2026年2月 随意闲谈

你即将收听《又一个价值播客》，我是主持人沃克。

You're about to listen to the Yet Another Value Podcast with your host, me, Walker.

今天的播客是我2012年2月的月度随意闲谈。

Today's podcast is my monthly random ramblings for February 2012.

我就直接开讲了，一说就停不下来，连我自己都记不清说了多久。

I'm just gonna hop on, and I I ramble for I can't even remember.

我觉得大概有三十分钟吧。

I think it's about thirty minutes.

我不确定。

I don't know.

时间飞逝。

Time was flying.

时间过得太慢了，因为这是一个令人恐惧的思考过程。

Time was going so slow because it's a terrifying, terrifying thought process.

我主要谈论的是AI正在引发的SaaS末日。

I mainly talk about the SaaS, SaaS apocalypse that's going on as AI.

我一直在说SaaS，但AI的恐惧正在渗透到市场的各个领域。

I keep saying SaaS, but the AI fears are bleeding into all sorts of sectors all over the market.

人们都在思考它如何重塑一切。

People are wondering how it's reshaping.

但我无法给你答案。

And I don't have answers for you.

我只有一段冗长的闲聊：看，AI正在呈指数级进步，而人类真的、真的不擅长应对这种指数级进步。

I just have a long rambling discussion of, look, AI is improving exponentially and humans are really, really bad at dealing with exponential improvement.

所以一方面，对我来说，我总是想成为那个冲进恐慌中的人，就像西部枪手冲进消防员中间，砰砰砰砰，到处撒钱。

So on the one hand, to me, I always want to be the person running into a panic, just like a gunslinger running into a firefighter, bam, bam, bam, bam, just like spraying money everywhere.

这正是我在恐慌中的本能反应。

That's my instinct in a panic.

我确实这么做过几次，但我希望当时能做得更彻底，希望过去几年里我只做这一件事。

That's I've done it a few times, and I wish I had done it harder, and I wish I'd done only that over the past few years.

另一方面，你看到这种恐慌，AI正在冲击那些没有任何有形资产的领域。

On the other hand, you see this panic and AI is coming for things that have no tangible assets.

一家SaaS公司的全部价值在于软件工程师，在于合同，在于这些现金流。

A SaaS company, all the value is in the software engineers, all the value is in the contracts, all the value is in those cash flows.

这些都可能被人工智能迅速取代。

Those could get displaced really quickly by AI.

所以另一方面，指数级的进步正在冲击那些没有可变资产的领域。

So on the other hand, exponential progress coming for things that have no changeable assets.

这很可怕。

So that's scary.

我并没有很好的答案给你。

I've got no great answers for you.

我只有一段三十分钟的冗长谈话，最后我会谈谈作为一名投资者需要在傲慢与谦逊之间保持微妙的平衡。

I've just got a thirty minute rambling, and then I'll end it with some thoughts on kind of being an investor requires a really delicate balance of arrogance and humility.

你如何持续更新自己的观点？

How do you keep updating your thoughts?

你如何确保自己不会变成CNBC上那个自2011年以来一直看空市场的那个人？

How do you make sure you're not becoming the person on CNBC who's been saying I'm bearish on the market since 2011?

我最后再分享一些想法。

I end with some thoughts there.

这是我的每月随机碎碎念。

It's my monthly random meringueblades.

我们马上就能说到。

We're gonna get there in one second.

但在那之前，先听一段广告。

But first, a word from our sponsors.

本期播客由Fiscal dot AI赞助。

Today's podcast is sponsored by Fiscal dot AI.

Fiscal dot AI是一个专为投资者打造的现代数据终端，提供机构级平台体验，却无需复杂操作。

Fiscal dot AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional grade platform without the complexity.

无论你是个人投资者还是专业投资经理，Fiscal dot AI都能让你在一个直观的平台上，即时访问多年财务数据、收益电话会议记录以及公司特定的业务板块和关键绩效指标数据库。

Whether you're an individual investor or a professional portfolio manager, Fiscal dot AI gives you instant access to years of financials, earnings transcripts, and company specific segment and KPI databases, all in one intuitive platform.

它与其他平台相比有何独特之处？

What makes it stand out from other platforms?

速度、深度和易用性。

Speed, depth, and ease of use.

他们的数据在财报发布后几分钟内就会更新，而不是等一天。

Their data updates within minutes of earnings reports, not day.

细分收入、用户增长，所有数据一应俱全，轻松绘图、比较和导出。

Segment revenue, subscriber growth, it's all there, easy to chart, compare, and export.

我一直在用Fiscal AI以各种有趣的方式绘制图表、可视化不同的细分KPI和对比数据。

I've been using Fiscal AI for interesting ways to chart and graph and visualize different segment KPIs, comparisons, all of that.

我觉得这非常有趣，尤其是细分数据部分。

And I think it's been really interesting, particularly the segment.

真正关键的是细分数据。

It's really the segment data.

