The AI Boom Is Driving GDP Growth

你一天的工作时间里，真正做事的占多少，光是找信息的占多少？

How much of your workday is actually work and how much is just hunting for information?

亚马逊Quick就是为了解决这个问题而生的。

That's the problem Amazon Quick was built to solve.

Quick是个智能工作助手，能把你的所有系统、文档、仪表盘、Salesforce、Jira、Slack和邮件全都连起来，几秒钟内给你完整答案，还能直接帮你行动。

Quick is an intelligent workplace assistant that connects all your systems, your documents, dashboards, Salesforce, Jira, Slack, email, and gives you complete answers in seconds and turns them into action.

不用切换工具，在对话里就能直接创建演示文稿、更新工单、发消息。

Create a deck, update a ticket, send a message right there in the conversation without switching tools.

这AI才真懂你干活的方式。

It's AI that actually works the way you do.

了解更多，请访问 aws.com/quick。

Learn more at aws.com/quick.

第一季度GDP的增长，主要靠企业支出拉动。

First quarter GDP gets a big boost from business spending.

有些公司特别专注投AI，正是它们在推动整个势头。

We have firms that are extremely focused on AI investment, and they're driving most of the momentum.

现在美国的国债已经超过了GDP，这在过去是难以想象的。

And The US national debt now exceeds GDP, a once unthinkable threshold.

此外，众议院通过了一项法案，为国土安全部的大部分部门提供资金，但不包括移民与海关执法局。

Plus, the house approves a bill to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, but not ICE.

今天是四月三十日，星期四。

It's Thursday, April 30.

我是《华尔街日报》的亚历克斯·奥斯奥拉。

I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal.

欢迎收听《今日要闻》晚间版，为您梳理今天影响全球的头条新闻和商业动态。

This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

今天公布了一项重要的经济数据——GDP。

A new piece of important economic data came in today, GDP.

第一季度GDP增长了2%。

It rose at a 2% rate in the first quarter.

这比去年年底的0.5%要好得多，那时候政府停摆拖了后腿。

That's better than a half a percent from the end of last year when government shutdown was a big drag.

但第一季度的数据还是略低于经济学家的预期。

But the first quarter was still a bit lower than economists expected.

为了深入分析这些数字背后的原因，我现在邀请到EY-Parthenon的首席经济学家格雷格·达科。

To dig into what's behind the numbers, I'm joined now by Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

格雷格，经济的主要引擎当然是消费支出。

Greg, the economy's main engine, of course, is consumer spending.

第一季度消费增长从第四季度的1.9%放缓到了1.6%。

That softened in the first quarter to 1.6% from 1.9% in the fourth quarter.

是什么导致了这些变化？我们现在对人们的消费行为了解多少？

What's driving those changes, and what do we know about how people are spending now?

我觉得大家普遍变得更谨慎了。

I think in general, are being increasingly cautious.

我们现在处于一个收入增长放缓、通胀却在上升的环境里。

We are in this environment where income growth is decelerating and inflation is accelerating.

所以实际购买力在下降，这越来越限制了消费者的支出。

So spending power is diminishing and that is increasingly a restraint on consumer spending activity.

令人欣慰的是，消费者的状况出现了两极分化。

The encouraging thing is that we have a bifurcated consumer landscape.

高收入群体依然保持着正常的消费水平，但中低收入家庭在这些压力下日子越来越难熬。

So affluent consumers are still doing their fair share of spending, but lower to median income households are increasingly struggling in the face of these headwinds.

因此，他们的消费节奏明显慢了下来。

And as a result, they're spending at a slower clip.

自二月伊朗冲突爆发以来，油价已经上涨了44%。

Since the February when the Iran war started, gas prices have increased 44%.

这意味着未来消费者支出还会面临更大压力吗？

Does that mean that we're gonna be seeing even more pressure on consumer spending moving forward?

中东冲突带来的压力还会持续拖累消费者的支出。

We are going to continue to see the pressures from the Middle East conflict affect consumer spending in a negative way.

第一季度我们本来挺高兴的，因为有一笔大额退税，但这笔钱基本都被更高的油价给抵消了，而且以后还会继续被这些涨价吃掉。

Now in the first quarter, we were encouraged by the fact that we had higher than usual tax refunds coming from the one big beautiful bill, but those were largely offset by the higher cost of gasoline, and they will continue to be offset by these higher prices.

