与Antipodes的菲利普·纳马拉一起飞越Volaris论文

你即将收听《又一个价值》播客，我是主持人安德鲁·沃克。

You're about to listen to Yet Another Value podcast with your host, me, Andrew Walker.

今天的播客有点不一样。

Today's podcast is a little bit of a different one.

我请来了来自Antipodes的菲尔·纳马拉。

I've got Phil Namara on from Antipodes.

Antipodes是一个规模非常大的、专注于澳大利亚的全球ETF。

Antipodes is a really, really big Australian focused global ETF.

我之所以说它有点不一样，是因为我们要聊到墨西哥。

And the reason I said a little bit of a different one is because we're going out to Mexico.

我们要讨论的是Volaris。

We're talking about Volaris.

那里的股票代码是VLRS。

The ticker there is VLRS.

让我确认一下，没错，那里的股票代码是VLRS。

Let me make sure I got that right while Yes, VLRS is the ticker there.

这是一家低成本的墨西哥航空公司，正如你将听到的，它有许多不同的方面。

This is a low cost Mexican airline that has, as you're going to hear, just a bunch of different angles to them.

国内市场的顺风、增长故事、运力受限，还有一桩有趣的并购案，监管方面如何，谁也不知道？

Domestic tailwind, growth story, capacity constrained, interesting merger that regulatorily, who knows, who doesn't know?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但确实有很多不同的角度。

But just a lot of different angles.

一个非常好的消息是，菲尔在播客一开始就说自己是一名记者。

And the really good news is Phil starts off the podcast by saying he's a journalist.

但你接下来会听到，我也会在播客中告诉他，他在整个航空业方面做了大量研究，非常专业。

But you're going hear, and I'll tell him during the podcast, he has done a lot of work and he's very knowledgeable on the airline sector across the board.

所以，如果我要夸自己，我觉得我提了一连串有趣的问题。

So I think if I'm going pat myself on the back, I think I come in with a bunch of interesting questions.

如果我要更大力地夸他，我觉得他全都回答得非常好。

And if I'm going to pat him on the back even harder, I think he answers them all really well.

所以我认为你们会从中了解到很多关于低成本航空业的整体情况，以及Volaris的商业模式和机遇。

So I think you're going to learn a lot about the low cost airline industry in general and the business model and opportunity at Volaris as well.

而且，这确实是一个有趣的案例。

And, you know, it's an interesting one.

我真希望我们能多聊一个小时，但我得去托儿所接我女儿。

I wish we could have gone for an hour longer, but I had to go pick up my daughter from daycare.

所以我们不得不中断了。

So we had to cut it off.

我们马上就会说到那里。

We're going to get there.

请提醒大家，本播客中的所有内容都不构成投资建议。

Just remind everyone nothing on this podcast is investing advice.

这是一只在本国上市但属于国际新兴市场的股票。

This is a domestically listed but international emerging market stock.

所以请记住这些因素。

So keep all that in mind.

请在播客末尾查看完整免责声明。

See the full disclaimer at the end of the podcast.

我们马上进入本期播客，但首先，让我们听一段赞助商广告。

We're gonna hop into this podcast in one second, but first, a word from our sponsors.

本期播客由Fiscal.dot.ai赞助。

Today's podcast is sponsored by Fiscal dot ai.

Fiscal.dot.ai是一个为投资者打造的现代数据终端，提供机构级平台功能，同时避免了复杂性。

Fiscal dot ai is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional grade platform without the complexity.

无论你是个人投资者还是专业投资经理，fiscal.ai都能让你在一个直观的平台上即时访问多年的财务数据、收益 transcripts 以及公司特定的业务板块和关键绩效指标数据库。

Whether you're an individual investor or a professional portfolio manager, fiscal.ai gives you instant access to years of financials, earnings transcripts, and company specific segment and KPI databases, all in one intuitive platform.

它与其他平台相比有什么独特之处？

What makes it stand out from other platforms?

速度、深度和易用性。

Speed, depth, and ease of use.

他们的数据在财报发布后几分钟内就会更新，而不是等上一天。

Their data updates within minutes of earnings reports, not day.

细分收入、用户增长，所有数据都在那里，轻松绘图、比较和导出。

Segment revenue, subscriber growth, it's all there, easy to chart, compare and export.

我一直在用Fiscal AI以各种有趣的方式绘制和可视化不同的细分KPI和对比数据。

I've been using Fiscal AI for interesting ways to chart and graph and visualize different segment KPIs, comparisons, all of that.

我觉得这非常有趣，尤其是细分数据部分。

And I think it's been really interesting, particularly the segment.

真正重要的是细分数据。

It's really the segment data.

当你把这些数据绘制成图表时，可以得到一些非常有趣的对比，比如不同超市之间的利润率变化，以及它们随时间的演变情况，诸如此类。

When you put it in a graph, you can get some really interesting comparisons, you know, margins from one grocery to another, how they've evolved over time, stuff like that.

总之，使用我的链接：fiscal.ai/yav。

Anyway, use my link fiscal.ai/yav.

这是fiscal.ai/yav，免费试用两周，并享受他们任何付费计划的15%折扣。

That's fiscal.ai/yav for two weeks free plus 15% off any of their play of their paid plans.

这是fiscal.ai/yav。

That's fiscal.ai/yav.

好的。

Alright.