当你把这些数据画成图表时，可以得到一些非常有趣的对比，比如不同超市之间的利润率变化，以及它们随时间的演变情况等等。

When you put it in a graph, you can get some really interesting comparisons, know, margins from one grocery to another, how they've evolved over time, stuff like that.

总之，使用我的链接：fiscal.ai/yav。

Anyway, use my link, fiscal.ai/yav.

这是 fiscal.ai/yav，享受两周免费试用，外加任何付费计划享15%折扣。

That's fiscal.ai/yav for two weeks free plus 15% off any of their play any of their paid plans.

这是 fiscal.ai/yav。

That's fiscal.ai/yav.

好的，大家好，欢迎收听《Yet Another Value》播客。

All right, hello, and welcome to the Yet Another Value Podcast.

我是你们的主持人，沃克。

I'm your host, Walker.

今天和我一起的，还是我。

With me today, it's me.

这个月我将进行二月的月度随机闲聊。

I'm on for my monthly random ramblings for the month of February.

我原本打算下周或下下周做这个，但有一位播客嘉宾改期了。

I was going to do this next week or the week after, but I had a podcast guest reschedule.

所以我多出了些时间。

So, I had some extra time.

我当时就想，你知道吗？

Was like, you know what?

我最近想了很多事。

I've been thinking about a lot.

咱们开始胡扯吧。

Let's get on and ramble.

所以今天我要胡扯一些话题。

So, I'm going to ramble about some stuff today.

在开始之前，先做个免责声明：本播客中的所有内容都不是投资建议。

Before we get there, disclaimer, remind everyone nothing on this podcast is investing advice.

我今天应该不会谈到任何具体的股票，只谈一些对市场的总体看法。

I don't think I'm going be talking any specific stocks today, just general market thoughts.

但请记住，这些都不是投资建议。

But please remember, nothing is investing advice.

我给你讲个故事。

I'll tell you a story.

我最近剪了头发。

I got a haircut recently.

你知道我为什么去剪头发吗？

You know why I got a haircut?

因为有人在YouTube的评论里说：老兄，你的头发太蓬松了，完全失控。

Because somebody came onto one of the YouTube comments and said, dude, your hair is so floofy and out of control.

你Zoom背景的模糊效果都看不出你的头发是什么样子。

The blur on the background of your Zoom screen can't even pick up your hair.

我当时想：哦，天哪。

I was like, oh, dang.

如果都失控成这样了，那确实该剪头发了。

If it's that out of control, mean, you need a haircut.

我现在居然听从YouTube上陌生人的建议来决定什么时候剪头发。

I'm taking advice on when to get haircuts from randos on YouTube.

你真的应该听我讲任何关于投资的事情吗？

Should you really be listening to me on anything on investing?

不。

No.

绝对不。

Absolutely not.

请在播客末尾查看完整免责声明。

See the full disclaimer at the end of the podcast.

好的。

Alright.

今天，我先说几件事。

Today, I've got a few things I want to start with.

我是在2月12日星期四录制的这段内容。

The thing I'm recording this on Thursday, February 12.

让我先谈谈今年到目前为止彻底主导市场的那件事。

Let me start with the thing that's like, just really taken over the markets so far this year.

那就是人工智能热潮在市场中蔓延，对吧？

And that's the AI pain spreading throughout the markets, right?

这种现象最明显的地方是软件即服务（SaaS）领域，因为每天都有人说：‘会不会一切都被人工智能取代了？’

And the place this is most obvious is in software as a service SaaS, which is just like blowing up every day because people are saying, hey, is everything going to get ripped out by AI?

但这股浪潮也波及其他领域。

But it's to other places.

我是在2月12日录制这段内容的。

I'm recording this on February 12.

今天，办公软件正在暴涨。

Office is blowing up today.

你可以去看看一堆办公类股票，它们已经下跌了10%，这对办公楼相关股票来说已经是很大的波动了。

You can go look at a bunch of office stocks that are down 10%, which is big moves for office buildings.

对吧？

Right?

我认为这是因为市场在想：‘这些公司都要大规模裁员，所有办公室将永远空置了吗？’

And I think it's because the market is looking saying, hey, all these companies going to fire everyone and all the offices are going to be empty forever?

我不确定。

I don't know.

但在我看来，这似乎是唯一能想到的原因。

But it seems to me that's the only thing I can think of.

另一个是零担货运。

And then another one is LTL trucking.

这些公司比如RXO、ODFL之类的。

So these are things like RXO, ODFL, all these type of stuff.

它们今天跌幅巨大。

They're down huge today.

RFO下跌了大约20%。

RFO is down like 20%.

ODFL也下跌了。

ODFL is down.

我正在输入它。

I'm typing it in.

OFL下跌了大约5%。

OFL is down five ish percent.

它们下跌是因为有人认为，某家速成的仙股发布了一份关于将人工智能应用于零担运输的报告，导致股价下跌。

They're down because some, I believe it's because some like fly by night penny stock released a paper on using AI for LTL and they're down.

所以这种影响正在迅速广泛蔓延。

So it is spreading wildly, really quickly.

