中东冲突加剧，可能将美国的北约盟友卷入其中

一些最好的教训并非来自课堂。

Some of the best lessons don't come from a classroom.

它们来自经验。

They come from experience.

在《建议的力量》——资本集团推出的新播客系列中，您将听到

On the power of advice, a new podcast series from Capital Group, you'll hear

来自

from

首席执行官、投资者和创始人分享他们如何打造职业生涯、承担风险并重塑自我的故事。

CEOs, investors, and founders about how they built careers, took risks, and reinvented themselves.

如果您正踏上自己的旅程，这类建议您绝对不容错过。

If you're starting your own journey, this is the kind of advice you won't wanna miss.

您可以在任何获取播客的平台收听。

Available wherever you get your podcasts.

由资本客户集团有限公司出版。

Published by Capital Client Group Inc.

中东冲突升级，美国击落了一枚针对北约成员国土耳其发射的伊朗导弹。

The conflict in The Middle East expands, and The US shoots down an Iranian missile fired at NATO member Turkey.

此外，本周油价上涨了约15%，但美国钻探公司并未急于增加产量。

Plus, oil prices are up about 15% this week, but US drillers aren't rushing to pump more.

对他们来说，现在这么做风险太高了。

It's just too risky for them right now.

在我们不知道这场危机将持续多久的情况下，为什么要额外增加钻井平台并改变计划呢？

Why would they bother to add a rig and change their plans when we don't know how long this crisis is gonna go on for?

以及为何创纪录数量的员工正在为应对紧急情况从退休账户中提取资金。

And why record numbers of workers are pulling money out of their retirement accounts for emergencies.

今天是3月4日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, March 4.

我是《华尔街日报》的亚历克斯·奥斯奥拉。

I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal.

这是《今日要闻》的晚间版，为您呈现今天影响全球的头条新闻和商业要闻。

This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

今天早上，美国在印度洋击沉了一艘伊朗船只，造成至少87人死亡。

This morning, The US sank an Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean, killing at least 87 people.

国防部长佩特·海格塞斯表示，这是自二战以来美国首次用鱼雷击沉敌方舰船。

Defense secretary Pete Hegseth said it was the first time a US torpedo had sunk an enemy ship since World War two.

华盛顿决心摧毁德黑兰的海军，保障波斯湾石油运输的畅通。

Washington is determined to destroy Tehran's navy and safeguard the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.

在五角大楼的新闻发布会上，海格塞斯公布了这场战争持续时间的新时间表。

In a news conference at the Pentagon, Hegseth provided a new timeline for the duration of the war.

伊朗无法拖垮我们。

Iran cannot outlast us.

我们将通过实际行动、进攻能力和防御能力，正如我所说，来主导这场战斗的节奏和态势。

We're gonna ensure through violence of action and our offensive capabilities and our defensive capabilities, as I said, that we set the tone and the tempo of this fight.

这就是为什么我们不谈论具体时间——你可以说四周，但也可能是六周、八周，甚至三周。

And that's why we don't talk about you you can say four weeks, but it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three.

最终，由我们来决定节奏和步伐。

Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo.

这场冲突有将北约盟国卷入的风险。

The conflict risks drawing in NATO allies.

今天，美国还击落了一枚针对驻有美军的土耳其军事基地的伊朗导弹。

Today, The US also shot down an Iranian missile headed to a Turkish military base that hosts American forces.

伊朗此前一直避免攻击土耳其。

Iran had refrained from attacking Turkey until now.

最近几天，英国和法国表示，将在伊朗无人机袭击塞浦路斯的一个英国军事基地后，向该地区派遣更多军舰。

And in recent days, The UK and France have said that they would send additional warships to the region after an Iranian drone targeted a British military base in Cyprus.

与此同时，在国会山，参议院今天正在就一项关于特朗普战争权力的决议进行投票。

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate is voting today on a resolution over Trump's war powers.

由于大多数共和党人支持总统，阻止对伊朗军事行动的提议预计会失败。

The push to stop the military operation against Iran is expected to fail as most Republicans back the president.

该决议的发起人、来自弗吉尼亚州的民主党参议员蒂姆·凯恩在投票前于参议院发言。

Senator Tim Caine, a Democrat from Virginia who sponsored the resolution, spoke from the senate floor ahead of the vote.