你好，欢迎收听《Yet Another Value》播客。

Hello, welcome to Yet Another Value Podcast.

我是您的主持人安德鲁·沃克。

I'm your host, Andrew Walker.

今天我很高兴邀请到一位来自南半球的嘉宾。

With me today, I'm happy to have on from the Antipodes.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

The Yeah.

还是来自希腊的人。

Still people from the Greek.

来自南半球的菲尔·纳马拉。

From Antipodes, Phil Namara.

菲尔，最近怎么样？

Phil, how's it going?

我很好。

I'm good.

我很好。

I'm good.

谢谢你，安德鲁。

Thanks, Andrew.

感谢你邀请我参加。

Thanks for having me on.

非常高兴你能来。

I'm super excited to have you on.

真的很兴奋。

Really excited.

我得告诉你，今天我们聊的这只股票让我回想起了几段旧伤。

I I will tell you the stock we're gonna talk about today brought back a couple of old war wounds for me.

但是，你看。

But, look.

在我们深入之前，先做个简短的免责声明。

Before we get there, quick disclaimer.

提醒大家，这个播客里的所有内容都不是投资建议。

Remind everybody, nothing on this podcast is investing advice.

你知道的，完整的免责声明请见播客末尾。

You know, see, see the full disclaimer at the end of the podcast.

今天这一点尤其重要，因为我们即将涉及国际市场。

That's probably particularly true today just because we're going we're going international.

我们要去墨西哥，一个新兴市场，还有航空公司，各种风险都更高。

We're going to Mexico, emerging market, airlines, all sorts of heightened risks.

所以请自行做足调研，不要盲目投入所有资金。

So please do your own diligence, not invest invest all that.

总之，Phil，我们想聊的这家公司，我很高兴你提到了，因为它真的很有意思。

Anyway, Phil, the company we wanna talk about, I'm really glad you brought them to mind because it is really interesting.

它是Volaris。

It's Volaris.

它的股票代码是VLR S，在美国国内交易，但这是一家墨西哥航空公司。

The ticker, it trades in The US domestically, v l r s, but this is a Mexican airline.

我就不多赘述细节了。

And I'll stop spilling all the details.

我直接交给你了。

I'll just toss it over to you.

Volaris是什么？为什么它这么有趣？

What is Volaris, and why are they so interesting?

是的。

Yeah.

很好。

Great.

再次感谢你，安德鲁。

Thanks again, Andrew.

Volaris是一家墨西哥低成本航空公司。

So Volaris is a Mexican low cost carrier.

他们运营一支空客A320neo机队，其中大部分——或许55%——的运力都用于墨西哥国内航线。

They fly a fleet of Airbus NEOs, and they do majority or maybe 55% of their airline capacity is dedicated to the Mexican domestic market.

其余的则主要是往返美国的跨境航线。

Then the rest is US transborder mostly.

简而言之，这就是他们的业务模式，而该公司由一家私募股权公司拥有，这家公司在全球还拥有多家其他低成本航空公司。

And yeah, that's a bit of a summary of the business, and they're owned by a private equity firm that owns a bunch of other low cost airlines globally.

我之所以注意到它，某种程度上是因为‘反向’的背景。

And I guess it sort of came upon my radar given the sort of Antipodes.

我们通常从长期产业导向的研究入手。

We tend to start with longer life industry based sort of research.

因此，我们评估价值的方式是尝试进行相对性分析。

And so the way we sort of think about value is we try to think about it in terms of a relative assessment.

也就是说，我们会关注整个行业的情况，以及该公司相对于该行业或子行业的表现，并寻找多种可能的胜出方式。

You know, what's happening with the industry, what's happening with the company relative to that industry or sub sector, and we sort of look for multiple ways of winning.

我认为在这种沃拉里斯的具体情况下，有多种获胜的方式。

And I think in this particular situation with the Volaris, there are multiple ways of winning.

所以，我们会投资于从高增长但无盈利的公司，到像煤炭公司这样市盈率极低的企业。

So, you know, we'll invest in sort of, you know, growth to high growth, no earnings to, I guess, even coal companies, so very low multiples.

这只股票符合我们的很多标准。

And this stock sort of checks a lot of our boxes.

所以，安德鲁，也许最好的开始方式是先聊聊航空公司。

And so maybe the best way to start about this, Andrew, is just to talk about airlines.

你提到你有相关背景，是的。

You sort of mentioned you've got a history Yeah.

有

With

在我们深入之前，如果你允许我插一句轻松的话，你刚才谈到更多地关注——我不想说是资产导向型，但你提到了煤炭公司，更偏向现实世界中的事物。

Before we get there, if you'll just let me jump in with one quippy thing, which you talked about kind of looking at more, I don't wanna say asset based, but you threw coal companies, more things in the real world, that sort of stuff.

这真有趣，因为我也倾向于这种思路，尽管过去三年市场似乎一直在削弱这种倾向，因为每件事都……但有趣的是，如果你坚持下来，过去六周还不足以形成趋势，但我们现在是2月17日录制的，而你所说的一切——比如投资煤炭公司——现在看来都对了。

It's so funny because think I lean that way too, though it was kind of starting to get beaten out in me a little bit by the market over the past three years where just like every, And so funny, if you stuck with it, the past, now who knows, six weeks does not make a trend, but you and I are recording February 17 and like everything you said, well, invest in coal companies.

