本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
你好。
Hi.
我是亚历克斯·戈德马克。
It's Alex Goldmark here.
感谢所有预购我们书籍的人。
Thank you to everybody who preordered our book.
你们正在帮助我们取得成功。
You are helping make this a success.
随书附赠的海报很快就会寄出。
The poster that should come with it will ship soon.
它本不该和书一起寄出，我们本该更清楚地说明这一点。
It was not supposed to ship with the book, and we should have been clearer about that.
如果你在我们的书籍网站上填写了表格，谢谢。
If you filled out the form on our book website, thank you.
你应该已经收到了确认邮件。
You should have gotten a confirmation email.
但如果你没有完成这一步，或者没有收到邮件，现在仍然可以获取海报。
But if you didn't do that or you didn't get an email, there is still time to get the poster.
请给我们发邮件，我们会发送一个链接给你，让你填写表格来领取海报。
Send us an email, and we will send you a link to fill out the form to get the poster.
你需要提供在4月6日之前购买本书的凭证，以及美国境内的收件地址。
You will need to have proof of purchase that you bought it before April 6 and an address in The United States.
请发送邮件至 planetmoney@npr.org。
Email us at planetmoney@npr.org.
planetmoney@npr.org。
Planetmoney@npr.org.
邮件主题请注明“poster”，并在4月17日之前完成操作。
Put poster in the subject line, and do that before April 17.
感谢您的耐心，也非常感谢您支持这个大型图书项目。
Thank you for your patience, and thank you very much for supporting this big book project.
这是来自NPR的Planet Money。
This is Planet Money from NPR.
在我大半生里，每当我走进当地的书店，从未多想过当天陈列的那些书究竟是如何被选中摆上架的。
For most of my life, whenever I walked into my local bookstore, I never gave much of a thought to how that day's particular assortment of books actually managed to make it there.
我从未想过，每本摆在架上的新书背后，可能有成千上万本书被拒之门外，无人问津。
I didn't suspect for a moment that for every new book on display, there might be literally thousands of others that had been passed over and left out in the cold.
直到今年一月的一个早晨。
Until one morning this January.
那天，我走进了位于肯塔基州路易斯维尔的一家小型独立书店——卡迈克尔书店。
That's when I found myself walking into a small independent bookstore called Carmichael's in Louisville, Kentucky.
我去找一位名叫费舍尔·纳什的书店店员。
I was there to meet a bookseller named Fisher Nash.
那就是我。
That is me.
我是书店店员费舍尔。
I am Fisher the bookseller.
费舍尔穿着一身绿色装扮迎接我。
Fisher greets me wearing an all green getup.
绿色连体衣、袜子、鞋子。
Green jumpsuit, socks, shoes.
我今天穿绿色是为了向《Planet Money》致敬。
I wore green today in honor of Planet Money.
我们太喜欢了。
We love that.
Fisher 生活在书里，呼吸着书。
Fisher lives and breathes books.
如果你是小说中的人物，你会怎么描述自己？
If you were a character in a novel, how would you describe yourself?
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
这个问题真难。
That's a really hard question.
我可能会说，我是个古怪的书商，我的个性主要由书籍构成。
I would probably say I am a quirky bookseller whose personality is mainly books.
你对《电子情书》有什么看法？
How do you feel about You've Got Mail?
哦，我超爱《电子情书》，就是那部九十年代梅格·瑞恩主演的电影。
Oh, I love You've Got Mail, the the Meg Ryan movie from the nineties.
这部电影太棒了。
It's so good.
这是我最爱的书店题材电影。
It's my favorite bookstore movie.
在卡迈克尔书店的工作中，费舍尔承担着出版生态系统中最重要的职责之一。
And in their job at Carmichael's, Fisher holds one of the greatest responsibilities in the whole publishing ecosystem.
是谁决定哪些书会上架到书店？
Who decides what books end up in bookstores?
就是我。
That is me.
主要就是我。
It is primarily me.
我是图书采购员。
I am the book buyer.
图书采购员是全国几乎所有书店或连锁书店中的一个特定职位。
The book buyer is a specific role at basically every bookstore or book chain around the country.
在卡迈克尔书店，费舍尔就是图书采购员。
At Carmichael's bookstore, Fisher is the book buyer.
因此，我负责与出版商的销售代表会面，决定我们要引进哪些新书、进多少本，以及把它们放在哪里。
So I am the one who meets with sales reps from publishers, and I'm the one who decides which new books we're gonna bring in, how many, and where they will go.
像费舍尔这样的图书采购员，将决定《Planet Money》这本书的商业命运。
Book buyers like Fisher will be deciding the commercial fate of the Planet Money book.
因此，我想了解这些决策究竟是如何做出的。
And so I wanted to understand how these decisions actually get made.
费舍尔解释说，经营一家独立书店是一场薄利经营的游戏。
Now, running an independent bookstore, Fisher explains, is a game of thin margins.
如果订购的畅销新书数量太少，你就等于剥夺了书店急需的经济命脉。
Order too few copies of a popular new book, and you'll be depriving your store of much needed financial lifeblood.
订太多的话，就会占用宝贵的货架空间，而这些空间本可以用来摆放利润更高的书籍。
Order too many, and you'll be clogging up coveted shelf space that could be holding more lucrative titles.
新书，也就是我引进的书，通常是风险更大的选择。
Newer titles, which are the ones that I bring in, are typically the riskier bets.
所以你在这里就像是个冒险家。
So you're kind of the risk taker around here.
是的，很遗憾。
I am, sadly.
不过，我觉得我在现实生活中并不是个爱冒险的人。
I don't think I'm a risk taker in my real life, though.
费舍尔考虑过的每一本书，都必须通过一系列考验，就像一个存在性的决策树，才能在卡迈克尔书店占有一席之地。
Every book that Fisher does consider taking a bet on has to make it through a series of hurdles, a kind of existential decision tree, before they can land a place in Carmichael's bookstore.
费舍尔首先会问的问题是：是否应该购买任何数量的这本书？
The first question Fisher asks, should they buy any copies of the book at all?
是的。
Yeah.
我们不会上架每一本新书，因为我们没有足够的空间。
We are not stocking every book that comes out because we don't have the space.
这真的就像
It really is like
一个你一直在解决的房地产拼图。
a real estate puzzle that you're solving all the time.
没错。
Absolutely.
因为空间是
Because space is at
一种
a
稀缺资源。
premium.
这是一家小店，所以我们必须仔细规划每样东西的摆放位置。
It's a small store, so we really have to figure out where things are gonna go.
我们还有地方放得下所有这些东西吗？
And do we even have space for all of these things?
环顾这家店，这种稀缺问题一目了然。
Looking around the store, this scarcity issue is clear.
整个店铺大约1800平方英尺，分成两个房间，这意味着费舍尔必须做出一些艰难的决定。
The whole place is around 1,800 square feet divided into two rooms, which means Fisher's gotta make some tough calls.
对于那些入选的书籍
For those that do make the cut
第二个问题是，我要进多少本？
The second question is, how many am I gonna bring in?
我要不要只进一本，因为让它出现在货架上很重要，但它未必会畅销？
Am I gonna bring in one because it's important to be represented on the shelf, but it's not necessarily going to fly off the shelf.
还是费舍尔应该进两本，因为增加数量实际上能让书籍更容易被路过顾客注意到？
Or should Fisher order two copies knowing that doubling down can actually make a book more visible to passing customers?
所以当你看书脊时，你会发现当同一本书有两本时，它会更加显眼。
So you'll notice when you look at the spines, you can see it stands out when there's two copies of something.
人们更可能会想，哦，他们这里有好几本那个。
People are more likely to be like, oh, they've got more copies of that.
我不确定那是什么。
I wonder what that is.
如果费舍尔想加大赌注，下一个更大的投入就是一次性买四本。
If Fisher wants to up the ante, the next biggest bet would be to buy a total of four copies.
这是他们能获得展示台资格所需的最少数量。
That is the minimum number they need to qualify for the display table.
这张桌子就在商店正中央，只有极少数新书能被堆叠多本，顶部还竖着一本，标题醒目地展示给每一位顾客。
This is a table right in the center of the store where a very lucky selection of new books are stacked several copies high with a single upright copy on top proclaiming its title to all who would read it.
所以这相当于店里最显眼的广告位或最佳陈列位置吗？
So this is sort of like the most prominent billboard or placement in the store?
是的。
Yes.
这简直就是圣杯。
This is like the holy grail.
这就是圣杯。
It is the holy grail.
登上展示台。
Getting on the display table.
或者至少走在通往最神圣圣杯的路上。
Or at least on the path towards the holiest grail of all.
是的。
Yes.
那就是畅销书榜单。
Which would be the best seller list.
是我们身后那个书架吗？
Is that the shelf right behind us?
