the regime's control, namely, like, the IRGC and other security services facilities that are needed to keep the population in line.

德鲁，我们还应该补充一点：除了这些目标外，美联社报道称，根据伊朗红新月会的数据，截至目前，美国和以色列的袭击已在伊朗造成555人死亡。

Drew, we should probably add that in addition to those targets, the Associated Press is reporting that according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, these attacks from The US and Israel so far have killed five hundred and fifty five people in Iran.

我们不知道其中有多少是军人，多少是平民，但这也是一个需要考虑的因素。

We don't know how many of those are are members of the military versus civilians, but that's a factor here as well.

现在我们来谈谈伊朗是如何反击的。

Let's talk now about how Iran is fighting back.

我们已经看到使用无人机和导弹对军事基地发动袭击，甚至也针对了民用设施，如酒店、机场，这些袭击发生在迪拜、阿布扎比等地，现在已有数十万平民被卷入其中。

We have seen attacks using drones and missiles against military bases, but also civilian facilities, hotels, airports, and and these attacks occurring in places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi and now affecting hundreds of thousands of civilians who are all getting caught up in this.

是的。

Yeah.

伊朗在冲突开始前就明确表示，即使受到轻微攻击，也会立即使冲突区域化，而他们正在兑现这一承诺。

Iran had made clear going into this that if they were attacked even in a small way that they would immediately regionalize the conflict, and they're delivering on that.

特别是阿联酋，遭受了猛烈的轰炸。

The UAE, in particular, has come under a heavy bombardment.

昨晚有人称，仅在冲突头36小时内，就有大约700架无人机和导弹飞向阿联酋。

Last night, they were saying some maybe 700 drones and missiles have been fired at The UAE in just the first thirty six hours of conflict.

数十至数百枚更多导弹已射向科威特和巴林。

Dozens to hundreds more have been fired at Kuwait, Bahrain.

就连阿曼也几次遭到袭击，甚至远至塞浦路斯。

Even Oman got hit a couple of times and then as far away as Cyprus.

从袭击目标的类型来看，显然不仅限于军事目标。

And it seems clear from the types of targeting that it's not just military targets.

美国在许多这些地方都有军事基地，但他们的目标还包括文化象征，比如迪拜的布尔贾阿拉伯大楼、迪拜的棕榈岛，以及 elsewhere 的酒店和其他经济基础设施。

The US does have military bases in a lot of these places, but, yeah, they're also aiming at cultural symbols like the Bourdjal Arab Building in Dubai, the palm in Dubai, and hotels and and other economic infrastructure elsewhere.

这对海湾地区来说确实是个巨大的问题。

So it's it's an enormous problem for The Gulf, honestly.

这些国家，尤其是阿联酋，把自己打造成了动荡暴力的中东地区中的一片绿洲。

These countries, particularly The UAE, have built themselves as an oasis, calm in the middle of, you know, a very turbulent and violent Middle East.

阿联酋是全球的商业枢纽。

The UAE is a commercial hub for the world.

迪拜是一座高度国际化的城市。

Dubai is a, you know, a massively international city.

迪拜机场是全球国际旅客最繁忙的机场，也是全球第二繁忙的机场，而它已经遭到袭击。

The airport is the busiest one in the world for international travelers, second busiest in the world, period, and it's been hit.

而且人口中的绝大多数是外籍人士。

And overwhelming percentage of the population is expatriate.

因此，这些国家面临着真实的风险：人们的看法可能改变，声誉可能受损，它们可能会被视作像中东许多地区一样需要回避的地方，而不是吸引人们前来并带来资金的目的地。

So there's a real risk to these countries that people's opinions could change, their reputation could change, and they could start being seen like a lot of the Middle East as a place to be avoided as opposed to one to flock to and bring money to.

你之前提到，伊朗将战火引向这些国家的意图可能是为了尽快结束这场冲突，但至少我们的首席驻外记者雅罗斯拉夫·特拉维莫夫在夜间报道中指出，这可能产生相反的效果——反而加深这些国家反击伊朗的决心，或许能一举彻底解决这个麻烦。

You indicated earlier the intention here bringing the fight to these countries may be an effort on Iran's part to draw this to a close, but at least our chief foreign correspondent, Yaroslav Travimov, reporting sort of overnight, perhaps it could have the opposite effect, kind of deepening the resolve of these countries to fight back against Iran, maybe put this nuisance to bed once and for all.

