特朗普称尚不清楚谁将领导伊朗

特朗普称伊朗的大部分军事力量已被摧毁，他似乎正在实时决定如何处理该国的未来。

Trump says much of Iran's military is knocked out, and he seems to be deciding what to do about the country's future in real time.

他正试图与他鼓励人们推翻的政权达成协议，这充分表明并没有一个明确的最终目标。

He's trying to make a deal with the regime that he's encouraging people to overthrow, which really shows that there isn't a clear defined endgame.

此外，外界对特朗普政府发动战争理由的审查正在增加，

Plus, scrutiny is growing over the Trump administration's case for war,

而中东冲突导致股市剧烈波动。

and the Middle East conflict sends stocks spinning.

今天是3月3日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, March 3.

我是《华尔街日报》的亚历克斯·奥塞莱夫。

I'm Alex Oseleff for The Wall Street Journal.

这是《今日要闻》晚间版，为您带来今天影响全球的头条新闻和商业要闻。

This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

自美国和以色列的空袭杀死伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊以来，已经过去了三天。

It's been three days since The US Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

特朗普总统今天对记者说，伊朗接下来由谁来领导并不明确，许多潜在的领导人已经被杀。

President Trump today told reporters that who comes next in Iran isn't obvious, and many of the country's would be leaders have been killed.

我们原本心目中属于那群人的人，都已经死了。

We had some in mind from that group that is, is dead.

而现在，我们有了另一群人。

And now, we have another group.

根据报道，他们可能也已经死了。

They may be dead also based on reports.

他还暗示，应该由政权内部的人来掌权。

And he suggested that someone inside the regime should be in charge.

在我看来，或许来自内部的人会更合适。

It would seem to me that somebody from within might maybe would be more appropriate.

我已经说过这一点了。

I've said that.

美国官员还表示，特朗普总统愿意支持伊朗国内能够推翻政权的团体。

US officials are also saying that president Trump is open to supporting groups in Iran who could fight to dislodge the regime.

现在有来自华盛顿的美国国家安全记者薇拉·伯根格鲁恩与我连线。

Journal national security reporter Vera Bergengruen joins me now from Washington.

好的，薇拉。

Okay, Vera.

从实际运作层面来看，目前是谁在管理伊朗？

On a functional level, who is actually running Iran right now?

在最高领袖去世后，伊朗成立了一个临时委员会，目前主要有三个人。

So after the death of the supreme leader, the country formed an interim council, and there's basically three people.

他们仍然是强硬派神职人员，正在等待选出继任者。

They're still hardline clerics, and they're waiting to select a successor.

但显然，他们正处在一场大规模军事行动的中心，我们对许多决策的实际掌控者知之甚少。

But, obviously, they're in the middle of this massive military assault, and we have little visibility into who's actually running a lot of those decisions.

因为除了最高领袖之外，他的许多亲信和美国此前视为关键权力人物的顶级官员也已被杀。

Because besides the supreme leader, a lot of his inner circle, a lot of the very top officials that The US kind of looked at as power brokers have been killed as well.

我们刚才听到了几段总统特朗普关于他认为谁应该掌管这个国家的发言。

We just heard a few clips from president Trump here about who he thinks should be in charge of the country.

美国在伊朗最高领袖继任者问题上将扮演什么角色？

What role is The US going to play in the successor to the supreme leader?

特朗普提出了多种选择，并且对如何运作提出了截然不同的构想。

Trump has floated quite a few options, and he's offering really contrasting visions as to how that could work.

他显然在周六发动军事行动时，呼吁伊朗人民起来接管政府，基本上是在鼓励政变或起义。

He obviously, on Saturday, when he launched the military operation, called on on Iran to rise up to take over their government, basically encouraging a coup or a revolt.

同时，他明确表示，他更希望看到所谓的“委内瑞拉模式”，即与政权内部人士合作，保留大部分体制不变，保持稳定，并宣称胜利，因为他除掉了那个最大的坏人。

At the same time, he has been very clear that he would love what he calls the Venezuela model, which is working with an insider in the regime to keep most of it in place, keep it stable, and declare victory because he took out the top bad guy, basically.

所以，这些显然是非常不同的做法。

So, you know, these are obviously very different things.

他试图与自己鼓励人们推翻的政权达成协议，这充分表明目前并没有明确的最终目标。

He's trying to make a deal with the regime that he's encouraging people to overthrow, which really shows that there isn't a clear defined endgame.