我的意思是，这周早些时候，保险行业就受到了冲击。

I mean, earlier this week, saw insurance get hit.

我们看到经纪商也受到了影响。

We saw brokers get hit.

这种影响正在迅速扩散到各个领域。

It's spreading really quickly throughout.

这不仅仅是SaaS，其他所有领域都在上涨。

It's not just SaaS, everything else going up.

所以我想要谈谈这个问题。

So I wanted to talk about that.

我所说的很多内容虽然属于SaaS，但与所有领域都相关。

And a lot of the stuff I will say is SaaS, but it relates to everything.

总的来说，我真希望我的职业生涯里什么都没做，只专注于应对恐慌。

In general, I wish I had done nothing in my career but run into panic.

我喜欢说，在恐慌中，我把恐慌看作是有人在拥挤的剧院里大喊‘着火了’。

I like to say in panics, I view a panic as somebody shouting fire in a crowded theater.

当所有人都往外跑的时候，我却想冲进去。

And I want to be running in when everyone's running out.

在这些事情上，这正是我的本能。

That's my instinct in these things.

我能想到的最近几次恐慌，都是银行和崩盘的生物技术公司。

And the last few panics I can think of were banks and busted biotechs.

2025年初是崩盘的生物技术公司，2023年初则是银行，就在SIVB和第一共和银行崩盘之后。

Busted biotechs in 2025, early twenty twenty five, banks in early twenty twenty three, after the SIVB and the First Republic crash.

说实话，我真希望过去几年里我什么都没做，只专注于这些机会，因为它们的表现实在太好了，对吧？

And to be honest, I wish I had done nothing but a focus on those opportunities over the past couple of years because they did incredibly, right?

你不想说‘每次恐慌都不同，一切都不同’。

And you don't want to say '2, every pain is different, everything's different.

所以，总之，这些是最近几次表现很好的恐慌时刻。

So anyway, those are the last panics that they worked out great.

我在这里很担心，对吧？

I'm worried here, right?

对我来说，毫无疑问，SaaS 和许多其他领域正陷入恐慌。

Like there's no doubt to me that there's a panic in SaaS and a lot of these sectors.

而且我再次强调，我特别关注 SaaS，但这种现象已经开始影响其他领域。

And again, I'm focused specifically on SaaS, but it's starting to apply to other sectors.

在过去一周里，你会看到 SaaS 股票每天普遍下跌 10%。

Over the past week, you will see days where SaaS, every name is down 10%.

我的意思是，这些公司之间根本没有任何关联。

And I mean, these are names that have nothing to do with each other.

我常拿它们做比较，比如 Salesforce，它完全是企业级的 CRM 系统。

The ones I like to compare are like, you'll have Salesforce, which is literally enterprise level CRM.

像这样的大公司，一天下跌 10% 或 5% 都算非常大的波动了。

You'll have that down 10% or 5% on a day because it's kind of big, 10% is a really big move.

但Duolingo是面向消费者的，俗称学习外语的应用。

But that's not and Duolingo, which is consumer, quote, unquote, learning how to learn a foreign language.

我用引号是因为我用了两年Duolingo，每天坚持，却只学会了大约十个波兰语单词。

I use quotes because I did Duolingo for two years, and I think I learned 10 words of Polish despite tuned every day.

所以你看这两个例子。

So you'll those two.

它们都会下跌10%。

They'll be down 10%.

整个板块正在遭受重创。

And it's just the whole sector is just getting hammered.

我见过这种恐慌。

And I've seen panics.

比如银行业恐慌、生物科技恐慌。

Again, the banking panic, the biotech panic.

我见过其他的恐慌。

I've seen other panics.

当整个行业在一天内下跌10%，而且被重创的都是完全不相关的公司时，这通常意味着市场出现了恐慌，也通常意味着市场出现了错配。

When you have whole sectors that are down 10% on the day and it's just completely disparate names getting hammered, that's generally when there's a panic and that's generally when there's dislocation.

所以我喜欢在这些恐慌时刻进场。

So I want to run into those panic attacks.

这是我的直觉。

That's my gut.

对于SaaS公司来说，这很难判断。

It's hard with SaaS.

对于银行，我会说，现在人们担心银行挤兑和所有资产归零。

With banks, I would say, now there are worries about bank runs and everything getting zeroed.

但银行不同，你拥有大量有形资产，而且你的商业模式已经存在了很长时间——它之所以能存在这么久，是有原因的。

But with banks, like you have a bunch of tangible equity, you've got a business model that has been around for It's the second oldest business in the world for a reason.

它已经存在了五千年。

It's been around for five thousand years.

很难说，我们未来就不需要银行了。

It's hard to say, hey, we're not going to have banks going forward.

即使你是一个加密货币至上主义者，认为未来的每一家银行都将运行在互联网上之类的。

Even if you were a crypto maximalist saying, hey, every bank going forward is going to be run on the internet or whatever.

