人工智能与流媒体泡沫破裂将把好莱坞带向何方？

嘿，What's News的听众们。今天是10月12日星期日，我是《华尔街日报》的凯特·布洛文特。这里是《What's News周日版》，我们通过联系新闻编辑部的同事来帮助解释世界上正在发生的事情，从而探讨新闻中最重大故事背后的重大问题。本周，好莱坞正处于危机模式，这个历史上电影和电视制作的中心看起来更像是一部灾难片，而不是一部光鲜浪漫的喜剧。

Hey, What's News listeners. It's Sunday, October 12. I'm Kate Bulovant for The Wall Street Journal. This is What's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news by reaching out to our colleagues across the newsroom to help explain what's happening in our world. This week, Hollywood is in crisis mode, with the historic center of film and TV production looking more like a disaster movie than a glamorous rom com.

许多媒体公司正在寻找其他更便宜的地方来制作他们的节目，比如迪士尼的漫威工作室，它在英国制作了许多超级英雄电影，以及Netflix，它在新墨西哥州扩建了制作设施。与此同时，人工智能的存在正在阴影中潜伏。今年早些时候，奥斯卡奖的组织者宣布，借助人工智能制作的电影将能够赢得最高奖项。你可能听说过所谓的AI演员蒂莉·诺伍德，她正受到艾玛·斯通等一线明星的批评。那么，好莱坞是如何跟上这些变化的呢？

Many media houses are finding other, cheaper places to make their shows, like Disney's Marvel Studios, which makes many of its superhero movies in The UK, and Netflix, which has expanded a production facility in New Mexico. Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows is the increasing presence of artificial intelligence. Earlier this year, organizers of the Oscars announced that films made with the help of AI will be able to win top awards. And you might have heard of the so called AI actor Tilly Norwood, who's drawing criticism from some A list celebrities like Emma Stone. So how are Hollywood keeping up with these changes?

人工智能的崛起对更广泛的内容创作意味着什么？为了深入探讨这个问题，我邀请了《华尔街日报》娱乐记者本·弗里茨和乔·弗林特。本，我想先从好莱坞开始。为什么我们在电视和电影制作方面看到这种螺旋式下降？

And what does the rise in AI mean for content creation more broadly? To help dig into this, I'm joined by Journal Entertainment reporters Ben Fritz and Joe Flint. Ben, I want to start by focusing on Hollywood. Why are we seeing this downward spiral when it comes to TV and film production?

简短的答案是，流媒体泡沫已经破裂。在2010年代末和2020年代初，HBO Max、Disney+、Apple TV和Netflix等流媒体服务曾疯狂扩张。然后几年前，投资者开始重新调整，说我们不再关心增长，我们关心利润。当然，从增长转向利润的最简单方法就是削减成本，减少制作内容。

The very short answer is that the streaming bubble has popped. There was in the late twenty tens and early twenty twenties, this huge rush to establish and grow streaming services like HBO Max and Disney plus and Apple TV and Netflix. And then investors a couple of years ago started to reshift and say, we don't care about growth. We care about profits. And, of course, the easiest way to shift from growth to profits is to cut costs and make less stuff.

因此，制片厂大幅削减了尤其是为流媒体制作的电视剧数量。与此同时，他们正在制作的内容，尤其是大预算电影，越来越多地在海外制作，以获得更大的税收优惠和更便宜的劳动力。所以你看到很多电影在加拿大、英国甚至东欧制作。

So the studio significantly cut back on the amount of especially TV shows for streaming that they were making. And then combined with that, the stuff that they are making, especially when it comes to big budget movies, they're increasingly making overseas where they can get bigger tax credits and cheaper labor. So you see a lot of movies being made in Canada, in The UK, even in Eastern Europe.

这一切对洛杉矶的经济意味着什么，特别是对那些并非一线明星的工人来说？

And what does all of this mean for LA's economy, and in particular, for workers who aren't the kind of star studded A list celebrities?

有数十万人在幕后从事非常中产阶级的工作。他们是摄影师、化妆师、助理导演、动画师，他们在很多方面是洛杉矶中产阶级的核心。在过去几十年的大部分时间里，他们的工作相当稳定。但现在不是了。在洛杉矶，根本没有足够的工作给他们。

There are hundreds of thousands of people who work behind the scenes in very middle class jobs. They are the camera operators, the makeup artists, the assistant directors, the animators, and they are in many ways the heart of Los Angeles' middle class. And for most of the last several decades, they've worked pretty consistently. Now they're not. There is simply not enough work for them in Los Angeles.

