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NPR这个网络一直以来都依靠它所服务的听众支撑，而不是股东或特殊利益集团，而是像你我这样相信新闻自由与独立的人。
The NPR network has always been powered by the people it serves, not by shareholders or special interests, but by people like you and me who believe in a free and independent press.
我们刚刚迎来国会取消公共媒体联邦拨款满一年的节点。
We just passed the one year mark since congress eliminated federal funding for public media.
请在本月底之前前往 donate.npr.org 捐赠支持。
Please make your gift before the end of the month at donate.npr.org.
这是来自NPR的《金钱星球》。
This is Planet Money from NPR.
欢迎回来，各位，来到《金钱星球》夏日学校全球巡讲，这是唯一一个‘看不见的手’指向登机口的国际经济学课程。
Welcome back, everyone, to Planet Money summer school world tour, the only international economics degree where the invisible hand points to the departure gate.
现在是最后登机通知。
It's the final boarding call.
赶紧跑吧。
Better run.
我是罗伯特·史密斯。
I'm Robert Smith.
这个夏天，我们踏上了一段旅程，想看看其他国家有哪些经验，能为我们自己的生活带来启发。
This summer, we are on a quest to find lessons we can learn from other countries that just might work back here where we live.
每期节目，我们都会带来生动的案例，还有一位恰好拥有经济学学位的本地向导。
In each episode, we'll have fascinating case studies and a hometown tour guide that also happens to have a degree in economics.
今天的目的地是肯尼亚，一个小镇，它向全世界展示了一种更棒的经济做法。
Our destination today, Kenya, specifically a small town that taught the world a better way to do economics.
我们还会顺道去尼日利亚，那里的人想出了一个新颖的办法，用免费资金来扶持小企业。
We'll also have a stopover in Nigeria where they've come up with a novel way to grow small businesses, free money.
效果真的不错。
It works.
一路上记得多记点笔记。
Just make sure you take notes along the way.
我们提到的任何内容，都可能出现在期末考试里——到时候，你这位旅行达人就能拿到一张满是护照章的纪念文凭。
Anything we mention might appear on the final exam, which will allow you, traveler extraordinaire, to get a souvenir diploma festooned with all the passport stamps.
帮我们办理入境手续的是来自麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院的塔夫尼特·苏里教授。
Helping us through customs in Nairobi is Tavneet Suri, a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management.
你好。
Hi.
能来这里真好。
It's nice to be here.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
你是第五代肯尼亚人吗？
You are fifth generation Kenyan?
严格来说是第四代。
Technically fourth.
这要看你怎么算。
It depends how you count.
我家人是十九世纪末跟着英国人从印度搬来的，当时英国人带了一大批人来修路和建铁路。
You know, my family moved from India in the late eighteen hundreds with the British, and the British took a bunch of people to build roads and railways in that part of the world.
每次想到他们修完路和铁路后，居然还问这些人：你们想回去了吗？我都觉得特别不可思议。
Always amazes me that when they got done with roads and railways, they asked them, do you wanna go back?
他们说，不回去。
And they said, no.
我们就留在这儿了。
We'll just stay.
我倒是去过那儿。
Well, I mean, I I've been there.
那地方真的很美。
It is a lovely place.
这我完全能理解。
It's understandable.
但夏令营在尼日利亚和肯尼亚停办，原因并不是这个。
But but that is not why summer school is stopping in Nigeria and in Kenya.
停办是因为在那里，经济学不是纸上谈兵。
It's stopping there because this is a place where economics isn't just theory.
那是实实在在的生活。
It's real life.
到处都是生意。
There is commerce everywhere.
每条街上都有几百人卖着各种东西，作为商学院教授，你得明白这一点。
Hundreds of people on each block selling different things, and you must appreciate this as a business school professor.
到处都是现成的案例。
There are so many case studies around.
你知道吗，回到任何一个非洲城市，我都特别开心。
You know, I love being back in almost any African city.
我总感觉这些城市有种独特的氛围。
I always feel there's a vibe to them that's quite different.
街上人来人往。
There's people on the streets.
人人都在想办法卖点什么。
There's people trying to sell something.
有人赶着上公交，想去哪儿，干点啥。
There's people trying to jump on a bus, go somewhere, do something.
你就能清清楚楚地看到，这一切背后全是创业精神。
You can kinda see the entrepreneurship of all of this right in front of you.
对吧？
Right?
当你意识到，像尼日利亚这样的地方，和世界上大多数地方不一样，人口还在快速增长时，这一点就显得尤为重要了。
And this becomes so much more important when you realize that unlike most of the world, places like Nigeria are still rapidly growing in population.
我觉得到2050年，尼日利亚的人口会超过美国。
I I think by 2050, Nigeria will have more people than The United States.
所以，你面对的是一个充满活力、持续增长的国家，年轻人众多，未来很可能在全球经济中占据更大份额。
So you have this vibrant, growing country with with lots of young people that could become a lot larger part of the global economy.
没错。
Absolutely.
再加上非洲的年龄结构，青年人口数量极其庞大。
And with their demographics, sort of the number of youth on the African Continent is extremely large.
到2050年，全球18到25岁的年轻人中，有百分之三十五都会在非洲。
By twenty fifty, thirty five percent of the youth, think 18 25 year olds, is gonna be in Africa.
对吧？
Right?
所以将来这里会拥有庞大的劳动力。
And so it will be a place where there'll be a large labor force at some point.
换句话说，这正是经济学学生考察旅行的绝佳目的地——不仅关乎全球经济的未来，更是新创意的孵化器。
In other words, the perfect place to stop for economic students on a tour, not only the future of the global economy, but an incubator for new ideas.
今天我们要聊的就是这个。
That's what we're gonna hear about today.
如何让人口更富裕、更健康，让更多企业涌现，创造更多就业机会。
Ways to have a richer, healthier population with more businesses and more jobs.
听起来不错。
Sounds great.
首先，我们会介绍尼日利亚的一个项目，它把《鲨鱼坦克》和彩票结合在一起，试图解决创业难题。广告后，我们的商学院教授会为我们详细解析。
First up, we will take a look at a program in Nigeria that tries to solve that business part of the equation by creating a mashup of Shark Tank and the lottery, and we'll have our business school professor break it all down for us after our break.
本节目由Wise赞助播出，全球理财的明智之选。
This message comes from Wise, the smart way to manage your money around the world.
用Wise，你可以以中间汇率在40多种货币之间转账、消费和收款。
With Wise, you can send, spend, and receive money in over 40 currencies at the mid market rate.
了解更多，请访问wise.com。
Learn more at wise.com.
条款细则适用。
Ts and Cs apply.
《It's Been a Minute》这档NPR的文化时事播客，每期开头都会问三个问题。
Every episode of It's Been a Minute, NPR's What's Happening in Culture podcast starts by asking three questions.
是谁？
Who?
怎么发生的？
How?
为什么是现在？
Why now?
只要文化在讨论，我们就跟进。
If the culture's asking it, we're talking about it.
在NPR，我们支持你保持好奇，尽情探索文化议题。
At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and indulge your cultural curiosity.
在你常用的播客平台关注《It's Been a Minute》，我们会帮你解读那些刷爆你动态的热门话题。
Follow it's been a minute wherever you get your podcasts, and we'll break down the zeitgeisty topics that are filling your feed.
同学们，听好了。
Okay, students.
这次参观途中，大家一定要跟紧队伍。
Stay together on this tour.
所以我才举着这个大的Planet Money旗帜。
That's why I have this big Planet Money flag.
我们又回来了，这是Planet Money暑期课堂，正前往肯尼亚，途中会在尼日利亚的阿布贾停一站。
We are back with Planet Money summer school on our way to Kenya, but with a stopover in Abuja, Nigeria.
图夫尼特·苏里教授也和我们同行。
Professor Tavneet Suri is along for the ride.
教授，学生们在听这个首个案例时，该重点关注哪些方面？
Professor, what should our students think about as they listen to this very first case study?
好的。
Okay.
想象一下，你是一家小企业，而且你有很多好点子。
Imagine you're a small business, and imagine you have great ideas.
当然。
Of course.
但你要想把这些点子实现，得需要一大笔钱。
But you need a bunch of money to sort of build out these ideas.
你会去找谁筹钱呢？
Who would you go to for that money?
你会去银行吗？
Would you go to a bank?
你会去找风险投资机构吗？
Would you go to a venture capital fund?
你会不会尝试通过别的途径来筹钱？
Would you go try and raise money through some other means?