对美国政府来说，最好的情况是什么？

What is the best case scenario for the administration?

他们希望继任者具备哪些特质？

What are they looking for in a successor?

这真的取决于你问的是哪位总统。

It really depends who you ask the president.

他一直明确表示不希望地面部队介入。

He's been quite clear that he does not want boots on the ground.

他不想搞国家建设。

He does not want to do nation building.

最好的情况是找到一个已经在该国拥有权威的人，让他接管并处理这一切混乱，然后美国可以撤出，宣称自己推翻了这个暴政政权的外国领导人，并宣告胜利。

The best case scenario is finding someone who is already has authority in the country, who can take over, who can manage all this mess, and he can get out, say that he's deposed the foreign leader of this brutal regime, and declare victory.

政府内部许多人对此持不同意见。

A lot of other people in the administration disagree with that.

许多一直敦促特朗普采取行动的强硬派人士，确实希望彻底 dismantled 整个压迫性结构。

A lot of the hardliners who have been pressing Trump to take action, you know, really want the entire repressive structure dismantled.

但我与几位曾任职于特朗普第一届政府的人交谈时，他们说他有两条原则。

But several people I spoke with who were in Trump's first administration said he had two rules.

第一条是军事行动必须一次到位。

One was military action had to be one and done.

你只需展示一次压倒性的武力。

You do one overwhelming show of force.

我们在委内瑞拉见过这种情况。

We saw this in Venezuela.

我们在尼日利亚也见过。

We saw it in Nigeria.

去年我们在伊朗也见过。

We saw it in Iran last year.

然后你就撤出并宣布胜利。

And then you get out and you declare victory.

他现在在这场延长的军事行动中打破了这一规则。

He broke that rule now in this extended military engagement.

我们已经有六名美国士兵阵亡，而且他说这可能会持续四周。

We have six dead American troops, and, you know, he said this could last for four weeks.

第二条规则是地面部队不得介入。

The second rule was no boots on the ground.

没有美国入侵。

No US invasion.

他基本上将自己的整个政治生涯建立在声称自己吸取了9·11后反恐战争的教训，不会将美军投入中东任何长期泥潭之上。

He basically built his whole political career on saying that he had learned the mistakes of the post nine eleven war on terror, and he wasn't going to commit US troops to any extended quagmires in the Middle East.

这是他迄今为止最接近真正考验这一立场的时刻。

This is the closest he's ever come to really testing that.

这是《华尔街日报》记者维拉·伯根格鲁恩。

That was WSJ reporter Vera Bergengruen.

谢谢，维拉。

Thanks, Vera.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

今天，特朗普总统表示，伊朗的大部分军事力量已被击溃。

President Trump said today that much of Iran's military has been, quote, knocked out.

与此同时，美国驻中东的大使馆和外交机构仍持续遭受袭击，今天沙特利雅得的美国大使馆就遭到了两次袭击。

Meanwhile, US embassies and diplomatic missions remain under fire in The Middle East with two attacks today on the US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

美国已无限期关闭了在沙特阿拉伯、科威特和黎巴嫩的大使馆，并在多个国家暂停了领事服务。

The US has shut down embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon indefinitely, and consular operations are largely suspended in several countries.

国务院表示，正在安排军用和包机，以便希望离开该地区的美国公民撤离。

The state department says it's working on getting military and charter flights for American citizens who want to leave the region.

与此同时，在美国国内，特朗普总统袭击伊朗的理由正面临越来越多的质疑。

Meanwhile, back in The US, president Trump's reasons for striking Iran are facing growing scrutiny.

他多次指控伊朗政权威胁其邻国、美国军队以及美国本身。

He's made a number of accusations about the regime's threats to its neighbors, American troops, and The US itself.

今天在椭圆形办公室讲话时，特朗普总统表示，他下令发动袭击是因为担心伊朗会先发制人。

Speaking from the Oval Office today, president Trump said he ordered the strike because he was afraid that Iran would attack first.

我以为我们会面临被攻击的情况。

I thought we were going to have a situation where we were gonna be attacked.

他们正在准备攻击以色列。

They were getting ready to attack Israel.

他们正在准备攻击其他国家。

They were getting ready to attack others.

但专家和拥有机密信息的美国官员表示，政府的说法是不完整、缺乏依据的，甚至是完全错误的。

But experts and US officials with access to classified information say the administration's assertions are incomplete, unsubstantiated, or flat out wrong.