这些银行拥有十亿美元的有形权益，却以六亿、七亿美元的价格出售，远低于账面价值。

These were banks that had a billion dollars of tangible equity and were selling at 600,000,000, 700,000,000 selling way below book.

所以，如果你有信心，你可以进场并进行市值调整，说硅谷倒闭是因为他们没有正确对债券进行估值。

So if you were confident, you could go in and you could do the mark to market adjustment and say, hey, Silicon Valley blew up because they weren't marking their bonds properly.

如果你进入这些银行，发现这些债券和贷款的估值是合理的，而我仍然以大幅折扣买入，且银行挤兑的风险已经消失，我的意思是，它们简直是绝佳的投资标的，对吧？

If you went into these banks and said, hey, these bonds and these loans are marked properly and I'm still buying for a big discount and the run on the bank risk is gone, I mean, they were great values, right?

至于生物技术公司，去年它们下跌的原因是人们担心FDA。

With biotechs, I mean, of the reason biotechs sold off last year is because people were worried about the FDA.

我认为，我们最近在FDA看到的一些情况——比如撤销某些基因疗法的批准——确实印证了这些担忧，但这并不是重点。

And I think those concerns are proven out a little bit by some of the stuff we're seeing at the FDA with pulling the ball on specifically gene therapies and stuff, but neither here nor there.

在三月和四月，这些生物技术公司的股价低至远低于其现金价值，你甚至不再需要担心了。

With biotechs in March and April, these things were trading so far below cash value that you no longer had to worry.

我的意思是，它们连科学项目都算不上了，对吧？

Mean, they weren't even science projects anymore, right?

如果第二天科学就死了，那就是资本配置出了问题。

If the science was dead the next day, you had capital allocation issues.

所以，我想说的是，这两者都有有形资产，对吧？

So anyway, what I'm saying is with both those, they had hard assets, right?

至于软件，问题在于那里并没有真正的有形资产。

With software, the issue is there's not really a hard asset there.

这些公司建立在比两年前高出数倍的收入倍数之上。

These built on, these are trading at multiples of two years ago, multiples of revenue.

现在我说，它们的估值已经是现金流的数倍了。

Now it's multiples of cash flow, I'd say.

但即便如此，那里的盈利也可能迅速蒸发。

But still, the earnings there can evaporate quickly.

一旦盈利消失，股东就什么也剩不下了。

And when they do, there's nothing left over for the equity holders.

这很可怕，因为即使你认为你无法替代它，你还是会不断使用Salesforce，因为它们实在太难以被一个用Vibe编码的CRM取代了。

And think that's scary because even if you look at If you come to this and you say, Hey, you can't replace And I just keep using Salesforce over and over again because they're just such a you can't replace Salesforce with a Vibe coded CRM.

确实如此。

That is true.

今天确实如此。

That is true today.

但人工智能的发展正以指数级速度提升。

But the AI stuff is improving at an exponential rate.

我想让你回顾一下两三年前，当时每个人都会展示他们的成果。

And I would point you to go back two, three years ago when everybody would show the value.

我脑子里有一个例子。

I've got one that is in my mind.

就像威尔·史密斯的一张照片。

It's like a picture of Will Smith.

是威尔·史密斯在做各种动作的视频。

It's a video of Will Smith doing stuff.

而两年前的那个版本，看起来就像一部恐怖片，角色像是用蜡或奶酪做的，正在融化，有八根手指，动作全是卡顿的。

And the version two years ago, it kind of looked like a horror movie where the character was made of wax or cheese and he was melting and he had like eight fingers and he was stop motion doing everything.

那太糟糕了，对吧？

It was terrible, right?

然后你再快进到今天，人们已经天天在用这些了，对吧？

And then you would fast forward to today and people treat this all the time, right?

这就像不同模型的V1版本和V4版本之间的对比。

It's the V1 versus V4 of a bunch of different models.

再快进到今天，他们制作出这些东西，这些视频已经和顶级好莱坞电影难以分辨了。

You fast forward today and they make these things and it's indistinguishable from A level Hollywood movies these videos are getting made.

所以在三年内，你从那些恐怖、噩梦般的人物，直接跃升到几乎无法与顶级电影区分的内容。

So that's in three years, you go from just horror figures, nightmarish type stuff to stuff that is kind of indistinguishable from A level movies.

而且这些内容都在被瞬间生成。

And these are getting spun off instantly.

对吧？

Right?

你可以说，哦，现在AI工具还不能取代Salesforce，还不能取代你选的任何SaaS服务。

You can say, Oh, an AI tool can't replace Salesforce, can't replace Pick your SaaS service right now.

好吧，也许现在还不行。

Okay, maybe it can't right now.

但如果这些技术正在呈指数级进步，那么多久之后，一个快速生成的Salesforce或任何你想要的SaaS工具能达到企业级水平呢？

But if these things are improving exponentially, how long till a spun up Salesforce or a spun up whatever SaaS tool you want to is at the same level of enterprise level thing?

这将会快得惊人。

It's going to be really effing fast.