这有可能吗？

Is that possible?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为他确实抓住了关键点。

I think he's definitely onto something there.

你知道，既然伊朗已经表现出愿意攻击海湾地区，而且即便海湾国家公开拒绝美国使用其基地和领空来发动袭击，伊朗仍这么做了，这些国家现在很可能会认为：这是一个无法容忍的威胁，如果持续下去，将对它们的经济和经济计划构成生存性威胁。

You know, now that Iran has shown a willingness to attack The Gulf and now that Iran has shown a willingness to do that even though The Gulf publicly denied The US access to its bases and airspace in order to conduct the attack, they're very likely thinking now that, this is a threat that they can't live with and that will pose an existential threat to their own economies and economic plans if it persists.

有很多事情值得关注，但这还不是全部，因为我们最终必须提到，伊朗在黎巴嫩的代理人真主党与以色列之间的冲突正在迅速升级。

A lot to watch, and that's not all of it, because we finally have to mention there is now a battle rapidly escalating between Iran's proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel.

自2024年以来，双方一直维持着一项非常脆弱的停火协议，但现在看来，这层薄纱彻底破裂，战斗正在迅速升级。

A very fragile ceasefire had been in place between those two sides dating back to the 2024, and now it seems the lid is is fully come off and fighting picking up very rapidly there.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

我的意思是，停火协议虽然存在，但基本上只是名义上的，而且一直非常偏向一方。

I mean, the ceasefire has existed, but it's only really been a ceasefire in name, and and it's been pretty one-sided.

在那段时间里，以色列军队已对黎巴嫩境内的真主党目标——或他们声称的真主党目标——发动了上千次袭击。

Israel's military has attacked Hezbollah targets or what they've said is Hezbollah targets in Lebanon more than a thousand times during that period.

黎巴嫩军队一直在努力解除真主党的武装，但成效有限；而以色列则一直在等待机会重返并彻底解决问题，而真主党正好给了他们这样一个契机。

The Lebanese army has been working to disarm Hezbollah with limited success, and Israel has been sort of waiting for a chance to go back in and finish the job, and Hezbollah just gave them what.

作为与伊朗结盟的组织，真主党内部承受着巨大压力，必须对最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的遇刺做出回应，而他们确实这么做了。

So Hezbollah, as a group aligned with Iran, is under a lot of pressure internally to react, especially to the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and they have.

但他们现在也让自己暴露在以色列的重大攻击之下。

But they've opened themselves up now to a pretty significant attack by Israel.

安德鲁·道尔是《华尔街日报》的中东编辑。

Andrew Dowell is The Wall Street Journal's Middle East editor.

我觉得随着本周的推进，我们还会再与你连线。

I have a feeling we'll be back on with you as the week progresses.

德鲁，非常感谢你提供的更新。

Drew, thank you so much for the update.

谢谢。

Thanks.

好了，远离战场，这场冲突也在伊朗引发重大的政治变革。

Well, away from the battlefield, this conflict is also leading to major political changes in Iran.

记者苏娜·拉斯穆森一直在追踪哪些伊朗领导人被美以空袭清除，现在他加入我们，带来更多信息。

Journal correspondent Suna Rasmussen has been monitoring who in the Iranian leadership has been taken out by these US and Israeli strikes, and he joins me now with more.

苏娜，阿亚图拉已经去世了。

Suna, the Ayatollah is dead.

周六最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的遇害，无疑对伊朗的统治结构造成了沉重打击。

The killing of the supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, definitely dealing a blow to Iran's ruling structure.

而且，是的，我觉得现在很多人都在问，这是否真的带来了任何改变。

And, yeah, I think a lot of people are asking at this point if this is actually changing anything.

你有什么看法？

What can you say?

伊朗当局对此有何反应？

How is the Iranian establishment reacting here?