《华尔街日报》国家安全记者亚历克斯·沃德现在加入我们，带来更多信息。

WSJ national security reporter Alex Ward joins me now with more.

亚历克斯，在发动袭击之前，特朗普总统曾就美国为何应攻击伊朗发表过多种说法。

Alex, ahead of the strike, president Trump had said a number of different things about why The US should attack Iran.

他曾威胁要对镇压反政府抗议者的行动实施打击。

He threatened strikes over the crackdown on anti regime protesters.

随后，在谈判中，伊朗拒绝拆除其核计划和弹道导弹项目。

Then in negotiations, Iran was refusing to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

特朗普还提到伊朗数十年来对美国的敌对行为，但在袭击前，高级政府官员声称伊朗正在研发能够抵达美国本土的洲际导弹。

Trump also mentioned Iran's decades long aggression towards The US, but in the lead up to the attack, senior administration officials argued that Iran was developing intercontinental missiles capable of reaching American shores.

这一说法的依据是什么？其他证据又揭示了什么？

What's behind that claim, and what does other evidence show about this?

美国方面收到的情报显示，伊朗正全力扩充其导弹武库。

So The US was receiving intelligence that the Iranians were trying to really go whole hog on building up a missile arsenal.

他们认为，在伊朗所发现的某些材料可能用于制造更多导弹，甚至可用于研发洲际弹道导弹——一种能够跨越大洋的导弹。

They believe some of the material they found in Iran's possession could be used for more missiles or even do ICBM work, an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is an ocean spanning missile.

他们一直在测试卫星运载火箭，这些火箭能将卫星送入太空，而这与研制洲际弹道导弹直接相关。

And they've been testing satellite launch vehicles that literally put satellites into space, which is, like, directly conducive toward making an ICBM.

但关于政府所有这些论点的核心问题是：这种威胁是否真的迫在眉睫？

But the question for basically all the administration's arguments are, you know, was this looming threat an imminent threat?

我列举了一大堆不同的理由。

I rattled off a bunch of different stuff.

这是否意味着特朗普政府在不断改变其借口，还是说这些理由是被综合起来使用的？

Does that mean that the Trump administration was shifting its justification or that all of these things were kind of taken together?

政府为说明此次行动的必要性，提出了多个理由。

The administration had multiple arguments for why this needed to happen.

你确实把它们都列出来了。

You you did list them.

接着，他们极力论证为什么必须在周五晚上、周六凌晨采取行动。

Then they were really trying to make the case for the why now, Friday night, Saturday morning.

基本上，他们的论点是伊朗人很虚弱，正在朝核武器和导弹研发方向推进，可能会攻击美国人。

Basically, their case was the Iranians are weak, and they're making these moves towards nuclear development and missile development, and they might strike Americans.

他们实际上是在做防御性辩护，声称这是出于自卫，因为美国本土即将或几乎即将遭到直接威胁。

They're basically making a defensive case, saying that they're doing this out of self defense because the American homeland was gonna be or was nearly going to be directly targeted.

听好了。

Look.

伊朗政权令人憎恶，他们在一月份镇压了抗议者。

The Iranian regime is odious, and they did crack down on protesters in January.

几十年来，他们杀害了多名美国军人。

They had killed American service members over many decades.

他们在整个中东地区制造了恐怖和破坏。

They were responsible for terror and destruction throughout the Middle East.

但他们所提出的论点是，这个长期存在的伊朗威胁即将攻击美国人，或即将获得这种精密的导弹能力。

But the case they're making is that somehow this Iranian threat, which has existed for a long time, was going to attack Americans or was was near achieving this exquisite missile capability.

这与情报内容并不相符。

It's just not what is in the intelligence.

这与我们交谈过的安全官员所说的内容不符。

It's not what the security officials that we talked to are saying.

那是《华尔街日报》国家安全记者亚历克斯·沃德。

That was WSJ National Security reporter, Alex Ward.

谢谢，亚历克斯。

Thanks, Alex.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

接下来，今天市场经历了一番过山车式的波动。

Coming up, it was a roller coaster day in markets.

更多内容请关注广告后的报道。

That story and more after the break.

道琼斯指数今天交易中经历剧烈波动，上午下跌超过1200点，随后部分反弹，最终收跌约400点。

The Dow went on a wild ride in today's trading, dropping more than 1,200 points in the morning and then clawing back some of those losses to end about 400 points lower.

三大指数全天均下跌约百分之一。

All three of the indexes finished the day down roughly one percent.