我的意思是，煤炭公司的情况，已经不是2022年初俄乌战争刚爆发时那种一片顺遂的日子了。

I mean, coal companies, It's not the days of the Ukraine Russia invasion early twenty twenty two when all of them were smooth.

但任何实物资产、这类东西，确实都得到了回报。

But anything hard assets, anything there, they really have been rewarded.

我一直在想，十年前有人说过，字节是容易的。

And I keep thinking like ten years ago, somebody said, hey, bytes are easy.

真正难的是原子。

It's atoms that are hard.

股市现在开始意识到，字节其实竞争激烈，而原子才是难点。

The stock market is starting to incorporate like bytes are really competitive and atoms are hard.

所以我想说的是，我不知道你是否也有同感，或者你觉得我只是在过度推断，但过去六周，市场似乎确实表明，菲尔和安蒂波德斯所推崇的这些更硬核的资产、更长期的产业，才是未来趋势所在。

So I guess I was just saying, I don't know if you feel the same way, if you think I'm just extrapolating, but it does feel like the past six weeks, the market has kind of said, hey, what Phil and Antipodes are pitching, these harder assets, these longer based longer life industries is kind of where the puck is going for a lot of these things.

在我们进入通话前，先发一通牢骚。

So just a general rant before we hop into the call.

请随意，我们可以直接跳到Volaris。

Please feel free to we can go straight to Volaris.

你可以对这些发表任何看法，你想怎么讲都行。

You can comment on any of that, whatever you wanna do.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我承认你所说的话。

Well, I mean, acknowledge what you've said.

比如，从十一月以来，感觉几乎所有旧世界股票都经历了一次疯狂的重新估值。

Like, absolutely the last maybe since like the November, it feels like there's just been a crazy rerating of basically any old world stock.

而且很多股票的涨幅，我认为已经超出了基本面所能支撑的范围。

And a lot of them, I think, are also running, I guess, further than the fundamentals would suggest.

但归根结底，就我们的投资理念而言，关键还是价值所在。

But I think at the end of the day, when it comes to maybe like our philosophy, it's sort of, you know, what the value is.

我的意思是，我们确实能在这些股票中找到价值。

I mean, we can find value in some of those.

想象一下，你正在谈论最近暴涨的软件股。

Imagine you're talking about the software stocks that have sort of blown up recently.

我认为整个领域都有价值。

I think there's value across the spectrum.

所以我们并不像你所说的那样，偏向于所谓的旧世界或新世界、轻资本企业。

So we're not like, you know, biased to certain, call it, old world versus new world, capital light businesses.

我认为每样东西都有一个合适的价格，取决于未来的增长和韧性。

I think there's just a right price to pay for everything based on future growth and resilience.

是的。

Yeah.

不，这确实没错。

No, it's certainly true.

只是让我觉得有趣的是，三年前，人们还在说，你提到的煤炭公司。

It's just interesting to me where three years ago, I think people were saying, you said coal companies.

当时认为煤炭公司毫无价值，终端价值为零。

There's zero value to Terminal value to coal companies was that.

而今天，人们却在说，那些被炒到天价的软件公司，其终端价值其实也值得质疑。

And today people are saying, hey, these software companies that people are bidding to the stratosphere really questioning the terminal value.

而且我认为这是有道理的，对吧？

And I think rightly so, right?

AI在这些领域正呈指数级进步。

AI is improving exponentially in these.

而煤炭公司，也许它们确实没有终端价值，但它们的终端价值正在被赋予更高的估值。

And the coal companies, hey, maybe they still have no terminal value, but they're starting to award a lot more of a terminal value.

尤其是水泥，我特别关注并对此很感兴趣。

Especially cement's one I've really looked at and been interested in.

我还没采取行动，但你知道，二十年后、两百年后，水泥依然会存在。

I haven't pulled the trigger or anything, but you know cement will be there twenty years from now, two hundred years from now.

你可以很有把握地说，我们未来还会大量使用水泥来制造各种东西，而这也正获得更高的估值倍数。

Like, you can feel pretty good we're gonna be using cement to make a lot of things and that's getting rewarded premium multiple.

总之，谢谢你和我一起畅谈。

Anyway, thank you for rambling with me.

我很想继续聊下去。

I'd love to go.

尤其是过去一年，对Volaris来说非常有趣。

The last especially year has been really interesting for Volaris.

请从你感兴趣的任何起点开始讲述这个故事。

Please take the story from the starting point wherever you wanna go.

你看，我在这里看着你。

And I've got you see me looking over here.

我这里有整整两页半的笔记和问题，我们肯定没法全部讲完。

I've got literally two and a half pages of notes and questions, so there's no way we'll get through them all.

但我已经准备好讨论了。

But I am ready to talk about it.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

好的。

Okay.

贝基，你希望我先具体谈谈Volaris吗？

Becky, you want me to talk specifically about Volaris to start?

是的

Yeah.

你希望从航空公司开始讲起吗？

Feel You wanna to start with airlines.

请随意从航空公司开始讲。

Please feel free to start with airlines.

是的

Yeah.

我觉得

I feel like

因为我知道，你的很多听众可能都是美国的。

because I recognize, I think a lot of your listeners are probably US based.

所以他们自然会认为航空公司，真是个糟糕的行业。

And so rightfully so think airlines, what a crappy business.

