没有比做面团生意更好的生意了

现在是六月，离中期选举又到了关键的一周。

It's June and another big week in the run up to the midterms.

有六个州正在举行初选，包括加利福尼亚——那里已经启用了新的国会选区地图，州长竞选也乱成一锅粥，谁都有机会。

Primaries in half a dozen states, including California, where new congressional maps are in place, and a chaotic race for governor is wide open.

我们还在关注油价和伊朗的情况。

We're also following gas prices and Iran.

到目前为止，关于和平协议的讨论，还只是说说而已。

So far, talk of a peace deal is just talk.

我们会持续向你更新进展。

We'll keep you posted.

每天早上记得收听，打开NPR应用，或者你常用的播客平台，第一个节目就是它。

Listen every morning, up first on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是来自NPR的《金钱星球》。

This is Planet Money from NPR.

几个月前，《金钱星球》收到了来自播客《Hyperfixed》朋友发来的一个经济信号。

A few months back, Planet Money got a little economic bat signal from our friends over at the podcast Hyperfixed.

Hyperfixed 这个节目由我长期喜爱的广播人亚历克斯·戈德曼主持。

Hyperfixed is hosted by one of my longtime favorite radio heads, Alex Goldman.

他以前是《Reply All》的主持人之一。

He was previously one of the hosts of Reply All.

每期节目里，Hyperfixed 都会接手听众提出的各种问题，不管大小，然后想办法解决。

And for each episode, Hyperfixed takes on listener problems, big and small, and sets out to solve them.

是的。

Yeah.

我们收到的问题小到有听众说：嘿，

We get questions as small as listener said, hey.

我最爱的面包店关门了，现在再也吃不到我钟爱的蛋糕了。

My favorite bakery shut down, and now I can no longer get the cake that I love.

于是我们请来了烘焙高手克莱尔·萨弗茨，帮我们还原出那个食谱。

So we got Claire Safets, baker extraordinaire, to help us figure out the recipe.

这个问题真棒。

Love that question.

我们还会收到这样的问题：我该不该要孩子？

And we also get questions like, should I have children?

这个嘛，你也能想到，回答起来要难多了。

Which, as you might imagine, is a more difficult question to answer.

是的。

Yeah.

这确实是个更大、更让人害怕的问题。

That's a that's a bigger, scarier one.

不过还是谢谢你愿意去查这件事。

But thank you for thank you for looking into it.

对。

Yeah.

我会尽力而为。

I do my best.

但让我们想到你们的，是一位叫杰德·克罗恩费尔德的听众提的问题，他想聊聊他家附近的地铁站。

But the question that made us think of you guys was from a listener named Jed Kronfeld because he wanted to talk about his local subway stop.

说它只是个地铁站，这可太轻描淡写了。

To call it just a subway station, it it's underplaying it a little bit.

杰德过去五年一直住在布鲁克林，他心里一直有个疑问，就是关于大西洋大道-巴克莱中心站。

Jed's lived in Brooklyn for the last five years, and the question on his mind had to do with the Atlantic Avenue-Barclays Center Station.

这里连着九到十条地铁线路，还通向长岛铁路的终点站。

It connects, like, nine or 10 different lines, and then it leads to a terminal for the Long Island Railroad.

更别说上面还有一整层购物中心。

And then on top of that is a whole other layer that is a mall.

要理解杰德的问题，你得先搞清楚这个综合体到底是什么样子。

And to understand Jed's question, you first have to understand what this complex looks like.

大西洋大道-巴克莱中心站常年被评为布鲁克林最繁忙的车站。

The Atlantic Avenue-Barclays Center Station is consistently ranked as the number one busiest station in Brooklyn.

它这么忙，是因为这个枢纽把布鲁克林市中心和纽约市其他地方全都连在了一起。

And the reason it's so busy is because this one hub connects Downtown Brooklyn to the rest of New York City.

这里还坐落着一座大型体育馆。

It's home to a massive arena.

布鲁克林篮网队在这里比赛。

The Brooklyn Nets play there.

这里还是个大型演唱会场地，很多大牌艺人比如巴德·本尼、布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀、查理·X·C·X 都来这儿演出。

It's a huge concert venue where you can see artists like Bad Bunny, Bruce Springsteen, Charlie x c x.

所以这个地铁站本身人流量特别大。

So the subway station itself is super bustling.

它有好几层。

It's got multiple levels.

更上面还有一整个购物中心。

And then on top of that, you have a shopping mall.

正是在这个像埃舍尔画作一样错综复杂的迷宫里，杰德第一次注意到了一些奇怪的地方。

And it's in this Escher like maze that Jed first noticed something strange.

在商场的上层，有一家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店，看起来和其他的没什么两样。

On the upper end in the mall, there is one Wetzel's Pretzels, and it looks like any Wetzel's Pretzels.