他们确实处境艰难。显然，这对他们来说是经济和情感上的双重打击。当然，这也波及到洛杉矶的整体经济，因为这些人的消费能力下降了。

They're really struggling. And obviously, that's financially and emotionally painful for them. And of course, it ripples throughout LA's economy because these people are spending less money.

特朗普总统提议对在美国境外制作的电影征收100%关税。这反映了行业怎样的现状？

President Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on films made outside of The US. What does this tell us about the state of the industry?

这说明美国尤其是加州的影视制作业严峻形势已引起总统关注。这是个重大经济问题。但任何懂娱乐业经济的人都会告诉你，关税并非解决之道。电影不是通过港口入境的实体商品，无法征收关税。影视从业者真正需要的是联邦税收抵免政策，比如15%的返税比例，让政府实质上补贴制片方在本土的制作成本。

Well, it tells us that the dire state of movie and TV production in The United States, especially in California, is getting the attention of the president. It's a significant economic issue. However, if you talk to anybody who understands the economics of entertainment, they'll tell you a tariff is not the solution. You can't tariff a movie because it's not physical good that comes in through a port. What people who work in movies and TV really want is a federal tax credit, something like 15% where the government would essentially refund producers the cost of making stuff here.

英国这么做，加拿大这么做，乔治亚州、纽约州、加州等若干州也这么做。但倡导者认为，我们需要在部分州现有政策基础上再加联邦税收抵免，才能让美国重获竞争力。

That's what The UK does. That's what Canada does. That's what several states like Georgia, New York, California do. But if you talk to the advocates, we really need a federal tax credit on top of the ones in some states in order to make The US competitive again.

我们之前提到人工智能在好莱坞初现端倪。比如这个由荷兰演员兼喜剧人创造的所谓AI演员蒂莉·诺伍德。以下是蒂莉的短片片段：'我的存在建立在所有前人的基础上。'蒂莉的创造者表示，这个合成表演者并非要取代人类，而是件创意作品。

We mentioned earlier about how artificial intelligence is beginning to crop up in Hollywood. There's this so called AI actor Tilly Norwood, created by a Dutch actor and comedian. Here's a short clip of Tilly. I'm built on everything that came before me. Tilly's creator says the synthetic performer isn't meant to replace a human being, but is instead a creative work.

乔，能否谈谈AI的兴起对这个地区产生了什么影响？

Joe, can you tell us what impact the increase of AI is having in the district?

人们对AI有很多担忧。不仅限于人造女演员这类概念，还包括AI生成电影剧本和素材的创造力问题——担心制片公司高管直接对AI说'给我弄个精彩的银行劫案电影'，两秒后就能基于成千上万被AI抓取的劫案剧本生成新剧本。当然AI也能为行业带来很多积极影响。

There's a lot of concerns about AI. It doesn't just extend to artificial actresses, if you will. But it's also the creative in terms of generating scripts and materials for movies and the fear that a studio exec will just say to AI, give me a good bank heist movie. And then two seconds later, there's a script based on thousands of other bank heist scripts that have been scraped into AI. There's a lot of good that AI can do in the industry.

显然，仅仅是物理选址、确定最佳实践以及如何节省成本。但创意群体——包括编剧、制片人和演员——感到不满的是被AI取代的想法。

Obviously, just physical locations and determining best practices and how to save some money. But where the creative community gets upset, both writers, producers, and actors, is the idea of being replaced by AI.

所以这是担忧与机遇并存。本，关于AI在行业中的应用，我们是否看到了一些规则出台？

So a mix of concerns and opportunities. Ben, are we seeing any rules when it comes to the use of AI in the industry?

2023年演员和编剧工会举行了罢工，他们的主要诉求之一就是防止AI实质上取代他们。他们争取到的基本保障是：如果制片方想用AI进行编剧或表演，必须与工会协商具体条款。因为目前尚无明确协议。而他们尚未这么做，这说明大型制片公司还未试图用AI取代编剧或演员。但从事动画和视觉特效工作的人们非常担忧。

The actors and writers unions went on strike in 2023, and one of their major demands was protections against the use of AI in place of them, essentially. And basic protections they had is that if the studios want to use AI to write or to act, they have to go to the guild and work out specific terms for how to do it. Because right now, there's no specific agreement. And they haven't done that yet, which tells you the major studios are not yet trying to replace writers or actors with AI. People who work in areas like animation and visual effects are very afraid.