那你该怎么弄到这笔钱呢？
How would you get that money?
好问题，这也是尼日利亚小企业面临的问题，当时政府想出了一个非常巧妙的解决方案。
Great question and the same question faced by small businesses in Nigeria where the government came up with a very clever solution.
有位经济学家曾说，这会不会是历史上最成功的扶贫项目？
As one economist said, quote, is this the best development program in history?
作为学生，你来判断吧。
As a student, you decide.
《Planet Money》的亚历克斯·戈德马克和诺埃尔·金为我们讲述这个故事。
Planet Money's Alex Goldmark and Noel King tell us the story.
2011年，劳瑞特·哈桑在尼日利亚阿布贾经营一家油漆生意。
In 2011, Laureate Al Hassan had a paint business in Abuja, Nigeria.
她卖的是家用油漆。
She sold house paint.
她也卖工业用油漆。
She sold industrial paint.
她还卖有纹理的涂料。
She sold textured paint.
她卖的那种涂料能填平墙上的裂缝。
She sold paint that fills in the cracks in your wall.
这家公司叫Larklux涂料，规模特别小。
The paint company was called Larklux paint, and it was really, really small.
我当时的员工就只有我自己。
The employee I had was just me.
我负责生产管理。
I was the production manager.
我负责市场推广。
I was the marketer.
我负责送货。
I was the delivery person.
除了安保，其他所有活儿我都干。
I was everything except the security.
整个公司就她和一个保安。
That was the whole company, her and a security guard.
公司太小是个问题，客户试了她的油漆后都说：这效果真不错。
And being so small was a problem because customers would try out her paint, they would say, this seems great.
我想下个大订单。
I wanna place a big order.
要不我到你办公室来，咱们把合同签了？
How about I come down to your office and we'll sign the papers?
这就尴尬了，因为她根本没办公室。
Which is where things would get awkward because she didn't have an office.
我每次都跟他们说：不行。
And I kept telling them, no.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
你随时都可以给我打电话。
You call me whenever you want.
我就在那儿等着。
I I will just be there.
我会在那儿等你。
I will be there.
她只有自己的车。
She just had her car.
客户一看见这个，就会说：不好意思。
And when clients would see that, they would say, I'm sorry.
然后他们就打退堂鼓了。
And that's when they would back out.
她需要办公室来留住客户，可又得靠客户才能负担得起办公室。
She needed the office to keep the clients, but she needed the clients to be able to afford the office.
她觉得自己被困住了，走投无路。
She felt trapped, stuck.
然后有一天，我在家听着一点音乐。
And then one day, was at home listening to a little music.
音乐总能帮我很多。
Music has a way of helping me a lot.
我房间里有个小收音机，一直用它来平复情绪。
So I had this little radio in my room then that I would always listen to to help me get over my emotions.
就放在我的床头。
It was at my bedside.
那天我正听着，突然播了个通告。
So I was listening to it, there was this announcement.
广告一出来，感觉电台就像在直接对她说话。
This ad comes on, and it was like the radio was talking right to her.
广告讲的是一个帮助小企业成长的项目。
It was an ad for what seemed to be some sort of program to help small businesses grow bigger.
现在可能还小，但加入UWIN之后就不一样了。
It may be small today, but it would be after UWIN.
青年创业与创新大赛UWIN是由联邦政府发起的一项全国性就业促进计划，旨在帮助尼日利亚年轻人成长。
The youth enterprise and innovation competition, UWIN is a nationwide jobs creation project organized by the federal government to empower young Nigerians, and it is
政府当时搞了一个全国性的比赛，给想创业的人发放数百万美元的奖金。
The government was having a nationwide contest where it would be giving away millions of dollars to people trying to start businesses.
不需要任何经验，也没有附加条件，只要上网站注册就行。
No experience necessary, no strings attached, just go to the website and sign up.
Lariat听到这个广告，立刻就明白了这是怎么回事。
Lariat heard this ad and she knew immediately what it was.
这是个骗局。
A scam.
没错。
Okay.
那个广告不是骗局。
So that ad, not a scam.
我见过背后做这件事的人。
I met the person behind it.
我叫恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦拉。
My name is Ngozi Okonjo Iwala.
大家通常叫她恩戈齐博士，当时她是尼日利亚的财政部长。
She goes by doctor Ngozi, and she was the finance minister for Nigeria at the time.
她放眼一看，发现最大的问题就是失业。
She looked out and she was facing this big problem, unemployment.
尼日利亚有八百万年轻人急需工作。
There are 8,000,000 young people in Nigeria who need jobs.
这相当于所有青年群体的四分之一。
That's like a quarter of all youth.
但这些年轻人特别有干劲。
But the thing about those young people is they are super go getters.
对吧？
Right?
每个人都想自己创业，还想把生意做大。
Everybody wants to run something, and they want to expand their businesses.
有人想创业，但不知道从哪儿开始。
Someone to create new businesses but don't know how.
他们碰上了一堵墙——钱。
They're hitting this wall, money.
他们需要更多的资金。
They need more of it.
问题是，在尼日利亚，想申请一笔小企业贷款真的很难。
But the thing is, it's really hard to get a small business loan in Nigeria.
你可能去银行试一试。
Maybe you go to a bank and you try.
但你得站在银行的角度想想。
But think about it from the point of view of the bank.
这些生意大多就一个人在干。
Most of these businesses are one person.
规模太小了，银行很难分辨哪家个体油漆店靠谱，哪家不靠谱。
They're really small, and it's hard for a bank to tell a good one person paint company from a bad one person paint company.
她想，既然这些创业者最缺的是钱，那我们直接给他们钱不就行了？
She thought, since what these entrepreneurs need is money, why don't we just give them money?
找一些小生意，然后把一大笔现金直接交到他们手上。
Just find tiny businesses and then hand them piles of cash.
假如你给卖油漆的拉里亚特五万美元，会怎么样？
What if you gave Lariat, the woman who sells paint, $50,000?
这可不是一笔小数目。
That's a lot of money.
这差不多是拉里亚特平时一年收入的十倍。
That's about 10 times what Lariat would normally make in a year.
于是，诺齐医生把这个想法带到了尼日利亚政府内部，四处推广。
So doctor Ngozi takes this idea, and she starts shopping it around within the Nigerian government.
结果一提出来，马上就有人提出疑问。
And right away, some questions come up.
我们怎么监督这些人？
How will we monitor these people?
我们怎么确保他们不会被忽略掉？
How how will we make sure they don't fall by the wayside?
他们拿了钱，可能就挪作他用了。
They just get the money and divert it to some other use.
如果银行连把钱发给小企业都这么困难，
If banks have
政府又怎么确定该把钱给谁呢？
a tough time handing out the money to small businesses, how is the government gonna decide which are the right people to hand it out to?
恩戈齐医生说，别担心。
Doctor Ngozi says, don't worry.
别担心。
Don't worry.
我们是这么安排的。
Here's how we're gonna do it.
我们要办一场全国性的比赛。
We're gonna have a contest, a massive nationwide contest.
任何人只要想参加，都可以提交一份商业计划书，几张纸写上点子、预算，再配上一两张图表就行。
Anyone who wants to can submit a business plan, a few sheets of paper with an idea, a budget, a chart or two.
我们会认真阅读每一份计划。
And we'll read them.
挑出最优秀的，然后把这笔笔资金发下去。
We'll pick out the best ones, and we'll hand out those piles of cash.
尼日利亚总统乔纳森，人挺不错，他很喜欢这个主意。
The president of Nigeria, good luck, Jonathan, he liked the idea.
他说，你们去把这事办了。
And he said, go figure it out.
过程中遇到了不少困难。
There were a lot of challenges.
首先，这是个连政府都很难保证电力稳定供应的国家。
First off, this is a country where the government has a hard time even keeping the electricity on.
现在却要审核成千上万份商业计划。
And now they're gonna vet tens of thousands of business plans.
就连尼日利亚政府内部的人也在想，这事儿到底怎么才能做成？
Even people within the Nigerian government were thinking, how are we gonna pull this off?
物流问题已经够头疼了，更麻烦的是腐败。
The logistics were gonna be one problem, but then there was this other problem, corruption.
在尼日利亚，腐败并不是什么新鲜事。
Corruption is not unheard of in Nigeria.
那怎么确保负责评审的官员不会把钱都给自己的熟人、朋友和家人？
So how do you make sure that the officials running the contest don't just give the money to their connections, to their friends and family?