但在整个系统里，顶层有一家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店，底层还另有一家。

And then within the system, on the Top Floor, there is a Wetzel's Pretzels, and on the Bottom Floor, there is another Wetzel's Pretzels.

它们所在的那些空间，小得就跟个扫帚柜差不多。

And the spaces that they're in, they look like no larger than a broom closet.

这实在说不通。

It just kinda doesn't make sense.

我不明白怎么可能会开一家这样的店，更别说两家，甚至第三家了。

I don't know how you set up one place like that much less two, much less a a third location.

如果你从这三家店之间绕一圈，它们彼此之间到底有多远？

If you were to walk a circuit between all of them, how far away are they from one another?

一分钟之内就能走到所有三家店。

You could get to all of them within a minute.

真的快到不可思议。

It's really that quick.

天哪。

Wow.

你是什么时候发现居然有三家Wetzel's Pretzels的？

When did you notice that there were three Wetzel's Pretzels locations?

我搬进布鲁克林的时候，商场里那个店已经开了。

By the time I moved into Brooklyn, like, the one in the mall that was already there.

然后大概

And then about

两年前，另外两家也开了。

two years ago, the other

两家是差不多同时入驻的。

two moved in.

我不确定他们是不是同一天开的，但肯定是在同一个月份内开的。

I don't know if they moved in at the same time, but they definitely moved in within the same month.

我就想，我们这是在干嘛？

I'm like, what what are we doing?

这也太多了吧。

This is excessive.

在杰德的怀疑背后，其实藏着三个问题。

Underneath Jed's skepticism, there are three questions.

首先，他想知道为什么在大西洋大道-巴克莱中心车站附近会集中开三家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店。

First, he wants to understand why there are three Wetzel's Pretzels clustered so close together in the Atlantic Barclays station.

其次，他想知道这些店是竞争对手，还是合作关系。

Second, he wants to know if they're competitors or collaborators.

第三，他想知道这些店里有没有哪一家真的在赚钱。

And third, he wants to know if any of these locations are actually turning a profit.

我们一开始调查，结果发现大西洋大道-巴克莱中心车站并不是唯一一个出现这种韦茨尔店铺密集现象的地方。

And we started looking into this, and it turned out the Atlantic Avenue-Barclays Station was not the only instance of this sort of Wetzel's cluster.

事实上，在新泽西州的美国梦购物中心，也有三家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店。

Turns out there are also three Wetzel's Pretzels at the American Dream Mall in New Jersey.

在加州托伦斯的德尔阿莫时尚中心，同样有三家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店。

At the Del Amor Fashion Center in Torrance, California, there are three Wetzel's Pretzels.

而在洛杉矶湖人队主场的Crypto.com体育馆，甚至有五家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店。

And at the crypto.comarena, where the LA Lakers play, there are five Wetzel's Pretzels locations.

事实上，我们越查越发现，只要有一家韦茨尔店开在那里，附近往往就会有其他几家紧挨着。

In fact, the more we looked into it, the more we noticed where one Wetzel's Pretzels location exists, other Wetzel's Pretzels are often very close by.

就是这时候，我们决定联系你，亚历西，帮你解开杰德这个小谜题。

And that's when we decided to call you, Alexi, to try and solve Jed's little mystery.

算我一个。

Sign me up.

走吧。

Let's go.

杰德这个问题，到底哪里特别吸引你？

What is it about Jed's question that is so interesting to you?

我觉得杰德问的这个问题，其实我也一直有同样的疑问，我相信很多人也都有。

I think Jed's question is a question that I have had personally and that I think a lot of us have.

这正好落在一个特别微妙的点上——甜的，或者按这儿的情况说，是咸的——就是生活中那些我们天天见、却从没细想过的事。

It's like exactly in this delectable sweet spot, or savory, I guess, in this case, of, like, something in the world that is all around us all the time.

所以它

And so it

就感觉像是其中之一

just felt like one of

就是那些看似微不足道的小问题，挺搞笑的，因为太小了，可实际上却牵扯到城市的本质，还有我们每天走过、周围处处可见的东西。

those things that is, like, a tiny question, and it's kind of funny because it's so small, but it actually touches on, like, the fabric of cities and just the the things we walk around and are surrounded by every day.

所以我特别想走出去，走上街头，弄清楚到底怎么回事。

So I am eager to get out there and hit the streets and figure out what's going on.

去吧。

Go for it.

我真想听听答案。

I'd love to hear the answer.

不用自己亲自去跑，这让我更想看了。

And not having to go out and do it myself makes it even more enticing to me.

对。

Yes.

让我来负责这个。

Let me do this one.

让我来跑一趟。

Let me ride.

大家好，欢迎收听《星球金钱》。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.

我是亚历克西·霍罗维茨-加齐。

I'm Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi.