我看到一些专业保险公司因为Anthropic推出了一款基础的保险产品，就在周一股价大跌。

And I saw some people who specialty insurers or something would sell off on Monday because Anthropic rolled out like a basic insurance product.

我还看到一些人本能地想：这个市场是不是太蠢了？

And I saw some people who instinctively were like, How stupid is the market?

这些专业保险公司竟然因为这个而股价下跌。

The specialty insurers selling off on this.

这根本算不上竞争对手。

It's not even competitor.

但我认为这种想法完全错了，对吧？

And I think that's exactly wrong, right?

创新发生在最底层。

Innovation happens at the lowest level.

如果一个AI工具推出了一种非常基础的功能，比如我们能够为所有市场标准化定价人寿保险。

And if an AI tool rolled out a very basic, hey, we can price life insurance as very standardized across all markets.

能够比任何人都更好地为人寿保险定价。

Can price life insurance better than anyone else.

他们推出了一种非常标准化的模型，我认为有理由认为，如果他们现在在人寿保险上做得完美，三年后他们就能做专业保险。

They rolled out a very standardized model that I think it's right to look at that and say, Hey, if they're doing life insurance perfectly right now, in three years, they're going to be able to do specialized insurance.

他们能做任何事情吗？

Are they going to be able to do anything?

所以我真的想进去买入，但我的担忧是，人类很难理解指数级进步及其走向。

So I've really been I want to go in and buy it, but my concern is just it's very hard for humans to understand exponential progress and where it's going.

这很可怕。

It's scary.

现在那里有很多反对声音，对吧？

Now there's lots of pushbacks there, right?

我曾经遇到过一个反对意见，一直牢记在心。

One pushback that I had that I've kept top of my mind.

我记得在2021年，时不时会有人提到2021到2022年这段时间。

I remember in 2021, every now and then I would get 2021, 2022 range.

时不时会有一个大学生给我发邮件。

Every now and then I'd have generally a college student who would email me.

他们说，嘿，我觉得Twitter是个很好的例子。

They would say, hey, I think Twitter was a very popular one.

我觉得Twitter会被做空。

I think Twitter is a short.

我花了一天时间自己写了一个Twitter的竞争对手。

Here is a Twitter competitor that I coded on my own inside of a day.

对吧？

Right?

但那完全错了。

And that was exactly wrong.

对吧？

Right?

哦，厉害。

Like, cool.

你能写出 Twitter。

You can code Twitter.

重做 Twitter 并不难。

It's not hard to recreate Twitter.

Twitter 网站本身并不是 Twitter 的独特之处。

The Twitter website is not what is unique about Twitter.

真正独特的是网络效应。

It is the network effects.

是那里所有的用户。

It is all the people being there.

是所有人的关注。

It is all the eyeballs on that.

Twitter已经一再证明，这些网络效应极其难以打破，对吧？

Twitter has proven it time and time again, those network effects are extremely difficult to break, right?

所以，我把这个道理应用到SaaS领域：即使Anthropic、Cloud或其他公司能写出一个Salesforce的竞品，也不意味着它们就真正创造出了一个Salesforce竞品，对吧？

If So I take this to SaaS, just because Anthropic, Cloud, whatever it is, can code a Salesforce competitor does not mean it has made a Salesforce competitor, right?

涉及的人非常多。

There's lots of people involved.

有大量Salesforce的用户。

There's lots of Salesforce.

有太多复杂的东西了。

There's lots of things.

没有哪家公司会把整个系统都切换到‘嘿，Claude’上。

And no company is going to switch over a whole log to, Hey, Claude.

Claude做出的东西在视觉上看起来像Salesforce，对吧？

Claude made something that visually looks like Salesforce, right?

但这根本不是一个可行的模式。

Like that's not a working model.

所以，这仅仅是我想说的下行风险中的一个注意事项。

So that's just one caveat to the downside risk I'm saying.

但我认为，如果你把这种情况推演下去，我觉得会变得相当可怕。

But I do think if you play it out, I think it gets pretty scary.

所以，我还想谈一下其他几件事。

So just a few other things I want to talk about that.

在银行业，三年前，你作为通才，只要顺应银行恐慌情绪，就能赚得不错。

With banking, I think you could be a generalist and buy into the banking panic and do pretty well three years ago.

现在，我确信银行业专家可能做得更好一点，但作为通才，你真正要做的就是看看资产负债表，读一读附注，然后说：嘿，这家银行有坚实的存款基础。

Now, I'm sure banking specialists could have done a little bit better, but being a generalist, all you had to really do was go look at the balance sheet, read the footnotes, and say, hey, this bank has a good deposit base.

它没有债券、贷款或其他交易远低于账面价值的巨大公允价值问题。

It doesn't have these huge mark to market issues with bonds, loans, whatever it is, trading way below book.

如果你普遍这样分析，那在那次恐慌中，你在银行业通常都能赚到不少钱。

And if you did that across the board, you generally made pretty good money in banks in that panic.

生物科技领域，情况也一样。

Biotech, same thing.