你知道的，这是一个不好的行业，对吧？

You know, it's a bad industry, right?

就这个行业而言，我认为其商业模式本身就非常困难，历史上资本回报率一直很低，并且由于几个原因持续破坏价值，对吧？

As in the industry, I guess just the nature of the business is very difficult, historically being very low return on capital and a value destroyer for a few reasons, right?

我认为第一个原因是，你的资本支出周期非常长。

I think the first is, you know, you have a very long capital outlay timeline.

所以，你订购机队时，往往要提前五到十年，才能真正投入运营，而你销售的是一种边际成本为零的商品——也就是说，多卖一个座位的成本几乎是零。

So you, you know, you order the fleet, you know, five to ten years before you even enter into operations, and then you sell a commodity with zero marginal cost, as in the cost to sell or to fill an additional seat on the plane is zero.

因此，在需求低迷的时期，票价可能会急剧下跌。

So in periods of bad demand, fears can drop dramatically.

我认为特别对于美国而言，这个行业之所以如此艰难，还因为监管机构允许的整合或退出非常有限，这导致了更明显的产能过剩时期。

And I think specifically for The US, part of why it's been a pretty rough industry is also that I think the regulators have also allowed pretty minimal consolidation or attrition, which has led to more pronounced sort of periods of overcapacity.

但当我思考是什么因素长期推动高回报时，比如2017年之前的西南航空，甚至瑞安航空，我认为有两个关键驱动因素。

But when I think about what sort of creates a Some of the drivers of high returns over time and a sustained high return, like for example, Southwest, I guess prior to 2017 and even Ryanair, I think there are sort of two key drivers.

第一个是，你在网络布局上确实拥有竞争优势。

The first is that, you you do you have a competitive advantage with respect to your network.

这种优势通常来自于规模。

Typically that comes from scale.

因此，你能提供更密集的航线网络，让消费者在飞行选择上有更多空间。

So you're able to offer, you know, a higher density network that is consumers can pick between flying.

如果错过航班，他们只需再等两三个小时就能搭乘同一航班，而且目的地更多。

If they miss their flight, they can just fly, take that same flight again in two or three hours time, more destinations.

而这所有的一切都源于规模效应。

And again, this all comes with scale.

这让你能为消费者提供更优的航班时刻安排。

And that gives you a better ability to offer like a better schedule for consumers.

其次，还有成本优势。

And then secondly, there are cost advantages.

比如西南航空和瑞安航空就是完美的例子。

So, you know, Southwest, Ryanair, perfect examples.

如果你从事的是商品销售业务，成为低成本运营商更有利。

If you're in the business of selling a commodity, it's better to be the low cost player.

或许第三个推动高回报的因素，我认为与漫长的资本投入周期有关。

And then maybe the third sort of driver of a high week, I think it's related to that long capital outlay timeline.

所以，当出现需求强劲而供给增长跟不上时——我认为在美国，2010年到2016年期间就出现了这种情况——那时你可以看到强劲的票价表现。

So, when there are periods of really strong demand that outstripped supply growth, which I think sort of in The US, I think you saw that between, call it, 2010 and 2016, that's when you can see strong pricing.

但你知道，这是一个周期性行业。

But then, you know, this is a cyclical industry.

因此，那些盈利的公司会停止订购飞机，基于当前的利润预期未来，结果突然间就出现了相对运力过剩的情况，而这种状况可能需要好几年才能消化。

So the players that are profitable, they'll, you know, wrap up their orders of their fleet, you know, extrapolating the profit today forward, and all of a sudden, you're left with a relative overcapacity situation, which can take years to sort of unwind.

我可以在这里打断一下，就整个行业问几个简单的问题吗？

Can I pause you there and ask a couple of quick questions just on the industry overall?

你提到了瑞安航空和西南航空，对吧？

And you mentioned Ryanair and Southwest, right?

我觉得这些案例很有趣，因为西南航空长期以来一直是一只很棒的股票。

I think those are interesting because Southwest for a long time, this was a great stock.

但如今，西南航空可能已经远远超越了当初的模式，因为它实际上已经演变成了一家大型航空公司。

And then they basically now, maybe Southwest is so far beyond it because they basically evolved into one of the big airlines.

但从2015年到现在，它的股价基本停滞不前。

But the stock pretty much stalls out from I'm looking from 2015 to today.

过去十到十一年里，这只股票基本没什么变动。

It's basically a flat stock over the past ten, eleven years.

现在发生了许多事情。

Now, there's a lot of things that happen.

显然有新冠疫情等各种因素，但我认为没人会说西南航空最近创造了多少价值。

Obviously, there's COVID and everything, but I don't think anybody would say Southwest recently has created a lot of value.

这一点同样适用，虽然我可能更关注国内市场的公司，但我也会看Frontier和Spirit，我对Spirit做了大量研究。

And that would apply again, I might have a domestic focus, but I look at a frontier, a spirit, which I've got a lot of war rooms from spirit.

这些公司都没能创造任何价值。

None of these guys have created any value.

其中许多公司已经破产，甚至多次破产，Frontier可能也快撑不住了。

Many of them have gone bankrupt or multiple bankruptcies, Frontier probably circling the drain.

瑞安航空表现非常出色，但我看它时，并没有像你那样关注国际市场。

Ryanair has been a killer, but I look at that and I don't have the same international focus you do.

