投资如何变得更具风险性（两个指标）

我们是怎么走到这一步的？

How did we get here?

这是我们在NPR一直在努力回答的问题。

That's a question we have been trying to answer a lot here at NPR.

我们在《Throughline》节目中探索全球历史。

We are exploring global histories on Throughline.

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We're hearing from national security experts on sources and methods.

我们正在通过《Planet Money》关注市场动态。

We're watching the markets with Planet Money.

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更多信息请访问+.npr.org。

Find out more at +.npr.org.

这里是NPR的《Planet Money》。

This is Planet Money from NPR.

嘿，瑞奇。

Hey, Ricky.

嘿，韦伦。

Hey, Waylon.

告诉我，如果你想投资100美元买苹果股票，但你只有50美元，你能怎么做？

Tell me, what could you do if you wanted to invest a $100 in Apple stock, but you only had $50?

哦，我知道答案。

Oh, I know the answer.

你说的是保证金交易。

You are talking about margin trading.

没错。

Absolutely.

我可以在我的券商那里开一个保证金账户，把我的50美元放进去，然后他们可以借给我另外50美元，当然，利率很高，然后我就可以买那只股票了。

I could set up a margin account with my brokerage firm, put my $50 in there, and then they could lend me the other $50, of course, at a very high interest rate, and then I could buy that stock.

我们来搞几笔日内交易吧。

Let's rip some day trades.

没错。

Absolutely

投资者们

Investors

现在美国股市的投资者们做了很多这样的保证金交易。

of The US stock market are making a lot of these margin trades these days.

总的借款金额达到了历史最高水平，超过了一万五千亿美元。

The total amount of borrowing is at an all time record level over $1,500,000,000,000.

这比一年前增长了50%。

That's up by 50% from a year ago.

哇。

Woof.

这杠杆可真不小。

That is a lot of leverage.

大家好，欢迎收听《金钱星球》。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.

我是韦伦·王。

I'm Waylon Wong.

我是里基·穆尔维。

And I'm Ricky Mulvey.

投资行为正在发生很大变化。

Investing behavior is changing a lot.

一方面，参与股市比以往任何时候都更容易。

On one hand, it's easier than ever to participate in the stock market.

这意味着更多人能分享财富增长的机会。

That means more people can share in wealth creation.

太好了。

Great.

理论上讲。

In theory.

另一方面，我们看到更多人承担更多风险。

On the other hand, we see more people taking more risks.

所以今天在节目中，当保证金交易出问题时，韩国股市因债务引发的崩盘给我们敲响了警钟。

So today on the show, when margin trading goes wrong, a debt fueled stock market crash in South Korea gives us a cautionary tale.

还有，体育博彩能算是一种投资吗？

And can sports betting be an investment?

这是对赌博的一种日益增长的观点。

This is a growing view of gambling.

我们有数据说明结果如何。

We have the data on how that works out.

美国券商处的保证金债务总额现在超过了美国信用卡债务总额。

The amount of margin debt at US brokerages is now greater than the total amount of American credit card debt.

借来炒股的钱比我们在美国运通卡上欠的债还多。

More money is being borrowed to play with the stock market than we've racked up on our Amex's.

用别人的钱赚钱当然好。

And making profits with other people's money is great.

问题在于市场下跌的时候。

The problem is when markets go down.

你还是得还那笔贷款和利息。

You still have to cover that loan and the interest.

如果股价跌得太厉害，你有两个选择。

If the price of the stock goes down too much, you have two choices.

这位是希瑟·图克斯，耶鲁大学的金融学教授。

That's Heather Tukes, a finance professor at Yale.

你可以卖掉股票来开始还贷款，或者往你的保证金账户里注入更多资金，也就是追加保证金。

You can either sell the stock to start to pay down that loan or post more margin to your to your account that is infuse more capital into your margin account.

