夜视团队的罗德里克·范祖伊伦谈Marex $MRX

通常来说，他们的并购策略是：先拥有规模庞大的清算业务，然后前往中东收购一家经纪公司，这实际上意味着他们收购了客户关系，有时还包括在尚未接入的交易所进行交易的能力。

Generally, the M and A playbook that they do is they've got the clearing business with a lot of scale, then they go to The Middle East and they buy a brokerage business over there, which effectively means they buy client relations, and in some cases, capabilities to trade on another exchange where they haven't onboarded yet.

但总的来说，你买的是客户关系。

But generally, you buy client relations.

在他们最近的一次收购中，据我所知，第一天就实现了50%的利润增长，因为他们在美国商品期货交易委员会（CME）和洲际交易所（ICE）的清算费用更低。

On day one, one of their recent acquisitions, I think, on day one had a 50% profit uplift because they have lower clearing fees at CME and ICE.

他们拥有规模优势。

They have scale.

这些协同效应并不难实现，不需要在未来几年费力去争取。

That's not difficult synergies that you need to try and get over the next couple of years.

第一天，他们就实现了50%的利润增长。

Day one, they managed to grow profitability by 50%.

当你拥有这些客户后，就会尝试与他们开展更多业务。

Then when you have those customers, you try to do more business with them.

就像我说的，你有了航空公司，就会尝试向他们销售的不只是石油期货，还有利率期货。

Like I said, you have the airline and you try to sell it not just oil futures, but interest rate futures.

所以这基本上就是他们的操作模式。

So that's sort of been the playbook.

而且附加值很高，他们支付的倍数却相当低。

And the value add is high, and the multiples that they're paying is pretty low.

他们现在在做市领域进行了一些收购，支付了三到四倍的收益。

They've done some acquisitions now in market making where they're paying three or four times earnings.

之后还有增长空间。

And then there's growth after that.

如果你支付这样的倍数，就不难理解为什么25%的净资产收益率或更高仍然可能实现。

If you're paying that sort of multiples, it's not hard to see why 25% ROE or better remains possible.

我能就你提到的三到四倍的倍数暂停一下吗？

Can I pause you on the multiples, the three or 4x multiples?

我确实听懂了你的意思。

I definitely hear you.

但你提到的协同效应，也就是第一天的利润提升，让我想起了以前的有线电视网络。

But the synergies you talked about, the day one uplift, is very reminiscent to me of the cable networks of old.

你把TNT和USA合并了，然后他们又会说，抱歉，不能叫TNT USA。

You had TNT merged with USA, and then they would go and say, hey sorry, it wouldn't be TNT USA.

你把USA和NBC合并了。

You have USA merged with NBC.

然后他们说，嘿，Comcast，你以前每个用户为USA支付5美分。

And then they go and say, hey, Comcast, you used to pay $05 per sub for USA.

现在你把USA屏蔽了，你就得把NBC也屏蔽了。

You black USA out now, you're going to have to black NBC out.

于是原本5美分变成了10美分。

And it goes, what was 5¢ becomes 10¢.

所以这是收购当天的收益。

So day one acquisition.

我完全明白这一点。

I totally get that.

但反驳这种说法的是，NBC和Fox也会有同样的协同效应，所以它们应该相互竞争，把价格推高，以体现这种协同价值。

But the counter to that is, hey, you know, NBC and Fox would both have that same synergy, so they should compete to drive the price up to kind of price that synergy up.

你看，这里有Marex，还有其他买家。

Here, you know, you've got Marex and you do have other buyers here.

那为什么人们以三到四倍的价格出售呢？

So why are people selling for kind of three or four x?

为什么没人说，天啊，我们会有协同效应呢？

Why isn't it just getting, you know, Marex says, Oh, my God, we'd have synergies.

StoneX说，天啊，我们会有协同效应。

StoneX says, Oh, my God, we'd have synergies.

另外三家公司的说法也是，天啊。

Three other firms say, Oh, my God.

它们会把价格抬高，以此来抵消这种协同效应，你明白吗？

And they kind of just bid the price up to kind of counteract that synergy, if that makes sense.

要回答这个问题，其实就是回答为什么这个行业正在整合。

So, to answer that, is to answer the question, why is the space consolidating?

为什么过去二十年里，美国的注册FCM数量减少了一半？

Why did the number of registered FCMs in The US get cut in half in the last twenty years?

一方面，你有受巴塞尔III或巴塞尔IV监管的银行，它们的资本要求很高，因此正在退出这个市场。

And on the one side, you have banks which are Basel III or Basel IV regulated, and they have high capital requirements, so they've been exiting.

非银行FCM没有这样的资本要求。

The non bank FCMs don't have that capital requirement.

Marex会指出，我们仍然希望保持投资级评级，并且仍然保留一定的资本。

Marex would point out like, hey, we still like to be investment grade, and we still keep capital on the side.

但无论如何，银行正在退出这个领域。

But anyway, banks are exiting this space.

在低端市场，由于越来越依赖技术，合规成本上升，技术投资需求也在增加。

On the lower end, because it's becoming more tech enabled, the compliance costs go up, the tech investment requirements go up.

所以当你提到有人能出价超过你时，我之前提过，有StoneX、Marex，还有Archie Daniel Nedlund，而且大家都清楚ADM正在出售。

So, when you're saying somebody else can outbid you, I mentioned them earlier, there's StoneX, there's Marex, and there's Archie Daniel Nedlund, and everybody knows that ADM is for sale.

我不清楚买家会是谁。

I wouldn't know who the buyer is.

