与TSOH的亚历克斯·莫里斯一同探索媒体景观

是的，我认为无论如何，归根结底都是Netflix需要拥有对人们有吸引力的IP。

Yeah, I think really, really either way, it comes back to the idea that Netflix needs to have it needs to have IP that is relevant to people.

它需要通过一次性交易来收购IP，或者像他们与索尼达成的全球授权协议那样来做。

And it needs to either do that through, you know, doing one off deals to go acquire IP and needs to do it through kind of the big global licensing deal they did with Sony.

显然，在签署这些协议时，他们必须考虑你所提到的这类问题。

Obviously, as they signed these deals, they need to contemplate the type of things you're talking about.

这需要是一个全方位的策略。

It needs to be all encompassing.

当他们与XYZ制片人、导演、演员或其他任何人坐下来谈判时，他们在如何为观众创造价值以及如何推动相关经济收益方面拥有非常有利的地位。

And you know, when they when they sit down at the table with XYZ producer or director, actor, whoever it may be, they sit there in a very advantageous position in terms of what they can do for audience and how they can drive the economics of that.

正如这笔交易中非常突出的一点，有趣的是，美国影院观影人数在过去二十年下降了40%。

And as was very prominent throughout this deal, it's kind of funny theater viewership is down in The US movie theater viewership attendance is down 40% over the past two decades.

因此，观众在某种程度上已经用脚投票了，这并不意味着影院无关紧要，但确实在某种程度上反映了他们的选择。

So audiences to some extent have kind of voted with their feet, not to say it's irrelevant, but they voted with their feet to some extent.

但这个行业仍有许多利益相关方对此持有自己的看法。

But the industry still has a big stakeholder in this process may have a view about this.

而且显然，未来Netflix需要做到——虽然他们一直以来都是这样，但必须更加灵活包容。

And obviously, going forward, Netflix needs they have been this way for some time, but they need to be to the extent they need to be more accommodating.

而今天，从商业角度来看，这很有道理。

And today, it makes sense from a business perspective.

显然，他们需要调整这类事情。

Obviously they need to tweak things like this.

你知道，他们的想法是，一旦我们进入华纳兄弟，看了他们的账本，看到了华纳兄弟的情况。

And you know, it's kind of the idea that you they kind of frame this as hey, once we got and got into WBD and saw the books and we saw Warner Bros.

我们意识到院线业务是什么样子，才明白这对我们来说是个很好的契合。

And we realized what the theatrical business was like, we realized it's a good fit for us.

这有点像是，好吧，

That's kind of like, okay,

我想我明白你的意思。

I guess I hear what you're saying.

但今后，我们必须对这些事情有更深入的思考，对吧？

But now going forward, need to really have a thoughtful view on this stuff, right?

电影院之所以有趣，是因为我这里并没有提出什么新观点，但Netflix上有大量电影。

Theater is interesting just because I'm not breaking new ground here, but there are a lot of movies on Netflix.

其中一些质量很差，但也有一些质量不错。

Some of them are of very poor quality, but some of them are of good quality.

比如，你还记得有多喜欢《红色警戒》吗？

Like, remember really liking Red Notice.

那部电影有巨石强森和瑞安·雷诺兹主演。

It had The Rock and Ryan Reynolds.

我怎么可能不喜欢呢？

How am I not gonna like that?

而且，你知道，它确实很热门、很有趣，但我确实觉得Netflix的电影并没有像许多院线电影那样真正引发热议——是的，它们观看人数很多，但我觉得人们看完就忘了，而院线电影却能让人们长久讨论。

And, you know, it is buzzy and fun, but I do think there is something to, to Netflix's movies haven't really popped in the same way that a lot of the movies like, yes, they get big numbers, but I think people watch them and forget about them versus a lot of movies in theaters people still talk about.

这稍微早于流媒体时代，但《伴娘》《王牌播音员》这些电影更属于我们这一代，而不是现在的年轻一代。

This is a little bit pre streaming, but Bridesmaids, Anchorman, these are more you're my generation than this generation.

但我确实认为，当他们把电影放到院线时，他们或许能学到一些东西，或者正在思考：这不仅仅是经济问题，更是关于人们是否会记住那种观影体验。

But I do think there is something that they might learn or be thinking about when they might have got it from the, hey, when you put a movie theaters, it's not just about the economics then, it's about people remember the experience.

当你去电影院坐着看电影时，那种感觉比窝在沙发上观看要更令人难忘一些。

And there's just something a little bit more memorable about when you go to the movie theater and you sit there and you watch it versus when you kind of sit on your couch.

如果你想要打造品牌和构建IP，这一点或许很有价值。

And if you're trying to build brands and if you're trying to build IP, there might be something to that.

像《怪奇物语》这样的剧集，他们很可能把最后一季拆成了两部分，因为制作成本实在太高了。

And like Stranger Things, they probably split up the last season of Stranger Things because it costs so often much money.

他们想最大化回报，让观众保持关注长达四个月。

They wanted to get the real bang for their buck and have retention for four months.

但一次性放出全部剧集也有它自己的优势。

But there is something too, when you're dropping it all at once.

我觉得你可能会一口气看完然后就忘了，但如果你制造出那种‘办公室水 cooler’式的讨论时刻，让剧情慢慢发酵，让人们忍不住讨论‘接下来会发生什么？’，效果会更好。

I think you can kind of binge it and just forget versus when you create that water cooler style moment and you let things just situate and you let people be able to say, hey, what do you think is gonna happen next?

我不认为这种效果能立刻体现在数据上，但我相信这才是打造持久影响力的方式。

Like I do just think it's not in the numbers immediately, but I think that is how you build brain.

我问你一个问题

Let me ask you

顺便说一下，快速说一下。

real quick, by the way.

话说回来，能一口气看完一整部剧集也很棒，比如现在他们推出的热门剧《爱是盲目的》。

Mean, look, the flip side of that is it's awesome to have a series where you can watch the whole thing, But look at Love is Blind right now, which is a hugely popular show for them.

但你知道，这和我们所说的IP属于完全不同的类型，对吧？

And it's, you know, it's a very different type of show from what we call IP, right?

但他们已经一次性发布了。

But they're dropping.

他们已经发布了。

They've dropped.

我知道这一点，因为我和我妻子一起看了这部剧。

I know this because my wife and I watched this show.

他们在上几集播出一周后，才发布了婚礼集，现在又在一周后播出了 reunion 集。

They dropped the wedding episode a week after the previous ones that aired and then now they're airing the reunion a week.

无论如何，我认为Netflix历来都非常擅长灵活应变，根据需要调整策略。

They have, if nothing else, I think Netflix historically has been really good at being flexible and changing as they see the reason to do so.

里德·哈斯廷斯一直说，我们的两大信仰本质上是客户满意度和经营利润。

Reed Hastings has always said, our two religions basically are customer satisfaction and operating profits.

而这就是我们所关注的。

And that's what we're focused on.

其他一切都不过是帮助我们实现目标的手段。

Everything else is just a tactic to help us get there.

我认为有些内容可以采取不同的处理方式，有些可以一次性全部发布，有些则可以分批释放。

And I think there is content that could be treated differently and some things can be dropped all at once and some things can be parsed out a little bit more.

而这只是其中一部分。

And this is one part of the.

这又回到了迪士尼的讨论，我相信我们稍后会谈到。

And this gets back to the Disney discussion, which I'm sure we'll get into.

但这是这笔交易中的一部分，我认为如果我们收购华纳兄弟，

But this is one part of the deal where I do think maybe there was some logic to if we buy Warner Bros.

HBO——现在大概叫Max了——或许可以回归更传统的HBO定位，提供一些真正属于HBO标志性的电影和内容。

HBO, what is called HBO Max, I guess it's called Max now that can return to a more traditional HBO positioning with a certain amount of really the temple kind of movies and the content that we all know HBO for.

我们可以把其他那些更像填充物的内容放到Netflix上，以某种方式运营。

And we can take everything else that's more of the filler stuff and that could probably work on Netflix in some capacity.