换句话说，希瑟说，要么追加现金，要么被迫卖出投资来还贷款。

In other words, Heather says, put up more cash or be forced to sell investments to cover the loan.

在美国，投资者几乎可以对任何股票使用保证金交易，但在印度情况不同。

In The US, investors can use margin trading for pretty much any stock, but it's different in India.

所以希瑟和她的合著者决定研究一下那里的保证金交易情况。

So Heather and her coauthor decided to take a look at how margin trades play out there.

在印度，监管机构在某种程度上对学者很友好，他们设计的规则让研究这个问题变得容易多了。

In India, the regulators were in some ways kind to academics and that they designed rules that made studying this question a lot easier.

更容易是因为在印度，可以用保证金购买的股票和不能用的股票之间有一条分界线。

Easier because there's a dividing line in India between stocks that can be bought with margin and others that can't.

她说这使它成为一个进行自然实验的好地方，用来研究保证金交易是否会导致市场不稳定。

She says that made it a great place for a natural experiment on whether margin trades cause market instability.

他们发现的结果是，是的，保证金确实重要，尤其是在金融危机期间。

And what they found was, yes, margin mattered, especially during a financial crisis.

正是在这些下跌期间，我们看到了这种放大效应。

It's during those downswings that we get this amplification.

在危机期间，保证金股票组合的下跌幅度远大于非保证金股票组合。

The margin basket of stocks went down significantly more than the basket of non margin stocks during the crisis.

许多保证金卖家被迫卖出他们的投资来偿还贷款。

Many margin sellers are forced to sell their investments to cover loans.

这种被迫卖出加剧了整体损失。

This forced selling helped amplify overall losses.

类似的现象刚刚在韩国股市也发生了。

A similar phenomenon just happened in the South Korean stock market.

那里的投资者对两家公司很感兴趣，SK海力士和三星。

Investors there are excited about two companies, SK Hynix and Samsung.

它们为AI数据中心生产存储芯片。

They make memory chips for AI data centers.

而且，你知道，就像你们在节目里报道过的，现在对这些芯片的需求很大。

And, you know, as you've covered on the show, lots of demand for these chips right now.

SK海力士和三星主导着韩国的股市。

SK Hynix and Samsung dominate South Korea's stock market.

随着更多投资者对它们的芯片感到兴奋，这两家公司的价值飙升。

The value of both companies skyrocketed as more investors got excited about their chips.

这个市场太大了，而且变化太快了。

This thing is so big and it's moving so fast.

那是富达投资的全球宏观总监尤里安·蒂默。

That's Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments.

半导体行业的盈利在过去一年里翻了三倍。

Semiconductor earnings have tripled in the last year.

真的，太疯狂了。

Like, it's it's crazy.

一切都像是在快进，而且比我们通常看到的繁荣萧条周期要复杂得多。

Everything is sort of in fast forward and is just multiple dimensions more of what we might typically see in in a boom bust cycle.

今年早些时候，韩国将单只股票的杠杆ETF合法化了。

Earlier this year, South Korea legalized single stock leveraged ETFs.

这些ETF从外表看和普通ETF没什么两样，但内部却加了杠杆、期货和各种金融手段，用来放大你的收益。

These look just like a normal ETF on the outside, except there's extra leverage, futures, and various other financial tricks on the inside to multiply your returns.

还能出什么差错呢？

What could possibly go wrong?

但也有不利的一面。

There's a downside.

如果ETF贬值，损失也会被放大。

Is that if the ETF loses value, the losses are also magnified.

其实，这类投资在美国自2022年起就已经合法了。

Now these investments have been legal in The US since 2022.

韩国想跟上步伐，所以投资者把钱投进了股市。

South Korea wanted to keep up, so investors cut money in its stock market.

随着半导体公司价值增长，这些ETF在韩国变得更受欢迎，有时占韩国交易所交易量的20%。

These ETFs became more popular in Korea as the value of those semiconductor companies grew, making up 20% of trading on the South Korean exchange on some days.