我是亚历克斯·戈德曼。

And I'm Alex Goldman.

我想我们都经历过这样的时刻：环顾四周，突然发现一条街上挤着三家星巴克，或者机场候机厅里到处都是麦当劳。

I think we've all had those moments of looking around the world, and all of a sudden, you'll be surrounded by three Starbucks on a given street or a handful of McDonald's lining the halls of an airport terminal.

感觉就像在默默观察一场巨大的企业博弈，虽然看不太清，但就在你身边上演。

Sort of feels like you're watching the ebb and flow of some titanic corporate battle you can just barely see.

所以当杰德告诉我们，短短几步之内就碰上三家韦策尔时，我们就知道这背后一定有更大的故事。

So when Jed flagged for us three Wetzels all within spitting distance of each other, we knew there was some bigger story under there.

今天这期节目，我们将深入探究椒盐卷饼的供应链，看看韦策尔是怎么占领这个地铁站的。

So today on the show, we go deep inside the pretzel supply chain to find out how Wetzels took over this subway station.

我们会听到一个人追逐自己咸香版美国梦的故事，了解消费者行为和特许经营的运作方式，当然，途中还会有很多意想不到的转折。

We'll hear of one man's journey to his own salty American dream, learn about consumer behavior and how franchises work, and, of course, there will be plenty of twists along the way.

《It's Been a Minute》是NPR的一档关于流行文化的播客，每期开头都会问三个问题。

Every episode of It's Been a Minute, NPR's What's Happening in Culture podcast starts by asking three questions.

是谁？

Who?

是怎么回事？

How?

为什么偏偏是现在？

Why now?

只要文化圈在讨论，我们就跟进分析。

If the culture's asking it, we're talking about it.

在NPR，我们支持你保持好奇，尽情探索你感兴趣的文化话题。

At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and indulge your cultural curiosity.

无论你在哪个平台听播客，都关注《It's Been a Minute》，我们会帮你拆解那些刷屏的热门话题。

Follow It's Been A Minute wherever you get your podcasts, and we'll break down the zeitgeisty topics that are filling your feed.

明白了。

Okay.

所以今天这期节目，我们马上就开始播放那个基于我小小采访经历的‘Hyperfixed’故事。

So for today's episode, we're gonna hit play on that Hyperfixed story based on my little reporting journey in just a minute.

为了铺垫背景，我一开始想解开杰德那团乱麻般的谜团，然后就把调查工作交给了你，亚历克斯，还有你的团队来制作这期节目。

To set things up, I set out to untangle Jed's pretzel based mystery and then handed over that reporting to you, Alex, and your team to put the episode together.

这对我可太好了，因为活儿都让你们干了。

Which worked out great for me because you did all the hard work.

我真替你高兴。

You know, I love that for you.

我的调查从一个可能再明显不过的地方开始——给韦茨尔椒盐卷饼公司打了电话。

And I began my quest in maybe an obvious place by calling up Wetzel's Pretzels corporate.

就是通过这通电话，我认识了一位特别开朗的先生，叫约翰·费舍尔。

And that is how I met a jovial man named John Fisher.

当别人问你平时是做什么的？

When people say, what's your job?

我就回答：我的工作就是把椒盐卷饼送到大家手里。

It's my job is to bring pretzels to the people.

我手上还戴着个腕带呢。

I even have a wristband on.

这就是把 pretzels 带给每个人。

This is pretzels to the people.

这差不多就是我们的口号了。

It's, like, kind of our mantra.

只要有 people，就应该有 pretzels。

Like, wherever there's people, there should be pretzels.

约翰上个月刚退休。

John retired just last month.

但我跟他聊的时候，他是 Wetzel's Pretzels 的开发主管，负责帮加盟商选址和开店。

But when I spoke with him, he was the head of development for Wetzel's Pretzels, which means it was his job to help the company's franchisees find and build successful locations.

这个口号可不只是句空话。

And that mantra, it's not just a catchphrase.

它其实是 Wetzel's 商业策略的简明表达。

It's kind of a shorthand for Wetzel's business strategy.

这也部分回答了杰德的问题。

It also holds part of the answer to Jed's questions.

为此，我们直接播放一段《Hyperfixed》节目的片段，这次由亚历克斯主导。

And for that, we're just gonna play an excerpt of that Hyperfixed episode where Alex takes the reins.

好的。

Okay.

还记得几分钟前，亚历克斯提到，这个问题可能是理解为什么威特尔的店铺、星巴克、麦当劳这些品牌会集中出现在美国城市街道上的关键吗？

So remember a couple minutes ago when Alexi was talking about how this question might be the key to understanding not just why there are clusters of Wetzel's, but why there are clusters of Starbucks and McDonald's and all of these other brands that we see lining the streets of American cities?