只有有关系的人才有机会，普通人根本没戏。
That only people who are connected get a chance, and ordinary people will not.
这才是大家更怀疑的地方。
That was the even bigger skepticism.
他们得想出一个公平发钱的办法，还得让这办法看起来公平。
They had to figure out a fair way to give out the money and a way that looked fair too.
他们找来了政府内外、甚至尼日利亚境外的评审员来打分，还决定把申请材料上的名字全部去掉，让评审员不知道申请人是谁。
They found judges outside of the government and outside of Nigeria to do the grading, and they decided also to take the names off of the application so the judges wouldn't know who was who.
但这样一来，问题还是没解决：该怎么
But that still left the question, how do
预测哪家企业会成功呢？
you predict which business will succeed?
钱该给谁？
Who do you give the money to?
这时候，他们请来了戴维·麦肯齐。
And this is where they brought in David McKenzie.
我的工作是在世界银行的研究团队，通常他们有了个想法，想知道能不能行，就会找我来帮忙。
My my job, I work in the research group at the World Bank, and so I sort of I typically come in when their people have got an idea and they wanna know, does it work?
麦肯齐想了个挺特别的办法来选优胜者。
Mackenzie had an interesting idea for how to pick the winners.
干脆随机选。
Just do it randomly.
他说，当然你可以看看他们的商业计划，挑出几个看起来不错的，把太差的淘汰掉。
Sure, he said, you can look at their business plans, maybe pick out the few that seem great, throw out the terrible ones.
但那之后，就直接随机选。
But after that, just pick at random.
所以，好吧，他们决定大量随机挑选赢家。
So, okay, they decide they're gonna pick a lot of the winners at random.
他们给这个比赛起了个名字，叫‘你赢了’比赛。
They gave the contest a name, the you win competition.
你赢了！
You win exclamation point.
他们开始着手
And they started to get the
通过广告广泛宣传。
word out with ads.
他们在全国范围内投放了广播和电视广告。
They blanketed the country with radio and TV ads.
我和大多数创业者一样。
I'm like most entrepreneurs.
我总是有远大的梦想，非常远大的梦想。
I dream big, Big.
但现实是……
But reality.
现实就是这样。
Reality.
但你知道吗？
But you know what?
尼日利亚那个叫‘你赢’的青年创新创业项目，彻底改变了我的人生。
The youth enterprise with innovation in Nigeria, you win, changed my story.
你赢。
You win.
那些广告遍布全国各地。
So those ads are all over the country.
还有劳瑞特·哈桑，就是我们之前见过的那个从车里卖油漆的女士，她正在听收音机。
And Laureate Al Hassan, that woman we met earlier who was selling paint out of her car, she's listening to the radio.
她躺在卧室里，那些广告一遍又一遍地在耳边响着。
She's in her bedroom, and she is hearing those ads over and over and over again.
我第一次听到的时候，没当回事。
I had it for the first time.
我第二次听到，还是没理。
I ignored it.
第三次又来了，
I had it the second time.
我依旧没在意。
I ignored it.
但第三次的时候，我心里有个声音说：拉里特，你为什么不抓住这个机会呢？
But the third time, something in me said, Lariat, why don't you pick up this opportunity?
试试吧。
Try.
去试试看。
Try and see.
这事儿说不定对你也管用。
It could work out for you.
她拿出了那台旧笔记本电脑。
She took out her old laptop.
她插上调制解调器，上了网，然后提交了申请。
She plugged in her modem, and she went online, and she applied.
有两万四千人也这么做了。
So did 24,000 other people.
结果，Lariat，她顺利通过了初选。
And, Lariat, she made the first cut.
于是她和另外六千人一起，被邀请进入下一阶段。
So she and 6,000 other people, they get invited to the next phase.
这时候，她得写出一份真正像样的商业计划书。
This is where she would have to write that real proper business plan.
Laureate 在这一环节得到了一些帮助。
Laureate got some help with this part.
政府把所有半决赛选手召集到一起，给他们安排了系统的商业培训。
The government called all of the semifinalists together, and they put them through these business trainings.
Laureate 说，她的培训场地就像一场爆满的演唱会现场。
Laureate says hers was like this big packed concert hall.
那里有各种各样的申请人。
There were all kinds of applicants.
有一位面包师，连像样的设备都没有。
There was a baker who didn't have the right kind of equipment.
还有一位养鸡的，说他想扩展业务，养鲶鱼和蜗牛。
A chicken farmer who said he wanted to expand into catfish and snail farming.
有个小伙子在经营一家电脑培训学校。
There was a guy running a computer school.
有音乐人，有牙医，各种背景的人都带着自己的创业点子来了。
There were musicians, dentists, all kinds of people with ideas for all kinds of businesses.
从早到晚，气氛紧张得不得了。
Boy, it was intense from morning till evening.
之后，莱拉特回家了。
Afterward, Lariat went home.
她起草了一份预算。
She drafted a budget.
她做了些销售预测。
She made some sales projections.
这是一份完整详尽的商业计划，完全按照培训中学到的那样做的。
This was a full comprehensive business plan just like she learned in the training.
没错。
And yep.
她是故事开头那个讨人喜欢的角色。
She's the likable character at
在她节目的开头。
the start of her show.
你早就能猜到会这样。
You knew it had to be coming.
她赢了。
She won.
我根本控制不住自己的情绪。
I felt I I I couldn't even control my emotions.
我跳到床上疯了好一会儿，直到我妹妹问我：你这是怎么了？
And I went jumping on my bed until my sister would say, what's wrong with you?
你中彩票了？
Have you won have you won a lottery?
我说，是的。
And I said, yes.
对。
Yes.
没错。
Yes.
Lariat拿到了一千万奈拉。
Lariat got 10,000,000 naira.
这大约是六万五千美元。
That is about $65,000.
这是一笔巨款。
And this is a huge amount of money.
超过她一年收入的十倍还多。
It's like more than 10 times what she would earn in a year.
她用这笔钱雇了几个人。
She used it to hire some people.
她请了一些销售人员。
She got some salespeople.
还招了几个做市场的人。
She got some marketing people.
她租了一个像样的展厅。
And she rented a proper showroom.
她精心布置了一些自己特别得意的家具。
She tricked it out with some furniture she was really proud of.
这一点毫无疑问，彻底改变了她的生意。
No doubt about it, this changed her business.
对。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
因为现在我可以很有信心地说：请来我的办公室吧。
Because I can confidently say now, please come to my office.
哦，我们以前的地方太差了。
Oh, we are in so so place.
哦，你现在可以来这儿了。
Oh, you can come here.
哦，什么时间合适？
Oh, what time?
哦，好的。
Oh, yes.
我到时候会准备好等你。
I'll be ready for you.
我会在这儿等你。
Oh, I'll be waiting for you.
现在你看看这个，自然就能明白，她确实做到了。
Now you can look at this and say, of course, she was able to do this.
她得到了六万五千美元。
She was given $65,000.
连一个人影都没有。
Not even alone.
直接给了她一筆錢。
Just gave her a pot of money.
真正的问题是，一年后、两年后，她的生意怎么样？
The real question is, how is her business doing a year from now, two years from now?
其他人又怎么样呢？
How do all the others do?
牙医和想转养鲶鱼的养鸡户
The dentists and the chicken farmer who wants to expand into catfish.
世界银行也关注了这个情况。
And the World Bank looked at this.
因为有些获奖者是随机选出来的，他们能像做真实实验一样来评估效果。
Because some of the winners had been chosen randomly, they could evaluate it like a real experiment.
他们可以对比拿到钱的人和没拿到钱的人。
They could compare people who got the money to people who didn't.
结果发表了，非常惊人。
The results were published, and they're pretty remarkable.
克里斯·布莱克曼是哥伦比亚大学的经济学家，研究如何帮助发展中国家的人摆脱贫困。
Chris Blackman is an economist at Columbia University who studies how to get people out of poverty in the developing world.
我读到的时候眼睛都瞪大了，又仔细重读了一遍，心想这不可能吧，然后深入看了细节。
I remember reading it in my eyes kind of popping out of my head, and then reading it a little bit more in-depth because I thought, no, no, no, this isn't possibly true, and getting into the details.
我太激动了，立马写了一篇博客贴出来。
And getting so excited, I just shot off a blog post right away.
他就是这样应对突如其来的喜悦的。
That's how he deals with unexpected joy.
报告里是这么说的。
Here's what the report said.