这些领域的工作者尚未有工会提供保护。而这些正是AI已经开始涉足的工作类型——比如创建动画角色、为场景制作动画背景等。许多以此为生的艺术家正面临生存危机。

They don't have unions that have protections for them in those areas yet. And those are definitely the kind of work that AI is already starting to do. Create an animated character, create an animated background for a scene, that kind of thing. And there's a lot of artists who make a living doing that.

本，结合你之前概述的好莱坞面临的挑战——这些已对洛杉矶经济产生广泛影响——再加上人工智能的崛起。这是否意味着我们所熟知的好莱坞即将终结？如果是，好莱坞的未来会是什么样子？

Ben, with the challenges you outlined earlier that Hollywood's facing, which is having a broader impact on LA's economy, that added with the rise artificial intelligence. Does this mean that Hollywood as we know it is coming to an end? And if so, what does the future of Hollywood look like?

我认为好莱坞终结的可能性极低。乐观主义者会指出，历史上每次颠覆性技术出现时，人们都担心好莱坞会消亡，但最终结果总是向好——无论是电影有声化、电视、录像带、DVD还是网络流媒体，最终都成为好莱坞的福音。但这不意味着现在就能高枕无忧。乐观派认为，AI确实可能减少就业岗位，但同时会降低成本，使独立制片人能以更低预算制作优质电影。

I mean, I highly doubt Hollywood's coming to an end. If you talk to optimists, they'll point out that every disruptive technology in the past, people have feared it's gonna be the end of Hollywood, and things have worked out for the best, whether it's sound in movies, whether it's television, VCRs, DVDs, Internet streaming. It's always turned out to be a boon for Hollywood in the end. But that doesn't mean it's guaranteed now. One thing optimists say is that, yes, AI could eliminate jobs, but it also will bring down the cost, means independent filmmakers can make a really good movie on a much lower budget.

因此未来可能会看到每部影视作品的制作人员减少，但由于单部作品成本降低，整体产量可能会大幅增加。

So you might see fewer people working on each movie and TV show, but a lot more stuff getting made because it's cheaper to make each thing.

接下来，我们将探讨人工智能生成内容的大潮如何影响整个创意产业。广告之后继续。好莱坞能否抵御AI内容热潮尚无定论。但乔，电影之外的其他创意产业对此有何感受？

Coming up, we look at how the incoming tide of content generated by artificial intelligence is being felt across the creative industry as a whole. That's after the break. So the jury is still out on how Hollywood will withstand the AI content boom. But Joe, how is this being felt across other creative industries outside of film?

音乐公司也对AI深感忧虑。我个人很喜欢那些突然出现在推荐里的ACDC伪放克翻唱，但可以想象ACDC乐队或其唱片公司若未获补偿绝不会开心。所以不仅是好莱坞，整个娱乐产业都面临冲击。

The music labels are also very concerned about AI. I certainly enjoy those fake funk covers of ACDC songs now popping up in my feed. But I can't imagine that ACDC or their label is too happy about it if they're not getting any compensation. So it's not just Hollywood. It's the entertainment industry at large.

音乐、电视皆然。所有这些都是新技术。而行业对新技术的本能反应永远是：这对我们的利润意味着什么？然后无论如何先抵制变革。最终这些技术又都会被吸纳。

It's music. It's TV. And all these things are new technologies. And the general reaction to new technologies, of course, is what does it mean for our bottom line and resist change no matter what? And eventually, these things become incorporated.

如今的YouTube在很多方面成为内容创作者的沃土——那些可能无缘Netflix合约的人。他们不需要好莱坞大经纪人为其制作节目，只需上传YouTube。若作品出色，最终仍可能登上更大平台。因此AI也可能是开启机遇之门的技术。

YouTube now in many ways is a fertile ground for content makers who maybe can't get a deal with Netflix. They don't have a big Hollywood agent to make their show, but they can go on YouTube. And if they do something that's done well, well, then it can end up on one of those other places. So this can also be a door opening technology as well.

根据你的报道，不同创意产业对AI应用采取了哪些策略？整体而言，人们是在接纳还是抵制这项技术？

And from your reporting, what strategies are different creative industries taking when it comes to using AI? Do you get the sense that people on the whole are embracing it or turning against it?

