为什么特朗普现在打击伊朗

嘿。

Hey.

新闻听众们，有什么新消息？

What's News listeners.

今天是2月28日，星期六。

It's Saturday, February 28.

我是卢克·瓦加斯，来自《华尔街日报》，这里是《今日新闻》特别版，提前在这个周末为您带来深度报道——就在今天早些时候，美国对伊朗发动了大规模军事行动，我们来探讨其中的关键问题。

I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and this is What's News Sunday coming to you early this weekend to dig into the big questions after The US launched major combat operations against Iran earlier today.

在美国与以色列的协调下，美军已针对伊朗的领导层及其军事设施发动打击，这被视为特朗普总统希望终结德黑兰政权的前奏。

In coordination with Israel, American strikes have targeted Iran's leadership and its military assets, the prelude to what president Trump hopes is an end to the regime in Tehran.

不出所料，伊朗正在反击，向以色列以及中东地区的美军基地发射导弹和无人机。

Unsurprisingly, Iran is hitting back, firing missiles and drones at Israel and at US bases across the Middle East.

尽管目前仍处于初期阶段，但这些袭击——正是华盛顿及海外各方多年来或担忧、或期盼看到的——正使局势面临升级为更广泛冲突的风险。

While it's still early hours, the attacks that various factions in Washington and abroad have either feared or longed to see for decades are risking a wider conflict.

今天，我们将第一时间跟进美国的袭击行动和伊朗的回应，并分析这种升级的可能性。

Today, we'll get the very latest on The US attacks and Iran's response and look at the likelihood of just such an escalation.

我们要讲的内容很多，所以直接开始吧。

We've got a lot to cover, so let's get right to it.

几周以来，我们一直在关注美国在中东地区军事力量的集结。

For weeks now, we have been watching the accumulation of US military assets in The Middle East.

昨晚，美军利用海基和空基平台对伊朗全境发动了袭击，包括首都德黑兰。

And overnight, the US military pulled the trigger using sea and air based platforms to launch strikes across Iran, including the capital Tehran.

伊朗最高领袖是目标之一，但目前他的状况尚不明确，此时此刻许多信息仍不清楚，因此我想请两位《华尔街日报》的同事来帮助我们拨开战争迷雾，并为我们准备报道可能持续数日的、从华盛顿发出的密集打击行动。

Iran's supreme leader was among those targeted, though his condition is currently unknown as is a lot else at this hour, which is why I wanna introduce now a pair of journal colleagues who are here to help us cut through the fog of war and help prepare for what we report could be days of intensive strikes on the line from Washington.

他是《华尔街日报》国家安全记者亚历克斯·沃德，来自伊斯坦布尔的还有《华尔街日报》中东记者贾里德·马尔森。

His journal, national security reporter Alex Ward, and from Istanbul, we're joined by journal Middle East correspondent Jared Malson.

亚历克斯，我先从你开始，让我们听听特朗普总统今天早上的表态，他为这些袭击辩护，并做了一番历史回顾。

Alex, let me start with you, and let's hear from president Trump here who this morning made the case for these attacks and offered something of a history lesson, really.

四十七年来，伊朗政权一直高呼‘打倒美国’，并持续发动血腥暴力和大规模谋杀，针对美国、我们的士兵以及许多国家的无辜平民。

For forty seven years, the Iranian regime has chanted death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder targeting The United States, our troops, and the innocent people in many, many countries.

最近，关于伊朗的焦点大多集中在它的核计划和导弹计划上。

Alex, so much of the focus on Iran lately has been about its nuclear program, its missile program.

这些议题几天前还是谈判的主题。

These things, were the subject of negotiations just a few days ago.

那么，总统在这里引用完全不同的内容，提及这段历史，意义何在呢？

How significant is it then that the president here is citing something quite different, invoking all of that history?

我的意思是，我认为他只是想给这一切加上一个历史背景，但这并不是重点。

Mean, I I think he's just trying to put a historical framing on all of this, but that's not what this is about.

他的主要论点是，伊朗几乎快要获得核武器，并且几乎快要研发出能够打击美国的导弹。根据公开的情报，包括一些民主党人现在看到的情报，伊朗由于去年六月的空袭，可能已经提纯了铀，但其实并没有能力将这些铀转化为足够制造武器的燃料。

His main arguments have been that they are pretty close to acquiring a nuclear weapon and that they're pretty close to developing a missile that could hit The United States Based on publicly available intelligence and including some statements coming from Democrats now who are seeing that intelligence, Iran, because of the strikes from last year, last June, you know, they might have enriched uranium, but really no ability to turn that into enough fuel for a weapon.