Yuri并不喜欢这些工具。

Yuri in is not a fan of these tools.

我称它们为自我毁灭的武器。

I call them weapons of self destruction.

我不知道为什么监管机构会批准这些东西。

I I don't know why regulators, approve these things.

至少从韩国的情况来看，他的悲观看法似乎是对的。

His pessimistic view seems to hold in Korea at least.

韩国股市市值一度暴跌40%。

The value of its stock market plummeted 40% at one point.

公司仍然预计对内存芯片的需求会激增，但投资者们没那么兴奋了。

The company still estimate booming demand for their memory chips, but investors got a little less excited.

杠杆押注开始解除，保证金交易者不得不卖掉他们的投资。

The leverage bets started to unwind and margin traders had to sell their investments.

超过3%的韩国成年人收到了追加保证金的通知。

More than 3% of the South Korean adult population received a margin call.

他们的经纪人说，嘿，你需要卖掉一些东西或者拿出更多现金来偿还这些贷款。

Their brokers saying, hey, you need to sell something or put up more cash to cover these loans.

这次抛售似乎与这些公司的未来前景关系不大。

The sell off seem to have little to do with the future prospects of these companies.

SK海力士过去一年的收入增长了两倍多，而且其芯片需求旺盛。

SK Hynix saw revenue more than triple over the past year, and it has plenty of demand for its chips.

你看看这些公司的基本面，它们非常出色。

You look at the fundamentals of these companies, they're they're fabulous.

你知道吗？

You know?

但问题在于你过度冒险了，当你使用杠杆时，你可能会损失全部资金。

But so it's just a matter of you're in over your skis, and when you use leverage, you can lose all your capital.

尤里基本上是在说，很多韩国投资者承担了太多风险，结果账户彻底爆掉了。

Yuri is essentially saying that many South Korean investors took on too much risk, which completely blew up their accounts.

高盛估计，大约有36万个券商账户被迫清仓所有投资来偿还债务。

Goldman Sachs estimated that about 360,000 brokerage accounts were forced to sell all of their investments to cover their debts.

花旗银行的数据显示，这些账户中大多数属于35岁以下的人。

The majority of these accounts belonged to people under the age of 35, according to Citibank.

年轻人觉得自己能承受高风险，但可能对金融市场经验不足。

Younger people felt confident taking on a lot of risk and maybe had less experience in financial markets.

受伤的就是这些人。

That's who got hurt.

那这对美国有没有什么启示呢？

Now is there a lesson for The United States?

就像我们之前讨论过的，现在美国的保证金债务水平创了纪录。

As we've discussed, we're seeing a record level of margin debt here.

但有意思的是——

But here's the interesting thing.

虽然一开始对杠杆ETF的兴趣不大，但过去几年里，兴趣突然飙升了。

While there was limited interest in leveraged ETFs initially, in the last couple of years, it spiked.

美联储对此可以有所作为，至少在保证金债务方面。

And the Federal Reserve can do something about this, at least when it comes to margin debt.

这家银行有一个鲜为人知的职责。

The bank has a little known job.

这家银行基本上告诉投资者，你需要有多少现金才能借到一美元。

The bank essentially tells investors how much money do you need in your pocket to borrow a dollar.

所以如果我们回到开头那个例子，如果你有50美元想投资苹果，但你想总共投资100美元，美联储可以说，好吧，我们应该更谨慎一些。

So if we go back to that example we started with, if you have $50 to invest in Apple and you wanna invest a $100 total, the Fed could say, okay, we should be more cautious.

你的券商可以借给你25美元，而不是50美元。

Your brokerage firm can loan you say $25, not $50.

在大萧条之后的几年里，美联储一直在调整这个要求。

The Federal Reserve played around with this requirement in the years after the Great Depression.

有趣的是，那次崩盘之前，保证金债务飙升，助长了泡沫。

Interestingly, that crash came after soaring margin debt fueled a bubble.

