Data-driven Marketing Strategy with Marketing Mix Modeling

我是普里西拉·麦金尼，小雀营销公司的首席执行官，也是这里的‘鸟妈妈’。

I'm Priscilla McKinney, CEO and Mama Bird here at Little Bird Marketing.

如果你还不知道的话，我同时也是LinkedIn上的影响力人物。

And in case you didn't know, I'm also a LinkedIn influencer.

我还特别热衷于教其他B2B专业人士如何在LinkedIn上建立影响力。

I also have a passion for teaching other B2B professionals how to become influential on LinkedIn.

现实是，很少有人能真正高效地使用LinkedIn。

The reality is that very few people are using LinkedIn efficiently or effectively.

效率很重要，毕竟没人有空浪费在这上面。

Efficiency is important because ain't nobody got time for that.

如果你不注意，社交媒体很容易变成一个黑洞。

And if you're not careful, social media can be a black hole.

等你回过神来，发现自己已经到了完全没想过去的地方，还不知道时间都去哪儿了。

When you emerge, you find you wound up in a place you never intended to go and you're wondering where all the time went.

有效也很关键，因为你一旦想讨好所有人，就会走上被所有人忽视的道路。

Being effective is important because the moment you try to be everything to everybody, you begin the journey of being nothing to nobody.

相反，我教的是思维转变，帮助你明确在领英上该实现什么目标，如何构建有战略性的社交网络，以及创作能打动受众、突破信息噪音的优质内容。

Instead, I teach a mindset shift and the skills to get clarity about what you need to accomplish on LinkedIn and how to build a strategic network and stellar content that resonates with the audience and gets heard above the noise.

网上那些小技巧多得是，根本不值钱。

Tips and tricks are a dime a dozen out there.

真正做对这件事，需要你投入资源。

Getting it done right requires an investment.

既需要时间，也需要金钱。

There's time and money.

我开设了一门为期十二周的课程。

I teach a course over twelve weeks.

你照样能把手头的工作做好，但在这段时间里，你会逐步改变行为习惯——这才是关键。

You can still get your job done just fine, but over that time you change behaviors and that's key.

每位学员的学费是三千美元。

The money is 3,000 per student.

如果你在犹豫值不值，建议你去我的领英个人主页看看几条学员的评价。

If you're wondering whether it's worth it or not, you should read a few of my recommendations on my LinkedIn profile.

这是他们说的话，不是我的。

Their words, not mine.

就像《闪舞》的主题曲唱的那样，让我们把你的热情变成现实。

As the Flashdance title song goes, let's take your passion and make it happen.

谁和我一起？

Who's with me?

了解更多，请访问 littlebirdmarketing.com/social-influence。

Learn more at littlebirdmarketing.com/social-influence.

大家好，欢迎收听《 perch 上的沉思》，由 Little Bird Marketing 公司出品的播客。

Hello, and welcome to Ponderings from the Perch, the Little Bird Marketing Company podcast.

今天我请来了一位搞科研的女性朋友。

I have today one of my women in research friends.

我们是死党。

We're besties.

我们即将一起参加CEO峰会。

We're gonna be at the CEO Summit together.

她今天特意为我打扮了头发。

She did her hair especially for me today.

我的意思是，你听好了。

I mean, let me just tell you.

如果你现在正在听，希尔莉看起来简直太棒了。

If you're listening right now, Hillary looks amazing.

但如果你了解希尔莉，这大概也不会让你太意外。

But that's not gonna come as much of a surprise if you know Hillary.

咱们直接切入正题吧，这场对话肯定会特别有趣，因为希尔莉和我一样，都处在多个领域的交汇点上。

So let's just dive This is gonna be such a fun and an interesting conversation because Hillary, like me, sits adjacent to many fields.

所以我们就直接开聊。

And so we're gonna just, like, dive in.

希尔莉，先介绍一下你自己，也说说你的公司吧，毕竟你这家公司可不一般。

Hillary, introduce yourself and tell us a little bit about your company because it is not the typical company I'm interviewing.

在正式提问之前，咱们得先铺垫一下背景。

So we do need to come up with some kind of context before I grill you.

欢迎来到节目，希拉里。

So welcome to the show, Hillary.

谢谢你邀请我，普里西拉。

Thank you for having me, Priscilla.

能来这儿真的很开心。

It's a joy to be here.

Mix Analytics 已经运营到第五年了。

Mix Analytics is now in our fifth year of operations.

我们对这一点特别兴奋。

We're really excited for that.

我们是一家证明营销价值的公司。

We are a company that proves the value of marketing.

Little Bird Marketing 负责执行和提供营销建议，而我的公司则在事后分析这些执行效果，计算它们的盈利和回报，再基于这些数据为未来的策略提供建议。

So where Little Bird Marketing is helping execute execute marketing and advise on marketing, my company comes in and looks at that execution retroactively to calculate the profitability of it and the returns, and then we help advise the strategy going forward with that information.

我们使用一种叫营销组合建模的技术，今天会详细聊聊，用来做这些计算，并模拟不同场景，为未来的营销预算做准备。

We use a technique called marketing mix modeling that we'll talk about today to run those calculations and run scenarios for future proofing the marketing budget.

好的。

Okay.

我喜欢这个。

I love this.