即使伊朗做出了这一选择，要制造洲际弹道导弹也至少还需要数年时间。

The ability to make an intercontinental ballistic missile was probably years away from being done assuming the Iranians had made that choice.

我们还应该记得，今年一月伊朗爆发抗议时，特朗普曾表示他将发动打击以保护抗议者。

And we should also remember that in January when there were protests in Iran, Trump said he was gonna strike to defend the protesters.

因此，特朗普给出过一连串他要采取行动的理由。

So there have been a slew of reasons for why Trump said he's gonna do this.

历史这一说法，看起来更像是装点门面，而非真正原因。

The history bit just seemed more window dressing than anything else.

总统在这里要求的东西真的很多啊，杰瑞德。

The president is really seeking a a lot here, Jared.

除了无核武器、无导弹计划外，总统还要求彻底摧毁伊朗海军，命令伊朗军队和警察放下武器，否则必死无疑。

In addition to no nuclear weapons, no missile program, we have annihilating the Iranian navy, the president ordering Iranian troops and police to lay down their weapons or face certain death.

你对这一切有什么看法？

What's your reaction to all this?

这些目标都非常广泛。

They are very far reaching aims.

他还誓言要将伊朗的导弹计划连根拔起，并打击伊朗的核设施。

He also vowed to raise the Iranian missile program to the ground and strike Iranian nuclear sites.

他还呼吁伊朗人民起义推翻政权，这正是他所说的最终目标。

And he also called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow the regime, which is the end goal that he says he wants.

今天早上，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡也表达了同样的目标。

That's also the aim articulated this morning by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

这引发了许多问题，即美国和以色列打算如何实现这一最终状态。

And it raises a lot of questions now about how the Americans and the Israelis intend to achieve that end state.

他们说，这场军事行动结束后，他们会呼吁伊朗人民真正实现这一目标。

They are saying that after this military campaign is over, they're going to call on Iranians to actually accomplish that.

如果普通伊朗人真的出去试图推翻政权，他们将把自己的生命置于危险之中。

If they do go out and try to overthrow the regime, ordinary Iranians that is, they'll be putting their lives at risk.

我的意思是，我们能否从这些袭击中看到一些早期的迹象或线索，表明它们在多大程度上与这些目标一致？

I mean, do we have any early answers, signals we can see from these attacks about how well they they line up with those goals?

根据我们的报道，我们知道美国人正在与以色列人协同行动，针对政权的高层领导进行打击。

From our reporting, we know that the Americans are striking along with the Israelis who have targeted the senior leadership of the regime.

我们还不清楚这些袭击的确切结果如何。

We don't know what exactly what the outcome of those strikes were.

当然，我们还有特朗普今天早上发布视频中亲自列出的袭击目标清单。

And then, of course, we have the list of targets that Trump himself outlined in his video that he released early this morning.

除此之外，我们实际上并不清楚更多细节。

Beyond that, we don't really know.

我们可以推测，政府正在评估伊朗政权，认为由于去年与以色列的战争、伊朗的经济危机以及伊朗国内的抗议活动，该政权比多年来任何时候都更加脆弱。

We can assume that the administration is looking at the Iranian regime, understanding that they are more vulnerable than they've been in years as a result of the war with Israel last year, the economic crisis in Iran, and, of course, the protests themselves inside Iran.

然而，历史上真正因空袭而导致政权垮台的例子极少。

That said, there are very few examples in history really of any regime falling as a result of an air war.

因此，这引发了人们对这场行动最终目标的疑问。

And so it raises questions about what the endgame of this is.

可以说，如果美国真的打算全面落实总统所勾勒的那些目标，还有大量工作有待完成。

It seems like a a lot of work, safe to say, remains to be done here if The US really does intend to follow through on all those goals the president sketched out.

我想再播放一段特朗普总统今天早上就这次重大军事行动所发表的讲话。

And and I wanna play another clip of what president Trump said speaking this morning about this major combat operation.

他特别强调，这里需要耐心和毅力，甚至可能要接受美国士兵的牺牲。

He really sought to emphasize patience, endurance is gonna be needed here, including potentially comfort with the loss of American lives.

伊朗政权意图杀人。

The Iranian regime seeks to kill.

勇敢的美国英雄的生命可能会丧失，战争中往往会有伤亡。

The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties that often happens in war.

但我们这么做，并非为了当下。

But we're doing this not for now.