美联储现在应该介入吗？

Should the Fed get involved today?

这个问题更复杂。

This is more complicated.

是的。

Yes.

保证金债务处于历史高位，但数据显示其增长速度不如过去那么快。

Margin debt is at a historic level, but urine says it's not growing as fast as it has in the past.

当然，人们会想到2000年。

Of course, 2000 comes to mind.

那当然是互联网泡沫时期，当时保证金债务的增速达到了81%。

That was, of course, the Internet bubble, and the rate of change of margin debt then was 81%.

现在大约是40%。

Today, it's about 40%.

所以快得多。

So considerably faster.

尤里认为我们处于黄色区域，还没到恐慌的地步。

Yuri believes we are in a yellow zone, not a point of panic.

所以我才说，你不能只看市场情绪，基本面得先出点问题才行。

That's why I'm saying that you gotta look, you know, not just at the sentiment, but something has to crack in the fundamental story.

美联储自1974年以来就没动过这些投资贷款要求。

The Fed hasn't touched these investing loan requirements since 1974.

不过，我们还是在想，现在是不是重新审视这个要求、拿出这个几十年没用过的工具的好时机。

Still, we wondered if now was a good time to revisit this requirement and break out a tool it hasn't used in decades.

这会减缓股市新增债务的速度。

This would slow down the amount of new debt in the stock market.

我们联系了美联储的新闻办公室，但没人愿意公开接受采访。

We reached out to the Fed's press office but could not get anyone to speak to us on the record.

尤里和蒂默认为，美联储可能出于一个简单的原因不想插手保证金交易。

Yuri and Timmer believes the Fed may not wanna get involved with the margin trades for a simple reason.

我觉得美联储一般不会介入股市或泡沫的事，因为没人能预测这些东西。

I think the Fed generally does not get into the stock market slash bubble business to figure nobody can predict these things.

记住，格林斯潘在96年就特别指出纳斯达克是泡沫，但它又涨了四年。

Remember, Greenspan especially called the Nasdaq a bubble in '96, it ran for four more years.

所以，我觉得他们至少够谦虚，知道自己没法精准预测这些。

So, I think they're at least are humble enough to to know they they can't time these things.

发现泡沫正在形成很容易。

Spotting a bubble forming is easy.

但预测它什么时候破裂就难多了。

Timing the pop is much more difficult.

你不想在一场还能热闹一阵的派对上提前叫停。

You don't wanna shut down a party that could keep rocking for a while.

韦伦，是的。

Waylon Yes.

这周末的UFC比赛结果我特别有信心。

Feel really confident about the outcome of a UFC fight this weekend.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

不过，我口袋里只有20美元。

However, I only have $20 in my pocket.

所以我在想

So I was wondering

Polymarket能借你这笔钱吗？

Can Polymarket lend you this money?

我

I'm

不借

not lending

你钱包里有多少钱

How much money do you have in your wallet

现在？

right now?

韦兰银行。

The Bank of Weyland.

我不带现金。

I don't carry cash.

休息之后，我们来聊聊一项新研究，看看有多少年轻人把体育博彩当作投资，以及某个州政府是如何开始设置防护栏的。

After the break, some new research on just how many young people think of sports betting as investing and how one state government is starting to put up guardrails.

现在投资和赌博之间的界限变得模糊了。

The line between investing and gambling is blurry now.

接下来这个故事，我要和我的搭档，来自《指标》节目的阿德里安·马一起聊。

With me for this next story, my cohost at The Indicator, Adrian Ma.

你听听这个。

Get this.

在过去一年里，超过一半的Z世代表示，他们把原本打算投资的钱用在了体育博彩上。

In the past year, more than half of Gen Z say they've taken dollars intended for investing and put it towards sports gambling.

你也能理解为什么体育博彩看起来像是轻松赚钱，因为很多体育博彩广告都宣传，只要小额存款就能获得几百美元免费投注。

And you can understand why sports betting seems like easy money when many sports betting commercials advertise hundreds of dollars in free bets just for making a small deposit.