如果估值足够有吸引力，可能会有私募股权介入，但它们不具备这些协同效应。

There might be private equity if the valuations become attractive enough, but they don't have those synergies.

所以，竞购这些公司并没有那么有竞争力。

So, it's just not as competitive to bid for those companies.

让我换种方式问你。

Let me ask you this differently.

如果这个业务这么好，你在StoneX的业绩中看到的是中高个位数的净资产收益率，Marex杠杆略高，但净资产收益率超过25%，那为什么ADM要出售？为什么没人争着抢购？毕竟你面对的是一个整合中的行业，最大的玩家被监管成本挤出，最小的玩家又被运营成本挤出。

If this business is so good, and you see it in StoneX results, mid to high teens ROEs, Marex a little bit more levered, but 25% plus ROEs, why is ADM for sale and why are people not jumping at the bit to grab that if you've got this consolidating business where you've got this really interesting dynamic where the largest players are actually regulatory priced out of this, and the smallest players are getting OpEx priced out of this.

那这不应该是各种买家的完美机会吗？

So why wouldn't that just be the nirvana for a variety of buyers?

具体来说，对于ADM，我并不够了解，无法评论他们的具体情况。

So specifically, ADM, I wouldn't know them well enough to comment on their specific situation.

RJ O'Brien刚刚被StoneX收购了。

RJ O'Brien just got acquired by StoneX.

我问过这两家公司，你们有没有参与竞购？

And I've asked both of the companies, did you bid for it or didn't you?

但得到的答案完全不一样，StoneX说他们没有参与有竞争力的竞标。

And you get completely different answers, where StoneX would say it wasn't a competitive bid.

他们之前和RJ O'Brien有关系，我记得那是一家家族企业。

They just had a relation with RJ O'Brien, which was a family owned business, if I'm not mistaken.

根据StoneX的说法，RJ O'Brien并不想被Marex收购。

RJ O'Brien wasn't interested in getting acquired by Marex, according to StoneX.

而Marex则指出，StoneX支付了六到九倍于协同效应后的收益，因为他们收购的不是中东的小经纪公司。

And Marex would point out that StoneX is paying six to nine times earnings to your post synergies, because they're not buying a small brokers in The Middle East.

他们收购的是为数不多的大型公司之一。

They're buying one of the last remaining big firms.

他们认为，既然可以用三到四倍的价格收购三家小型公司，为什么还要花六倍或九倍的价格买下这些大型平台呢？

And they're like, why would they pay six or nine times for one of those bigger platforms if you can buy three smaller ones for three or four times?

那里的思维方式是不同的。

It's a different mindset there.

他们还指出了一点，我们后面可能会谈到：Marex已经觉得自己的投资组合中利率风险足够高了。

And they point out also something we'll probably get to, Marex already felt like they had enough interest rate risk in their portfolio.

RJ O'Brien的加入会带来额外的利率风险。

RJ O'Brien comes with additional interest rate risk.

所以，两家公司本都可以收购它，但只有其中一家真正感兴趣，或者被收购方只愿意被其中一家收购。

So, both companies could have acquired it, but only one was really interested or the acquireee was only interested in getting acquired by one.

如果这有帮助的话，如果这回答了你的问题。

If that helps, if that answers your question.

我还想到一点，如果这个行业真的从四个有规模的可行参与者缩减为三个。

It also strikes me that if the industry has truly gone from four viable scaled players to three.

你的意思是，是的，StoneX收购了RJ并获得了协同效应的好处，但其他所有人也都受益于一个更理性、更寡头化的公司。

The you know, yes, StoneX buys RJ and gets the benefits of the synergies there, but everybody else kind of gets the benefit of a more rational, more oligopolistic firm.

我之前说要问一个问题，现在我想回头再问一下。

I said I was going to ask a question earlier, and I want to turn back to it.

黄金地段环境。

Goldilocks environment.

再说一遍，我只是想起StoneX。

Again, I just remember StoneX.

他们收购了G Cap，我记得是在2000年2月达成协议，然后是3月20日。

They buy G Cap, and I think they strike the deal at the February 2000 and then March 20.

然后到了2020年3月。

And then March 2020 happens.

我相信每个人都记得2020年3月发生了什么。

And I'm sure everybody remembers what happened March 2020.

GE资本因为从波动中受益，仅在2020年3月这一个月就赚回了整个市值。

And GE Cap, because they benefited from volatility, actually earned their entire market cap in the month of March 2020.

我对此记得很清楚。

I remember that very well.

Marex在几周前发布了他们的第四季度财报，考虑到伊朗局势以及油价从60涨到100、120，来回剧烈波动——一天涨10，又跌10，诸如此类，我原本以为他们在这种环境下简直赚翻了。

Marex comes their Q4 earnings call, which happened a couple weeks ago, I would have guessed, given everything that's happened in Iran with oil going from 60 to 100, 120, whatever you call it, multiple up down, up 10, down ten days and everything, I would have guessed they were absolutely minting money in this environment.

但他们在这次电话会议上却说，波动率处于一个恰到好处的水平。

But they kind of came on the call and said, hey, there's a Goldilocks level of volatility.

不能太剧烈，否则客户会崩溃，但我们也需要一定的市场波动。

Not too volatile where our customers are kind of like blowing their brains out, but we want some movement in stock.

他们表示，我们已经远远超出了这个恰到好处的波动水平。

And they said, we're way past the Goldilocks level.

这让我感到很意外。

That kind of surprised me.

所以我想问一下，为什么这么高的波动性对他们来说不是完全的天堂呢？

So I want to just ask, why is it this high volatility isn't just complete nirvana for them?