不过，约翰当然没法谈其他公司的选址策略，毕竟他不在那些公司工作。

Well, John can't actually speak to the other real estate strategies behind those other companies because, obviously, he doesn't work for those other companies.

但他能百分百肯定的是，威特尔椒盐卷饼的选址需求，和那些其他品牌完全不同，因为没人会专门跑一趟买椒盐卷饼。

But what he can say with 100% certainty is that the real estate needs of Wetzel's Pretzels are pretty different from the needs of those other companies because pretzels just aren't the kind of product that people go out of their way to buy.

人们不会开车说：‘我去买个椒盐卷饼吧’，然后开到商场，绕停车场转十五分钟，好不容易停好车，走进去，买个卷饼，再出来。

People don't get in their car and say, I'm gonna go get a pretzel, and I'm gonna drive to the mall, walk fifteen minutes in the parking lot, go in through, try to park in, and and get a pretzel and then come out.

对吧？

Right?

他们去商场的时候，顺手买个pretzel而已。

They're gonna go to the mall and happen to get a pretzel while they're there.

在零售行业，这种东西有个专门的叫法。

In the world of retail, there's a name for this kind of thing.

叫冲动型商品。

It's called an impulse product.

和那些人们特意出门去买的商品不同，冲动型商品的特点就是，根本没人计划着要买它。

And unlike destination products, which are the kind of things people go out into the world with the intention of buying, impulse products are defined by the fact that nobody's really planning on buying them.

那怎么让人买下本来没打算买的东西呢？

So how do you get people to buy something they didn't plan to buy?

对Wetzel's来说，关键就是让pretzel去找人。

For Wetzel's, it's all about bringing pretzels to the people.

把门店开在人流量大、显眼的地方，让人走路时就能看到，再沿着同一条路线多开几家，尽可能多地增加顾客重复接触的机会，只要地点撑得住就行。

It's about placing their storefronts in high traffic, high visibility areas where people are already walking around, and then placing additional storefronts along that same route to create as many opportunities for repeat exposure as the location can feasibly sustain.

他们的商业模式完全是靠冲动消费驱动的。

The business model is impulse driven.

所以我是在他们路线的不同时间、不同地点抓住他们，甚至先在某个地方让他们闻到香味、产生念头，等他们第二次看到的时候，就忍不住了：哎呀，真扛不住啊。

And so, you know, I'm capturing people at different places, in different times within their route, or I'm even, like, exposing them to the thought and the smell at one place where then they see the second time, and they're like, ah, I can't resist.

对。

Yes.

我有一次躲过去了，但第二次就没逃掉。

I escaped once, but not the second time.

我现在就想要一个。

I I need one now.

这是一种策略，一种美味嗅觉上的消耗战。

It's a strategy of attrition, of delicious olfactory attrition.

我的意思是，这部分确实说得通。

I mean, obviously, this part makes sense.

对吧？

Right?

这些 pretzel 越是出现在你眼前，香味越是在你鼻子里绕，你就越容易买下本来根本没打算买的东西。

The more these pretzels are in your face, the more their smell is in your nose, the more likely you are to buy this thing you didn't intend to buy.

但对我们来说，真正的问题是，这些韦策尔门店会不会互相抢生意？还是说它们能避开供需规律？

But the real question for us is, aren't all of these Wetzels eating into each other's profits, or are they somehow immune to the laws of supply and demand?

你觉得在同一个区域开多家韦策尔门店，什么时候是合理的？什么时候又会反而蚕食自己的销量，或者让市场过度饱和？

How do you think about when it makes sense to have multiple Wetzel's locations in the same broad space versus the risk of cannibalizing your own sales or oversaturating the place?

是的。

Yeah.

这确实很特别。

It's it's it's really unique.

我以前在一家披萨公司上班，卖的是带回家自己烤的披萨。

I used to work for a pizza company, and it was a take and bake pizza company.

你只有打算买披萨的时候才会特意去那儿。

You didn't go there unless you planned on buying a pizza.

那是一种专程购买的行为，对吧？

It was an ultimate destination purchase, right?

你不会只是闲逛时顺手买个生披萨，你心里清楚自己是专门冲着那家店去的。

You don't just happen to walk around and buy a raw pizza and you know you kind of know that you're going to go there, right?

有意思的是，那种终极目的地型的模式，你开一家店，如果五英里外再开一家，加盟商就会很生气，说我的顾客都跑到那边去了，我的销售额要损失百分之二十。

So what's interesting is you have the ultimate destination type of concept where you build a store and if you put a store five miles away, franchisees really mad because, hey, I have customers coming from over there and, you know, I'm gonna lose 20% of my sales.

但旺策尔恰恰相反。

Wetzel's is kind of the opposite of that.

我们真的见过同一个商场里开五家店的情况，因为我们卖的是冲动型消费产品。

We literally have malls that have five stores in the same mall because we're an impulse product.