于是，我们现在陷入了一场已造成美国士兵死亡、导致整个地区陷入混乱，并可能不断升级的战争。

And so here we are in a war that has cost American lives, that is leading to chaos throughout the region, that threatens to go bigger and bigger and bigger.

我要求参议院履行宪法制定者所规定的职责，就战争事务进行辩论并投票。

And I'm asking the senate to do what the framers of the constitution said we should do, debate and vote about matters of war.

来自肯塔基州的米奇·麦康奈尔参议员为总统打击伊朗的决定辩护，称总统在未经国会批准的情况下使用武力的权力是‘早已确立的’。

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky defended the president's decision to strike Iran and said presidential power to use military force without congressional approval was, quote, well established.

但他在参议院演讲中警告称，此举存在风险，特朗普需要向美国公众阐明其战略。

But he warned in a floor speech that there are risks involved and that Trump needs to explain his strategy to the American public.

众议院预计明天将对一项类似议案进行投票。

A vote on a similar measure in the house is expected tomorrow.

正如我们本周在节目中所报道的，中东冲突已使全球石油市场陷入混乱。

As we've been covering on the show this week, the conflict in The Middle East has thrown the global oil market for a loop.

昨天，美国原油基准价格收于每桶75美元以下，这是自去年六月以来的最低水平。

Yesterday, The US oil benchmark settled below $75 a barrel, a level not seen since last June.

尽管今天全球油价似乎已趋于稳定，但高盛分析师预测，如果霍尔木兹海峡瘫痪数周，全球油价可能飙升至每桶100美元。

And though global oil prices seem to have stabilized today, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that global oil could shoot to a $100 a barrel if the Strait Of Hormuz is paralyzed for weeks.

但报道美国石油和天然气行业的贝诺伊斯特·莫尔纳表示，美国钻探公司并未急于增加产量。

But Benoist Morenne, who covers The US oil and gas industry, says American drillers aren't rushing to boost their production.

贝诺，为什么美国钻探公司不抓住这个机会呢？

Beno, why aren't American drillers jumping on this?

对他们来说，现在这么做风险太高了。

It's just too risky for them right now.

既然我们不知道这场危机将持续多久，他们为什么要费劲增加钻机、改变计划呢？

Why would they bother to add a rig and change their plans when we don't know how long this crisis is gonna go on for?

对吧？

Right?

对于一些公司来说，几周前才向投资者公布了2026年的巨额支出计划，现在又因为这点事重新调整，根本毫无意义。

So it just makes no sense for them to revisit billions of dollars in spending that they've laid out for 2026 to investors just, you know, a couple of weeks ago for some of those companies.

如果他们仅凭最近几天的情况就做出这些改变，投资者会惩罚他们的。

They would be punished by investors if they made those changes based on just the last few days.

有迹象表明，美国海军可能会为油轮提供保护，而特朗普总统也表示，美国可能还会为相关公司提供保险。

There are indications that the US Navy might be providing protection to tankers, and president Trump has said that The US might be providing insurance to companies as well.

所以这些公司现在只是在观望，看接下来会发生什么。

So those companies are just waiting to see what happens.

如果他们过快地增加产量，会面临什么风险？

What is the risk for them if they jump into increasing production too quickly?

我们以新增一台钻机为例来看需要什么条件。

Well, let's take the example of what it takes to add a new rig.

对吧？

Right?

你可能需要六周时间才能签约一台新钻机。

That could take you maybe six weeks to contract for a new rig.

从你签约到钻机开始钻探新井之间，油价可能已经发生变化。

And between the moment you do that and the moment that the rig is drilling for new wells, prices could have changed.

你可能在油价每桶80美元时决定这么做，但两周后油价可能跌到60美元，那时你就被锁定在这台已签约的钻机上了。

You could be deciding to do that at, you know, $80 barrel oil, and then prices could drop down to 60 two weeks later, and then you're stuck with this rig that you've contracted for.

因此，分析师和首席执行官们表示，如果油价达到每桶75到95美元之间，就可能会看到一些变化。

So what analysts and CEOs are saying is that if prices reach something like between 75 and $95 a barrel, then you could see some changes.