HBO在国内的订阅用户不到六千万，十年前只有五千万，现在的ARPU是10美元，我猜它的ARPU大概就在10美元左右。

HBO has in the domestically HBO has less than 60,000,000 subscribers and it had 50,000,000 a decade ago and it's ARPU is $10 today and I'm going to take a while guess that it's ARPU is probably somewhere in the $10 range deck.

它拥有一定的观众群体，但这个群体规模有限，而他们真正擅长的内容是其独有的优势。

It has an audience, but that audience is only so large and the content that they're really, really good at is something that they uniquely do well outside of.

苹果现在做得也不错，对吧？

Guess Apple does pretty well now as well, right?

但他们本可以回归到原来的状态，以一种我认为相当合理的方式区分这两项服务。

But they could have returned that to where it was and had a way to kind of differentiate between those two offerings that in a way that I think probably could have really been sensible.

而在国际市场上，他们基本上完全可以放弃它，把它变成一个标签之类的。

And then internationally, they probably could have just done away with it for the most part and made it a tile or whatever.

但从这个角度来看，它本可以为他们带来很好的效果。

But but it could have really worked for them in that regard.

我认为这笔交易的这一部分其实相当有深思熟虑。

And and I think maybe that part of the deal is actually pretty thoughtful.

还要考虑那甜蜜的捆绑经济。

Get the sweet sweet bundle economics too.

我再问两个关于Netflix的问题，然后我们再聊别的。

Let let me two more question on Netflix and then we can start hitting some other thing.

首先，Netflix，你觉得他们感到意外吗？

First, Netflix, do you think they were surprised?

我是说，这里的监管阻力。

I mean, the regulatory pushback here.

尤其是那些共和党参议员一直在针对这家公司，欧洲也在针对其他公司。

Especially think the Republican senators just like hitting on the the company, Europe hitting other company.

你觉得Netflix当初以为，嘿，大家都喜欢我们吗？

You think Netflix went into this thinking, hey, everybody loves us?

你知道，我们是为数不多的科技公司之一，用户真的会用钱包投票。

You know, we are one of the few tech businesses where people like literally vote with their wallet.

我们让客户每个月取消订阅都变得如此简单，他们就是在投票。

We make it so easy for them to cancel every month they vote.

我们要和网络在一起。

We're going be with network.

人们喜欢我们。

People love us.

我的意思是，各方都出现了很多反对声音。

And I mean, there was a lot of on all sides, there was a lot of pushback here.

你认为他们对监管的反对感到意外吗？

Do you think they were surprised by the regulatory pushback?

你认为他们从中学到了什么吗？

And do you think they learned anything from it?

我的意思是，如果他们感到意外，那他们本不该如此。

I mean, if they were, I don't think they should have been.

我把他们归入人们所认为的大型科技公司一类。

I bucket them in the group of what people perceive to be the big tech companies.

而且他们显然在内容方面也遇到过问题，这些内容被认为带有某种政治倾向或文化倾向。

And they've obviously had issues with content too, that's perceived to have a certain political slant or certain cultural slant.

所以我认为他们在进入这一领域时应该有清醒的认识。

So I think they should have been eyes wide open as they go into this.

而好莱坞的任何事情，正如你从现在这笔交易中看到的那样，都让人觉得天啊，我们就要被奈飞收购了。

And anything in Hollywood is, as you can see with the deal now, was like, my gosh, we're gonna get bought by Netflix.

但随后奈飞不再是赢家了。

And then Netflix is no longer the winner.

然后突然间，你会想，真希望当初奈飞收购了我们。

Then all of sudden, you're like, we wish Netflix had bought us.

是的。

Yeah.

这简直是世界上最糟糕的事。

This is the worst thing in the world.

然后买家又变了，天啊，这情况居然更糟了。

And then the buyer changes like, oh my god, this is actually even worse.

所以我认为，如果他们忽视了这一点，那确实有点愚蠢。

So I there that just always seemed like if they overlooked that, I think that's kinda kinda foolish if they did.

最后一个关于Netflix的问题。

Last question on Netflix.

你知道的，我关注很多这类并购交易。

So, you know, I I follow a lot of these mergers.

当你在这种情况中成为被拒绝的竞标者时，通常的问题是：那我们去收购B计划吧。

When you are kinda the spurned bidder in a situation, oftentimes, the question is, well, let's go buy plan b.

我不确定。

I don't I don't know.

我认为根本没有B计划。

I don't think there was a plan B.

再次强调，Netflix在进行一项大型收购时，学到了很多东西。

Again, Netflix is sourcing on a big acquisition, but they learned a lot.

他们进入了华纳兄弟。

They got into the Warner Bros.

书籍。

Books.

他们遇到了监管方面的阻力。

They got regulatory pushback.

他们遇到了各种这样的问题。

They got all this sort of stuff.

你认为奈飞的下一步会是什么？

What do you think the next step for Netflix is?

你认为他们改变了策略吗？

Do you think they changed the strategy?

你认为他们可能会去收购别的东西吗？

Do you think they might go after something?

我的意思是，你之前提到了索尼，他们有授权协议。

Mean, you mentioned Sony earlier, they've got the licensing deal.

索尼的IP库并不是最好的，但它是拥有百年电影历史的四大电影公司之一。

Sony doesn't have the best IP library, but is one of the big four studios with one hundred years of movie history.

这看起来像是一个相当干净的收购目标。

Like that seems like a pretty clean acquisition.

如果我们想的话，还可以更疯狂一些，但你觉得奈飞的下一步该怎么做？

We could get even crazier if you wanted, but what do you think the next steps for Netflix are?

我认为下一步其实是之前趋势的延续，只不过可能会在某种程度上加速。

I think the next steps are really a continuation of what we've seen, but maybe it accelerates to some extent.

从迪士尼股东的角度来看，我觉得奈飞和华纳兄弟的这笔交易很有意思，

Thought from the perspective of a Disney shareholder, I thought the Netflix Warner Bros.

因为它可能在定价上提供某种保护伞，尤其是如果他们整合了服务的话——尽管他们可能并不会这么做。

Deal was interesting in terms of potentially providing a certain umbrella on pricing, particularly if they consolidated the services, which maybe they wouldn't have done.

但我认为这提供了一个有趣的掩护。

But I thought it provided an interesting cover there.

而且我认为这在一定程度上保护了他们，避免奈飞全面投入体育领域，因为那样的话，他们本可以很好地扮演非直播版权的角色。

And I thought it provided some nice protection against Netflix really going all in on sports because they were going be in a position where they were really serving that non live rights role really well.

并不是说他们不会做任何事，但我认为他们本可以把它当作一个次要的附加内容。

Not to say they wouldn't have done anything, but I think they could have kept it as a bit more of a sideshow.

我认为，由于这件事，现在这种情况很可能已经改变了。

I think that probably changes now as a result of this.

而且显然，他们本来就已经在走这条路了，对吧？

And obviously they've been going down that path anyways, right?

但我认为这会成为一个更加突出的重点。

But I think that becomes a much more prominent focus.

我认为他们长期以来也一直在大力拓展全球和国际市场，对吧？

I think they also really, they've been doing for a long time, lean into global and international, right?

有趣的是，你看像华纳兄弟探索这样的公司，其国际直接面向消费者的业务收入为35亿美元。

I mean, of the funny numbers is you look at something like WBD, their D2C business internationally does 3 and a half billion in revenues.

Netflix的国际直接面向消费者的业务收入高达270亿美元。

Netflix is international D2C business does 27,000,000,000 in revenues.

因此，他们拥有非常强大的优势去推进这项业务。

So they're in a very strong position to go out and do.

我现在一时想不起那个名字了。

I'm forgetting the name now.

就是他们在法国做的TPL交易，主要是获取本地直播内容版权，以更好地融入他们的平台。

Be TPL, the deal they did in France for basically local live rights to find ways to have that work with their platform.

还有很多类似的事情，我认为他们可以在国际上开展，进入全球前十大、2030年的市场，这些市场都不在美国。

There's a ton of things like that that I think they can do internationally to go into markets and go, okay, the top ten, two thousand thirty markets outside of The US.