你怎么看这个问题？

And how do you think about that?

这让所有人都感到意外。

It surprised everyone.

这就是为什么股价下跌的原因。

That's why the share price is down.

他们确实说这不再是黄金水准，但我们的增长仍然符合往常水平，也就是说，尽管不是黄金水准，但他们实际上仍在实现至少10%到20%的增长。

They did say it's not Goldilocks, but we're still growing in line with our usual So, it's not Goldilocks, but we're still growing at least 10% to 20% is what they were effectively saying.

包括我在内的市场参与者仍在努力判断，什么样的波动水平才是合适的。

And the markets, including me, are still trying to figure out what is the right level of volatility.

认为当前波动水平过高的理由是，客户的流动性需求上升了。

The arguments why this amount of volatility would be too high is liquidity requirements on customers go up.

他们可能不是仅仅追加保证金，而是选择降低投资组合的风险，这意味着关闭一些交易，让操作轻松一点。

And instead of just posting more margin, maybe they just de risk their book, which means some closing trades and taking a bit easier.

此外，如果你是一家航空公司，原本打算对冲油价，也许你不会为未来两年进行对冲。

Plus, if you're an airline and you were waiting to hedge oil, maybe you're not going to hedge it for the next two years.

你可能会只选择非常短期的合约，因为你不想支付高价。

Maybe you'll take a very short contract just because you don't want to pay up.

这是他们的解释。

That was their explanation.

对我来说，这听起来有点像递延收入。

To me, that sounds a bit like deferred income.

比如，如果他选择只对冲接下来几个月，那他两三个月后还会回来再进行更多对冲。

Like, if he's choosing to only hedge for the next couple of months, he's going to come back in two or three months and hedge more.

从我的角度看，过去五年里，他们的净利润在市场中一直波动较大，而这反而对他们有利。

The way I would look at it, the last five years, in which, say, 7x their net income have been pretty volatile in the market, and that's that's benefited them.

衡量这一点的最佳方式是，在新冠疫情之前，全球期货交易量每年大约增长5%。

And the best way to look at that is prior to COVID, the amount of futures being traded globally used to go about 5% a year.

过去五年，这一数字实现了两位数增长，从5%上升到了12%。

And that has grown in the double digits the last five So that went from 5% to 12%.

我认为这得益于我们所经历的更高波动性，包括乌克兰局势、新冠疫情以及各种事件，也可能是因为他们在向我们交叉销售其他结构性产品方面做得更好了。

And I think that's a function of the higher volatility we've seen with Ukraine, with COVID, with everything that's happened, and maybe because they're doing a better job at cross selling us into other structured products.

所以，无论今天交易活动是否更多，这家公司的业务模式并不像流动交易员那样，需要在一年中的某一周或两周内赚取全部利润。

So whether there's more trading activity exactly today, it's not the kind of company that needs to make all of their earnings in one or two weeks of the year like you would see with flow traders or something like that.

我们仍能在数据中看到，一月和二月，CME和ICE的期货交易量同比增加了12%。

We can still see in the data, January and February, the amount of futures on CME and ICE were plus 12% year on year.

整体趋势良好。

It's trending well.

能源和金属领域的增长远高于这一水平。

And energy and metals are way higher than that.

不。

No.

我只是觉得这很令人惊讶。

I just it is surprising.

但你提到金属，这真是个精准的观察，因为他们说，嘿。

But you mentioned metals, that's a great call because they said, hey.

他们在一月份全部抛售了，你完全忘了那时白银在几周内翻了一倍。

They've all sold in January, you completely forget that's when silver is doubling inside of a couple weeks.

从那以后，你又经历了多次回调。

And then you've got since then, you've got the multiple pullbacks.

所以目前原油是焦点，因为战争让它备受关注，但今年头几个月，其他所有金属和商品都出现了大量波动。

So oil is the headliner right now because it's just top of mind with the war, but there was plenty of volatility in every other metal and commodity for the most part in the first few months of the year.

让我

Let me

最后再说一件事，股票回购。

go one last thing, buybacks.

过去几年，这一直是这家公司热门的话题。

Popular topic for the past few years, I would say with this company.

嘿，你什么时候考虑回购股票？

Hey, when do you think about buying back stock?

我认为他们基本上抵制了这一点。

I think they pretty much largely resisted it.

你看，当你经营一家ROE为25%的企业时，如果股价只相当于2.5倍，不回购股票可能是正确的选择，因为你的每一分市值都在预期持续的内生增长，而每一次回购都能创造巨大价值。

And look, when you're running a business with 25% ROEs, probably right not to buy back stock when it's trading at two and a half times because every drop of your market cap is anticipating continued organic growth, and every drop you can do creates a ton of value.

但你对回购和资本配置有什么看法？

But what do you think about just buybacks and capital allocation here?

所以，我想我还没在公开场合讨论过这个话题。

So, haven't spoken about this publicly, I think.

但作为一家在美国上市的外国实体，它们采用国际财务报告准则。

But are a foreign entity listed in The US reporting on the IFRS.

作为外国实体，它们进行股票回购需要股东批准。

As a foreign entity, they would need shareholder approval to do buybacks.

他们是英国的，对吧？

They're British, right?

是的。

Yeah.

为什么他们是英国的？

Why are they British?

这是并购的结果，还是仅仅因为历史原因？

Is that a function of mergers or just a function of history?

他们看起来应该是一家真正的英国公司。

It It's seems like they should be an actual British company.

他们跟你说话时会带着一口优雅的英式口音。

They will talk to you with a posh British accent.