我认为，说卡赫梅尼的遇害没有带来任何改变，未免太过轻率。

I think it would be a bit cavalier to say that the killing of Khamenei doesn't change anything.

但伊朗体制的设计本就不依赖于某一个人，即使像卡赫梅尼这样的最高领袖，对所有国家安全事务拥有最终决定权。

But the Iranian system has been built to sort of not rely on one person, even if that person like Khamenei, like the supreme leader, has the final say on all matters of national security.

他总是身边围绕着大量顾问，并将决策权下放给周围许多人——包括军事指挥官和政治文职官员——这或许正是为这种局面提前做的准备。

He always surrounded himself with a lot of advisers and relegated decision making to a lot of people around him, military commanders, but also political civilian officials, and probably in preparation for something like this.

我的意思是，我们是否看到事情正有序进行？还是说，有迹象表明出现了某种不稳定的权力真空，可能有人会趁机填补？

I mean, are we seeing signs that this is proceeding in an orderly fashion, or are there, I don't know, indications of of some sort of destabilizing power vacuum that someone else might try to sweep into.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，这一切正在按照宪法规定进行，考虑到当前的情况，可以说是有条不紊的。

Actually, it's it's happening according to the constitution in what I guess you would call an orderly fashion considering the circumstances.

第一步是成立一个三人委员会，该委员会由总统、司法首长以及被称为监护委员会的一名成员组成，而监护委员会是一个具有强大影响力的宗教学者委员会。

So the first step is to form a three man council, and that council consists of the president, the head of the judiciary, and then a member of what's known as the guardian council, which is a powerful clerical council.

这个委员会已经成立，目前担任临时领导机构。

That has been formed, and they are now sort of the interim leadership council.

接着，专家会议将选出一位新的最高领袖。

Then what's known as the assembly of experts will select a new supreme leader.

这需要多长时间？

How long that's gonna take?

我们还不知道。

We don't know.

我的意思是，我们已经看到中情局评估认为，在阿亚图拉缺席的情况下，强硬派可能会掌权。

I mean, we've we've seen the CIA had assessed that a hardliner could take power in the Ayatollah's absence.

我的意思是，我们可以说这并不是真正的政权更迭吗？

I mean, is it safe to say we're not seeing regime change per se?

政权只是在找一个人来接替阿亚图拉的位置？

The regime is just finding someone new to take the place of the Ayatollah?

我认为我们所说的政权或伊斯兰共和国的伊斯兰体系将会有所不同，因为哈梅内伊阿亚图拉权力极大，他几乎清除了所有神职竞争对手。

I think the nature of what we call the regime or the Islamic system in the Islamic Republic will be different because Ayatollah Khamenei was so powerful, and he kind of weeded out all clerical rivals.

我们应该指出，最高领袖必须是神职人员，而且必须是具有一定等级的神职人员，必须是阿亚图拉。

We should say that the supreme leader has to be a cleric, and he has to be a cleric of a certain rank as well, has to be an Ayatollah.

但目前并没有明确的继任者，这在一定程度上是刻意为之，因为他也不希望在世时有人挑战他的权威。

But there is no immediate successor here, and that is partly by design, because he also didn't want anyone to challenge his authority while he was alive.

我认为下一位最高领袖在伊朗将更多地扮演一个仪式性的角色。

I think the next supreme leader is going to to be a person that's has a much more ceremonial role in Iran.

我认为我们会看到更多幕后集体领导的模式。

I think we'll see more sort of a collective leadership working behind the scenes.

涉及的人很多，不同的机构也很多。

It's a lot of people, and it's a lot of different bodies.

这些都是神职机构。

It's clerical bodies.

还有军队，尤其是革命卫队，它是一个政治和经济上的庞然大物。

It's also the military, especially the revolutionary guard, which is a political and economic behemoth.

所有这些人，我们说的是数十万要么属于政权、要么依赖政权的人。

And all these people, we're talking hundreds of thousands of people who are either in the regime or or dependent on the regime.

所以，像我们在伊拉克看到的那种政权更迭，意味着要彻底颠覆整个体系。

So a regime change, like we saw, for example, in Iraq, that would mean uprooting this whole structure in the system.