在这样一个我们面临众多竞争对手（比如P Sky，甚至某种程度上还有迪士尼）的世界里，我们该如何真正加速我们的地位？这些对手由于财务状况和规模限制，无法像我们这样采取如此积极的行动。

What do we do to really supercharge our position in a world where we have a lot of competitors like P Sky or even Disney to some extent that just can't act with level of aggressiveness that we can because of our our current position financially and and the other scale that we have.

不错。

Nice.

我们先聊到这里，关于Netflix的内容，我相信在其他讨论中还会提到。

Let's wrap Netflix up there and I'm sure they'll come up in our other discussions.

我还有三件事想谈一谈。

There's three other things I wanted to hit.

我们还有三十分钟。

And so we we got thirty minutes.

我们得走了。

We gotta run.

但我想聊聊，你知道的，有一个赢家，那就是派拉蒙和华纳兄弟。

But I I wanna talk about, you know, there is a winner, Paramount Warner Bros.

那里将会出现一个规模庞大的竞争对手。

You are going to have a scaled competitor there.

我很想听听你对这个问题的看法。

I'd love to discuss our thoughts on that.

另一家媒体公司，我的意思是，作为订阅用户，我现在正在看你的投资组合。

The other media company, I I mean, again, as a subscriber, I'm looking at your portfolio right now.

你拥有迪士尼和奈飞。

You own Disney and Netflix.

我认为这里的竞争揭示了很多问题，将对迪士尼和奈飞产生重大影响。

I I think the the competition here revealed a lot and is gonna have a lot of impacts for Disney and Netflix.

而且，他们将在几周后迎来一位新CEO。

Plus, they've got a new CEO coming in in, what, a couple of weeks.

所以我很想聊聊迪士尼。

So I'd love to discuss Disney.

而你并不是我的首选。

And then you're not a favorite.

我很想聊聊体育转播权的前景，我的意思是，一方面我非常喜欢体育，因为我是个体育迷；另一方面，我认为除了Netflix之外，没人意识到这些体育转播权的规模有多大、有多关键。

I'd love to discuss the outlook for sports rights, which I mean, I I, a, I love them because I am a sports fan, but, b, I don't think people realize outside of Netflix how large these sports rights are and how existential.

NFL的转播权竞标，人们根本没意识到未来几年会有多疯狂。

And the the NFL bidding rights, people do not realize how crazy it's gonna get in the next few years.

你选个话题开始吧，我们可以随便切入任何一个。

So you you pick where you wanna start, and we can hop into any of them.

我觉得我们就从Peace Guy开始吧。

I think let's just go to Peace Guy from here.

好的。

Okay.

我们开始吧。

Let's go

继续聊Peace Guy。

to Peace Guy.

所以Peace Guy赢了，你知道的，他收购了华纳兄弟。

So Peace Guy is the winner, you know, buying Warner Bros.

超过一千亿美元。

For a $100,000,000,000 plus.

这真是鲸鱼吞下了大鱼。

This is truly the fish that swallowed the whale.

得益于背后在这里投入了巨额资金。

Thanks to the the back stopping a heck of a lot of money here.

他们将成为一个规模庞大的竞争对手。

They're going to be a scaled competitor.

我的意思是，我认为当您考虑到

I mean, I think they might be larger than Disney kind of when you

处于同一水平。

start Same ballpark.

合在一起。

Together.

处于同一水平。

So Same ballpark.

是的。

Yeah.

你对派拉蒙在合并后成为这一领域第三大玩家的前景怎么看？

What's your outlook for Paramount as they kind of combine and become kind of the third scale player here?

是的，我认为有必要稍微退一步，谈谈华纳兄弟与探索频道的交易。

Yeah, I think it's I think it's relevant to step back a little bit and talk about the Warner Bros.

合并交易。

Discovery deal.

当这笔交易签署时，或者当交易简报发布时，我记得是在2021年中期，如果我记错了请纠正我。

And when that deal was was signed, or when the deal deck was put out there, I believe mid twenty one, correct me if I'm wrong.

当时对2023年的收入预测是520亿美元。

The projections that were given for '23 were 52,000,000,000 in revenues.

这更像是一个SPAC的预测简报。

Makes a SPAC projection deck.

这更像一份SPAC的预测简报。

It's like, it's more aligned as SPAC projection deck.

正如你所说，那是2021年4月。

And it was April 21, as you said.

所以时间框架也基本是对的。

So it's kind of running the right time frame too.

所以总收入是520亿美元。

So 52,000,000,000 on top line.

我是一步步来算的，这样更容易跟上。

I was doing one by one to make it easier to follow.

520亿美元是2023年的预期目标。

52,000,000,000 was was the guide for '23.

2025年的收入是370亿，少了150亿美元。

'25 revenues were 37, so 15,000,000,000 short.

2023年D2C的收入是150亿美元或更多。

D2C revenues for '23 were 15,000,000,000 or more.

到了2025年，他们的收入略低于100亿，却多出了两年时间来调整。

They came in at just shy of 10 in '25 with an extra two years to work with.

EBITDA是14，如果我没记错的话，实际结果是8。

EBITDA was, correct me if I'm wrong 14 and it came in at eight.

差不多是这样。

That's about right.

而且

And

自由现金流的转化率我认为是60%。

free cash flow was I think was 60% conversion.

所以大约是8，但实际只达到了3。

So call it eight and it came in at three.

显然，自由现金流方面可能存在时间性因素。

Obviously, can have timing on free cash flow stuff.

简而言之，他们每一项预测都严重偏离了目标。

Long story short, they missed They missed every projection by a really wide margin.

我得专门查一下才能想起来，我的感觉是，主要原因在于断缆速度加快了。

I have to specifically look at this to remember my sense is the main reason was the pace of cord cutting accelerated from it.

我当时认为是低个位数，但最近才达到高个位数的水平。

I think it was low single digits at that time and we got to a point where it was high singles as of fairly recently.

所以这显然会给一切带来麻烦，尤其是当你有如此高的杠杆时，对吧？

So that's obviously and that throws a wrench into everything when you have so much leverage, right?

即便今天，他们的季度业绩也严重不及预期。

Look, even today they massively undermessy quarter.

即便今天，当你查看这些公司的财务数据时，有线网络和传统的线性电视业务仍然是收入、现金流等的主要来源。

Even today, when you look at these companies financials court, the the wireline the legacy linear TV business is still the majority driver of revenue, cash flow, and all this sort of stuff.

所以即便经历了这一切，他们仍然非常依赖这一块业务。

So even after all this, they're still very dependent on it.

我们可以稍后再谈这个话题，

We can talk about that later,

但请继续说下去。

but please continue.

所以华纳兄弟。

So Warner Bros.

全球线性网络和Peace Guide TV媒体业务占收入的50%以上，占EBITDA的约80%。

Global linear networks and Peace Guide TV media pro form a are north of 50% of revenues and in the ballpark of 80% of EBITDA.

长期以来，这没什么问题，因为D2C业务一直在亏钱。

And for a long time it was okay, well, D2C is losing money.

所以传统业务在EBITDA中的占比才这么高。

That's why the legacy stuff is so big as a percentage of EBITDA.

按合并报表计算，正如你所说，他们的收入实际上大约为200亿美元。

On a pro form a basis, they're actually at, as you said, they're right around 20,000,000,000 in revenue.

而这两者合起来的EBITDA在25亿美元左右。

And then they were at one six of EBITDA for 25 between the two of them.

作为参考，这是8%的利润率。

That's an 8% margin for context.

当Netflix的收入达到200亿美元时，其利润率只有个位数出头。

Netflix is at low teens margins when they are 20,000,000,000 in revenue.

所以即使你想要说，好吧，这里确实存在差距。

So even if you want to say, Okay, there's a gap there.

让我们承认这几百个基点的贡献。

Let's give them credit for those couple 100 basis points.

这可不是十亿美元。

That's not a billion dollars.

所以你并不是真的拥有。

So it's not like you have.

你这里有一个虚假的数字。

You kind of have a false number here.