但我看它时，就会想起沃伦·巴菲特说过的一句话：在我投资航空公司之前，提醒我打个电话给1800-AIRLINES-ANONOMOS之类的热线。

But I look at that and I say like Warren Buffett's old thing, before I invest in an airline, remind me to call one-eight hundred AIRLINES ANONOMOS or something.

瑞安航空是那个证明规则的例外吗？

Is Ryanair the exception that proves the rule?

还是存在其他类型的低成本航空公司

Or are there other kind of low cost airlines

低成本。

Low cost.

全球范围内哪些航空公司真正创造了价值？

Airlines globally that are creating actual value?

是的。

Yep.

我会提到Volaris，但你其实已经帮到我了。

Well, I'll point to Volaris, but you've you've you've you've sort of helped me.

也许我可以解释一下，为什么美国的航空业有点像

Maybe maybe I'll explain why The US has sort of been like a bit of an

这太棒了，因为墨西哥的航空结构是欧洲式的

It's fantastic because on this Mexican structure is European structure

非常不同。

is Super different.

墨西哥的模式是不同的，可能只是美国和我本国的思维难以理解。

Mexican structure is different, and it might just be something US and my domestic brain can't handle.

所以，请说吧。

So please, yes.

那太好了。

That'd be great.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是整合的结果。

Look, I think it's a function of consolidation.

最重要的是，可能是长期影响航空公司盈利能力的最关键因素是相对市场份额。

Think most important, probably the most important driver of airline profitability over time is relative market share.

在美国，你有三大老牌航空公司，它们占据了国内约65%到70%的运力。

So in The US, you have the legacies, the big three that are like 65 ish to 70% of domestic capacity.

在2008年之后的时期，整个行业的订单增长非常缓慢，而像精神航空和边疆航空这样的低成本航空公司却非常盈利，这是因为油价从每桶100美元左右跌到了40美元。

And during the period post 2008 when the order book growth across the industry was very low, You saw the low cost carriers like your Spirits and your Frontiers, they were really profitable also because oil went from what, a $100 a barrel down to 40.

它们当初规划机队扩张时，是基于每桶100美元的油价。

And they'd sort of planned their fleet growth around a $100 per barrel.

因此，它们在捕捉溢出客流方面非常有效。

And so, they were really, really effective in sort of capturing like spill traffic.

所谓溢出客流，指的是那些因为航班已满而被拒绝登机的潜在乘客，这些航班通常属于老牌航空公司。

So that refers to potential passengers who are like turned away or rejected because a flight is fully booked, so fully booked at the legacies.

我认为，除了这些点对点航空公司大量增加运力之外，真正改变美国航空业的关键因素是基本经济舱的出现。

And I think sort of the key thing that changed in this industry beyond, you know, I guess, rampant capacity additions from those point to point players is, I think, basic economy really changed things in The US.

所以，老牌航空公司中，我认为最早是从达美航空开始的。

So, the legacies, I think it started with Delta.

它们多年来在产品上进行了相当重大的投资。

They made, you know, pretty significant investments over multiple years in products.

所以，高端座位、机场贵宾室、房地产、新航站楼、廊桥以及技术。

So, you know, premium seats, airport lounges, you know, real estate, new terminals, concourses, and technology.

它们的规模加上忠诚度计划，帮助它们以一种能够进行价格歧视的方式对票价进行细分，从而不再让低成本航空公司或点对点运营商承接溢出客流。

And their scale combined with loyalty has helped them to basically segment fares in a way such that they can price discriminate and no longer spill traffic for the low cost carriers or the point to point players.

我来给你举个具体的例子。

And I'll give you a very sort of like an example of that.

比如说，你从亚特兰大飞往奥兰多。

So, you know, let's say you're flying, I don't know, from Atlanta to, like, Orlando.

对吧？

Right?

亚特兰大是联合航空的枢纽，但它们在那里只占大约12%到13%的运力，不过它们仍是当地规模最大的航空公司。

Atlanta is United's hub, but I think about 12 or 13% of their capacity is there, and they're the largest airline there by quite a bit.

所以在疫情前、基本经济舱推出之前，市场需求非常充足。

And so, you know, in the, call it the pre COVID, also pre basic economy world, there was ample demand.

因此，它们的航班都是满员的。

And so their planes were full.

但现在往前看，市场上增加了大量飞机。

But now fast forward, you've had a lot more planes into the market.

市场上出现了更多窄体飞机，联合航空在财报中表示，他们现在将飞机上约15%到20%的座位保留给基本经济舱。

You've a lot more narrow bodies into the market, and United now reserves about I think on their calls they say about 15 to 20% of their seats on the plane are reserved for basic economy.

这实际上是他们提供极低票价，比如每张机票100美元，以与低成本航空公司价格抗衡。

And what that is is effectively they will go and offer like a rock bottom fare, like a $100 a ticket to basically price match the low cost carriers.

而飞机上的其余座位则是高端舱位，许多乘客相对不敏感于价格，因为第一，他们知道，如果错过这趟航班，两小时后总能搭上下一班联合航空的航班。

And then the rest of the plane is premium seating, whereby a lot of the passengers, right, are relatively price insensitive because, a, they know, again, if they miss this flight, they can always get the next United flight in two hours' time.