对我们来说，关键就看商场够不够大、人流量够不够多，能不能支撑起商场里多种冲动消费场景。

For us, it's really just about is the mall big enough or is there enough traffic and different occasions to support different impulse purchases in that mall?

开第二家店的时候，会不会互相抢生意？

And is there cannibalization when you open a second store?

会有一点，但影响很小。

A little bit, but not very much.

这真的很惊人。

It's pretty amazing.

我刚来的时候，其实挺意外的。

Think I was surprised when I got here.

我当时就想，真的假的？

Was like, really?

同一个商场里能开两家店？

You can have two stores in the same mall?

我以前真没见过这种事。

I've never seen that before.

现在我甚至在一些商场里开了三到四家，因为这完全取决于冲动消费的特点。

And now I'm sitting here putting three and four in some malls because it's really about that impulse nature.

顾客并不是专门为了买你的产品才去那里的。

So they're not going there specifically for you.

不管是地铁站、主题公园还是体育场，你都要根据人流量来设置不同的点位，好服务他们。

You know, whether it's a subway or a theme park or a a stadium, you're gonna have different locations based on where the people are to service them.

并不是所有行业都能这么操作。

And so, not a lot of businesses can do that.

支撑这种模式的另一个重要因素是，总部不允许不同加盟商在同一栋楼里开门店。

One of the other big factors undergirding this model is that corporate Wetzel's will not let different franchisees open storefronts under the same roof.

所以，只要你看到街上有一群韦茨尔的椒盐卷饼店，就知道它们虽然在同一栋楼里，但都是同一个人开的。

So anytime you see a cluster of Wetzel's Pretzels in the wild, know that every storefront under the same roof is owned by the same person.

它们之间其实并不互相竞争，哪怕有互相抢生意的情况，也至少是事先计划好的。

They aren't actually competing with each other, and any cannibalization that's happening has been at least partially planned.

有些加盟商还会在同一地点开第二家店，就是为了防止竞争对手抢走这个位置。

Also, some franchisees will open additional locations in the same space just to make sure that those spaces don't get taken by the competition.

这些聚集的店铺，更像是一种防御性的布局策略。

So these clusters function more like a defensive mapping sort of strategy.

另一点很重要的是，公司对所有加盟店的选址拥有最终决定权。

The other big thing is that the company gets final approval on all franchise locations.

因为他们在商场、交通枢纽和活动场所最成功，所以这些聚集点大多也集中在这几类地方。

And because they've had the most success in malls and transport hubs and event spaces, that's where most of these clusters will be.

所以在这个情况下，就是说，嗯。

So in this case, it's like, okay.

对普通路人来说，可能会觉得奇怪：这两家椒盐卷饼摊离得这么近，干嘛要开两个？

These locations may seem to a layman like me walking through being like, how why would you possibly have these two pretzel stands so close to each other?

不过，利润才是最好的证明吧？

Well, the proof is sort of in the profits?

我觉得得看每个品牌的特点，以及它在所谓的‘冲动消费光谱’上处于什么位置。

I think you have to look at every concept and what works for that concept, where they are on that I'll call it the destination impulse spectrum.

对。

Yes.

如果你处在冲动消费的高端，那在附近开好几家店来抢客流是完全可行的。

And if you're on the very high side of the impulse spectrum, you probably can get away with having several locations very close to each other to capture the traffic.

但如果你处在光谱的另一端，那就千万别这么干。

And if you're on the other side of that spectrum, you you probably don't wanna think about doing that.

那样只会互相抢生意，根本行不通。

It'd probably be, you know, a lot of cannibalization and not really work.

是的。

Yeah.

现在我们明白为什么这些店都挤在一起了。

So now we know why these locations are clustered so close together.

也就是说，我们理论上明白了它们为什么设在那里。

That is to say, we know why they're there in theory.

但我们还是想知道，这种策略在大西洋巴克莱车站到底有没有效果。

But we still wanted to know if this strategy was actually working in the Atlantic Barclays station.

那三家店面真的赚钱吗？

Were the three storefronts actually making money?

而我们知道该去问谁。

And we knew just who we had to ask.

广告之后，听听大西洋大道韦茨尔店背后的那个人怎么说。

After the break, answers from the man behind the Atlantic Avenue Wetzel's.

本周《NPR新闻人物》节目，缅因州参议员候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳，一位贴近工薪阶层的民主党人，主打一个核心信息：政治体系偏袒富人。

This week on NPR's Newsmakers, Maine senate candidate Graham Plattner, a working class democrat leaning into one message, that the political system is rigged to favor the wealthy.

我们唯一该指责的，是上面。

There's only one direction we need to be pointing fingers, and that is up.

这跟左右派没关系。

It's not left and right.