他们的最大办公室位于伦敦某处。

Their biggest office is in London somewhere.

这是一家英国公司。

It's a British company.

他们曾试图在2022年于英国上市。

They tried to IPO in 2022 in The UK.

其中失败的两个原因之一是，谁愿意购买英国股票？

And one of the two reasons it failed was because who wants to buy British stocks?

没人愿意在英国交易。

Nobody wants to trade in The UK.

现在我们在美国是这样，但他们仍然需要获得股东批准才能进行股票回购。

Now So, we have this in The US, but they still have to require like, they need shareholder approval for buybacks.

他们之前的私募股权所有者不愿意给予这种批准。

Their previous PE owners didn't wanna give that.

我不知道为什么。

I don't know why.

他们之前的私募股权所有者已经不再掌管了。

Their previous PE owners are no longer in charge.

他们放弃了董事会席位。

They gave up their board seats.

到那时他们就已经套现离场了。

They will have sold out by then.

我非常有信心。

I'm very confident.

我可能错了。

I could be wrong.

我非常有信心，他们会在下次股东大会上申请股票回购授权，大概在五月，至少先获得这个授权。

I'm I'm quite confident that they will ask for a buyback authorization at the next AGM, probably May, to at least have it.

去年有一份做空报告。

There was a short seller report last year.

这正是我接下来想问的。

Was my next question.

我们的政府非常缺乏依据。

Our government is very much unfounded.

他们本希望已经拥有股票回购的权限。

They would have liked to have buyback in place.

当时他们唯一能做的就是让公司每个人自掏一百万美元来回购部分股份。

The only thing they could do at that time was go around and everybody in the company had to chip in $1,000,000 to buy back some shares.

他们本想进行股票回购，但当时没有获得授权，我认为五月之后就会有了。

And they would have liked to do buybacks, but they didn't have the authorization, and I think they will have after May.

我们来谈谈那份做空报告。

Let's talk about the short slide report.

这份报告是在2025年10月初发布的。

So, that comes out in early October twenty twenty five.

是NINCI吗？

It is NINCI?

我

I

我觉得你发音不对。

don't think that's how you pronounce it.

我从来没听说过他们。

I've never heard of them.

NINCI Research，他们在十月发布报告。

NINCI Research, they come out in October.

我们可以谈谈公司的回应以及其他相关内容。

And we can talk about the company's response and everything.

但这份报告相当吓人。

But piece is pretty scary.

它提到，未合并的实体有很多关联方交易正在被追踪。

It says, hey, unconsolidated entities, lots of related party dealings that are getting tracked.

如果我没记错的话，它还提到审计范围缩小是其中一个因素。

It mentions reduced scope from the auditor is one of the things if I remember correctly.

交易方面，它包含了很多内容。

Trades, it's got a lot of stuff.

我们先谈谈这份简短报告，然后再讨论公司的回应。

Let's just talk about the short report upfront and we can also talk the company's response.

是的，当然。

Yeah, sure.

正如你所说，这是一个艰难的行业。

Like you said, it's a difficult business.

因此，很容易做出一份看起来吓人、让人恐慌而抛售头寸的报告。

So, it's quite easy to make a report that looks scary and scares people out of their position.

我第一个问题是，我担心黑箱操作。

My first question was, I worry about black box.

当你有黑箱时，不管对错，都非常容易成为空头报告的目标。

And when you have black box, rightly or wrongly, it is very exposed to a short seller report.

希望这份报告是正面的。

Now, hopefully, it's a good one.

但黑箱和空头报告对我来说简直是天作之合。

But black boxes, short seller reports match me in heaven.

我花了超过一天的时间才真正弄明白。

It took me more than a day to actually figure it out.

报告有40页，指出了各种不一致之处。

It was like 40 pages, which pointed out various inconsistencies.

其中一些让我很惊讶，有人一定深入调查了这家公司才能发现这些。

Some of them, I was surprised, like someone must have dug pretty well into a company to find those.

在这些不一致之处中，我认为有两个论点，如果它们成立，我会很担心。

Out of those two inconsistencies, I would say there were two arguments that if they had been correct, I'd be worried.

最重要的是，它指出了两个未合并的实体——卢森堡的SICAPs，但就像这里一样，你有一个VAE，但这是一个用于市场做市的基金结构。

The most important there was it would point at two unconsolidated entities, Luxembourg, SICAPs, but that's like here, you would have a VAE, but it's like a fund structure through which they can do their market making.

也许其中一个被用于结构性产品的发行。

Maybe one of them was used for for the issuance of structured products.

它还指出，审计师设计的这些实体，其2022年的财务报表直到2023年才完成审计，像这样的不一致本不该存在。

And it would point out like, hey, the auditor designs, they were they were entities, and the 2022 financials weren't audited until the 2023, like inconsistencies that shouldn't exist.

但我认为主要的指控是，他们声称这些实体未合并，Marex与它们进行交易，并且Marex通过自己的实体虚增利润。

But I think the main allegation there was they would claim that they were unconsolidated, that Marex was trading with them, and that Marex was booking fake profits with their own entities.

这相当严重。

And that was pretty bad.

管理层在电话会议中对此作出了回应。

Management addressed that during the call.

他们首先表示，我们已经将这些实体纳入合并报表。

And the first thing they said is, we consolidate those we consolidate those entities.

如果你将它们合并，整个指控就站不住脚了。

If you consolidate them, the entire argument is off the table.

它根本不存在。

It doesn't exist.