你仍然对传统电视有巨大的依赖。

You have massive exposure to linear TV still.

让我感到真正担忧的是，看看华纳兄弟探索的第四季度IFRS 2025年财报，其国内订阅用户下降了10%，而相比之下，如果你看看这个行业其他玩家的数据，我认为大多数都只下降了6%到7%。

Where that gets really scary for me is, you you look at WBD's Q4, IFRS 20 '5 results, domestic subscribers were down 10% in an environment where, if you look at the other players in the space, I believe most of them were down around six or seven.

整个业务组合正面临压力。

The portfolio is under pressure.

我认为你已经看到分销商在与这些公司达成协议时提出了更激进的要求，以及他们愿意支付的费用。

And I think you've seen more aggressive actions from the distributors in terms of what they require to sign deals with these companies and what they're willing to pay for.

长期以来，最典型的双重收费公司例子是Peacock和NBC环球，以及Paramount Plus和Paramount。

And the two most prominent examples for a long time of the companies that were double dipping were Peacock and NBC Universal, and Paramount Plus and Paramount.

这些公司曾表示：你可以在这里为这个直接面向消费者的付费产品付费，而这些内容的权利也同时在直播电视上播放。

Those are the companies that were saying, okay, you can pay for this DTC product over here for rights that are also on live TV.

但现在分销商说，这不行。

And the distributors are now saying that's not okay.

如果我们分发这些频道，用户必须能免费访问这些直接面向消费者的服务。

If we're going distribute these channels, people need access the D2C offering for free.

所以我认为这将带来持续的压力。

So I think that's going to present ongoing pressure.

而且，直播电视用户流失的速度究竟如何，还有待观察。

And again, the question of what the pace of sub declines is for linear TV is to be seen.

如果实际情况比他们预期的更糟，那压力将会非常巨大。

If that comes in worse than what they're anticipating, the pressure there is going to be massive.

这里还有一个额外的点：如果你听戴维·埃里森谈论他们对这笔交易的打算，再看看UFC交易的例子，他非常明确地表示，他们希望增加更多节目。

One additional point here, if you listen to David Ellison talk about what they want to do with this deal, and you see it with the UFC deal as an example, he is very clearly saying that they want to add more shows.

他们希望在D2C平台上增加更多内容。

They want to add more content to the D2C platform.

我不知道这是不是只是从其他地方重新分配预算，还是真的意味着总支出增加。

I don't know if that's just a remix of spend from elsewhere, or if it actually means net dollars going up.

但这是华纳兄弟。

But this is Warner Bros.

或者这又是华纳传媒交易的重演，扎斯拉夫说：到2023年，D2C订阅用户达到2.031亿，收入达到150亿美元。

Or this is the Warner Media deal over again, where Zaslav is saying, hey, $203,104 100,000,000 D2C subs, 15,000,000,000 in revenues by '23.

如果传统电视业务开始下滑，你不得不寻找削减开支的地方，那么D2C方面的内容和营销支出就会首当其冲。

If the linear side starts to go against you and you have to find places to cut, the content and marketing spend on the D2C side is where it happens.

此外，你还需要对这些服务进行定价，我简单提一下，因为这很相关。

And also you need to get pricing on these services, you know, just add this real quick because it is relevant.

你看HBO在国内的情况，正如我之前所说，ARPU大约是10美元；其AVOD服务的标价是11美元，标准服务的标价是18.5美元，高级服务的标价是23美元。他们在标价和实际收费之间放弃了很大一部分收益。

You look at something like HBO domestically, as I said before, ARPU is around $10 The list price for their AVOD service is $11 The list price for their standard service is $18.5 List price for premiums $23 They're giving up a huge percentage of the economics between list prices and what people are actually paying.

Paramount+的情况也类似，基础版9美元，高级版14美元，他们的ARPU在6.06到6.50美元之间。

And Paramount plus is similar essentials $9 premiums $14 Their ARPU is in the $6.06 50 range.

公平地说，这是全球性的。

That's global to be fair.

这些公司必须真正弄清楚整合平台意味着什么。

These companies have to truly figure out what it means to consolidate a platform.

这会对定价产生什么影响？合并后你会失去或流失多少订阅用户？

What does that mean for pricing and how many subscribers do you mix out of or lose as a result of that?

迪士尼在Disney+和Hulu方面已经经历过这个过程。

Disney has been through this process in a lot of ways with Disney plus and Hulu.

这非常、非常具有挑战性。

It is very, very challenging.

我知道Peace Guy一直在谈论，我们以前也曾把平台迁移到共同的技术栈上。

And I know Peace Guy is talking a lot about, hey, we've taken platforms and put them on common tech stacks before.

这里提到的平台是Paramount Plus，公平地说，这是一个相当大的服务。

The platforms are referencing are Paramount Plus, which is a reasonably large service to be fair.

Pluto是远远落后于其他服务的最后一家快速服务平台，这跟你说什么，Jason？

Pluto, which is the last place fast service by a very wide margin relative to How dare you, Jason?

你怎敢这么说？

How dare you?

他们提到的第三个服务是BET Plus，我不知道BET Plus有多大，但我猜不会太大。

And the third service they're referencing is BET plus which I don't know how large BET plus is, but my guess is not very large.

要把两个真正大型的平台合并在一起，或者做任何他们想做的事，这将是一个完全不同的挑战。

It's gonna be a very different challenge to take two actual large platforms and merge them together or whatever they wanna do with that.

还要处理直播版权的问题。

And also deal with the issue of live rights.

而且，你知道，HBO Max仍在进行分层，是否能观看体育赛事取决于你选择的是AVOD层级还是标准高级层级。

And, you know, HBO Max is still tiering whether or not you get sports depending on if you're on the AVOD tier versus the standard premium.

这些问题真的很难回答。

There's those are those are really tough questions to answer.

当你的财务压力巨大、背水一战时，这些问题会变得难上十倍。

And it's made 10 times more difficult when your back's against the wall from financial pressures.

我会坦诚地说。

I will be honest.

我觉得这简直是一场灾难。

I think it is just an absolute disaster.

这里的整合程度让我觉得太疯狂了。

The amount of integration here, it is just so crazy to me.

有趣的是，我们实际上有一个这样的例子。

And what's really funny is we actually have an example of this happening.

1995年，西格拉姆收购了环球，并且进一步加大了投入。

Seagram bought Universal in 1995 and they doubled down.

他们收购了环球音乐集团，结果却是一场灾难。

They bought Universal Music Group and it was a disaster.

我认为结果纯粹就是一场灾难。

I think it result It was just a pure disaster.

拥有它的布罗姆顿家族称其为——我正在看我随手记下的一个引述。

Think the Brompton family who owns it called it I'm looking at a quote here just in my loose notes.

我的意思是，我还没完全对比过，但我一直说这是一场灾难。

I mean, I haven't fully compared, but it was a I keep saying it was a disaster.

他们说，这是一场灾难，一场家庭悲剧，几乎让公司崩溃。

The quote from them is it was a disaster, a family tragedy, you know, like almost implodes the company.

我们以前见过这种情况。

We we've got the we've seen this before.

富人进军媒体行业就是一场灾难。

Rich guy buying into media is a disaster.

他进来后，觉得自己比谁都聪明。

And he comes in, he thinks he's smarter than everyone.

我觉得这会很糟糕。

I think it's gonna be terrible.

他们说，这并不是我的损失。

They say, it's not loss of me.

我觉得华纳兄弟。

I think Warner Bros.

独立运营的华纳兄弟每年EBITDA达80亿美元，而他们却说能实现60亿美元的协同效应。

Standalone is doing 8,000,000,000 in EBITDA, and they're saying we're gonna find 6,000,000,000 of EBITDA of synergies.

我完全相信你能找到60亿美元的协同效应。

I have absolutely no doubt that you can find 6,000,000,000 of synergies.

绝对没问题。

Absolutely no doubt.

但我怀疑的是，你能否在不摧毁核心业务的情况下找到60亿美元的协同效应，对吧？

What I do have doubt on is that you can find 6,000,000,000 of synergies without destroying the core business, right?