这些更高的能源价格还会传导到交通成本、机票，甚至食品价格上。

And we're going to see these higher energy prices filter through to transportation costs, filter through to airfare, and also filter through to higher food prices.

通胀环境会让消费者的支出能力受到更大限制。

The inflation landscape is going to be more restrictive in terms of consumer spending capacity.

今天的数据里，我们还注意到企业支出在本季度大幅上升。

One of the other things we saw in the numbers today was that business spending picked up a lot during the quarter.

涨了超过百分之十。

It rose more than 10%.

是哪些企业在花钱？他们都在买些什么？

What kind of businesses are doing that spending, and what are they spending on?

说到企业投资，现在其实是个两极分化的局面。

We have essentially a bifurcated landscape when it comes to business investment.

有些公司特别专注于人工智能投资，正是它们带动了大部分增长。

We have firms that are extremely focused on AI investment, and they're driving most of the momentum.

实际上，如果你看第一季度的GDP数据，会发现企业用于信息和处理设备的支出激增，知识产权类产品的投入也大幅上升。

In fact, if you look at the GDP data for the first quarter, you saw that there was a surge in business equipment spending on info and processing equipment, as well as a surge in intellectual property products.

这些都属于研发和软件投资，全跟AI挂钩，正是这些因素推动了企业投资，进而拉动了GDP增长。

That's R and D, that's software investment, and that is all tied to AI, and those were the major factors that were driving business investment and in turn GDP activity.

经济这么依赖单一领域的支出，会不会有风险？

Are there risks to the economy to have so much spending concentrated in one area?

确实有风险，我以前说过，增长有三个脆弱的支柱：富裕消费者、AI投资和资产价格上涨。

It is a risk, and I have spoken in the past about the three fragile A pillars of growth, affluent consumers, AI investment, and asset price appreciation.

三个支柱太集中，要是形成良性循环当然好，但只要其中一个出问题，整个经济动能的脆弱性就会立刻暴露出来。

When you have three narrow pillars of growth, it is encouraging when you have a virtuous cycle, but if there is a shock to one of these pillars, it will expose underlying fragilities in terms of economic momentum.

除了AI之外，企业在投资和招聘上都更谨慎了，这正在抑制私营部门的潜在增长动力。

Outside of AI, we're seeing more hesitation when it comes to investing, when it comes to hiring, and that is curbing the underlying potential for growth in terms of private sector activity.

这是EY-Parthenon的首席经济学家格雷格·达科说的。

That was Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

谢谢，格雷格。

Thanks, Greg.

不客气。

Thank you.

最新的GDP数据背后，出现了一个听起来挺吓人的里程碑。

With the latest GDP numbers comes a sort of scary sounding milestone.

美国的国债现在已经超过了国内生产总值的100%。

The US national debt now exceeds a 100% of gross domestic product.

政府每收入一美元，就要花掉1.33美元。

The government is spending $1.33 for every dollar it collects in revenue.

这也不是第一次国债超过GDP了，这数字可能还会上下波动。

It's not the first time the debts topped GDP, and that number might bounce around bit.

并没有一个明确的临界点，让债务从有问题突然变成灾难，但它确实象征着美国几十年来不断累积的财政压力。

There also isn't some special level where debt goes from problematic to catastrophic, but it is a symbol of the fiscal stresses on The US that have been building for decades.

投资专栏作家斯宾塞·贾卡说，这笔债务已经在拖累政府的预算了。

Investing columnist Spencer Jakab says the debt is already weighing on the government's budget.

这让政府的回旋余地变小了。

It gives the government less room for maneuver.

你想啊，要是再来个疫情或者经济衰退，你本来就已经有巨额赤字了。

I mean, just think if there's a pandemic or recession, you already have a large deficit.

你本来就欠了一大堆债。

You already have a lot of borrowings.

你总不能随便开张空白支票吧。

You you can't just necessarily write a blank check.

这还压缩了政府的实际支出能力。

And it squeezes the actual spending power of the government.