你仍然希望他们不要花十八个月才审计一个实体。

You'd still prefer that they didn't take eighteen months to to audit an entity.

但如果你了解这些实体的背景，就会发现这就像一场混乱。

But then if you learn the background of those entities, it it it's a roller.

它们进行了大量收购。

Like, they've they've done a lot of acquisitions.

如果你进行了大量收购，会发生什么？

And what happens if you do a lot of acquisitions?

你最终会拥有数百家法律实体。

You end up with, I don't know, hundreds of legal entities.

有些实体需要花时间才能处置和合并。

And some of them take time to to get rid of, to consolidate.

它们实际上并没有使用这些实体。

They aren't actually using the entity.

我们讨论的是两个拥有200万美元权益但并未使用的基金。

We're we're talking about two funds with 2,000,000 US dollar in in equity that they're not using.

他们告诉我，这样做只是为了消除混乱。

They they told me they're just to get the confusion done.

它们正在关闭的过程中，而我还没听说过这件事。

They are in the process of shutting down, and I haven't heard about that.

所以我不确定它们是否还存在。

So I'm not sure whether they still exist or not.

总之，它们已经被完全合并了，因此没有虚增利润。

Bottom line is they were fully consolidated, so there's no fake profits being booked.

这才是这里唯一重要的事情。

That's the only thing that matters here.

我认为另一个说法是，有人声称根本没有真正的自由现金流。

I think the other one was there were claims like, hey, there's not any real free cash flow.

我建议任何人直接打开财务报表，看看自由现金流报表。

I'd encourage anybody to just open financial statements yourself, look at the free cash flow statements.

他们每年只报告两次，因为这是一家英国公司，另一家美国公司。

They only report that twice a year because it's a British company, another US company.

也许他们应该每季度都公布自由现金流报表。

Maybe they should give that free cash flow statement every quarter.

但确实存在自由现金流。

But there definitely is free cash flow.

我们讨论的是一家资产负债表复杂的金融机构。

We're talking about a financial with a complicated balance sheet.

所以，有时对冲操作会成为顺风，有时则成为逆风。

So, sometimes there are hedges working as a tailwind, sometimes as a headwind.

在那份短期报告之前的两年里，对冲操作一直是自由现金流的顺风。

In the two years prior to that short report, it had been a tailwind for free cash flow.

但在过去六个月里，它变成了逆风。

But hey, in the last six months, it's a headwind.

而且仍然有充足的收益。

And there are still plenty of earnings.

如果我没记错的话，关于自由现金流，另一件令人担忧的事情是，我正试图找到那个具体的表格，他们说他们把融资记入了现金流。

If I remember correctly, another thing that was scary on the free cash flow, I'm trying to find the specific table, what they said, hey, they're booking financing.

在你的自由现金流报表中，任何熟悉报表的人都知道，你有经营活动现金流、投资活动现金流和融资活动现金流。

On your free cash flow statement, anyone who's familiar with one, you have CFO cash flow from operations, cash flow from investing, cash flow from financing.

他们说，他们把融资活动现金流错误地记入了经营活动现金流。

They were saying, hey, they're booking cash flow from financing as a cash flow from operations.

这确实破坏了报表的逻辑。

And that kind of breaks the thing.

我认为该公司明确表示，因为我们是一家金融机构，这种情况是正常的。

And I think the company came out pretty strongly and said, hey, because we are a finance firm, this is typical.

顺便说一句，如果你阅读第一号附注，里面已经明确分列出来了。

And by the way, if you read footnote number one, it is very clearly broken out.

所以，你可以自行做出判断。

So, can make your own assumptions.

我们并不是想掩盖这个问题。

It's not like we're trying to sweep this under the rug.

那里还有几个令人担忧的地方。

There were a few other scary ones there.

他们收购了一家英国实体，做空者称，他们没有披露监管机构即将开出的罚款。

And there was a British entity that they acquired where the short sellers said, hey, they didn't report a looming fine from the regulator.

你可以纠正我，如果你记得的话，也可以讲讲这个故事，但我记得公司说，是的，我们没有披露，因为我们将其结构化为资产收购，这样我们就没买下那个法律实体，因此我们清楚存在这笔罚款。

And I believe you can correct me if I'm wrong or you can tell the story if you remember it, but I believe the company said, yeah, we didn't report it because we structured it as an asset acquisition so that we didn't buy that legal entity so that we didn't We knew there was the fine.

卖方知道这笔罚款的存在。

The seller knew there was the fine.

我们把这项负债留给了卖方。

We left that liability with the seller.

所以这涉及一个范围问题。

So there was a scope question.

他们说，德勤正在缩小审计范围。

They said, hey, Deloitte's pulling back their scope.

公司回应说，是的，这是因为安永正在接管审计范围。

And the company came and said, yeah, that's because E and Y is taking over the scope.

所以公司还处理了一些其他令人担忧的问题。

So there were some other scary things that the company, think, addressed well.

我先说到这里。

I'll pause there.

做空报告中还有其他什么内容是你想提到的吗？

Was there anything else in the short report or anything that you wanted to mention?

你已经自己回答了第一个问题。

You answered your own question on that first point.

总的来说，我喜欢他们对此的回应，我认为这是一家类似于内部经纪商的公司，得益于成为上市公司。

I think, in general, what I liked about their response, I think this is the kind of company similar to inside the brokers that has benefited from being public.

作为主经纪商，他们在市场上获得的品牌知名度和透明度在过去两年中帮助了他们。

The amount of name recognition and transparency that gives them in the market as a prime broker has helped them in the last two years.

他们指出，我们从上市中获益。

And they point out, well, we benefit from being public.