你得去搜一下希拉里。

And you've gotta look up Hillary.

她是希拉里·博恩达尔，拼写是 B-O-R-N-D-A-H-L。

It's Hillary Borndahl, and it's b o r n d a h l.

哦，我该把希拉里的拼写也说清楚的，因为她是单 L 的希拉里。

Oh, I should have spelled Hillary too because it's one l people.

好的。

Okay.

所以是单 L 的希拉里。

So it's Hillary with one l.

博恩达尔，去搜搜她，她在领英上，我知道这是个特别专业的领域。

Borndahl, look her up because she is on LinkedIn, and I know this is really a specialty field.

她是Mix Analytics的创始人兼首席执行官，今天我们来深入聊聊如何找出真正有效的做法。

So she is the founder and CEO at Mix Analytics, and we are gonna dive in about really the beauty of figuring out what's working.

这个问题在我这个行业可是老生常谈了，Hillary。

That is age old in my industry, Hillary.

人们总想花钱，因为他们必须看到回报。

It's like people want to spend money because they need that return.

他们需要扩大规模。

They need to scale.

他们需要打造更顺畅的销售漏斗，还有各种各样的营销理由，但大多数人根本搞不清哪些有效、哪些没用。

They need to have a better pipeline built and all kinds of reasons for marketing, but people really don't know what works and what doesn't.

说到这儿，我们可以回到那句老话。

In that, we can go back to that quote.

你的营销有一半是有效的。

It's like 50% of your marketing works.

只是你不知道到底是哪一半。

It's just you don't know which 50%.

所以我觉得，这个问题本质上是从数据的角度来切入的。

So I think this really comes at the issue from a data perspective.

你做营销组合建模的经历，其实和我从事的内容营销策略完全契合。

So your journey with marketing mix modeling really intersects with my world of content marketing strategy.

你能跟我聊聊，你是什么时候意识到营销组合建模有这么大潜力的吗？

So tell me a little bit about when you realized this marketing mix modeling potential.

就是那种突然醒悟的时刻——天啊。

Like, when you realized, oh my gosh.

这真的会彻底改变营销决策的方式。

This is gonna transform marketing decisions.

那种感觉是怎样的？

What did that feel like?

你又是怎么确定，这就是你要让公司全力投入的方向的？

How did you know that this is where you were going to really focus your company?

其实很早以前，我就意识到自己想把职业生涯专注在这个领域了。

It really started a long time ago when I realized I wanted to focus my career in this space.

我本科在加拿大朗商学院读的市场营销专业，是商科学士学位。

So I actually have a bachelor of commerce in marketing from Lang School of Business in Canada.

大学读到一半的时候，我参加了一个实习项目，有幸在一家叫Thompson Lightstone的小型营销公司工作，这家公司后来被Merits收购了。

And when I was doing a co op mid university, I had the opportunity to work at a boutique called Thompson Lightstone, which was acquired by Merits.

其实也是通过这次实习，我认识了所有做数字营销的同事。

I met all the dig guys through this actually.

那时候我就打定主意了。

And I decided, okay.

我当时决定要进入市场营销领域，专门钻研营销效果衡量这个方向。

In marketing, I'm going to go into the measurement side of marketing.

那是2001年的事了。

So this was like in 2001.

后来在职业生涯的发展过程中，我搬到了康涅狄格州，收到了一家叫模型分析集团的公司的入职邀请，那家公司当时在帮宝洁全球做营销组合建模的项目。

And through my career journey, I ended up in Connecticut being recruited to work at this company called The Modeling Group, which ran marketing mix modeling projects for Procter and Gamble globally.

那个转折点我到现在都记得清清楚楚。

So I remember the moment.

我清楚地记得，第一次面试我前老板戴夫·罗德里格斯的时候，他就已经在营销分析领域很有名了。

It's clear to me the moment I had an interview with my former boss, Dave Rodriguez, who is very well known in in the February.

午餐面试时，他跟我讲，他们用统计和数学来做市场营销研究。

And in the lunch interview, he started telling me we use statistics and we use math to run the research on marketing.

我当时就想，哇。

I thought, wow.

这听起来太棒了。

That sounds like phenomenal.

我一直喜欢洞察分析，但当看到数学和统计被用在这上面时，我真的被打动了。

Like, I've always loved insights, but this piece where you're adding math and stats to it, it really got me.

当我第一次看到报告出来的时候，我就意识到，这玩意儿会一直重要下去。

And so when I started to see the first reports come out of I realized, like, this is gonna be present for a really long time.

这正是市场总监和财务总监需要的东西，因为它能帮他们优化那50%的投入。

This is something that CMOs need, CFOs like, because it helps to optimize that 50%.

CEO们也喜欢，因为它就像一份清晰的绩效报告，说明团队正在往哪个方向走。

CEOs like it too because it's, like a good report card on the direction that their team is taking for a business.

但那一刻我才意识到，我有多渴望全身心投入进去。

But I did realize in that moment how much I wanted to dive in.

后来在尼尔森和凯度工作的这段时间里，我一直在搭建能覆盖全球业务的团队。

And across my journey at Nielsen and Kantar, I have been building up teams to support globally.

之后我下定决心，要出来自己闯一闯。

And then I decided I gotta do it on my own.

我特别欣赏你这个选择。

I love that.