你想想，越来越多的钱都得拿去还债，能用在正事上的钱自然就少了。

You know, as more and more money is dedicated just to servicing the debt, there's less money to spend on actual things the government does.

但斯宾塞说，政客们还在不停地花钱。

But Spencer says politicians keep spending.

现在的预算赤字占GDP的比例，通常只会在经济严重衰退、政府拼命刺激经济的时候出现，而不是像现在这样，经济正处在繁荣期。

The budget deficit as a share of GDP today is at a level that you typically only see during deep recessions when the government is trying to sort of pump up the economy and get us out, not in the middle of a boom like we're having now.

市场上，道指今天领涨，收涨1.6%，标普和纳指也迎来了几年来最棒的一个月。

In markets, the Dow led today's gains, closing up 1.6%, and the S and P and Nasdaq closed out one of their best months in years.

纳指四月涨幅超过15%，是自2020年初以来最强的单月表现。

The Nasdaq ended April with a gain of more than 15%, the biggest since early twenty twenty.

标普也迎来了自2020年以来表现最好的一个月。

It was also the S and P's best month since 2020.

涨了百分之十。

It had a 10% gain.

几家大美国公司表示，AI支出正在推动业务增长，比如谷歌、高通，甚至卡特彼勒。

Several big American companies said AI spending is benefiting their businesses like Alphabet, Qualcomm, and even Caterpillar.

数据中心需要卡特彼勒生产的发电设备。

Data centers need the power generators Caterpillar makes.

不过，并不是所有科技股都涨了。

Not all tech stocks climbed though.

Meta和微软因为担心AI建设成本上升而下跌。

Meta and Microsoft slid on concerns about the cost of that AI build out.

其他公司财报方面，苹果公布的上季度销售额和毛利率都超过了华尔街预期。

And in other earnings, Apple reported sales and gross profit margins for its most recent quarter that exceeded Wall Street's expectations.

iPhone的收入增长超过20%，接近570亿美元。

IPhone's revenue rose more than 20% to nearly $57,000,000,000.

想了解更多财报详情，请访问wsj.com。

For more on the earnings, visit wsj.com.

Eli Lilly在经历了一个强劲的季度后，上调了全年业绩预期。

And Eli Lilly has raised its forecast for the year after a strong quarter.

它的减肥药物销量暴增，推动了今年前三个月的收入和利润大幅增长。

Booming sales of its weight loss drugs fueled strong revenue and profit growth in the first three months of the year.

Mounjaro的销售额翻了一倍多，Zepbound的销售额也上涨了79%。

Sales of Mounjaro more than doubled, while Zepbound sales rose 79%.

Eli Lilly在抗肥胖药物市场占据主导地位，现在正靠一款新减肥药想进一步扩大份额。

Lilly is dominating in the anti obesity drug market, and it's seeking to grow its share with its new weight loss pill.

今天它的股价收盘涨了大约10%。

Its stock closed up about 10% today.

提醒一下，今天早些时候我们刚发布了一期特别加更节目。

Heads up that we dropped a special bonus episode earlier today.

在最新一期的《今日要闻与财报》里，我们聊了聊航油价格上涨对航空公司和像我这样最近花400美元买纽约到亚特兰大往返机票的旅客意味着什么。

In the latest What's News and earnings, we look at what the rising cost of jet fuel has meant for the airline industry and for travelers like me who recently shelled out $400 a ticket for a round trip flight from New York to Atlanta.

真肉疼。

Ouch.

好了，这些内容现在都在你的《今日要闻》里了。

Anyway, that's in your What's News Feed now.

接下来，另一家保险公司退出了《平价医疗法案》市场，缅因州一场激烈的参议员选举也有了重大进展。

Coming up, another insurer leaves the Affordable Care Act marketplace and a big development in a hotly contested Senate race in Maine.

广告之后马上回来。

That's after the break.

菲利普莫里斯国际公司在美业务怎么样？

How are The U.

美国业务呢？

S.

菲利普莫里斯国际公司在美国的投资都投在哪儿了？

Businesses of Philip Morris International invested in America?

我们投资于科学研究，为吸烟者提供更好的替代选择。

We're invested in advancing science, giving adults who smoke better options.

我们也投资美国制造业，助力本地经济繁荣。

We're invested in American manufacturing, helping local economies thrive.