那就是你身后那个书架。
It is the shelf right behind you.
费舍尔和我转过身，就在我们面前，仿佛一座献给至高无上图书市场的木制神龛，赫然陈列着一本真实的畅销书榜单书架。
Fisher and I turned around, and right there in front of us, like a wooden shrine to the almighty book market, was a real physical encapsulation of the bestseller list in one bookshelf.
在顶部，一个节日横幅上写着：畅销书，八折优惠。
At the top, a little festive banner proclaims, bestsellers, 20% off.
这个书架正是我今天特意在星期天来到卡迈克尔书店的主要原因，为的是见证图书界最神圣的仪式之一。
And this shelf was one of the big reasons I'd come to Carmichael's on this very day, a Sunday, to witness one of the most hallowed rituals in the world of books.
那就是畅销书榜单的更新。
And that is the changing of the bestsellers.
每个星期天，我们都会查看我们的两张榜单：美国独立书店协会的独立畅销书榜和《纽约时报》畅销书榜。
Every Sunday, we look at our two lists, our ABA indie bestsellers and our New York Times bestsellers.
我们将所有跌出榜单、不再属于畅销书的书籍移走，放回原位。
And we remove anything that has fallen off those lists that is no longer a bestseller.
然后我们查看有哪些新书进入了榜单，把它们从原来的书架上取下，添加到畅销书专区。
We take it off, we put it back on the shelf, and then we see anything that has joined the list, and we need to pull it off of its appropriate shelf and add it to the best seller list.
所以，这正是决定成败的时刻。
So this is, like, the moment where fortunes are won or lost.
没错。
Exactly.
费舍尔有条不紊地浏览了这两份畅销书榜单。
Fisher makes their way methodically through both bestseller lists.
这周，几乎所有的上期畅销书都成功保持了原有位置。
This week, almost all of the previous bestsellers managed to maintain their position.
这个榜单显然非常稳定。
The list can apparently be very sticky.
不过，还是有一本新书被添加到了书架上。
Though one new book does get added to the shelf.
费舍尔说，畅销书榜单只是反映了过去一周全国读者的集体偏好，但他们注意到，每周出现在榜单上的书籍类型似乎有一定的规律。
Fisher says the bestseller list simply reveals the nation's collective preferences over the past week, but they say they have noticed a pattern to the kinds of books that they'll see on the list in any given week.
通常会有一本名人回忆录、一本政治内幕书、一本自助畅销书。
There's usually a celebrity memoir, a political tell all, a self help sensation.
然后通常还会有我称之为‘爸爸书’的那一类。
And then there's usually what I would call a dad book.
很长一段时间以来，它都是大卫·格兰的《赌注》。
It was The Wager by David Gran for a long time.
现在是约翰·乌巴肯的《十一月的风暴》。
Now it's, The Gales of November by John Ubakken.
好的。
Okay.
都是海难故事。
Both shipwreck stories.
当然。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yes.
我想海难故事对爸爸们来说就像猫薄荷一样吸引人。
I guess shipwrecks are like catnip for dads.
对于对金融感兴趣的人，有时会有一本经济史书籍。
For the financially inclined, there's sometimes an economic history book.
比如这周就有安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金的《1929年》。
Like this week, there's Andrew Ross Sorkin's 1929.
但这些书的共同点是，在它们被选入榜单、迎来登上畅销书架的辉煌时刻之前，它们必须真正接触到顾客。
But the thing that unites all these books is that before they could be anointed to the list, before their triumphant moment getting promoted to the bestseller shelf, they had to actually get in front of customers.
为此，它们都必须通过最后一道考验。
And for that, they all had to pass this final test.
它们都必须获得像费舍尔这样的图书采购员的绿灯，这些采购员遍布全国成千上万家大小书店。
They all had to get a green light from book buyers like Fisher at thousands of bookstores, big and small, around the country.
我是最后一个在书上架之前把关的人。
I'm kind of the last person before it gets to the store.
因此，我是最后一道门卫，因为我决定我们是否要把这本书放进店里。
So I am the last gatekeeper because I decide whether we're even gonna have it in the store or not.
大家好，欢迎收听《金钱星球》。
Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.
我是亚历克西·霍罗维茨·加齐。
I'm Alexey Horowitz Gazi.
即使你已经通过了出版市场的重重考验，拿到了图书合约；即使你花了数年时间打磨每一句话、每一张插图；即使你走遍世界寻找最佳印刷厂，熬过无数不眠之夜印制了数万册图书——即便如此，仍有一群最终的评判者决定这本书能否摆上你附近的货架，那就是柜台后的图书销售员。
Even after you've made it through the gauntlet of the publishing market to land a book deal, after you've spent years perfecting every sentence and every illustration, after you've scoured the earth to find the best place to print the book and spent sleepless nights cranking out tens of thousands of copies, even after all of that, there is still one final group of judges who will determine whether a book makes it onto a shelf near you, the booksellers behind the counter.
今天在节目中，我们将继续播出系列节目的第三集，《金钱星球》将亲自尝试去卖一本书。
Today on the show, the third episode in our series, Planet Money sets out to actually sell a book.
我们将深入书店货架背后，了解出版商用来说服书店进货的秘密手段，从街角的小店到机场的巨头书店。
We burrow behind the bookstore shelves to learn the secret codes that publishers use to try to convince booksellers to carry the book, from little mom and pops to airport juggernauts.
节目中将涉及企业情报网络、特价区的花招，以及一台巨大的工业锯机每天成千上万地销毁图书。
There will be corporate intelligence networks, bargain bin shenanigans, and a giant industrial saw chewing up books by the thousands.
我们可以称之为《非虚构纸浆》。
Call it Pulp Nonfiction.
无论你是否意识到，美国的知识生活在很大程度上仍由真正上架销售的书籍决定。
Whether you realize it or not, America's intellectual life is still largely determined by what books actually make it to market.
而在出版行业取得成功，关键在于绕过一系列把关人。
And making it in the book business really comes down to getting around a series of gatekeepers.
有图书经纪人，有图书编辑，然后还有像费舍尔·纳什这样的书店从业者。
There are book agents and then book editors, and then there are people like Fisher Nash, the bookseller.
费舍尔就像是我们这样的书和真正想购买它们的顾客之间最后的终极关卡。
Fisher is kind of the final boss between books like ours and the customers who might actually want to buy them.
所以我们来深入了解一下费舍尔是如何做出这些决策的，部分原因是为了了解《Planet Money》这本书可能会表现如何。
So we're gonna do a dive into how Fisher actually makes these decisions, in part to understand how the Planet Money book might fare.
费舍尔解释说，这一切都是通过一年三次重复进行的过程来完成的。
This all plays out, Fisher explains, through a process that is repeated three times a year.
每个出版季，费舍尔都会收到所有出版商的目录，其中列出了他们的新书，从小型独立出版社到主导市场的五大出版巨头都有。
Every publishing season, Fisher will be inundated with all the publishers' catalogs outlining their new releases, from tiny independent presses all the way to the big five publishers that dominate the market.
每个目录可能包含多达2000个书名。
And each catalog can have as many as 2,000 titles.
费舍尔的工作就是逐个审阅这些书名，因为他们不想遗漏任何一本可能的好书。
Fisher's job is to go through every one of those titles because they don't wanna leave a single literary stone unturned.
去年我因为好奇，把数量加总了一下。
I added it up last year because I was curious.
根据不同的季节，我需要查看的书目数量在12000到15000本之间。
It adds up to anywhere, depending on the season, anywhere from 12 to 15,000 titles that I'm looking at.
天啊。
Wow.
那么，当你筛选这12000到15000本书的时候，大概有多少个可选的名额呢？
And roughly, how many slots do you have available when you're when you're sifting through these 12 to 15,000
没多少。
Not that many.
费舍尔说，每个季节，他们通常会订购大约3000本书，约占所推荐图书的20%到25%。
Fisher says each season, they'll usually end up ordering somewhere around 3,000 titles, about 20 to 25% of the books on offer.
费舍尔在做这些选择时的目标是挑选出能与卡迈克尔书店顾客产生共鸣、并保持书店盈利的书籍。
And Fisher's goal in placing these bets is to select books that'll connect with Carmichael's customers and keep the bookstore profitable.
这个选书流程是这样的：费舍尔会登录一个叫Edelweiss的网站。
The way this selection process works is that Fisher will go on to this website, Edelweiss.
这是一个在线平台，让书商能够在一个地方访问所有主要出版商的目录。
It's an online platform that gives booksellers access to all the major publishers' catalogs in one place.
费舍尔带我走进后办公室，打开他们笔记本电脑上的Edelweiss，向我演示这个过程是如何实际运作的。
Fisher takes me into the back office and fires up Edelweiss on their laptop to show me how this all works in practice.