那你刚才提到的这份报告

Well, you talk about this report.

能不能给从来没见过这份报告的人大概描述一下？

For those of us who've never seen one, in general, kinda describe it.

大家能从里面拿到什么样的数据？

What kind of data do people get?

首席营销官拿到之后会看到什么，才会忍不住惊叹呢？

What does that CMO see on their desk and say, oh my gosh.

所以现在就是这种情况？

That's what's happening?

对。

Yeah.

他们最关心的其实就是两个数字。

They care about two numbers pretty much.

他们想知道，营销投入在整体收入或利润中的贡献占比是多少。

They wanna know what's the contribution to revenue or profit of marketing investment as a contribution overall as a percentage.

第二个他们在意的数字是投资回报率。

And then the second number that they care about is the return on investment.

如果我投了一块钱进去，我能把这一块赚回来吗？

So if I'm putting $1 into the market, am I getting that dollar back?

是赚回来超过一块，还是连一块都赚不回来？

Am I getting more than a dollar, or am I getting less than a dollar?

通常来说，他们在短期衡量时就是看这个指标。

And typically, are looking at an at that in the short term in the measurement.

短期回报指的是广告投放当天或当周内发生的任何效果，通常以三个月为观察周期。

Short term returns are anything that happens from the day or week of marketing exposure with an ad stock period of about three months.

如果你感兴趣，我可以再详细解释一下。

And I can explain that a little bit more if you're interested.

好的。

Okay.

明白了。

Okay.

那咱们先来详细说说这个。

Well, let's explain that in a minute.

我问你个有点特别的问题，因为我的工作经常涉及买家画像的构建，你应该也知道，我们公司在这方面很有名。

Let me ask you kind of a bizarre question because my world involves a lot of buyer persona development, and I think you know this, that my company is really pretty well known for this.

我们帮企业针对这些买家画像制作内容，努力为不同人群打造更精准、更有深度的画像。

And we help companies develop content targeted to those buyer personas, and we try and create more meaningful persona profiles for different segments.

所以在做营销测试的时候，你们能不能也了解到，不只是哪些内容有效，而且是哪些内容对哪些人群有效？

So when you are testing the marketing, are you getting back any information about not only what's working, but what's working for whom?

也就是说，这里面细节很多吗？

Like, is there a lot of detail to it?

也许我们可以再深入讲讲这些报告的内容。

Maybe in that way, maybe dive into more detail of the reports.

有可能。

It can.

这要看底层的数据情况。

It depends on the underlying data.

要做这种分析，你需要两组关键数据：一组是交易或转化记录，另一组是营销曝光数据。

So to run this type of analysis, you need to include two key sets of data, and one is the transaction or conversion history, and the other is the marketing exposure.

这两组历史数据会在分析中被整合在一起。

And those two sets of data historicals are put together in this analysis.

如果有买家画像的话，只要转化记录能细化到这个层级，是完全可以做的。

So in the case of having buyer personas, it's possible to do that as long as the conversion history is available at that level.

比如我们的零售客户，如果他们的数据里已经做了这种细分，我们就能清楚分析出营销对每个细分群体的具体贡献。

So for example, retail clients of ours, if they have that level of segmentation built into their dataset, we can absolutely analyze how marketing has contributed to each of those segments.

在B2B领域，如果你能历史地记录买家画像数据，就可以在这个层面上做分析。

Or in a B2B world, if you're capturing the buyer persona data historically, you can run the analysis at that level.

报告会告诉你，每个画像的投入产出比是多少，营销对它们的贡献有多大，以及该如何优化。

And the reports will give you back what is the return on investment, what is the contribution of marketing to each of these personas, and then how do I optimize that?

优化可以看你在某个营销渠道上的总投入，也可以看你在某一周或某一个月的执行花费。

And the optimization can look at the absolute level of spend that you're putting into a marketing channel, or it could be how much I'm spending in a given week or month on an execution.

因为现在这个环境下，我们经常发现品牌在每周或每月的投入上太少了，根本撑不起品牌建设。

Because often we find right now in this climate, brands are spending too little on a per week or per month basis to support their brands.

他们把预算摊得太薄了。

They are spreading it too thin.

明白了。

Okay.

这太有意思了。

That is super interesting.

你刚才简直扔了个重磅真相。

I feel like you just gave us all a big truth bomb.

我想再深入聊聊这一点，因为你说的，希拉里，其实是在解释营销组合模型如何帮助企业优化跨渠道的营销投入。

So I wanna dive a little bit deeper on that because what you're talking about, Hillary, is really explaining how marketing mix modeling helps businesses optimize their marketing investments across channels.

我们都明白，现在不可能只靠单一方式了。

And we all know you can't do one thing anymore.

总有人问：营销里到底哪个是最重要的事？

People are like, what's the one thing we should be doing in marketing?

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

根本不存在这种单一方法。

That doesn't exist.

当然，大品牌对全渠道的理解很透彻，但不只是大品牌在把预算分散到各个渠道上。

There's of course, the large brands understand omnichannel very well, but it's not just the large brands that are spreading their investments across channels.

你能再详细说说这个吗？

So can you go a little deeper about that?

我觉得你刚才说的特别关键——很多人把营销预算摊得太薄了。

I really feel what you just said was super important that people are spreading their marketing budget too thin.