我们还投身社区，支持退伍军人及其家庭、灾难救援，以及经济赋能。

We're invested in community, supporting military veterans and their families, disaster relief, and economic empowerment.

因为我们为在美投资感到自豪。

Because we're proud to be invested in America.

了解更多，请访问 seehow@uspmi.com。

See how@uspmi.com.

再来看华盛顿方面，众议院已通过了一项长期搁置的法案，为国土安全部的大部分部门提供资金。

Turning to Washington, the House has approved a long delayed measure to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security.

这笔资金覆盖了海岸警卫队、联邦紧急事务管理局和运输安全管理局，现在法案将送交特朗普总统签署。

It funds the Coast Guard, FEMA, and TSA, and the bill now goes to president Trump for his signature.

你可能注意到了，这份名单里没提到移民与海关执法局（ICE）。

You may have noticed that absent from that list of agencies is ICE.

共和党人打算单独推动一项为ICE和边境巡逻队拨款的法案。

Republicans are going to try to get legislation funding ICE and border patrol separately.

特朗普总统已撤回对医生兼健康饮食倡导者凯西·梅恩斯担任美国卫生总监的提名。

President Trump is withdrawing his nomination of doctor and health food advocate Casey Means to serve as US surgeon general.

她在参议院得不到足够的支持来通过任命。

She didn't have enough support in the senate to get confirmed.

总统今天表示，他将改提名妮可·萨菲芙担任这一职位。

The president said today that he would instead nominate Nicole Sapphire for the role.

她是纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心蒙茅斯分部的乳腺影像主任，同时也是福克斯新闻的评论员。

She's the director of breast imaging at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Monmouth and a Fox News contributor.

再来看看缅因州——这对民主党重夺参议院控制权至关重要，州长珍妮特·米尔斯今天宣布退出参议员竞选。

And turning to Maine, which is crucial to Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate, Janet Mills, the state's Democratic governor, today dropped out of the Senate race.

她说自己没钱再继续撑下去了。

She said she didn't have the financial resources to keep going.

她这一退出，基本上就让进步派候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳稳获民主党提名了，他是个牡蛎养殖户，也是退伍海军军人。

Her exit all but secures the Democratic nomination for progressive Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer and marine veteran.

他将对阵自1997年以来一直占据该席位的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯。

He'll face off against Republican senator Susan Collins, who has held the seat since 1997.

《平价医疗法案》的医保业务，因为部分联邦补贴被取消，受到了严重打击。

The business of Affordable Care Act health insurance has been hit hard by the loss of some federal subsidies.

保险计划越来越贵，很多人干脆不买了。

Plans have gotten more expensive, and people are dropping them.

今天，Cigna宣布，从明年开始就不再提供这些保险计划了。

And today, Cigna says it's not gonna offer those plans anymore starting next year.

这事儿其实也不意外，Aetna今年年初就已经退出市场了。

That's after Aetna dropped out of the market at the start of this year.

Cigna在医保市场里算不上大玩家，目前只有大约36.9万人参保。

Cigna's not a very big player in the ACA market with about 369,000 people enrolled in its plans.

《华尔街日报》的健康保险记者安娜·韦尔迪·马修斯说，Cigna这一走，说明整个医保市场问题不小。

Anna Wieldy Matthews, who covers health insurance for the journal, says Cigna's exit is a sign of trouble in the broader ACA business.

今年年初以来，很多人干脆不交钱，直接退保了。

Since the start of the year, a lot of people have just not paid and have been dropping out.

精算师和保险公司都预测，今年总参保人数可能会比去年的2400万下降四分之一左右。

Actuaries and insurers are projecting that overall enrollment could drop by maybe a quarter this year versus what it was last year, which was around 24,000,000.

那又怎样呢？

So what

这

it

其实反映出市场一片混乱、规模在萎缩，目前看来也不太稳定。

really shows is just turmoil, a shrinking market, and maybe an unstable market for the moment.

安娜说，ACA的保费预计还会继续上涨。

Anna says ACA premiums are expected to keep climbing.

保险公司现在正向各州监管机构提交2027年的保费申报，看来不少地区都会申请大幅提价。

Insurers are right now actually making their filings, with state regulators for their rates for 2027, and it does seem likely they're going to ask for significant premium increases in a number of markets.