所有客户在每场NBA季后赛中都能获得盈利加成。

All customers get a profit boost every NBA playoff game.

新客户只要花5美元，赢了就能拿到300美元的奖金投注。

A new customer spent $5 and get 300 in bonus bets if you win.

新客户只需5美元，立刻就能获得200美元的奖金投注。

New customers turn $5 into 200 instantly in bonus bets.

联邦对体育博彩的禁令八年前被废除了，我们现在才看到对年轻人的影响。

The federal ban on sports betting was struck down eight years ago, and we're just now learning the effects on younger people.

对一些人来说，体育博彩不仅仅是娱乐。

For some people, sports betting is more than entertainment.

他们想靠这个赚真钱。

They're trying to make real money with it.

最近一项调查显示，大约四分之一的Z世代认为体育博彩是一种高风险的投资策略，或者是一种加速实现某个目标的方式。

In a recent survey, about a quarter of Gen Z said they view sports betting as a high risk investment strategy or a way to accelerate some kind of goal.

Z世代指的是大约18到29岁的人。

Gen Z is anyone aged around 18 to 29.

我觉得，你知道，首先，这不好。

I think, you know, number one, it's not good.

那是丹·伊根，Betterment的行为科学与投资副总裁。

That's Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral science and investing at Betterment.

他们研究了不同代际与投资和赌博之间的关系。

They studied the relationship different generations have with investing and gambling.

我们刚才听到的一些数字就来自他们最近的民调。

And we got some of the numbers you heard from their recent poll.

我有朋友喜欢收集汽车，但他们很坦诚，那辆车他们并不赚钱。

I have friends who like, I don't know, collecting cars, but they're honest about the fact that that car, they're not making money on it.

那只是爱好。

It's a hobby.

他们乐在其中。

They enjoy it.

他们喜欢看那辆车。

They enjoy looking at the car.

我觉得危险的是，当我们开始把爱好误当成投资的时候。

I think the dangerous aspect is when we start confusing our hobbies for investing.

丹说，Z世代这么多人把投资的钱拿去赌博，原因之一就是过度自信。

Dan says one reason why so many members of Gen Z are using investing dollars for gambling is overconfidence.

比如，我看了很多篮球比赛。

Like, I watch a ton of basketball.

我能看出谁是赢家。

I can spot a winner.

而且，一些年轻一代的人觉得这个经济体系对他们不利。

And also, some people in younger generations feel this economy just isn't working for them.

所以，我觉得其中一个驱动因素是，要想出人头地，光靠做好本职工作、定期储蓄、专注事业是不够的，我必须得在财务上大赢几把。

So So I think that's one of the drivers is the idea that in order to get ahead, like doing my job, saving regularly, and focusing on my career isn't gonna be enough, I have to have some big financial wins.

但这并不是普遍情况。

But this isn't true across the board.

你是Z世代吗？

Are you Gen Z?

是的。

Yes.

山姆·马斯卡拉是一位27岁的密歇根大学准博士生。

Sam Mascarra is a 27 year old incoming PhD student at the University of Michigan.

需要说明的是，他比我小三岁，所以我们说的可不是什么外星人群体，阿德里安。

And to be clear, he is three years younger than me, so we are not talking about an alien population here, Adrian.

山姆以前经常赌篮球，他看到那些广告说只要存一点点钱就能得到几百美元的免费投注。

Sam used to bet on basketball, and he saw the ads promising hundreds of dollars in free bets for just a small deposit.

山姆的一个同事跟他说，嘿。

And one of Sam's coworkers said, hey.

如果你注册一个体育博彩账户，我也能拿到奖励。

If you sign up for a sports betting account, then I get a reward too.

所以他就说，如果你加入的话，现在有个促销活动。

So he was like, if you join, there's this promotion going on.