目前AI多被用于快速处理事务，比如剧本摘要。过去在好莱坞，新人从收发室晋升后的首个岗位常是剧本审读员，负责做笔记和撰写剧情概要。现在只需把剧本导入AI就能获得相当不错的摘要。

It's being used for a lot of quick ways to get through stuff, summarizing scripts. It used to be in Hollywood, one of the positions you might first start out with after you were done with the mail room was being a script reader and making notes and writing descriptions of scripts. And now you can download that script into AI and get a pretty good summary of it.

需要指出的是，大型专业公司在内容生产方面仍进展缓慢——他们还在谨慎评估是否及如何将AI融入工作流程。像梦工厂、皮克斯这些知名动画公司动作都很保守。但反观YouTube，半职业动画师们已在大量运用AI进行创作了。

Just gonna point out there's a lot at the big professional companies when it comes to content production, they're still moving very slowly figuring out whether and how to integrate AI into their workflows. You talk to the big animation companies, the big brands you've heard of DreamWorks, Pixar, etc. They're moving pretty slowly. But if you look on YouTube, there are semi professional animators who are making lots of stuff with AI right now, for example.

那么最后，你能为我们全面分析一下吗？人工智能的影响，真正会产生哪些实际效果？我们现在就能感受到这些影响，还是这更多是一个长期的过程？

So finally, can you put this all into perspective for us? The impact of AI, what are the kind of real effects going to be? Are we going to feel those now, or is it going to be really more of a long term thing?

这绝对是个长期过程，因为好莱坞适应新技术的速度非常缓慢，要真正将这些技术整合到制作流程中并与工会达成共识将极具挑战性。但你肯定会逐渐看到许多初级入门岗位、助理类工作被AI取代。由于现在YouTube等平台有大量非好莱坞制作的内容产出，你会看到那里涌现大量AI实验作品。其中必然会出现一些成功案例，这些成功将影响所有人的内容生产方式。悲观的未来是，所有试图谋生的创意工作者都将无法再以此维生。

It's definitely a longer term thing because Hollywood is very slow to adapt to new technologies, and figuring out how to really integrate this stuff into their production processes and deal with the unions is gonna be very challenging. But you are definitely gonna slowly but steadily see a lot of junior entry level jobs, assistant type work being overtaken by AI. And because there's so much content being produced outside Hollywood now on YouTube, you're gonna see a lot of experimentation with AI there. And you'll certainly start to see some stuff really click and some stuff succeed, and that will impact how everybody produces stuff. The pessimistic future is all the creative people who are trying to earn a living can't make money at it anymore.

而乐观的未来是，任何有创意构想的人都能更轻松地将其实现，我们将迎来一场创意复兴。

And the optimistic future is it makes it easier for anybody who has a creative vision to actually bring that to life, and we can see a creative renaissance.

我认为整个行业都存在广泛担忧，未来几年娱乐产业与科技产业之间、创意高管与这些新技术之间将充满张力，这将深刻影响娱乐产业形态和观众的娱乐消费方式。最终由消费者决定——如果消费者不介意虚拟偶像Tilly Norwood，那对其他人就是坏消息；但如果消费者坚持需要真人、真明星和真实剧本，那就无需担忧。

I just think there's a lot of concern in the industry at large and there's going to be a lot of tension in the years ahead between the entertainment industry and the tech industry and between creative executives and all of these technologies and what it's going to mean for entertainment and how people view entertainment. Ultimately, the consumer decides. If the consumer doesn't have a problem with Tilly Norwood, well, then bad news for everyone else. But if the consumer is like, no, I need real people and real stars and real scripts, well, then there would be nothing to worry about.

本、乔，非常感谢你们抽空参与。

Ben, Joe, thanks so much for your time.

谢谢，这是我的荣幸。

Thank you. My pleasure.

以上就是10月12日《周日新动态》的全部内容。本期节目由佐伊·卡尔金制作，副主编克里斯·辛斯利协助。我是凯特·布勒瓦，明天早晨我们将带来全新节目。感谢收听，我们明天见。

And that's it for What's New Sunday for October 12. Today's show was produced by Zoe Culkin with Deputy Editor Chris Sinsley. I'm Kate Boulevant and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a brand new show. Until then, thanks for listening.