不过，真正自己全额付保费的人在医保市场里其实很少。

That said, very few people in the affordable care act marketplace actually pay the full premium.

大多数人还是能拿到补贴，所以保费涨了，但真正掏钱的人不会全盘承担。

Most people still do get a subsidy, and so premiums go up, but they do not bear the full brunt of that.

另外，在医疗健康领域，司法部正在成立一个新的医疗欺诈打击小组。

In other health care related news, the justice department is launching a new health care fraud strike force.

这个小组将重点打击西海岸的联邦医疗保险和医疗补助欺诈行为。

The unit will focus on Medicare and Medicaid fraud on the West Coast.

犯罪分子盯上了西海岸日益增多的退休人群，每年给纳税人造成数十亿美元的损失。

Criminals targeting health programs have followed the growing number of people retiring out West, and they're costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

最后呢

And finally

大卫，你先坐电梯下去吧。

And, David, I'm gonna ask you to take the down elevator.

你被开除了。

You're fired.

《学徒》会不会复播？

Could the apprentice be coming back?

据《华尔街日报》报道，亚马逊正在讨论重启这档让唐纳德·特朗普家喻户晓的真人秀节目。

The journal has learned that Amazon is discussing a potential reboot of the reality TV show that made Donald Trump a household name.

亚马逊高管们曾讨论过让特朗普的大儿子小唐纳德·特朗普担任新版节目的主持人。

Amazon executives have talked about casting Donald Trump junior, president Trump's oldest son, as the host of a new version of the show.

亚马逊的一位发言人说，公司内部确实初步探讨过《学徒》这个品牌未来的发展方向，但目前还没进入实际制作阶段。

An Amazon spokesman said there's been preliminary internal discussions about what's next for The Apprentice as a brand, but that the show isn't in active development.

白宫和特朗普家族的发言人没有回应媒体的置评请求。

Spokespeople for the White House and the Trump family didn't respond to requests for comment.

好了，这就是今天周四下午的新闻动态。

And that's what's news for this Thursday afternoon.

本期节目由安东尼·班西制作，总监是塔利·R。

Today's show is produced by Anthony Bansi with supervising producer, Tali R.

贝尔。

Bell.

我是《华尔街日报》的亚历克斯·奥斯奥拉。

I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal.

明天早上我们再带来新的一期节目。

We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

德勤美国首席执行官杰森·格扎迪斯表示，企业已经在金融、人力和IT等领域利用智能代理AI提升效率。

Enterprises are already creating efficiencies with agentic AI, particularly in areas like finance, HR, and IT, says Jason Gerzadis, CEO of Deloitte US.

这些能力会不断增多、越来越强，彻底改变人们做事的方式，未来工作将越来越多地由智能代理来完成。

Those will continue to proliferate and strengthen, and it'll change the work that gets done, and work will increasingly be delivered through agentic capabilities.

格扎迪斯认为，智能代理系统最具变革性的影响，还在后头。

Gerzadis believes the most transformative impacts of agentic systems are still to come.

它会推动创新。

It will fuel innovation.

它会推动企业转向开拓新市场、多元化布局，为那些寻求增长、想打入新市场的客户和机构打开全新机会——我觉得这才是最让人兴奋的地方。

It will fuel the pivot into market creation, market diversification strategies that will open up new markets to clients and to organizations who are looking for growth and looking for differentiated access to new markets, which I think is the most exciting thing.

想了解你的企业如何有效利用智能代理AI？请访问 deloitte.com。

Visit deloitte.com to learn how your enterprise can help successfully leverage Agentic AI.

播客中嘉宾表达的观点仅代表他们个人，不代表德勤或其员工的看法，德勤也不支持或推荐节目中出现的任何个人或机构。

The views and opinions expressed by podcast speakers and guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Deloitte or its personnel nor does Deloitte advocate or endorse any individuals or entities featured on the episodes.

WSJ定制内容是《华尔街日报》广告部门的一个分支。

Custom content from WSJ is a unit of the Wall Street Journal advertising department.

《华尔街日报》的新闻团队并未参与本内容的制作。

The Wall Street Journal news organization was not involved in the creation of this content.