我以为也就是五美元的事。

And I figured it was, like, $5.

NBA季前赛刚开始，所以我想试试也无妨。

The NBA preseason was just starting, so I figured it'd be something to try.

这怎么感觉像是一部即将上映的课后特别节目？

Why does this feel like a after school special in the making?

萨姆说，他几乎用过所有有奖励的平台。

Sam says he'd used just about any platform that had a bonus.

BetMGM、FanDuel，甚至还有老版的ESPN平台。

BetMGM, FanDuel, even the old ESPN platform.

他说他从来不会下超过自己承受能力的赌注，但他担心比他更年轻的一代，也就是阿尔法一代。

And he says that he never bet more money than he was willing to lose, but worries about people even younger than him, Gen Alpha.

他教过高中生。

He taught high schoolers.

我见过经济困难的学生。

I was seeing economically disadvantaged students.

他们会跟我说，这赌注很容易赢，或者说这是轻松赚钱的方法。

Like, they would tell me, like, this is an easy bet or, like, this is, like, an easy way to make money.

他说有些学生会找成年人帮他们注册体育博彩账户，然后开始下注。

He says that some students would find an adult to sign them up for a sports betting account and start playing.

这些孩子才16岁。

These are 16 year old kids.

他们根本没有自制力，做不到只花促销的钱。

They did not have the self control to say, I'll only use the promotion money.

我听到孩子们跟我说，他们像随便一场篮球比赛就押上自己200美元。

I'd hear kids talking to me like they're putting up, like, $200 of their money on a random, like, basketball game.

需要说明的是，我们这里说的是体育博彩公司，比如FanDuel和DraftKings，不是预测市场。

And to be clear, we're just talking about the sports books here, like FanDuel and DraftKings, not prediction markets.

那是另一回事。

That's a slightly different beast.

我们还报道过像Polymarket和Kalshi这样的预测市场如何向弱势人群做广告。

And and we've reported on how prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can advertise to vulnerable people.

你可以在节目笔记里找到相关链接。

You can find a link to that in the show notes.

州政府开始对体育博彩的负面影响，比如成瘾，做出反应了。

State governments are starting to react to the negative effects of sports betting, like addiction.

科罗拉多州刚通过了一项新法律，为体育博彩公司制定了新规。

Colorado just passed a new law that introduced new rules for sports betting companies.

比如，不能再使用信用卡存款了。

For example, no more depositing money with a credit card.

如果你想赌博，就不能借钱。

If you wanna gamble, you can't take out debt.

马特·鲍尔是科罗拉多州的民主党州参议员。

Matt Ball is a democratic state senator in Colorado.

他和共和党同事拜伦·佩尔顿共同提出了这项法案。

He cosponsored the bill with a republican colleague, Byron Pelton.

马特说，他并不是要禁止体育赌博。

Matt says he's not banning sports gambling.

事实上，他自己也赌过。

In fact, he's gambled himself.

我以前也下注过体育比赛。

I've bet on sports before.

我当梦幻联赛的专员大概有十五年了。

I've been the commissioner of a fantasy league for about fifteen years.

但他看到了Z世代，特别是年轻男性，在赌博方面的问题。

But he sees issues with Gen Z and gambling, specifically young men.

有几个选民来找他谈过这件事。

A couple of constituents came to talk with him about it.

这引发了很多对话，你知道，从那些儿子从大学回家、一晚上刷了15000美元信用卡的母亲，到研究问题赌博的全国专家，都有。

And that led to a lot more conversations with, you know, everyone from mothers who had sons come home from college having put, you know, $15,000 on the credit card in one night to national experts in problem gambling.

马特担心体育博彩成为一个公共健康问题。

Matt is worried about sports betting as a public health issue.

问题赌博与更多的破产、贷款违约、家庭暴力和自杀有关。

And problem gambling is associated with more bankruptcies, loan defaults, domestic violence, and suicides.