财经市场记者汉娜·艾伦·朗表示，投资者正在对特朗普政府发出的不同信号作出反应。

Journal markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang says investors are reacting to different signals from the Trump administration.

如果这场冲突是短暂的、相对有限的，那么市场就能更容易地消化这种风险。

If this conflict is brief, if it's relatively contained, then the idea is that markets can digest that risk a little more easily.

随后，特朗普和其他官员发表了某些言论，似乎表明这场冲突将持续更长时间，这些袭击将持续数周而非数日。

Then Trump and other officials made some comments that seem to indicate that this would be a much more prolonged conflict, that these attacks would continue for weeks rather than days.

随后，特朗普总统表示，伊朗的军事力量在很大程度上已被瘫痪。

Then President Trump made some comments that Iran's military had largely been neutralized, he said.

我认为投资者可能因此获得了一些信心，或许有迹象表明，这场冲突不会像他们之前担心的那样持久，那么它对全球经济的影响会有多大呢？

And I think investors might have gained some confidence there that again, there's maybe some evidence that this won't last as long as they had feared, and therefore, what kind of impact how large of an impact is this going to have on the entire global economy?

油价持续飙升。

Oil prices continue to soar.

全球原油基准布伦特原油期货价格一度突破每桶85美元，这是自2024年以来的首次。

Futures for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly topped $85 a barrel for the first time since the 2024.

今天，美国普通汽油的平均价格每加仑上涨了11美分，达到3.11美元。

The average US price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose 11¢ to $3.11 today.

这仍然远低于2022年超过每加仑5美元的纪录。

That remains far off records of more than $5 a gallon from back in 2022.

特朗普总统今天表示，油价将在一段时间内保持高位，但一旦与伊朗的敌对行动结束，油价应该会下降。

President Trump said today that oil prices will be high, quote, for a little while, but should drop after hostilities with Iran end.

霍尔木兹海峡的油轮交通几乎陷入停滞，有超过3000艘船只等待通行。

Tanker traffic in the Strait Of Hormuz is at a virtual standstill with more than 3,000 ships waiting to get through.

特朗普总统今天下午表示，如果有必要，美国海军将为油轮护航通过霍尔木兹海峡。

President Trump said this afternoon that the US Navy will escort tankers through the Strait if necessary.

在最近一个季度，塔吉特的同店销售额下降了2.5%，这是其连续第十三个季度销售额疲软或下滑。

Target's comparable sales fell two and a half percent in the most recent quarter, its thirteenth straight quarter of weak or falling sales.

这家零售商的新首席执行官制定了一项计划，以帮助公司走出困境。

The retailer's new CEO has a plan to pull the company out of its funk.

塔吉特的商品陈列、购物体验和技术都有待改进。

Target's merchandising, shopping experience, and technology are all up for improvements.

今年，塔吉特预计净销售额将增长约2%。

For this year, Target expects net sales to grow around 2%.

股价收盘上涨超过6.7%。

Shares closed up more than 6.7%.

司法部今天告诉法院，它计划继续为总统特朗普签署的制裁律师事务所的行政命令进行辩护。

The justice department told a court today that it plans to press forward with the defense of president Trump's executive orders sanctioning law firms.

不到24小时前，司法部还请求驳回这些案件。

Less than twenty four hours ago, the justice department asked to drop the cases.

针对这些公司的行政命令包括撤销其安全许可并限制其进入联邦大楼。

The executive orders punishing the firms included stripping security clearances and restricted their access to federal buildings.

随后，几家律师事务所提起诉讼并赢得了官司。

Several firms then sued and won in court.

特朗普政府对此提出了上诉。

The Trump administration appealed.

今天是德克萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州的初选日。

And today is the primary election in Texas and North Carolina.

备受关注的选举胜出者将参加11月的普选，其结果可能改变参议院的权力平衡。

The winners of the closely watched races will compete in November's general election, and the outcome could tip the balance of the senate.

今晚请访问wsj.com获取最新结果和分析。

Go to wsj.com tonight for results and analysis.

以上就是今天周二下午的新闻。

And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon.

本期节目由皮埃尔·比内梅制作，主管制片人为塔利·阿尔贝尔。

Today's show is produced by Pierre Bienaime with supervising producer Tali Arbel.

我是亚历克斯·奥斯列夫，来自《华尔街日报》。

I'm Alex Osolev for The Wall Street Journal.

我们明天早上再见，带来新的节目。

We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.