特朗普总统昨晚表示，伊朗的整个军事指挥系统已经不复存在，并且称许多人想要投降。

President Trump said last night that Iran's entire military command is gone, adding as well that many of them want to surrender.

这些都是特朗普的话。

Those are Trump's words there.

我们有没有看到任何这样的迹象？

Do we see any indication of that?

我的意思是，仅从我们所目睹的攻击节奏来看，显然仍然有人在做出军事决策，而且还有很多。

I mean, just at least in terms of the the pace of attacks that we've been witnessing, clearly, someone is making military decisions still, and and a lot of them.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为简而言之，目前我们还没有看到任何叛逃或人员放下武器的迹象。

And I think in brief, no, we're seeing any signs of defections or people laying down arms yet.

他说得对，许多高级指挥官在这轮空袭中被击毙，去年与以色列的战争期间也有大量指挥官丧生。

He is right that a lot of senior commanders have been killed in this wave of strikes, and a lot were killed last year during the war with Israel.

我认为去年有30名顶级指挥官被杀，但这并没有减缓伊朗报复的步伐。

I think 30 top commanders were killed last year, but that didn't slow the pace of Iran's retaliation.

这并没有削弱伊朗应对以色列空袭的能力。

It didn't slow its ability to respond to Israeli strikes.

我们现在也看到了同样的情况。

And we've seen the same thing now.

伊朗正在轰炸几乎每一个海湾国家。

Iran is bombing almost every country in The Gulf.

它正在对以色列进行反击。

It's striking back against Israel.

这已经导致几名美军士兵死亡。

It's caused a few fatalities among US soldiers.

当然，问题是它能维持这种状态多久，但这套系统就是为此设计的。

Is, of course, how long it can keep this up, but it is designed.

伊朗体系的设计目标是，即使高级指挥官被击毙，也能继续作战。

The Iranian system is designed to continue fighting even if top commanders are killed.

我刚刚采访了《华尔街日报》的记者苏恩·拉斯穆森。

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal correspondent Sune Rasmussen.

苏恩，一如既往，谢谢你。

Sune, thank you as always.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

接下来，我们将关注这场冲突对市场的影响，一些投资者预测本周油价可能达到每桶100美元。

Coming up, we'll look at the market impact of the conflict as some investors predict we could see $100 a barrel oil this week.

更多今日新闻，稍后为您带来。

That and the rest of the day's news after the break.

由于对霍尔木兹海峡附近船只的袭击，全球关键能源通道之一成为焦点，油价正在飙升。

Oil prices are surging as strikes on ships in and around the Strait Of Hormuz have thrust one of the world's key choke points for energy into the crossfire.

天然气价格也大幅上涨，担心中东冲突扩大的投资者正纷纷涌向黄金和美元等避险资产。

Natural gas prices have also jumped, and investors wary of a wider conflict in The Middle East are flocking to safe havens like gold and the dollar.

伊朗官员和媒体对德黑兰是否打算封锁霍尔木兹海峡的海上交通发表了相互矛盾的声明，但道琼斯商品记者朱莉娅·佩特罗内表示，这种不确定性已经对市场造成了重大影响。

Iranian officials and media have shared conflicting statements about whether Tehran intends to block sea traffic through the strait, but Dow Jones commodities reporter Julia Petrone says the uncertainty is already having a major market impact.

每天有两千万桶原油和成品油通过这条海峡，这意味着即使是有限的延误，也会对供应链产生重大影响。

20,000,000 barrels of crude oil and refined products pass through this strait each day, meaning that even limited delays can have significant impacts for supply chains.

目前我们知道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队已警告船只避免通过这一航道，这显然促使许多船只返航并改道。

Now, what we know is that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned ships to avoid this passage, and this has obviously prompted many vessels to turn back and reroute.

不仅仅是大宗商品，包括马士基、达飞在内的集装箱航运公司，都在绕行非洲南端，试图避开苏伊士运河和霍尔木兹海峡。

It's not just commodities, container shipping companies, including Maersk, Apic Lloyd, are rerouting vessels around the southern tip of Africa, trying to avoid the Suez Canal and the Strait Of Ormus.