所以马特和拜伦的大想法是，增加一些障碍。

So Matt and Byron's big idea, add some friction.

限制体育博彩公司接触客户的方式。

Limit the ways that sportsbooks can reach their customers.

科罗拉多州成为第一个允许体育博彩的州，禁止体育博彩公司向客户发送手机推送通知和短信。

Colorado became the first state where sports betting is allowed to ban sportsbooks from sending customers push notifications on their phones and text messages.

提醒就像，嘿。

Reminders like, hey.

看起来有场比赛正在进行。

Looks like a game is on.

想下注吗？

Wanna bet?

他们法律的另一部分是限制客户一天内的存款次数。

Another part of their law is limiting the number of deposits that a customer can make in a single day.

现在这个数字是六次。

That number is now six.

起初，我觉得这听起来有点疯狂。

And at first, I thought this sounded kind of nuts.

客户总是可以转到另一家体育博彩公司，找到绕过的方法。

Customers can always move to another sports book, find ways around it.

但马特解释了为什么他想限制赌徒一天内往账户里加钱的次数。

But Matt explained why he wanted to limit the number of times gamblers could add money to their accounts in just one day.

当你有问题的时候，你可能会设定一个预算。

When you have a problem, you might set a budget.

我有100美元。

I've got a $100.

我打算这个周末把它押上。

I'm gonna bet it this weekend.

你输光了那笔钱。

You blow through that.

嘿，我得把钱赢回来。

Hey, I gotta make it back.

你存了200美元。

You deposit $200.

你又输光了。

You lose that.

你再存400美元。

You deposit $400.

你就一直追着亏损跑。

You just keep chasing your losses.

我们想衡量的一件事是，这到底有多有效？

One thing that we wanna measure is how effective is that?

马特说，最终这项法案是一次试验。

And Matt says ultimately, this bill is a test.

存款限额真的会有作用吗？

Would a deposit limit even make a difference?

我第一个承认，我们没有任何数据。

I'd be the first to admit we don't have any data.

所以从某种意义上说，我们有点在猜测。

So in some sense, like, we're kinda guessing here.

阿德里安，你很少听到立法者直接说我们制定法律时有点靠猜。

You rarely hear lawmakers just say we're kind of guessing with a law, Adrian.

我觉得这恰恰说明了这个情况有多新颖。

I mean, I guess it speaks to just how novel this situation is.

他们写法案有点像在乱试，什么都往上扔。

They're kind of taking the spaghetti at the wall approach to bill writing.

马特和拜伦的法案是罕见的跨党派共识，想为实际问题找些解决办法。

Matt and Byron's bill is a rare bipartisan agreement to find some solutions for a real problem.

我们接触了各种人，有关心心理健康和孩子的组织，也有宗教右翼团体，他们对赌博有根本性的反对，其中一些团体在2019年就反对过赌博合法化。

We had everyone from, you know, organizations that care about mental health and care about kids to, you know, groups on the religious right who have a, you know, fundamental objection to gambling, who were some of the same groups that opposed the legalization of gambling back in 2019.

科罗拉多州今年夏天签署了这项法案，马特说其他州的立法者已经开始联系他了。

Colorado signed the bill into law this summer, and Matt says legislators in other states are starting to reach out to him.

至少有10个其他州不像科罗拉多那样允许赌客用信用卡存款，而且这个数字还在增加。

At least 10 other states don't allow betters to make deposits with a credit card like Colorado, a number that's growing.

来自Betterment的丹·伊根，那个行为金融专家，他说可能还有另一个乐观的角度。

Dan Egan from Betterment, the behavioral finance guy, he says there may be another optimistic angle.

我觉得每一代人都生活在新的环境中，这和他们那个年龄时上一代人的环境不同。

I feel like every generation lives in a new context that was different than the previous one's context when they were that age.

而且很有可能我们看到的只是一个关于人们如何接触这些东西的新成长故事。

And it's entirely possible what we're seeing is just a new coming of age story about how people engage with this stuff.