但你需要看到这样的价格持续数月之久。

But you would need to see those prices for probably several months.

过去几年里，由于新冠疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰等因素，油价一直起伏不定。

Oil prices have been on a roller coaster over the past few years because of things like COVID and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

这是否给这些石油公司提供了一套应对这类情况的策略？

Has that given these oil companies a playbook for how to handle these kinds of situations?

他们的策略就是坚持既定路线。

Their strategy is just to stay the course.

他们能控制的有限，但过去几年里，他们在清理内部方面做得非常好。

There's only so much they can control, and they've done a really good job at cleaning a house, right, in the past few years.

他们曾经花掉大量资金。

They used to spend a lot of a lot of money.

他们因过度支出而亏损了数十亿美元，此后各公司都采纳了被称为资本纪律的做法，即一切以向股东返还现金为核心。

They lost billions of dollars outspending themselves, and companies have since embraced something that everyone calls capital discipline, which is that it's all about returning cash to shareholders.

重点在于股息和股票回购。

It's all about dividends, buybacks.

而且，你知道，当价格波动加剧时，情况更是如此。

And if anything, you know, the volatility price is spiking.

这对他们来说很棒，不仅能向投资者返还更多现金，还能锁定未来产量的价格。

That's great for them to return even more cash to investors and then also lock in prices for future output.

这对美国消费者有什么影响？

What is the impact that this has on American consumers?

我们是不是只能被迫支付更高的油价？

Are we just stuck paying more at the pump?

石油是一个全球性市场。

So oil is a global market.

中东发生的事情将对美国消费者在加油站的支出产生影响。

What happens in the in The Middle East is gonna have ramifications for US consumers at the pump.

话虽如此，美国石油和天然气行业目前产量上升且稳定，为消费者提供了一定的缓冲，以应对价格飙升。

That being said, rising oil production and the steadiness that defines The US oil and gas industry now is providing sort of a buffer between consumers and and price spikes.

因为如果这个行业无法在高低价位下持续生产，汽油价格可能会更高。

Because if it weren't for the industry's ability to keep producing through high and low prices, you could see even higher gasoline prices.

这是《华尔街日报》记者贝努瓦·莫尔内。

That was WSJ reporter, Benoist Morenne.

谢谢，贝努瓦。

Thanks, Benoist.

感谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

由于霍尔木兹海峡实际上被封锁，数千艘船只被困在波斯湾及其周边地区。

With the Strait Of Hormuz effectively blocked, several thousand ships are stuck in and around the Persian Gulf.

这导致全球每日消费的约五分之一的石油和液化天然气被滞留，并影响了整个地区的行业。

That's trapping about a fifth of the oil and liquefied natural gas the world consumes each day, and it's affecting the industry in the entire region.

储油罐因无法外运而逐渐填满，这意味着生产商不得不削减产量。

Storage tanks are filling up with oil that can't get shipped out, which means producers have to cut their output.

接下来，为您带来油价和股市动态的最新消息。

Coming up, the latest on oil prices and stock market moves.

此外，华尔街日报读者最讨厌的商业术语是什么？

Plus, what's the corporate jargon that WSJ readers hate the most?

我们将在广告后回来，深入解析这个问题。

We'll circle back and unpack that after the break.

油价已趋于稳定，全球基准布伦特原油今日持平，约为每桶81美元。

Oil prices have stabilized with Brent crude, the global benchmark, unchanged today at around $81 a barrel.

三大股指今日均上涨，其中纳斯达克领涨，收盘上涨1.3%。

All three indexes gained today with the Nasdaq leading and closing up 1.3%.

此外，中东冲突引发了通胀担忧，推高了美国的借贷成本。

Plus, the conflict in The Middle East has sparked inflation worries driving up US borrowing costs.

国债收益率数周以来持续下降，但最近几天的上涨使十年期国债收益率升至4.1%，令许多希望借贷成本降低的企业和消费者感到失望。

Treasury yields have been falling for several weeks, but gains over the past few days have pushed the yield on the ten year treasury note as high as 4.1%, disappointing many businesses and consumers who were hoping for lower borrowing costs.

越来越多的美国人因财务紧急情况而动用退休储蓄。

More Americans are digging into their retirement savings because of financial emergencies.