你的市场视角真是独特又深刻。

So you have such an interesting point of view and place of viewing the market.

你说预算太分散，那你觉得大家该怎么做才好？

So when you say that it's too thin, what would you recommend people do?

他们是不是该先选一个渠道，彻底摸清效果后再考虑扩展？

Should they go into one channel and make sure that they own it by measuring it first before they expand?

你作为专家，对此有什么建议？

Or what would you say is your expert opinion on that?

如果你从来没分析过营销数据，最好的起点是同时测试多个渠道、地区或客户群体。

If you've never analyzed your marketing before, the best place to start is with a series of tests of using an abundance of channels and geography locations or customer segments.

这样你才能积累足够丰富的历史数据，为未来的优化提供依据，知道哪些投入真正带来了回报。

That way you have a robust historical dataset to analyze, to optimize going forward, like what you know is actually going to be giving you those returns.

至于预算太分散，我们得小心别把五万美元的预算，每周撒一千块，全年均匀分布吧？

And on the spreading too thin, we have to just be careful that we're not going to take, say, a 50,000 budget and put $1,000 into the market every week across the year?

这种花法，到底能触达谁？

Like, who are we reaching with that spend?

所以看看你的媒体成本，弄清楚这笔投资能带来多少实际曝光量。

So look at your media cost and understand what are the absolute impressions I'm going to be getting from this investment.

营销组合模型的计算会告诉我们这个最低门槛是多少。

And the math of the marketing mix modeling will tell us that minimum threshold.

我们必须达到每周数十亿次的曝光，才有可能带来转化效果。

So we have to be hitting x billion impressions a week for this to be doing any conversion.

一旦你明确了媒体成本，就可以反过来推算出其他指标。

And then you work your way back once you know the media cost.

但没摸清自己的基准线之前，这事儿很难开展。

But it's hard to do that until you have a first to tell you your baseline.

这个观点我很赞同。

I love this point.

我们再深入聊聊背后的数学和科学原理，为什么你这么看重数据，它又是如何驱动这些出色决策的。

We're gonna talk a little bit more about the math and the science behind it and why you love data and why that really drives these amazing decisions.

我猜，一旦看到这些数据，人们对预算分配的信心会强得多。

I imagine that people can have so much more confidence in their decisions about their budget spend once they see this data.

在深入之前，我想先问个题外话，如果这跟你们日常的工作没什么关系，咱们也可以跳过。

Before we go into that, I wanna ask maybe a little sidebar that we don't need to go down to if it's not relevant to what you do day in and day out.

不过我知道你跟很多大型零售品牌合作，那你们在B2B领域也会用这套方法吗？会分析B2B的买家画像吗？

But I know you work with so many big retail brands, but are you working and using this methodology in the B2B area or looking at B2B buyer personas at all?

我们一直在尝试，但问题是很多客户根本不保存自己的数据。

We keep trying, and the problem is a lot of our clients don't hold their data.

所以我总跟大家说，哪怕你不喜欢数字和数据，也得把历史记录留下来。

So I keep telling everybody, even if you don't love numbers and data, you have to track your historicals.

你和我都是懂营销的女性。

So you and I are smart marketing women.

我们一直都在记录自己的LinkedIn数据。

We are always keeping a record of our LinkedIn data.

现在可没法回头去补很久以前的数据。

It's not something that you can go back and get too far retro right now.

所以你得自己建个数据库，持续保存下来。

So you have to keep a database of it.

所以我一直让我的市场负责人去帮我提取浏览量、曝光量、粉丝数这些数据，这样到了第五年年底，我就能清楚看到我们有机营销预算的增长情况。

So constantly, I'm having my marketing lead go in and pull my views, impressions, followers, all of those statistics so that I can actually eventually at the end of year five have, oh, here's how we grew this organic portion of our marketing budget.

但你可能想不到，还有那么多B2B公司根本没在做这件事。

But you would be surprised at how many B2B companies are not doing that.

所以当我第一次和他们开会时，他们根本拿不出这些数据。

So when I meet with them for the first session, they don't have it.

我就得告诉他们：你们得先跟踪记录一整年，到时候我们再回来给你们提建议。

And I have to say, well, you're gonna have to track it for the next year, and then we'll come back and advise.

我们真正取得最大成效的，反而是那些慈善机构客户，因为他们数据保存得特别好。

The most success we've actually had is with our charity clients because they have great records.

他们的董事会过去十多年一直保持着完整的记录。

Their boards are keeping great records back for over a decade.

这正是我现在最看重的领域，因为他们有这么完整的数据集，我可以帮他们深入分析。

And that's my favorite space right now because they have this great dataset that I can analyze for them.

明白了。

Okay.

这挺有意思的。

Well, that's interesting.

我很好奇咱们在B2B营销这块儿到底要往哪儿走。

I was really curious about where we're going with the B2B marketing.

确实更难一些。

It is more difficult.

目标群体也更细分。

It is more niched.

而且通常，不幸的是，预算也更少。

It is typically, unfortunately, often a smaller spend.

在B2B领域，我看到很多公司投入都不够。

The B2B area, I see underspending quite a bit.

那咱们还是回到你的领域吧，说说你最擅长的部分，也好听听你的专业见解。

So let's move back a little bit more to your world, your sweet spot so we can get a lot of your expertise.