我们来试一个吗？
Should we do one?
我们选一个目录来看看好吗？
Can we pick a catalog to look through?
为了好玩，我们看看诺顿的吧。
For fun, let's look at Norton.
哦。
Oh.
诺顿当然是《Planet Money》这本书的出版商，同时也是NPR的财务支持者。
Norton, of course, is the publisher of the Planet Money book and also a financial supporter of NPR.
在诺顿2026年冬季目录的顶部，我们发现了一本关于古迦太基的新历史著作，书名叫做《迦太基：一部新历史》。
At the top of Norton's winter catalog for 2026, we spy a new history of ancient Carthage called Carthage, a new history.
费舍尔向我介绍了他们在决定购买某本书的数量或是否订购时所考虑的不同因素。
Fisher runs me through the different variables they use to decide how many copies of a book to buy or whether to order it at all.
首先，是一些基本因素。
First, there are the basics.
比如这本关于迦太基的书。
For example, the book about Carthage.
这本书是精装版的。
It's a hardcover.
它的标价是39.99美元，对于这类偏学术性的历史类书籍来说，这个定价是合理的。
It is $39.99 list price, which makes sense for a more academic history title.
书的封面图也附在里面，这样费雪就能想象出这本书摆在书架上的样子。
There's the cover image so Fisher can imagine the book on the shelf.
里面还有这本书的内容简介，以及作者的名字。
There's a quick summary of what the book's about along with the author's name.
针对这本迦太基主题的书，费舍尔会核实该书作者是否是家喻户晓的人物。
For that, Fisher is checking to see if the author is a household name.
这会是马修·麦康纳最新的名人回忆录吗？
Is this the latest celebrity memoir from Matthew McConaughey?
还是某位前白宫内部人士爆料的政治秘闻类书籍？
Is it a political tell all from a former White House insider?
或是这位作者在社交平台上拥有大量粉丝？
Does the author have a big social media following?
这一点通常会 prominently 列出。
That'll often be listed prominently.
所以它会写明，她在 Twitter 上有 370 万粉丝，这对我来说很重要，因为我知道她已经拥有一批受众，她也会向这些人推广这本书。
So it would say, she has 3,700,000 followers on Twitter, which does matter to me because I know she has an audience already that she's also gonna be pitching the book to.
那么，多少粉丝数才算足够重要，能产生影响呢？
And like, what number feels significant enough to make a difference?
我想这取决于这本书。
I guess it depends on the book.
但只要是百万级别的粉丝数，我就会留意。
But anything in the millions, I pay attention to.
因为如果只有 1% 的粉丝买你的书，也就是每一百人中有一人购买，那也是上万人，这已经很多了。
Because if only 1% of your audience buys your book, if only one out of a 100 buy it, that's 10,000 people, which is a lot.
这仍然比大多数人的书销量要高。
That's still more than most people will sell of their book.
因此，对于《迦太基》这本书，费舍尔从未听说过作者——历史学家伊芙·麦克唐纳德，而且她的粉丝数也未超过一百万。
So In the case of Carthage, Fisher has never heard of the author, a historian named Eve MacDonald, nor does she have more than a million followers.
但费舍尔仍然想核实一下伊芙·麦克唐纳是否可能住在附近。
But Fisher still wants to check to see whether Eve MacDonald potentially lives nearby.
费舍尔最常购买的书籍之一，往往是作者来自本地的那些。
Some of the biggest book purchases that Fisher makes are often because the author is local.
例如，如果她是路易斯维尔大学的教授，我会更愿意购买，因为这个人在这里已经有现成的受众。
For example, if she's a University of Louisville professor, I'm gonna buy more because that person will have a built in audience here.
这是为家乡球队站队。
Got a rig for the home team.
她是卡迪夫大学的古代史教授。
She's a professor of ancient history at Cardiff University.
可以说是威尔士的路易斯维尔。
Sort of the Louisville of Wales.
我对卡迪夫没有恶意。
No shade to Cardiff.
费舍尔查阅的每一份目录条目都包含一个部分，注明任何宣传推广活动或媒体露面情况。
Every catalog entry that Fisher surveys has a section denoting any publicity campaigns or media appearances.
会有书展或其他线下活动吗？
Will there be a book tour or other live events?
作者会上电视或参加任何播客吗？
Will the author be going on TV or showing up in any podcasts?
他们有可能上《新鲜空气》节目吗？
Could they potentially get on fresh air?
特里·戈斯长期以来一直是图书宣传领域的《白鲸》。
Terry Gross, for a long time, has been kind of the Moby Dick of book publicity.
每条记录还列出了书籍的物理尺寸，费舍尔表示这会影响书籍是否能物理上放入商店的货架上。
Each entry also lists the physical dimensions of the book, which Fisher says can affect whether it'll physically fit onto the shelves in the store.
所以另一个重要的因素是页数。
So another thing that matters, the page count.
如果不超过500页，我就觉得这是标准的书本尺寸。
If it's 500 pages or less, then I just think, okay, kind of standard book size.
如果是1200页，我会想，即使我很想多进一些，也会少进一些，因为它占的空间太大了。
If it is 1,200 pages, I'm thinking, even if I want a lot of it, I'm gonna bring fewer into the story because it takes up so much room.
你在想，会有多少人愿意签下一本1200页的书呢？
And you're wondering, like, how many people are gonna sign up for a 1,200 page book?
是的。
Yeah.
愿意签这种书的人，肯定比愿意签一本精炼的350页书的人少。
That's not as many people as will sign up for a nice tight 350 pages.
其实有个理想区间，我觉得大概在250到400页之间。
There's kind of a sweet spot, like, between I think it's two fifty and four hundred.
这算是最理想的书籍页数范围。
It's kind of the ideal book range.
《迦太基》这本书正好在这个理想区间内，共368页。
The Carthage book is right in that sweet spot at 368 pages.
费舍尔通常还会在元数据中关注另一个非常重要的信息：出版社的首印数量。
And another very important piece of information that Fisher will often look for in the metadata is the size of the publisher's first print run.
首印数量能告诉你什么？
What does the print run tell you?
这实际上是衡量出版商信心的指标。
It's really a measure of publisher confidence.
如果出版商在首印时印了大量副本，比如十万册，这就表明他们认为这本书会卖得很好，费舍尔可能也想参与其中。
If a publisher prints a lot of copies for a book's first print run, say, a 100,000, that's an indicator they think it'll sell well and that Fisher might wanna get in on the action.
书籍目录条目中的下一条信息是，像费舍尔这样的书店是否可以退货。
The next piece of information in a book's catalog entry is whether booksellers like Fisher can return the book.
我们购买的书籍中有95%是可以退货的，也就是说，如果我们一段时间内卖不出去，可以把书退回给出版商。
95% of the books that we buy are returnable, meaning we can return this to the publisher if we don't sell it after a certain amount of time.
所以这在一定程度上降低了你订购这本书所承担的风险。
So it kind of hedges the risk that you might be taking by ordering this book.
没错。
Exactly.
出版商自己承担了书籍滞销的风险，因为书店可以把未售出的库存退回给出版商，从而拿回货款——如果你仔细想想，这其实相当不可思议。
Publishers themselves assume the risk for books that do not sell because bookstores can return unsold inventory back to the publishers and essentially get their money back, Which, if you think about it, is pretty wild.
通常情况下，风险是由零售商承担的。
Usually, the retailers assume the risk.
比如，沃恩的超市从纯果乐购买橙汁，但如果卖不出去，损失就得由沃恩自己承担。
Like, Vaughn's supermarket buys orange juice from Tropicana, but if they fail to sell those cartons to customers, it's on Vaughn's to figure out how to recoup their losses.
出版业与几乎所有其他行业都不同。
Publishing is different from basically every other industry out there.
这种奇特的商业模式可以追溯到大萧条时期。
And this weird business model goes back to the Great Depression.
当时，出版商推出这种模式，目的是帮助书店维持运营并自由进货。
That's when publishers offered this deal as a way of keeping bookstores afloat and ordering freely.
自那以后，没有任何一家主要出版商敢取消这种模式。
And no major publisher has dared roll it back since.
因此，书店在从出版商采购新书时，实际上拥有这份小小的保障。
So bookstores buy their new stock from publishers with this little insurance policy.
他们通常以定价的50%到60%付款，而《卡瑟奇》这本书的定价约为40美元。
They're usually paying around 50 to 60% of the list price, and the list price for the Carthage book is about $40.
所以你一开始就要垫付资金，每本书大约是20美元。
So you're putting up the the capital at the beginning, which is maybe $20 per copy.
然后如果你卖不掉，最终可以退回去，拿回那笔钱
And then if you don't sell it, eventually, you could send it back and get that
拿回这20美元。
$20 back.
扣除寄送的运费。
Minus the freight that it costs to send air.