我们还有其他绕过霍尔木兹海峡的管道，特别是在沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。

We have other pipelines bypassing the Strait, especially in Saudi Arabia and The UAE.

然而，这些管道在海峡完全关闭的情况下无法完全弥补其运力，因此将对供应链造成重大影响。

However, these cannot fully compensate for the strait's capacity in the event of a complete closure, so that would have a major major impact for supply chains.

如果伊朗关闭海峡，多家银行预测油价可能涨至每桶100美元，这种价格飙升将推高全球汽车、发电厂等领域的燃料成本。

Should Iran shut the strait, several banks are predicting $100 a barrel oil could be in play, a type of price jump that would push up the cost of fuel for cars, power plants, and more the world over.

据报道，美军使用Anthropic的AI来协调对伊朗的空袭，违背了白宫停止与该公司合作的命令。

US forces reportedly used Anthropics AI to coordinate airstrikes in Iran, defying a White House order to stop working with the company.

这一举动凸显了该技术在军事行动中的深度嵌入，尽管五角大楼与这家科技公司之间的紧张关系日益加剧。

The move underscores how deeply embedded the technology remains in military operations in spite of growing tensions between the Pentagon and the tech firm.

Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿马德在本周末接受CBS独家采访时谈到了这一摩擦。

Anthropic CEO Dario Amade addressed the friction in an exclusive interview with CBS this weekend.

我们希望捍卫美国的价值观。

We wanted to stand up for American values.

当我们面临供应链指定和《国防生产法》的威胁时，这是政府对私营经济前所未有的干预。

And when we were threatened with supply chain designation and defense production act, are unprecedented intrusions into the private economy by the government.

我们行使了经典的宪法第一修正案权利，发声反对政府的决定。

We we exercised our classic first amendment rights to speak up and disagree with the government.

尽管被联邦列入黑名单，Anthropic的AI助手Claude仍登顶苹果应用商店，表现超越了竞争对手ChatGPT和Google Gemini。

Despite the federal blacklist, Anthropix AI bot Claude has surged the top of the Apple App Store, outperforming rivals ChatGPT and Google Gemini.

这一崛起发生在OpenAI因最近与政府合作而引发公众强烈反弹之后。

The rise follows a public backlash against OpenAI after its recent government partnership.

与此同时，英伟达表示，计划推出一款新型处理器，旨在帮助OpenAI及其他客户构建更快速、更高效的工具。

Meanwhile, NVIDIA says it plans to release a new processor designed to help OpenAI and other customers to build faster and more efficient tools.

据熟悉详情的人士称，该公司正在开发一种用于所谓推理计算的系统，这种计算方式使AI模型能够响应查询。

People familiar with the details say the company is creating a system for so called inference computing, a form of processing that allows AI models to respond to queries.

上个月，中国电动汽车销量大幅下滑，凸显了中国车企在经历了多年快速增长和激进扩张后面临的严峻前景。

And EV sales in China dropped sharply last month, highlighting a tough road ahead for Chinese carmakers after years of rapid growth and aggressive expansion.

全球最大的电动汽车制造商比亚迪的销量同比下降了41%。

Sales of BYD vehicles, the world's biggest EV seller, were down 41% from a year earlier.

这一数据发布在一年一度对中国观察家至关重要的政策盛会之前。

The data comes ahead of one of the year's biggest policy events for China watchers.

本周的全国人民代表大会预计将批准一项五年经济蓝图，该蓝图将优先推动中国成为能够与美国抗衡的技术超级大国。

This week's National People's Congress is expected to approve a five year economic blueprint that will prioritize turning China into a technological superpower that can rival The US.

以上就是本周一早间《今日要闻》的全部内容。

And that's it for What's News for this Monday morning.

本期节目由哈蒂·莫耶和丹尼尔·巴赫制作。

Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer and Daniel Bach.

我们的监制是桑德拉·基尔霍夫，我是《华尔街日报》的卢克·瓦加斯。

Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff, and I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal.

我们今晚会带着新节目回来。

We will be back tonight with a new show.

在那之前，感谢收听。

Until then, thanks for listening.