你是一位备受认可的内容营销顾问。

So you are a respected content marketing consultant.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

你一路上接触了这么多数据和分析领域的专业人士。

You work with so many different data and analytics professionals along the way.

他们不仅用这种模式，还在不断叠加创新，真正塑造着营销的未来。

They are really shaping the future of marketing with not only this approach, but constantly building on top of it.

所以，你觉得人们开始意识到数据已经 mainstream，这件事最让你兴奋的是什么？

So tell me what excites you about people really coming into understanding that data is mainstream.

不是说你跟踪数据就有多特别。

Like, it's not this you're not special if you're tracking your data.

这不过是基本要求而已。

Like, that's just table stakes.

那你最近在聊这些话题时，最让你感到兴奋的是什么？

So what's exciting to you about conversations you're having around that?

越来越多公司正在内部组建专门的洞察与分析团队，里面都是懂数据的人才。

More and more companies are building out teams internally within the insights and analytics functions that have people who are savvy with data.

这让我很兴奋，因为在每个组织里，虽然我们通常先和洞察专家、市场人员或首席营销官开始对话，但我们现在也在内部找到那些不懂数据、不会编程的员工，这让我们能更快地完成分析。

And so that excites me because within each organization then, while we typically start our discussions with an insights professional or the actual marketer for the organization or the CMO, we are identifying contacts internally at these clients that no data, no coding, and it's helping us get to a place where we can run the analysis a lot faster.

我经常说，未来的首席营销官其实就是一个数据分析角色——在2020年代，要想当个合格的营销人，你必须对数据驾轻就熟。

So I say all the time, the future CMO role is actually a future analytics role that to be a marketer in the twenty twenties, you have to be comfortable with data.

越来越多的人开始对数据感到自在了。

And more and more people are getting comfortable with data.

目前在零售这类B2C领域，这种趋势比B2B更明显，但我看到它正在不断进步。

And that's on the B2C side in retail more, say, than B2B right now, but I am seeing it get better and better.

我很喜欢这一点。

I love that.

这不过是众多正在重塑我们日常思维方式的工具之一。

And so this is just one of those tools that now is reshaping how we think about day to day world.

说到首席营销官，我觉得大家都清楚，传统的CMO角色正在消亡。

And I have to say, you bring up the CMO, and I think we all know that traditional CMO role is going away.

其实这个趋势已经持续很久了。

I mean, it's been fading for a very, very long time.

我很喜欢听你这么说，这正是它真正演变的方向。

And so I love hearing you say your suggestion of really what it is becoming.

当然，这个位置还是需要人来做，但具体每天都在做些什么呢？

Of course, we need someone in that space, but what are they really doing day to day?

他们在看数据。

They're looking at data.

他们在深入分析这些数据。

They're really analyzing the data.

那你怎么把纯粹的数据分析——那些死磕数据的人——和实际应用连接起来呢？

So how do you bridge that gap between pure analytics, like just diehard data heads, and the practical applications?

因为说实话，这才是CMO这个角色该有的样子。

Because if we're honest, that's what that CMO role should be.

它应该是中间的那个环节：数据有了，但怎么在真实的人类世界里用起来？

It's kind of the in between of we have the data, but what should we do with it out in the actual human world?

所以你是怎么把这两端连起来的？我知道你既很有创意，又特别理性，你这种人真是少见，希拉里。

So how do you make that connect and kind of I know you're both a very creative person and a deeply analytical person, so you're a little bit of a unicorn, Hillary.

那你怎么把这一切整合起来呢？

So how do you bring it all together?

我们得在每个组织里做个利益相关者图谱，弄清楚在过程中需要向谁做普及，因为品牌营销人员通常更熟悉创意和商业那一块，对数据分析这一块就相对陌生。

We really have to do a stakeholder map at each organization and understand who we need to educate along the journey because the brand marketers associate brand marketers, they may have more of that commerce creative side education in the role compared to the analytics that we're bringing.

所以我们得一路陪着整个团队做教育，让大家都能从这些工作中获益。

So we have to educate the entire team along the way so that everyone can get value from the work.

每次做项目，我们都会先搞清楚：谁喜欢数字？

And that's just part of our project talk about each time is understanding, okay, who likes numbers?

谁对数学头疼？

Who doesn't like math?

但归根结底，作为执行营销活动的你，还有高层管理者，他们最关心的是：你花的每一块钱，能不能至少赚回来一块？

But at the end of the day, you as the marketer executing these campaigns and someone in senior management wants to know, are we getting at least a dollar back for every dollar you're getting?

如果你希望明年能拿到更多预算，或者不想让营销预算被砍掉——现在这话题可太普遍了——那你必须向公司证明，你确实带来了扎实的回报，而且是用数据分析把效果做到了最大化。

If you wanna get more budget next year or you don't wanna have your marketing budget taken away from you, which is more of the conversation right now, budget cuts, then you have to prove to the business that you're getting those solid returns and that you're leveraging the analytics to get the best possible outcome for your business.

通常来说，只要把这一点讲清楚，就能激起他们的兴趣，让他们愿意加入进来，分享自己的数据和策略，这样我们才能真正帮上忙。

And usually, though, that conversation sparks interest enough that we can get them along the way to join us in that endeavor and share their data, their strategy so that we can help them really.