我们这样做是为了未来，这是一项崇高的使命。

We're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.

亚历克斯，对于那些听众来说，他们可能会试图将今天发生的情况与今年早些时候推翻委内瑞拉的尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动进行对比，这里有一个明显的不同之处：那就是在为可能发生的美军伤亡做心理准备。

Alex, for those listeners, you know, kinda trying to hear parallels between what's playing out today and the operation, earlier this year to remove Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, here's one area where it just seems like the messaging is already very different, preparing people for the potential loss of American lives.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，委内瑞拉和伊朗非常不同。

I mean, Venezuela and Iran are are very, very different.

那些行动更像是一次性或至少风险较低的行动。

Those are more sort of one and done or at least lower risk operations.

这次行动没有任何低风险可言。

There is nothing low risk about this.

可能会有数日的空袭，使美国飞行员以及驻中东的美军处于危险之中。

There'll be days of airstrikes that could put American pilots and, of course, American troops in The Middle East in harm's way.

谁知道美国是否最终会派遣地面部队，比如特种作战部队。

Who knows if The US will at some point have ground troops in the form of special operations forces.

而且，这还只是在未考虑局势可能失控并演变为更广泛的地区战争之前。

And that's even before we get to the fact that this could spiral into a broader regional war if not contained.

因此，这无疑是特朗普任期内最大的风险。

So this is by far the biggest risk by president Trump in either of his terms.

这很可能是他总统任期的决定性时刻，无论最终结果是推翻政权——这正是他所追求的——还是陷入一场未必能推翻政权的混乱局面，甚至即使推翻了政权，也可能留下一个引发动荡的权力真空。

And it is likely gonna be the defining moment of his presidency, whether it's ends with some sort of toppling of the regime because that's what he's after, or what could be a mess that doesn't necessarily lead to the toppling of regime, or even if it does, a a vacuum that could cause chaos.

因此，总统此举是一场巨大的赌博。

So it's a massive gamble by the president here.

有趣的是，他谈到伤亡时，试图避免某些反对声音，毕竟，他所领导的MAGA运动多年来一直承诺不会发动政权更迭战争，而我们现在却走到了这一步。

And it's interesting to hear him talk about the casualties because he's trying to avoid certain pushback because of course, the MAGA movement that he leads, he has promised for many years he would not execute a regime change war, and here we are.

明白了。

Okay.

试图在必要时动用一些额外的政治资本。

Trying to borrow some some excess political capital should it be necessary.

但从操作层面来看，我们对美国能否维持这样一场可能长期的军事行动了解多少？

But just operationally, what do we know about the extent to which The US can sustain a a potentially prolonged military campaign like this?

因此，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军建议特朗普，这场行动不太可能像最初讨论的那样持续数周。

So the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, general Dan Cain, has advised Trump that it's unlikely that this could go on for weeks as was sort of initially discussed.

根据美国现有的弹药和武器储备，这场行动可能只能持续几天，最多一两周。

It could probably go on for days, maybe a week or two in terms of munitions, in terms of weapons The US has.

因此，总统必须在比最初预期短得多的时间内实现他的目标。

So the president's gonna want to have to achieve his goals in a relatively short amount of time, compared to what they were initially signaling.

杰瑞德，转向伊朗方面。

Jared, over to Iran.

到目前为止，我们看到他们的回应如何？

What have we seen in in terms of their response so far?

伊朗方面承诺将作出严厉回应，目前他们已经在一定程度上兑现了这一承诺，发动了导弹袭击，声称目标是波斯湾地区多个美军基地，当然也包括以色列。

Well, the Iranians promised a harsh response, and they are delivering to some degree on that response so far with missile strikes, they say targeting US bases across the Persian Gulf region, and then, of course, also hitting Israel.

你已经看到针对阿联酋、卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯等地基地的袭击，遍及整个海湾地区。

You've had strikes on bases in The United Arab Emirates, in Qatar, and in Saudi Arabia, so across the Gulf region.

而这些海湾国家，事实上，过去几周以来一直在幕后积极努力，试图缓和局势、寻找外交出路，因为他们担心的正是这种局面。

And for those Gulf countries who, by the way, diplomatically, for weeks now, have been pushing behind the scenes very hard to try to deescalate, to try to find a diplomatic off ramp from this crisis because they were worried about precisely this scenario.

显然，关于伊朗自身能够维持这种回应多久，仍然存在疑问。

There's obviously still questions about how long the Iranians themselves can sustain their own response.