我明白了。
I see.
所以
So
所以有点成本。
So a little bit of cost.
有点成本，但如果卖不掉，我们可以退回去。
A little cost, but we could send it back if it doesn't sell.
最后，我们来到了对费舍尔公司做决定至关重要的部分——类似书籍和销售追踪部分。
Finally, we get to the most important section of all for Fisher to make their decision, the comparable titles and sales tracking section.
在这里，出版商列出类似书籍，以便Fisher这样的书店查看这些书过去卖出了多少册。
This is where the publisher lists similar books so booksellers like Fisher can see how many copies of those titles their store has sold in the past.
如果同一位作者以前出过书，Fisher就可以看到他们之前卖得怎么样。
If the same author has published a book before, Fisher can see how well they sold.
因此，对于历史学家伊芙·麦克唐纳德的新书《古迦太基》来说
So in the case of historian Eve MacDonald's new book about ancient Carthage
这本书的竞品是伊芙·麦克唐纳德之前的著作《汉尼拔》，包括精装本和平装本。
The comps for this title are Eve MacDonald's previous book, Hannibal, both the hardcover and the paperback.
有些人其实是在和自己竞争。
Some people are just competing against themselves.
没错。
Exactly.
不过这非常有用，因为这里的数字告诉我，我们以前卖过她的精装书。
This is very useful, though, because the numbers here tell me that we have sold her in hardcover before.
作者的销售记录，简称TRAC，是判断一位作者的新书是否已经在你的书店拥有潜在读者群的最重要指标之一，这让订购新书变得更加稳妥。
The author's sales track record or TRAC for short is one of the biggest indicators that an author's new book may already have an audience at your bookstore, and it makes ordering that new book a safer bet.
我可以看到我们总共卖出了三本，听起来好像不多。
And I can see that we sold a total of three copies, which doesn't sound like that much.
但对于一家小型书店来说，一本历史书能卖这么多已经相当不错了。
But for a history book in a small bookstore, that's a pretty decent amount.
这让我决定再次进货她的书。
It tells me I'm going to buy her again.
我们对她有市场需求。
We have a market for her.
费舍尔基于我们讨论的所有因素，决定订购这本书。
Fisher decides they are going to order the book because of all the factors we've talked about.
还有另一件小事，他们在考虑每本书时，有时也会想到可能对这本书感兴趣的特定顾客。
And one other little thing, as they're considering each book, they're also sometimes thinking about specific customers who might want that book.
我们有一些顾客，我非常了解，他们是非常忠实的常客。
We have a few customers that I just I know very well, and they're very regular.
所以当我看到一些我知道他们一定会买的东西时，我会标记他们，这样他们进店时我就能通知他们。
So when I see something that I know that they specifically will buy, I tag them for it so that I can let them know when they walk in the door.
至于迦太基的情况
And in the case of Carthage
我知道具体哪位顾客会对这本书感兴趣。
I know exactly which customer is going to be interested in this book.
我已经在这里给他标好了。
I've even tagged him down here.
我会保密他的名字。
I shall keep his name private.
我喜欢这一点。
I love that.
你在翻阅所有出版社的目录时，有时会看到一本书，你知道某个特定顾客一定会感兴趣，于是就下单订购。
You're looking through all of these publishers' catalogs, and sometimes you'll see a book that you know a particular customer will be interested in, and so you order it.
我知道他们可能是唯一对这本书感兴趣的人。
And I know they might be the only person interested in it.
最终，费舍尔决定为两家卡迈克尔书店各订购一本《迦太基：新史》。
In the end, Fisher decides to order one copy of Carthage, a New History for each of the two Carmichaels bookstores.
费舍尔对每一本书都应用的这种评估过程，花十分钟才能解释清楚，但当他实际操作时，只需短短一瞬。
And this whole evaluation process that Fisher applies to every book, the one that's taken about ten minutes to explain, when Fisher does it, it actually happens in a fraction of that time.
我尽量给每本书三十秒或更少的时间，这听起来不多。
I try to give each title thirty seconds or less, which doesn't sound like a lot.
所有为构思一本书、撰写提案、出版社决定预付多少资金、以及历经编辑、整理、撰写销售文案所投入的多年心血，最终都浓缩为三十秒的密集审视，在成千上万本书中决定它是否能进入书店。
So all of the years of work that's gone into thinking up the idea for a book and crafting a book proposal and the publishers figuring out how much money they're willing to put on the line for the advance and then going through the trouble of editing the book and getting it together to craft the sales copy, all of that eventually boils down to thirty seconds of intense scrutiny amidst thousands of other books to decide whether or not it gets into a bookstore.
是的。
Yes.
这听起来真的很残酷。
That sounds really harsh.
但这三十秒是一个充满信息的丰富时刻。
But that thirty seconds is a very rich moment filled with information.
至于我真正来这儿想问的问题：《Planet Money》这本书在那充满信息的三十秒考验中表现如何？
As to the question I was really here for, how did the Planet Money book fare in that information rich thirty second trial by fire?
费舍尔说，他们去年十一月在快速浏览诺顿公司的冬季目录时第一次遇到了这本书。
Fisher says they first encountered it last November while blazing through Norton's winter catalog.
费舍尔知道卡迈克尔的很多顾客都听NPR。
And Fisher knew that a lot of Carmichael's customers listened to NPR.
我觉得这很棒。
I'm like, cool.
他们写了一本书，尽管我对这个特定的NPR产品不太熟悉。
They wrote a book, even though I wasn't as familiar with this particular NPR product.
是的。
Yeah.
可能有个比‘产品’更好的词。
There's probably a better word than product.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我们喜欢被商品化。
We like to be commodified.
好的。
Okay.
费舍尔的分析？
Fisher's analysis?
在篇幅和页数上，《Planet Money》这本书正好处于理想区间。
On size and page count, the Planet Money book was in the sweet spot.
他们喜欢那些富有奇趣的彩色插图样本。
They liked the sample images of the whimsical color illustrations.
虽然没有推荐语，但这一点似乎无关紧要，因为这本书是由一家常提供推荐语的公共媒体公司撰写的。
There weren't any blurbs, but that seemed fine since it was being written by a public media company often supplying the blurbs.
最后，费舍尔快速浏览了类似的作品。
Finally, Fisher quickly scans the comparable titles.
他们发现其中一本《99% Invisible》这本书在卡迈克尔书店销量不错，还有《Atlas Obscura》的美食版也是如此。
They see that one of them, the 99% Invisible book, had sold well at Carmichael's, as had the Atlas Obscura food book.
《Atlas Obscura》是一个相当知名的品牌。
Atlas Obscura is a pretty recognizable brand.
99%隐形是一个相当知名的品牌。
Ninety nine percent Invisible is a pretty recognizable brand.
Planet Money也是一个相当知名的品牌。
Planet Money is a pretty recognizable brand.
所以我知道我想找一个类似的东西。
So I knew that I wanted something similar.
关于他们想要的册数，费舍尔试图找到一个平衡点。
In terms of the number of copies they wanted, Fisher was aiming to thread a sort of needle.
一方面，他们担心订货过多。
On the one hand, they were worried about over ordering.
在过去一年里，他们对一位热门作者的新书下了大注，而这位作者上一本书卖得像疯了一样。
In the past year, they'd taken a big bet on a new book by a popular author whose last book sold like bananas.
他们订购了好几箱这本书，结果却发现顾客其实并不怎么喜欢。
They'd ordered several cases of the book only to discover that customers did not really care for it.
而且，是的，这些书是可以退货的。
And, yes, the books are returnable.
但由于书店需要支付运费，他们通常会等待好几个月。
But because bookstores have to pay shipping, they'll often wait several months.
与此同时，这些未售出的书籍占用了宝贵的空间和资金。
In the meantime, those unsold books eat up valuable real estate and capital.
然后我们就卡住了，手里有24本这样的书，整整几个月都堆在那里。
And then we're stuck with 24 copies of a book that just sit around for months and months and months.
我看到它们，就提醒自己当初不该一次性买这么多。
And I see it, and it reminds me I was wrong to buy so many upfront.
我本不必做这个选择。
I didn't have to make that choice.
我本来只要拿六七本就够了。
I could have just gotten six or seven.
每一天，你都会被这个决定提醒。
Every day, you're reminded of that decision.
是的。
Oh, yes.
但与此同时，费舍尔也担心订货不足。
But at the same time, Fisher was also worried about under ordering.
他们最近刚经历过一件事，关于安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金的书《1929年》，这是一本关于引发大萧条的股市崩盘的历史著作。
They'd also recently had an experience with this, with Andrew Ross Sorkin's book, Nineteen Twenty Nine, a history of the stock market crash that sparked the Great Depression.
费舍尔只订购了几本那本书，结果很快就卖光了。
Fisher had ordered only a few copies of that book, which sold out almost immediately.