这个说法能帮民主党在今年的中期选举中赢得参议院吗？

Can that message help Democrats take the Senate in this year's midterms?

格雷厄姆·普拉特纳，本周出现在NPR《新闻人物》节目中。

Graham Platner, this week on NPR's Newsmakers.

欢迎在您收听播客的平台观看或收听。

Watch or listen wherever you get podcasts.

当我刚开始调查大西洋巴克莱车站那群椒盐卷饼店的谜团时，很快就意识到，最能回答杰德问题的人名叫里基·阿拉姆。

When I first started looking into the mystery of the Atlantic Barclays pretzel cluster, it became clear that the person best equipped to answer Jed's question was a man named Ricky Alam.

因为经过一番调查，我发现里基拥有那三家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店，还有全美其他十多家分店。

Because after a little bit of digging, I found out that Ricky owned all three of those Wetzel's Pretzels, along with more than a dozen others around the country.

有几周时间，里基似乎不太愿意跟我交谈。

Now for a few weeks, Ricky did not seem super eager to talk to me.

但有一天，我终于联系上了他，他邀请我去他第一家韦茨尔椒盐卷饼店看看。

But one day, I finally got him on the phone, and he invited me to come visit him at the site of his first Wetzel's Pretzels store.

那家店开在洛杉矶郊区一个大型商场里，典型的那种你可能会联想到‘谷地女孩’的地方。

It was at a mall deep in Suburban LA, kind of place you might associate with Valley Girls.

事实上，我发现这正是电影《独领风骚》里的那个购物中心。

And in fact, I found out it was literally the mall from the movie Clueless.

明白了。

Okay.

测试一下。

Testing.

测试一下。

Testing.

我是亚列克西。

It's Alexi.

今天是3月19日，星期四，太平洋时间凌晨3点10分。

It is Thursday, March 19 at 03:10 Pacific time.

我刚到加州谢尔曼橡树的西菲尔德购物中心，这次是专门来寻访 pretzel 的。

I've just gotten to the I think it's the Westfield Mall in Sherman Oaks, California, and I am on a a sort of pretzel mission.

我已经跟Wetzel's Pretzels总部的约翰·费舍尔聊过了。

I've talked to John Fisher up at Wetzel's Pretzels HQ.

他给我讲了公司通常是怎么考虑的

He walked me through kind of the basics of how companies think about

在什么情况下，相邻开几家加盟店才划算。

when it makes economic sense to have, a couple franchise locations near each other.

不过，我们这次来，就是想直接听听加盟店老板怎么说。

But, we've come here to get it straight from the franchisee's mouth.

好的。

Okay.

马上开始。

Here it goes.

什么都没有。

Nothing.

我刚把车停好，咱们去找里基吧。

I've just parked, and let's go find Ricky.

好的。

Okay.

这事儿有点离谱，但实在太好笑了，我非得跟你分享一下。

So this is a little off story, but it made me laugh so much that I wanted to share.

亚历克西，你平时可不怎么逛商场。

Alexi, you're not much of a mall rat.

是啊，我不逛。

I'm not.

你小时候

You didn't

从来没去过商场吧。

grow up going to the mall.

我听说你把Sbarro念成‘shbarro’，这可太明显了，像我这种商场常客一听就懂。

I actually heard you pronounced sbarro, shbarro, which is a huge red flag for mall rats like me.

我觉得这发音听着挺有格调的。

I thought it sounded elevated.

对啊。

Yeah.

这地方挺高档的。

It's fancy.

所以当你带着录音设备和一个超大的麦克风走进商场时，我一点都不意外，你马上就被人拦下了。

So I wasn't surprised to learn that just minutes after you walked into the mall with recording gear and a giant microphone, you got stopped.

是的。

Yeah.

我一进去就被商场保安拦住了，他们好像对随便有人在走廊里录 podcast 挺敏感的。

I was, like, basically immediately intercepted by mall security who seemed to be kind of sensitive about having random podcasters wandering the halls recording stuff.

但我跟他们解释了我没什么恶意，还顺带问了他们对商场里这种店铺聚集现象的看法，比如韦茨尔就在里面。

But I did convince them of the purity of my intentions, and I even started asking them their opinion about this clustering of different types of stores like Wetzel's in the mall.

他们听起来又无聊又困惑，最后干脆放我走了。

And they just seemed sort of, like, bored and confused enough that they just let me go.

就在我快走开的时候，我看到了里基。

And that's just about when I saw Ricky.

我远远就看见里基了。

I see Ricky in the distance.

在这儿呢

There we

走吧。

go.

嗨。

Hey.

最近怎么样？

How you doing?

还不错。

Good.

你呢？

How are you?

你是Ricky吧？

Ricky, I presume?

见到你真好。

Good to see you.

我也很高兴见到你。

Good to see you too.