任何人都能找出成本削减的办法。

Like anyone can find a cost cut.

你只要把所有人全炒了就行。

You just go fire everyone.

然后你坐下来，说，埃隆·马斯克那事儿是啥来着？

And then you come and sit around and you say, what was the Elon Musk thing?

嘿，我们不小心暂时取消了埃博拉防护措施。

Hey, we accidentally took away Ebola protection for a little bit.

你能找到很多成本削减的空间。

Like you can find a lot of cost cuts.

你得确保不会为了削减埃博拉病毒防护的开支而得不偿失吧？

You want to make sure you don't find the Ebola virus prevention cost cuts?

我真的很担心他们不会这么做。

I'm really worried they're not going to do it.

听我说，我理解你的愿景。

Look, I see the vision.

拿派拉蒙来说。

Take Paramount.

往前看。

Ahead.

关于这一点，反过来讲，我完全同意你刚才说的。

On that point, the flip side of that is again, saying we want I completely agree on what you're saying here.

反过来，我们希望加大投资，增加更多内容。

The flip side is we want to invest more and add more content.

大卫·埃里森说，我们要打造业内最顶尖的技术平台，超越奈飞。

David Ellison saying we want to have the best tech platform of anybody in the industry better than Netflix.

我相信他提到过，说我们要把产品工程师的数量增加十倍，这听起来像是疯狂的举动。

We're going to, I believe he said, seems like craziness say, we're going to 10x the number of product engineers.

你必须走出去招聘人才，但谁会来承担这份工作呢？

You have to go out and hire the people and who's going to this job.

我想你可以付给某人一大笔钱，从而始终影响他们的决定。

I guess you can pay somebody significant amount of money and always influence their decision.

但这些正是他们必须去争取的挑战，相比之下，那些考虑在奈飞这样发展良好的公司开启职业生涯的人会感觉容易得多。

But these are the things that they have to go out and win at night stands to be very challenging relative to someone who looks at a career at Netflix, which is probably doing quite well.

选择这个职位会为你的生活带来很大的风险。

That introduces a lot of risk into your life to move to that role.

现在，如果我退后一步看，我能理解这个愿景，对吧？

Now, if I'm backing up, I can see the vision, right?

你有派拉蒙，它拥有老牌电影制片厂。

You've got Paramount, which has the legacy studio.

它还拥有广播公司。

They've got the broadcaster.

华纳兄弟

Warner Bros.

它一直是一个巨大的资产，因为他们没有ABC、NBC、CBS或福克斯这样的电视台。

Was always this great asset because they didn't have, you know, they don't have ABC, NBC, CBS or Fox.

他们没有四大电视网中的任何一个。

They don't have one of the big four.

所以，正如你所说，当传统线性业务正在萎缩时，你可以把它们附加到任何一家监管机构上。

So any of them regulatory, you can bolt them on for the linear business, as you're saying, it's melting away.

但我认为Versant是NBC的衍生公司，那到底是什么呢？

But I think Versant, is the NBC spinoff of kind of what is it?

USA和Bravo，这些电视频道的组合并不匹配。

USA Bravo, the mismatch of cable channels.

是的，真糟糕

Yeah, gross

这个频道会安全的。

channel is gonna safe.

Versant将在大约两年后实现这一过程的逆转。

Versant is gonna realize the reverse of this in about two years.

你把华纳兄弟、CNN、TNT这些频道与CBS捆绑在一起，然后去重新谈判你的权利。

You attach the Warner Bros, the CNN, the TNT, you attach those to CBS and you go for your rights renegotiations.

我认为，当你有广播网络作为后盾时，这些重新谈判会顺利得多。

And I think you're going to do much better in those renegotiations when you're protected by the umbrella of a of a broadcast network.

所以我理解你的愿景，对吧？

So I do see the vision, right?

你把它们合并，就能获得更大的内容库，但执行起来会极其困难，非常困难。

You combine them, you get a bigger library, it's the execution is going to be devilishly, devilishly hard.

大卫·埃里森，我知道他口碑不错。

And David Ellison, you know, I hear good things about him.

他不是那种传统类型的人。

He's not the traditional.

他看起来不像那种‘我爸爸是亿万富翁’的典型二代。

It doesn't seem like he's the traditional, hey, my dad's a centi billionaire.

我只是靠这个过日子。

I'm just living off this.

他看起来确实很能干。

It seems like he works.

Skydance 似乎做得不错，但他从未担任过需要削减如此巨额资金的运营职务。

Skydance seems like it did a good job, but he's never been in an operating role where he needs to cut billions of dollars like this.

至少大卫·扎斯洛以前做过这种事。

Like, least David Zaslow had done that before.

我只是觉得这简直是一场灾难。

I I just think this is it's a disaster.

老实说，如果Netflix在三四年或五年后收购这些资产，我一点也不惊讶。

And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Netflix is buying the pieces in three, four or five years.

是的。

Yeah.

当然，我们来聊聊吧。

And sure let's talk

我们来聊几分钟体育。

about sports in minute.

说到Versant，不妨以体育联盟为例，比如英超足球联赛，你与NBCU达成协议，在美国的线性电视和Peacock平台上都有播出，虽然在某些方面是割裂的，但也可以保持连贯性。

Speaking of Versant, think about a sports league as an example, like the UPL, English Premier League Soccer, and you sign a deal with NBCU and you have a presence on linear television in The US, you also have presence on Peacock, you know, that's disconnected to some sense, but there can be continuity.

而所有付费电视用户都能获得这项服务。

And that's the extent that all customers who are pay TV customer have that service.

现在你把这种关系拆分了：你与Versant合作，让比赛在USA网络播出；同时你仍与NBCU合作，处理在NBC广播电视和Peacock上的比赛转播。

You now split up that relationship where you're dealing with Versant to have the games on USA Network, you're still dealing with NBCU for the games that are on NBC broadcast and on Peacock.

当续约谈判到来时，我只是在想：对我们来说，是否值得让我们的客户经历这种麻烦？

When a deal comes up for renewal, I just think you ask yourself, is this actually worth it for us to go through this head is for us to put our customers through this headache?

现在的例子就是Paramount+的UFC赛事。

And the example now is Paramount plus of UFC.

我的意思是，他们宣布了这项协议：如果你每月支付8.99美元订阅Paramount+基础版，就能免费观看所有UFC赛事，无需额外付费点播，这相比ESPN的协议对用户来说是巨大的利好。

I mean, I think they announced the deal and they go if you pay $8.99 a month for Paramount plus essentials, you get access to UFC cards with no pay per view by massively beneficial thing for customers relative to the ESPN deal.

我不知道这背后的财务计算如何，但对用户来说确实非常有利。

I don't know how the math pans out on that, but it is massively beneficial for customers.

然后你快进到现在，已经开始了相关的讨论。

Then you fast forward and now you're already having talks about.

是的，有些比赛会放在Paramount+，我们也可以放在CBS上。

Yeah, some will be on Paramount plus we can also put them on CBS.

我们也可以把它们放在TNT上。

We can also put them on TNT.

你又开始看到这种分裂了。

You start to get this bifurcation again.

从分销商的角度来看，我觉得我的头都要炸了，这本质上都是同一件事。

And I just from the perspective of the distributor, go, my head would be at it's all the same thing.

可以播放不同的直播流。

Can show different streams.

通过这种方式确实有办法增加价值。

It's not that there's no ways to add value by doing that.

但如果你为了保护TNT而定期这么做，我是不会接受的，毕竟最终还是让客户来决定。

But the idea that you're going to protect TNT by periodically doing that, I'm just not going to put up with it and we can let customers decide if I'm a distributor at the end of the day.

所以我认为在实践中这真的很有挑战性。

So I think it's really challenging in practice.

我是个狂热的NBA球迷，你经常听到的一件事是，

I'm a big NBA fan and one of the most frequent things you hear and I

我也有过这种情况。

had this too.

我不知道。

I don't know

他们不得不看比赛，一段时间这两支球队在一个频道，然后又换到另一个频道。

where they have to watch games, you know, for a while that two teams were on one network, then they're on the next network.