它研究了Lariat以及YouWin竞赛的另外1200位获奖者，发现他们一共创造了7000个工作岗位。
It looked at Lariat and the 1,200 other winners of the YouWin competition, and it found they had created 7,000 jobs.
是那种能长期保留下来的真实工作。
Real jobs that stuck around for years.
整个项目总共花了六千万美元。
So the whole thing, it cost $60,000,000.
算下来，每个岗位的成本是8500美元，这数字对别人来说可能没啥意义。
And that, do the math, comes out to a cost of $8,500 per job created, which may mean nothing to anybody else.
但对像克里斯·布拉特曼这样专门研究这些问题的人来说，这已经非常惊人了。
But to people who look at these things and study them like Chris Blattman, he says that is really impressive.
正因如此，他才把这当作自己博客文章的标题。
And that is why he picked this as the title of his blog post.
这是历史上最有成效的发展项目吗？
Is this the most effective development program in history?
问号。
Question mark.
布拉特曼说，最让他惊讶的是，这些获奖者整体上把钱用得相当好。
Blatman said the thing that stood out to him is that the winners, as a group, used the money pretty well.
尽管他们中的很多人都是单打独斗的小生意人，
Even though a lot of them were these one person businesses,
而且拿到的钱
and they got more money
可能是他们这辈子见过最多的。
than they'd probably ever seen in their whole life.
尽管很多人是随机选出来的，他本来以为会有更多人失败。
Even though a lot of them were picked kind of at random, he just expected that a lot more of them would fail.
我觉得， entrepreneurship 这种事其实没那么常见。
Like, I I I guess you I have this idea that entrepreneurship is a little bit more rare.
他们会在商业计划比赛中筛选人，整个过程有很多环节。
And, they screen people for business plan competitions, and there were all these stages.
但即便如此，也没有什么特别神秘、极其罕见的决定性因素。
But even so, they they it it there wasn't this magical x factor that is really, really rare.
可能只是某种更普遍存在的特质。
It might be something that's a lot more common.
所以我突然想到，这种做法或许在很多地方都能适用。
So I it just struck me that this could apply in a lot of places, possibly.
也就是说，这种项目在其他地方也能推行。
That that you could do this kind of program somewhere else.
没错。
Right.
这个故事来自2016年，由亚历克斯·戈德马克和诺尔·金主持。
That story was from 2016 hosted by Alex Goldmark and Noel King.
‘你赢了’这项比赛最终在尼日利亚被叫停了。
The you win contest was eventually shut down in Nigeria.
国家换了总统，你知道这通常意味着什么。
The country changed presidents, and you know how that goes.
但这个项目后来被肯尼亚和塞内加尔复制了。
But the program was copied in Kenya and Senegal.
提出这个想法的那位女士，恩戈齐医生，现在已是世界贸易组织的总干事。
The woman who came up with the idea, doctor Ngozi, is now the director general of the World Trade Organization, the WTO.
劳伦特的油漆生意至今还在运营。
And Laureate's paint business, still running.
不过她告诉我们，她至今仍难以筹集到资金来进一步扩大规模。
Although she tells us she still struggles to find financing to grow even bigger.
我们现在又请回了我们的教授，塔夫内特·苏里。
We have our professor back now with us, Tavneet Suri.
嗨，塔夫内特。
Hey, Tavneet.
你好，罗伯特。
Hi, Robert.
从这个案例中学到的一点是，尼日利亚和非洲许多其他国家都存在企业界的‘中间断层’。
One of the things I learned from this case study is that Nigeria and a lot of the other countries in Africa have what is called the missing middle of businesses.
有很多创业者，都是单打独斗的小个体户。
There are a lot of entrepreneurs, one person companies.
而在另一端，又有大量的大型企业。
And then on the other side of the spectrum, there's a lot of large corporations.
但中间规模的企业却严重不足。
But there aren't enough mid sized businesses.
这就是所谓的‘中间断层’。
That's the missing middle.
为什么会出现这种缺口？是什么阻碍了像劳瑞特这样的创业者进一步发展？
Why is this gap happening, and what's holding back entrepreneurs like Laureate from growing?
确实如此。
Yeah.
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
你知道吗，其中一个关键是技能。
You know, one piece is skills.
对吧？
Right?
你真的懂怎么经营一家公司吗？
Do you actually know how to run a business?
你算得上是个创业者吗？
Do do you you know, are you an entrepreneur?
你把所有需要的环节都考虑过吗？
Have you thought of all the pieces?
其次，当然就是实际的资金了。
You know, a second is, of course, actual capital.
对吧？
Right?
我要是想开家公司，就得先有一笔钱。
If I wanna start a business, I need a bunch of money.
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这笔钱从哪儿来？
Where do I get that money?
“赢取计划”是通过一次次大奖来解决资金问题的。
The u win program was tackling the money problem, one big lottery winning at a time.
但我一直在想，这个计划怎么才能扩大规模？
But I kept thinking, how does this program get bigger?
那些愿意介入、提供启动资金的风投公司或银行在哪？政府正是想通过这个计划来做这件事啊。
Where are the VC firms or banks that are willing to step in and provide the startup capital that the the government is trying to do with this program?
你要知道，放眼全球，很多中型企业背后都有银行提供一种叫现金流贷款的服务。
You know, if we think of the midsized businesses that we think of elsewhere in the world, a lot of banks do something we call cash flow lending.
你把企业的现金流给我看看。
You show me your cash flow in your business.
我一看你的现金流，就知道了。
I see your cash flow and go, okay.
我可以根据你的现金流，给你贷这么多钱。
I can lend you this much based on your cash flow.
在非洲，很多企业根本没法证明自己的现金流。
In Africa, a lot of businesses don't have a way of showing cash flow.
对吧？
Right?
我从不记录这些。
I don't keep track.
我没有电子账目。
I don't have electronic records.
我也没有Excel表格能给你看我的现金流。
I don't have an Excel spreadsheet to show you my cash flow.
很多生意都是非正式的，根本不会报税。
A lot of them are informal, so they're not filing taxes.
我连纳税申报单都没有，没法给你证明现金流。
I don't have a tax return to show you my cash flow.
所以银行可能觉得，得亲自跑一趟去核实情况，这成本实在太高了。
So some of it is maybe because banks feel like I would have to come out and visit the business to figure this out, and it's very costly to do that process.
这其实跟我们去年暑期学校反复讨论过的一个关键问题有关，那就是机构对企业的支持有多重要。
This goes back to a big thing that we talked about a lot in last year's summer school season, the value of institutions to help businesses.
在银行考虑放贷之前，你得先有完善的制度——明确的产权、专业的会计，还有值得信赖的法律体系。
You need a system in place with property rights, accountants, you know, a trusted legal system before you can even start to think about giving loans out as a bank.
是的。
Yeah.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
所以当时这个做法挺有创意的，甚至有点疯狂。如果按常规贷款来操作，我根本不可能第一次就给一家企业这么大一笔钱。
So this was kind of a very creative, kind of a little crazy thing to do, right, where had I wanted to structure that as a loan, I would never give out that amount as a first time loan to a business.
对吧？
Right?
这其实是另一个关键点。
So that's the other piece.
如果你打算做一件大事，但法律体系不靠谱，产权也不清楚——谁拥有什么、什么不属于谁，都没法界定，那你还怎么指望能收回成本呢？
You know, if you're gonna try and do something really big, it's not clear you can even recoup when the legal system doesn't work for you, and there's not clear property rights around what's owned and what's not owned and by who.
这至关重要。
Which is essential.
对吧？
Right?
我总说，土地测量员和产权保险公司看起来可能是世界上最无聊的行业，但它们其实是经济成功的基石——搞清楚谁拥有什么。
I always say that land surveyors and title insurance companies may seem like the most boring things in the world, but they are in fact the foundation of a successful economy, figuring out who owns what.
接下来，我们将横跨非洲大陆，前往肯尼亚的一个小镇，那里已经成为全球经济学研究的中心。
Up next, we travel halfway across the continent of Africa to a small town in Kenya that has really become the center of economic research for the world.
健康、教育和全民繁荣的基石是什么？
What are the building blocks of health, education, and prosperity for all?
稍后我们和《经济学人》一起揭晓答案。
We'll figure that out along with The Economist after the break.
你有没有过这种感觉？
You know this feeling?
上班忙得不可开交时，看到一条新闻，心想：等会儿再看。
You see a news story during a busy workday and think, I'll catch up later.
把NPR的《Consider This》加入你的每日新闻清单。
Make Consider This from NPR part of your daily news diet.