真是荣幸。

What a what a pleasure.

哦，不客气。

Oh, no problem.

我也是。

Same here.

里奇当了二十年的Wetzel's加盟商了。

Ricky's been a Wetzel's franchisee for the last twenty years.

据他所说，椒盐卷饼是他实现美国梦的起点。

And the way he tells it, pretzels were kind of like his gateway to his American dream.

九十年代初，里奇从洛杉矶搬到孟加拉国后，做过各种零工。

After moving from LA to Bangladesh back in the early nineties, Ricky worked a series of odd jobs.

但他心里一直有个目标，就是拥有一份属于自己的生意。

But in his heart, there was always one goal, to have a business of his own.

于是里基开了一家酒类商店，结果惨败。

So Ricky opened a liquor store, which failed miserably.

接着他做起一项生意，在商场的摊位卖彩绘的寄居蟹。

Then he started a business that sold painted hermit crabs from kiosks at the mall.

那生意做得还不错，但他想要一个更长久稳定的事业。

And that one worked out pretty well, but he wanted something that felt more permanent.

就在那时，他开始关注特许经营项目。

And that's when he started looking at franchises.

在孟加拉国，椒盐卷饼并不流行，但他在美国的这些年让他明白，美国人特别爱吃热乎乎的面点。

Pretzels aren't like a big thing in Bangladesh, but his years in The United States taught Ricky that Americans love hot dough.

所以他2004年开了这家Wetzel's，不到一年半，就在同一个商场里开了第二家店。

So he opened this Wetzel's in 2004, and within a year and a half, he opened a second location right here in the same mall.

不到一年半，我在一楼开了第二家店。

Within a year and a half, I opened the second location on the 1st Floor.

那对这家店的生意造成了一点影响。

And that took a hit on this one a little bit.

第一家店的生意下降了百分之十五。

15% business dropped from the first location.

但不到六个月，生意就恢复了。

But within six months, it came back.

不管第一家店之前卖的是什么，生意都回来了。

Whatever the business I was doing on the on the first location, it came back.

第二家店自己也做起了自己的生意。

Second location is doing its own business.

我觉得再过几年，我又开了第三家店。

And I think within another few years, I was able to open another location.

再过几年，又开了一家。

And in a few years, another location.

是的。

So yeah.

我的目标就是每隔一年至少开一家新店。

I mean, goal was to open at least one location every other year or whatnot.

那您总共开了多少家？

And how many have you opened in total?

东西部加起来一共17家。

17 locations, combined East and, and West.

也就是说17家。

So 17 locations.

听起来简直像个椒盐卷饼帝国啊。

I mean, that sounds like a little pretzel empire.

到目前为止，一切顺利。

So far, so good.

那你是从什么时候开始

And when did

觉得做面团这行 eventually 能赚大钱？

you get a sense that getting into the dough business might eventually translate into rolling in the dough?

你知道的，不是所有做面团的生意都能让你发财，别忘了这一点。

You know, not every dough business is gonna make you the dough, remember.

风险总是存在的。

There is always risk.

就算是成熟的生意，也得确保位置选对了。

Even the proven business, you gotta make sure the location is right.

那你怎么判断一个位置是不是合适呢？

But how do you make sure that a location is right?

你怎么确定一个商场能撑得起第二家店，或者地铁口加商场能撑得起三家？

How do you decide if a mall can support a second storefront or if a subway slash mall can support three?

我们完全看人流量来决定。

We are driven by where people are.

这么说吧。

Let's put it this way.

我们会坐下来，亲手数一数有多少人从潜在店铺前经过。

So we do sit down and count, literally hand count how many people passing by in front of this potential location.

人流量必须达到一定数量，我们才会开店。

So there is a certain amount of traffic has to pass by and then we open.

所以，在考虑开设第二家店时，我们也会做同样的事。

So to take in that consideration to open a second location is that we do the same thing.

不管是同一家商场、同一个地铁站，还是机场之类的地点，我们都会去实地考察。

Going to the second location, if it's within the same mall or same train station or even the airport or what have you.

我们照样会去数人流量。

We do the same counting.

有多少人经过？

How many people passing by?

这些是同样的客流吗？比如二楼和一楼的区别？

Are these the same traffic, 2nd Floor versus 1st Floor?

在开第二家店之前，这些因素我们都会仔细评估。

We take all those under consideration before you open the second location.

你们是怎么数的？

How do you count?

用什么应用程序，还是手动计数？

Do you have like an app or a little?

以前，直到现在，我还在用那种手动计数器。

Well, back in the days, even still as of right now, I have one of those clicker.

对。

Yeah.

但现在有了手机应用，还有各种先进的软件可用。

But now, you have an app, you have all the sophisticated software and whatnot.