显然，这也有一些负面影响，比如你不得不应对这样的做空报告。

And clearly, there's also some negatives because you get short reports like this that you have to do.

但最终，每个人都有权表达自己的想法。

But in the end, everybody's allowed to say what they want to say.

作为金融市场的参与者，我个人觉得每个人都有权表达自己的想法。

Personally, as a financial market participant, I feel like everybody's allowed to say what they want to say.

但如果你想要提出如此复杂的论点，为什么不等到交易时间结束后再说，而不是在开盘后五分钟就讲？

But if you want to make such complicated arguments, why don't you do it after hours and not five minutes after the market opens?

我不认识这个人。

I don't know this person.

我不确定这件事是否真的发生过。

I'm not sure that even happened.

但我现在经常看到这种情况。

But I just see it so much nowadays.

在我有时间阅读并理解这份报告之前，他们通常已经部分建仓了。

Before I've had time to read and understand the report, I think most of the time, they've already covered part of their position.

这是我个人正在应对的挫败感。

That's a personal frustration I'm dealing with.

但归根结底，让他们说想说的话吧。

But at the end of the day, let them say what they want to say.

这让我们保持敏锐。

And it keeps us sharp.

我学到了一些关于这家公司的新信息，而公司在某些方面本可以更好地沟通。

I learned a couple of new things about the company, and the company needed to communicate a bit better on certain things.

不，听我说，关于空头交易，我觉得你不是唯一一个指出时机问题的人。

No, look, on the short seller trading, I don't think you're the only one to point out the timing and everything.

但说到公司的回应，当我做这个播客时，心想：天啊，贝莱德金融发布了空头报告。

But on the company response, when I was trying to do this podcast, was like, oh, no, BlackRock Financial with a short report.

这可能会让人害怕。

This could be scary.

但我真正欣赏的是，公司是如何回应的，对吧？

But the thing I really liked was I liked how the company responded, right?

因为空头报告是在财报发布前几天公布的。

Because the short report gets published a couple of days before earnings.

所以公司处于禁售期。

So the company is a blackout period.

他们只是发布了一条声明，说：嘿，我们认为这具有误导性。

They just publish a thing that says, hey, we think this is misleading.

我们会就此进行说明。

We'll talk about it.

然后他们召开了收益电话会议。

Then they do the earnings call.

在收益电话会议上，他们说：我们尊重空头投资者。

On the earnings call, they say, look, we respect short sellers.

我们只会反驳你提到的两个最令人担忧的点。

We're just going to rebut the two scariest points as you started talking.

第二天，公司所有高层都在公开市场上买入了股票。

And then the next day, all the top brass buy shares on the open markets.

你希望看到更多吗？

Would you like to see more?

当然。

Sure.

但每个人都买股票。

But everybody buys shares.

所以我觉得这是个完美的回应。

So I thought it was an ideal response.

他们没有对空头大喊大叫。

They didn't yell and cry about short sellers.

他们只是解决了最紧迫的问题。

They just addressed the most pressing things.

而且你看，作为一家融资公司，这个问题确实会被问到，对吧？

And look, as a financing firm, this question gets asked, right?

金融公司被做空时之所以这么可怕，一是因为它们是黑箱操作。

The reason financial firms are so scary when they get short is A, they're black box.

但第二，客户会说，是的，我们的资金都在我们的账户里。

But B, customers say, yeah, we have our prime in our docks.

但如果我们的主账户有1%的可能出问题，我们就会直接转移，因为我们不能在这里被清零。

But if there's a 1% chance our prime is going under, we're just going to move because we're not going to get zeroed up here.

所以，你担心的是客户风险。

So, you worry about the customer risk.

他们出来表示，我们与其他客户进行了开放的沟通。

They came out and said, look, we had open conversations with other customers.

顺便说一下，如果我没记错的话，你说我们有一位全球对冲基金决定把更多业务转给我们。

And for what it's worth, if I remember correctly, you say we've got a global hedge fund who's decided to move more business to us.

那我就先说到这里，如果还有其他内容的话。

So, I'll pause there if there's anything else.

我觉得我们已经讨论过了。

I think we discussed it.

他们处理得不错。

They handled it well.

这份做空报告今后完全无关紧要。

There's zero relevance of the short report going forward.

这不过是正常的业务运营，收益还在增长。

It's just business as usual and growing earnings.

对于那些复杂的黑箱金融产品，你真正想做的是在现实中验证这家企业是否真实存在，以及它的业务增长是否真的如其所述。

And what you want to do with complicated black box financials, you want to sort of verify in real life that the business really exists, and that they're really flowing the way they are growing.

最后，我大约两年前半前搬到美国时成立了我的对冲基金，当时Marex TD Cowen刚刚被Marex收购不到一个月，他们是第一个主动联系我的公司，问我：‘你已经选好主经纪商了吗？’

Finally, I started my hedge fund about two and a half years ago when I moved to The US and Marex TD Cowen, which was only just been acquired by Marex a month earlier, they were the first one to reach out to me like, Hey, have you already picked a prime broker?

很多公司都是在已经太晚了之后才开始联系我。

A lot of firms started reaching out when it was already too late.

没人会在基金成立五个月后才去选主经纪商。

Nobody's going to pick a prime broker five months after launching upfront.

如果你身处金融市场，你就能亲眼看到，我知道有一些人正在把他们的客户经纪业务转到Marex。

You can see in real life, if you're in the financial market, I know some people who are moving their client brokers business to Marex.

他们非常欣赏Marex提供的互换额度。

They really like the swap lines that they offer.