而这是费舍尔想避免的结果，因为与订货过多相比，第一天就售罄
And that's an outcome Fisher wants to avoid because compared to over ordering the book, selling out on the first day
这会更糟，因为我们失去了销售机会。
It would be worse because we're losing sales.
如果顾客在新书发售当天来购买，而我们却因为没进够货而售罄，那可能看起来只是损失了几分钱，但对一家小书店来说，这些损失真的会累积起来。
If people are coming in on sale date for a brand new book and we run out of it because I didn't buy enough, then we might miss it's pennies, but it really does add up for a small bookstore.
你真的不想把任何钱留在桌上。
You really don't wanna be leaving any money on
不。
the No.
当你订货不足时，就摆上桌子。
Table when you're under ordering.
是的。
Yes.
但我们也没有足够的空间去不断冒险，所以这是一场平衡的艺术。
But we also don't necessarily have the space to just take constant risks, so it is a balancing act.
费舍尔在决定《Planet Money》这本书的订货量时，选择了为卡迈克尔的两家门店各订购四本。
And the balance Fisher decided to strike when it came to the Planet Money book was to order four copies for each of the two Carmichaels locations.
数量足够摆上展示桌，但又不会多到万一卖不动造成太大损失。
Enough to feature them on the display table, but not so many that it'd be a big problem if they turned out to be slow sellers.
所以我很快就做了决定，只用了三十秒。
So I made that decision fast, thirty seconds.
我们想要这本书。
We want it.
我们需要展示的数量。
We want display quantity.
每家店四本。
Four at each store.
继续。
Move on.
每家店四本，本来会一直这样下去，直到费舍尔的诺顿出版社销售代表梅格·谢尔曼的一次谈话改变了这一切。
And four copies at each store, it would have stayed if it hadn't been for a conversation with Fisher's sales rep from Norton, a woman named Meg Sherman.
因为这种季节性图书订购有一个最后的步骤。
Because there is a final step to the ritual of this seasonal book order.
每个季节，像费舍尔这样的书商都会浏览某家出版社的目录，但他们直到与该出版社的代表面对面交谈后，才会最终确定订单。
Every season, booksellers like Fisher will go through a given publisher's catalog, but they don't actually lock in their book orders until they have a sit down conversation with a representative from that publisher.
你看，销售代表可能知道买家不了解的信息，比如目录中未能体现的整体背景，以及相关更新，例如这本书是否被好莱坞大制片厂买下改编权，或者作者是否终于抓住了那条白鲸，登上了《新鲜空气》节目。
You see, sales reps might know things the book buyer doesn't know, the big picture context that might not have come through in the catalog, and relevant updates, like if the book got optioned by a major Hollywood studio or if the author did manage to catch the white whale and get on fresh air.
如果销售代表认为某位书商低估了某本书的需求，包括《Planet Money》这本书，他们可以提供一些修正建议。
The sales agent can offer a little corrective if they think that one of their booksellers is underestimating the demand for a given title, including the Planet Money book.
我后来在会议上和我的销售代表梅格聊了，她说：你得留意一下这本书。
I talked to Meg, my sales rep, later at our meeting, and she said, you'll wanna keep an eye on this.
你可能需要的比你想象的要多。
You might want more than you think you do.
因此到了十一月，费舍尔决定增加《星球金钱》这本书的订单量，但他们会在图书四月上市前几个月才最终确定具体数量。
So by the November, Fisher decided they wanted to up the order for Planet Money books, but they would decide exactly how many a couple months before the book launch April.
现在，费舍尔可以转向他们作为卡迈克尔书店购书负责人角色的第二个重要部分。
Now Fisher could turn to the second big part of their role as Carmichael's book buyer.
他们必须回答这本书实际该放在商店的哪个位置这个问题。
They had to answer the question of where in the store the book would actually live.
这个决定可能对一本书是否能成功销售产生重大影响。
And this decision can have big implications for whether a book actually sells.
费舍尔会考虑出版商自己对这本书的分类方式。
Fisher takes into account how the publishers themselves have decided to categorize the book.
出版商会为他们的图书分配一种叫做BISAC编码的分类代码。
Publishers assign their titles something called a BISAC code.
BISAC代表图书行业标准与交流。
BISAC stands for Book Industry Standards and Communications.
诺顿为《Planet Money》这本书分配了商业与经济学类的BISAC编码。
Norton had assigned the Planet Money book a BISAC code for business and economics.
实际上，这个编码就印在书上条形码的上方。
It's actually printed on the book above the barcode.
对费舍尔来说，这意味着可以把这本书放在商业区，方便专门寻找这类书的读者。
For Fisher, that could mean shelving the book in the business section, which might be useful for readers specifically seeking it out.
但在卡迈克尔书店，商业区被安排在了后角落里。
But at Carmichael's, the business section is kinda tucked into a back corner.
因为顾客进店时不容易一眼看到它。
Because it's not immediately visible when you walk in the store
是的。
Yeah.
我不希望它被埋没在那个角落里。
I didn't want it to kind of disappear back there.
因为我觉得这本书属于那种人们看到后会说‘嘿’的类型。
Because I do feel like it's the kind of book that people will see and say, hey.
展开剩余字幕（还有 252 条）
我听了《Planet Money》。
I listened to Planet Money.
这本书讲的是什么？
What's this book about?
费舍尔不希望《Planet Money》这本书和卡迈克尔书店因此卖得更少。
Fisher did not wanna doom the Planet Money book and Carmichael's to selling fewer copies.
费舍尔最近刚在安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金的《1929》这本书上犯过这个错误。
Fisher had actually made this mistake recently with Andrew Ross Sorkin's nineteen twenty nine.
他们不仅订货太少，还把这本书扔到了令人头疼的商业区角落。
Not only did they order too few copies, but they'd consigned the book to the dreaded backwaters of the business section.
所以这次，他们决定把《Planet Money》这本书归类为普通新非虚构类，放在靠近书店入口的大书架上。
So this time, they decided to categorize the Planet Money book as general new non fiction, which lives on a big shelf near the entrance to the store.
我们去看看这本书会放在哪里。
Let's take a look at where the book is gonna live.
它会放在卡尔·马克思的《资本论》旁边。
It will be between Karl Marx's capital.
好的。
Alright.
紧挨着卡尔·马克思，原始的《Planet Money》主持人。
Next to Karl Marx, the original Planet Money host.
哦，这真有趣。
Oh, that's funny.
等书出版的时候，情况可能会不一样。
It might be different by the time the book comes out.
这取决于马克思的书卖得怎么样。
Kinda depends how well Marx is selling.
是的。
Yeah.
他的书在这里卖得不错。
He sells pretty well here.
但这本书还可能——也许更重要的是——摆在商店中央的显眼展示台上。
But the book will also, maybe more importantly, live on the coveted display table at the center of the store.
费舍尔和我走过去看看它具体会放在哪里。
Fisher and I walk over to see exactly where it'll go.
我们会把卡尔·奥韦·坎尔斯高挪走。
We'll move Karl Ove canalsgaard.
他可以放别处。
He can go somewhere else.
那只是他最新的一部分。
That'll just be the latest part
他的抗争历程。
of his struggle.
我们可能会把它放在这里，就在现在《强度》和詹姆斯·李·伯克之间。
And we will probably put it somewhere here between right now, it would be intensity and this James Lee Burke.
那里正好有个大小合适的《Planet Money》空位。
There's a nice little Planet Money sized hole right there.
就是这样。
There you go.
听众看不到这个。
Listeners can't see this.
所以，在经历了这一切之后——让这本书接受他们三十秒的严峻考验，又受到诺顿销售代表的温和推动，费舍尔说，最终决定订购多少册时，还有一个临门一脚的因素。
So after all that, after subjecting the book to their thirty second trial by fire, after getting a gentle nudge from Norton's sales rep, Fisher says there was one last minute factor that went into the final number of copies they decided to order.
显然，因为我为了这一集造访了卡迈克尔书店，费舍尔现在预期当地对《Planet Money》这本书的需求会增加。
Apparently, the fact that I was visiting Carmichael's bookstore for this episode meant that Fisher was now anticipating more local demand for the Planet Money book.
观察行为本身扭曲了这个实验。
The act of observation had warped the experiment.
这并非我的本意，但事情就是如此。
Not my intention, but so it goes.
最终，费舍尔决定每家店订购20本《Planet Money》的书，总计不少于40本。
And in the end, Fisher decided to order 20 copies of the Planet Money book per store, so no fewer than 40 copies total.
至于这场游戏中最神圣的圣杯——畅销书货架——要想获得一席之地，诺顿的销售团队必须想得更远，不能只盯着路易斯维尔一家小型独立书店连锁。
As for the holiest grail in the game, the best seller shelf, to even get a shot at that, the sales team at Norton would have to be thinking much bigger than one little chain of independent bookstores in Louisville, Kentucky.