确实如此。

And it's Yeah.

多年来，和我们长期合作的客户一起看到ROI一个季度接一个季度、一年接一年地提升，这种感觉真的很棒。因为你清楚，他们正在用数据淘汰无效的做法，同时加大对有效策略的投入。

A great feeling over the years, like, with our clients that we've been working with for a number of years now where you help to see that ROI improve quarter over quarter or year over year because you know that they are using the numbers to cut the things that don't work and then double down on the things that do.

我们先休息一下，我来介绍一下本节目的赞助商。

Let's take a quick break so I can tell you about this show's sponsor.

大家好。

Hi.

我是普里西拉·麦金尼，小雀营销的创始人兼CEO，也是一位妈妈。

Priscilla McKinney here, mama bird and CEO at Little Bird Marketing.

你有没有想过，为什么有些团队能实现突破性的成果，而另一些却原地踏步？

Ever wonder why some teams create extraordinary breakthroughs while others get left behind?

为什么有些协作能取得巨大成功，而有些却毫无起色？

Why some collaborative efforts create big wins while others fall flat?

我觉得我有些重要的见解可以分享。

I think I have some important insight.

在我的书里，《协作：为什么未来的工作奖励跨界融合的群体智慧》是一本帮你摆脱过时线性思维的好书。

In my book, Collaboration is the Why the Future of Work Rewards a Cross Pollinating Hive Mind is a great read to help you break free from outdated, linear thinking.

书中用短小精悍、适合忙碌专业人士的章节，带你掌握战略协作的核心要点，还有七个实用方法，帮你把学到的东西真正用起来。

In bite sized, timed chapters designed for busy professionals like you, you'll discover the fundamentals of strategic collaboration plus seven practical anchors to help you implement what you learn.

这不只是理论，而是一条切实可行的路线图，超越传统竞争，释放集体智慧与努力的力量。

This isn't just theory it's a practical roadmap that moves beyond traditional competition to harness the power of collective wisdom and effort.

你会学到如何构建强大的人脉网络，善用数字化转型，创造只有多元思维有意协作时才会出现的突破性时刻。

You'll learn how to build powerful networks, leverage digital transformation, and create breakthrough moments that only emerge when diverse minds work together intentionally.

这本书在亚马逊上就能买到，或者直接点播客简介里的链接。

Find the book on Amazon or just follow the link in the show notes.

有纸质版、Kindle版，还有有声版，我自己就是听的有声版。

It's available in paperback, Kindle, and even Audible where I read it myself.

如果你已经读过了，我很期待你在亚马逊上留个评价。

If you've already read it, I'd love an Amazon review.

这也提醒大家，如果你喜欢这个播客的内容，我们非常欢迎你在任何平台给个五星好评。

And that's a good reminder that if you like what you're hearing on this podcast, we'd certainly love a five star review wherever you listen.

天哪，希拉里。

Oh my gosh, Hillary.

就是这么说的。

Said there.

我经常跟人说，我们做的很多工作，其实是提供洞察和数据，帮你停止做一些没用的事。

I always tell people a lot of times what we do is provide the insights and the data so you can stop doing some stuff.

在营销里，总有人觉得你得做这个。

Like, there's an end in marketing of you could do this.

你得做那个。

You could do this.

你还可以做别的，但你说得对，关键是我们得让专业人士有勇气停下来，别管创意团队怎么说，更别管老板——天啊，有时候老板还硬逼着你该怎么做营销。

You could do that, but you hit the nail on the head there is that we need to be able to empower professionals to stop doing some things even though their creatives might be saying or heaven forbid, their CEO is telling them what to do with marketing.

各种声音都在往你身上压。

It's coming at them from a lot of different directions.

咱们该做这个。

We should do this.

我们得这么做，不然竞争对手都在做。

We should do this, or our competitor's doing this.

你看看这个。

Watch this.

但要能坐在这个位置上，有底气说‘不’。

But to be able to sit in that role and have the confidence and say, no.

我要把精力放在那些确实能为我们赚钱的事情上，至于那些一直没起色、或者根本没法衡量效果的事，就直接停掉——不管是什么原因，关键是把预算腾出来。

I'm gonna do the things that we know are making us money, and I'm going to stop doing these things either we have not been able to get any traction on, or we've not been able to measure properly, whatever the case, but getting that budget freed up.

咱们聊聊预算吧，因为这正是你我每天都要面对的现实。

So let's talk about budget because that is a reality of where you and I sit all the time.

我觉得，你们做数据分析的公司进来，确实能帮我们争取到更多预算。

I think, obviously, when you mix analytics as a firm, you guys can come in and really make a case for bigger budget.

但咱们更现实一点，手头有多少预算，就是多少预算。

But let's talk about more of our reality, which is the budget we got is the budget we got.

所以帮我理一理，你们接触的那些大公司，从上到下都是怎么回事？

So help me understand the large companies that you work with all the way down.

所以我想问的是，小到什么程度才算太小了？

So kind of almost the question I have is how small is too small?

因为我觉得很多中小公司都觉得，这事儿只适合大公司做。

Because I think a lot of smaller and medium sized companies think, oh, this is only for the big guys.