他们在去年夏天与以色列的十二天战争后，导弹库存已经耗尽，我们推测他们的军事设施目前也正在遭受攻击。

Their supply of missiles is depleted after the twelve day war with Israel last summer, and their military sites, we presume, are also under attack right now.

尽管如此，这已经对地区和全球经济造成了巨大干扰，因为波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡无疑是全球最重要的能源运输通道，而现在却处于火力范围之内。

Nonetheless, it is already a very disruptive event for the region and for the global economy because, obviously, the Persian Gulf and the Straits Of Hormuz being perhaps the world's most important energy shipping lane that's now in the line of fire.

那将是他们的王牌。

That would be kind of their trump card.

对吧？

Right?

关闭霍尔木兹海峡，同时激活他们在中东各地的代理网络——这两点我们至今尚未看到，但这些筹码他们理论上仍然保留着。

Closing down The Straits and probably activating their network of proxy groups around the Middle East too, neither of which we've seen yet, but those are cards they conceivably retain.

这些筹码他们依然可以使用，而我们目前显然还没有看到。

Those are cards that they can still play, and we haven't seen that yet, obviously.

但即使仅凭这次初步的回应，我们已经看到他们有能力在该地区造成破坏并导致伤亡。

But, even with this initial response, we've already seen that they can inflict damage, and they can cause casualties across the region.

我们得短暂休息一下。

We've gotta take a very short break.

但回来后，我们将探讨华盛顿针对这些美军袭击所引发的政治争论，以及美国在中东的盟友如何被卷入这场冲突，还有可能触发伊朗政权更迭的条件。

But when we come back, we'll look at the political debate breaking out in Washington in response to these US attacks, as well as how America's partners around The Middle East are getting pulled into this conflict and what it could take to trigger regime change in Iran.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

亚历克斯，你就在华盛顿。

Alex, you're there in Washington.

我知道你今天早上很早就跟一位参议员通了电话，他是总统的盟友。

I know you were on the phone very early this morning with one senator, an ally of the president.

国会山现在有什么风声？

What's the buzz on Capitol Hill?

这些袭击在民主党人和共和党人中反响如何？

How are these attacks going over with Democrats and Republicans?

而且，就像我们之前休息前讨论的那样，华盛顿方面有多大的意愿支持美国在这里展开一场持久的军事行动？

And and, you know, kinda to the point we were discussing before the break, How much willingness is there in Washington for The US to get into a sustained military operation here?

是的。

Yeah.

我打破了早起采访参议员的记录，大约在凌晨四点。

I broke my record for an, early senator interview by several hours, about four in the morning.

嗯，这里大致有三个派系。

And look, there's kind of three ish factions here.

我的意思是，简单来说，其中两个属于共和党。

I mean, to oversimplify, two of which are in the Republican Party.

你可以想象，民主党人非常不满。

So Democrats, you can imagine, are very upset.

对吧？

Right?

没有国会授权。

There's no congressional authorization.

他们认为这是一场错误的战争，特朗普政府夸大了他们关于伊朗计划和当前能力的情报。

They feel that this is a misguided war, that the Trump administration exaggerated the intelligence that they had about what Iran was planning and its current capabilities.

他们一直在推动下周进行战争权力投票，这可能会举行，但即使通过了，你知道，现在这还重要吗？

They've been pushing for a war powers vote next week, which could take place, but say it even passes, you know, what does it matter at this point?

战争已经开始了。

The war has begun.

在共和党内部，像格雷厄姆参议员这样的建制派对此事的发生感到欣喜若狂。

Then within the Republican party, you've got the, establishment types like senator Graham, is ecstatic that this has happened.

他一直推动这件事直到

He's been pushing for this for

他不就是你那个清晨采访的对象吗？

He was your early morning interview, was he not?

没错。

That's right.

他就是我那个清晨采访的对象。

He was my early morning interview.

他说，这某种程度上是他一直以来的梦想。

He was he said it was a dream of his, kinda, for this to happen.

还有像情报委员会主席汤姆·科顿参议员、克鲁兹参议员这样的人。

And there are others like senator Tom Cotton who leads the intelligence committee, you know, senator Cruz.

有很多共和党人对这件事的发生感到欣喜若狂。

There are many of of Republicans out there who are ecstatic that this is happening.

然后你还有MAGA派系。

And then you've got the MAGA wing.

像来自肯塔基州的众议员托马斯·马西这样的政客，他经常与特朗普发生争执。

And those are some lawmakers like Thomas Massey from Kentucky, the the the house member who often tussles with Trump.