先锋集团表示，去年在四个401(k)计划中，有创纪录的6%的员工通过困难提取提取了资金。

Vanguard says that last year, a record 6% of workers in four zero one k plans pulled out money via a hardship withdrawal.

这一比例高于2024年的4.8%。

That's up from 4.8% in 2024.

人们因不同原因申请困难提取资金。

People take out money in hardship withdrawals for different reasons.

2025年，最主要的用途是避免房屋止赎和驱逐，以及支付医疗费用。

In 2025, the top ones were to avoid foreclosure and eviction and to pay medical expenses.

取出的中位数金额为1900美元。

The median amount taken out was $1,900.

先锋公司的分析只是又一个表明经济分化现象的数据点。

Vanguard's analysis is just another data point showing a divergent economy.

大多数人状况良好，正在为退休储蓄更多，但有些人正经历财务压力。

Most people are doing well and saving more for retirement, but some are going through financial stress.

对他们而言，退休账户正日益成为应急资金的重要来源，即使取款会带来罚款。

And for them, retirement accounts are an increasingly important source of emergency funds, even if taking out the money comes with penalties.

最后，你觉得企业用语有时是否过于含糊其辞？

And finally, do you find corporate speak to be sometimes needlessly vague?

当今商业世界倾向于依赖流行术语。

The business world today has a tendency to rely on buzzwords.

但对于听到这些术语的人，以及许多《华尔街日报》读者来说，这种行话显得模糊不清、令人尴尬，甚至 downright silly。

But to people who hear them and to a lot of Wall Street Journal readers, it seems, that lingo can be unclear or cringeworthy or downright silly.

编辑期刊风格手册的比尔·鲍ower告诉我们，华尔街日报的读者最讨厌哪些行话。

Bill Power, who edits the journal style book, told us about the jargon that Wall Street Journal readers love to hate.

我们询问了读者，哪些企业行话是他们最反感的。

What we did was we asked readers what corporate jargon do you hate the most.

其中一些包括‘回头再联系’、‘主动联系’。

So some of the ones are circle back, reach out.

一位读者说，听起来你像是在费力地去抓某人。

One reader said, it sounds like you're making a physical effort to grab somebody.

你知道吗？为什么就不能直接说‘联系’呢？

You know, why can't you just say contact?

利用、推动进展、立即投入、成长型思维、从万英尺高度看、榨汁不值得。

Leverage, move the needle, hit the ground running, growth mindset, take a 10,000 foot view, juice isn't worth the squeeze.

我再给你们举几个例子。

I'll give you a couple more.

成长、先放一放、讨论、深入分析、决策、变革推动者、带宽。

Growth, put a pin in that, socialize, deep dive, decisioning, change agent, bandwidth.

人们不喜欢用'utilize'。

People don't like utilize.

你为什么不直接说'use'呢？

Why don't you just say use?

既然一个直接的词就能表达清楚，为什么还要用那些花哨的词或短语，或者过度使用它们呢？

Why do you use a fancy word or phrase or overuse it when a direct word works just as well?

比尔说，人们依赖行话有不同的原因。

Bill says that there are different reasons people fall back on jargon.

这些短语第一次使用时还挺有趣，但因为被反复使用，它们逐渐成了人们的依赖。

Some of these phrases were kind of fun the first time they were used, but the fact that they're used over and over, they sort of become a crutch for people.

长期以来，人们使用行话或陈词滥调，要么是为了显得聪明，或者说得温和点，是因为这些说法在外界听得太多，根本忍不住。

There's a long tradition of using jargon or cliches either to sound smart or we won't be quite as mean about it is that it's just phrases people hear out there, and they just can't help it.

它们就是自动冒出来，然后脱口而出。

It just comes into their head, and they spit it out.

这就是本周三下午的新闻。

And that's what's news for this Wednesday afternoon.

本期节目由皮埃尔·比纳梅制作，主管制片人为塔利·阿尔贝尔。

Today's show is produced by Pierre Bienaime with supervising producer, Tali Arbel.

我是亚历克斯·奥斯奥拉，来自《华尔街日报》。

I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal.

我们明天早上会带来新的一期节目。

We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.