他们必须启动将《Planet Money》这本书推向巅峰的计划。
They'd have to initiate their plan to launch the Planet Money book into the stratosphere.
这将在广告后播出。
That's coming up after the break.
费舍尔·纳什只是全国成千上万书商中的一位，而独立书店也只是这本书将要面对的众多销售渠道之一。
Fisher Nash is just one bookseller out of thousands all around the country, and independent bookstores are just one sales channel where this will all be playing out.
因此，为了了解《Planet Money》这本书在更广泛市场上的前景，我必须再往上走一步，找到负责制定策略、榨取《Planet Money》这本书每一分潜在收益的人——W.W.诺顿公司贸易销售总监史蒂文·佩斯。
So to get a sense of the Planet Money book's chances out on the broader marketplace, I had to go one final link higher in the great chain of publishing to the person tasked with figuring out the strategy for ringing every possible dollar and cent out of the Planet Money book, w w Norton's director of trade sales, Steven Pace.
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是，如果有什么最能定义我，那就是没有什么比无法完成销售更让我困扰的了。
I I I mean, if there's anything that would define me, it was the fact that nothing bothers me more than not being able to make a sale.
史蒂文在十几岁时在书店工作时，就爱上了出版行业。
Steven fell in love with the book business while working at a bookstore as a teenager.
从那以后，他一度经营过自己的书店，担任过主要出版商的销售代表，最终晋升为诺顿公司的贸易销售主管。
Since then, he ran his own bookstore for a while, became a sales rep for major publishers, all before rising to become the head of trade sales at Norton.
你会不会把书当成有生命的东西来看待？
Do you ever anthropomorphize your books?
比如，把它们想象成《玩具总动员》里的角色，有自己的希望和梦想？
Like, think of them like they're characters in Toy Story or something with their own hopes and dreams?
有趣的是，你这么一说。
Well, it's funny you say that.
我从小就觉得，书就像孩子一样。
I I grew up understanding that books are like babies.
当我们终于完成一本书，把它装箱，运送到全国各地的书店时。
When we get to the place where we've got a a book that's finished and it's being put in boxes boxes and and sent sent out out to to stores stores around around the country.
我会确保对每一个这样的小宝贝都悉心照料。
And I make sure that we're taking as good a care as we can for each one of those little babies.
斯蒂文在出版流程中的角色，基本上从编辑提出一个书稿想法并认真考虑时就开始了。
Steven's role in the publishing process begins basically as soon as an editor brings in a book idea for serious consideration.
编辑的主要职责是专注于书籍的写作和设计，而斯蒂文的职责则是专注于这本书作为一项财务投资的潜力。
See, while the editor's primary job is to obsess over the writing and design of a book, Steven's mandate is to obsess over what the book might mean as a financial investment.
从根本上说，斯蒂文试图估算一本书可能卖出多少册。
At its core, Steven is trying to estimate how many copies a book might sell.
为此，他首先会建立一个模型。
To do that, he starts by building a model.
最初，每当有新的书稿被认真考虑收购时，这个模型仅基于类似书籍过去一段时间的销售情况。
At first, whenever a new book idea is being seriously considered for acquisition, the model is just based on the comparable titles and how they've sold over time.
这有助于诺顿决定是否购买这本书以及出价多少。
This is what helps Norton determine whether they buy the book and for how much.
我的工作既要防范下行风险，也要尽力把握上行机会。
My job is to both protect against the downside and to try to ensure the upside.
一旦诺顿决定出版某本书，并且它进入制作流程，史蒂文的任务就是持续更新这个模型。
Once Norton is committed to publishing a book and as it moves through the production pipeline, Steven's job is to keep updating the model.
为此，他一直在开展一种情报工作，从庞大的销售团队中收集市场信号。
To do this, he's constantly running a kind of intelligence operation, hoovering up the market signals from his vast sales force.
诺顿在全国各地都有面向独立书店的销售代表，也有面向连锁书店和在线零售商的代表，他们都在协商各自会订购多少册某本书。
Norton has sales reps for the independent bookstores in each part of the country, and there are reps for bookstore chains and online retailers, all negotiating over how many copies of a given book they will order.
这些订单就是反馈回来的情报。
The orders are the intelligence that comes back to us.
因为当诺顿的销售代表们走向市场，向全国各地成千上万像费舍尔这样的书商推广《Planet Money》这本书时，他们也在将这些订单预测反馈给总部的史蒂文。
Because as Norton's sales reps are hitting the ground, pushing the Planet Money book to the thousands of book buyers like Fisher all around the nation, they are also running those order estimates back up the chain to Steven in central command.
然后，他将所有这些信息输入模型，以决定诺顿首次印刷的书籍数量。
He's then feeding all that information into his model to decide the number of copies of a book Norton will print in the first run.
他需要印刷足够的书籍，以满足所有预计的需求。
He needs to print enough books to supply all the estimated demand.
我的工作是确保首次印刷既具有前瞻性。
My job is to make sure that the first print is both aspirational.
是的。
Yeah.
在所有情况下，我都希望印刷的书比我认为能卖出去的还要多，但我也必须卖掉我印出来的每一本书。
I wanna have more books than I think I can sell in all cases, but I also have to sell everything I make.
因此，每次设定首次印刷数量时，我都在为自己设定一个目标，并寻找实现它的路径。
So I'm I'm both setting a goal for myself and finding a pathway to achieve it every time I set a first print.
史蒂文面临的挑战，某种程度上类似于费舍尔在卡迈克尔书店所面对的，只是规模大得多。
Steven's challenge is kind of a version of what Fisher faces at Carmichael's bookstore, but at a much bigger scale.
他需要确保在任何书店里，都不会有顾客想买《Planet Money》这本书却空手而归。
He needs to ensure there'll never be a customer in any bookstore asking for a Planet Money book and coming away empty handed.
如果我书不够，一开卖就断货，得等六个月才能再印并补货，那我就彻底完蛋了。
If I don't have enough books, if I start to sell and I don't have books and I gotta wait six months to print and get those books back in, I'm dead in the water.
几乎不可能在六个月后再回头做一本书时，重新点燃当初那样的需求。
It's just almost no way I can come back to a book six months later and gin up the same kind of demand that I had.
所以他不想印得太少，也希望能在需要时快速、方便地加印，比如在国内印刷。
So he doesn't wanna print too few copies, and he wants to be able to print later runs of the book in a quick and convenient way by, for example, printing the book domestically.
但同时，如果印得太多，又会占用Norton仓库的大量空间。
At the same time, if he prints too many copies, he'll risk clogging up Norton's warehouse.
这就是我们所说的机会成本。
This what we call the opportunity cost.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Right.
书籍在仓库中滞销的时间越长，就越会挤占那些可能卖得更快的书籍的库存空间，从而产生更多成本。
The more time the books sit there unsold in the warehouse, the more they cost by crowding out books that might sell faster.
在确定印数时，最大的潜在成本之一就是可能退回的书籍数量。
One of the biggest potential costs in figuring out the print run is the number of returns that might be coming back.
记住，由于出版业独特的运作方式，如果一本书的销量低于模型预测，所有书店都可以将未售出的库存退回像诺顿这样的出版社。
Remember, because of the weird specific way publishing is set up, if a book doesn't sell as well as the model had estimated, all those bookstores will be free to send unsold inventory back to publishers like Norton.
这是一个出版业多年来通过几种不同方法逐步适应的重大挑战。
This is a massive challenge that the publishing industry has adapted to over the years with a few different techniques.
第一种方法叫做折价清仓。
The first is called remaindering.
这意味着以极低的折扣出售未售出的书籍。
That means selling off unsold books at a huge discount.
折价清仓是指，比如你收到了大量退回的书籍，某个可能经营仓储并以四折销售书籍的人可能会来找你，说：好的。
Remaindering is when you, say, get a large quantity of a book back, and someone who might run a book warehouse who sells books at 40 off might come to you and say, okay.
我看到你有很多库存，我愿意每本出3美元买下所有这些库存。
I see you have a lot of inventory, and I will pay you $3 per copy to buy all of that inventory.
是的
Yeah.
他们通过各种不同的渠道销售这些书。
And they sell it through all kinds of various channels.
所以当你在亚马逊上看到第三方零售商以远低于标价或书店里五折促销区出售书籍时，这些通常都是滞销书。
So when you see a third party retailer on Amazon selling books for way less than the listed price or 50% off bargain bins at a bookstore, those are often remainders.
出版商通常会要求滞销书以某种方式做标记，以免重新进入正常销售渠道。
Publishers often ask that remaindered books are marked in some ways so they don't reenter the regular market.