我看到有人正在把业务转移到那里。

I see people moving their business there.

所以你可以实际验证这家企业确实存在。

So you can sort of verify in real life business exists.

它们正在增长。

They're growing it.

他们有一支非常积极的销售团队，正在接触大量客户。

They have a very motivated Salesforce that is reaching out to a lot of people.

我在你发给我做准备的笔记中看到了那个例子，但我不想提起一个轶事。

I saw that example in your notes that you sent me to prep, but I didn't want to bring out an anecdote.

但我认为那真是个很有趣的轶事。

But I thought that was a really cool anecdote.

有时候，正是这些细微的个人见解让事情变得不同。

And sometimes it's that little personal insight that makes things.

让我用这个来收尾。

Let me end with this.

我已多次提到，看看吧，交易价格是账面价值的2.5到3倍，净资产收益率为25%。

I've said a few times, look, hey, trades at two and a half to three times book, 25% ROE.

你说，我觉得这应该以20倍市盈率交易，但现在它的市盈率只有七到八倍。

You say, I think this should trade for twenty twenty times EPS, and it's kind of trading at seven or eight.

你如何为这家公司估值？

How do you value this company?

你怎么看待它的价值？

How do you think about the value?

因为另一种说法是，他们说可以实现10%的有机增长加上10%的并购增长。

Because the other answer is, they say we can do 10% organic plus 10% inorganic.

如果你能长期做到这一点，别提20倍市盈率了，现在它就应该被估值为下一个伯克希尔·哈撒韦。

If you can do that for a long time, forget 20 xEBAI, right now it should be valued like the next Berkshire Hathaway.

那么，你如何看待这里的公允价值？

So how do you think about the fair value here?

即使我觉得它值20倍市盈率，也不意味着我真能以这个价格买到。

Just because I think it's worth 20 times fee doesn't mean I'm ever going to get it.

我已经接受了这一点。

I've accepted that.

你觉得它的估值更高了吗？

Do think it's got higher.

它们的净资产收益率是30%，StoneX现在是20%。

They do 30% ROE, StoneX does now 20%.

也许杠杆率略高一点。

Maybe with slightly more leverage.

它至少值StoneX的估值倍数吗？

Does it deserve at least a StoneX multiple?

我觉得是的。

I think so.

我觉得它的交易倍数最终会在12到15倍之间，可能不是在未来几个月内。

I think it will end up trading somewhere between twelve and fifteen times, maybe not in the next couple of months.

但我投资不是为了估值倍数的扩大。

But I'm not in it for the multiple expansion.

那是个不错的额外收益。

That's a nice bonus.

如果他们能继续以接近以往的速度增长盈利，比如他们指引的是10%到20%，但他们实际一直做到30%以上。

If they do continue to grow earnings anywhere close to the rates they've been going, like, yeah, they're guiding for 10% to 20%, but they've been doing 30% plus.

如果任何公司能以这样的速度增长盈利，即使没有估值倍数的提升，你也能获得不错的回报。

If anybody grows earnings at that rate, you'll make a good return without a multiple expansion.

如果某一天你的估值从7倍涨到14倍，这会显著提升你的内部收益率，但真正重要的是盈利增长。

And if at some point you go from seven times to 14 times, that push your IRR quite a bit, but it's the earnings growth that matters more.

当你有盈利增长的顺风时，确实很不错，对吧？

It is nice when you've got that earnings growth tailwind, right?

因为你可以一直说，每年增长20%，再增长20%。

Because you can always just say, hey, every year, 20% more, 20% more.

我最后问你一个问题。

I ask you one last question.

如果我暂时忽略这里黑箱式的风险——当然这很吓人——但假如我把它搁置一边，还有什么最让你夜不能寐地担心这个业务？

This is if I put aside the black box kind of risk here, which obviously is scary, but if I put that aside, what would keep you up the most at night about this business?

利率。

Interest rates.

他们会指出其敏感性非常低。

They would point to a very low sensitivity.

比如，如果联邦基金利率下降一个百分点，他们的收益会减少约5%。

Like, if the Fed funds rate drops by one percentage point, they would lose about 5% of their earnings.

而之所以这么低，是因为客户会存入保证金，而他们实际上能从这些保证金中赚取联邦基金利率的收益。

And the reason that that's quite low is so customers post margin, and they earn Fed funds rate on that effectively.

但他们与客户共享这部分收益。

But they share that.

类似于盈透证券，它只收取50个基点。

Similar to Interactive Brokers, that just takes 50 basis points.

对于60%的客户，他们平均收取150个基点，具体取决于客户规模。

For 60% of the clients, they take, like, 150 basis points on average, depending on the size of the client.

而对于40%的客户，他们则全额收取。

And 40% of the customer, they take all of it themselves.

因此，对于60%的客户来说，只要联邦基金利率不低于1.5%，即使下降1%也无关紧要。

And so with a 60% of the customer, it doesn't matter if the Fed funds rate drops by 1% until we go below 1.5%.

他们会指出，我们并不担心，因为我们有对冲策略。

They will point out, we're not worried because we've got that hedge.

他们拥有大约两年半期限的隔离式对冲工具。

They've got insular slate hedges about a two and a half year basis.

但在美联储利率降至0%的情况下，这些对冲工具在两年半后到期，将对收益造成相当大的影响。

But in a situation where the Fed funds rate goes to 0%, and the hedges roll off two and a half years later, that's a decent chunk out of earnings.

尽管这是我主要的担忧，但我仍然持有投资，原因是他们成功地以相当快的速度增长了这些余额。

The reason that even though that's my main concern, and I'm still invested, is they've managed to grow those balances at a pretty high rate.