Wetzel's 确实会做足功课，但我还是喜欢亲自来坐一会儿，看看有多少人经过。

Yes, Wetzel's do their due diligence, but at the same time, I like to come in and sit down just like this, and I wanna see how many people passing by.

我会用手机打开计时器，亲自数人数。

And I count, literally, with the phone, I put a timer, and I count.

你有没有一个目标人数，或者想达到的基准？

And is there a number that you wanna see or some sort of mark you're trying to get to?

每小时至少得有1500到1700人经过才行。

You gotta have 15 to 1,700 people every given hour.

明白了。

Okay.

每小时一万五千到一万七千人。

15 to 1,700 an hour.

对。

Yeah.

Ricky说，他在周末高峰期通常会期待这样的客流量。

Ricky said that he'd typically wanna see these kinds of numbers during high traffic weekend hours.

工作日的数字可能会低很多。

They might be much lower during weekdays.

Ricky强调，这并不是一门精确的科学。

And Ricky stressed that this is not a perfect science.

有时候，人流量并没有像预期那样转化为销量。

Sometimes he says the foot traffic just doesn't convert to sales in the way you thought it would.

有时候，你以为稳稳当当的人流会突然消失，这就引出了我们当前的问题：大西洋巴克莱车站附近那家Wetzel's椒盐卷饼店到底赚钱吗？

And sometimes the foot traffic you thought you could count on just suddenly dries up, which brings us to the question at hand about whether or not the cluster of Wetzel's Pretzels at the Atlantic Barclays station is actually profitable.

所以当Ricky在2016年开设第一家大西洋区门店时，那地方看起来简直是完美选址。

So when Ricky opened his first Atlantic storefront in 2016, it seemed like a perfect location.

正如你刚才听到的，Wetzel's Pretzels 在商场、交通枢纽和活动中心这类地方表现最好，而这家店正好兼具了这三者的优势。

As you've already heard, Wetzel's Pretzels does best in places like malls and transit hubs and event centers, and this first location seemed to offer a bit of all of those things.

店铺开在商场里，正上方是地铁站，马路对面就是活动中心。

The spot was in a mall, above a subway station, across the street from an event center.

好几年里，一切都顺风顺水，仿佛占尽了天时地利。

And for several years, it felt like getting the best of all of these worlds.

但后来疫情来了。

And then COVID hit.

和这座城市里许多其他商家一样，大西洋终点站的这家店被迫关门停业。

And like so many other businesses in the city, the Atlantic terminal Wetzel's was forced to shut down.

问题是，三个月后重新开门，疫情前的生意却再也没有回来。

But the thing is that when the store reopened three months later, the pre pandemic business just didn't come back.

和2018到2019年相比，我的生意下滑了。

My business dropped compared to 02/1819.

下降了将近四到五成。

It dropped 40, almost 50%.

下降了四成到五成。

40 or 50%.

我当时一度考虑关掉店铺，但没法这么做，因为我有责任在身。

So I was in a situation that I thought about shutting it down, but I couldn't do it because I have the obligation.

我签了长期合同。

I signed the long term contract.

因为这份长期租约，里基只能一直开着灯。

Because of this long term lease, Ricky was forced to leave the lights on.

接下来的几年里，他在大西洋大道的门店一直亏本经营。

And for the next couple years, he took a loss at the Atlantic Avenue location.

几年前的一天，房东找到里基，提了一个建议。

And then one day a few years ago, the landlord came to Ricky with a proposition.

他说地铁站里有两个零售铺位空着，一个在一楼，一个在二楼。

He said that he had a couple of retail locations available inside the subway terminal, one on the 1st Floor and one on the 2nd.

这两个铺位小得像储物间，而且都没法装厨房。

These locations were about the size of broom closets, and they didn't have kitchens.

从技术上讲，这两个地方相隔还不到一百英尺。

And technically, they were only about a 100 feet from one another.

但因为它们在地铁站里，所以能做商场那个店做不到的事——直接服务通勤客。

But because they were inside the subway station, they could do something that the mall location couldn't, cater to commuters directly.

里基其实不想同时接手这两个点，但这是个一并接受或全都不要的交易。

Ricky didn't really wanna take on both locations, but it was an all or nothing deal.

于是里基把两个都接了下来，他的生意这才开始好转。

So Ricky took both, and his fortunes began to change.

这两个分店其实帮我在商场里撑住了生意，毕竟楼上的主店，我还在亏钱。

Those two satellite location actually helped me to sustain the business within this mall because upstairs main location, I'm still suffering.

所以，拓展到其他地方，某种程度上是为了弥补主店的亏损？

So the idea to expand to the other locations was kind of to offset the losses that were happening in the main one in a way?

说实话，也不完全是这样。

Not exactly, to be honest with you.

我的想法是，楼上那才是我烤制点心的地方。

My thought was upstairs, that's where I bake my goods.