但这个问题是可以解决的。

And you can solve that.

但我觉得派拉蒙会比这更聪明一些。

But, you know, I think if Paramount and I I think they'll be smarter about it than this.

但我觉得，嘿，你可以在流媒体服务上看，或者我们在CBS播出，这很好。

But, you know, I think having, hey, you can watch it on the streaming service or we'll air it on CBS, that's great.

但如果你说，我们要把四年放在TNT，四年放在CBS，好让TNT能获得渠道授权，最终人们会说：去你的。

But if you're like, we're gonna put four year on TNT and four year on CBS so that TNT can get carriage, eventually people are gonna say f off.

我觉得你这其实是在害自己。

And I think you're kind of just like doing yourself a disservice.

关于Versant这件事

On the Versant thing

这可能对铁杆UFC粉丝有效，但随着受众从狂热粉丝向普通观众过渡，难度会越来越大。

Well, that might and that might work for the big UFC fans, but it gets harder as you go down that range to the less diehard fans.

在这方面，我们共同的朋友弗朗西斯科·奥尔韦拉今天早上发给我一些信息，是关于一些区域体育网络协议可能要重新调整。

And along these lines, our mutual friend Francisco Olvera sent me something this morning about basically some of the RSN deals potentially getting reworked.

我都记不清是哪个联赛了，但RSN协议正在调整，以便可以通过数字平台播出。

Can't remember which league it even was, but RSN deals getting reworked to where they can then be through digital platforms.

我认为，作为全国性的转播权合作伙伴，你确实面临一个风险：观众观看非本地比赛会变得非常容易。

I think as a broadcast, a national rights partner, you do run the risk that it becomes really easy for people to watch out of market games.

尤其是对于那些不是本地铁杆粉丝的人来说，对吧？

And they, I mean, especially for someone who's not an in market diehard fan, right?

这只不过让他们有了一个借口，说我不需要看尼克斯和掘金的比赛。

It just becomes a way for them to say, you know, I don't need to watch the Knicks and the Nuggets.

我会选择这十个其他在XYZ平台上的比赛之一，因为我已经为这个平台付费了。

I'll pick one of these other 10 games that's on XYZ service that I'm already paying for.

我会看那些比赛，尤其是在体育博彩盛行的时代，对吧？

And I'll watch that, especially in a world with sports betting, right people.

我认为他们对特定球队的归属感也在下降，因此如果趋势朝这个方向发展，这对全国转播权持有者来说是一个风险。

I think their their affiliation with a given team is just declining as well, so that that's a risk for national rights partners to the extent it goes that direction.

我们的感觉是，当我真的感兴趣时，但还是回到你提到的Versant部分。

Our sense are when I am really interested in, but just back to your Versant part.

另一点是，这就是为什么我觉得Versant分拆出来的时候，我当时就想，快给我吧，你知道的，因为它很便宜，而且这种又便宜又遭人讨厌的分拆公司，历史上我经常低价买入，它们确实非常便宜。

The other thing is like, this is why I think Versant, when it spun off, I was like, oh, bring it to me, you know, because it's cheap and it is very hated and very cheap and very hated spin offs have historically I've on I've underbought them and they're, you know, very cheap.

所有东西都有价格，而且非常便宜。

Everything's got a price and very cheap.

但你看Versant，我刚刚算了一下，他们所有的分销协议都将在2027年和2028年到期。

But Versant, you look at it, and I was just kind of running the math and all their distribution deals are ending in '27 and '28.

正如我之前所说，你去谈判时会说：嘿，我们有USA、Bravo和CNBC。

And as I said earlier, you go and you negotiate and you say, Hey, we've got USA and Bravo and CNBC.

而分销商们会笑着摇头，因为没有NBC的保护。

And distributors are gonna laugh about the room without kind of the NBC protection.

然后他们会说：哦，我们还有这些体育联赛。

And then they're gonna say, oh, we've got these sports leagues.

他们确实有，对吧？

And they do, right?

他们签了像NASCAR这样的协议，NBC和USA合作，我记得有四场NASCAR比赛在USA播出，八场在NBC播出。

They signed like, there's a NASCAR deal that NBC and USA signed where I think like four four NASCAR races are on USA and eight are on NBC.

他们现在确实拥有这些资源。

They have them for now.

但当这份NASCAR合约到期时，Versant将陷入最糟糕的境地。

But when that NASCAR deal is up, Versant is gonna get the worst of all worlds.

对吧？

Right?

因为NBC的覆盖范围更广，NBC的覆盖范围也更广。

Because NBC has got better distribution and NBC has got better distribution.

如果NASCAR对它们有效，NBC就不再依赖Versant了。

If NASCAR is working for them, NBC is no longer beholden to Versant.

它们只会说，好吧，我们全都要自己拿过来。

They're just gonna say, alright, we're taking it all over here.

如果NASCAR对它们无效，NBC就会放弃NASCAR，然后Versant会说，四线媒体资产，这仍然是我们最好的资源。

If it's not working for them, NBC is going let NASCAR go and then Versant is gonna say, tier four media, tier four media asset, it's still our best thing.

我们得签下来，毕竟他们陷入了最糟糕的境地。

We've got to sign up like they've just got the worst of all worlds.

正如我们以泰勒·斯威夫特的例子所说，体育版权的规模是你能拥有的最佳资产，因为你愿意付费，并且可以覆盖更广泛的受众。

Know, as we said with the Taylor Swift example, these sports rights scale is the best thing you can have because you can pay up and you can distribute over bigger base.

Versant在每一个小规模问题上都会遇到麻烦。

Versant runs into every single like every single small scale issue they run into.

这对它们来说将是一场灾难。

It is going to be a disaster for them.

在未来几年里，它们将产生大量现金流。

And they're going to generate a lot of cash flow over the next few years.

很难说它们在那之后还能产生任何价值，或者它们存在的理由是什么。

It's very hard to say that they're going to generate anything or that there's any reason for them to really exist after that.

话虽如此，我要说CNBC是一个不错的资产。

Now, having said that, I will say CNBC is a good property.

我认为在数字领域，你们可以做一些有趣的事情。

I think you could do interesting things on the digital side there.

它们确实拥有一些数字资产。

They do have some digital assets.

我知道你是个高尔夫爱好者。

They've got I know you're a golf guy.

它们有一个高尔夫球场预约应用，我认为这个应用有望成为一个非常有价值的业务。

They've got a golf tee time booking app that I think you'd imagine becoming a really valuable business.

它们还有粉丝业务和其他东西，但我认为核心业务在几年后将会很糟糕。

They've got fan they've got other stuff, but I think the core business is, it's going to be bad in a couple of years.

我觉得像Versant这样的交易中有一件事特别搞笑，那就是NBCU或负责CNBC的人现在可以去数字平台上做些事情。

One of the things I find hilarious about like the Versant type deal is part of it was fun as, now the NBCU or the people running CNBC as an example can go out and do things on digital properties.

他们可以在数字领域集中精力，超越传统线性电视取得成功。

They can have the level of focus they need there to go out and win beyond just linear.

我觉得这在NBCU这个小部分内部尤其有趣，而NBCU本身又是康卡斯特更小的一部分。

And I think it's kind of funny in the context of a small piece inside of NBCU, which is even smaller piece inside of Comcast.

你不可能在这样的大组织里实现长期思维，也无法花20.5亿美元去投资你认为对CNBC非常有意义的项目。

You can't manage to have long term thinking and the ability to spend $20.50, dollars 100,000,000 on something that you think can make a lot of sense for CNBC.

我觉得特别讽刺的是，这种做法在这么庞大的体系里行不通，却在独立的小型实体中有效。

I just find it hilarious that that doesn't work in in the context of that huge thing, it does it for a standalone small piece.

但这并不是说它不对。

But but not to say that it's incorrect.

我确信大公司里这种情况经常发生。

I'm sure it happens all the time in big companies.

是什么促使你这么想的？

What push you there?

因为这确实很有趣。

Because it is interesting.

我的意思是，华纳兄弟被收购的原因，如果你听人们说，

I mean, the reason Warner Bros.