但他们在政府之外也有MAGA人物，比如塔克·卡尔森，他曾对ABC新闻表示，他认为这是一次令人厌恶的攻击。

But they also have, you know, MAGA figures outside of government, like, say, Tucker Carlson, who told ABC News that he considered this a disgusting, quote, unquote, attack.

那么，MAGA在这件事上是否在某种程度上与特朗普分道扬镳了？

So does MAGA split with Trump to a certain extent over this?

我的意思是，MAGA无论特朗普做什么，都一直紧紧追随他，但现在大家都在关注这个政治动态。

I mean, MAGA has proved to be pretty sticky and staying with with Trump, no matter what he does, but that's sort of the political bit everyone's watching now.

杰里德，海湾国家对这一切的反应与此相比如何？

Jared, how does that compare to the reaction to all this from The Gulf States?

已经有相当多的国家被卷入了这件事。

There's already really been a quite a long list of countries who've been pulled into this.

我认为我们尤其需要密切关注海湾国家的反应。

I think we need to be closely watching the reaction from the Gulf States, especially.

我再怎么强调也不为过，这个国家集团加上埃及和土耳其。

I cannot stress enough this block of countries along with Egypt and Turkey.

因此，该地区一大批美国盟友事先都向特朗普政府游说，不要采取这一行动。

So a broad array of US allies in the region all lobbied the Trump administration not to do this ahead of time.

该地区的背景是，此事发生在伊斯兰教的圣月——斋月期间。

The context in the region is that this is happening in the middle of Ramadan, which is a holy month in Islam.

这是穆斯林从日出到日落禁食、进行安静宗教反思的时期。

It's a time when practicing Muslims are fasting from sunup to sundown, and it's a time of quiet religious reflection.

当然，这也是大规模宗教朝圣的时期，超过一百万朝圣者前往沙特阿拉伯的麦加。

And of course, it's a time of a massive religious pilgrimage in which more than a million pilgrims travel to Saudi Arabia to go to Mecca.

而现在，由于领空关闭，无人能出行，这无疑给他们带来了巨大问题。

And now you have a huge disruption where the airspace is closed, no one's able to travel, and that's obviously a huge problem for them.

此外，他们还遭受了伊朗导弹的袭击。

And then in addition to that, they're also under fire from these Iranian missiles that are happening.

因此，这对美国与这些国家的合作构成了巨大考验，这些国家作为一个整体，已决定不允许美国使用其基地对伊朗发动袭击。

So it is a huge test of The US partnership with those countries who also, as a group, decided to disallow The US from using their bases to launch strikes on Iran.

这一决定将在未来几天接受考验。

And that decision is also going to be tested in the coming days.

我想回到伊朗的话题上。

I wanna return to Iran.

杰里德，你之前提到过，美国期望抗议者在此次行动中发挥作用，最终推翻伊朗政权，这将是一个重大转变。

Jared, earlier, you had sort of mentioned, the role that the The US envisions for protesters that are sort of picking up and delivering the fatal blow of this operation, which would be a change in Iran's leadership.

让我们听一段特朗普总统对此的发言。

Let's hear a clip of president Trump on that point.

当我们完成时，就接管你们的政府吧。

When we are finished, take over your government.

这将是你们去夺取的。

It will be yours to take.

这可能是你们几代人中唯一的机会。

This will be probably your only chance for generations.

多年来，你们一直寻求美国的帮助，但从未得到。

For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it.

没有一位总统愿意像我今晚这样去做。

No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight.

现在，你们有一位愿意满足你们愿望的总统。

Now you have a president who is giving you what you want.

那我们就看看你们会如何回应。

So let's see how you respond.

贾里德，我们在伊朗看到有人走上街头了吗？

Have we seen people hitting the streets in Iran, Jared?

在未来几天、几周里，我们应该关注什么？

And and what should we be watching for there in the days, weeks to come?

我认为现在说我们看到了任何大规模抗议还为时过早。

I think it's too soon to say that we're seeing any kind of significant protests.

我们还没有看到这种情况。

We haven't seen that yet.

但在军事行动结束后，这将是一个值得关注的迹象。

But it would be one thing to watch for once the military operation is over.

我猜测，许多伊朗人现在最关心的是自身的安全。

My guess is that a lot of Iranians are concerned right now about their own safety.

还有，亚历克斯，关键的是，目前还没有出现领导真空。

And, Alex, crucially, there hasn't been a leadership vacuum yet.