如果你去分析，发现这家公司的股价远低于其现金价值。

If you went and you said, hey, this company is trading for way below cash.

他们并没有把现金浪费在疯狂的科研项目上。

They're not burning it on insane science projects.

我不认为任何生物科技公司都真正高度一致，但确实有一些股东是利益一致的。

And I don't think any biotech's ever really that aligned, but there's shareholders who are kind of aligned.

你可以赚到相当不错的收益。

You can make pretty good money.

对于SaaS行业，作为普通投资者入场真的很难，对吧？

With SaaS, it's really difficult being a generalist and coming in here, right?

因为这些公司的商业模式差异巨大，而且AI对它们的影响也各不相同。

Because again, all the business models are very disparate and you're definitely going to see different impacts from AI for a lot of these.

我可以告诉你，当我与行业专家交流时，他们一直在与首席信息官沟通、做额外访谈、参加研讨会和进行调查。

And I will tell you, when I talk to sector specialists, sector specialists are talking to CIOs, they're doing extra calls, they're doing panels, they're doing surveys all the time.

你作为普通投资者进场，声称要趁恐慌时买入，但面对的是这些不断做深度调研的行业专家，你如何竞争？

Go in and being a generalist and saying, Hey, I'm going to buy into this panic when you're competing against sector specialists with that type of check.

这有点吓人。

It's kind of scary.

我给你举个例子。

And I'll just give you one example.

我打过一些电话。

I've done I've done some calls.

我确信行业专家做得更多，但我最近听到三个月前和我聊过的人说，哦，我从来不会用AI做那事。

I'm sure sector specialists are doing a lot more, but I'm hearing in real time someone I talked to three months ago who's saying, Oh yeah, I'd never use AI for that.

现在开始说，哦，我在考虑了。

Starting to say, Oh, thinking about it.

或者，哦，我在调整一些关于利润率的习惯。

Or, Oh, I'm changing some habits around the margin.

当你注意到这些变化，并且发现这家SaaS公司按历史数据看估值很低时。

And when you're picking up on that and you're saying, Hey, this SaaS company looks cheap on a trailing basis.

让我们把股票薪酬重新加回去。

Let's put the stock comp back in.

它们的自由现金流倍数为10倍。

They're trading at 10 times free cash flow.

当你听到两个月内，一个没有任何有形资产的企业时，这真的令人害怕。

It's really scary when you're hearing in two months, a business that has no tangible assets.

人们正在讨论如何改变使用方式，或者AI如何产生影响之类的。

People are talking about changing how they're using it or how AI is impacting and stuff.

所以这真的令人害怕。

So it's really scary.

有一件事，我已经多次听人提到，但你可能想看到的是，最顶尖的人总是最慢采纳技术变革的。

One thing, and I've had multiple people point this out to me, but one thing that you probably want to see is the highest end people are always the slowest to roll out changes in technology.

他们总是最谨慎的。

They're always going be the most cautious.

所以你的大型银行，像摩根大通这样的机构，通常会非常缓慢地采用新事物。

So your largest banks, your JP Morgan stuff, they're generally going to be pretty slow to adopt things.

实际上，银行可能不是个好例子，因为更小的银行才是最慢采纳网上银行的。

Actually, banks might not be great because it's the smaller banks who've been the slowest to adopt online banking.

但最大的公司通常比最小的公司更慢。

But the largest players are generally going to be slower than the smallest players.

所以我经常听到有人说，你可能应该去调查50家拥有大约500名员工的公司首席信息官，问问他们：你们在用Salesforce吗？

So, one thing I've heard a lot of people say is, hey, what you probably want to do is you probably want to go survey like 50 CIOs of companies that have about 500 employees and ask them, Hey, using are Salesforce?

你们在用XYZ吗？

Are you using XYZ?

你们在用……然后你想看看有多少人回答是。

Are you using And you want to see how many of them say yes.

然后你可能还想调查那些现在只有25名员工的公司，看看两年前他们还是500人规模时，有多少人已经在使用Salesforce或你感兴趣的任何SaaS产品。

And then you probably want to go and survey companies that now have 25 employees and see how many were using Salesforce or whatever SaaS you want two years ago when they were a 500 person employee.

你想看看，是否开始出现小公司推迟采用这些SaaS工具的现象，因为它们现在可以用AI工具替代，而这些工具正是大公司两年前使用的。

And you want to see, hey, maybe you're starting to see small companies delaying when they start using the SaaS that these companies would have used two years ago because they can use the AI tools.

如果你开始看到这种趋势，它就会逐渐蔓延到更大的公司。

And if you're starting to see that, it's going to start bleeding out to the larger people.

所以这是我最近一直在思考的一件事。

So that's one thing I've been thinking about.

哦，还有另一件事。

Oh, other thing.

每件事都有两面性。

There's always two sides to a coin.

你看到SaaS蓬勃发展，而我也看到很多人大力推崇实物资产。

And you're seeing SaaS blow up, and I've seen a lot of people pounding the table on hard assets.