是他们宣布剥离线性电视网络的光环。

Got bought if you listen to people is they announced the spin off of a glow of the linear networks.

然后这就是为什么人们开始盯上他们。

Then that's why people were coming after them.

康卡斯特宣布分拆华纳兄弟。

Comcast announced the spin off Warner Bros.

原本打算分拆。

Was going to spin off.

现在他们正在合并。

Now they're merging into.

在我看来，这是典型的协同效应丧失。

To me, this is classic dis synergy.

我有点好奇，你知道，你们说USA网络和NBC合并、Discovery全球与HBO合并是有协同效应的。

And I'm kind of curious, you know, you're putting to there are synergies to having USA Networks and NBC together, to having Discovery Global with HBO.

但所有公司却都打算把它们拆分出去。

But yet all the companies were going to spin it off.

他们到底在做什么，这点很清楚。

It's clear what they're doing.

他们只是想把那些价值下降的低倍数资产剥离出去。

They're trying to get the lower multiple declining asset out of them.

但对我来说，这有点难以理解，对吧？

But to me, kind of didn't understand it, right?

看起来如果合并确实有协同效应，你们完全可以一边用其中一个业务当现金牛，一边专注于另一个，而无需制造拆分带来的所有复杂性、时间和成本。

It seemed like, hey, if there are synergies to having them together, you can cash cow manage one while focusing on the other without creating all this complexity of the spin, without creating the time, the expense.

你怎么看这个？

What did you think of that?

你觉得这是个好策略吗？

Did you think that was good strategy?

我想，事后看来，事实胜于雄辩。

Guess hindsight, I guess the proof is in the pudding.

华纳兄弟。

Warner Bros.

他们怀揣着巨大的梦想，但这真的创造了价值吗？

Got a huge dream, but was that value creating?

我觉得我们讨论的并不是Versant本身。

I don't think we're talking about Versant specifically.

我觉得这个策略根本站不住脚。

I don't think the strategy is sound at all.

我认为这是一个错误的决定。

I think it was the wrong decision.

我认为他们做出这个决定，甚至就是基于他们给出的理由。

I think it was done even for the reasons they gave for doing it.

我觉得他们是出于错误的原因才这么做的。

I think they did it for the wrong reasons.

我已经长期关注康卡斯特及其战略，因此我更愿意直接相信他们所说的话，而不是把任何银河品牌的想法归因于他们。

And I've followed Comcast and their strategy for long enough now to take what they say at face value as opposed to attributing any Galaxy brand thinking to it.

我认为这不是正确的战略。

I don't think it's the right strategy.

这也引发了一个问题，即奈飞是否应该对整个交易出价，而不是仅仅试图剥离部分资产。

And I think that also brings the question to some extent whether or not Netflix should have made a bid for the whole thing as opposed to trying to just take out.

我知道他们对收购线性资产毫无兴趣，但我认为他们本可以找到一些有意义的切入点，尤其是在有大量现金流的情况下。

I know they have no interest in buying the linear assets, but I think there's potentially an argument that they could have found something to do there that might have made sense, particularly when there's so much cash flow.

显然，这会带来一系列新的风险，但我认为同时拥有两者确实有一定合理性，尤其是在涉及直播权的时候。

Obviously, it introduces a bunch of different risks, but I think there is some validity to having to having both, particularly when you're talking about the live rights.

而且，这又避开了很多这类问题。

And again, it gets away from a lot of this.

我经常和迪士尼讨论他们如何报告或过去如何报告体育与娱乐线性业务，以及所谓的会计幻觉——到底谁为哪些部分支付了费用，而不是让公司只关注真正重要的事，比如仍有六千万付费电视订阅用户。

I talk about this a lot with Disney in terms of how they report or how they did report sports and entertainment linear and the accounting mirage of what's actually getting paid for where, as opposed to the companies just being focused on what actually matters, which is there's still 60,000,000 paid TV subs or whatever it is.

有两个不同的分发渠道都具有价值，你需要找到一种方式，尽可能同时利用两者来创造价值，对吧？

There are two different distribution channels that have value and you need to find a way to potentially use both of them to the extent that you can create value out of using both of them, right?

我觉得像Versant这样的例子完全是误判。

And I just think something like Versant as an example was really misguided.

你说得对，Netflix就是这样。

On your you're spot on Netflix.

我不太明白为什么Netflix不直接说，我们全要了。

Like, I I kinda didn't understand why Netflix didn't just say, we'll take the whole thing.

对吧？

Right?

肯定会有一些协同效应。

There are gonna be synergies.

我们拥有NFL比赛的转播权。

We we've got the NFL game that we have the rights to.

对吧？

Right?

如果我们把这项内容放到TNT上，对我们来说其实没太大变化，但可能有很多70岁、80岁的观众会喜欢。

If we if we plot that onto TNT for like, it's not really changing it for us, but there's probably a bunch of 70 and 80 year olds who want that.

这会提升TNT的价值。

It's gonna boost TNT's value.

这是额外的收益。

It's incremental.

对我们来说不需要额外成本。

It costs us nothing more.

所以我只是觉得，嘿，Netflix拥有庞大的片库。

I so I just kind of thought that, hey, Netflix has this huge library.

很棒。

Cool.

让我们开始全天候播放TNT的超自然剧重播吧。

Let's start throwing, you know, TNT air supernatural reruns all day during the day.

让我们整天重播《怪奇物语》，这看起来会很有趣。

Let's start running Stranger Things reruns all day during the day, you know, like it just it seemed like it would be fun.

关于Netflix，还有一个问题。

One more question on Netflix.

你知道，Netflix说他们退出竞购华纳兄弟的原因是财务纪律。

You know, Netflix says that the reason that they dropped their bid for Warner Bros.

这是财务纪律的问题。

Was financial discipline.

我相信他们的话。

And I do believe them.

我认为确实存在一些财务纪律。

I I think there was some financial discipline.

不过，我经历过很多次竞标战。

However, I've done a lot of bidding wars in in history.

但我从未见过一家公司签了协议后，

And I've never seen a company bid signed agreement.

一旦出现更优的报价，就直接说我们退出、不玩了，对吧？

And then the first bid, the first superior bid comes, and the company just says we're out, we're walking away, right?

我认为，如果真是这样，就会让人质疑你们签的协议到底有多大的潜在收益。

And I think because if that's the case, it would raise the question of how skinny the upside of the deal that you signed was for one.

所以我在想，当他们这么说的时候，你相信吗？

So I wonder, do you believe them when they say that?

而且我并没有忽略这样一个事实：泰德·萨兰多斯就在派拉蒙出价的那天去了白宫。

Or it's not lost on me that Ted Sarandos was at the White House that the day the Paramount bid came.

据我所知，没有人会在白宫与他见面。

I don't think anyone at the White House met him is the reporting.

然后当天下午，他们就撤回了出价。

And then they dropped the bid that afternoon.

我不禁怀疑，他们是否被明确告知：美国政府将反对这笔交易。

I wonder if they were told in no uncertain terms, hey, the US government will be opposing this deal.

他们只是看了看，说：我们不能明说，因为这对我们来说政治形象不好，但干脆直接放弃这笔交易吧。

And they just kind of looked at it and said, we can't say that out loud because that's a political bad look for us, but let's just drop this deal.

不值得惹上监管上的麻烦。

It's not worth the regulatory headache.

拿走十亿美元吧。

Let's take the billion.

我们继续吧。

Let's move on.

我稍微搭了梯子，但我很想听听你的看法。

I kind of leaned the ladder, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.

是的，我很感谢你搭的梯子。

Yeah, I appreciate the ladder.

让我觉得是前者的原因之一，正如你所说，他们的做法确实很奇怪。

The things that make me think it's the former is one, as you said, it's pretty odd in terms of how they approach this.

但他们在交易签署前就明确告知华纳兄弟探索频道：这是我们的最佳且最终报价。

But they also said in advance of the deal being signed, specifically communicated WBD, this is our best and final proposal.