随着几代人逐渐长大，他们可能会意识到体育博彩不是轻松赚钱的方式，也不是什么投资策略。

As generations grow older, they may realize that sports betting is not easy money or any kind of investment strategy.

Dan 提到了股票市场日内交易的研究，你可以说这和赌博很接近。

Dan pointed a research on day trading in the stock market, which you could argue is adjacent to gambling.

比如，交易者试图从市场的快速波动中赚钱。

Like, traders are trying to make money from quick swings in the market.

研究发现，大多数日内交易者通常在亏损几年后就会放弃。

The research found that most day traders generally quit after losing money for a couple of years.

也许这是一次昂贵的教育，但希望他们会学到东西。

Maybe it's an expensive education, but hopefully they will learn.

持续亏钱会让人厌倦，而且一些年轻一代的人已经明白了这个道理，不用亏钱就能懂。

Losing money consistently can get old, and some people in younger generations already understand the game without losing money.

比如 Sam，我们之前提到的那个 Z 世代体育博彩玩家。

Like Sam, our former Gen Z sports gambler.

他说他拿了

He says he took

那些促销的钱，下注了几场比赛，然后就提现了。

the promotion money, bet on some games, and then cashed out.

不过我从来没花过自己的钱去赌。

I never bet any of my own money, though.

我觉得那是个陷阱，我不想陷进去。

That felt like good trap that I didn't wanna get into.

我大概赢了一千多美元吧。

I won probably over, like, a thousand dollars.

也不是特别夸张，但确实挺有意思的。

Not anything like crazy, but it's still, like, it was fun.

一千美元什么时候不算多了？

Since when is a thousand dollars not a lot of money?

我觉得一千块能让我玩得很开心。

I feel like I could have some fun with a grand.

不，瑞奇。

No, Ricky.

别掉进那个陷阱。

Don't fall into the trap.

拿着奖金就跑。

Take the bonus and run.

想要获得更多《金钱星球》内容，或者把它推荐给需要的朋友，最好的方式就是我们的书。

A great way to get more Planet Money or give Planet Money to a friend who needs it is our book.

书里有一整章专门讲怎么思考投资。

It has a whole chapter on how to think about investing.

这本书就是《金钱星球》，一本关于塑造你生活的经济力量的指南。

It is Planet Money, a guide to the economic forces that shape your life.

感谢所有给这本书打分和写评论的人。

Thanks to everyone who rated it and reviewed it.

请继续支持我们。

Please keep that up.

如果你还没订阅Planet Money的每日播客The Indicator，今天的节目最初就是在那上面播出的。

And if you don't already subscribe to Planet Money's daily podcast, The Indicator, that's where today's episodes first appeared.

每天用不到十分钟，讲透一个经济小知识。

One slice of the economy explained every day in ten minutes or less.

快来关注Planet Money的The Indicator吧。

Follow The Indicator from Planet Money.

今天The Indicator from Planet Money的节目由Corey Bridges和Cooper Katz-McKim制作，Travis Hagan和Cena Loffredo负责工程，Sierra Juarez负责事实核查。

Today's episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money were produced by Corey Bridges and Cooper Katz-McKim, engineering by Travis Hagan and Cena Loffredo, was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

Julia Ritchey编辑了我们关于赌博的报道。

Julia Ritchey edited our story on gambling.

Kate Concannon负责编辑The Indicator。

Kate Concannon edits the Indicator.

这期Planet Money节目由Jade Snead制作。

This episode of Planet Money was produced by Jade Snead.

Alex Goldmark是我们的执行制作人。

Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

我的搭档是出色的韦伦·王和了不起的阿德里安·马。

My cohosts were the wonderful Waylon Wong and the amazing Adrian Ma.

我是里基·马尔维。

I'm Ricky Mulvey.

这里是NPR。

This is NPR.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.