我的意思是，可能已经有一些针对伊朗领导层成员的袭击。

I mean, there may have been attacks trying to target members of the Iranian leadership.

但根据我们目前能确定的信息，还没有人丧生。

But from what we've, been able to determine, no one's been killed.

目前没有任何职位出现空缺。

There isn't any openings to be filled.

至少我还没有看到美国或以色列确认过这一点。

Not not that I've seen confirmed yet by The US or Israel.

这种情况可能在接下来的几分钟、几小时或几天内发生变化。

That could change in the coming minutes, hours, days.

所以如果真的发生了，比如最高领袖阿里·汗被杀，你会怎么想？

So if that were to change, you know, say the supreme leader, Ali Khan, is is killed.

我的意思是，有明确的接班人吗？

I mean, is there a clear successor?

我还没听说过有谁是接班人。

I haven't heard of one.

但即使有人 somehow 接过了权力，比如伊斯兰革命卫队的一名成员。

But even if someone somehow takes up the mantle, say it's a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

对吧？

Right?

他们可能会更加强硬。

They could be more hardline.

他们很可能不得不使用暴力来镇压反对他们掌权的民众抗议。

They'll probably have to use violence to keep the people in line who'd be protesting against them taking over.

我的意思是，这么说听起来可能有点冷酷，但我们现在其实还处在这件事的轻松阶段。

I mean, this would seem somewhat callous to say, but, like, we're currently in the easy part of this.

对吧？

Right?

美国和以色列对伊朗全境进行空袭，实际上并没有那么难。

America and Israel air striking all over Iran is actually not that hard.

这很危险，也很困难，但比起不仅杀死领导人，还要 somehow 建立一个人民支持的合法政府，还是要容易得多。

It's dangerous and it is difficult, but it's it's much easier compared to not only just killing the leader, but then somehow forming a legitimate government that the people support.

即使特朗普的想法是你——伊朗人自己去行动，一旦他们陷入困境，美国也会面临巨大压力，不得不前去援助。

And even if Trump's idea is you, the Iranians, go out and do it, there's gonna be a lot of pressure on The US to come and help them if they find themselves in trouble.

杰里德，这一切有多现实？

Jared, how realistic is all of this?

我看到伊朗外长已经出来表示，政权更迭是根本不可能的任务。

I see Iran's foreign minister has now come out and called the prospect of regime change mission impossible.

是的。

Yeah.

我只是想说，这个问题的有趣之处在于，政府内部的高级官员也提出了这个问题。

I would just say that what's fascinating about that question is that senior members of the administration themselves have also pointed to this question.

马可·卢比奥本人在今年一月参议院听证会上表示，由于伊朗政权结构复杂，权力中心众多，他说——我引述一下——如果最高领袖和政权垮台，没有人能给出一个简单的答案，说明伊朗接下来会发生什么。

Marco Rubio himself, in his testimony to the senate in January, said that because the regime is structured in a way that's so complex with multiple centers of power, He said, and I'm quoting, I don't think anyone can give you a simple answer as to what happens next in Iran if the supreme leader and the regime were to fall.

而现在，特朗普已经呼吁政权更迭。

And now we're in a moment where Trump has called for regime change.

他和他的政府尚未提出任何关于后续安排的计划。

He and his administration have not outlined a plan for what comes after.

我们知道，政权很可能能挺过几天的轰炸。

We do know that the regime probably can survive a few days of bombing.

去年夏天它就挺过去了。

It did last summer.

而接下来会发生什么，极其不确定。

And what comes next is extremely uncertain.

我一直在与驻伊斯坦布尔的《华尔街日报》中东记者贾里德·马尔森和驻华盛顿的国家安全记者亚历克斯·沃德交谈。

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal Middle East correspondent Jared Malson in Istanbul and national security reporter Alex Ward in Washington.

贾里德，亚历克斯，非常感谢你们两位。

Jared, Alex, thank you both so much.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

以上就是本期《周日新知》特别节目的全部内容。

And that's it for this special episode of What's New Sunday.

本期节目由皮埃尔·比内梅制作，监制为桑德拉·基尔霍夫，副编辑为克里斯·辛斯利。

Today's show was produced by Pierre Bienaime with supervising producer Sandra Kilhoff and deputy editor Chris Sinsley.

我是《华尔街日报》的卢克·瓦加斯。

I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal.

我们将在下周一早上再次与您见面。

We'll be back in your feet again on Monday morning.

在此期间，感谢收听。

Until then, thanks for listening.