当然，报价和签署协议后再展开竞购是不同的，对吧？

Now granted, proposal is different than a signed deal and then the bidding war from there, right?

但他们明确告诉对方：这是最佳且最终报价。

But they specifically told them it's best and final proposal.

如果这还不够好，我们就退出。

And we'll walk away if this isn't good enough.

我只是觉得，他们以一个他们认为足以促成交易、同时对他们来说仍然有意义的水平进行了承销。

I just think that they underwrote it to a level where they thought they could get the deal done and where they thought it still made sense for them to your point.

这从一开始就是我的结论。

And kind of my conclusion from the jump.

我认为，他们随后的行动表明，当时定价中预留的误差空间太小了。

I think their actions subsequently suggest that the margin of error that was then built into that price was too skinny.

如果我不确信我们能接受，我根本不会以那个价格签署这笔交易，毕竟我们都明白电子表格的计算逻辑，对吧？

And I don't think I would have ever signed that deal at that price to begin with if I wasn't comfortable going, you know, we all know how spreadsheet math works, right?

如果高出5%就会让整个交易崩盘，那可能说明你本来就已经贴着底线了。

If going 5% higher was going to break it, then that may suggest that you were too close to the line anyways.

这就是为什么竞标战通常如此有利可图，因为你签了协议后，觉得还有20%的上升空间，对吧？

And that's why bidding wars are generally so profitable because you sign something and you think there's the 20% upside, right?

当有人进来时，至少你还有余地加价，比如奈飞出价20，你还能加到30，因为你原本觉得这整个东西值34，你只是在慢慢蚕食那部分价值。

When somebody comes in, at least have room to go from, let's say Netflix has bid with 20, You have room to go to 30 because you thought the whole thing was worth 34 and you're just kind of chipping into that.

好的。

Alright.

真的

Real

快点。

quick.

有一位叫兰多斯先生的评论，

There's a comment from Mr.

在播客里提到过。

Randos in a podcast.

我认为是马特·贝尔尼，他们当时在讨论与艺人签订协议的薪酬结构。

I think it was a Matt Bellany where they were talking about their structure of agreements with talent for pay compensation.

他跟他们说，我们所有的交易都设计成根据成功情况来支付报酬，基本上听起来就是，平均交易中大部分是固定 payout。

And he says to them along the lines of, we structure all deals to pay based on success that basically it sounds like, you know, largely fixed payout on an average deal.

我们设定了一个数字，但其中有一个折扣，用以体现我们为对方带来的价值，这基本上就是他说的意思。

We then have a number, but there is a discount there to account for the value that we bring to the table effectively is what he said.

而对我来说，这笔交易从来都没有包含最后一部分——再次强调，太多价值被分配给了WBD，而在我看来，这些价值本应是Netflix能够高度自信地创造出来的。

And I think this deal for me never had that last component of again, too much of the value was going to WBD for things that in my mind uniquely reflect the value that Netflix could have a very high degree of confidence of creating.

也许Peace Guy能搞定，但对我来说没那么确定。

Maybe Peace Guy can do it, but much less certain to me.

我觉得我们没时间深入讨论体育转播权了。

I don't think we're gonna have time to get into full sports rights.

我有太多关于体育转播权的事情想说，但我们只剩下五分钟了。

I have so many sports rights things, but we have five minutes left.

我真想跟媒体聊聊，跟你聊聊，Spunman。

I'd love to just talk to media and talk to you, Spunman.

但我只想快速谈一下迪士尼，你知道的，新CEO上任了。

But I love to just quickly let's hit on Disney real quick, you know, new CEO coming in.

我觉得，如果你六个月前问我，迪士尼可能会。

I think this deal, if you had asked me six months ago, I think Disney might have.

我觉得他们可能会再次收购福克斯，但当时的数字很接近。

I think they would have done the Fox deal again, but, you know, the the math was close.

现在他们回头看这笔交易，大概会想：我们当初买福克斯是不是捡大便宜了？

When they look at the steel now, they're probably like, boy, did we get a steal on that Fox deal?

但我真的很想用最后几分钟聊聊，随着迪士尼即将迎来新CEO，迪士尼如今处于怎样的状态？

But I I'd love to just spend the last few minutes talking about, you know, as we transition to new new CEO, as Disney kind of seems to get its feedback under where you think Disney is sitting these days?

是的，我的第一反应是，这正是我写过很多次的话题。

Yeah, I mean,

我的第一个想法是，这个话题我写过很多次了。

my first thought is this is something I've written about quite a bit.

这让我想起了沃尔玛的很多情况。

And it reminds me of Walmart in a lot of ways.

你了解这些大型公司，当它们错过了一次重大的业务变革时，要重新回到哪怕只是基本的平衡状态，需要多长时间、付出多大代价，对吧？

You learn these huge companies when they miss a major change in the business, just how long it takes and how costly it is to truly get back to even like level footing again, right?

或者回到让你对未来发展路径感到真正乐观的位置。

Or back to a position where you feel really good about your path going forward.

这非常、非常具有挑战性。

It is very, very challenging.

我已经见过两次了，这件事现在深深印在我的脑海里。

And I've seen that twice now and it's really kind of seared in my brain at this point.

我认为过去的不同阶段在某种程度上是相互独立的。

I view the past as somewhat distinct from each other.

娱乐内容方面，我认为已经成功实现了转型，但在全球范围内的成功仍具挑战性，不如Netflix那样有保障。

The entertainment programming stuff I think has successfully kind of made the turn and success globally is still a bit challenging and less assured than than it is for something like a Netflix, obviously.

但我认为迪士尼有明确的路径，能够让娱乐内容的直接面向消费者业务取得成功。

But I think Disney has the path forward to make the entertainment programming G2C stuff work.

这将是一个增长型业务，利润率会随时间逐步提升。

It's going to be a growth business with margins expanding over time.

这将成为一个重要的盈利驱动力。

It's going to be, you know, big earnings driver.

美国体育转播权方面仍然是挑战所在，转型仍在进行中。

The US sports rights stuff is still where the challenge is at and where the transition is still ongoing.

我认为ESPN的直接面向消费者服务，也就是旗舰产品发布，虽然不了解具体数据，但可能比我想的要弱一些。

And, you know, I think the ESPN D2C, the flagship launch, I think has without knowing specific numbers is probably coming a little bit weaker than I thought it would.

考虑到其定价、产品性质以及围绕某些体育转播权可能出现的高用户流失率，它在平台技术、账号共享、应对直播事件中的大量并发流等方面面临着巨大挑战，这些都不容易实现。

I think given the price point, the nature of what it is and the amount of churn that you'll see around certain sports rights, it has a very significant challenge in terms of platform technology, password sharing, dealing with a significant number of concurrent streams around live events, those things are not easy to do.

我认为，对于使用这些各种平台的人来说，作为消费者，你会觉得Netflix在这些平台中通常是最出色的，但要做得非常好并不容易。

And I think for people who use all these various platforms, you see as a consumer that Netflix, in my opinion, is typically best in class amongst these, but it's not easy to do these things very well.

当你点击某个图标，内容开始加载，却要等很久才能播放。

And when you click on some tile and something starts loading, and it takes a while to work.

如果是NFL比赛，你或许能忍受并等待，但其他内容，你就不会再回来了。

If it's an NFL game, maybe you'll put up with it and wait other stuff, you just won't come back.

所以，这些正是他们必须解决的挑战。

So these are the kind of challenges they have to address.

在这方面，他们仍在摸索如何做到这一点。

And I think in that regard, they're still really figuring out how to do it.

话虽如此，他们正逐渐走向我们之前讨论的境地：无论是线性电视用户还是单独订阅的用户，都将能访问所有内容，这在我看来说明ESPN+的策略从一开始就是错误的。

That said, they are getting to the places we've kind of discussed where everybody on linear and anybody who signs up for standalone will be in the same place in terms of having access to everything, which, in my mind speaks to ESPN plus stuff was really the wrong strategy.

他们走错了路，为此浪费了数年时间。

And they they pursued this incorrectly and it costs them, you know, years.

不过，这确实很艰难。

Was tough, though.