你帮我分析一下这个误区。

So help me break that down.

对。

Mhmm.

为什么这事儿不是只有大公司才需要做？

Why is it not just for the big guys?

为什么每个人都该做？小企业怎么做？中型企业又该是什么样子？

Why does everybody need to be doing this, and what would it look like for a small business, and what would it look like for a medium sized business?

我们对所有项目的数据做了一次分析。

So we did an analysis of our database of all of our projects.

我们管这个叫‘行业基准报告’。

We called it the norms report.

我们去年秋天办了一场大型活动，2025年很快就会发布美国市场的结果。

We had a big event in the fall, and we'll be releasing soon in 2025 US results.

但我们一开始是从加拿大入手的。

But we started with Canada.

我们分析了加拿大三年内高达340亿美元的销售数据。

So we analyzed $34,000,000,000 of sales data in Canada over a three year period.

发现最多只有2%到3%的收入被重新投入了市场营销。

We found that only two to 3% max was being invested back into marketing.

有些情况甚至只有1%到2%的营收用在了营销上。

There were cases where one to 2% of revenue was being invested in marketing.

但如果你真想扩大品牌影响力，这个比例应该高得多。

And honestly, it should be much higher if you are trying to grow your brand.

现在这个经济环境下，后疫情时代，你更应该至少拿出4%的投入来保护和建设品牌。

And right now you are in a state of protecting your brand in this economy, in our post pandemic world, you should be investing at least 4% in the brand.

那我们就从这里开始说起。

And so let's start there.

不管你的企业规模大小，都必须在营销上投入。

Regardless of the size of your business, you need to invest in marketing.

我本身是个小企业主，深知每年要拿出几万美元投在营销上的压力。

And I'm a small business owner, and I know the challenge of saying, okay, I'm gonna invest these tens of thousands of dollars in marketing each year.

目前我还看不到回报，因为这就像一个正在进行的大规模案例研究——我一边参加各种展会，一边收集数据。

And I don't know the returns yet because it's like a giant case study where I'm collecting my data as I go to each conference.

我收集潜在客户信息，再跟进销售数据。

I'm collecting the leads, and then I'm collecting the sales data.

现在还不好说，因为我到今年为止，还没积累足够的历史数据来评估这笔投入。

And I don't know yet because I have until this year, I haven't really had enough historicals of that investment.

所以我特别理解，作为小企业主，投钱做营销有多让人忐忑。

So I know how scary it is as a small business to invest in marketing.

但你必须做。

But you have to.

你非投不可，因为单靠自然流量和你的人脉，终究有局限。

You absolutely have to invest in marketing because your organic efforts, your own network is only gonna get you so far.

我相信大家都听说过购买漏斗中的漏桶问题。

I'm sure everyone has heard about the leaky bucket in the purchase funnel.

如果你还不了解，那你的目标漏斗其实就是从建立认知，到提升曝光，再到引发兴趣，最后促成转化。

If you haven't, your purpose funnel is essentially you're building awareness to build exposure, consideration down to conversion.

对吧？

Right?

而转化，正是我们所有人都在追求的目标。

And the conversion is what we're all looking for.

但在这个过程中，你总会失去一些目标客户。

But at some point, you're gonna lose somebody out of that target market.

在B2B领域，他们可能会换工作。

And B2B, they're gonna change jobs.

也可能会退休。

They're gonna retire.

他们对原来那个解决方案不再感兴趣了，因为现在都被AI的新玩意儿吸引走了。

They're not gonna be interested in that solution anymore because they're gonna look at something flashy in AI.

所以你这个漏斗一直在漏人。

So you've got this leaky bucket.

你得不断从顶部拉新进来，这一直都是营销的职责。

You always need to be bringing people in from the top, and that's what marketing has always done.

营销还能帮着提升转化底部的效果。

And marketing also helps with the bottom of the conversion.

我知道这很难，但你得先从一个基本前提开始——至少把营收的4%投到营销上，然后好好分析效果。

So I know how difficult it is, but you have to start with that general principle of, like, let's invest 4% of at least of our revenue in marketing and then analyze that.

至于数据分析的投入，必须要有可扩展性。

And then in terms of the analytics investment, it really should be scalable.

那些每年营销预算上千万的公司，光分析数据就得花上半年，毕竟数据量太大了。

So companies that are spending $10,000,000 in marketing a year, well, they're gonna have to invest a half year amount analyzing that because that's a lot of data.

像我们这样的小公司，数据分析的投入就该量力而行。

Whereas smaller companies like ours, you should invest an appropriate level in the analytics.

不该跟大公司一个标准。

It should be different than the big companies.

我觉得大家心里都藏着一些很基础的问题，但不敢提出来，因为他们觉得自己没办法从数据里挖出有用的信息。

I think that there are just basic questions that people have, and they're afraid to ask them because they don't feel equipped to actually get the insights from data.

就像你刚才提到的那样。

Kind of like what you mentioned.

倒不是说你刚才就是这么说的，但其实说白了就是，谁会真的喜欢数学呢？

Like, some people I don't think you said it this way, but kind of who likes math?

又有谁不怕数学呢？

Who's afraid of math?

我觉得这个才是更关键的问题

I think is maybe the bigger question.