一段时间以来的前六周，你看到大量实物资产、更多周期性品类开始受到追捧。

For the first time in a while, the first six weeks, you've seen a lot of hard assets, a lot of more cyclical stuff really start to catch a bid.

这挺有意思的。

It's been kind of interesting.

这就像一种逆转。

It's like a reversal.

但我看到一些人说，也许实物资产受到追捧是因为人们在寻求避险。

But I've seen some people say, hey, maybe hard assets are catching a bid because they're a flight to safety.

对吧？

Right?

你在弗吉尼亚有一座很棒的煤矿。

You've got this great coal mine in Virginia.

我不知道有没有哪个煤矿是真正棒的，但你确实有一座在弗吉尼亚的很棒的煤矿。

I don't know if any coal mine is great, but you've got this great coal mine in Virginia.

不管人工智能是否取代了所有工作，这座煤矿都会继续产煤。

It's going to be producing coal whether AI replaces all the jobs or not.

而且说实话，它可能还是煤炭的受益者，因为我的电力需求实在太大了。

And honestly, might be a coal beneficiary because, hey, I demand so much power.

还有很多其他例子，比如钢铁。

There's lots of other examples, steel.

我稍微写过、也思考过的一个例子是水泥。

One that I have written a little bit about and thought about is cement.

一百年后，无论人工智能是否已经普及，我们都会继续使用水泥。

We're going to be using cement a hundred years from now, whether AI is here or not.

水泥是修建道路和建筑的基础材料。

Cement is the basics for roads, buildings.

我确信我们还会修建道路。

I'm sure we're going to be building roads.

我们会建造大楼，所有这些都会继续。

We're going to be building buildings, all that.

水泥在AI数据中心中的使用量很大。

Cement gets used a lot in AI data centers.

我实际上认为这会带来有利趋势。

I actually think there's tailwinds to that.

而且这是一个非常本地化的市场，对吧？

And it's a very local market, right?

我不认为AI能解决水泥非常沉重、难以长途运输的问题。

I don't think AI is going to solve the fact that it's really Cement's really heavy and it's really difficult to ship long distances.

所以我看到很多人谈论硬资产作为一种避险投资，因为它们基本上不受AI影响。

So I've seen lots of people talk about hard assets as a flight to safety trade just because they're kind of AI proof.

在某种程度上，这可能是对的。

And that's probably right to some extent.

但我要说，小心你所期望的，因为很多这些实物资产，可能会被人工智能取代。

But I will say, be careful what you wish for because a lot of these hard assets, think AI might replace them.

再说办公楼，人们开始担心，如果因为人工智能，所有办公楼都空置了怎么办？

Again, office buildings, people are starting to worry, hey, what if all the office buildings are empty because of AI?

我觉得这种担忧被夸大了。

I think that's overblown.

但我想说的是电力。

But I would point to power.

我说的是煤炭。

I say coal.

人们在说，石油。

People are saying, hey, oil.

石油的需求将会增加。

Oil is going be in demand.

煤炭，不管是什么，需求都会增加。

Coal, whatever it is, is going be in demand.

大概吧。

Probably.

到目前为止，人工智能对电力行业非常有利。

AI has been great for power so far.

人工智能极大地增加了电力需求。

AI has really increased power demand.

我确实有些担心。

I I do worry.

人工智能，你知道，它太聪明了。

AI, you know, it it is it is so smart.

如果人工智能破解了高效电池和储能技术的密码怎么办？

What if AI cracks the code on kind of efficient batteries and storing storing power?

这对煤炭和天然气来说非常不利，因为一旦人工智能破解了这个密码，将太阳能和风能与高效电池结合起来，这类能源就会变得非常不乐观。

That's really bearish for a coal for NAT gas because all of a sudden, solar and wind, you combine that with efficient batteries if AI cracks that code, gets really bearish for that type of stuff.

所以这只是一种可能性。

So that's just one way.

总之，SaaS、SaaS末日、AI特效，我一直都在想这个问题。

Anyway, SaaS, SaaS Apocalypse AI After Effects, it's been on my mind.

正如你所听到的，我一直在胡言乱语，因为我也不知道答案。

As you can tell because I'm rambling, I don't know the answer.

我真的不知道答案，但我一直在反复思考。

I I don't know the answer, but I've been thinking about a lot.

哦，我想我该重新接上话题了。

Oh, I guess I'll jump back in.

我还想到另一件事，你知道吗？我现在确实经常思考媒体与SaaS之间的关系，对吧？

One other thing I've thought, you know, if you look at I do think a lot about media as it pertains to SaaS right now, right?

2010年代的媒体，有线电视套餐是最棒的，可能是人类历史上最成功的商业模式。

Media in the 2010s, the cable bundle was the greatest thing that it was probably the greatest business that's ever been invented.

一旦你掌握了分发渠道，就会产生巨大的网络效应。

Once you got distribution, you had a huge network effect.

要取代你非常困难。

It was very difficult to take you out.

你可能会被踢出去，但如果你拥有体育赛事转播权之类的东西，那就太棒了。

You could get kicked out, but particularly if you had sports rights and stuff, it was just awesome.