本周我们深入解析：五角大楼新提出的战争拨款申请、美国与沙特的核协议，以及针对泰特兄弟的诉讼案。
This week, we break down the new Pentagon request for war funding, The US nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, and the case against the Tate brothers.
每天下午短小精悍，要点清晰。
Short episodes, clear takeaways every afternoon.
Consider this。
Consider this.
在NPR应用或你常用的播客平台收听。
Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
《Shortwave》这档NPR科学播客，每期都从一个问题开始。
Every story from Shortwave NPR Science Podcast starts with a question.
比如，我们为什么会做噩梦？
Like, why do we have nightmares?
人工智能如何影响你的电费？
How does AI affect my energy bill?
在NPR，我们支持你对周围世界保持好奇的权利。
At NPR, we are here for your right to be curious about the world around you.
无论你在哪儿听播客，都请关注Shortwave，你问得越多，世界就越有趣。
Follow Shortwave wherever you get your podcasts because the more you ask, the more interesting the world gets.
你好。
Hi.
我是《Fresh Air》的主持人特里·格罗斯。
It's Teri Gross, host of Fresh Air.
嗨。
Hey.
暂时远离24小时滚动新闻，来听听我们深度访谈的作家、演员、电影人、喜剧演员和音乐人吧，正是这些人创作了滋养我们、反映时代的作品。
Take a break from the twenty four hour news cycle with us and listen to long form interviews with your favorite authors, actors, filmmakers, comedians, and musicians, the people making the art that nourishes us and speaks to our times.
欢迎收听NPR和WHYY联合制作的《Fresh Air》播客。
So listen to the fresh air podcast from NPR and WHYY.
好了，各位。
Alright, everyone.
大家别分散。
Stay together.
记住要结伴而行。
Remember the buddy system.
我们可不希望任何学生在这片乌干达和肯尼亚交界处走丢。
We don't want any of the students getting lost here on the border of Uganda and Kenya.
这里是我们第二个案例的研究地点，它直击经济学乃至整个科学的核心问题。
This is the location for our second case study, and it gets to the very core question in economics and all of science, really.
我们怎么知道自己知道的那些事是真的？
How do we know what we know?
哪些方法真正有效，哪些是无效的？
What really works and what doesn't?
本节目由艾丽卡·巴拉斯和亚历克斯·马萨西主持。
The show is hosted by Erica Barras and Alex Mayassi.
卡罗尔·纳凯萨长大的地方，她说，从来没想到世界其他地方会关心这里。
The place where Carol Nakessa grew up, she says it's not a place she ever expected the rest of the world to care about.
我出生并成长在肯尼亚西部的一个叫布西亚的小城镇。
I was born and raised in a small town in Western Kenya called Busia.
布西亚，肯尼亚。
Busia, Kenya.
它正好位于肯尼亚与乌干达的边境，是个繁忙的国际通道。
It's right on Kenya's border with Uganda, so it's a busy international crossing point.
来来往往的卡车非常多。
There's lots of truck traffic hauling things back and forth.
卡罗尔小时候，要在布西亚来回走动可不容易，特别危险。
It made getting around Busia kinda treacherous when Carol was a kid.
我们常常坐在自行车的后座上。
We would ride at the back of bicycles.
那种车叫‘边境车’。
They're called border borders.
每次有卡车开过来，我们都吓得要命，因为那种车根本不安全。
And all the time, we freaked out whenever there was a truck coming because, you know, they're not very safe.
后来，卡罗尔离开了布西亚。
Carol eventually left Busia.
她在内罗毕学了计算机，但家里希望她回家，父亲还帮她找了一份在当地的小城镇从事计算机相关的工作。
She studied computers in Nairobi, but her family wanted her to return home, and her father helped her get a computer related job back in the small town.
有一群经济学家在做一项研究，需要人帮忙录入数据。
A group of economists were doing some sort of study, and they needed someone to help with data entry.
于是卡罗尔就坐在桌前，录入一些奇怪问卷的答案。
So Carol finds herself sitting at a desk and entering the answers to some strange survey questions.
你家有几只山羊？
How many goats you have?
有几台电视？
How many TVs?
有几辆自行车？
How many bicycles?
这些问题一直在我脑子里转，我就想，干嘛要问别人这种问题？
So all these questions started nagging me, and I was wondering, like, why would you ask someone these types of questions?
卡罗尔·达切萨后来遇到了那个想了解布西亚人有多少山羊和自行车的人——迈克尔·克里默，一位戴眼镜、说话温和的美国人。
Carol Dacessa eventually met the man who wanted to know how many goats and bicycles bicycles people people in in Busia Busia had, Michael Creamer, a soft spoken American with glasses.
我当时在离布西亚不远的地方教高中。
So I taught high school not far away from Busia.
之后，他去攻读经济学博士学位。
After that, he went off to get his PhD in economics.
他专注于发展经济学，研究阻碍贫困国家发展的各种因素。
He focused on development economics, which deals with all the factors that keep poor countries from growing.
从基础设施匮乏到公共卫生问题，方方面面都包括在内。
So everything from a lack of infrastructure to public health problems.
迈克尔拿到学位后，心里始终放不下肯尼亚。
Michael gets his degree, and his thoughts are never far from Kenya.
他建议一位朋友在布西亚开展一个帮助孩子的项目，比如支付学费、资助学校，他还提议可以做个实验，看看这个项目到底有没有真正帮到人。
He advises a friend with a project to help kids in Busia, paying school fees, funding school, and Michael suggests that maybe they could do a sort of experiment to see if the project really helped people.
这个项目规模太小，没法得出明确结论，但钱确实起到了一点作用。
It ends up being too small to draw any conclusions, but the money seemed to help a bit.
几年后，迈克尔朋友的非营利组织打算扩大项目规模。
A couple of years later, Michael's friend's nonprofit is trying to take on a bigger project.
他们想给这个地区一百所学校的学生发放教科书。
They want to give textbooks to students at a 100 schools in the region.
迈克尔觉得，现在是时候把他的实验想法大规模推行了。
And Michael, He's ready to try out his experiment idea in a bigger way.
他打算做一个随机对照试验。
He wants to do a randomized controlled trial.
随机对照试验在医学界已经几十年来被视为黄金标准。
Now randomized trials have been the gold standard in medicine for decades.
上世纪四十年代我们用它来测试肺结核的疗法，五十年代用来验证脊髓灰质炎疫苗。
It's how we tested the treatment for tuberculosis back in the 1940s, the polio vaccine in the 1950s.
你得有两个统计上完全相同的群体，然后随机选一组接受干预，另一组不接受。
You have two statistically identical groups, and you randomly choose one of them to get the treatment, and the other one doesn't.
在医学上，这是判断一项干预措施是否有效的最佳方法之一。
In medicine, it's one of the best ways we have of understanding whether an intervention works.
九十年代初，经济学领域虽然有几项基于随机试验的研究，但这种做法并不普遍。
In economics in the early nineties, there have been a few studies based on randomized trials, but it wasn't really how things were done.
随机试验成本很高。
Randomized trials are expensive.
而且耗时很长。
They take a lot of time.
所以当迈克尔着手评估在布西亚向学生发放教科书的效果时，他不仅想帮朋友的非营利组织把钱花得更有效率。
So when Michael sets out to measure the effects of giving out textbooks to school kids in Busia, he's not only trying to help his friend's nonprofit spend its money effectively.
他还在尝试一种全新的方式，来得出经济学领域的结论。
He's also trying out a different way of drawing conclusions in economics.
他设计的这项研究持续了四年，覆盖了布西亚周边的100所学校。
The study he designs takes place over four years, and it includes 100 schools around Busia.
迈克尔和同事们随机将这些学校分到不同的组别。
Michael and his colleagues randomly assign the schools to different groups.
他们通常是按学校名称的字母顺序列出来，然后一个一个数，一、二、三，一、二、三，一、二、三。
This was often listing the schools in alphabetical order and then going you know, counting off one two three, one two three, one two three.
他们想确保这些小组都差不多，不会有一个小组特别不一样。
They want to be sure that these groups are all pretty much the same, that one group isn't an outlier in some way.
他们常用的方法是调查学生家庭的情况，那时候卡罗尔·纳切萨刚被雇来。
One way they do this is by surveying the families, and this is around the time Carol Nacessa was hired.
她当时觉得奇怪的那些问题，比如有没有山羊、电视、自行车，其实都是为了看看哪些学生的家庭明显更富裕。
All those questions about goats and TVs and bikes that she was puzzled by, they were meant to check whether some of the students' families were much wealthier than the others.