两年前，他们的客户余额大约是130亿、120亿、130亿、140亿美元。

Two years ago, think they had like 13,000,000,000, 12,000,000,000, 13,000,000,000, 14,000,000,000 of client balances.

现在他们已经达到了200亿美元。

They're now at 20,000,000,000.

所以，增长了大约50%。

So, like 50% growth.

他们持续保持这种增长，从而抵消了相当一部分影响。

They continue that growth that offsets quite a bit.

另一点是我们之前提到的，这是一个整合的市场。

The other thing is, it's a consolidated market that we've spoken about.

当利率上升时，客户主动找他们说：你们从我们的资金余额中赚了这么多钱，能不能分一点给我们？

When interest rates went up, customers approached them and said, Hey, you're making so much money on our balances, maybe you share a little.

StoneX 和 Marex 都表示，如果联邦基金利率降至 1.5% 以下，他们完全可以回头对客户说：我们在利率上升时已经多给了你们不少钱。

Both StoneX and Marex are saying that they're quite confident that if the Fed funds rate drops below 1.5%, they can actually go back to the client and say, Hey, we gave you more money on the way up.

现在利率在下降。

Now we're going down.

你们能不能在我们卖给你们的互换交易上，稍微提高一点点差？

How about you start paying a slightly higher spread on the swap that we're selling you?

因此，他们很可能通过佣金收入弥补相当一部分损失。

So, they can probably compensate quite a bit through commissions.

而在客户经纪业务中，许多零售经纪商也面临相同的利率动态。

And client brokers business, you've got the same interest rate dynamic with a lot of the retail brokers.

但在那里，他们的论点总是：如果利率上升，我们的交易量就会增加。

But there, the argument is always if interest rates go up, we start trading more.

我认为同样的论点对客户经纪业务也适用，但对清算业务则不那么适用。

I think that same argument goes a little bit for the client brokers business, less so for the clearing.

所以，我们会通过交易量和定价来弥补。

So, we'll make it up on volume and on pricing.

但联邦基金利率低于1.5%将是不利的。

But Fed funds rate under 1.5% would be negative.

我有个好消息要告诉你。

Well, I have good news for you.

一个月前，你可能对联邦基金利率有些担忧。

A month ago, you might have had some worry about Fed funds rate.

但请注意，我们录制这段对话是在3月23日，过去几周联邦基金利率的前景已经发生了显著变化。

But don't think, again, we are recording this on March 23, but the Fed funds outlook has changed pretty materially in the past couple of weeks.

关于这个风险，我有个好消息要告诉你。

I have good news for you on that risk.

不，而且我觉得年轻时的我会说联邦基金利率风险，然后想，嗯，人们会看透这一点。

No, and look, I think the younger me would have said the Fed funds risk and been like, well, look, people are going look through this.

人们会恢复正常。

People are going to normalize.

但更成熟的我会说，我清楚地意识到，盈透证券和StoneX除了其他因素外，真正开始腾飞是在2022年中后期。当时IBKR曾长期反对系统，说：‘利率为零。’

But the older me says, it's not lost to me that Interactive Brokers and StoneX, there were a lot of other things, but they really start taking off in mid to late twenty twenty two How long did IBKR rail against the system and say, hey, interest rates are zero.

我们从这些巨大的利差中一无所获。

We're making nothing on these huge margins.

一旦利率开始上升，IBKR的股价就在过去三四年里涨了四倍。

As soon as interest rates start ticking up, IBKR is like a 4X over three or four years since then.

我可能对这一点有些高估了，但IBKR确实有效，StoneX也有效。

I might be a little bit high on that, but IBKR works, StoneX works.

我并没有忽视利率上升这一事实，它为所有这些业务带来了巨大的顺风。

It's not loss on me, interest rates going higher, just a huge tailwind for all these things.

而正是在那时，市场才真正开始奖励它们。

And that's when the market really starts rewarding them.

所以，我认为市场本身也提供了一个实证，如果这说得通的话。

So, I think we've also got a proof point in the market, if that makes sense.

是的

Yeah.

罗德里克，这真是太好了。

Roderick, this has been great.

还有什么你想聊的吗？无论是Marex还是瑞典小盘股？不，我们不会聊瑞典小盘股欺诈的事。

Anything else you want to talk about, whether it's Marex or Swedish small No, we're not going to talk about Swedish small cap frauds.

我得不断提醒自己，但还有没有什么其他话题是我们应该聊聊的？

I have to keep reminding myself, but anything else we should be chatting about?

我觉得我们已经把这个公司讲得很透彻了。

I think we covered this company quite well.

这正是我想听到的。

That's what I like to hear.

好吧，我真的非常享受你来做客。

Well, look, I've really enjoyed having you on.

而且，通过我们的Twitter私信和其他渠道，我一直非常尊重你所做的所有工作和努力。

And again, I've just through our Twitter DMs and stuff, I've had a a lot of respect for all the work and everything you've done.

非常感谢你来参加，我们以后一定要再邀请你回来。

So appreciate you coming on, and we'll we'll have to have you back on sometime soon.

谢谢。

Thanks.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

快速声明一下。

A quick disclaimer.

本播客中的任何内容都不应被视为投资建议。

Nothing on this podcast should be considered investment advice.

嘉宾或主持人可能持有本播客中提到的任何股票。

Guests or the hosts may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast.

请自行研究并咨询财务顾问。

Please do your own work and consult a financial adviser.

谢谢。

Thanks.