第二，他们很可能用忠诚度积分支付机票，所以清楚自己的信用卡权益。

B, they're probably paying for the flight with their loyalty points, so they know their credit cards.

实际上，他们会算一笔账：哦，对，我的信用卡积分可以抵扣。

Actually, they do the of the math of, Oh, yeah, my credit card points.

我可以支付这笔费用。

I can pay for it.

所以实际上，我只花了100美元，而不是200美元。

So, actually, I'm only paying a 100 as opposed to 200.

所以突然之间

And so all of a sudden

商务旅客对价格非常不敏感。

Business traveler business travelers are very price insensitive.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

所以突然间，如果你把三大航空公司占国内70%运力的20%容量加起来，现在就有了14%的超低价座位。

And so all of a sudden, you if you add up, well, 20 points of capacity across the big three who are 70% of domestic capacity, now you have 14 points of of of extremely low cost seats.

作为参考，边疆航空约占美国运力的3%。

For context, Frontier is like 3% of US capacity.

精神航空，我认为约占美国运力的3%。

Spirit, I think, is like was like 3% of US capacity.

天西航空、阳光航空、捷蓝航空这些公司，如果把它们加起来，规模几乎相当于市场上新增的这种超低价座位总量。

Allegiant, Sun Country, JetBlue, like, guys are all you know, they're like, if you sum them up, they're almost equivalent in size to the amount of this dirt cheap capacity that's been added to the market.

对吧？

Right?

因此，在我看来，这是一种非常残酷的竞争策略，传统航空公司得以实施。

And so that is like a, in my view, like a pretty brutal competitive strategy that legacies have been able to enact.

这正是导致Spirit倒闭并正在摧毁Frontier今天的原因。

And that's what's killed what's killed or Spirit and is killing Frontier today.

对吧？

Right?

因为，你知道，

Because, you know

所以让我从国内市场转向更广泛的市场，我认为这将帮助我们引出Volaris，因为这里还有其他问题。

So let me move from the domestic market to just like general markets more broadly, and I think this will help us bring us to to Volaris because there are other questions here.

我认为发生的事情是，如果我可以总结一下，

I think what happened if I could sum

的话

it up

从我的角度来看，美国的情况是，这些大型航空公司拥有巨大的规模优势。

from my point, what happened was with the in The US, you had these huge scale advantages.

在美国，这些巨大的规模优势最终复制了精神航空和边疆航空的基本经济模式。

And in The US, the the huge scale advantages eventually copied the basic economy model, the spirit, the frontier model.

它们复制了这种模式，本质上把精神航空和边疆航空挤出了市场，这就是发生的事情。

They copied it and basically put them out of business is what has happened.

所以它们找到了价格歧视的方法。

So they've found ways to price discriminate.

而且，它们还拥有巨大的规模优势、信用卡优势、运营优势和时刻优势，但在欧洲，瑞安航空，我不太熟悉欧洲市场。

And again, they've got huge scale advantages, credit card advantages, operating advantages, slot advantages, all In sorts of Europe, Ryanair, I don't think And again, I'm not as familiar with the European.

瑞安航空拥有精神航空和边疆航空在美国所复制的所有这些优势，但它们一直能够领先于所有那些可能更慢的欧洲传统航空公司。

Ryanair has all these things that Spirit and Frontier Charge copy in The US, but they basically have been able to stay one step ahead of all of the legacy, probably slower European airlines, but they've been able to stay one step ahead.

我认为欧洲市场要碎片化得多，尤其是在那些短途国际航线上，它们在这方面取得了很大成功。

And I think Europe is so much more fragmented, especially with the short international hops that they they've had a lot of success with that.

我想，如果我要讨论墨西哥的Volaris，也许我们可以深入探讨一下。

I guess if I was coming to Volaris in Mexico, maybe we can, like, dive into that.

但当我观察它们时，尤其是在这次合并之后——我们 definitely 需要谈谈这一点——它们已经相当庞大了。

But when I look at them, they, especially after this merger, which we definitely need to talk about, but they're pretty big.

所以我想问的是，它们并不是最大的。

So I guess my question is, they're not the biggest.

它们采用的是低成本模式，但这种模式真的能成功吗？

They're coming at this with a low cost model, but can that really succeed?

它们是不是处于一个很奇怪的位置？

Like, are they in a weird spot?

我不太确定自己想表达什么，但我很想知道。

I don't quite know where I'm going, So, but I'd love to

我的意思是，你提到了一个关键点。

mean, you've touched on, I think, a key point.

在欧洲，传统航空公司所占的相对市场份额并没有那么高，A。

Like, in Europe, the legacies don't have as high a relative market share, A.

B，真正有帮助的是，那里还有大量低成本机场。

B, I think what's really helpful is there are lots and lots of lower cost airports as well.

所以，你知道，我觉得去年第二季度的电话会议上，联合航空的首席执行官提到，飞往纽约——我忘了具体是哪个机场——每位乘客的着陆费是47美元，而捷蓝航空只收70美元，他们怎么可能盈利呢？

So, you know, I think the it was on the, I think, the second quarter call last year, United's CEO basically mentioned that, you know, to fly into New York, I forget which particular airport it is, but the airport landing fee per passenger is $47, and JetBlue was charging $70 So how are they ever gonna be profitable?

对吧？

Right?