很多人根本不清楚该关注哪些数据，但不管是大企业还是小企业，大家的疑问其实是一样的

They don't know what to look at often, but people have the same questions whether it's a small business or a big business.

他们都想知道，自己投的营销预算到底有没有产生效果？

They wanna know, am I having impact with my marketing budget?

还有团队花在营销上的那些时间，都花在了什么地方？

Is the time even that my team is spending on marketing, where is it going?

不过你提到的一些数据，我想特别拿出来聊聊。

But you brought up some interesting things about some data that I wanna bring out.

我觉得，除非有人真正踏上数据分析这条路，找像你和你的团队这样的顾问帮忙，不然他们做的其实全凭感觉在猜。

And I think until someone takes this analytic journey and really calls in a consultant like you and your team, Hillary, I think what they're doing is they are just trading on emotion.

对吧？

Right?

我听到这种凭感觉说话的时候，主要有两种情况。

So there's two times when I hear that emotion most strongly.

第一种是我问别人他们的转化率是多少，你猜他们会怎么回答？

The first thing is when I ask people what their conversion rate is, and, of course, guess what they say?

哎呀，只要给我们一个线索，十个里头能成九个，肯定能约上。

Oh, if you just get us a lead, nine out of 10, I mean, we book it.

这明显是瞎说。

Lie.

我马上就能查到真实数据，然后告诉他们，这根本不对。

I will immediately be able to track that data down and tell them that that is not true.

但从情感上讲，他们就是这么觉得的。

But, emotionally, they feel that.

我觉得中小企业的老板们，确实需要有这种感觉。

And I think small and medium business owners, they need to feel that.

说实话，真正意识到自己最多只能成交四五单的时候，那种感觉真的很吓人。

Honestly, it's a very scary feeling really understanding that, no, you win the deal four or five times at most.

所以他们不愿意面对你想要展示给他们的真相。

And so they don't want to see what you need to show them.

第二个重点，我觉得特别关键，你刚才提到了漏斗流失，但我现在想说的是销售完成之后的流失，也就是客户流失。

The second one, and I think it is really big, you talked about a little bit the leaky bucket, but I'm gonna talk about a leaky bucket not in the funnel over in the after it's already been sold, and that is churn.

所以对我而言，今天我们讨论的重点，客户流失其实没那么关键。

So to me, for the purpose of our conversation today, the churn is not as interesting.

我更想回头聊聊获客努力，我们的市场投入到底有没有真正见效？

I wanna come back and talk about the at bats and, like, really are we really making our marketing spend count?

但我发现，跟这些老板聊的时候，这两个地方往往是行动最多、数据最少的。

But I find that those are the two biggest places where there's the most amount of motion and least amount of data when I'm talking with these owners.

你给我简单讲讲吧。

So walk me through a little bit.

假设有个新人刚接触这个，心里想：天哪。

Let's say someone is new to this and saying, oh my gosh.

我们花这么多钱在营销上，真的得往前迈一步了。

We spend so much on marketing, and, really, we have got to take that next step.

得找像希拉里这样的人聊聊，搞清楚我们到底该关注哪些东西。

We've got to talk with someone like Hillary, and we need to start understanding what are we supposed to be looking at.

你开头提到过，大家最关心的有两个数字。

And you mentioned at the very top of the show, there's two numbers people are interested in.

你知道的。

You know?

我特别喜欢这一点。

And I love that.

其实，这事没必要搞得那么复杂。

It's like, really, this doesn't have to be overly complicated.

你想知道两件事，判断它到底有没有效果。

You want to know two things about if it's working or not.

那你会怎么对一家公司说呢？他们心里可能在想，天哪。

So what would you say to a company that is thinking, oh my gosh.

我现在都有点紧张了，听着希拉里说的话，我知道该这么做，但就是很难迈出下一步。

I'm kind of sweating right now because I'm hearing Hillary, and I'm thinking I know I need to do this, but it is hard to take that next step.

你该怎么帮人一步步理清这个过程呢？

How do you walk someone through that?

对。

Mhmm.

你总得先开始做点什么。

You have to start somewhere.

我猜最大的顾虑是，我根本不懂这些数据，完全没接触过。

So I think the biggest fear is, oh, well, I actually have no idea about any of this data.

我以前从没想过这些，因为我一直只想着怎么卖东西。

I've never thought of that because I'm just you know, like a sales mindset.

你只想着眼前，明天我能做点什么？

You're just thinking in the moment, what can I do now for tomorrow?

过去的事，谁还在乎呢？

Like, who cares about before?

在销售推广策略上，我经常听到这种说法。

And I hear about that a lot in terms of sales promotion tactics.

比如我在搞促销，不管是店内活动还是限时优惠，可昨天的事早就过去了。

Like, I'm running this promotion, whether it's in store, whether it's a limited time offer that well, that was yesterday.

现在我得琢磨下一个活动了，总是盯着下一个目标。

Now I've got to think about the next event, and you're constantly looking at the next event.

但迟早我们得停下来，回头看看历史数据，花点时间让专人帮我们整理分析。

At some point, we have to pause and look at the historicals and invest the time to have somebody go in and start to track that for us.

你我都喜欢参加行业会议，现身现场，拓展人脉。

You and I love attending conferences, showing up, networking in the industry.

这个倒是挺容易的。

Well, that's an easy one.