因此你可能会看到一本书的侧面有黑色记号笔的标记，或者条形码被打了个洞。
So you might see a book with a black Sharpie mark on the side or a hole punched out of the barcode.
然而，有时出版商认为彻底止损、直接通过纸浆化处理销毁滞销库存反而更合算，也就是把书拆解，使其能被回收制成新纸张和其他产品。
Sometimes, however, publishers decide it actually makes more economic sense to cut their losses entirely and simply destroy unsold inventory by pulping it, basically ripping a book apart so it can be recycled into new paper and other products.
因为对出版商而言，大量珍贵作品出现在促销区，或在即将推出平装本时仍有大量精装本在售，都不是好事。
Because for publishers, it's not a good look to have a ton of your precious works in the bargain bin or to have too many hardcovers on sale when they're about to, say, release a new paperback.
史蒂文提到了沃尔特·艾萨克森所著、西蒙与舒斯特出版社几年前出版的《埃隆·马斯克传》作为例子。
Steven points to the example of Walter Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, published by Simon and Schuster a few years ago.
它曾经卖得非常好。
It sold very well for a while.
对吧？
Right?
但有一天，突然就卖不动了。
And then one day, it just stopped.
史蒂文不知道具体剩下多少本书，但他表示数量很容易达到数十万本。
Steven doesn't know the actual numbers of leftover books here, but he says it could easily be in the hundreds of thousands.
当你有这么多书时，你真的必须尽力回收一部分成本和损失。
When you have that many books, you really have to try to recover some of that inventory cost and the loss.
所以他们会把《马斯克》这本书作为清仓处理。
So they would remainder in Elon Musk.
史蒂文说，他们会根据清仓市场的状况尽量卖掉大部分书，其余的则进行纸浆化处理。
Steven says they'd likely try to sell off a big chunk of books depending on the remainders market and then pulp the rest.
所以这其实是为了尽量减少损失。
So it's trying to sort of, like, minimize your losses.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
这可以说是一场拍卖，一种清仓大甩卖。
It's an auction, if you will, kind of a fire sale auction.
你见过吗
Have you ever seen a
一批书被纸浆化吗？
batch of books being pulped?
是的。
Yes.
那是九十年代的事了。
This was back in the nineties.
当时，史蒂文说他正在一家五大出版社担任销售代表，他和其他销售代表被邀请到仓库，观看公司如何处理积压库存。
At the time, Steven says he was working at one of the big five publishers as a sales rep, and he and the other reps were invited to a warehouse to see how the company handled some of its unsold inventory.
那是一个巨大的传送带，你把书放上去，它们会被送到一台巨大的碎纸机里。
It's a giant conveyor belt, and you put books on it, and it runs up to this giant shredder machine.
而且它每天24小时、每周7天不停地运转。
And it just runs twenty four hours a day, seven days a week.
他们的想法是，想让我们销售团队感受到，他们正在销毁这些积压的库存。
And their idea was to try try to give us, you know, a sense as a sales team that they were destroying this over inventory.
这些书并没有堆在仓库里。
It wasn't piling up in the warehouse.
我们也不用被迫回头去处理这些退货商品。
It wasn't like we were gonna be forced to turn around and sell all this return merchant.
你知道的。
You know?
我们所有人走出那里时都震惊了。
We all walked out of there aghast.
我们简直不敢相信。
We could not believe.
我的意思是，我们真的在想，你们真的这么做了吗？我们都哭了。
I mean, we were really like did you I mean, we're all crying.
你能相信吗？
Like, can you believe?
而那些书就在那里被切成碎片，你知道，一瞬间它们还值29.99美元。
And there it is just getting chopped to shreds, you know, and it's like one moment, it's worth $29.99.
下一秒，它们就只值10美分的纸钱了。
The next moment, it's worth 10¢ in paper.
你知道，那些花了多年时间才写成的书，被扔进机器里，就像木屑机一样，十五秒就全没了。
You know, it's something that took years and put it in that machine and then, you know, like a wood chipper in fifteen seconds.
完全看不到任何残留的痕迹，这简直摧残人心。
There's just no sign of anything at all that remains, and it's soul crushing.
史蒂文说，这种文学工业大屠杀的画面，几十年来一直萦绕在他心头。
Steven says that image of industrial literary carnage has stayed with him over the decades.
如今，作为一家大型出版社的销售主管，这依然影响着他对于印刷和浪费的看法。
And now as the head of a sales operation for a major publisher, it still informs the way he thinks about printing and waste.
当你作为销售人员想到这一点时，你会说，天啊。
When you think about that, right, as a salesperson and you go like, well, wow.
所有那些退回的书真的是一场灾难。
All those returns coming back really are just a disaster.
你会因为这个而变得更擅长自己的工作，因为这种命运对书籍来说简直像是某种邪恶的宿命。
You get better at what you do because that's a fate that just seems to be, you know, almost evil for books to have to endure.
对吧？
Right?
我们如此在乎这些书。
We we care so much about them.
我们最不想看到的就是它们被巨大的圆锯碾碎。
The last thing we wanna see is just to get them, you know, chewed up by a giant chainsaw.
史蒂文说，诺顿公司并不用纸浆化的方式来处理退回的库存，尽管他们偶尔会对损坏的书籍进行纸浆化处理。
Steven says Norton does not use pulping to manage its returned inventory, though they will occasionally pulp damaged books.
但这意味着，他在计算和决定印刷多少本书时，必须更加谨慎。
But that all means that his calculations and figuring out how many books to print are even more important.
所以他把大量精力都投入在这里。
So that's where he pours a lot of his energy.
你知道，他只是想非常非常简洁地把握你真正需要的东西，不多不少。
You know, it's just he's trying to be very, very concise on what you think you need, and not too much beyond that.
你追求的是一种完美的效率。
You're chasing, like, perfect efficiency.
没错，正是这样。
That's exactly right.
作为贸易销售主管，史蒂文表示，他的职责是考虑他们所有图书的长期经济效益，而出版社的长期生存依赖于一批稳定畅销的常销书。
As the head of trade sales, Steven says it's his responsibility to think about the long term economic life of all their books, a publisher sustained in the long term by a steady back catalog of dependable sellers.
因此，他对于《Planet Money》这本书的最终目标是实现第二次印刷，然后第三次，以此类推。
And so his ultimate goal for the Planet Money book is to get to a second printing and then a third and so on.
但为了确保这本书拥有长久而强劲的生命力，你希望这本刚面世的新书在进入零售市场的第一步就走得稳健有力。
But in order to set the book up for a long, strong life, you want that freshly born baby book's first steps out into the world of retail to be as strong and steady as possible.
因为一本书的首秀越成功，它一生中可能获得的收益就越高。
Because the better the baby's debut, the higher its lifetime potential earnings are likely to be.
所以史蒂文说，他已经动员了整个销售团队，把《Planet Money》这本书放进你能想到的每一个零售渠道。
So Steven says he's mobilized his entire sales force to get the Planet Money book into every retail outlet you can imagine.
我们现在会进入哪些渠道？
What channels are we gonna be in at this point?
所有渠道。
Everything.
所有渠道。
Everything.
所有连锁书店，所有独立书店。
Every chain bookseller, every independent bookseller.
我的意思是，这将是2026年我们最大的一次推广突破之一。
I mean, it's one of the biggest advances that we will we will have in all of 2026.
这正朝着迈克尔·刘易斯式的发行模式靠拢。
It's it's approaching in the Michael Lewis vein of distribution.
你将在机场商店看到它，而且会看到两个货架，每个放十本。
You'll see it in an airport store, and you'll see two bays with 10 copies.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们会在机场看到《Planet Money》这本书吗？
So we're gonna see the Planet Money book in airports?
是的。
Oh, yes.
哦，我们还没告诉过你这一点。
Oh, we haven't told you that yet.
好吧，是的，我们会在每一个完整的机场书店上架。
Well, yes, we will be in every full on airport store.
史蒂文告诉我，这本书将在bookshop.org和amazon.com上发售。
The book, Steven tells me, will be available on bookshop.org, amazon.com.
它还将登陆图书馆、礼品店、军事基地，
It'll roll out in libraries, gift shops, military bases,
甚至游轮上。
even cruise ships.
我们做到了面面俱到。
We left no stone unturned.
我不知道在游轮上还能买书。
I didn't know you could buy books on a cruise ship.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
不仅在游轮上，而且在停靠的港口也有。
Not only on the cruise ship, but in the ports of call.
有一些零售商实际上会推着手推车。
There are retailers that actually have carts.
当游轮靠岸时，他们会把一辆手推车推过来，上面摆着二十、三十、四十本不同的书，人们就会说，哦，我读完一本书了。
And when the cruise ship is letting off, they pull a cart up there, and it has twenty, thirty, 40 different books on it, and people, you know, oh, I finished my book.