而在欧洲，每个城市都有大约三个机场，因此瑞安航空可以进入其中一个机场，说我们要把这里的乘客量翻三倍，但你们得把着陆费降到每人10美元，机场方面也会同意。

Whereas in, you know, in Europe, there is like three airports in each city, and so Ryanair can move into one of those airports and say, we're gonna triple the passenger volume here, but you're gonna charge us $10 per passenger as landing fees, and the airports comply.

所以，这种规模优势，再加上能够使用所谓的二线低成本机场，非常有利。

And so that that scale advantage plus, like, access to, call it, secondary second tier low cost airports is very helpful.

此外，欧洲的传统航空公司或全服务航空公司，其运营水平根本无法与美国的相比。

And then, yeah, don't the legacies in or legacies or full service carriers in Europe are just nowhere near as they're just not as sophisticated as those in The US.

因此，瑞安航空的快速增长及其相对规模优势，已经向他们倾斜，使得他们能够持续在欧洲取得胜利。

And therefore the growth of Ryanair, like the rapid growth of Ryanair and the relative scale has tipped into their favor such that, yeah, they can have been able to continue winning over there.

接下来，我们谈谈墨西哥。

Now, then to move on to Mexico.

好的，请说。

Yes, please.

这个

The

我认为墨西哥航空业可能是这个行业中最出色的结构性故事之一，因为它在2000年左右时的情况与美国有些相似，当时基本上是墨西哥航空和墨西哥国际航空两家全服务航空公司的双头垄断。

Mexican air industry, I think, is probably one of the best sort of structural stories in that this industry sort of looked a bit like The US maybe in It 2,000 and was basically a duopoly between Mexicana and Aeromexico.

它们是两家全服务航空公司，类似于你们的达美航空和美国航空。

They were two full service carriers, similar to your Delta and Americans.

但一夜之间，四家低成本航空公司就在十二个月内相继成立，导致座位供应过剩。

And overnight you had four low cost carriers launch within twelve months, and there were too many seats.

随后发生了一场票价大战，航空业的玩家数量从13家锐减至2019年的4家。

And what followed was basically a fare war whereby the airline industry went from 13 players all the way down to four into 2019.

真是疯狂至极的票价大战。

So just crazy, crazy Fare Wars.

所有人都在订购新飞机，而当你获得一架新飞机时，尤其是新一代飞机，你的每座成本会比竞争对手低15%到20%。

Everyone was ordering new jets, and, know, when you get a new jet, especially if it's like the next generation of jet, your cost per seat is like 15 percent or 20% lower than your next peer.

因此，确实爆发了一场相当残酷的价格战。

And so, yeah, you had a pretty brutal price war.

在这段时间里，市场需求从2500万乘客增长到了2019年的1700万。

And in that time, the market in terms of demand grew from 25,000,000 passengers all the way to 17,000,000 in 2019.

而这一增长的大部分——也就是这个市场的结构性增长——实际上来自于从长途巴士中抢夺份额。

And most of that growth, like the structural growth in this market, it actually comes from taking share from buses.

在墨西哥，每年有30亿人次乘坐这种长途巴士旅行数小时，每人单程票价约为50到100美元。

So in Mexico, you have 3,000,000,000 passengers annually who travel for several hours on these long range buses, and they're paying like 50 to a $100 for a trip.

因此，从每小时旅行成本来看，乘坐沃利斯航空实际上非常非常便宜。

And so on a dollar per hour of travel basis, you know, flying with Volaris is actually really, really cheap.

但我认为，为什么这30亿人次没有立即转为航空乘客，是因为这需要一种思维或行为上的转变。

But I guess the issue and why those 3,000,000,000 haven't converted to passengers immediately is I think it just requires a mind shift or behavioral shift, actually.

这是很重要的一部分，哦，继续。

It's a big part of Oh, go on.

哦，不是的。

Oh, no.

如果我可以的话，你正好说到我这边的幻灯片了。

If I can you're hitting on the slide that I have.

这来自我们要讨论的一次合并。

This is from there's a merger we're gonna talk about.

这是来自去年12月的一份合并演示文稿。

There's a merger presentation from December.

这是第九页幻灯片。

It's slide nine.

真正引起我注意的是，你刚才说的Exactly这一点。

And the thing that really jumped out to me is exactly what you're saying.

嘿，他们描述了高管们的故事，而高管们是最大的旅客群体。

Hey, they describe the stories with bosses and bosses are biggest traveler.

我认为他们还提到其他内容，比如有些人从未坐过飞机。

And I think they say other stuff like, hey, there are people who they've never flown before.

去机场对他们来说是一个很大的障碍。

Going to the airport is a big barrier for them.

但他们有这张幻灯片。

But they've got this slide.

他们说，我们面临的很多竞争来自巴士。

They say, hey, a lot of the competition we have is buses.

如果你看看墨西哥的GDP，以及平均每人每年乘坐航班的次数，并与其他新兴市场比较，他们特别提到土耳其的GDP和我们差不多。

And if you look at Mexican GDP and how many flights the average person is taking per year and compare it to all sorts of emerging markets, the one that they specifically call out is Turkey's got about the same GDP as us.

当地人每年出行1.3次，而在墨西哥，每人每年只乘坐0.5次航班。

And people are taking 1.3 trips per year, whereas in Mexico, they're taking 0.5 airline trips per year.