于是这项研究正式开始了。
So the study gets up and running.
第一年，只有一组学校拿到了课本。
The first year, only one group of schools gets textbooks.
第二年，第二组学校也拿到了，直到所有小组都分到了课本。
The next year, a second group gets them until all the groups have gotten them.
这样的安排持续了四年。
This goes on for four years.
最后，迈克尔拿到了结果，结果出乎意料。
And then Michael gets the results, and there is a big surprise.
他原本以为，每组一拿到教材，成绩就会提升。
He expected that as each group received the textbooks, their test scores would go up.
但结果，他根本没看到平均成绩有任何变化。
But instead, he didn't see any difference in average test scores.
一点变化都没有，尽管这些孩子都已经有了教材。
No difference at all, even though all these kids now had textbooks.
说实话，我一开始特别震惊。
You know, first, I was shocked.
这跟我预想的完全不一样。
That wasn't what I was expecting.
其次，我感到很失望。
Second, I was disappointed.
是啊。
I yeah.
我真心希望这能成功，也一直觉得它会成功。
I wanted this to work, and I thought it would work.
迈克尔反思了他对肯尼亚农村学校的了解。
Michael reflects on what he knows about schools in rural Kenya.
他知道，很多孩子落后的原因有很多。
He knows that many kids fall behind for a whole bunch of reasons.
学校用英语授课，但大多数孩子在家并不说英语。
School is taught in English, but most kids don't speak English at home.
还有疟疾、艾滋病等公共卫生问题，会让孩子们缺课。
There are public health problems like malaria and HIV, which can keep kids out of school.
孩子们也会因为要打工或帮家里干活而缺课。
And kids miss school to work or help their families.
当他思考这些问题，回头查看数据时，发现了一个起初没注意到的现象。
And as he's thinking about that and looking back at the data, he notices something that didn't initially stand out.
教材确实对一部分学生有帮助。
The textbooks did help one group.
那就是那些原本成绩就很好的学生。
Students who had high test scores to begin with.
他们的成绩显著提升了。
Their scores improved significantly.
最终，这项研究带来了一个重要的发现。
Eventually, this study led to an important insight.
政府和援助组织每年在教科书上投入数百万美元。
Governments and aid groups were spending millions of dollars on textbooks.
但其中很大一部分钱其实浪费了。
But a lot of that money was wasted.
于是，教育改革者开始更多关注那些学习吃力的孩子。
And so education reformers started focusing more on the kids who weren't doing well.
他们开始重视补习教育。
They start emphasizing remedial education.
对迈克尔和布西亚来说，这项教科书研究是个转折点。
For Michael and for Busia, the textbook study is a turning point.
迈克尔心想，我想做更多这样的研究，通过随机试验来解决人们实际面临的问题。
Michael is like, I wanna do more studies like this, randomized trials that can help solve real problems that people face.
其他经济学家也开始感兴趣了。
And other economists get interested too.
其中一些人是迈克尔的学生。
Some of them were students of Michael's.
他们先来做研究助理，之后又独立开展自己的项目。
They'd help out as research assistants, then go on to develop their own projects.
而且很多时候，他们选择去布西亚，因为那里特别适合做研究。
And very, very often, that meant working in Busia because it was a good place to do research.
当这么多经济学家陆续来到布西亚时，卡罗尔·纳凯萨正好在一线见证。
When all of these economists are coming to Busia, Carol Nakessa has a front row seat.
一开始，我们租了一栋专门给专家住的房子。
So first we had one expert house which was rented specifically for the experts.
后来专家越来越多，我们就又租了第二栋专家宿舍。
And then the experts, you know, they continued to increase so we rented a second expert house.
每栋房子里大概住四五个人。
So maybe four, five in a house.
天哪，真厉害。
Oh wow.
你知道吗，今年夏天，办公室里到处都是白人。
You know, this summer, the office would be full of so many white people.
后来发展到，镇上任何一个白人都跟我们有关系。
I think it got to the point where any white person in town would be affiliated to us.
到2010年，布西亚开展的这些研究开始重塑发展经济学。
By 2010, the studies that are happening in Busia are starting to remake development economics.
迈克尔在哈佛的一名学生，泰德·米格尔，评估了免费为学童驱除寄生虫的益处，而当时很多机构都在收费。
One of Michael's students from Harvard, Ted Miguel, evaluated the benefits of giving schoolchildren medicine for parasitic worms for free when a lot of groups were charging for it.
结果发现，接受过治疗的孩子上学的可能性要高得多。
It winds up showing that kids are far more likely to attend school if they've been treated.
后续研究显示，这最终让他们成年后获得了更好的工作和更高的收入。
A follow-up study shows that led to better jobs and higher incomes later in life.
现在，这种治疗在肯尼亚已经成为标准做法。
Treatment is now standard across Kenya.
而在布西亚协助开展研究的肯尼亚工作人员中，有些人意识到，这可以成为我的事业。
And the Kenyan staffers who helped run studies in Busia, some of them realized this can be my career.
卡罗尔就是其中之一。
Carol was one of them.
她最初只是给研究人员提一些意见。
She started out by just making suggestions to the researchers.
比如我读完一份提案后，想了想，就会想，要是这样会不会更好？
Like if I read a proposal and then I think about it, I'm like, oh, how about this?
或者那样呢？
How about this?
我觉得这些想法自然而然就冒出来了。
I feel like it just came naturally.
毕竟，她参与随机对照试验已经好多年了，几乎和布西亚的这些研究同步开始。
After all, she'd been working on randomized trials for years, pretty much as long as they'd been happening in Busia.
一旦有人采纳了你的建议，你就会觉得更愿意在未来继续提出更多想法。
And so the moment someone accepts your suggestion, it's also something that makes you to feel like sharing more suggestions in future.
是的
Yeah.
比如卡罗尔告诉一位经济学家，当地有很多女孩为了钱而与年长男性发生性关系，这增加了她们感染艾滋病毒的风险。
Like Carol tells an economist that there are lots of girls having sex with older men in return for money, which raises their risk for HIV.
这位经济学家帕斯卡琳·杜帕就问：她们知道这个风险吗？
The economist, Pascaline Dupa, is like, do they know about the risk?
我们能改变这种行为吗？
Could we change this behavior?
于是帕斯卡琳设计了一套课程，教女孩们知道年长男性感染艾滋病毒的比例更高。
So Pascaline created a curriculum to teach girls that older men have higher rates of HIV.
这套课程被推广到几十所学校，并进行了随机对照试验来评估效果。
The curriculum went out to dozens of schools, and there was a randomized trial to test the results.
对我来说，她的研究太棒了，因为当时这确实是个大问题。
For me, her study was awesome in so many ways because that was a big problem then.
对
Yeah.
你能从研究数据里看出来，因为这个课程，更少的女孩去从事那种危险的工作了吗？
Did you feel like you could see it in the the data from the study that that fewer girls had gone into that kind of dangerous work as a result?
是的。
Yes.
确实看出来了。
I did.
帕斯卡琳的研究发现，在接受过教育的学校里，女孩怀孕率下降了，说明无保护性行为减少了。
Pascaline's study found that in the schools that got the teaching, fewer girls got pregnant, suggesting there was less unprotected sex.
于是，这套课程开始被更广泛地采用。
And so the curriculum started to be used more widely.
2014年，就在卡罗尔最初参与迈克尔·克莱默教材研究近二十年后，她离开了布西亚，去哈佛攻读硕士学位。
In 2014, almost twenty years after Carol first started working on Michael Kramer's textbook study, she left Busia to get a master's degree at Harvard.
毕业后，她立刻回到肯尼亚的布西亚，创办了自己的研究机构，为想在肯尼亚开展随机对照试验的学者提供一站式支持。
And when she graduated, she went right back to Kenya to Busia and founded her own research organization, a kind of one stop shop for any researcher who wants to run a randomized trial in Kenya.
卡罗尔·纳凯萨说，她知道这种经济学方法已经改变了全球许多发展中国家人们的生活。
Carol Nakessa says she knows this approach to economics has changed lives in developing countries all over the world.
当你看到其他国家也在实践这些做法，而且他们说这正是源于肯尼亚开展的那项研究——而我们不只是在肯尼亚，是在你家乡这样一个小镇上发生的。
When you see something being practiced in other countries and they tell you it was also as a result of the study that was conducted in Kenya, And we're not only Kenya, but in a small town where you come from.