我需要再买一本。
I need another book.
对。
Yeah.
两家邮轮公司实际上设有小型书店。
Two of the cruise lines actually have small bookstores.
史蒂文说，这本书还将登陆欧洲和中东地区。
Steven says the book will also roll out in Europe and The Middle East.
诺顿公司已经收到了来自泰国、新加坡，甚至马来西亚的订单。
Norton's gotten orders from Thailand, Singapore, even Malaysia.
韩文版计划于六月出版，中文版则定于九月推出。
There's a Korean translation slated to come out in June and a Chinese translation scheduled for September.
《Planet Money》这本书显然正在走向全球。
The Planet Money book was apparently going planetary.
但必须说，在我与史蒂文交谈后的那些日子里，所有这些仍然感觉很抽象，就像是一堆遥不可及的未来幻想，直到本周早些天的一天。
But I have to say, in the days after I spoke to Steven, all of this still felt kind of abstract, like a collection of daydreamy plans for something way off in the future, until one day earlier this week.
我们走这边吧。
Let's go this way.
好的。
Okay.
就在那时，我上司的上司——我的顶头上司亚历克斯·戈德马克——我决定沿着曼哈顿下城南街海港的古朴鹅卵石路散散步。
That's when my boss's boss, my grandboss Alex Goldmark, I decided to take a stroll down the rustic cobblestones of the South Street Seaport in Lower Manhattan.
所以，正是在这里，《Planet Money》这本书的真正想法诞生了？
So this is where the kind of real idea for the Planet Money book was born?
是的。
Yeah.
我会说，我的《Planet Money》书籍之旅正是从那里开始的。
I would say right there is where my journey with the Planet Money book began.
亚历克斯指给我看那张野餐桌，将近四年前，他就是在那里第一次与美国国家公共电台的文学代理讨论出版《Planet Money》一书的可能性，而那时他根本没想到这会牵涉如此多的工作。
Alex points out the picnic table where almost four years ago, he first sat down with NPR's literary agents to talk about a potential Planet Money book before he really knew how much work all of this would entail.
制作这本书很难。
Making the book is hard.
你当初觉得会这么难吗？
Did you think it was gonna be this hard?
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
绝对不是。
Absolutely not.
然而，在经历了一切之后，我们这一天来到了一个特别的日子。
Yet after everything that had happened, here we were on a very special day.
《Planet Money》这本书发布的那一天。
The very day of the Planet Money book launch.
巧合的是，街角就有一家独立书店，名叫麦克纳利杰克逊。
And as it happens, there's an independent bookstore right down the street called McNally Jackson.
我们要不要去看看
Should we see if the
《Planet Money》这本书在书店里吗？
Planet Money book is in the bookstore?
是的。
Yeah.
我们去看看。
Let's see.
在那儿。
It's there.
我的顶头上司简直高兴得尖叫起来，或者说是惊讶，因为我们发现这本书正摆在前窗展示区的正中央，被十几本书簇拥着。
My grandboss literally squeals with delight or maybe surprised because we found the book right in the center of the front window display nestled between about a dozen others.
天哪。
Oh my god.
在那儿。
It's there.
哦，摆在了显要的位置。
Oh, in a place of honor.
这看起来很棒。
This looks great.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
亚历克斯和我走进去。
Alex and I pop inside.
你好。
Hello.
而且
And
一开始，我们不清楚该去哪里拿一本买。
at first, it isn't clear where to actually grab a copy to buy.
窗台上只有一本。
There's only one in the window display.
我们得弄清楚我们在商店的哪个位置。
We gotta we gotta figure out where we are in the store.
在这里，书商们似乎对BISAC分类代码理解得更字面了一些。
Here, it seems, the booksellers took the BISAC code a little more literally.
要找到这本书，我们得走到商店后方最远的商业区。
To find the book, we have to go to the business section all the way in a back corner.
啊，找到了。
Ah, there it is.
好的。
Okay.
有点偏离常规路线。
A little off the beaten path.
但我们正好在视线水平高度，这很棒。
But we are right at eye level, so that's great.
你喜欢这个吗？
You love that?
我们希望能亲眼看到有人在店里遇到《Planet Money》这本书。
We're hoping to witness somebody encounter the Planet Money book in the wild.
所以亚历克斯和我假装在读其他书，同时偷偷瞄过路的人，看看有没有人会买这本书。
So Alex and I pretend to read other books while stealing glances at passersby to see if any of them might bite.
这里有点
It's a little
安静得有点无聊。
bit sleepy in here.
终于，
Finally,
天色渐晚。
the day is getting late.
我还没写完你现在正在听的这一集的脚本呢。
I still have to finish the script for the very episode you're listening to right now.
于是我拿起一本书，走到柜台前的书店店员那里。
So I grab a book and walk up to the bookseller at the counter.
我决定还是亲自来吧。
I've decided I just have to do it myself.
哦，好吧。
Oh, alright.
32.76美元。
$32.76.
我想我会买它。
I guess I'll go for it.
好的。
Alright.
这是《Planet Money》第一本书的销售声。
That's the sound of the first Planet Money book sale.
我觉得是的。
I think so.
是的。
Yeah.
我做到了。
I did it.
太棒了。
Sweet.
手捧着这本书，书页间夹着书签和收据，我不禁想起诺顿出版社的编辑汤姆·梅耶对我说过的一番话，关于此刻。
Holding the book in my hands with a bookmark and receipt tucked between the pages, I can't help but think of something Tom Mayer, the book's editor at Norton, said to me about this very moment.
尽管为把这本新书推向世界付出了如此多的努力，但一切仍无保障。
After all the effort that's gone into getting this new baby book out into the world, still nothing is guaranteed.
而此刻如此强烈。
And this moment is so intense.
就像戏剧首演前的夜晚。
It's like the night before a play opens.
我们不知道它会受到怎样的反响。
We don't know how it's gonna be received.
接下来会发生什么，很大程度上取决于观众。
And what happens next kind of depends on the audience.
他们会干脆不来看演出吗？
Will they skip the show altogether?
他们会挤满全场并起立鼓掌吗？
Will they pack the house and leap to a standing ovation?
我们完全不知道。
We have no idea.
那么，《Planet Money》这本书最终能登上卡迈克尔书店或麦克纳利杰克逊书店那神圣的畅销书架吗？
So will the Planet Money book end up earning a place on the hallowed bestseller bookshelf at Carmichael's bookstore or McNally Jackson?
还是它会带着期待的恐惧，沿着传送带滑入那传说中的纸浆粉碎机的利齿之中？
Or will it find itself writhing in anticipatory dread as it slides down a conveyor belt into the gnashing jaws of the proverbial pulping pit?
读者，只有你能决定。
Reader, only you can decide.
你对畅销书榜单究竟是如何运作的感到好奇吗？
Are you curious about how bestseller lists actually work?
想听听作者们是如何试图操纵榜单、让自己跻身畅销书之列的吗？
Want to hear about how authors have tried to game their way into bestseller status?
这将是《Planet Money》系列书籍的下一部分，几周内即将推出。
That is our next installment in the Planet Money book series, coming up in the next few weeks.
正如我们在其他节目中多次提到的，也许说得都让人厌烦了，Planet Money 正带着这本书展开全国巡演，或许会到你所在的城市。
As we've mentioned in other episodes, perhaps ad nauseam, Planet Money is taking this book on tour around the country, maybe to a city near you.
请访问 planetmoneybook.com 了解详情，或在任何销售点购买这本书，也许是在一艘游轮上。
Check it out at planetmoneybook.com or pick up a copy of the book wherever they are sold, maybe on a cruise ship.
本集由威尔拉·鲁宾制作，并得到艾玛·皮斯利的帮助。
This episode was produced by Willa Rubin with help from Emma Peaslee.
本集由杰西·江编辑，由西拉·华雷斯校对，由罗伯特·罗德里格斯负责音频制作。
It was edited by Jess Jiang, fact checked by Sierra Juarez, engineered by Robert Rodriguez.
亚历克斯·戈德马克，我的顶头上司，是我们节目的执行制片人。
Alex Goldmark, my grand boss, is our executive producer.
此外，我们最初是通过他们的 Substack 论坛了解到 Fisher Nash 的，那篇文章谈的是购书的经济学。
Also, we first learned about Fisher Nash through their Substack in a post about the economics of book buying.
他们的 Substack 非常出色。
The Substack is excellent.
这是一本关于图书世界的幕后日记，恰如其分地命名为《书商费舍尔》。
It's a behind the scenes diary of the world of books, appropriately titled Fisher the bookseller.
我们会在节目笔记中提供链接。
We'll link to it in our show notes.
我是亚历克谢·霍维茨加齐。
I'm Alexei Horwitzgazi.
这是美国国家公共电台。
This is NPR.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。