墨西哥的规模出人意料地大。

And Mexico is surprisingly big.

我之前没意识到这一点。

I didn't realize this.

我觉得从墨西哥最南端到最北端，差不多相当于从佛罗里达最南端到加拿大某地。

I think that from the bottom of Mexico to the top is like the bottom of Florida to somewhere in Canada.

所以它确实非常长。

So it is it is very long.

他们说，嘿。

They they're saying, hey.

如果你能理解这一点，墨西哥市场就会一夜之间扩大130%。

If you just get that, the Mexican market is a 130% bigger overnight.

当然，有很多统计数据，我敢肯定他们做了一些调整。

Obviously, there's a lot of stats, and I'm sure they play with a little bit.

但我真的很欣赏的一点就是你所说的。

But I one of the things I really liked is exactly what you're saying.

你知道，你们有这些航空公司。

You you know, you've got these airlines.

你们很可能拥有大量固定运力，而这里有着巨大的有机增长顺风。

You've probably got a lot of fixed capacity, and you've got a huge tailwind for organic growth here.

是的，没错。

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

正是如此。

Exactly.

因此，多年来，当我与他们交谈时，他们说，他们会直接让销售人员站在巴士车站，向人们提供优惠：如果你是第一次坐飞机，只要选择乘坐沃利斯航空，就可以免费获得你的第一次飞行。

And so, I think over the years, when I've spoken to them, they said that they would literally have their salespeople just standing at the bus service terminals, offering people, if it's going to be your first flight ever, you can get a free first flight if you decide to come and fly with Volaris.

这真是一个非常强劲的自然需求顺风。

It's a really, really big sort of natural demand tailwind.

因此，他们的客流量主要由首次乘机者和探亲访友的人驱动，这意味着相比普通的休闲旅行，他们的价格敏感度略低一些。

And so their traffic is mostly driven by first time flyers and then visiting family and relatives, which means it's a little bit less sort of like, I guess, price sensitive compared to sort of leisure travel.

所以，你有这个背景，我指的是产能或需求，每年增长大约七到八个百分点。

And so you have, I guess that's the backdrop of capacity or demand, sorry, grows seven, call it seven or eight points a year.

然后，就市场本身而言，我停在了2019年，因为我觉得那是一个值得注意的时期。

And then the actual market itself, I mean, I stopped at 2019 because I think that's a notable sort of period.

2019年时，只剩下四家了，对吧？

In 2019, there was only four left, right?

因此，当时最大的三家占据了国内运力的76%左右。

And so you had, I think it was the big, quote, the top three accounted for 76% of domestic capacity.

而在2019年，第四名玩家Interjet则是一种略带混合模式的公司。

And in 2019, you had the number four player, Interjet, which was sort of like a bit of a hybrid model.

它们并不是典型的低成本航空公司，因为它们的飞机并不是最新的A320或B737。

They weren't a low cost carrier in that their planes were not the newest A320s or B737s.

他们飞的是这些老旧的俄罗斯飞机。

They were flying these old Russian jets.

但在2019年下半年，他们破产了，我觉得他们的管理团队当时简直被国际刑警追着跑。

But in the back end of 2019, they went into bankruptcy and I think, you know, their management team were like getting chased by Interpol.

当他们退出市场后，就在那年下半年，你可以明显看到票价出现了一个跃升。

And when they came out of the market, immediately in that second half of the year, could see theirs take a step change higher.

所以，如果我要总结一下这个投资逻辑，现在我认为，当前的逻辑是，现在只剩下三家航空公司。

And so, look, if I want to summarize the pitch, like, right now, I think, you know, the pitch right now is today there are only three players.

而通过这次合并，我们将变成只有两家公司主导的市场，我预计票价还会再出现一次显著上涨。

And with this merger, we're gonna go to a two player market, and I anticipate you will see another step change up in fares.

我们来谈谈这次合并吧。

Let's talk about the merger.

所以，在

So in

12月，我想就这次合并问你很多问题。

December And I want to ask you a lot of things about this merger.

但在12月，Volaris和Viva宣布了一项平等合并。

But in December, Volaris and Viva,

我认为这是这家公司，

I believe is the company,

宣布了一项平等合并。

announced what amounts to a merger of equals.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为股东持股比例大约是50比50。

I think shareholders were around 5050%.

Volaris的债务略多一些，但无所谓。

Volaris is a little bigger debt, but whatever.

这是一次平等合并。

It's a merger of equals.

他们宣布了一次平等合并。

They announced a merger of equals.

我的意思是，股票因为你说的那些原因一路飙升，对吧。

And I mean, the stock's flying higher, right, for all the reasons you're talking about.

首先，将两家航空公司合并，通常会产生巨大的协同效应。

First merging two airlines together, generally, there's huge synergies.

有趣的是，他们在电话会议中强调，这两家航空公司将继续完全独立运营。

Interestingly, they emphasize on the call, hey, these two airlines are going to operate completely separately.

但他们会合并，以便实现协同效应。

But they're going merge them to there's going to be synergies.

这相当于把竞争对手赶出市场，尽管他们打算让两家公司独立运营。

It takes competitor off the market, I guess, even though they're going to operate them differently.

但我想先停在这里。

But I want to just stop there.

我们可以再聊聊合并的事。

We can talk about the merger thing.