这难道不让人欣慰吗？
Isn't that not nice?
确实很让人欣慰。
It is indeed nice.
这个案例研究发布于2023年，由埃里卡·巴里斯和亚历克斯·马萨西主持。
That case study was from 2023 and was hosted by Erica Barris and Alex Mayassi.
值得一提的是，迈克尔·克雷默后来与在布西亚一起工作的其他研究者——奥布里·朱普·能源和埃丝特·杜芙洛——共同获得了诺贝尔经济学奖。
And a notable follow-up here, Michael Kramer won the Nobel Prize in economics alongside some of the other researchers who worked in Busia, Aubrey Jupe Energy and Esther Duflo.
他们获奖的原因是，用随机对照试验有效缓解全球贫困的方法。
They won for the idea of using randomized controlled trials to effectively alleviate global poverty.
我们将在广告时段后，继续邀请我们的肯尼亚经济学家、商学院教授回来。
We return with our Kenyan economist, also a business school professor, after the break.
本周，在NPR政治播客中，我们揭示了政治广告投放中的一种模式。
This week on the NPR politics podcast, we uncover a pattern in political ad spending.
随着中期选举临近，共和党人又打起了他们以前屡试不爽的牌——移民问题。
As the midterms get closer, Republicans are leaning into an issue they've won on before, immigration.
我们来看看他们是怎么说的，同时听听民主党人对此截然不同的看法。
We look at their message and also what Democrats are saying on the issue in a very different way.
立即收听NPR政治播客。
Listen now on the NPR politics podcast.
我们回来了，继续邀请我们的肯尼亚经济学家塔夫内特·苏里，她目前在麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院任教。
We are back with our Kenyan economist, Tavneet Suri, who is currently at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
嗨，塔夫内特。
Hey, Tavneet.
你好，罗伯特。
Hi, Robert.
在肯尼亚，当地人知道布西亚这个小镇吗？就是那个被全世界经济学家奉为圣地的小地方？
So in Kenya, do people know this about Busia, that it is this town of economists beloved around the world?
不知道。
No.
我猜应该不知道。
My guess would be no.
我父母知道， partly 是因为一些经济学家曾来我家吃饭。
My parent my parents know, but partly because some of those economists have traipsed to our house for dinner.
没人能抵挡住免费美食的诱惑。
You cannot keep an economist away from free food.
当不是你父母的人提到布西亚时，他们会为肯尼亚成为随机对照试验中心感到自豪吗？还是会觉得，嗯，有点像被当成了世界实验场？
When people who are not your parents talk about Busia, are they proud that Kenya was the center of this randomized controlled trial revolution, or does it feel a little, I don't know, icky to be the world's experimental lab?
是的。
Yeah.
这确实是个好问题，罗伯特。
I guess that's a great question, Robert.
我觉得你会听到两种不同的看法。
I think you'll probably get flavors of both people.
有些人觉得，能产生这么多知识挺了不起的。
Some people who think it's cool that there's been knowledge generated.
我觉得另一些人觉得这很奇怪，不认为我们该成为实验对象。
I think others who think this is weird and they don't really think we should be part of experiments.
我确实经常被人问到，这些研究对我们所有人有什么好处？
I do think the one question that a lot of people do ask me is how does this help all of us?
对吧？
Right?
它能改变政策吗？
Does it change policy?
它能被落实吗？
Does it get implemented?
我们能不能学到一些最终能惠及每个人的东西？
Do we learn stuff that will come back to benefit everybody in some way?
这当然更难回答，毕竟我们能做研究。
And that's a harder question to answer, of course, because we can do the research.
政府会不会听从结果并采取行动，那就是另一回事了。
Whether the government listens to the results and reacts is a whole other separate kinda question.
那当他们问这个问题时，你怎么回答？
So what do you say when they ask this?
这对肯尼亚的普通人真的有帮助吗？
Is it helping real people in Kenya?
我通常会说，短期内对肯尼亚政策的直接影响可能不大，但对我们全球知识体系的贡献，以及由此对更广泛政策产生的影响，我认为是非常显著的。
I sort of say the direct effect to Kenyan policy might not be huge on any given day, but the effect on our global knowledge and how that affects policy more broadly, I think, is quite large.
如果能在本地推动减少疾病、提升教育、缓解贫困的政策，这些积累起来能让整个国家变得更富裕吗？还是说这并不一定成立？
If you can have policies that encourage less disease, more education, less poverty on a local level, does that build up to make the whole country richer, or does that not necessarily follow?
根据我们目前的了解，答案是肯定的，确实会带来这种效果。
I think from what we know, it absolutely follows.
我认为，经济发展的核心在于我们所说的人力资本，也就是人口的教育水平和健康状况。
I do think that core to the growth of an economy is this thing we call human capital, which is about the education and the health of your population.
这就像人本身带到桌面上的那种‘资本’。
It's the sort of, in quotes, capital that a human brings to the table.
你该怎么衡量对人力资本投资的回报呢？
How do you figure out what the return on the investment in human capital is?
那你这里的变量是什么？
What's your what's your variable there?
对。
Yeah.
比如，我们会看教育的投资回报。
So we look at returns to education, for example.
关于教育回报的研究已经非常多了。
There's a large literature on the returns to education.
事实上，最近有些研究指出，东南亚的经济奇迹中，有一部分归功于教育，而其中更重要的是高等教育，而不是初等教育。
In fact, there's some recent work showing that the growth miracle in Southeast Asia, a chunk of that was education, but an important part of that was was higher education, actually, less so primary education.
这就是教育方面的部分。
So that's the education piece.
至于健康方面，我们同样会衡量健康投入的回报。
And then the health piece, again, we measure the returns to health investments.
有一期播客提到过迈克尔·克雷默和泰德·米格尔做的驱虫研究。
One of the podcast talked about a deworming study that Michael Kramer and Ted Miguel ran.
这是一项健康方面的投资。
That was an investment in health.
而且，这也间接促进了教育，因为孩子们身体更健康，上学更勤了。
And there, it actually also resulted in more education because the kids were healthier and went to school more.
所以这两者其实是相互关联的。
And so these two things are actually tied.
在经济学里，我们称之为正外部性。
We call that a positive externality in economics.
你能给同学们解释一下这个概念吗？
Why don't you define that for the class?
正外部性就是，当我对某件事进行投入时，也会让别人受益。
Positive externality is where if I invest in something, it benefits other people.
比如，如果我受过更多教育并在工作，周围的人也会因为我的教育水平更高而变得更有生产力。
So an example is if I'm more educated and I am working, the people around me are more productive because I have more education than they would be otherwise.
反过来，他们对我也是如此。
And the same for them on me.
如果他们受教育程度更高，我们就能一起做更多事，我的效率也会提高。
If they're more educated, we can do more stuff together, and I become more productive.
作为经济学家，你有没有因为明明知道某些事却无能为力而感到沮丧？
As an economist, do you ever get frustrated seeing that we know something?
我们从随机对照试验中早就知道了答案，可就是没人听，或者政府偏偏选择做别的事。
We know something from the randomized controlled trials, but either no one will listen or government chooses to do something different.
你有没有想过直接撞墙算了？
Do you ever just bang your head against the wall?
当然有。
Oh, absolutely.
每天都有，罗伯特。
Every day, Robert.
是的。
Okay.
我们难道不希望人们在做决定时更多地参考研究和知识吗？
Would we like people to use research and knowledge more in their decision making?
当然了。
Absolutely.
但你总不能光靠撞墙解决问题。
But you can't just bang your head up against a wall.
你得想想，我们能做点什么来改变现状？
You have to say, well, what can we do about it?
对吧？
Right?
于是，同样的学者们一直在努力建立与政策制定者的关系，试图推动这种改变。
And so the same academics have been trying to build sort of, you know, policy relationships to try and change that.
而获得诺贝尔奖，确实有助于说服政府去认真看看那些数据。
And I guess a Nobel Prize doesn't hurt when it comes to convincing governments that they maybe just maybe wanna look at the data.
塔夫尼特，这个季节我们问每一位教授最后一个问题。
Tavneet, we're asking all of our professors this season one final question.
如果肯尼亚经济中有什么东西，值得我们带回美国借鉴，那会是什么？
If there is something in the Kenyan economy that we could take back here to The United States that would be useful, what would that thing be?
这跟金融或经济学没关系，罗伯特，但你知道，人人都爱投票，也都会去投票。
Well, it's not finance or economics, Robert, but, you know, everybody loves to vote, and everybody shows up to vote.