它如此出色的原因之一是，对于很多娱乐内容来说，分销成本非常高。

And one of the reasons it was so great is because for a lot of entertainment, there was huge distribution costs.

如果你想制作一档电视节目，或者想成为新闻广播员，你不仅需要分销渠道，需要在很多频道上播出，而且还需要演播室、大量设备和背后的一整支团队。

If you wanted to make a TV show or if you wanted to be a news broadcaster, you needed, A, you needed the distribution, you needed to be carried on a lot of channels, and B, you need a studio, you need a lot of equipment, you need a lot of people behind the scenes.

这些成本已经大幅下降了。

Those have come way down.

在2010年，如果我告诉你YouTube和iPhone会摧毁有线电视频道，你可能会觉得我疯了，但它们确实彻底摧毁了有线电视频道。

In 2010, if I told you YouTube and the iPhone were going to destroy the cable channels, you'd probably look at me like I'm crazy, but they have really destroyed the cable channels.

Netflix加上华纳兄弟可能会率先冲过终点线，因为他们认为YouTube占据的时间比人们观看Netflix的时间还要多。

Netflix plus Warner Brothers might get over the finish line because they argue YouTube takes more time up than people watching Netflix does.

YouTube到底做了什么？

What has YouTube done?

它大幅降低了分销成本，让一个人就能成为主角，而以前这需要一整个团队。

It's brought distribution costs way down and it's made it able for one person to kind of be the star versus before it would have taken a whole team.

我这么说是为了说明什么？

Where am I going with this?

我不禁想，对于AI来说，以前如果你是一家SaaS公司，规模是不是很重要？

I do wonder if one of the things with AI is previously, if you were a SaaS company, scale was important, right?

你需要数百名软件工程师、数百名销售人员才能做到这一点。

You need hundreds of software engineers, hundreds of salespeople to kind of get that.

每个人都开发一个产品，然后把它卖出去，对吧？

Everyone would develop one product and they would sell it out, right?

如果我把这个类比用在YouTube上，会不会出现不需要几百人的情况？

I wonder if you kind of played this out in the YouTube analogy, if what happens is you don't need hundreds of people.

云代码可以购买CRM之类的代码。

Cloud Code can buy code, of a CRM or something.

你只需要一到三位独特的软件工程师和两位出色的销售人员。

And what you need is one unique software engineer or three unique software engineers and two great salespeople.

他们所做的就是去大公司说：嘿，你们选我们吧，我们会全职陪着你们。

And what they do is they kind of go to big companies and they say, hey, you choose us and we're basically going to be with you full time, right?

我们会一直陪在你身边，手把手指导。

We're going be there holding your hand.

我们会让AI自动生成一个CRM系统，然后我们再进行定制开发。

We're going to have AI spin up a CRM and then we're going to custom code.

我们会调整最后那5%，让它完全贴合你的需求，为你打造一个真正量身定制、完美适用的CRM系统。

We're going to make the last 5% that tweak it around you so that you've got a custom CRM that fits and works exactly for you.

所以我在想，这会不会是一种碎片化趋势呢？

So I wonder if like it's a fragmenting, right?

在过去网络时代，只有一个明星赚取所有钱并获得所有名气。

Whereas before in the network era, was, Hey, there's one star who makes all the money and gets all the fame.

而在YouTube时代、TikTok时代，有成百上千的明星都在赚取巨额收入。

And then in the YouTube era, the TikTok era, there are hundreds of stars who are making tons of money.

你知道吗，我头上开始长出更多白发了。

You know, I'm starting to get more grays on my head.

我根本不知道现在20岁的孩子们在看哪些TikTok博主，但这些博主赚的钱多到你难以想象。

I have no clue who the 20 year olds are watching on TikTok, but there's all these TikTokers who are making more money than you can believe.

对吧？

Right?

但他们不像詹妮弗·安妮斯顿或沃尔夫·布利策那样是全国知名的名人。

But they aren't nationally famous like Jennifer Aniston or Wolf Blitzer or something was from years back.

所以我想表达的是，我很好奇AI是否因为降低了分发成本和规模化成本。

So guess what I'm driving to is I wonder if the AI, because it brings the cost of distribution down, it brings the cost of scale down.

如果你看到很多这样的情况：十年前，我是最好的软件工程师，我会被甲骨文或Salesforce聘用。

If you see lots of things where, hey, I'm the best software engineer, ten years ago, I would have gotten employed by an Oracle or Salesforce.

但未来，我会自己创业，自己雇佣自己。

Going forward, I get employed and I kind of work my own business.

我有两个很棒的客户，我与我最好的朋友合作，他是负责维护客户关系的销售人员。

I've got two great clients, I partner with my best friend who is the salesperson who really maintains that relationship.

而我只是在边缘地带编程，实际上赚得更多。

And I'm kind of just coding around edges and I actually get paid more.

也许这是一种更有风险的模式，我不确定。

Now maybe it's a riskier model, I don't know.