在肯尼亚，真的吗？
In Kenya, really?
也不是百分之百的人，但投票率确实非常高。
Everybody not everybody a 100%, but voter turnout rates are extremely high.
你可以想象，人们为了投票，排上好几个小时的队。
And as you can imagine, people stand in line for hours and hours on end to vote.
这种热情，就跟每个人都自己做生意一样。
That enthusiasm is similar to how everyone seems to have their own business.
人们喜欢参与国家的公共事务和商业生活。
People like to get involved in the civic and business life of the country.
总的来说，确实有一件事是真的：人人都想参与到经济中来。
I think in general, that's one thing that's true is everybody wants to participate in the economy.
就像我之前说的，连年轻人也是这样。
Think of even young people, as I said.
他们上不了大学，感到沮丧，因为他们想参与到经济中来。
They're not getting into university, they're frustrated because they want to participate in the economy.
我们看到的这种创业精神，反映出人们渴望深度参与社会和经济生活，我觉得是这样。
The entrepreneurship piece we saw, there's this sort of wanting to participate in the social and economic life in a very deep way, I think.
而这种参与，是通过投票和政治实现的。
And that's through voting and politics.
你在我们刚才说的创业精神里就能看到这一点。
You see it in that entrepreneurial spirit we talked about.
这一点让我非常受鼓舞，我觉得我们有责任去思考如何实现它。
So that piece, I find very inspiring, and I think it's up to us to figure out how to deliver on that.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这堪称是所有经济学家的使命宣言。
I think that's a good mission statement for economists everywhere.
塔夫尼特，暑假结束时会有一场考试。
Tavneet, there will be a test at the end of the semester of summer school.
你能不能帮我们梳理一下今天这期节目里的几个关键概念？
Maybe you could help us with defining some of the concepts from today's episode.
没问题。
Sure.
不过有个条件，我可不负责批改作业啊。
With one caveat, I don't have to do any of the grading of
当然不劳你费心。
No.
全是自动评分。
It's all automatic.
所有人都能及格。
Everybody passes.
那太好了。
Oh, great.
明白了。
Okay.
这个所谓的随机对照试验，就是那个得了诺贝尔奖、大家最近都在聊的随机对照试验，到底是什么？
What is this randomized control trial, I should say, Nobel Prize winning randomized control trial that everyone's talking about?
随机对照试验就是研究某项措施效果的一种方法，简单说就是把研究人群随机分成两组，一组接受干预，另一组不接受。
A randomized control trial is a way of studying the impact of something where you basically split a population a study population into two groups randomly, and one group gets the intervention and one doesn't.
这样就能比较清晰地估算出这个项目到底产生了多大影响。
It allows you to sort of estimate the impact of that program very cleanly.
我们这期聊到的很多随机对照试验，都跟人力资本有关。
A lot of the randomized controlled trials we talked about in this episode involved human capital.
那什么是人力资本？
What is human capital?
人力资本就是教育和健康。
Human capital is education and health.
你可以把它理解为，储存在人身上、体现在人身上的那种资本。
So think of it as the capital embodied in our in in humans, in people.
这其实是对人本身进行投资，而不是直接投钱，虽然确实也得花钱。
It's investing in humans instead of investing money, although it does cost money.
没错。
Correct.
对。
Yes.
确实需要花不少钱。
It does cost a lot of money.
最后，我们谈到了非洲国家企业面临的‘中间断层’问题。
Finally, we talked about the missing middle as a problem faced by businesses in countries in Africa.
什么是‘中间断层’？
What is the missing middle?
所谓中间断层，就是指那些员工数量处于中等规模的企业缺失了。
So the missing middle is where I don't have businesses that are middle sized in terms of their employees.
我看到的大多是小型企业，通常只有一两个人。
I have lots of very small businesses with, you know, one or two employees.
也有不少大型企业，员工有几百人，但就是缺少员工在五到二十人之间的中等规模企业。
I have a bunch of big businesses that are in the hundreds of employees, but I'm missing this middle set of businesses that have kind of five, ten, fifteen, twenty employees.
来自麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院的塔夫尼特·苏里。
Tavneet Suri from the MIT Sloan School of Management.
非常感谢你来参加并与我们交流。
Thank you so much for coming in and for talking with us.
不客气。
You're very welcome.
能和你聊我很开心。
It's been a pleasure.
和你聊天我也很愉快。
I had fun talking with you too.
你下次什么时候去肯尼亚？
When are you next going to Kenya?
你父母也想知道。
Your parents wanna know.
八月。
August.
不错。
Nice.
在我们带你环游世界参加暑期课程时，你或许可以带一本经济指南。
As you travel with us around the world for summer school, you might wanna bring along a guidebook to the economy.
幸运的是，我们写了《塑造你生活的经济力量》。
Luckily, we wrote economic forces that shape your life.
这就像一档播客，但配有精美的全彩插图。
It's like a podcast, but with beautiful full color illustrations.
我随身行李里 always 放着一本。
It's always in my carry on.
如果你曾生活在某个国家，那里有值得全世界学习的聪明经济做法，请告诉我们，你可能会出现在我们的毕业特辑里。
And, hey, if you have lived in some country with a smart economic idea the rest of the world should know about, Please tell us, and you might be featured in our graduation episode.
也许你知道更高效的报税方式、预算内完成的大型项目，或者房租特别便宜的地方。
Perhaps you know a different way to do taxes, a mega project that came in under budget, somewhere where rent is cheap.
现在就联系我们吧。
Get in touch now.
请发送邮件至 planetmoney@npr.org，并在主题栏注明“暑期学校”。
Email us at planetmoney@npr.org and put summer school in the subject.
《暑期学校》由索菲亚·帕利扎-卡雷制作，亚历克斯·戈德马克剪辑。
Summer school is produced by Sophia Paliza-Carre and edited by Alex Goldmark.
内容由莱拉·多斯核对。
It's fact checked by Leyla Doss.
本节目由黄安莉负责技术制作。
This show is engineered by Annlie Huang.
我是罗伯特·史密斯。
I'm Robert Smith.
除了主持暑期学校，我还在主持一档新播客《商业历史》。
When I'm not summer schooling, I'm also the host of the new podcast Business History.
这档节目讲述商业发展的历史。
It's a show about the history of business.
这里是美国国家公共电台。
This is NPR.
谢谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
我们现在开始登机了，Planet Money航班一组商务尊享舱，当然包括所有Planet Money的听众。
We have now started boarding our Planet Money flight group one business premium elite, which, of course, includes all Planet Money listeners.
请到登机口优先登机，还有香槟奉上。
Get over to our gate for early boarding and a glass of champagne.
飞往挪威奥斯陆的航班现在开始登机。
Our flight to Oslo, Norway is now boarding.
准备好了解挪威是如何摆脱资源诅咒，也就是所谓的‘富足悖论’吧。
Get ready to learn how Norway beat the resource curse, aka the paradox of plenty.
照常下周三起飞。
Take off as usual next Wednesday.
你知道吗？每天在NPR提名了金球奖的晨间新闻播客《Up First》上，我们都会为你带来三条关键新闻。
You know, every day on Up First, NPR's Golden Globe nominated morning news podcast, we bring you three essential stories.
每条新闻的核心，都是几个关键问题。
At the heart of each story are questions.
到底发生了什么？
What really happened?
真正重要的是什么？
What really mattered?
接下来会发生什么？
What happens next?
在NPR，我们支持你保持好奇、追寻事实的权利。
At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and to follow the facts.
订阅《Up First》，无论你在哪个平台听播客，都能在每天开始时了解真正重要的事以及背后的原因。
Follow-up first wherever you get your podcasts and start your day knowing what matters and why.
莱拉，现在好像每件事都被当成经济衰退的信号了。
Leyla, it seems like everything is being called a recession indicator these days.
是的。
Yeah.
比如我橱柜里那盒汉堡帮手。
Like the box of hamburger helper in my pantry.
或者那本新出的苹果Neo书。
Or the new Apple Neo book.
或者美甲、口红，甚至不涂口红这种潮流的回归。
Or the resurgence of press on nails or lipstick or no lipstick.
我都数不清了。
I've lost track.
不过，要判断这些是不是真正的经济预警信号，只有一个办法。
There is only one way to know if these are actual economic warning signs, though.
去听《Planet Money》在NPR应用里或者你听播客的平台上的那期节目。
Listen to the indicator from Planet Money on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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